Search found 7406 matches

by HomerJ
Thu Jul 02, 2015 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emergdoc on Mr. Money Mustache
Replies: 186
Views: 17705

Re: Emergdoc on Mr. Money Mustache

People living on $25k a year don't get to spend a month in Hawaii. People making $25K a year do not spend a month in Hawaii if that means staying at the Hilton Hawaiian Village, eating fresh sushi every day, and sipping mai-tai's from the tiki bar while watching the sunset. But you would be surpris...
by HomerJ
Thu Jul 02, 2015 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emergdoc on Mr. Money Mustache
Replies: 186
Views: 17705

Re: Emergdoc on Mr. Money Mustache

haters gonna hate. I don't even know what that means in regards to this conversation. It's a shame. You can define retirement any way you like. No, you can't. I work 40 hours a week for a big company... Can I define retirement so I can tell everyone I'm retired? He busted his butt and lives a life ...
by HomerJ
Thu Jul 02, 2015 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emergdoc on Mr. Money Mustache
Replies: 186
Views: 17705

Re: Emergdoc on Mr. Money Mustache

I really don't understand why MMM gets so much crap from people. Deception. There is no deception. It is only deception when you are looking to tear it apart. He lives on $25K per year plus whatever extra bartering or labor for trade or freebies he gets. Well heck, I could claim I live on $10k a ye...
by HomerJ
Thu Jul 02, 2015 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emergdoc on Mr. Money Mustache
Replies: 186
Views: 17705

Re: Emergdoc on Mr. Money Mustache

Hey, regardless of what MMM does, once your mortgage is paid, living a happy life off $2000 a month is not that difficult. Think about it. Oh, I agree with that... Living in the Mid-west with a paid off house can be very cheap.... I mean, you can easily afford comfortable shelter with heat and air-...
by HomerJ
Thu Jul 02, 2015 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emergdoc on Mr. Money Mustache
Replies: 186
Views: 17705

Re: Emergdoc on Mr. Money Mustache

I think MMM is pretty ridiculous because the details don't really match the headlines. Not retired, not living on what he says he's living on, and does enjoy more expensive things as long as he can find someone else to foot the bill (but then, I ask, why not just pay for the darn things yourself so...
by HomerJ
Wed Jul 01, 2015 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emergdoc on Mr. Money Mustache
Replies: 186
Views: 17705

Re: Emergdoc on Mr. Money Mustache

From MMM's article My favorite part of every weekday is cycling with my son to school. The morning temperature at this time of year is right around the freezing mark, and I make a point of wearing just a bit less warm clothing than I need for complete comfort. “Don’t you need a bigger coat?”, my wif...
by HomerJ
Wed Jul 01, 2015 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emergdoc on Mr. Money Mustache
Replies: 186
Views: 17705

Re: Emergdoc on Mr. Money Mustache

Working for the man doesn't suck. It's not working for the man that sucks. It's working for the man because you are too poor to stop . It's like this. You're on a date with an attractive person who is smart and funny and interesting. And they have a handgun on the table, having informed you that yo...
by HomerJ
Wed Jul 01, 2015 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emergdoc on Mr. Money Mustache
Replies: 186
Views: 17705

Re: Emergdoc on Mr. Money Mustache

And you sure don't need money to quit a poor job. You just quit and get a job you enjoy. This... MMM is a weird duck... Maybe he does indeed enjoy the physical labor... He spends hundreds of hours working very menial labor so he doesn't have to spend tens of hours working using his brain in front o...
by HomerJ
Wed Jul 01, 2015 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emergdoc on Mr. Money Mustache
Replies: 186
Views: 17705

Re: Emergdoc on Mr. Money Mustache

They say money can't buy happiness.

Well, we bought a jetski this spring.

I haven't seen any of my family or friends look sad while riding that jetski.

So maybe money CAN buy happiness.
by HomerJ
Mon Jun 29, 2015 11:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 378
Views: 31821

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB124303417991748685. Did you guys read this? For Mr. Asness, the losses were especially painful. He and several other partners started the firm in 1998 after leaving Goldman Sachs Group Inc., where they had launched the Global Alpha fund. He built his returns on the ide...
by HomerJ
Mon Jun 29, 2015 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 378
Views: 31821

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Yesterdaysnews wrote:Down 0.61% today when S&P 500 down 2.09% - not bad.


Total Bond Market Index Fund was UP 0.66% today...

I'm really not sure what you people think you are accomplishing here.

