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Re: Can you really know your AA until you've hit a bear mark

Buying stocks is unthinkable. Why? In my opinion, "bad" bear markets are the absolute best time to buy stocks because they're so cheap. You get more for your money. At the ripe old age of 30, I'm actually looking forward to a bear market from a portfolio growth standpoint. The markets wil...
by HomerJ
Fri Mar 27, 2015 10:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can you really know your AA until you've hit a bear market?
Replies: 70
Views: 4681

Re: Wise move to move some $ to cash before bear market?

I just read an article that described how to prepare for a bear market and listed the history of the previous bear markets over time. Since we are at an all time high , a bear market is coming , nobody knows when. The author suggested taking 20%- 30 % and putting it in cash to hold and buy in the b...
by HomerJ
Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wise move to move some $ to cash before bear market?
Replies: 64
Views: 5303

Re: Wise move to move some $ to cash before bear market?

But, it sure seems if somebody took out 30% and put it in cash at the right time, he would be sitting pretty. What if the market keeps going up? Ah, you said, "at the right time"... Well sure, that sounds easy enough. :oops: Look, the trick to determining an AA is just assume a 50% crash ...
by HomerJ
Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wise move to move some $ to cash before bear market?
Replies: 64
Views: 5303

Re: Can I Afford This House?

Total Net Income - $11,200 Total Expenses -- $10,580 No, you can't afford the house unless you get your expenses lower (or your income higher)... At least $400-$1400 a month lower... At your very high income level, I'd want to see at least $1000 a month of free cash flow, and $2000 a month would be...
by HomerJ
Thu Mar 26, 2015 4:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I Afford This House?
Replies: 13
Views: 1174

Re: Should I accept this Job Offer ?

Do you have a history of job hopping? How long were you at the job before this? I'm all for changing jobs for big raises, since MegaCorp rarely gives big raises, but you don't want to change jobs too often, or you may jump into a new job, discover you hate it, but then be unable to get out because y...
by HomerJ
Wed Mar 25, 2015 10:43 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I accept this Job Offer ?
Replies: 22
Views: 1737

Re: Should I accept this Job Offer ?

gbru316 wrote:If you could see yourself regretting not taking the job down the road, take the job.


On the other hand, if you could see yourself regretting taking the job down the road, you better not take it...

:)
by HomerJ
Wed Mar 25, 2015 10:37 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I accept this Job Offer ?
Replies: 22
Views: 1737

Re: Tax Differed Variable Annuity

Bogleheads, I have been reading about Tax Differed Variable Annuities and trying to decide if it is the right thing for me. Your opinion would be very helpful for me. I am 27 years old and married. My wife and I both work. We max out our 401ks and Roth IRAs every year. We have about $250K combined ...
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 23, 2015 8:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Differed Variable Annuity
Replies: 16
Views: 1131

Re: Whats a good Pistol to buy?

Mr-et-Mrs-R wrote:Learn how to fire while under stress or duress.


How does one learn this?
by HomerJ
Fri Mar 20, 2015 2:52 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Whats a good Pistol to buy?
Replies: 109
Views: 7755

Re: Recruiters asking for current compensation

My strategy would be to give them what they ask but then make it irrelevant by making clear what your expected salary range is. SpaceMonkey, But, in many employers, the HR policy limit the pay raise to X% (15 to 20??) over your current pay. So, once you tell HR your current salary, you had limited ...
by HomerJ
Fri Mar 20, 2015 1:37 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Recruiters asking for current compensation
Replies: 51
Views: 4056

Re: job offer, 2x salary

problem with moving is that wife works in opposite direction by 20 minutes. So, thats not an option. Sure it is an option. Your spouse can get a new job, too. :) Heck, she can probably retire... 2x salary opens a LOT of doors. What if the wife is making a 7-figure salary? Victoria Then I doubt the ...
by HomerJ
Thu Mar 19, 2015 1:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: job offer, 2x salary
Replies: 53
Views: 4814

Re: job offer, 2x salary

livesoft wrote:
sambb wrote:problem with moving is that wife works in opposite direction by 20 minutes. So, thats not an option.

