Search found 1696 matches

by IlliniDave
Fri Aug 28, 2015 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do "valuations" affect your asset allocation?
Replies: 44
Views: 1564

Re: Do "valuations" affect your asset allocation?

The idea is that bond yields are 2.5% below their historical average so should the optimal portfolio include less bonds than historically? ... On the other hand, even Jack Bogle admits switching his portfolio from 75/25 to 25/75 right before the dot com crash based on bond yields and PE. Of course ...
by IlliniDave
Fri Aug 28, 2015 4:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you diversify?
Replies: 24
Views: 1705

Re: How do you diversify?

I keep the core of my financial portfolio in total market-type funds. I do some minor tilting but not as much for diversification as simply in the hopes of capturing a little risk premium. I don't mess with gold or commodities or fancy derivative products, etc. Most of my true diversification comes ...
by IlliniDave
Thu Aug 27, 2015 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?
Replies: 83
Views: 4448

Re: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?

The basic diversification for me this week was that I lost money on every continent (except perhaps Antarctica) rather than just losing money in North America. But did you really lose anything? Assuming you didn't sell - if your in it for the long haul this is just a blip... The way I look at it is...
by IlliniDave
Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Student Loans and stuff what would YOU do?
Replies: 8
Views: 929

Re: Student Loans and stuff what would YOU do?

I am not a financial sophisticate, I like things simple. I'd use part of the cash to pay off SL1 then put all my focus on paying off SL2 ASAP, using the monthly amounts that had been going towards the car and SL1, plus anything else I could scrape up, even to the point where I'd temporarily dial bac...
by IlliniDave
Thu Aug 27, 2015 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bounced back too quick
Replies: 33
Views: 4336

Re: Bounced back too quick

Like the old saying says, "It ain't over 'til it's over." For now, I'm glad I moved quickly to grab my little TLH opportunity. I agree with others, trying to make sense of what's going on and what will happen next in day-to-day/week-to-week windows is for the most part a lost cause. It'll ...
by IlliniDave
Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?
Replies: 83
Views: 4448

Re: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?

The basic diversification for me this week was that I lost money on every continent (except perhaps Antarctica) rather than just losing money in North America. I've been one of the unlucky ones whose ability to participate in international investing (up until 2011 when I expanded to taxable it was d...
by IlliniDave
Thu Aug 27, 2015 3:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So I think I screwed up my TLH
Replies: 5
Views: 401

Re: So I think I screwed up my TLH

That's interesting. I'd assumed it applies to all accounts. I thought the whole idea of a wash sale between taxable and tax-deferred was odd since in a tax-deferred account there really are no capital gains for tax purposes, just simple income, in the end. Even odder that they treat 401ks different ...
by IlliniDave
Wed Aug 26, 2015 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Greaney reviews Vanguard Personal Advisor Services
Replies: 14
Views: 1662

Re: John Greaney reviews Vanguard Personal Advisor Services

These kinds of analyses tend to depress me. For some time now I've considered pursuing a CFP or CFA and provide financial help to people on a part-time basis in retirement in a way that doesn't fleece them. But it's hard to come up with a way to charge for the service that makes sense for everyone i...
by IlliniDave
Wed Aug 26, 2015 7:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [spurned advisor purports there is a Vanguard] Class Action Suit?
Replies: 43
Views: 3760

Re: [spurned advisor purports there is a Vanguard] Class Action Suit?

Hi. My adviser from the firm I am transitioning from sent me this yesterday: Accordingly, as index funds track their respective indices, their volatility level should also be in line with the index they're tracking, however, I invite you to compare how your Vanguard funds have done over the last fe...
by IlliniDave
Wed Aug 26, 2015 6:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are you being GREEDY when others are fearful?
Replies: 84
Views: 8809

Re: How are you being GREEDY when others are fearful?

I've been amused by the vocabulary in the media. Terms like "rout", "crash", "plunge", "crisis". I'm thinking someone forgot to tell me it is National Hyperbole Week or something. This may continue on and get much worse, and those words probably do apply to Ch...
by IlliniDave
Wed Aug 26, 2015 6:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% equities - my reasoning
Replies: 105
Views: 8745

Re: 100% equities - my reasoning

100% equities certainly is not a universal panacea, nor is it evil incarnate. I survived it fine for my first ~18-19 years. I made my first change away from that on the cusp of a divorce settlement in late 2007, and in recognition of my age have returned around 70-80% in the aftermath. Sometimes we ...
by IlliniDave
Wed Aug 26, 2015 4:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is tax loss harvesting always worth all the fuss?
Replies: 64
Views: 4543

Re: Is tax loss harvesting always worth all the fuss?

