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Re: Hussman: Now is one of the worst times in history to inv

I'm just going to do the opposite of what the forecasters are predicting.

Given that they are wrong most of the time, doing the opposite should yield the best results.
by InvestorNewb
Tue May 14, 2013 2:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hussman: Now is one of the worst times in history to invest
Replies: 51
Views: 6397

Re: Just One Stock. What do you think?

What is the value of the stock?
by InvestorNewb
Mon May 13, 2013 9:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Just One Stock. What do you think?
Replies: 25
Views: 1519

Re: I think I'm getting phished

That email address is listed at:
https://personal.vanguard.com/web/email ... _Core.html

Vanguard owns the email address according to http://www.whois.sc.

With that said, it's very easy to spoof an email address. It is probably fake.
by InvestorNewb
Mon May 13, 2013 8:41 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I think I'm getting phished
Replies: 25
Views: 2060

Re: Just Sold Out. What do you think?

We could be in the middle of a bull market. Who knows. So yes, I think you are a little crazy to sell everything like that.

If it's a long term plan you shouldn't care all that much.
by InvestorNewb
Mon May 13, 2013 5:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Just Sold Out. What do you think?
Replies: 95
Views: 6917

Re: HAPPY BIRTHDAY MR. JOHN BOGLE

I'm a little late to the party - but happy belated birthday! :sharebeer
by InvestorNewb
Mon May 13, 2013 11:03 am
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: HAPPY BIRTHDAY MR. JOHN BOGLE
Replies: 32
Views: 1400

Re: Clarifying the term "downside risk"

I don't think there is any need to add "downside" to the word "risk". Risk itself is a downside.
by InvestorNewb
Mon May 13, 2013 10:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Clarifying the term "downside risk"
Replies: 4
Views: 230

Re: Help with Portfolio data on Morningstar

Thanks for the info. I entered each of my initial investments and then added new contributions (including dividends) under the "Buy/Sell" tab. However, my gains in M* are off by a little over 1%. i.e. they are higher than what I see in my brokerage account. I guess this isn't a big deal, b...
by InvestorNewb
Sun May 12, 2013 4:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with Portfolio data on Morningstar
Replies: 5
Views: 273

Re: 2 fund portfolio

Total World is slightly more expensive than owning Total US and Total International separately. For this reason, I opted for the latter.

I also like being able to control my international allocation. 30% seems to be what most experts agree on.
by InvestorNewb
Sat May 11, 2013 10:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 2 fund portfolio
Replies: 23
Views: 2451

Re: Billionaires Dumping Stocks, Economist Knows Why - Money

I can't believe anyone takes that web site seriously.

I saw the same story about 6 months ago... they recycle the same ones over and over again, hoping to get readers by instilling fear.
by InvestorNewb
Sat May 11, 2013 10:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Billionaires Dumping Stocks, Economist Knows Why - Moneynews
Replies: 22
Views: 2988

Re: Stock Market success

There are a handful of professional investors that have done very well over the years with relatively low diversity. Many of them came from Ben Grahams thought process. For every one of those success stories, there are thousands of people that have gotten killed trying to pick stocks. Maybe luck pl...
by InvestorNewb
Sat May 11, 2013 1:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Market success
Replies: 60
Views: 4444

Re: Past Performance

I agree 100% with the OP. We all look at past performance before investing. Otherwise, indexing would never have caught on in the first place.

IMO, looking at past performance over long periods is a good indication of future performance.
by InvestorNewb
Sat May 11, 2013 1:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Past Performance
Replies: 60
Views: 2219

Help with Portfolio data on Morningstar

Hello, I want to enter all of my portfolio data on Morningstar, but I'm confused about the best way to do it. Are dividends automatically factored-in/calculated, or do they have to be manually entered? I would prefer to manually enter them so that I can enter the exact price I paid for new shares. D...
by InvestorNewb
Sat May 11, 2013 10:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with Portfolio data on Morningstar
Replies: 5
Views: 273

Re: Fund Advice from Advisor - S&P500 Performance

These guys will NEVER recommend an index fund, because there's no incentive to. I remember when I met with a fund manager at a different bank many months ago, he showed me a list of their funds. One was an index fund and he also discouraged it by saying that the problem with index funds is that the...
by InvestorNewb
Sat May 11, 2013 9:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fund Advice from Advisor - S&P500 Performance
Replies: 42
Views: 1817

Re: 100% equities, anyone?

