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Re: 100% of [surveyed] economists were dead wrong about yiel

Bob Brinker was also wrong about yields , advising listeners and subscribers over a year ago to sell intermediate term bond funds and move everything to low duration bond funds. Since then his bond fund selections have grossly underperformed the TBM.
by Jim180
Sat Oct 25, 2014 12:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% of [surveyed] economists were dead wrong about yields
Replies: 33
Views: 3621

Why did my bond funds NAV change on Columbus Day?

Forgive my ignorance, but I noticed my bond funds NAV changed on Columbus Day even though the bond market was closed. Could someone explain why? If this is a perfectly normal occurrence then what is the significance of closing the bond market on Columbus Day?
by Jim180
Mon Oct 13, 2014 6:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why did my bond funds NAV change on Columbus Day?
Replies: 16
Views: 1462

Re: Clothes Dryer drying very slowly

I agree with the others that it's probably a clogged vent, however a faulty thermostat or heating element cannot be ruled out. Those parts can be tested with a multimeter. Replacement parts can be purchased. No need for a new dryer.
by Jim180
Sun Oct 12, 2014 3:53 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Clothes Dryer drying very slowly
Replies: 24
Views: 1940

Re: Why does the stock market "always go up"? Will this pers

Because the stock market is all about the earnings of corporate America and companies will continue to grow earnings over time. Recessions occur along the way but are always followed by recoveries. Indexing most likely will always be the way to go because it's been proven that active management in m...
by Jim180
Sun Sep 07, 2014 11:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market "always go up"? Will this persist?
Replies: 42
Views: 3874

Re: MSN Article

I don't really buy into what the writer is saying. Sure, it may feel good to know a manager can move to cash while an index fund must remain fully invested but nobody can time the market consistently. A fund manager who is too defensive is going to miss a lot of upside. The fund mentioned in the art...
by Jim180
Thu Sep 04, 2014 12:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: MSN Article
Replies: 2
Views: 323

Re: Will Bill Gross beat the Total Bond Market Index?

Not sure what is available in your 401K, but Jeffrey Gundlach appears to have dethroned Bill Gross as the "King of Bonds". If I'd want to choose an actively managed fund going forward I'd rather go with Gundlach.
by Jim180
Tue Sep 02, 2014 12:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Will Bill Gross beat the Total Bond Market Index?
Replies: 57
Views: 5925

Re: Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV). Thoughts

I would definitely stay away. That ETF has a duration of 24.8 which means just a 1% increase in interest rates and you lose 24.8% in the NAV, a 2% increase in rates you lose 49.6% in NAV, etc. I don't know anyone willing to lose that much in bonds.
by Jim180
Mon Aug 25, 2014 7:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV). Thoughts?
Replies: 9
Views: 1014

Re: Summer indoor humidity levels

The humidity range you gave seems normal to me. If the unit can reach and maintain the desired indoor temperature when it's 90+ degrees outside then the size of the unit is large enough. If however your unit would run on short cycles on really hot days, then your unit would be too large. I don't thi...
by Jim180
Thu Aug 07, 2014 6:05 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Summer indoor humidity levels
Replies: 18
Views: 1227

Re: Vanguard computer security

If I remember correctly , if the "cookie" is not found you must answer security questions so even if the hacker has your password they must also have the answers to your security questions.
by Jim180
Thu Aug 07, 2014 2:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard computer security
Replies: 67
Views: 3833

Re: High Yield Bonds - Uncorrelated to Stocks and Bonds?

I think there has to be a high correlation with HY bonds and stocks because they both depend on the same thing (a growing economy). When the economy is growing stocks do well and bond defaults are low. When we are in recession stocks suffer and bond defaults are much higher. Treasuries have a negati...
by Jim180
Thu Aug 07, 2014 2:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Yield Bonds - Uncorrelated to Stocks and Bonds?
Replies: 73
Views: 5194

Re: When is a 3.75% load worth it?

I don't like the risk. The fund invests heavily in derivatives. I'd much rather have a fund that owns the common stock or bonds.
by Jim180
Wed Aug 06, 2014 12:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When is a 3.75% load worth it?
Replies: 79
Views: 5571

Re: Bond strategy resilient to rate increase

Making short term moves with bonds is marketiming and a losing strategy IMO. Bonds move at times other than Fed meetings. The bond market usually knows what the Fed is going to do even before the meetings take place. Maybe someone from the Fed will make a statement in an interview that moves bonds. ...
by Jim180
Mon Jul 21, 2014 2:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond strategy resilient to rate increase
Replies: 13
Views: 1594

