Search found 432 matches

by Jebediah
Thu Jun 25, 2015 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook
Replies: 108
Views: 7978

Re: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook

As you can see from this heat map, there are many periods in which US stocks have returned zip for over two decades. So, it wouldn't be extraordinary for that to happen over the next 2-3 decades. Plan accordingly. I'm not buying it. The chart includes an incredibly vague disclaimer "Includes d...
by Jebediah
Thu Jun 25, 2015 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook
Replies: 108
Views: 7978

Re: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook

If you believe the QSPIX will will be nearly uncorrelated with stocks and bonds going forward it is useful as a hedge... You need more than low correlation to make something "useful." There are many things that have low correlation. For example, actual currency--money under the mattress--...
by Jebediah
Sat Jun 20, 2015 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum across time and asset classes
Replies: 40
Views: 5099

Re: Momentum across time and asset classes

But with momentum, what I am saying is that--for three real-world mutual-fund implementations of "momentum," I did not even see the higher return. You are right, current momentum offerings (AQR, iShares) have implementation problems- negative alphas and negative value loadings. I wouldn't...
by Jebediah
Tue Jun 16, 2015 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 378
Views: 31821

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

As someone else said on this or earlier thread, it's more like multiplicity than conceptual complication. They are using simple instruments (no options AFAIK, just futures, cash stocks and other simple cash underlyings). It's true there are pretty many (factors, markets) but that also cuts against ...
by Jebediah
Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum across time and asset classes
Replies: 40
Views: 5099

Re: Momentum across time and asset classes

Nisi,

Your charts are often interesting if a bit cherry picked. I wonder what you make of this chart. This is small value VS S&P500 starting in 1993-- right after Fama and French published their 1992 paper.

Image
by Jebediah
Sun Jun 14, 2015 12:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 378
Views: 31821

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Remember that from a fund managers point of view, the objective is not to get clients the highest possible return. Their objective is to increase their own income. The fund manager (can be one person, or multiple people) has their own assets. To the extent that the idea is so good that can provide ...
by Jebediah
Thu Jun 11, 2015 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why does Jack Bogle have no international funds
Replies: 69
Views: 6667

Re: Why does Jack Bogle have no international funds

I've no idea what'll actually happen, but I do know two things:

1) expected returns on US stocks are very low (some say zero) for the next 10 years.
2) global is more diversified than local.
by Jebediah
Thu Jun 11, 2015 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why does Jack Bogle have no international funds
Replies: 69
Views: 6667

Re: Why does Jack Bogle have no international funds

Twins Fan wrote:... I'm not going for optimum returns, or worried about having the highest preforming asset class, or whatever is cool at the time to have 5% of one's portfolio in. I will take good returns and be just fine with it...


What about BAD returns? Fine with that? If so, you're all set!
by Jebediah
Wed Jun 10, 2015 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITs - why the volatility?
Replies: 44
Views: 3877

Re: REITs - why the volatility?

There is too much not to like about REITS - very high vol - low expected return (from here) - more or less moves in step with stocks - tax inefficient, takes up your IRA space Hard to fathom owning REITs at these levels. Think about it: a levered basket of real estate yielding 3%? Would you buy a r...
by Jebediah
Wed Jun 10, 2015 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITs - why the volatility?
Replies: 44
Views: 3877

Re: REITs - why the volatility?

There is too much not to like about REITS - very high vol - low expected return (from here) - more or less moves in step with stocks - tax inefficient, takes up your IRA space Hard to fathom owning REITs at these levels. Think about it: a levered basket of real estate yielding 3%? Would you buy a re...
by Jebediah
Wed Jun 10, 2015 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITs - why the volatility?
Replies: 44
Views: 3877

Re: REITs - why the volatility?

dbr wrote:The Rick Ferri 30 year forecast lists REITS as an asset class at 7% return and 19% standard deviation of return.