Plain old stocks/bonds seems to be working just fine for diversification today.
by HomerJ
Mon Jun 29, 2015 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 378
Views: 31821

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

The fees are another big issue for me. I am reluctant to pay 1% for a known strategy with a skilled implementer (Sequoia) so why should I pay 1.5% to strategy that is not totally known and the implementer who has a short track record with this strategy and had a blow up in one of his funds (AQR Abs...
by HomerJ
Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: dow futures down 200+ points
Replies: 84
Views: 9057

Re: dow futures down 200+ points

Stocks had gotten a bit ahead of themselves which can happen in a bull market. And all it takes is for investors to get spooked, or a Black Swan, to bring stocks back to earth. Here is a quick "quant" calculation based on Friday's closing prices, i.e. S & P 500 closing price of 2101.6...
by HomerJ
Fri Jun 26, 2015 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook
Replies: 108
Views: 7978

Re: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook

Look, I don't necessarily agree with Pfau and others' modeling assumptions and predictions, but it's not very useful to misrepresent their points and also look at three years of data to say "I told you so." You are correct. Their models may even be 100% spot-on with a 1% chance of the sto...
by HomerJ
Fri Jun 26, 2015 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook
Replies: 108
Views: 7978

Re: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook

I don't think anybody is predicting that you will get exactly 2.2% each year, are they? It's the annualized average return they're talking about. Wait for 10 years and check back. Oh, sure.. they may be right... We may end up with only 2.2% annualized average return from 2012-2022. But it doesn't i...
by HomerJ
Fri Jun 26, 2015 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook
Replies: 108
Views: 7978

Re: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook

Now for the depressing part. The real return of bonds is currently 0% while that of stocks is 3.7%. Do the math and that's a 2.2% real return for a 60/40 portfolio. That puts the current real returns from stocks in a historical 8th percentile and bonds in the 3rd percentile. What does he mean by &q...
by HomerJ
Thu Jun 25, 2015 9:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it worth aspiring to get more?
Replies: 131
Views: 16857

Re: Is it worth aspiring to get more?

No one is talking about regret AFTER you're dead... Regret happens when the doctor tells you that the reason you have trouble breathing is because you have Stage IV cancer and six months to live. Here's a question to ask yourself... If you were told you had 6 months to live, would you choose to con...
by HomerJ
Thu Jun 25, 2015 9:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it worth aspiring to get more?
Replies: 131
Views: 16857

Re: Is it worth aspiring to get more?

I still think there is a big difference between someone who may well live another 40 years and while they have enough, more still has some value and someone with the same amount and gets the message you will live only 6 more months. I would retire now if I knew I was going to die in 6 months but I ...
by HomerJ
Thu Jun 25, 2015 4:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it worth aspiring to get more?
Replies: 131
Views: 16857

Re: Is it worth aspiring to get more?

No one is talking about regret AFTER you're dead... Regret happens when the doctor tells you that the reason you have trouble breathing is because you have Stage IV cancer and six months to live. Here's a question to ask yourself... If you were told you had 6 months to live, would you choose to con...
by HomerJ
Thu Jun 25, 2015 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?
Replies: 218
Views: 20286

Re: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?

My follow up question would be, what if there was a Great Depression II? What lessons did everyone learn from 2008? What is your new approach? It seems very reasonable that people can lose their jobs at any time. and have their accounts cut in half with a market crash. I paid off my house, even tho...
by HomerJ
Thu Jun 25, 2015 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25
Replies: 331
Views: 26362

Re: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25

Rx... read your signature "The investor’s chief problem – and even his worst enemy – is likely to be himself." Benjamin Graham This is why I choose buy and hold. It's not easy for an investor to see PE10 at 25, drop back to their minimum stock allocation, and then watch the market continue...
by HomerJ
Thu Jun 25, 2015 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25
Replies: 331
Views: 26362

Re: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25

http://www.mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/5.png I'd like to see the chart with 20 year actual returns or 30 year actual returns, and watch it all smooth out... When people quote that the market has returned 10% (or so) over the long-term, that INCLUDES periods of high valuation and poor re...
by HomerJ
Thu Jun 25, 2015 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25
Replies: 331
Views: 26362

Re: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25

If you'd followed valuations, there would have been a point in the 90s when, at very least, you'd have considered increasing your cash or bonds Here's my main point... You didn't NEED to make any changes to your portfolio... PE10 valuations would have told you to start increasing cash or bonds in 1...
by HomerJ
Thu Jun 25, 2015 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25
Replies: 331
Views: 26362

Re: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25

Trouble is, you need to know which "sensible strategy" to use BEFOREHAND, not after the fact... Sure, it's possible tax-sheltered cash savers may beat the market going forward... Is that an easy "sensible strategy" to use starting today (and for how long)? If you'd followed valu...
by HomerJ
Wed Jun 24, 2015 11:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25
Replies: 331
Views: 26362

Re: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25

4. Buy-and-hold is dependent on market direction, and there hasn't been much in the 21st century .. Anyone could've beaten the Japanese market since the 80s by simply holding cash .. Another correction in the US and tax-sheltered cash savers could be 'beating the market' Trouble is, you need to kno...
by HomerJ
Wed Jun 24, 2015 10:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it worth aspiring to get more?
Replies: 131
Views: 16857

Re: Is it worth aspiring to get more?