Re: I was tempted to market time and didn't

You would have made 1% on Friday if you would have bought on Thursday. That means if you had $10K to invest you would have made $100. Investing $100K would have given you $1K. I wouldn't get too upset about missing such a small gain. Unless you had $500K or more to invest it's really just a drop in ...
by Jim180
Sun Jul 20, 2014 12:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I was tempted to market time and didn't
Replies: 19
Views: 1859

Re: If interest rates would ever reach double digits again

If interest is 15% and you buy some long bonds to lock in that wonderful rate, what is to stop the interest rate of rising to 20% and you get killed? If I hold the long bond to maturity I should not get killed, right? My thinking was that even if inflation is high at purchase as some suggest it cer...
by Jim180
Thu Jul 17, 2014 2:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If interest rates would ever reach double digits again
Replies: 36
Views: 3097

If interest rates would ever reach double digits again

I was interested what others would do with their investments if interest rates would ever reach double digits again like in the late 1970's and early 1980's. It would seem to me that a person could sell all stock market positions and simply buy 30 year Treasury Bonds since the interest rate in that ...
by Jim180
Thu Jul 17, 2014 12:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If interest rates would ever reach double digits again
Replies: 36
Views: 3097

Re: Best Method to Sell a U.S. Coin Collection

I'd say a lot depends on whether you have rare old coins or just common old coins. If you have anything extremely rare and valuable an auction house might be interested. If not, you could try Ebay. You want to do research and find out what they are worth, perhaps by using some coin price guides. A c...
by Jim180
Fri Jun 27, 2014 7:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best Method to Sell a U.S. Coin Collection
Replies: 13
Views: 2126

Re: Nasdaq 100 - Why not ?

A year or two ago Apple made up a huge percentage of the Nasdaq 100. I'm not sure what the percentage is now. 100 stocks seems too concentrated to me although I realize some mutual fund managers might hold as few as 20-25 stocks their funds. I much prefer VTI in the world of ETF's.
by Jim180
Wed Jun 11, 2014 12:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nasdaq 100 - Why not ?
Replies: 9
Views: 521

Re: ACA and Colonoscopy Costs

Back in January I had a Colonoscopy done. I had an office consultation before the procedure. I was charged for the office visit. In my case it was only a copay of $18. I am a retired Federal Employee so I was able to keep the same insurance I had when employed. My Gastroenterologist explained that t...
by Jim180
Wed May 21, 2014 2:55 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: ACA and Colonoscopy Costs
Replies: 6
Views: 704

Re: Home maintenance for a newbie

As for annual A/C maintenance, I would not have someone come out until it stopped cooling. I totally agree. One thing A/C techs always do at maintenance is test the refrigerant level. It sounds like a good idea but to do that he must connect his gauges to the access ports on the unit. I've heard th...
by Jim180
Mon May 19, 2014 12:48 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Home maintenance for a newbie
Replies: 19
Views: 1914

Re: Home maintenance for a newbie

It would probably be a good idea to occasionally inspect the roof (maybe once a year). If the roof is steep let a pro do it. Replacing a cracked or missing shingle now can save a more costly repair later.
by Jim180
Sun May 18, 2014 11:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Home maintenance for a newbie
Replies: 19
Views: 1914

Re: When To Buy Index Funds

If you want to move money that is already in stock funds into other stock funds, or bond funds into other bond funds, that is what is known as a "sideways" move. That can be done immediately. If you want to put some of the 50% cash into stock or bond funds you could dollar-cost average.
by Jim180
Wed Apr 09, 2014 4:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When To Buy Index Funds
Replies: 4
Views: 858

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Where's the downside protection here? The other 50% of the portfolio is in equities. What happens to the entire portfolio in a bear market? In a bear market the whole portfolio would get hit hard. Bob Brinker has so much confidence however that he thinks his marketiming indicators would tell him wh...
by Jim180
Mon Mar 31, 2014 2:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bob Brinker portfolio
Replies: 29
Views: 4360

Re: Mobile Home Insurance

I'm guessing if OP's MH was on his own property sitting on a permanent foundation they would probably insure it as a permanent structure, and replacement cost would apply. You are correct. A doublewide on a permanent foundation is considered a "Modular" home as opposed to "Mobile&quo...
by Jim180
Fri Feb 28, 2014 10:46 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mobile Home Insurance
Replies: 9
Views: 421

Re: Mobile Home Insurance

rec7 wrote:Just curious what did Mobile Home Insurance cost you? I am thinking about buying one.