Sure it is an option. Your spouse can get a new job, too. :)


Heck, she can probably retire... 2x salary opens a LOT of doors.
by HomerJ
Thu Mar 19, 2015 1:23 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: job offer, 2x salary
Replies: 53
Views: 4814

Re: 74% of car loans are subprime.

How is this actionable (other than not taking out a high interest rate car loan yourself)? There will always be lots of people doing financially stupid things. Ignore them. Ignore them until they take down the entire economy? One could ignore all the dumb people who bought more house they could aff...
by HomerJ
Thu Mar 19, 2015 12:55 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 74% of car loans are subprime.
Replies: 29
Views: 2012

Re: Recruiters asking for current compensation

yoasif wrote:My own strategy would be (based on the current research) to decline to offer my current salary, but offer a range offer with the lower number representing what you "want".


This.
by HomerJ
Thu Mar 19, 2015 8:32 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Recruiters asking for current compensation
Replies: 51
Views: 4056

Re: Recruiters asking for current compensation

TRC wrote:FWIW - I'm in the final stages of accepting an offer and the employer requires 5 years of W2s.


Wow... I've never seen that before... That seems almost illegal. But my gut instincts have been wrong before... :)
by HomerJ
Thu Mar 19, 2015 8:30 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Recruiters asking for current compensation
Replies: 51
Views: 4056

Re: Recruiters asking for current compensation

boombaz wrote:Although I have rebuffed them for now, some of them implied that they would ask again before onsite interviews to make sure we are not wasting each other's time.


Tell them what you are looking for, not your current compensation... That will solve the above problem.
by HomerJ
Thu Mar 19, 2015 8:29 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Recruiters asking for current compensation
Replies: 51
Views: 4056

Re: job offer, 2x salary

Do you want to retire in 20 years or 10 years? :)
by HomerJ
Wed Mar 18, 2015 7:49 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: job offer, 2x salary
Replies: 53
Views: 4814

Re: Got a promotion, but still need to discuss salary

20% is a very good raise... Usually, you have to leave the company to get a raise like that.

(Unless you started at $20k 6 years ago).
by HomerJ
Tue Mar 17, 2015 8:57 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Got a promotion, but still need to discuss salary
Replies: 9
Views: 1302

Re: Why the popularity of dividends? What's the counterargum

Timely article. Total return vs. income and dividends in today's WSJ. http://www.wsj.com/articles/whats-the-best-way-for-retirees-to-invest-their-nest-egg-1426475052 Edited to add: After reading the article, I would note that this discussion is several orders of magnitude better than the article. :...
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 16, 2015 2:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the popularity of dividends? What's the counterargument?
Replies: 70
Views: 4999

Re: Rental Property

I have been sitting on the sidelines reading for months, my first post. 39 yrs. old, 400K in a 401K, I contribute the max allowable each year. Just over 100K in emergency funds. Rather than invest in additional IRAs I am currently putting any non-expense income towards principle on the mortgage. My...
by HomerJ
Mon Mar 16, 2015 10:59 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rental Property
Replies: 22
Views: 1763

Re: Why the popularity of dividends? What's the counterargum

I see it mentioned very often in financial articles (like http://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0812/how-to-live-off-your-dividends.aspx ), on other financial forums, many people in the world have the perception that "dividend" stocks are preferred to non-"dividend" stocks....
by HomerJ
Sun Mar 15, 2015 10:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the popularity of dividends? What's the counterargument?
Replies: 70
Views: 4999

Re: Do you really need 2.5 million to retire well?

