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Re: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt

I don't understand why there is this big uproar over this. As Taylor says "there are many roads to Dublin" and Paul Merriman is simply offering one of those roads - he likes to slice and dice. If anyone did any additional fact checking, you'll also see that Paul offers the same type of st...
by IlliniDave
Thu Nov 20, 2014 8:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt
Replies: 81
Views: 7287

Re: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt

BINGO, EmergDoc. He states that the past can't project the future, and yet he seems to use the past to project the future. Obvious hypocrisy. Don't we all do this? How in the world do any of us come up with an asset allocation if it isn't based on past returns? How do we know that the total markets...
by IlliniDave
Thu Nov 20, 2014 8:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt
Replies: 81
Views: 7287

Re: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt

Why anybody thinks that owning a piece of virtually every stock in the investment universe eludes me. This is not a strategy -- it is the total absence of a strategy. Forgive me JB. IMO, it is a strategy, just very straightforward. By doing so one gets a share of the returns of the entire market in...
by IlliniDave
Thu Nov 20, 2014 8:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt
Replies: 81
Views: 7287

Re: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt

Remember, Jack set up Vanguard with the investors as the owners. And he freely advises investors to own the market and hold forever vs trying to outsmart the market, as with DFA and tilting. And, following Jack's advice vs a DFA advisor's (which Paul recommended at the end of his broadcast), there ...
by IlliniDave
Wed Nov 19, 2014 4:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt
Replies: 81
Views: 7287

Re: Jack Bogle: expect 7% annualized for the foreseeable fut

Who cares what returns will be or end up? You should care because you future lifestyle depends upon it. Kind of like saying "who cares if the oncoming storm is a mild blow or a category 4 hurricane". :idea: No. My point is you, nor anyone, else can predict what future returns will be so o...
by IlliniDave
Wed Nov 19, 2014 12:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle: expect 7% annualized for the foreseeable future
Replies: 42
Views: 6003

Re: Jack Bogle: expect 7% annualized for the foreseeable fut

Hello all, In a very recent morningstar.com interview, Jack Bogle states 7% (2% dividends, 5% earnings growth) annualized returns about what we can expect moving forward for at least a 10 yr holding period. Would love to hear comments on this as well as thoughts on TILT strategies to increase the c...
by IlliniDave
Tue Nov 18, 2014 1:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle: expect 7% annualized for the foreseeable future
Replies: 42
Views: 6003

Re: Value Averaging: My experience after 9 years

I like the concept of VA, although I would use bond funds instead of cash. I haven't quite figured out how to implement it for an indefinite savings target, so what I've wound up doing could equally be described as incremental rebalancing with ongoing investment contributions. Thanks for sharing you...
by IlliniDave
Tue Nov 18, 2014 1:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Averaging: My experience after 9 years
Replies: 24
Views: 3748

Re: Strategies to protect retirement from depressn or long b

I think I would just learn to spend less. It would be much simpler. This might mean making sure you owned your home AND it was in very good shape. You would not want to have to replace the roof and furnace in the midst of a 15-year bear market. +1. That's my first recourse for most unfavorable econ...
by IlliniDave
Thu Nov 13, 2014 7:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strategies to protect retirement from depressn or long bear?
Replies: 33
Views: 3600

Re: what is the actual value of my tax deferred accounts?

I look at mine two ways. First is the simple face value at whatever the most recent market price I have data for (what seems to be suggested for a "standard" net worth calculation). But I also estimate a "cash out" value: what I'd get if I withdrew the entire balance tomorrow net...
by IlliniDave
Mon Nov 10, 2014 3:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what is the actual value of my tax deferred accounts?
Replies: 53
Views: 3576

Re: A Challenge for Bogleheads - the market has changed

The longest time period displayed there seemed to be 14 years or so. The entire period of c. 1982 - 1996 would have been "above trend" compared to the 14 prior years, and to sit it out for me would have had grave consequences for me today. The market is always changing. I do agree that whe...
by IlliniDave
Wed Oct 29, 2014 8:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Challenge for Bogleheads - the market has changed
Replies: 53
Views: 6756

Re: Do you dream about retirement?

