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Re: Help w/ adult child hard-wired for poor financial decisi

What's frightening absent from your post is any mention of how she feels about her life. Maybe she likes it the way it is. All that matters is whether or not she approves of her own situation; your approval or disapproval is irrelevant. The best thing you can do for her is stop judging her under the...
by Jebediah
Wed Mar 25, 2015 1:02 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help w/ adult child hard-wired for poor financial decisions?
Replies: 45
Views: 4716

Re: Buy a rental property in this market ?

Well, let me tell you about my research. I looked thru Zillow and found good properties (high rent, low crime and in good location). I spoke to few brokers who listed the house and this seemed consistent: 1) This is a great house/apartment (ofcourse) 2) You need atleast 25% downpayment 3) They can ...
by Jebediah
Tue Mar 17, 2015 10:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy a rental property in this market ?
Replies: 42
Views: 2917

Re: How to create a 3% return portfolio?

Again..disagree.. I have multi family , commercial and single family so I know of what I speak. Lawsuits- there are many issues which arise which are not covered such as some forms of water damage , black mold and the like. College town- I have property 3 blocks from U of Arizona. Renting to studen...
by Jebediah
Fri Mar 13, 2015 10:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to create a 3% return portfolio?
Replies: 52
Views: 5525

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

HomerJ,

The 5 year treasury went from 3.36 on 1/1/2004 to 3.45 on 12/31/2007, with a lot of volatility inbetween. So I do not think your chart accurately depicts the effect of a rising rate environment on TBM.
by Jebediah
Tue Mar 10, 2015 11:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 23286

Re: Will you buy an Apple Watch?

If it were cool I might, but it is not cool. Casio is cool.

Also, interesting that people think that phones and watches are somehow necessary for running. I am a competitive runner, and use neither. I use legs.
by Jebediah
Tue Mar 10, 2015 8:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Will you buy an Apple Watch?
Replies: 351
Views: 20934

Re: How to create a 3% return portfolio?

[OT comments removed by admin LadyGeek]
by Jebediah
Tue Mar 10, 2015 1:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to create a 3% return portfolio?
Replies: 52
Views: 5525

Re: Bogleheads with Rental Income

1- don't borrow money
2- hire management
3- buy in a mid-cola, economically stable town
4- find a good agent

Do these and you're golden. No stress, no job. If your agent and management are good, you shouldn't ever have to set foot in the place.
by Jebediah
Tue Mar 10, 2015 2:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads with Rental Income
Replies: 32
Views: 2742

Re: How to create a 3% return portfolio?

Use 1/4 to 1/2 of the bond money to buy a rental property. You will need a trusted agent to get you the right place. You should be able to boost your overall portfolio returns quite comfortably assuming you will be paying cash (no mortgage). Hire a management company (also recommended by the agent)...
by Jebediah
Tue Mar 10, 2015 2:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to create a 3% return portfolio?
Replies: 52
Views: 5525

Re: How to create a 3% return portfolio?

Use 1/4 to 1/2 of the bond money to buy a rental property. You will need a trusted agent to get you the right place. You should be able to boost your overall portfolio returns quite comfortably assuming you will be paying cash (no mortgage). Hire a management company (also recommended by the agent) ...
by Jebediah
Mon Mar 09, 2015 5:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to create a 3% return portfolio?
Replies: 52
Views: 5525

Re: Can my friend retire at 30 with 800K saved?

tallgirl1204 wrote: (See the discussion also active right now on Mr Money Mustache.).


link, please
by Jebediah
Sat Mar 07, 2015 3:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can my friend retire at 30 with 800K saved?
Replies: 19
Views: 2391

Re: Can my friend retire at 30 with 800K saved?

But if she is just saying "800k is a lot of money and I'm sure it will work out somehow," then I would gently suggest to her that hope is not a strategy for success. I wonder if that's the case. If I were 30 and had 800K, I would think I was "rich" and that I could just kick bac...
by Jebediah
Sat Mar 07, 2015 2:56 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can my friend retire at 30 with 800K saved?
Replies: 19
Views: 2391

Re: Can my friend retire at 30 with 800K saved?