Where does he get this? The yield at the time of the forecast was 3%. Shouldn't the expected return be 3%?
by Jebediah
Thu Jun 04, 2015 11:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio feedback request
Replies: 11
Views: 798

Re: Portfolio feedback request

say EM underperforms for 15 years. How shocked will you be? Usually when people think they ought to overweight EM it's because they imagine it's some kind of free ticket to better returns. If you really need more risk then you're better off looking into using margin or levered ETFs, not a portfolio ...
by Jebediah
Thu Jun 04, 2015 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio feedback request
Replies: 11
Views: 798

Re: Portfolio feedback request

simplify the allocation. VOO, VWO, and VPL are unnecessary. Put the entire 401k into the Ex-US fund. Then split the Roth between VTI, VSS, and VB in whatever proportion you fancy.
by Jebediah
Thu May 28, 2015 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: All cash now ($1M) - need advice on entering this lofty market
Replies: 96
Views: 9878

Re: All cash now ($1M) - need advice on entering this lofty market

Ability to take risk... Low. Don't have enough money/time to weather large or sustained losses. Need to take risk... Low. You have just enough to get by without it. Willingness to take risk... Low - medium. You are afraid of drawdowns. Plus the fact that stocks are very expensive...makes me wonder w...
by Jebediah
Sun May 24, 2015 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with 5M?
Replies: 93
Views: 15915

Re: What to do with 5M?

If you went 100% 30 year TIPS ladder you could draw 60K (real) plus the coupons every year for the next 70 years and still have 800K (real) left. Coupons will fluctuate, but right now at about 40K/yr. So that's about 100K real a year (plus or minus), pre-tax, for life. I only point this out because ...
by Jebediah
Sun May 24, 2015 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with 5M?
Replies: 93
Views: 15915

Re: What to do with 5M?

Curious, why not at least 80% in 30 year TIPS? Are your goals to increase wealth or preserve capital?
by Jebediah
Sun May 24, 2015 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations
Replies: 64
Views: 4990

Re: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations

Of course a dividend is a component of return. If it wasn't it wouldn't be a dividend. It would be a return of capital. Dividends are essentially return of capital. They are fully distinct from a company's revenues/profits/return, but (as we see here) often get conflated with returns because it's m...
by Jebediah
Sat May 23, 2015 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations
Replies: 64
Views: 4990

Re: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations

What I am saying is that dividends matter. Why do they matter? I can't think of any good reason, honestly. Many folks disagree with that and I think we can agree to disagree. But again, John Bogle says that dividends are an important part of the return from stocks. When projecting future expected r...
by Jebediah
Sat May 23, 2015 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations
Replies: 64
Views: 4990

Re: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations

Do you really think I believe in a "dividend fairy" that magically generates cash out of thin air? You have to give us more credit than that. I hope not, but there seems to be a lot of confusion out there between total return and ROI (which leads to clearly false ideas like "protecti...
by Jebediah
Sat May 23, 2015 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations
Replies: 64
Views: 4990

Re: another look at dividend paying stocks and valuations

Dividends have always been an important component of the returns you get from stocks... He saw dividends as an important component of return and when reinvested, a protection against bear markets. Divs are not returns. As Larry says in the opening sentence: Despite the fact that traditional financi...
by Jebediah
Fri May 22, 2015 12:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career Advice: Follow "Passion" or Follow the Money?
Replies: 73
Views: 4704

Re: Career Advice: Follow "Passion" or Follow the Money?

I didn't read through all the details of option 2, but from the way you set it up your choices are doing the work you like/love for 100k a year vs doing something else for 180k a year. Are you serious? Listen dude, you know how much artists who follow their "passion" make ? They make ZERO....
by Jebediah
Wed May 20, 2015 2:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Parks to visit between TX and PA?
Replies: 23
Views: 815

Re: Parks to visit between TX and PA?

Make a b-line to NC/Virginia/West Virginia and then start playing around. Hike the state parks, parkways/scenic drives, and raft or canoe the New River. Also, plenty of civil war sites. Same scenery as Smokey Mtn Nat Park sans the crowds and tourist junk. If you really have the time, drive out to so...
by Jebediah
Wed May 20, 2015 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [Rehab My Portfolio Bogleheads! ]
Replies: 3
Views: 344

Re: REHAB MY PORTFOLIO BOGLEHEADS!

Your portfolio is a disaster. Sell everything and follow this:
http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Three-fund_portfolio
by Jebediah
Sat May 09, 2015 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any ideas for the future of my measly little portfolio?
Replies: 18
Views: 2934

Re: Any ideas for the future of my measly little portfolio?

OP, what are your annual expenses? You really need to know this. You guess 25K, but guessing isn't good enough. Use mint.com for a year or do whatever you have to do to nail this down. From there you can truly plan. Consolidate into a single balanced fund. There is no diversification in having sever...
by Jebediah
Sat May 09, 2015 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: part two of Facts and fiction on value investing bl
Replies: 70
Views: 4769

Re: part two of Facts and fiction on value investing bl

JoMoney, that's called cherry-picking.