No one is talking about regret AFTER you're dead... Regret happens when the doctor tells you that the reason you have trouble breathing is because you have Stage IV cancer and six months to live. Here's a question to ask yourself... If you were told you had 6 months to live, would you choose to cont...
by HomerJ
Wed Jun 24, 2015 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25
Replies: 331
Views: 26362

Re: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25

Will Rogers once said...

"Only buy stocks that go up... If they don't go up, don't buy them"
by HomerJ
Wed Jun 24, 2015 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25
Replies: 331
Views: 26362

Re: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25

Right now, the market looks roughly 2x overvalued .. What's scary is the fact that you actually think you know what the market value SHOULD be... e.g. When tech stocks looked overvalued, fund managers (such as Alice Handy and Neil Woodford) did get out 2 or 3 years early .. They didn't sit in cash,...
by HomerJ
Wed Jun 24, 2015 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25
Replies: 331
Views: 26362

Re: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25

I'm sure we've seen this chart, where the green line represents buy-and-hold US stocks only when CAPE is below 20, and otherwise hold bonds .. Well over 20 years, you'd wind up in about the same place Hmm.. could that be because we've been in a bond bull market for the past 30 years, where bonds ha...
by HomerJ
Wed Jun 24, 2015 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25
Replies: 331
Views: 26362

Re: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25

Even more interesting is that price over sales is now 1.8, it appears to be higher than both prior bubbles according to multpl.com. Considering these elevated measures, the pending increase in rates, Greek debt crisis and lagging fundamentals, changing your allocations a little bit to spread out or...
by HomerJ
Wed Jun 24, 2015 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do Bonds perform in market crashes?
Replies: 9
Views: 1323

Re: How do Bonds perform in market crashes?

Here's how Total Bond Market did during the last crash.... Note it has a lot of U.S. Treasuries, but also some corporate bonds http://s23.postimg.org/pcw196dbv/10_year_bond_vs_stock.png I was VERY happy I was 40% Total Bond Market Index Fund during the last crash. Kept me from panic when stocks drop...
by HomerJ
Tue Jun 23, 2015 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best Advice [Best single piece of advice to give a new investor]
Replies: 56
Views: 4463

Re: Best Advice [Best single piece of advice to give a new investor]

I don't have any problems living in a 3000 sq ft 4 br 3.5 ba cardboard box. You were also a doctor, correct? Yes, one can start at 50% savings if one jumps to $150k+ after residency. Incorrect. My annual compensation has never reached $150K in my entire life. My spouse's income has never reached $9...
by HomerJ
Tue Jun 23, 2015 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best Advice [Best single piece of advice to give a new investor]
Replies: 56
Views: 4463

Re: Best Advice [Best single piece of advice to give a new investor]

I don't have any problems living in a 3000 sq ft 4 br 3.5 ba cardboard box. You were also a doctor, correct? Yes, one can start at 50% savings if one jumps to $150k+ after residency. My advice works for a lot more people, start at 5% when you get your first $30k job out of school, and save half you...
by HomerJ
Tue Jun 23, 2015 4:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Convince me not to buy Porsche
Replies: 132
Views: 8606

Re: Convince me not to buy Porsche

And just to clarify, don't have a motorcycle, its my road bike...I ride about 150 miles a week so I got a nice bike. Biking cars and skiing are my hobbies, and unfortunately they are not cheap, but what is these days? There are a ton of cheap hobbies.... It's okay that the hobbies that you like are...
by HomerJ
Tue Jun 23, 2015 2:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it worth aspiring to get more?
Replies: 131
Views: 16857

Re: Is it worth aspiring to get more?

What do you do on weekends or vacations? Don't you ever feel like doing MORE of that on a Monday instead of going to work? I'm still curious if you could answer this question... What do you do on weekends? I spent my weekend jet-skiing, grilling a nice dinner for my extended family, and giving my k...
by HomerJ
Tue Jun 23, 2015 2:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it worth aspiring to get more?
Replies: 131
Views: 16857

Re: Is it worth aspiring to get more?

First let me say for everyone who has lost someone they know, love or admire I am truly sorry for your loss. That said my death is of zero concern to me in regards to retirement because I am not going to have fears or regrets from that point on. Now the death of my wife, loved ones or pets does mat...
by HomerJ
Tue Jun 23, 2015 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best Advice [Best single piece of advice to give a new investor]
Replies: 56
Views: 4463

Re: Best Advice

livesoft wrote:Save and invest half your before-tax income from age 16 to retirement.


This advice is pretty unrealistic, but it's very similar to my advice above...