I'm about 80% equities and 20% cash.
by InvestorNewb
Fri May 10, 2013 10:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% equities, anyone?
Replies: 138
Views: 7588

Re: Fund Advice from Advisor - S&P500 Performance

What a joke... comparing apples with oranges.

It's reasons like this why I don't bother with fund managers.
by InvestorNewb
Fri May 10, 2013 5:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fund Advice from Advisor - S&P500 Performance
Replies: 42
Views: 1817

Moving into a 400 s.f. condo?

Hello, I found a condo (currently being built) for sale in my area for 200k but it is only 400 s.f. and doesn't have a balcony or separate bedroom. It's in a main city downtown and close to transit, so I'm thinking about getting it. The condo fee would only be $200/mo. based on the size of the unit....
by InvestorNewb
Thu May 09, 2013 6:03 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Moving into a 400 s.f. condo?
Replies: 16
Views: 1908

Re: Told myself I'd invest tomorrow...

He should stick with his original plan of VT. Boggler reminds me of me when I first started posting here; lots of questions, very indecisive, all over the place, afraid to take action. It's all part of the journey. Bought some VT this morning. :) Congrats. :sharebeer Bought some VT this morning. Oh...
by InvestorNewb
Thu May 09, 2013 1:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Told myself I'd invest tomorrow...
Replies: 35
Views: 3274

Re: Diversity versus S&P

If VT had a 0.05% expense ratio I would be tempted to use it for the core of my portfolio.

By investing in only the S&P 500 index you will automatically beat 75% of mutual funds. The returns of VOO vs. VTI are virtually identical.
by InvestorNewb
Thu May 09, 2013 9:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversity versus S&P
Replies: 5
Views: 316

Re: NY FED - Are Stocks Cheap a Review of The evidence

That would be great if we saw excess returns for the next 5 years. It would mean that going all in this year was a good decision on my part.
by InvestorNewb
Thu May 09, 2013 8:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NY FED - Are Stocks Cheap a Review of The evidence
Replies: 9
Views: 794

Re: Told myself I'd invest tomorrow...

He should stick with his original plan of VT.

Boggler reminds me of me when I first started posting here; lots of questions, very indecisive, all over the place, afraid to take action. It's all part of the journey.
by InvestorNewb
Wed May 08, 2013 3:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Told myself I'd invest tomorrow...
Replies: 35
Views: 3274

Re: Anyone still waiting for a market dip before investing?

The whole point of investing is to consistently reach new highs. How big of a dip are folks waiting for?
by InvestorNewb
Wed May 08, 2013 1:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone still waiting for a market dip before investing?
Replies: 41
Views: 3604

Re: Lessons from the last crash?

I wasn't in the market in 2008, so I basically 'yawned' when the crash happened, not knowing much about it.

Hopefully we won't see one of that magnitude again.
by InvestorNewb
Wed May 08, 2013 12:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lessons from the last crash?
Replies: 44
Views: 3791

Re: Why don't people use the Permanent Portfolio?

If I had millions of dollars I would probably use the permanent portfolio. It seems like a good way to preserve what you have, get moderate gains, and not take on too much risk.
by InvestorNewb
Wed May 08, 2013 12:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't people use the Permanent Portfolio?
Replies: 151
Views: 8230

Re: How Would Mr. Bogle Calculate Expected REIT Returns?

Isn't it also worth nothing that REITs still haven't reached their former high in 2007? i.e. REITs were priced higher 6 years ago. Today's "highs" are relative to the period in which we look at them. Over the last 3-4 years, it does feel like a bubble. But over the last 10, it doesn't. I'm...
by InvestorNewb
Wed May 08, 2013 8:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Would Mr. Bogle Calculate Expected REIT Returns?
Replies: 53
Views: 4168

Re: Told myself I'd invest tomorrow...

If I could do it two months ago with double the amount, you can do it today.