Not while I'm asleep. I suppose you could say I daydream about it some, but I'm at the point where I'm making concrete plans, so even that's a little gray. My plans are to spend about half the year living in/near the city where my parents/siblings/aunts/uncles/cousins all live (also is a decent midp...
by IlliniDave
Mon Oct 27, 2014 11:22 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you dream about retirement?
Replies: 91
Views: 6568

Re: Bucket Approach Redux

Christine Benz, who is usually levelheaded, has been writing columns about the bucket concept for Morningstar. Afraid I haven't been reading those columns. What bothers me deeply about the "buckets" concept is the failure of its advocates to talk through the scenario of what exactly happe...
by IlliniDave
Mon Oct 27, 2014 7:10 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bucket Approach Redux
Replies: 35
Views: 2618

Re: Gross Yearly Income needed in Retirement (Speculation)

How much gross yearly income before taxes do you think you need in retirement? I'm looking to get a bunch of different viewpoints on this. Here are the parameters. -You own a house and it's paid for free and clear -You own cars outright -You have no debt of any kind whatsoever -You want to live a m...
by IlliniDave
Sun Oct 26, 2014 7:11 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Gross Yearly Income needed in Retirement (Speculation)
Replies: 159
Views: 12883

Re: So you think you're a Risk-taker?

I enjoy reading this kind of stuff, but for my own self-management I don't find it actionable. I certainly can experience stress when times are bad, but I also believe in relatively high equity allocations. Other than the mutual fund performance chasing days of my youth (which I was partially forced...
by IlliniDave
Sun Oct 26, 2014 6:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So you think you're a Risk-taker?
Replies: 36
Views: 4016

Re: Just wondering how you personally calculate net worth

Let's say you have 3 accounts: Taxable account- 100k Roth IRA- 10k Tax Deferred pension account- 100k Would you say that you are worth 210k? The taxable account has had taxes paid on the gains each year, whereas the pension will have taxes to be paid in the future. Just curious as to how most peopl...
by IlliniDave
Thu Oct 23, 2014 7:45 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Just wondering how you personally calculate net worth
Replies: 56
Views: 3833

Re: How to think about expected returns--continuing discussi

Personally, I'm a big fan of MC simulations, and operate a home-spun one for things financial. I've thought about trying to capture valuations as an input somehow but abandoned the idea because it made my head hurt. What I do instead is somewhat arbitrarily dial down the mean result below the typica...
by IlliniDave
Thu Oct 23, 2014 7:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to think about expected returns--continuing discussion
Replies: 105
Views: 8536

Re: More in equities as you age ?

I understand all the fungibility and whatnot, but intuitively for my situation I am very comfortable with the idea of funding some level of "lifestyle" in a conservative manner, and investing the balance of my assets in more of a growth-oriented posture (essentially I'll be stewarding most...
by IlliniDave
Thu Oct 23, 2014 7:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More in equities as you age ?
Replies: 11
Views: 1075

Re: Why do people use age instead of life expectancy?

I have always found the "age in bonds" discussions a bit bizarre. Your age as such MEANS NOTHING from an investment point of view. It is a useless factoid. It is being used as a proxy for life expectancy by people whose Victorian delicacy prohibits talking about death. . So the question i...
by IlliniDave
Mon Oct 20, 2014 8:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people use age instead of life expectancy?
Replies: 43
Views: 2948

Re: Advice needed for next 10 years: Save, spend borrow?

Well, essentially what it appears you are doing is transferring about $10K/year from taxable savings to retirement accounts (and/or college accounts). My personal preference is to have a good chunk of my financial assets on the taxable side of the ledger, so in your position I would probably look at...
by IlliniDave
Mon Oct 20, 2014 6:50 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice needed for next 10 years: Save, spend borrow?
Replies: 27
Views: 3902

Re: "I've had it" at work - how often

Tenure with present employer: something over 27 years, engineering, frequency: never that I can recall. I've encountered frustrating circumstances but see them as frustrating circumstances and don't cast aspersions on my entire livelihood over them. One of the reasons I don't let stuff get to me is ...
by IlliniDave
Mon Oct 20, 2014 6:19 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "I've had it" at work - how often
Replies: 151
Views: 12629

Re: Why do people use age instead of life expectancy?