In about 2 minutes time yesterday I knocked about $900 off my 2015 tax bill. That's about $27,000/hr. Human capital well-spent. I always do it if I can, but I don't have a whole lot of taxable investments, so it won't make me rich or even notably better off. I just feel better avoiding taxes (legal...
by IlliniDave
Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is tax loss harvesting always worth all the fuss?
Replies: 64
Views: 4543

Re: Is tax loss harvesting always worth all the fuss?

In about 2 minutes time yesterday I knocked about $900 off my 2015 tax bill. That's about $27,000/hr. Human capital well-spent. I always do it if I can, but I don't have a whole lot of taxable investments, so it won't make me rich or even notably better off. I just feel better avoiding taxes (legall...
by IlliniDave
Tue Aug 25, 2015 10:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Books to help a couple working out a budget
Replies: 23
Views: 1411

Re: Books to help a couple working out a budget

I like to think of a budget more as a spending plan than as a restraint. You're deciding what you'll do with your money rather than figure out how you're going to pay for what you've already done. It's ironic that something so empowering is so often cast in such a negative light. There really isn't ...
by IlliniDave
Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are you being GREEDY when others are fearful?
Replies: 84
Views: 8809

Re: How are you being GREEDY when others are fearful?

I was neither greedy nor fearful, nor totally above the fray. I stayed the course but did not sit on my hands. I did a little TLH and deferred about $900 in taxes down the road for a time, and eliminated some positions in my taxable account that I'd come to decide would work better for me in my 401k.
by IlliniDave
Mon Aug 24, 2015 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's selling now?
Replies: 63
Views: 6444

Re: Who's selling now?

TLH out of VG EM index and Total International into Total Stock Market, then in 401k sold Total Stock Market and bought an active developing markets fund (only ~EM in the plan), and a Northern Trust international fund that tracks a different index than VG Total International. That's the most "c...
by IlliniDave
Mon Aug 24, 2015 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deciding allocation for new investments during a market correction or possibly a Bear market
Replies: 17
Views: 818

Re: Deciding allocation for new investments during a market correction or possibly a Bear market

I like to buy in to what's been weak. You could think of it as a nod to value averaging. Through last week I've been avoiding purchases of US equities. Depending on how this week plays out, that may change.
by IlliniDave
Mon Aug 24, 2015 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TLH Question
Replies: 3
Views: 247

Re: TLH Question

Thanks, livesoft. That seems to be common sense since the second lot is sold off and therefore don't serve as replacement shares. I had forgot about the basis adjustment or else maybe I could have worked it out myself.
by IlliniDave
Mon Aug 24, 2015 7:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TLH Question
Replies: 3
Views: 247

TLH Question

Say I have 2 lots of a security, Lot 2 purchased 27 days ago and Lot 1 purchased 6 months ago. If I sold them both today (at a loss, and the loss from Lot 1 >> loss from Lot 2), would I have issues with a wash sale since, even though it was sold, lot 2 was purchased < 30 days ago?
by IlliniDave
Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: dont forget to tax loss harvest
Replies: 28
Views: 2895

Re: dont forget to tax loss harvest

I think I'm going to pull the TLH trigger today. I'll probably have enough losses to offset all my cap gains for the year if the day keeps going the way it is. Small consolation.
by IlliniDave
Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Loss in portfolio makes me spend more, do you ?
Replies: 30
Views: 2190

Re: Loss in portfolio makes me spend more, do you ?

No, not in the least. If market valuations sag a little for a time I do not suddenly get some feeling of deprivation. At this stage the net result is that I'm just giving back a fraction of some past gains. At some point significantly further along than we are now, I would probably begin to contract...
by IlliniDave
Sun Aug 23, 2015 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Getting out of your comfort zone
Replies: 21
Views: 2182

Re: Getting out of your comfort zone

Any time I've bought into a declining or beaten-up market, or sold assets (not as an "exchange"), or watched the value of my assets decline, I've been uncomfortable; but I don't associate any sort of growth as an investor with those discomforts. I maintain that I have little or no skill a...
by IlliniDave
Sun Aug 23, 2015 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Getting out of your comfort zone
Replies: 21
Views: 2182

Re: Getting out of your comfort zone

Any time I've bought into a declining or beaten-up market, or sold assets (not as an "exchange"), or watched the value of my assets decline, I've been uncomfortable; but I don't associate any sort of growth as an investor with those discomforts. I maintain that I have little or no skill as...
by IlliniDave
Sun Aug 23, 2015 6:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Asset Returns & Future Returns
Replies: 35
Views: 2090

Re: Historical Asset Returns & Future Returns

Well, for someone with a very long investing horizon, maybe a return to the emphasis on "stocks for dividends" is the ultimate destination.
by IlliniDave
Sat Aug 22, 2015 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long will you"Stay the Course"?
Replies: 99
Views: 7727

Re: How long will you"Stay the Course"?

