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Re: Where would you retire, if $ were no object?

Rockford, Illinois. I don't live there now because my job is somewhere else. Family considerations are the reason I will return to Illinois within the next 5 years. Outside of the US ...Thunder Bay, Ontario is the non-US city closest to where I like to fish. Or maybe I'd pick Armstrong, Ont. Somewhe...
by IlliniDave
Wed Apr 23, 2014 3:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where would you retire, if $ were no object?
Replies: 47
Views: 2106

Re: Please explain a 3% SWR to me

I think part of the reason is the general expectation that returns going forward are likely to be somewhat below historical values (which the Trinity Study was based on). That's part of the reason I'm using 3% in my planning, the other being my general habit of being somewhat financially conservati...
by IlliniDave
Wed Apr 23, 2014 12:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please explain a 3% SWR to me
Replies: 25
Views: 1016

Re: Please explain a 3% SWR to me

I think part of the reason is the general expectation that returns going forward are likely to be somewhat below historical values (which the Trinity Study was based on). That's part of the reason I'm using 3% in my planning, the other being my general habit of being somewhat financially conservativ...
by IlliniDave
Wed Apr 23, 2014 11:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please explain a 3% SWR to me
Replies: 25
Views: 1016

Re: What's your number?

My minimum number is about $700K invested. As long as I'm above that when I hit 55, I'm done with my full-time professional career. My best estimate today is that I'll be about 30%-40% above that at 55.
by IlliniDave
Wed Apr 23, 2014 11:02 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's your number?
Replies: 40
Views: 2050

Re: Savings Rate what do you include?

I have two numbers, I suppose. The first would be my goal savings rate, the second is my actual. In your example, 30% is the goal, 25% is the actual. For my way of doing things, what I "count" as savings is the number of dollars that goes directly from my paycheck into either my 401(k) or ...
by IlliniDave
Wed Apr 23, 2014 4:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Savings Rate what do you include?
Replies: 35
Views: 1988

Re: Stress-test your portfolio

The problem I have with stress testing is that I can look at the results intellectually and sort of shrug them off as the vagaries of how things go without it being visceral enough to really learn something actionable. That said, I'll probably try the link out and see what it says.
by IlliniDave
Mon Apr 21, 2014 1:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stress-test your portfolio
Replies: 5
Views: 666

Re: Do you use a dry powder/tactical asset allocation strate

I don't keep any sort of "dry powder" stash. I think along the lines of the Bogle items you included. I typically direct new money away from whatever has been performing best. I'm not against modifying my allocation slightly if it seems reasonably prudent to do so. I do keep an eye on valu...
by IlliniDave
Mon Apr 21, 2014 9:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you use a dry powder/tactical asset allocation strategy?
Replies: 23
Views: 1802

Re: Hit your #, Still want to work, does your savings % chan

Here is the scenario. You have zero debt. You are saving 25%-30% of your income each year and you hit your number but you still want to keep working for at least a couple more years. What do you do with the 25%-30% you have been saving? Do you allow yourself more toys? Keep saving but at a reduced ...
by IlliniDave
Sun Apr 20, 2014 6:06 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Hit your #, Still want to work, does your savings % change?
Replies: 47
Views: 3822

Re: Otar - Tactical Asset Allocation

Hi folks. I'm working my way through Unveiling Retirement Myths , and was surprised to read chapter 24, where Otar describes "Tactical Asset Allocation", which is really just a form of market timing. Essentially, if the previous year's equity returns were below the 6 year moving average, ...
by IlliniDave
Fri Apr 18, 2014 5:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Otar - Tactical Asset Allocation
Replies: 7
Views: 809

Re: Asset allocation over time

Good afternoon everyone, I am 34 years old and have a 70% equity/30% fixed income allocation for my IRAs. I plan to gradually shift to more fixed income over time, but I was curious how you all change your asset allocation over time in IRAs. Say, for example, you are 30 years old and had the same a...
by IlliniDave
Fri Apr 18, 2014 8:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation over time
Replies: 23
Views: 1231