I say start with 5% savings, instead of 50%... but then we agree to save 50% of all raises from then on...
by HomerJ
Tue Jun 23, 2015 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best Advice [Best single piece of advice to give a new investor]
Replies: 56
Views: 4463

Re: Best Advice

Save 5% of your salary from your first job, and from then on, save half your raises.

Not very painful, your standard of living will go up, and your saving rate will go up even faster.
by HomerJ
Tue Jun 23, 2015 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it worth aspiring to get more?
Replies: 131
Views: 16857

Re: Is it worth aspiring to get more?

having a mentally stimulating job, working with smart people I like for good compensation is not a bad day at all. What do you do on weekends or vacations? Don't you ever feel like doing MORE of that on a Monday instead of going to work? If you can't think of anything better to do with your time, t...
by HomerJ
Tue Jun 23, 2015 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?
Replies: 218
Views: 20286

Re: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?

Close to the end of 2008, 1.5 million people were out of a job in less than 3 months . News reports said the original money market fund was “breaking the buck” and people were losing money in what was supposed to be a “super safe” investment that could be viewed practically the same as cash. Layere...
by HomerJ
Tue Jun 23, 2015 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?
Replies: 218
Views: 20286

Re: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?

Real time 2008? There were not a lot of people on this board talking about what a glorious opportunity it was to buy low. When you're in the middle of it you have no earthly idea where the bottom is. Yeah VERY few posts here were about the opportunities of buying low... It was mostly trying to keep...
by HomerJ
Tue Jun 23, 2015 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?
Replies: 218
Views: 20286

Re: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?

I had no problem "not selling"... I knew I was going to ride the market all the way down and (hopefully) back up again. I did rebalance once a little (selling bonds, and buying stocks) when the DOW dropped below 10,000... but it kept on dropping, and there was a lot of talk of total financ...
by HomerJ
Mon Jun 22, 2015 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Made outsize returns in a short period of time: what am I doing wrong?
Replies: 34
Views: 4608

Re: Made outsize returns in a short period of time: what am I doing wrong?

while the other half chases big and relatively sure bets (i.e, high possibility of upside, low potential for downside) with minimal hedging. Do you really believe (1) there are big and relatively sure bets? And (2) You're one of the very few who can identify them? Because it's not enough that they ...
by HomerJ
Mon Jun 22, 2015 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Role of annuities in low SWR situations
Replies: 29
Views: 3272

Re: Role of annuities in low SWR situations

I do not see a financial need for a SPIA. If there would be a psychological benefit, I think it is worth considering. However, your parents have been managing money for a very long time - my guess is they are comfortable with the management aspects. Unless dementia sets in at 85 or 90. At their age...
by HomerJ
Mon Jun 22, 2015 9:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tech jobs - is job-hopping the best way to get ahead?
Replies: 89
Views: 11550

Re: Tech jobs - is job-hopping the best way to get ahead?

My experience is managers say they don't like job hoppers but when they get a strong resume from one who happens to have ALL the skills they want then they usually prefer the hopper. Again, it depends on how fast one job-hops... If you stay at least 2-3 years at most jobs, then a good manager knows...
by HomerJ
Sun Jun 21, 2015 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "4% Rule" revisited
Replies: 102
Views: 13339

Re: The "4% Rule" revisited

A 95% likelihood of being OK is arbitrary but seems to be a common place to draw the line. Something that should be pointed out that the 5% "failure" is not eating dog food under a bridge... When I say 4% SWR, I'm assuming that 4% does not provide bare-bones survival, but is enough to kee...
by HomerJ
Sun Jun 21, 2015 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "4% Rule" revisited
Replies: 102
Views: 13339

Re: Smart or lucky ?

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Taylor, although wise beyond his years, and respected by all, really retired at the absolute best time in the history of the world.

HomerJ:

Some people are smart. Others, like me, are just lucky.

Best wishes.
Taylor


Always better to be lucky than smart! But I think you're both... :)
by HomerJ
Sun Jun 21, 2015 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "4% Rule" revisited
Replies: 102
Views: 13339

Re: Obvious Flaws in the 4% Rule

Second, my point is just that a constant rule that doesn't take into account age at start of withdrawals and initial market conditions at start of withdrawals is fundamentally flawed. Consider starting withdrawals at the right before a bear market or at the start of a bull market. The result will b...
by HomerJ
Sun Jun 21, 2015 9:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tech jobs - is job-hopping the best way to get ahead?
Replies: 89
Views: 11550

Re: Tech jobs - is job-hopping the best way to get ahead?

You just answered your own question. Companies don't pay existing employees more because they usually don't have to. They're businesses, not charities. Not very good at business to lose 6 months of productivity from a good worker leaving (bad workers are the ones who are more likely to stay, since ...

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