I dunno for sure. I am human and can't say with certainty if or where I might break. That said, what's happened recently doesn't prompt me to consider doing anything but wait it out. If things continue like this for a week or two I'll maybe think about changing how I direct my new contributions and ...
by IlliniDave
Sat Aug 22, 2015 6:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 522
Views: 75113

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

I'm down about 3.3% for the year. 48 hours ago I was up for the year. Easy come, easy go.
by IlliniDave
Fri Aug 21, 2015 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good time for 50/50 portfolio Bonds/Equities?
Replies: 59
Views: 5782

Re: Good time for 50/50 portfolio Bonds/Equities?

If this keeps going I'll be at 50/50 soon enough :(
by IlliniDave
Fri Aug 21, 2015 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1932
Views: 340595

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Weeks like this are what we get paid over the long haul to endure.
by IlliniDave
Tue Aug 18, 2015 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you "weight" pre-tax and post-tax money differently when you AA?
Replies: 55
Views: 2168

Re: Should you "weight" pre-tax and post-tax money differently when you AA?

I've thought about it, but for me it would just be an unnecessary complication. I don't use a lot of precision in my AA anyway.
by IlliniDave
Tue Aug 18, 2015 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Defining "stay the course"
Replies: 23
Views: 2001

Re: Defining "stay the course"

I have an end goal in mind. Navigating a prudent course to that goal at all times is how I "stay the course". Sometimes I adjust the rudder or the sail, but I never abandon the journey. Admittedly, I'm somewhat less rigid in my interpretation than many.
by IlliniDave
Mon Aug 17, 2015 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you believe in the Shamita?
Replies: 20
Views: 726

Re: Do you believe in the Shamita?

I believe there is such a concept in Jewish tradition. I do not believe it means financial doomsday is upon us.
by IlliniDave
Fri Aug 14, 2015 7:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some HiLites of the Retirement Research Consortium Annual Meeting
Replies: 44
Views: 4903

Re: Some HiLites of the Retirement Research Consortium Annual Meeting

Interesting stuff. I'm intending to downsize my home and I don't expect any of my heirs will want it. Seems like if one could find a non-predatory deal on a reverse mortgage (or LOC--I honestly don't know the distinction at this time) it would be a reasonable strategy approaching one's last line of ...
by IlliniDave
Thu Aug 13, 2015 10:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is 401K Match included when someone asks you how much you make per year?
Replies: 47
Views: 3344

Re: Is 401K Match included when someone asks you how much you make per year?

In general I don't include it, even in my private thoughts. I actually think of it as investment return in my 401k, which I also don't include as part of "how much I make". If you're looking to borrow money I'd think you wouldn't include it because it's not really part of your cash flow fr...
by IlliniDave
Wed Aug 12, 2015 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets Equity % of AA
Replies: 24
Views: 1980

Re: Emerging Markets Equity % of AA

I'm somewhere around 8-10% E/M I think, on top of total international ex-us. I'm a loose allocator/rebalancer, so I don't often compute the exact percentages.
by IlliniDave
Wed Aug 12, 2015 12:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 5 Finance Myths Millennials Should Avoid
Replies: 32
Views: 5469

Re: 5 Finance Myths Millennials Should Avoid

Well, that's very close to the opposite of what I'd do if, knowing what I know now, I woke up tomorrow as a millennial. Goes to show how out of touch and steeped in mythology I am.
by IlliniDave
Wed Aug 12, 2015 6:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much is too much?
Replies: 42
Views: 5323

Re: How much is too much?

I have to admit that the idea of having "too much" is pretty foreign to me. If you are unhappy in the present, then you are probably doing something wrong, or at least sub-optimally. Spending more money is not guaranteed to fix that, but it might. Experiment with it. Take a moderate amount...
by IlliniDave
Wed Aug 12, 2015 5:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your First Job
Replies: 113
Views: 6188

Re: Your First Job

If I ignore mowing yards and shoveling snow, which I started around age 10-12 when a ten-speed bike caught my eye, my first job for which I got a paycheck was working as a janitor at my high school during my freshman year, age 14 I think. The way it worked for me growing up was that if I wanted life...
by IlliniDave
Tue Aug 11, 2015 6:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: For the bogleheads either retired or close to retiring
Replies: 29
Views: 3874

Re: For the bogleheads either retired or close to retiring

My salary in the last few years has crept over you stated limit, but since I lost more than half in a divorce not so long ago, it's sort of like I was only making half what I was, and so my effective career average over 28+ years has been well under $100K. I intend to retire sometime between 9 mos a...
by IlliniDave
Tue Aug 11, 2015 5:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is going on out there?
Replies: 43
Views: 6261

Re: What is going on out there?