Re: *poor* Bogleheads

I guess I'm between the worlds. I do have a low 6-figure income. My NW is in the lower third of the Boglehead continuum if one the surveys are credible, and will never reach the median. My biggest disconnect from the BH mainstream is that I intend to retire (early) on a below-median income. I wouldn...
by IlliniDave
Fri Apr 18, 2014 5:36 am
 
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: *poor* Bogleheads
Replies: 78
Views: 5329

Re: Bogle, Fama, Shiller & Asness Videos from Bloomberg

I agree--I caught it in the other thread. Really enjoyed it, although maybe it was because it contained a Mount Everest's worth of confirmation bias (diversification, low cost, small/value premiums, valuations matter, etc.). With the exception of Bogle's skepticism regarding value vs. growth, affirm...
by IlliniDave
Thu Apr 17, 2014 2:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle, Fama, Shiller & Asness Videos from Bloomberg
Replies: 5
Views: 439

Re: 2014 BOGLEHEADS CONFERENCE SOLD OUT

... But still, you/I/we had 7 weeks. It's not like it is impossible to go if you want to. Oh, I'm not blaming anyone but myself. I just didn't see the notice. It was clearly announced at the end of Feb. My bad for not paying attention. Hopefully next year I'll remember to be alert as March approach...
by IlliniDave
Thu Apr 17, 2014 2:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2014 BOGLEHEADS CONFERENCE SOLD OUT
Replies: 10
Views: 1152

Re: 2014 BOGLEHEADS CONFERENCE SOLD OUT

Dang, I was asleep at the wheel. Never noticed the announcement. Next year perhaps. Hopefully you'll get in next year before we're sold out. Hope so! I never saw the notice this March and didn't even know to look for it. I haven't been around long enough to know the cycle yet. But I learn quick. :D
by IlliniDave
Thu Apr 17, 2014 11:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2014 BOGLEHEADS CONFERENCE SOLD OUT
Replies: 10
Views: 1152

Re: Question about the gordon equation

The Gordon equation estimates future stock returns by using dividend yield + dividend growth + speculative return. From what I've read so far, historical dividend growth is used to estimate future dividend growth. Why is this? Considering dividend payout ratios have steadily declined and are about ...
by IlliniDave
Thu Apr 17, 2014 11:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question about the gordon equation
Replies: 2
Views: 195

Re: Asness & Fama on Bloomberg TV NOW

This is some really good stuff. Thanks for all the links.
by IlliniDave
Wed Apr 16, 2014 6:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asness & Fama on Bloomberg TV NOW
Replies: 23
Views: 1148

Re: 2014 BOGLEHEADS CONFERENCE SOLD OUT

Dang, I was asleep at the wheel. Never noticed the announcement. Next year perhaps.
by IlliniDave
Wed Apr 16, 2014 6:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2014 BOGLEHEADS CONFERENCE SOLD OUT
Replies: 10
Views: 1152

Re: Mr. Money Mustache: Hero or Foolish?

And that's the only issue I have with MMM... He's NOT living a 25k lifestyle... People living a 25k lifestyle do not get to go to Greece or Hawaii. He is indeed living very frugally, and could still be an inspiration to people without having to do fuzzy math. He claims living on 25k a year for deca...
by IlliniDave
Tue Apr 15, 2014 5:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache: Hero or Foolish?
Replies: 249
Views: 27312

Re: The Case for Dividend Stocks in Retirement (article)

I think nisiprius makes the most powerful argument. How do you explain the SAME growth from dividend fund versus the total stock fund for the past 10 years? Is there someone from the dividend crowd that can chime in here? When you collect these dividend checks at retirement, people are acting like ...
by IlliniDave
Mon Apr 14, 2014 4:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case for Dividend Stocks in Retirement (article)
Replies: 27
Views: 2249

Re: What % of stock market "drive" is gambling?