It all depends on her spending habits. If she "gets it" wrt frugality and has financial savvy, then I'd say yes she can go for it (being a SAHM). For now, this dude is providing her "salary" and even if we (prudently) assume that his subsidy will eventually end, at that point in ...
by Jebediah
Sat Mar 07, 2015 2:48 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can my friend retire at 30 with 800K saved?
Replies: 19
Views: 2391

Re: 3 Costs Investors Must Control

That cost triangle graphic is hilarious.
by Jebediah
Fri Mar 06, 2015 12:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 Costs Investors Must Control
Replies: 61
Views: 5491

Re: Dave Ramsey Lashes Out at His Financial Critics

Here's a good one where he explains how the bond market is not substantially less volatile than the stock market. Holy cow, this guy is setting up his flock for complete investing disaster. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRtFDvGORQk It's actually hard for me to find such a graph. Here is one showi...
by Jebediah
Wed Feb 18, 2015 11:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey Lashes Out at His Financial Critics
Replies: 89
Views: 10039

Re: Dave Ramsey Lashes Out at His Financial Critics

Here's a good one where he explains how the bond market is not substantially less volatile than the stock market. Holy cow, this guy is setting up his flock for complete investing disaster.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRtFDvGORQk
by Jebediah
Wed Feb 18, 2015 8:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey Lashes Out at His Financial Critics
Replies: 89
Views: 10039

Re: Over the long-run, are there any poor-performing sectors

I think REITs are known to perform poorly long-term.
by Jebediah
Tue Feb 17, 2015 10:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Over the long-run, are there any poor-performing sectors?
Replies: 13
Views: 1010

Re: Dave Ramsey Lashes Out at His Financial Critics

People here are giving him too much credit for telling people to get out of debt. Isn't that advice rather obvious? This guy is a con man. He lies to his audience about returns and then steals from them by recommending loaded funds and then taking a cut. Add to that arrogant and childish, calling pe...
by Jebediah
Tue Feb 17, 2015 9:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey Lashes Out at His Financial Critics
Replies: 89
Views: 10039

Re: Dave Ramsey says asset allocation does not work

stemikger wrote:
For the record, I'm not a huge fan of Dave Ramsey, but his advice for getting out of debt is pretty solid.


I don't agree. The advice to "get out of debt" is so ubiquitous, old, and obvious that it should be free. Anyone who sells the idea or takes credit for it is a charlatan.
by Jebediah
Wed Oct 01, 2014 2:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey says asset allocation does not work
Replies: 86
Views: 7862

Re: Asset allocation market timing strategy inspired by John

Any argument about market timing strategies, by Bogle or anyone else, runs into the argument equivalent of a wall: how come tactical asset allocation funds do so poorly, the vast majority outperformed by a simple balanced index with the same risk profile. In my opinion, the wall wins. If people wit...
by Jebediah
Wed Oct 01, 2014 1:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation market timing strategy inspired by John B
Replies: 43
Views: 3761

Re: Holding Cash because Tried to time Market

OP-
Realize that guys/gals like Anakin will have even better reasons not to buy in after the crash.
by Jebediah
Thu Sep 18, 2014 12:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Holding Cash because Tried to time Market
Replies: 78
Views: 6859

Re: The boglehead way to buy furniture

Buy yourself an Eames chair and matching ottoman from the pre-1990s when they were made with rosewood shells. You'll pay $2500-4000 for a good/great set and if you decide to sell it in 20 years you'll get back every penny you paid. Plus, you'll have a classic. I own two of them and love them. Buy c...
by Jebediah
Tue Sep 16, 2014 5:56 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The boglehead way to buy furniture
Replies: 56
Views: 5618

Re: John Hussman, smart guy, should you listen to his foreca

guys guys,arent u being too harsh on john hussman?this childish rebuking of facts and intellect has to stop.it is a shameful behaviour almost reminiscent of religious folks and believers of creationism.......its almost like u guys are afraid of intelligence and masterful analysis and brilliant insi...
by Jebediah
Tue Sep 16, 2014 1:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Hussman, smart guy, should you listen to his forecasts
Replies: 76
Views: 8876

Re: Visit to SFO Area - Dining

I looked at the other thread and I just have to add: DON'T go to the Stinking Rose. It's a tourist gimmick, terrible food.
by Jebediah
Wed Sep 10, 2014 5:05 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Visit to SFO Area - Dining
Replies: 14
Views: 1172

Re: Visit to SFO Area - Dining

There are so many options it's almost an impossible question. Just make sure that you get out of Fisherman's Wharf/Marina/North Beach and into the non-touristy neighborhoods, use yelp. Forget seafood, Italian, and Chinese. Think taqueria (in SF), taco truck (in Oakland), Vietnamese, German, Indian, ...
by Jebediah
Wed Sep 10, 2014 4:20 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Visit to SFO Area - Dining
Replies: 14
Views: 1172

Re: Age in Stocks: Should you have a Reverse Glidepath?

The alternative strategies considered here are more likely to surprise investors with a bigger drop than lifecycle strategies by the end of an investor’s working life. But, critically important, this potential higher drop should be more than offset by earlier larger gains. In other words, the bette...
by Jebediah
Mon Sep 01, 2014 2:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Age in Stocks: Should you have a Reverse Glidepath?
Replies: 21
Views: 1553

Re: "Absolute Return" Using Index Funds?