25 times my pre-retirement income is ideal. So, if I make $50,000 a year at 59, then a portfolio of $1,250,000 should be enough for me to retire at 60. It's not income that matters, it's expenses... If you make $50,000 a year, pay $3000 in payroll taxes (6% of every check), and save $5000, you don'...
by HomerJ
Fri Mar 13, 2015 10:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you really need 2.5 million to retire well?
Replies: 121
Views: 12755

Re: When to cash in your chips?

You're not financially independent - you're on your way, but given your lifestyle and level of debt not there yet. How much in gains are embedded in those taxable investments? You are financially independent when you have 30-35x your net annual living expenses including the annual cost of health ca...
by HomerJ
Fri Mar 13, 2015 10:13 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When to cash in your chips?
Replies: 32
Views: 3907

Re: Do you really need 2.5 million to retire well?

By "price-rationed," I merely mean not covered by subsidized insurance, so that there is a substantial out-of-pocket component. And I am thinking of technologies that will augment our own performance, not merely treat diseases. It is dangerous to speculate, but I would expect that there w...
by HomerJ
Thu Mar 12, 2015 12:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you really need 2.5 million to retire well?
Replies: 121
Views: 12755

Re: Do you really need 2.5 million to retire well?

I would not feel comfortable to retire with 2.5 million if I were to stay in North California.. but for several parts of U.S., this would be a sufficient amount for my standard of living. Change "several parts of the U.S." to "the vast majority - probably 95% - of the U.S", and ...
by HomerJ
Thu Mar 12, 2015 12:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you really need 2.5 million to retire well?
Replies: 121
Views: 12755

Re: Do you really need 2.5 million to retire well?

Money is not the only axis. You need time to spend your money too. I think you have to figure out the balance between the likelihood of running out of money, or running out of time. It's a good point. Furthermore, the longer one works, the shorter his or her total lifespan becomes, because most job...
by HomerJ
Thu Mar 12, 2015 10:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you really need 2.5 million to retire well?
Replies: 121
Views: 12755

Re: Do you really need 2.5 million to retire well?

I am surprised by the number of people who are comfortable that they can live well on $50,000/yr. Granted the definition of well is a bit squishy but after all the I have $3 million in investable assets threads these responses were unexpected. Like others have said, it all depends on the individual...
by HomerJ
Thu Mar 12, 2015 10:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you really need 2.5 million to retire well?
Replies: 121
Views: 12755

Re: Do you really need 2.5 million to retire well?

Caduceus wrote:Money is not the only axis. You need time to spend your money too. I think you have to figure out the balance between the likelihood of running out of money, or running out of time.


This. Living well also includes having TIME to do the things you love.
by HomerJ
Thu Mar 12, 2015 10:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you really need 2.5 million to retire well?
Replies: 121
Views: 12755

Re: Do you really need 2.5 million to retire well?

But I could easily retire on a million and a paid off house... I will admit I am shooting for 2 million and a paid-off house, so I have a great cushion, and the wife will be happier with a few more luxuries (mostly more trips for vacations or to visit children/grandchildren) Would you really be &qu...
by HomerJ
Thu Mar 12, 2015 9:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you really need 2.5 million to retire well?
Replies: 121
Views: 12755

Re: What are some common misconceptions found in this forum?

livesoft wrote:An emergency fund needs to be kept in cash like CDs or a savings accounts because one needs instant access to 6 months of expenses on a Wednesday morning.


I can think of one reason why I'd want to be able access a lot of cash on a Wednesday morning.

Bail money. :)
by HomerJ
Wed Mar 11, 2015 7:53 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are some common misconceptions found in this forum?
Replies: 209
Views: 17028

Re: When does market timing make sense?

^ That's exactly my point. Wait for a really bad day to buy more with my cash which turns it into a really GOOD day. I think we're saying the same thing. Right? Except the market may rise another 5% over the next 2 months, and then that 2% one-day drop isn't really that good a day for you. To use y...
by HomerJ
Wed Mar 11, 2015 3:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When does market timing make sense?
Replies: 34
Views: 1436

Re: When does market timing make sense?