I agree with the general thread of advice that says it's best not to think about it. Trying to make sense of it will lead errors in judgement all too often. As nisiprius alluded to, investing in the stock market is the act of buying in and sitting back and sharing in the moneymaking of publicly-trad...
by IlliniDave
Tue Aug 11, 2015 5:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Preparing for the unimaginable
Replies: 33
Views: 2892

Re: Preparing for the unimaginable

Well, as an investor I don't do much because I believe that if we get into the territory of the truly unimaginable the last of my worries will be my investment portfolio. Beyond investing my preparations are working towards "retirement" at the soonest feasible date so that I can spend time...
by IlliniDave
Mon Aug 10, 2015 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this time different?
Replies: 42
Views: 3765

Re: Is this time different?

It's pretty much always different. The next bad stretch will come, but we don't know when or why, or what it will look like. So in that sense it's not different this time--what's the same is that it's always different.
by IlliniDave
Sun Aug 09, 2015 6:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Got laid off last Friday
Replies: 53
Views: 8473

Re: Got laid off last Friday

Sorry to hear fo your situation. I tend to agree with waiting until things settle out and you're re-employed before deciding what to do about your house. If I've pieced it together right you're anticipating about $6200/mo net of taxes once you're fully reemployed? That would make your mortgage about...
by IlliniDave
Sat Aug 08, 2015 10:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dave Ramsey Rec. "conservative" AA
Replies: 18
Views: 3345

Re: Dave Ramsey Rec. "conservative" AA

I don't think many of us would quarrel with the fact that Dave provides good advice when it comes to helping people get out of debt and live within their means. But following his investing advice could lead to problems down the road when people expecting 12% returns on their investments discover th...
by IlliniDave
Sat Aug 08, 2015 6:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dave Ramsey Rec. "conservative" AA
Replies: 18
Views: 3345

Re: Dave Ramsey Rec. "conservative" AA

He should probably just stop at "invest 15% of your income in retirement accounts using good mutual funds". His book dates back to the early 1990s, so I was forgiving of the dated-ness of his advice there--indexing was still rather fringe at the time. But It's a little disappointing he has...
by IlliniDave
Fri Aug 07, 2015 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg: Look How Much Your Peers Are Saving for Retirement
Replies: 10
Views: 2708

Re: Bloomberg: Look How Much Your Peers Are Saving for Retirement

Generally I think information is a good thing. I don't know that I'd change anything if I had access to that sort of data, but anywhere I was drastically different than my "peers", I'd take some time to reexamine what I was doing.
by IlliniDave
Fri Aug 07, 2015 12:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: General Finance Strategies for Upper Middle Class
Replies: 33
Views: 5181

Re: General Finance Strategies for Upper Middle Class

First of all, I'm not quite sure where the divide is between mid middle class, upper middle class, and low upper class is. And what is a "class"? Are we talking income, assets, lifestyle, social circles? I have above median income and above median financial assets, and probably below media...
by IlliniDave
Fri Aug 07, 2015 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The folly of the dividend yield
Replies: 73
Views: 6269

Re: The folly of the dividend yield

It is curious that there aren't as many products out there (or at least they are less popular) that focus on the opposite strategy: invest only in companies that never pay dividends given the number of people who seem to think that is clearly the superior result. High Book Value to Price is a bette...
by IlliniDave
Fri Aug 07, 2015 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The folly of the dividend yield
Replies: 73
Views: 6269

Re: The folly of the dividend yield

All else being equal and assuming a single dividend payment each year, the share price will rise from $9 just after ex-div to $10 just before the next ex-div day. And, there, is the fundamental misconception about dividend stocks. That the dividend is paid with no (real, long-term) impact on the st...
by IlliniDave
Thu Aug 06, 2015 7:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to invest if you start with delay?
Replies: 16
Views: 2038

Re: How to invest if you start with delay?

There isn't a "right" answer to the question. The more conservative approach would be to invest the money in increments, but that approach is not without risk because the markets could rise for several years then tank the day after the last dollar was invested. I think the thing to do is j...
by IlliniDave
Thu Aug 06, 2015 6:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Net worth progress
Replies: 3
Views: 1118

Re: Net worth progress

That's pretty good progress in a year. You mention the low fruit of how you can improve your financial trajectory, and that is to keep spending to a minimum and keep deploying your income in "positive" ways (decreasing debt and increasing financial assets). What worked best for me was maki...

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