What "different source" is that, exactly? I don't see any "other" on this chart. Alpha. However, in reality "the source" could be alpha and/or "alternative betas" such as value, mom, quality, bab (as Packer said). matjen: I agree seems fair to call QSPIX an a...
by Jebediah
Sun Aug 31, 2014 8:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Absolute Return" Using Index Funds?
Replies: 18
Views: 2255

Re: What's the Market Neutral fund good for?

Grok, I like the way you're thinking here.

Are you (or anyone else) holding this in taxable? I notice that for 5 years or so the fund has been squeaky clean re distributions. Would it be remiss to count on more of that going forward?

Anyone have a custodian willing to waive the 250K minimum?
by Jebediah
Sun Aug 31, 2014 2:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's the Market Neutral fund good for?
Replies: 47
Views: 6177

Re: "Absolute Return" Using Index Funds?

The Vanguard Market Neutral fund is an excellent offering, definitely worth considering. From Morningstar: -- This fund was launched in 2004, but investors should focus on this fund’s track record since Vanguard took over sole management of the fund in late 2010. From that point, the fund's 4.55% an...
by Jebediah
Sun Aug 31, 2014 1:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Absolute Return" Using Index Funds?
Replies: 18
Views: 2255

Re: Bridgeway Omni SCV (BOTSX) vs PXSV

RZV saw a -72% drawdown in 08-09. It's average momentum load is -0.56 and it has reached -1.5 on a few occasions. It's value load is all over the place: currently -0.18. 150 holdings in microcap is asking for trouble.
by Jebediah
Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bridgeway Omni SCV (BOTSX) vs PXSV
Replies: 33
Views: 2951

Re: Bridgeway Omni SCV (BOTSX) vs PXSV

RZV has similar size and value loads, but also has two problems that make it a no-go, in my opinion. 1) Only 150 holdings. 2) Really bad negative momentum. I mean really bad. Look at how it performed in 2008. It's the last small value fund I would consider owning.
by Jebediah
Wed Aug 20, 2014 8:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bridgeway Omni SCV (BOTSX) vs PXSV
Replies: 33
Views: 2951

Re: When did you hear of Bill Miller and Legg Mason Value Tr

1999 was when my broker was doing backflips for this guy. It's incredible how bad he is. Take a look at his go-anywhere, best-ideas fund, Legg Mason Opportunity Trust.

Return since inception: 5.6%
SD: 40.6%
Worst drawdown: -78.1% :shock:
by Jebediah
Wed Aug 20, 2014 3:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When did you hear of Bill Miller and Legg Mason Value Trust?
Replies: 32
Views: 2566

Re: three reading recommendations

Larry

Regarding Montier's book you say "Montier believes that style rotation is the key to maximizing returns." Can you say more about what that means?
by Jebediah
Wed Aug 13, 2014 3:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: three reading recommendations
Replies: 11
Views: 1922

Re: three reading recommendations

Thanks Larry. I've put The little book of behavioral investing : how not to be your own worst enemy by James Montier on reserve at my local library. They did not have Behavioural Finance: Insights into Irrational Minds and Markets . Hopefully this "little book" version will still be a pro...
by Jebediah
Wed Aug 13, 2014 1:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: three reading recommendations
Replies: 11
Views: 1922

Re: Dave Ramsey still defending 12% and still angry at "nerd

Some posters seem to think that Ramsey is a very bad person. Very Bad People damage the people around them. Ramsey helps the people around him. The Very Bad Person hypothesis is weak. No, the Very Bad Person hypothesis is strong. DR gives horrible advice regarding SWRs that has serious ill conseque...
by Jebediah
Sun Aug 10, 2014 10:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey still defending 12% and still angry at "nerds"
Replies: 194
Views: 25101

Re: Prove adding SV will lower the risk, given the same E(r)

Again, thanks for the quick reply. Can you address the following issues of SV and your pro argument that I can think of? 1. SV may have low beta (market risk) but high E(r). But as long as size and value are risk factors, SV will carry higher risks in these dimensions. IMO, not addressing these ris...
by Jebediah
Sat Aug 02, 2014 11:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Prove adding SV will lower the risk, given the same E(r)
Replies: 79
Views: 4376

Re: Profiting from Unprofitable Companies

Yeah that "bottoming out" of DFSVX has been a real nightmare for its disenchanted investors.