Say you wait until June, there is a 5% drop between now and then, and you jump in.... there is then another 5% drop after that. How do you feel then? Say you wait until June, and the market goes UP 5% between now and then, and you finally jump in... and then there's a 10% drop after that... How do ...
by HomerJ
Wed Mar 11, 2015 3:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When does market timing make sense?
Replies: 34
Views: 1436

Re: Do you really need 2.5 million to retire well?

Of course, another critical data element is age of retirement. This is a good point... My goal is $2 million (and a paid-off house) at 55... Now, if I hit $2 million at 53-54... I may retire a year early (or more likely, look for part-time work)... If I hit 55 and I'm still "only" at $1.8...
by HomerJ
Wed Mar 11, 2015 3:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you really need 2.5 million to retire well?
Replies: 121
Views: 12755

Re: If 2% is real, we are . . . . ?

Lots of people forget about two important parts of these numbers. The first is that the 4% SWR survived a heck of a lot of terrible economic events, including the Great Depression. What exactly do you think is going to happen in your investment lifetime that is worse than the Great Depression, Worl...
by HomerJ
Wed Mar 11, 2015 1:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If 2% is real, we are . . . . ?
Replies: 63
Views: 6234

Re: Do you really need 2.5 million to retire well?

Even moderate to high earners don't need that much... Here's the example I often use... $100k family saves $10k a year pays $24k a year on a mortgage pays $6k in payroll taxes really living on $60k a year... In retirement, you won't need to save, pay a mortgage, or pay payroll taxes, so there's 40 T...
by HomerJ
Wed Mar 11, 2015 1:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you really need 2.5 million to retire well?
Replies: 121
Views: 12755

Re: Do you really need 2.5 million to retire well?

FYI: http://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/do-you-really-need-2-5-million-retire-well-n321466 It seems like a large number for most people. If true, it sure seems like Bogleheads are best equipped to reach - and help others reach - that goal. "Most" people live on $50k a year now... So...
by HomerJ
Wed Mar 11, 2015 1:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you really need 2.5 million to retire well?
Replies: 121
Views: 12755

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

Anyone know bond returns from 1940 to 1970? Before inflation went crazy? For the period 1940-1970 investment grade corporate bonds provided an annualized nominal return of 2.3% and Treasury bonds returned 1.9%. That's the "good" news. CPI averaged 3.4% from 1940-1970, "before inflati...
by HomerJ
Wed Mar 11, 2015 10:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22884

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

HomerJ, The 5 year treasury went from 3.36 on 1/1/2004 to 3.45 on 12/31/2007, with a lot of volatility inbetween. So I do not think your chart accurately depicts the effect of a rising rate environment on TBM. Hmm.. you are correct... I stand corrected. I wonder why 2-year bonds rose so rapidly whi...
by HomerJ
Wed Mar 11, 2015 10:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22884

Re: Who's going to Disney this summer?

555 wrote:Summer is not a good time to go.


The best time to go is 1963.
by HomerJ
Wed Mar 11, 2015 10:31 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who's going to Disney this summer?
Replies: 84
Views: 5096

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

Clearly_Irrational wrote: Bond returns 1928-2014 are not zero and I do not expect them to be so going forward despite the heavy intervention of the Fed. However bond returns starting from a very low interest rate environment like we have today, the period of 1940 - 1980 produced negative real retur...
by HomerJ
Tue Mar 10, 2015 11:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22884

Re: Who's going to Disney this summer?

We always rented a condo with a full kitchen, and then spent the first morning hitting Wal-Mart and stocking up for the week... MUCH cheaper than staying at a hotel, and eating at restaurants all week. We made sure to rent a condo that was part of a big complex with a fun pool... Then we'd spend 1 d...
by HomerJ
Tue Mar 10, 2015 10:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who's going to Disney this summer?
Replies: 84
Views: 5096

Re: 24 hours only -- YNAB program on sale for $15 (normally

This thread was linked by a pay-off-your-mortgage thread back on January 13, 2011 (here is that thread: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=66692) Since then the total US stock market index fund returned about 14% annually which was way more than the mortgage interest. Clearly, ...
by HomerJ
Tue Mar 10, 2015 5:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 24 hours only -- YNAB program on sale for $15 (normally $60)
Replies: 6
Views: 1780

Re: Mr. Money Mustache: Hero or Foolish?