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=109785&p=1619679#p1619679
by InvestorNewb
Tue May 07, 2013 9:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Told myself I'd invest tomorrow...
Replies: 35
Views: 3274

Re: Do you believe stocks are safer the longer they are held

The way I look at it is the longer you are in the market, the more of a "cushion" you have built up to absorb potential losses. And the loss isn't as bad if the principle isn't affected. For instance, I've only been in the market for about 3-4 months. In that time, I've already built up a ...
by InvestorNewb
Tue May 07, 2013 1:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you believe stocks are safer the longer they are held?
Replies: 80
Views: 3201

Re: Show us your M* Average MFund Exp Ratio %

0.105% 8-) What's funny is that if I didn't happen to "stumble" across these message boards, I would likely be paying 10, 15, possibly even 20 times the expense ratio. Thankfully I arrived here at a relatively young age and have been absorbing the wisdom of all of the great folks on here. ...
by InvestorNewb
Tue May 07, 2013 12:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Show us your M* Average MFund Exp Ratio %
Replies: 60
Views: 1784

Should I sell my bond fund?

Hello, In November 2012 I started the 3-fund portfolio with an investment of 10k. Part of that (10%) went to buying the Total Bond Index fund, BND. Since then, I decided to expand my portfolio to include Canada (VCE) and REITs (VNQ). After considerable research, these are 4 ETFs that I plan on holdi...
by InvestorNewb
Tue May 07, 2013 12:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I sell my bond fund?
Replies: 3
Views: 474

Re: Vanguard reit fund valuation

It will be interesting to come back in a year or two from now and see where REITs are priced at. I only bought into REITs a few months ago and have been enjoying the returns to date. I don't know how much longer they will rise in the short-term, but in the long-term, everything seems to go up. I wou...
by InvestorNewb
Tue May 07, 2013 8:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard reit fund valuation
Replies: 11
Views: 1419

Re: How Would Mr. Bogle Calculate Expected REIT Returns?

REITs make up about 20% of my portfolio... and I only bought in about 3 months ago. Hopefully today's "high" will be next year's low. It just seems that for everyone who says not to buy REITs in 2013, somebody else comes along and says they're a great investment. I find it difficult to dis...
by InvestorNewb
Mon May 06, 2013 10:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Would Mr. Bogle Calculate Expected REIT Returns?
Replies: 53
Views: 4168

Re: Please critique this portfolio: 100% VT.

I'm also 100% stock but I prefer to diversify across different indexes. When one index is down, it's nice to see that another one is up. I also do this for tax reasons. There are withholding taxes on dividends if I hold US equities in my tax free account, so I hold the Canadian index in that account...
by InvestorNewb
Mon May 06, 2013 7:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please critique this portfolio: 100% VT. [Total World Index]
Replies: 68
Views: 3074

Re: please recommend any good ETF

Extremely risky :!: OP wants safe :happy John Edit, look at chart in this post http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=115718 I posted the chart in that post. :happy Then you know it is not safe for OP's time frame :idea: John I know it's not safe for short time frames, and that's w...
by InvestorNewb
Mon May 06, 2013 4:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: please recommend any good ETF
Replies: 23
Views: 1135

Re: please recommend any good ETF

Johm221122 wrote:Extremely risky :!:
OP wants safe :happy
John
Edit, look at chart in this post
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=115718


I posted the chart in that post. :happy
by InvestorNewb
Mon May 06, 2013 10:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: please recommend any good ETF
Replies: 23
Views: 1135

Re: please recommend any good ETF

Nothing exists like that. But I read that REITs have an expected return of around 10% over long periods. According to the site below, "the last ten years saw REITs return around 10% annually compared with the S&P 500's decline of 1% a year over the same period. REITs returned the same 10% a...
by InvestorNewb
Mon May 06, 2013 8:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: please recommend any good ETF
Replies: 23
Views: 1135

Re: World VS US/Intl funds

I debated about only using the Total World Index. But there is something about a 0.05% expense ratio for the Total US Index that just has a good "feeling" to it. I also didn't like not being able to control my international allocation. In the end I decided to split 70:30 between VTI and VX...
by InvestorNewb
Mon May 06, 2013 8:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: World VS US/Intl funds
Replies: 9
Views: 456

Re: REITs... buy more?

^^ Thanks for these very helpful insights. In the last 10 years (probably longer) both REITs and the Total Stock Mkt Index have been pretty closely correlated: http://s24.postimg.org/6df96n0np/Capture2.png Another reason I want to buy more REITs in my tax deferred account is to take advantage of the...
by InvestorNewb
Fri May 03, 2013 6:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: REITs... buy more?
Replies: 23
Views: 2204

Re: Not invested. Help!