Image
by Jebediah
Sat May 09, 2015 2:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: much ado about coasting (through life)
Replies: 256
Views: 34402

Re: much ado about coasting (through life)

If you end up with too big of a gap between your last job and your next one, you may find it very difficult to get another job of any kind. It is similar to a house that has been on the market a long time - the assumption is that there must be something wrong with it. You will be asked to explain a...
by Jebediah
Sat May 09, 2015 3:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: part two of Facts and fiction on value investing bl
Replies: 70
Views: 4769

Re: part two of Facts and fiction on value investing bl

JoMoney, you're a funny guy. 1972-2014 Large Growth: CAGR = 9.67. Sharpe = 0.32. Small Value: CAGR = 13.36. Sharpe = 0.50. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&LargeCapGrowth1=100&portfolio3=Custom&startYear=1972&portfolio2=Custom&portfolio1=Cus...
by Jebediah
Fri May 08, 2015 7:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: part two of Facts and fiction on value investing bl
Replies: 70
Views: 4769

Re: part two of Facts and fiction on value investing bl

What I'm wondering is this: are risk-adjusted returns just a proxy for absolute returns? No, they are absolute returns / SD. So, port A and port B can have the same absolute returns but very different risk-adjusted returns, due to differences in SD. Therefore, not a proxy. If so, what does it reall...
by Jebediah
Fri May 08, 2015 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: part two of Facts and fiction on value investing bl
Replies: 70
Views: 4769

Re: part two of Facts and fiction on value investing bl

Even if the value factor is a factor, the only reason to overweight value stocks would be to increase risk-adjusted return. Otherwise, why bother? But if the premium is simply efficiently priced compensation for risk, then you are not gaining anything. You need not even worry about whether value is...
by Jebediah
Fri May 08, 2015 6:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: much ado about coasting (through life)
Replies: 256
Views: 34402

Re: much ado about coasting (through life)

If you end up with too big of a gap between your last job and your next one, you may find it very difficult to get another job of any kind. It is similar to a house that has been on the market a long time - the assumption is that there must be something wrong with it. You will be asked to explain a...
by Jebediah
Wed Mar 25, 2015 1:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help w/ adult child hard-wired for poor financial decisions?
Replies: 45
Views: 5298

Re: Help w/ adult child hard-wired for poor financial decisi

What's frightening absent from your post is any mention of how she feels about her life. Maybe she likes it the way it is. All that matters is whether or not she approves of her own situation; your approval or disapproval is irrelevant. The best thing you can do for her is stop judging her under the...
by Jebediah
Tue Mar 17, 2015 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy a rental property in this market ?
Replies: 42
Views: 3182

Re: Buy a rental property in this market ?

Well, let me tell you about my research. I looked thru Zillow and found good properties (high rent, low crime and in good location). I spoke to few brokers who listed the house and this seemed consistent: 1) This is a great house/apartment (ofcourse) 2) You need atleast 25% downpayment 3) They can ...
by Jebediah
Fri Mar 13, 2015 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to create a 3% return portfolio?
Replies: 52
Views: 5925

Re: How to create a 3% return portfolio?

Again..disagree.. I have multi family , commercial and single family so I know of what I speak. Lawsuits- there are many issues which arise which are not covered such as some forms of water damage , black mold and the like. College town- I have property 3 blocks from U of Arizona. Renting to studen...
by Jebediah
Tue Mar 10, 2015 11:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 25504

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

HomerJ,

The 5 year treasury went from 3.36 on 1/1/2004 to 3.45 on 12/31/2007, with a lot of volatility inbetween. So I do not think your chart accurately depicts the effect of a rising rate environment on TBM.
by Jebediah
Tue Mar 10, 2015 8:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Will you buy an Apple Watch?
Replies: 398
Views: 31637

Re: Will you buy an Apple Watch?

If it were cool I might, but it is not cool. Casio is cool.

Also, interesting that people think that phones and watches are somehow necessary for running. I am a competitive runner, and use neither. I use legs.
by Jebediah
Tue Mar 10, 2015 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to create a 3% return portfolio?
Replies: 52
Views: 5925

Re: How to create a 3% return portfolio?

[OT comments removed by admin LadyGeek]
by Jebediah
Tue Mar 10, 2015 2:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads with Rental Income
Replies: 32
Views: 2965

Re: Bogleheads with Rental Income

1- don't borrow money
2- hire management
3- buy in a mid-cola, economically stable town
4- find a good agent

Do these and you're golden. No stress, no job. If your agent and management are good, you shouldn't ever have to set foot in the place.
by Jebediah
Tue Mar 10, 2015 2:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to create a 3% return portfolio?
Replies: 52
Views: 5925

Re: How to create a 3% return portfolio?