My current coverage is A. Dwelling $50K, B. Other Related Structures $3,850, C. Personal Property $15,400, and D. Loss of Use $7.700.
The annual premium is $238.
by Jim180
Fri Feb 28, 2014 10:41 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mobile Home Insurance
Replies: 9
Views: 421

Re: Mobile Home Insurance

Why should they replace a mobile home with 20 years wear & tear on it with a brand new one? I imagine you could find another 20 year old one to replace yours for 38K. edit: I lived in a mobile home from 1964-68 (51 x 10 with a tip out in the living room). Bought it brand new for $4,000 in 1964....
by Jim180
Fri Feb 28, 2014 1:21 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mobile Home Insurance
Replies: 9
Views: 421

Mobile Home Insurance

I bought a doublewide mobile home that is about 20 years old. It sits on a rented lot. When trying to insure it my agent tells me I cannot purchase insurance for greater than what I payed which was $38K. I know mobile homes depreciate in value but I explained to him that if the home would be destroy...
by Jim180
Thu Feb 27, 2014 6:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mobile Home Insurance
Replies: 9
Views: 421

Re: Social Security Statement Now Online?

I get the strange message that it cannot create an account for me.
by Jim180
Thu Feb 27, 2014 1:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Social Security Statement Now Online?
Replies: 32
Views: 3572

Re: Exit Strategy

I think an exit strategy is something only really needed by someone who is trying to time the markets.The long term investor only needs to sell when re-balancing or if their investment objectives change.
by Jim180
Sun Feb 23, 2014 12:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Exit Strategy
Replies: 8
Views: 1067

Re: Wow! Jim Cramer hates passive index investing

While Cramer's world may be individual stocks, he must realize it's not a strategy for the masses. Maybe a few people are successful with such a strategy, but I'd bet for each one that succeeds, nine others fail. It's sort of like the infomercials on flipping homes. A few may make money but most don...
by Jim180
Wed Feb 12, 2014 5:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wow! Jim Cramer hates passive index investing
Replies: 52
Views: 5853

Re: Investing advice for a 14 yr old

One book that would help them learn the investment "lingo" is Wall Street Words by David L. Scott.
by Jim180
Sat Feb 08, 2014 6:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing advice for a 14 yr old
Replies: 5
Views: 348

Re: I sold all of my bonds...did I make a mistake?

Sounds like you are investing based upon emotions, and getting "whipsawed" in the process. In 2013 stocks did well, but bonds didn't. So you sold what was doing poorly to get into what was hot. Now in 2014 bonds got off to a good start, but not stocks, so you want to switch back into bonds...
by Jim180
Wed Feb 05, 2014 12:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I sold all of my bonds...did I make a mistake?
Replies: 24
Views: 3532

Re: Early Retirement Example

The 4% rule assumes a 30 year retirement. In your example since John is only 25, he is looking at a possible 50-60 year retirement. Because of that I don't think you should conclude that the 4% rule would work in your example. In fact there are some advisors who now feel that a 4% withdrawal rate is...
by Jim180
Wed Feb 05, 2014 12:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early Retirement Example
Replies: 29
Views: 3772

Re: What would you do with cash right now?

Option 2, and use index funds, not individual stocks.
by Jim180
Mon Jan 20, 2014 6:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What would you do with cash right now?
Replies: 45
Views: 3093

Re: Staying the course which watching CNBC

Remember that CNBC is just for entertainment, not serious investing. Whatever the news of the day is, it is usually forgotten very quickly. Even stories that stay around a while usually go away sometime. Remember when the Greek financial crisis was going on? The talking heads were saying every day t...
by Jim180
Sun Jan 19, 2014 4:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Staying the course which watching CNBC
Replies: 23
Views: 1938

Re: Best Buy & Target Stock

Share prices of strong companies frequently recover from an unusual event that temporarily sends their share price down. How strong Target and Best Buy are I do not know. I don't think you will get your answer here. Bogleheads prefer Mutual Funds and do not give individual stock advice. Your questio...
by Jim180
Sun Jan 19, 2014 3:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Buy & Target Stock
Replies: 8
Views: 1216

Re: Larry Kudlow bad advice on bonds

Economists are frequently wrong about their area of expertise, the economy. So why would they know anything about investing?
by Jim180
Thu Jan 16, 2014 1:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Kudlow bad advice on bonds
Replies: 52
Views: 4962

Re: 17.6 year stock market cycle

For those familiar with Bob Brinker, he has spoken of this "secular" cycle many times. He has said it can last anywhere from 8-20 years. In 2000 he announced the bear cycle was beginning. His problem was that around 2006 he said it was over, only to say in 2008 that he was wrong, that it w...
by Jim180
Thu Jan 16, 2014 1:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 17.6 year stock market cycle
Replies: 38
Views: 2698

Re: Social Security estimates if early retiring?