You remind me of me in November 2012. In February 2013 I went all in. With the way things are going right now, I'm happy I did.
by InvestorNewb
Fri May 03, 2013 11:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Not invested. Help!
Replies: 11
Views: 734

Re: REITs... buy more?

Do you have an IPS? I manage the portfolio myself, so no IPS here. What does it mean "manage the portfolio myself"? Tactical Asset Allocation? I just meant that I passively manage it myself. i.e. by reinvesting quarterly dividends, making new contributions, and rebalancing (when the time ...
by InvestorNewb
Thu May 02, 2013 1:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: REITs... buy more?
Replies: 23
Views: 2204

Re: Yikes, Vanguard CFP rec. 20% bonds for retirement!!!

People are living longer and bonds are losing money. This AA doesn't surprise me considering that you only need a small income stream.
by InvestorNewb
Thu May 02, 2013 1:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Yikes, Vanguard CFP rec. 20% bonds for retirement!!!
Replies: 73
Views: 6846

Re: REITs... buy more?

Elbowman wrote:Do you have an IPS?


I manage the portfolio myself, so no IPS here.
by InvestorNewb
Thu May 02, 2013 12:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: REITs... buy more?
Replies: 23
Views: 2204

REITs... buy more?

Hello, I have more contribution space in my tax-deferred account, so I'm thinking about buying more REITs. If I use the full amount to buy more REITs, it will account for about 20% of my overall portfolio. It's already very high even before the new contribution. Is 20% too high to allocate to REITs?...
by InvestorNewb
Thu May 02, 2013 12:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: REITs... buy more?
Replies: 23
Views: 2204

Re: How should I allocate and invest $450,000?

My dad's main argument for active management for the entire portfolio is that active managers are better at avoiding downside risk and can avoid or lessen the negative impacts on compounding when the market drops. According to his theory, they are professional and the best managers and they underst...
by InvestorNewb
Thu May 02, 2013 9:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How should I allocate and invest $450,000?
Replies: 22
Views: 3212

Re: Your Dumbest Financial Move

Buying a $5,000 tv that I never use.
by InvestorNewb
Fri Apr 26, 2013 7:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your Dumbest Financial Move
Replies: 166
Views: 12403

Re: Thoughts on computer-based trading

entyrii wrote:There is no free lunch.

Would you be willing to bet your retirement on their proprietary algorithm?


Probably not, unless it had a proven track record with decades (maybe even a century) of data.
by InvestorNewb
Thu Apr 25, 2013 6:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on computer-based trading
Replies: 8
Views: 502

Re: Do you Fancy Yourself as a Contrarian ?....Prove it !...

Don't contrarians also look for a "sale"? I wouldn't exactly consider bonds a sale right now.
by InvestorNewb
Thu Apr 25, 2013 6:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you Fancy Yourself as a Contrarian ?....Prove it !....
Replies: 25
Views: 1492

Thoughts on computer-based trading

Hello, I read an article today on yahoo about computer-based trading: http://ca.news.yahoo.com/google-based-trading-strategy-made-big-return-study-152948272--sector.html The article claims a 326% return since 2004. Since joining the forums, I don't recall seeing any threads about computer-based trad...
by InvestorNewb
Thu Apr 25, 2013 5:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on computer-based trading
Replies: 8
Views: 502

Re: European stocks on sale

At your age I'd be 80% stock, 20% bond, or 90% stock, 10% bond. I like a 60/40 split between domestic and international equities. As others above have said, dont try to time the market. Set your allocation and rebalance as necessary, or buy the target retirement fund (which rebalances for you) and ...
by InvestorNewb
Wed Apr 24, 2013 6:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: European stocks on sale
Replies: 15
Views: 898

Re: European stocks on sale

Your investment decisions should be based on time horizon and the amount of risk you can afford to take rather than trying to determine what asset classes are "on sale." Who knows? The Euro could collapse and Europe could go into free fall tomorrow. Answer some of these questions and we m...
by InvestorNewb
Wed Apr 24, 2013 6:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: European stocks on sale
Replies: 15
Views: 898

European stocks on sale

Hello, I'm thinking about investing more money into the Total International Stock Index. Given that Europe makes up around 50% of this index, it almost seems like a good time to buy. Although it's hard diverging money away from the Total US Stock Index, given that it's done so well this year. The on...
by InvestorNewb
Wed Apr 24, 2013 3:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: European stocks on sale
Replies: 15
Views: 898
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