Almost nothing in life is free of risk, so one could make the argument that we're all gambling from the moment we begin to interact with the world around us until the moment we stop. To the question in your subject line I'd say it's inversely correlated to the amount of time the participant expects ...
by IlliniDave
Mon Apr 14, 2014 4:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What % of stock market "drive" is gambling?
Replies: 36
Views: 3468

Re: less you need social security, earlier you should claim

It isn't a slam dunk for me one way or the other. For me taking it at nominal age or even early might make a difference in how soon I tap my 401, which in my fuzzy planning so far has been the primary player in my post-70 income. I suppose I'll just have to see how my financial situation is when I h...
by IlliniDave
Sun Apr 13, 2014 12:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: less you need social security, earlier you should claim
Replies: 39
Views: 2799

Re: Stock markets in free fall?

I'm planning on working for 20-25 more years. Might I end up with more, if I held 10% instead 25% bonds? Perhaps/maybe/yes? Either way, I've chosen a level that fits my comfort zone....to each, their own. This points to a question that I have. Are people who go 100% equities not saving enough to re...
by IlliniDave
Sat Apr 12, 2014 12:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock markets in free fall?
Replies: 92
Views: 6564

Re: Stock markets in free fall?

HueyLD wrote:Whatever happened to the "why not 100% equity threads?"


If they fall another 40% or more, I will go 100% stocks! :D
by IlliniDave
Fri Apr 11, 2014 10:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock markets in free fall?
Replies: 92
Views: 6564

Re: Determining spending allowance for myself

Yes, the $400k is above and beyond both college savings and retirement. I consider both retirement and college savings to be "fully funded." Congrats! :D I would say, if there's something you want to do with part of the 400, then do it! I can't see a need to constrain yourself with an all...
by IlliniDave
Fri Apr 11, 2014 6:13 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Determining spending allowance for myself
Replies: 6
Views: 525

Re: Determining spending allowance for myself

I have a large sum of money - about $400,000 - sitting in a investment funds that I have no intended purpose for. We are finished with college savings for our children, we have no debt, and our retirement is solid. We own a house and are making monthly payments on at a rate of 3.25%, so I'm not mot...
by IlliniDave
Fri Apr 11, 2014 5:19 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Determining spending allowance for myself
Replies: 6
Views: 525

Re: How to invest my "Emergency Fund"

+1 to b4nash's suggestion, particularly the I Bonds (careful though, you must wait a year before withdrawing) and FDIC insured CDs. Basically things with no risk of loss of principal. Also you mentioned that the biggest emergency you foresee is needing to get a new car. Two things about that... 1) ...
by IlliniDave
Thu Apr 10, 2014 4:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to invest my "Emergency Fund"
Replies: 20
Views: 1999

Re: Getting over huge mistakes

Learn from them (sounds like you have) then forget about them. Life happens right now. If you dwell too much on past regrets, you'll miss it.

I can come up with a huge laundry list myself. I just get out of bed each day and start from where my feet hit the floor.
by IlliniDave
Thu Apr 10, 2014 4:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Getting over huge mistakes
Replies: 30
Views: 3308

Re: "Why do investors make bad choices?"

I'm beginning to think the most astute thing ever said about investing is something I've heard Bogle say a couple times (not sure if it's his phrase or if he's quoting someone else): The markets are a giant distraction to the business of investing. Many of the behavioral "errors" seem link...
by IlliniDave
Thu Apr 10, 2014 1:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why do investors make bad choices?"
Replies: 23
Views: 1624

Re: Favorite Investing Book?

The second edition of Common Sense on Mutual Funds and Rick Ferri's All About Asset Allocation (sorry, Rick, if that's not exactly the right title) are at the top of the list for me. I commonly refer back to these. Right behind, just by a hair, are Random Walk Down Wall Street and the Boglehead's Gu...
by IlliniDave
Wed Apr 09, 2014 1:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Favorite Investing Book?
Replies: 42
Views: 3275

Re: My debt fear/aversion and my epiphany

This is just to point out there is a difference between living with debt because it's smarter for now and living with debt because you don't live below your means. For any other debt adverse people out there who have never actually had a problem with debt themselves, I hope you can someday learn th...
by IlliniDave
Tue Apr 08, 2014 3:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My debt fear/aversion and my epiphany
Replies: 4
Views: 631

Re: What next after you have enough sort of.