I got my answer the lazy way. I called SSA and a rep did it for me.
by Jim180
Sun Dec 29, 2013 5:03 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security estimates if early retiring?
Replies: 15
Views: 1591

Re: Market timing jitters

I'm apprehensive about putting such a big chunk of money into investments in one fell swoop. I'm particularly apprehensive because it's not my money, and I am entrusted to make the best decision with someone else's savings. I think the research shows that putting it in right away is good over the l...
by Jim180
Sun Dec 01, 2013 5:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Market timing jitters
Replies: 22
Views: 1906

Re: Market timing jitters

In addition to time frame, the other factor is the persons risk tolerance. For example, even in a bull market we can have a 10% correction at any time, so it could drop as soon as invested. How would the person respond to that?
by Jim180
Sun Dec 01, 2013 5:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Market timing jitters
Replies: 22
Views: 1906

Re: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?

As I cast my vote the futures are pointing higher.
by Jim180
Fri Nov 29, 2013 12:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: POLL: Black Friday market close: Green or Red?
Replies: 52
Views: 2016

Re: Would you put some of your bond money in the TBF?

The TBF is sometimes called a daily trader. It is up about 9.5% YTD if someone held it all that time. You are right about the TLT it is down about 13.5% they do not trade dollar for dollar what happened to that 4%? The TBF has a ER of about 1% but that leaves 3% unaccounted for. I'm not sure where ...
by Jim180
Thu Nov 07, 2013 12:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you put some of your bond money in the TBF?
Replies: 7
Views: 888

Re: 10 Year Treasury Note interest rate change today

That move puzzled me too. I would have thought the bond market would be pleased with no taper. The Fed vote was 9-1 in favor of no taper. Was the bond market expecting a 10-0 vote? Who knows? Nobody can figure out what moves markets sometimes.
by Jim180
Wed Oct 30, 2013 6:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Year Treasury Note interest rate change today
Replies: 5
Views: 1088

Re: Attempted Hack on my Vanguard Accounts

You can also call client services and add an "enhanced password" that you would have to provide each time you call. This would at least help from a telephone standpoint. Rather than call I wish Vanguard could send us a Security Token like Schwab. Everytime you login you enter the random n...
by Jim180
Thu Oct 24, 2013 12:06 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Attempted Hack on my Vanguard Accounts
Replies: 33
Views: 6015

Re: Why can Auto Insurers give Educational Discounts ?

After reading all the responses to my post thus far, I can't help but think of so many ways insurance companies could adjust peoples premiums if they were given access to everyone's personal records. Suppose a person takes prescription meds for mental issues such as anxiety or depression. Many of th...
by Jim180
Wed Oct 23, 2013 8:52 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why can Auto Insurers give Educational Discounts ?
Replies: 31
Views: 1365

Re: DCA on Down Days?

One problem with waiting for a down day is that you may have to analyze why it was a down day before you can act. For example did the Dow lose 100 points from normal profit-taking or was it because of some horrible economic news? If it was really bad economic news the market could continue falling f...
by Jim180
Wed Oct 23, 2013 6:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: DCA on Down Days?
Replies: 27
Views: 1814

Why can Auto Insurers give Educational Discounts ?

I recently changed my auto insurance company. My agent sent me an application to sign. On that application was personal information about me that stated I had a college degree. I called my agent and said that was wrong, I did not attend college. She then told me my premium would be a bit higher beca...
by Jim180
Wed Oct 23, 2013 5:26 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why can Auto Insurers give Educational Discounts ?
Replies: 31
Views: 1365

Re: Interest Rate 10-Year Treasury Note

In addition to the weak economic data, I would add that the appointment of Janet Yellen is another factor in the bond rally. Just a few months ago everyone thought it would be Larry Summers. Summers talked of ending QE , but Yellen is more "dovish" so therefore more likely to continue QE.
by Jim180
Wed Oct 23, 2013 4:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interest Rate 10-Year Treasury Note
Replies: 6
Views: 586

Re: Investors Business Daily...worthwhile?

A couple of years ago they ran a commercial claiming the publication's TA predicted the bear market of 07-09 and issued a "sell' signal. Can anyone verify this?
I'd also be curious as to how often their "sell" signals turn out to be false.(i.e. the market rises instead)
by Jim180
Wed Oct 23, 2013 2:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investors Business Daily...worthwhile?
Replies: 18
Views: 1096

Re: Can bonds/bond funds keep up with inflation by themselve

If you are asking if there is any way to build wealth with bonds I think the answer is no. Probably at best you can only break even after taxes and inflation over the long term. The only way would be to have perfect marketiming skills. For example if a person would buy junk bonds at the beginning of...
by Jim180
Tue Oct 22, 2013 5:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can bonds/bond funds keep up with inflation by themselves?
Replies: 14
Views: 1532
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