30 year bond returns will be lower in the next 30 years then in the last 30 years. That is a statement of fact that you can read from the yields. Talking about shorter term bonds is more difficult, but interest rates would have to go up really fast for future bond returns to look anything like the ...
by HomerJ
Sat Mar 07, 2015 11:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache: Hero or Foolish?
Replies: 452
Views: 71032

Re: Does My Daughter Need A Prenup?

If I understand the OP correctly, the daughter has nothing to protect. A prenup is ill advised in this scenario. What does she currently have that would be worth protecting? Her future earnings will be subject to division anyway in the event of a divorce, regardless of what the prenup suggests. Pre...
by HomerJ
Fri Mar 06, 2015 2:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does My Daughter Need A Prenup?
Replies: 175
Views: 5833

Re: Wife tired of saving...

Definitely let her drive the Lexus every day... Penny wise, pound foolish... Trying to save money on gas is going to cost you big time, when she talks you into getting a BMW. My wife drives an Infiniti... I drive a Honda Civic... We're both happy, and I didn't have to buy TWO luxury cars to keep her...
by HomerJ
Thu Mar 05, 2015 12:35 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wife tired of saving...
Replies: 203
Views: 19214

Re: Wife tired of saving...

My wife' s sister + family also seem to enjoy their money and have told us few times that if they had our kinda money, they would have lived way better. I don't really have much advice for you. But this line kinda irked me for some reason. If they lived way better, they wouldn't have that kind of m...
by HomerJ
Wed Mar 04, 2015 6:28 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wife tired of saving...
Replies: 203
Views: 19214

Re: Wife tired of saving...

Wife and I have had the same mindset since we meet and got married. Fast Forward 16 years and a net worth of 1.9m, she is tired of saving and not doing much with the money. We have 2 kids (9 and 2) and live in a townhome but now she wants to move to a larger home. The townhome is enough but every s...
by HomerJ
Wed Mar 04, 2015 6:28 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wife tired of saving...
Replies: 203
Views: 19214

Re: College savings costs / number

On the other hand, if your child gets into Harvard, it will cost you $500,000. No, your kid will go free to a different school. Studies have shown that people who get ACCEPTED to Harvard but don't go end up just as successful as those who actually attend Harvard. In other words, Harvard has nothing...
by HomerJ
Thu Feb 12, 2015 11:03 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College savings costs / number
Replies: 120
Views: 6731

Re: College savings costs / number

I sent both my daughters to University of Kansas... In-state school... One got a journalism degree, the other a nursing degree... Total cost about $15k a year for first one (2004-2007), and about $20k a year for the second one (2010-2014)... Nursing school is a little more expensive, that's not all ...
by HomerJ
Thu Feb 12, 2015 1:03 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College savings costs / number
Replies: 120
Views: 6731

Re: College savings costs / number

On the other hand, if your child gets into Harvard, it will cost you $500,000. No, your kid will go free to a different school. Studies have shown that people who get ACCEPTED to Harvard but don't go end up just as successful as those who actually attend Harvard. In other words, Harvard has nothing...
by HomerJ
Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:58 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College savings costs / number
Replies: 120
Views: 6731

Re: How much is a safe car worth?

I'm reminded of the study where 93% of drivers rated themselves as better than the median. Overconfidence Effect :thumbsup Some people think we humans are as perfect as God: I could see an argument if your inexperienced children were driving your cars, but you cannot say that safety features (like ...
by HomerJ
Wed Feb 11, 2015 9:18 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much is a safe car worth?
Replies: 170
Views: 9197
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