I am very comfortable that between SS, small pensions and savings come 65-67 we will be in excellent shape. In other words I sort of feel like I have enough but I am not sure what to do for the next dozen or so years. I know the answer is save so I can retire early. I just have trouble figuring out...
by IlliniDave
Tue Apr 08, 2014 4:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What next after you have enough sort of.
Replies: 31
Views: 3381

Re: Asset location strategies for taxes are OK; but not grea

I know it's not real kosher, but I have different intended uses for my taxable and tax-advantaged accounts--taxable being a backup income source for early retirement and a backup to my emergency fund, tax-advantaged being reserved for full retirement. So I keep a good dollop of tax exempt bonds in t...
by IlliniDave
Mon Apr 07, 2014 9:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset location strategies for taxes are OK; but not great
Replies: 27
Views: 2642

Re: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?

I just bought my usual biweekly bit for my taxable: Total Stock index, Total Int'l index, and Emerging index. Last week I bought some bonds in my 401(k). Seems like everything is going down lately, but que sera, sera . Maybe I'm dumb, but I think there's more chance of missing opportunity than catch...
by IlliniDave
Mon Apr 07, 2014 2:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?
Replies: 124
Views: 12141

Re: John Bogle, Index Icon, Accused of Timing Market

John Bogle has not become a wild-eyed market timer. He is doing what many rational investors do and that is pay attention to valuations. He has also endorsed reaching for yield a bit, putting part of the stock portion of a portfolio into dividend stocks and using a corporate bond fund as part of th...
by IlliniDave
Sun Apr 06, 2014 10:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle, Index Icon, Accused of Timing Market
Replies: 44
Views: 4970

Re: How are you preparing for the coming bear market

I'm not doing anything specifically in anticipation of a coming bear market. Chances are someday one will come and then someday it will pass. In general I try to live my life in a way that does not mandate spending a lot of money on an ongoing basis. That allows me to hunker down and ride out a vari...
by IlliniDave
Sun Apr 06, 2014 7:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are you preparing for the coming bear market
Replies: 104
Views: 7852

Re: John Bogle, Index Icon, Accused of Timing Market

Any deviation away from your static allocation is active management. No way to sugar coat it. Wow - all this time I thought I was a passive investor. Oh well, then I guess I am an doing active management then...oh well. Yes, there appears to be very narrow definitions of some terms out there. Somet...
by IlliniDave
Sat Apr 05, 2014 12:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle, Index Icon, Accused of Timing Market
Replies: 44
Views: 4970

Re: Why is Vanguard defending high frequency trading?

Just because HFT activity does some good things doesn't mean HFTs should be given free reign to do anything they can dream up and pull off with their technology. At the same time, presuming Lewis is correct, just because a few HFTs engage in a questionable practice doesn't mean HFT should be oblite...
by IlliniDave
Fri Apr 04, 2014 9:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Joe Brennan defending high frequency trading?
Replies: 54
Views: 3593

Re: Why is Vanguard defending high frequency trading?

Just because HFT activity does some good things doesn't mean HFTs should be given free reign to do anything they can dream up and pull off with their technology. At the same time, presuming Lewis is correct, just because a few HFTs engage in a questionable practice doesn't mean HFT should be obliter...
by IlliniDave
Fri Apr 04, 2014 6:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Joe Brennan defending high frequency trading?
Replies: 54
Views: 3593

Re: How did you determine your "number" for retirement

My number is 55. I'm really waiting more on my age than a dollar amount. It's almost certain I'll have enough money to bump my external fixed income stream up to my "comfortable" pre-tax income threshold with a sub-3% withdrawal rate, maybe <2%, by then.
by IlliniDave
Thu Apr 03, 2014 3:27 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How did you determine your "number" for retirement
Replies: 51
Views: 3300

Re: John Bogle, Index Icon, Accused of Timing Market

http://www.thinkadvisor.com/2014/04/02/john-bogle-index-icon-accused-of-timing-market?t=fixed-income&page=2 "Servo’s Eric Nelson is stunned that the Vanguard founder would endorse tactical allocation and favor risky corporate bonds while dissing small-value stocks." “I really don't me...
by IlliniDave
Thu Apr 03, 2014 12:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle, Index Icon, Accused of Timing Market
Replies: 44
Views: 4970

Re: Check hold for 40 days? Outrageous?