I have always found the "age in bonds" discussions a bit bizarre. Your age as such MEANS NOTHING from an investment point of view. It is a useless factoid. It is being used as a proxy for life expectancy by people whose Victorian delicacy prohibits talking about death. . So the question i...
by IlliniDave
Mon Oct 20, 2014 6:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people use age instead of life expectancy?
Replies: 43
Views: 2948

Re: Investing Mortgage Payments

There is a thought by many people that one should invest money versus paying off a mortgage. In this assumption, let's say you were putting 6-10% in a 401k and in addition to that, could be making additional mortgage payments to pay off a mortgage at 52 versus 65 but instead choose to invest that a...
by IlliniDave
Tue Oct 14, 2014 5:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing Mortgage Payments
Replies: 11
Views: 1120

Re: Does your ROTH hold risky or stable items?

I have been reading information that argues both sides so I'm hoping the experts here can better explain and break the tie for me. I use the term risky in title but I mean funds/equities that have a higher ceiling but also a higher floor (vs a more stable fund, such as TIPs). Should a Roth (compare...
by IlliniDave
Tue Oct 14, 2014 5:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does your ROTH hold risky or stable items?
Replies: 56
Views: 3482

Re: Bill Sharpe on the 4% SWR rule (he thinks it's silly)

I've never thought of any X% SWR as a prescription, just as a way to get a ballpark estimate. As someone mentioned it is a simplified approach that is straightforward to analyze ala the Trinity Study. One could always just go with something like 4% of their beginning balance each year and make the w...
by IlliniDave
Tue Oct 14, 2014 3:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe on the 4% SWR rule (he thinks it's silly)
Replies: 51
Views: 4694

Re: Is a fall in portfolio value "only on paper"?

And finally, if your loss is "only on paper", then your gain is also "only on paper", so you have say that you haven't made any money at all until you convert your investments into cash. In particular, some high water mark value for your portfolio would be completely bogus, too....
by IlliniDave
Fri Oct 10, 2014 7:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a fall in portfolio value "only on paper"?
Replies: 86
Views: 4044

Re: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?

I admit it. I care. Big time. I'm getting clobbered in the 2014 Boglehead contest and the score is now being run up on me!
by IlliniDave
Thu Oct 09, 2014 3:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 461
Views: 34333

Re: I'm Chuck and I work at Vanguard and Invest in Active Fu

Meh, I have a few active Vanguard funds too. All their duration/term-based and muni bond funds are technically actively managed. I also have a little bit of their Capital Opportunity Fund (think that's the name, VHCOX) and a smaller bit of their precious metals and mining fund (VGPMX). And in my 401...
by IlliniDave
Thu Oct 09, 2014 6:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Chuck and I work at Vanguard and Invest in Active Funds
Replies: 44
Views: 8779

Re: Anyone ever get a roundtrip violation?

im with fidelity and i just put my IRA into a fund on 9/25 but i then decided i wanted to allocate the $ into different holdings. I have 30 days until i can sell that fund but if i do it sooner i will get a roundtrip warning. would it be a huge deal if i got that? i am anxious to rebalance my IRA a...
by IlliniDave
Wed Oct 08, 2014 7:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone ever get a roundtrip violation [at Fidelity]?
Replies: 21
Views: 2128

Re: "Stock Exposure: Grow or Shrink Throughout Retirement?"

I hope my exposure goes up as I age --- I plan to keep a roughly static AA and hope that my withdrawals are less than my earnings over time. That implies both stock and bond exposure goes up. However, if/when it becomes apparent that my money will outlive me I'll probably stop rebalancing and let my...
by IlliniDave
Mon Oct 06, 2014 5:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stock Exposure: Grow or Shrink Throughout Retirement?"
Replies: 35
Views: 2945

Re: Is there an "upper limit" on Boglehead theory?

Greenman72 wrote: Or do you think that at some point, they need more than just the basic three funds?


Need? Probably not. Want? Maybe. Real estate investments come to mind as something a lot of high net worth (8-figures and up) folks might prudently pursue.
by IlliniDave
Thu Oct 02, 2014 4:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there an "upper limit" on Boglehead theory?
Replies: 58
Views: 4493

Re: Am I crazy to try to tackle all 4 issues at once?

