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by HomerJ
Wed May 06, 2015 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1929 was a great year to buy stocks
Replies: 39
Views: 1664

Re: 1929 was a great year to buy stocks

But any time between Nov, 1929 and the end of WWII was an even better time to buy stocks, as was most of the 1970s. You're not getting the point... People post here constantly about being fearful of buying at the top of the market... Many people trot out PE10 charts to show how the markets are over...
by HomerJ
Wed May 06, 2015 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1929 was a great year to buy stocks
Replies: 39
Views: 1664

Re: 1929 was a great year to buy stocks

But any time between Nov, 1929 and the end of WWII was an even better time to buy stocks, as was most of the 1970s. You're not getting the point... People post here constantly about being fearful of buying at the top of the market... Many people trot out PE10 charts to show how the markets are over...
by HomerJ
Wed May 06, 2015 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1929 was a great year to buy stocks
Replies: 39
Views: 1664

Re: 1929 was a great year to buy stocks

letsgobobby wrote:That's great if you have 30 years to wait.


Aren't you 40-something?
by HomerJ
Wed May 06, 2015 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gross: stockbug alert, future investment returns will be miniscule
Replies: 63
Views: 4459

Re: Gross: stockbug alert, future investment returns will be miniscule

The market is near all-time highs and from what I read in various articles, there are a lot of people who seem very worried about this. You get the feeling that people are ready to jump off bridges! This certainly isn't the euphoria that I saw in 1999 and early 2000. Maynard F. Speer said, "We...
by HomerJ
Wed May 06, 2015 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gross: stockbug alert, future investment returns will be miniscule
Replies: 63
Views: 4459

Re: Gross: stockbug alert, future investment returns will be miniscule

Whoops. Your Shiller PE10 chart is out of date. It now stands at 27.34, higher than it's ever been except before the unpleasantry in 1929 and the latter 1990s. But we know from many authoritative sources that "this time is different", so not to worry. So far, it's never been different. An...
by HomerJ
Wed May 06, 2015 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gross: stockbug alert, future investment returns will be miniscule
Replies: 63
Views: 4459

Re: Gross: stockbug alert, future investment returns will be miniscule

I think we've all gotten spoiled by investment returns over the last 35 years. Even with the fall-downs in 2000 and 2008, if you held on and kept the faith you ended up getting rewarded. Investment returns over the last 100 years you mean. It's hard to envision a decade or multi-decade future of me...
by HomerJ
Tue May 05, 2015 9:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What happens if you violate an HOA?
Replies: 35
Views: 3189

Re: What happens if you violate an HOA?

What do you mean by "amenities"? It's not clear that this is beneficial at all. Neighborhood pool, playground, etc. We have a lake in our subdivision... HOA keeps it stocked with fish, and clean, and makes sure the fountains in the lake work (to keep from having stagnant water). We have a...
by HomerJ
Tue May 05, 2015 4:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What happens if you violate an HOA?
Replies: 35
Views: 3189

Re: What happens if you violate an HOA?

That HOA is currently in the process of putting a house up for auction for nonpayment of dues and fines. Huh? The HOA owns the house? I don't think I'd ever buy a house with an HOA. I don't want a governing group telling me what I can and can't do on my own property. No thanks. Do you live in a cit...
by HomerJ
Tue May 05, 2015 4:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What happens if you violate an HOA?
Replies: 35
Views: 3189

Re: What happens if you violate an HOA?

I don't think I'd ever buy a house with an HOA. I don't want a governing group telling me what I can and can't do on my own property. No thanks. There are two kinds of people in the country, those who like HOAs and those who don't. I also am in the latter. How many articles does one have to read ab...
by HomerJ
Mon May 04, 2015 11:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Will you buy self-driving car?
Replies: 158
Views: 4060

Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

It's not irrational optimism. Google's car that is out driving in the wild, already, almost certainly drives safer than you, and 98% of humans, right now, and it's only going to get better. It is indeed irrational optimism... Google's car is not "out driving in the wild". It's driven the ...
by HomerJ
Fri May 01, 2015 11:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New car every 5 years instead of 10?
Replies: 129
Views: 9231

Re: New car every 5 years instead of 10?

likegarden wrote:I do not consider new tires, battery, brakes, oil, etc. repairs, they are normal wear.