I've never experienced more than about 48 hours anytime in the last 10-15 years, but any large checks I've deposited were either bank checks, or from my employer (who from the bank's perspective was a well-known local business even though the checks were drawn on an out-of-state bank). Even 10 days ...
by IlliniDave
Thu Apr 03, 2014 5:56 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Check hold for 40 days? Outrageous?
Replies: 11
Views: 1340

Re: Laid off today... TODO list?

Now the interesting thing is that all the theorizing I was doing about investing and withdrawal plans (man, did I go nuts with Excel sheets on this one), the way I'd explore and define a new way of life and find myself again... Well, switching from theory to practice is guaranteed to be very enligh...
by IlliniDave
Thu Apr 03, 2014 5:47 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Laid off today... TODO list?
Replies: 97
Views: 9688

Re: Laid off today... TODO list?

Sorry to hear about that. I got laid off once, but was holding three offers with the same company when it came (plant closing, partly a formality). Since I hadn't accepted any I went through part of the process. If you have any loans against a 401k repay them--they'll come due on your last day and i...
by IlliniDave
Wed Apr 02, 2014 7:55 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Laid off today... TODO list?
Replies: 97
Views: 9688

Re: Vanguard role in corporate governance

As per the general logic of index funds, I would like my index funds to vote passively, that is, allow the rest of the shareholders to decide. They should neither side with the board nor "choose what's best for the shareholder" in this one particular regard, after not spending the same am...
by IlliniDave
Wed Apr 02, 2014 4:20 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard role in corporate governance
Replies: 21
Views: 1061

Re: Do You Need Commodities in Your Portfolio?

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:
IlliniDave wrote:I hope not, because I don't have any, unless you count the extra 5 lbs of lentils in my pantry that I bought when they were on sale.


We don't need anymore gas, the country is flush with it. :P


I'm thinking my dogs would give that a big "+1" :)
by IlliniDave
Wed Apr 02, 2014 12:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do You Need Commodities in Your Portfolio?
Replies: 23
Views: 1339

Re: [High-frequency trading hurts regular customers]

The big question is now that this stuff is getting a ton of press, would you rather trade your order for 5 million dollars of apple stock on IEX or on a HFT friendly platform? Now I will not pretend to be able to tell you how much of the current press is pretty much a IEX PR campaign or if it is re...
by IlliniDave
Wed Apr 02, 2014 12:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [High-frequency trading hurts regular customers]
Replies: 107
Views: 6256

Re: [High-frequency trading hurts regular customers]

Mea culpa for assuming we were working from the same source material. You would probably find the 60 Minutes piece explains the technical aspects more clearly than Lewis could do on his own, mostly because they interview the RBC guy directly and add nice graphics; however the broad picture painted ...
by IlliniDave
Wed Apr 02, 2014 12:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [High-frequency trading hurts regular customers]
Replies: 107
Views: 6256

Re: [High-frequency trading hurts regular customers]

NY attorney general Eric Schneiderman defines the HFT issue this way: "There are places you can get to faster than other people, and front-run the market," he continued. "What's improper is front-running the market...using any special advantage or edge with your speed to have an unfa...
by IlliniDave
Wed Apr 02, 2014 11:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [High-frequency trading hurts regular customers]
Replies: 107
Views: 6256

Re: Bogle: Tilt To Corporates For More Yield

I've heard Bogle state that he is a buy and hold investor, but that he doesn't consider himself a buy, hold and rebalance investor. On occasion, when markets or spreads hit extremes, he re-allocates to reflect his desire of risk (or lack thereof) and his desire for yield which is an extremely impor...
by IlliniDave
Wed Apr 02, 2014 11:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle: Tilt To Corporates For More Yield
Replies: 64
Views: 6221

Re: Do You Need Commodities in Your Portfolio?

I hope not, because I don't have any, unless you count the extra 5 lbs of lentils in my pantry that I bought when they were on sale.
by IlliniDave
Wed Apr 02, 2014 10:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do You Need Commodities in Your Portfolio?
Replies: 23
Views: 1339
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