I would temporarily drop the 401 contribution and pay off the CC balance and car (seems like it wouldn't take long, less than a year, with a 6-figure income and hers on top of that). Then flesh out the emergency fund, then get a healthy contribution rate going to retirement. You'll be able to make u...
by IlliniDave
Thu Oct 02, 2014 7:02 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I crazy to try to tackle all 4 issues at once?
Replies: 29
Views: 3232

Re: Stock Dividend Yields & Share Buybacks — A Surprise

I'm still trying to wrap my mind around how net share buybacks are a "cash payout to shareholders" (as defined by Faber and others) — since the cash doesn't show up in my mutual fund account like dividends do. I can see that net buybacks reduce the number of shares outstanding, increasing...
by IlliniDave
Thu Oct 02, 2014 6:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Dividend Yields & Share Buybacks — A Surprise
Replies: 70
Views: 4850

Re: Will you invest in Bill Gross's new bond fund?

My simple answer is no I will not invest in Bill Gross-managed funds at Janus. Given the subject line question, I'm surprised a simple no was not an option. So that's my "something else".
by IlliniDave
Tue Sep 30, 2014 7:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will you invest in Bill Gross's new bond fund?
Replies: 51
Views: 3000

Re: Can I be held personally liable for things done at work?

mwm158 wrote:
I don't work for a responsible company, I work for the federal government.


I know I read it other than how you meant, but this sentence made me chuckle a little. :beer
by IlliniDave
Sun Sep 28, 2014 8:38 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I be held personally liable for things done at work?
Replies: 27
Views: 3941

Re: What's wrong with leverage?

If I had $99100 (or so) I could: 1. Buy $99,100 worth of SPY or 2. Deposit the 99,100 in a futures trading account and buy one e-mini SP500 contract The two strategies should be essentially identical so I doubt that a lot of investors would advise strongly against the second. Now if I reduced how m...
by IlliniDave
Sat Sep 27, 2014 5:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's wrong with leverage?
Replies: 15
Views: 1135

Re: What's Your Takeaway from 2014 High Valuation

I would be in the camp that relatively high values now probably implies somewhat blunted returns in the future. But I don't pretend to know what the path going forward will be. It could be relatively smooth but with a modest slope, it could be alternating periods of fast gains and offsetting losses,...
by IlliniDave
Sat Sep 27, 2014 5:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Your Takeaway from 2014 High Valuation
Replies: 52
Views: 4333

Re: POLL: Would you rather work half as long or half as ofte

I voted full time, half length. Cuts lifetime commuting in half, and commuting steals a big chunk of my life. I enjoy my work but there are other things I'd like to do where I'd prefer not to be distracted by ongoing employment. Plus, it's just my nature that I'm more comfortable getting stuff done ...
by IlliniDave
Thu Sep 25, 2014 11:38 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: POLL: Would you rather work half as long or half as often?
Replies: 68
Views: 4341

Re: Let's hear your Dave Ramsey success stories

I'm always impressed when I see people pay off "30 year mortgages" (as though paying off a 30 year early is more impressive than a 15 year) in 19 months. But whenever I'm listening to Dave's show it's always someone with a $60-120K house. I'm not even sure where you buy one of those, but ...
by IlliniDave
Thu Sep 25, 2014 4:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Let's hear your Dave Ramsey success stories
Replies: 32
Views: 4369

Re: When did you feel "Out of the Woods"?