I know.. this is like asking if one should buy a new TV because the batteries in the remote are dead.
by HomerJ
Thu Apr 30, 2015 2:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New car every 5 years instead of 10?
Replies: 129
Views: 9231

Re: New car every 5 years instead of 10?

Let's play this hypothetical game. What if you bought a car that was 1-3 years old every 5 years? I think you would be making out a bit better. Worth some thought. This one works better... My wife does this... She buys a 1-year or 2-year old luxury vehicle every 5 years or so (finds one with less t...
by HomerJ
Thu Apr 30, 2015 1:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Private Schools - Tuition
Replies: 90
Views: 5260

Re: Private Schools - Tuition

Just a few ultra inspiring teachers in high school can make a massive difference, at least for me, even if I didn't acknowledge that sufficiently at the time. Yeah, this is the key... How do you determine where those teachers will be? Are they more likely to be at a private school? I went to a publ...
by HomerJ
Thu Apr 30, 2015 10:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Private Schools - Tuition
Replies: 90
Views: 5260

Re: Private Schools - Tuition

But if the outcome is no different, why bother to pay? I think part of the reason that the outcomes were not different is that parents of children in both high schools care. This. If the parents are involved, the kid (assuming innate ability) will do well in either public or private school... So wh...
by HomerJ
Thu Apr 30, 2015 9:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Private Schools - Tuition
Replies: 90
Views: 5260

Re: Private Schools - Tuition

There are no public schools that are rated well academically in the area I live. It will probably be a lot cheaper to move to a place with good public schools. And you'll probably get to enjoy living in a nicer house for the next 14 years. That said, I would like to challenge and invest in my child...
by HomerJ
Thu Apr 30, 2015 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing on Margin
Replies: 66
Views: 4001

Re: Investing on Margin

Rob Bertram wrote:The max drawdown of an all equity portfolio is around 56%


Where did you come up with this number?
by HomerJ
Tue Apr 28, 2015 5:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which SPIA ?
Replies: 20
Views: 1770

Re: Which SPIA ?

SPIA Annuities is NOT an investment. You are buying an INSURANCE product. I like to consider them an income stream.... Yeah, it technically is insurance against living for a long time, but a SPIA is very different from most insurance that you buy. They are very simple... Give an insurance company a...
by HomerJ
Tue Apr 28, 2015 2:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which SPIA ?
Replies: 20
Views: 1770

Re: Which SPIA ?

SPIA Annuities is NOT an investment. You are buying an INSURANCE product. I like to consider them an income stream.... Yeah, it technically is insurance against living for a long time, but a SPIA is very different from most insurance that you buy. They are very simple... Give an insurance company a...
by HomerJ
Tue Apr 28, 2015 2:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: engineers - please help with engineering school selection
Replies: 185
Views: 11786

Re: engineers - please help with engineering school selectio

Two words to solve the male\female ratio problem...

Road Trip
by HomerJ
Tue Apr 28, 2015 2:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Feel like I made a mistake with buying a house: appreciation
Replies: 43
Views: 4860

Re: Feel like I made a mistake with buying a house: apprecia

Is there an actionable change I should make in my investing portfolio or housing situation to rectify this difference? Yes, go back in time and buy in that other area... Oh wait, that's impossible to do... Oh I know! Sell your house, and buy in the NEXT area that is guaranteed to go up 120% in 3 ye...
by HomerJ
Tue Apr 28, 2015 8:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Prepping a house for sale: What are the priorities?
Replies: 33
Views: 2787

Re: Prepping a house for sale: What are the priorities?