Use 1/4 to 1/2 of the bond money to buy a rental property. You will need a trusted agent to get you the right place. You should be able to boost your overall portfolio returns quite comfortably assuming you will be paying cash (no mortgage). Hire a management company (also recommended by the agent)...
by Jebediah
Mon Mar 09, 2015 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to create a 3% return portfolio?
Replies: 52
Views: 5925

Re: How to create a 3% return portfolio?

Use 1/4 to 1/2 of the bond money to buy a rental property. You will need a trusted agent to get you the right place. You should be able to boost your overall portfolio returns quite comfortably assuming you will be paying cash (no mortgage). Hire a management company (also recommended by the agent) ...
by Jebediah
Sat Mar 07, 2015 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can my friend retire at 30 with 800K saved?
Replies: 19
Views: 2541

Re: Can my friend retire at 30 with 800K saved?

tallgirl1204 wrote: (See the discussion also active right now on Mr Money Mustache.).


link, please
by Jebediah
Sat Mar 07, 2015 2:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can my friend retire at 30 with 800K saved?
Replies: 19
Views: 2541

Re: Can my friend retire at 30 with 800K saved?

But if she is just saying "800k is a lot of money and I'm sure it will work out somehow," then I would gently suggest to her that hope is not a strategy for success. I wonder if that's the case. If I were 30 and had 800K, I would think I was "rich" and that I could just kick bac...
by Jebediah
Sat Mar 07, 2015 2:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can my friend retire at 30 with 800K saved?
Replies: 19
Views: 2541

Re: Can my friend retire at 30 with 800K saved?

It all depends on her spending habits. If she "gets it" wrt frugality and has financial savvy, then I'd say yes she can go for it (being a SAHM). For now, this dude is providing her "salary" and even if we (prudently) assume that his subsidy will eventually end, at that point in ...
by Jebediah
Fri Mar 06, 2015 12:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 Costs Investors Must Control
Replies: 61
Views: 6007

Re: 3 Costs Investors Must Control

That cost triangle graphic is hilarious.
by Jebediah
Wed Feb 18, 2015 11:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey Lashes Out at His Financial Critics
Replies: 89
Views: 10918

Re: Dave Ramsey Lashes Out at His Financial Critics

Here's a good one where he explains how the bond market is not substantially less volatile than the stock market. Holy cow, this guy is setting up his flock for complete investing disaster. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRtFDvGORQk It's actually hard for me to find such a graph. Here is one showi...
by Jebediah
Wed Feb 18, 2015 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey Lashes Out at His Financial Critics
Replies: 89
Views: 10918

Re: Dave Ramsey Lashes Out at His Financial Critics

Here's a good one where he explains how the bond market is not substantially less volatile than the stock market. Holy cow, this guy is setting up his flock for complete investing disaster.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRtFDvGORQk
by Jebediah
Tue Feb 17, 2015 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Over the long-run, are there any poor-performing sectors?
Replies: 13
Views: 1095

Re: Over the long-run, are there any poor-performing sectors

I think REITs are known to perform poorly long-term.
by Jebediah
Tue Feb 17, 2015 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey Lashes Out at His Financial Critics
Replies: 89
Views: 10918

Re: Dave Ramsey Lashes Out at His Financial Critics

People here are giving him too much credit for telling people to get out of debt. Isn't that advice rather obvious? This guy is a con man. He lies to his audience about returns and then steals from them by recommending loaded funds and then taking a cut. Add to that arrogant and childish, calling pe...
by Jebediah
Wed Oct 01, 2014 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey says asset allocation does not work
Replies: 86
Views: 8024

Re: Dave Ramsey says asset allocation does not work

stemikger wrote:
For the record, I'm not a huge fan of Dave Ramsey, but his advice for getting out of debt is pretty solid.


I don't agree. The advice to "get out of debt" is so ubiquitous, old, and obvious that it should be free. Anyone who sells the idea or takes credit for it is a charlatan.
by Jebediah
Wed Oct 01, 2014 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation market timing strategy inspired by John B
Replies: 43
Views: 3933

Re: Asset allocation market timing strategy inspired by John

Any argument about market timing strategies, by Bogle or anyone else, runs into the argument equivalent of a wall: how come tactical asset allocation funds do so poorly, the vast majority outperformed by a simple balanced index with the same risk profile. In my opinion, the wall wins. If people wit...

Go to advanced search