I'm one of those people who probably never feels completely out of the woods. The woods are a scary place that can be quite resourceful in dealing out body blows. However, I reached a point where between even substantially sub-historical growth in my 401k (and no additional contributions) and SS I k...
by IlliniDave
Sat Sep 20, 2014 5:44 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When did you feel "Out of the Woods"?
Replies: 42
Views: 5491

Re: Retiree Next Door

(so much so that I've added the purchase of a small cabin in NE Mn to be my summer residence during my early retirement years). I live in Minnesota and I cannot tell you how glad I am that I Don't own a cabin anywhere! --- I know people with cabins and have visited them many times and see how much ...
by IlliniDave
Thu Sep 18, 2014 8:53 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retiree Next Door
Replies: 26
Views: 4501

Re: Retiree Next Door

I will say this; the retirees I have seen first hand (my parents, grandparents, and an uncle) live comfortably on social security and very meager savings. For example, my parents do just fine on modest social-security checks and a very small pension may dad receives (less than $800/month). They hav...
by IlliniDave
Thu Sep 18, 2014 7:45 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retiree Next Door
Replies: 26
Views: 4501

Retiree Next Door

This looks like something I might wind up reading, although I've never read an ebook proper. I've noted the dichotomy between what we BH participants typically feel we need at minimum to retire with a reasonable lifestyle and and what the statistical profiles of US households imply about retirement-...
by IlliniDave
Thu Sep 18, 2014 4:28 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retiree Next Door
Replies: 26
Views: 4501

Re: Owners Title Insurance - Optional

Thanks, that was helpful.
by IlliniDave
Thu Sep 18, 2014 4:10 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Owners Title Insurance - Optional
Replies: 3
Views: 489

Owners Title Insurance - Optional

I'm working on financing to buy a 3-season cabin in Minnesota. The lender tells me that title insurance is not required for the loan. I've always had it on my home (different state and lender required it edit: I may well be confusing buyer's and lender's TI here regarding the requirement, been a lon...
by IlliniDave
Wed Sep 17, 2014 5:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Owners Title Insurance - Optional
Replies: 3
Views: 489

Re: Experience w/financing for non-year round dwelling?

Okay, John, see what your saying. Thanks. Borrowing against my residence is an option to shed the unfavorable mortgage if I don't find another way around it. Calm man, you are correct, and my normal MO would be just to wait until I could buy in cash. But, one of my motives here is make this happen w...
by IlliniDave
Mon Sep 15, 2014 8:11 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Experience w/financing for non-year round dwelling?
Replies: 7
Views: 246

Re: Experience w/financing for non-year round dwelling?

IlliniDave, I'd still run this by your CPA. Just my $.02. I probably would if I had one. What aspect of it do you feel requires a CPAs attention? The real rub in all this is apparently the fact that the place can't be lived in year round, and I'm faced with an interest rate about 2% higher than it ...
by IlliniDave
Mon Sep 15, 2014 7:39 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Experience w/financing for non-year round dwelling?
Replies: 7
Views: 246

Re: Experience w/financing for non-year round dwelling?

We chose to pay-off our vacation (rental) property indebtedness with a re-fi on our principal residence. I assume the principles are the same. Even with a cash-out re-fi on our principal residence, the rate was ever so much lower than the existing rate on the vacation (rental) property. From a tax ...
by IlliniDave
Mon Sep 15, 2014 7:28 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Experience w/financing for non-year round dwelling?
Replies: 7
Views: 246

Experience w/financing for non-year round dwelling?

I trying to get a purchase agreement place to buy a 3-season (not suitable for winter habitation) cabin (well, septic, gas, electric, just not insulated well enough to protect water/septic lines from freezing) and have run into some reluctance by the sellers to sign the PA if I pursue financing from...
by IlliniDave
Mon Sep 15, 2014 7:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Experience w/financing for non-year round dwelling?
Replies: 7
Views: 246

Re: I've never been a fan of commodity funds

IlliniDave Of course you need to consider the results but also WHY they occurred as they did. If you invest in small value stocks and they have period of underperformance was the strategy wrong? When you buy insurance and you don't collect because the risks did not show up was the strategy of buyin...
by IlliniDave
Sun Sep 14, 2014 4:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I've never been a fan of commodity funds
Replies: 28
Views: 2348

Re: Suggestions /Advice for a fresh college graduate

Suggest/advice some choices for DS, who does not have a clue what he will be doing next. My 22 yr old son is an under graduate senior with Political Science major and Non Profit minor at a decent State University. He seems very vague as to what he wants to do next and seems to be looking for a job ...
by IlliniDave
Fri Sep 12, 2014 8:22 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Suggestions /Advice for a fresh college graduate
Replies: 29
Views: 1617
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