Bake chocolate chip cookies before every open house and have a plate out...

The freshly baked cookie smell will help you sell your house. Weird, but true!
by HomerJ
Mon Apr 27, 2015 4:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: engineers - please help with engineering school selection
Replies: 185
Views: 11786

Re: engineers - please help with engineering school selectio

It's way more fun to go to Mines if you're a girl. My daughter had zero problem finding dates and a boyfriend but even she got tired of the "bro" culture towards the end. I wouldn't have been admitted, but I probably wouldn't have attended if I was because of the gender demographics. Mine...
by HomerJ
Mon Apr 27, 2015 1:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How far away from a freight railroad track should you live?
Replies: 51
Views: 3153

Re: How far away from a freight railroad track should you li

derosa wrote:In 6 - 9 months you won't notice it at all. A guest will say something like - wow that train is loud. And you will go oh yeah the train. You hear it but don't HEAR it.


This.
by HomerJ
Mon Apr 27, 2015 1:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How far away from a freight railroad track should you live?
Replies: 51
Views: 3153

Re: How far away from a freight railroad track should you li

I've been looking at some houses close to a freight railroad track where the train horn is definitely audible. How far do I have to go before the sound is not bothersome? When I was in high school we lived right next door to some tracks... The trains didn't blow their horns though, just the clacket...
by HomerJ
Fri Apr 24, 2015 9:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Marginal benefit of spending more on car
Replies: 83
Views: 6553

Re: Marginal benefit of spending more on car

Following this analysis, I start to think that I might as well spend $100k on a car because the money isn't doing me any good just sitting there and piling up. But then I ask myself "really how much better is the $100k car, surely I shouldn't spend money so frivolously"... hence this thre...
by HomerJ
Fri Apr 24, 2015 1:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Concentrated Bet ... not bad after all ?
Replies: 6
Views: 586

Re: Concentrated Bet ... not bad after all ?

John3754 wrote:Don't confuse outcome with strategy.


This,

You could bet it all on black at the roulette table and double your money in 1 minute....

Even if it works, that doesn't mean that was a good strategy.
by HomerJ
Fri Apr 24, 2015 11:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I apply for manager's job or continue as a techie?
Replies: 126
Views: 7490

Re: Should I apply for manager's job or continue as a techie

To the OP..... double edged sword, you get more control (sometimes) and more $$ but have more political stuff to deal with. Some people love that stuff. See, that's the problem, as a front-line manager, you don't get a lot of control, but you get all the responsibility for the decisions made above ...
by HomerJ
Fri Apr 24, 2015 11:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I apply for manager's job or continue as a techie?
Replies: 126
Views: 7490

Re: Should I apply for manager's job or continue as a techie

As for if you'll like it, plenty of folks have moved in and out of management. The transition seems to be way easier in the tech space and most sane folks get the concept that first time managers may realize they'd rather be doing the day-day. Since the opportunities there, it's probably at least e...
by HomerJ
Fri Apr 24, 2015 10:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I apply for manager's job or continue as a techie?
Replies: 126
Views: 7490

Re: Should I apply for manager's job or continue as a techie

I made the move to management 8 years ago and have doubled my salary and have excellent long term incentives. . Sure there's additional work and headaches but if you delegate, lead well and hire the right people it can be a very rewarding experience. Once you hit the management ranks there are many...
by HomerJ
Thu Apr 23, 2015 4:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Marginal benefit of spending more on car
Replies: 83
Views: 6553

Re: Marginal benefit of spending more on car

FYI, I have heated seats in my $15,000 2009 Honda Civic, and radio controls on the steering wheel, so you don't really need to upgrade to a Infiniti, etc. for stuff like that anymore. I saw a commercial that says rear-cameras are now standard in 2015 Honda Civics as well, so in 3 years when I buy a ...
by HomerJ
Thu Apr 23, 2015 10:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Marginal benefit of spending more on car
Replies: 83
Views: 6553

Re: Marginal benefit of spending more on car

That 15k would pay for 1500 hours with a trainer, 3000 hours of art classes, two family trips overseas, seven family trips in state at 300 a night hotels, 1500 albums, six of every us silver eagle ever made, 2000 ebooks, 1600 massages, ten pieces of fine jewelry, five paintings, seven new camera ki...
by HomerJ
Wed Apr 22, 2015 1:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's your average monthly expense???
Replies: 85
Views: 7912

Re: What's your average monthly expense???