20 years to date: growth of 10K, Sharpe Ratio
DFSVX: $106 K , 0.55
VFINX: $61 K , 0.42
by Jebediah
Fri Aug 01, 2014 11:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Profiting from Unprofitable Companies
Replies: 22
Views: 2168

Re: Profiting from Unprofitable Companies

If that's all you see then sorry but your observational capacity is lacking. Have a look at the Fama-French data or the Credit Suisse yearbooks or read Asness's Value and Momentum Everywhere. Or ignore the history if you wish, but the data is what it is. We are beyond the question of whether these p...
by Jebediah
Fri Aug 01, 2014 8:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Profiting from Unprofitable Companies
Replies: 22
Views: 2168

Re: Profiting from Unprofitable Companies

JoMoney, You said: We have 30 years of out of sample real-world performance of DFA's attempt at a fund using a single strategy that looked good over the historical back-testing, but the out-performance certainly wasn't persistent. --- I take it from this statement that you are interested in whether ...
by Jebediah
Fri Aug 01, 2014 1:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Profiting from Unprofitable Companies
Replies: 22
Views: 2168

Re: Profiting from Unprofitable Companies

JoMoney, as usual, tried to mislead by cherry picking the start date of his chart.

Here is what DFSCX since inception vs VFINX looks like (keep in mind it's a log scale):

Image

Growth of 10K
DFSCX: $430K
VFINX: $353K
by Jebediah
Thu Jul 31, 2014 9:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Profiting from Unprofitable Companies
Replies: 22
Views: 2168

Re: a close look at value and momentum

Worked in the historical data, worked in the "literature", but as we see with Asness' fund, it simply didn't work in reality. Doesn't that bother you just a little? Working = tracking the momentum index. Has nothing to do with SP500 index. The SP500 and MCSI Momentum indexes are different...
by Jebediah
Sat Jul 19, 2014 4:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a close look at value and momentum
Replies: 259
Views: 19995

Re: a close look at value and momentum

I'm all about this factor investing stuff. But "Smart beta" and "Smart Beta 2.0" (seriously, I saw that yesterday) make me want to set my clothes on fire and hide out in a three fund portfolio for the next 10 years. If I were Larry it would drive me nuts.
by Jebediah
Fri Jul 18, 2014 11:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a close look at value and momentum
Replies: 259
Views: 19995

Re: But why not 100% stock index fund?

HenryPorter wrote:The funny part now is I look at some of my index funds and see they have a 2% yield and I am partially comforted. At least some part of the stock portfolio can compete with a multi-year CD or plain vanilla bond fund w/o any heavy lifting.


Henry, stock dividends don't work that way.
by Jebediah
Wed Jul 16, 2014 12:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: But why not 100% stock index fund?
Replies: 76
Views: 8195

Re: a close look at value and momentum

Longinvest, I matched up DFSVX and VTSAX to their closest K French portfolios selecting from his finer-grained 5x5 portfolio set (instead of his 3x2 "asset class" portfolios). I matched them via correlations of annual returns, correlations were around .98 and .94 if I recall; not an academ...
by Jebediah
Mon Jul 14, 2014 10:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a close look at value and momentum
Replies: 259
Views: 19995

Re: a close look at value and momentum

It is interesting to note that your SV/LB TellTale chart significantly overstates the advantage of SV, when compared to the real-life chart of DFSVX/VTSMX I showed in http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=142483&start=100#p2118876 (which already overstates the returns of DFSV...
by Jebediah
Mon Jul 14, 2014 6:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a close look at value and momentum
Replies: 259
Views: 19995

Re: a close look at value and momentum

It's a much bigger leap to pretend they would have performed similarly had people actually invested in such an index. The fact that there are few funds representing this style of investing going back pre-'90s is a big deal to me. Morningstar's longer term benchmark data for funds that matched the S...
by Jebediah
Mon Jul 14, 2014 5:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a close look at value and momentum
Replies: 259
Views: 19995

Re: a close look at value and momentum

To follow up on the previous thought (then I'll leave it alone), some Telltale charts of SV vs SG and Large Blend... Against SG there is little to no period dependency. Against LB there is a kind of period dependency, but it is an alternating of UP periods and FLAT periods. No real SV down periods. ...
by Jebediah
Mon Jul 14, 2014 5:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a close look at value and momentum
Replies: 259
Views: 19995

Re: a close look at value and momentum

Here are a few visualizations of French's data, wanting to test the idea of period-dependency of the Small value and Value premia. The premia appear to be consistently positive (albeit noisy) on rolling 10, 15, and 20 year horizons, gaining consistency as the horizon grows. LV is somewhat more perio...
by Jebediah
Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a close look at value and momentum
Replies: 259
Views: 19995

Re: a close look at value and momentum

From the French data, growth of $1, 1926 to present:

SG: $1594
SV: $201,836
LG: $2526
LV: $18,570
by Jebediah
Sun Jul 13, 2014 10:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a close look at value and momentum
Replies: 259
Views: 19995

Re: a close look at value and momentum

JoMoney wrote: Depending on the time period you look at, owning growth stocks has beaten the market.


Can you demonstrate with some data?
by Jebediah
Sun Jul 13, 2014 1:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a close look at value and momentum
Replies: 259
Views: 19995
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