So now if I take all lower bound, then it gets $3706, if I take upper one, then it becomes: $4056 :dollar . On an average it generally goes between $3700 - $4200 :oops:. Does it look normal? :confused So in which category I am expending more than usual? What's your usual expense in those categories...
by HomerJ
Wed Apr 22, 2015 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expert Tips on Building Wealth for Forty Somethings
Replies: 11
Views: 3046

Re: Expert Tips on Building Wealth for Forty Somethings

Number 6 was the secret to our success... Save 50% of every raise to avert 100% lifestyle creep. Lifestyle still gets better as the promotions and raises come in (so this method is not painful at all), but savings rate goes up even faster. When I married my wife, I made $30k a year, and she made $60...
by HomerJ
Wed Apr 22, 2015 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Two Tiered Annuity: What should we do with it?
Replies: 11
Views: 618

Re: Two Tiered Annuity: What should we do with it?

The balance is $65,000 on the top tier it's return is 6%. FYI, the "rate of return" is a meaningless number unless you also know the annuity rate when you turn it into an income stream... Most annuities will "guarantee" 6% or 7% returns on your money, but you're not actually get...
by HomerJ
Tue Apr 21, 2015 10:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car for teenager
Replies: 52
Views: 2836

Re: Car for teenager

Eventually the entire headliner started sagging so low that I ripped it all out, plus the insulation, so that the interior roof of the car was the metal shell. Heh, I had to do the same thing for my first car (197x Chevy Nova)... Paid $500 for it, and put a $400 stereo in it... ($900 in 1986 was so...
by HomerJ
Tue Apr 21, 2015 10:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car for teenager
Replies: 52
Views: 2836

Re: Car for teenager

Our first daughter, we bought her a Honda Accord with 180,000 miles on it... It actually lasted 5 years (1 year of high school, 4 years of college). Our second daughter got to inherit my old Honda Civic with only 100,000 miles on it... It's up to 150,000 miles, but she's still driving it today (she ...
by HomerJ
Tue Apr 21, 2015 10:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car for teenager
Replies: 52
Views: 2836

Re: Car for teen ager

I am wrestling with the same issue. Although I trust my children, I believe all people, especially young drivers, believe they are better drivers than they are. I also believe there are many bad drivers on the road today. It's hard to convey that it's better to be safe than right to a teenager. For...
by HomerJ
Mon Apr 20, 2015 1:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: One Spouse Outearning the Other?
Replies: 64
Views: 5332

Re: One Spouse Outearning the Other?

My wife has always out-earned me. A good 50% more, many years...

I highly recommend it. :)


(I really cannot understand anyone who would be upset by this)
by HomerJ
Sun Apr 19, 2015 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taking stock at midlife financially
Replies: 20
Views: 3454

Re: Taking stock at midlife financially

Hello all I have been a reader for some time on this forum, but this is my first post. I am in my mid forties and at a point where I have been working for 20+ years - started working right after college. I have a net worth of around 1.5 MM not including my home. I have around 50K of mortgage left o...
by HomerJ
Sat Apr 18, 2015 12:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: engineers - please help with engineering school selection
Replies: 185
Views: 11786

Re: engineers - please help with engineering school selectio

State Engineering school is incredibly painful, even for smart kids. It is not exaggerating to say it is 4 years of hell. Who do you want designing your bridges? The guy who coasted through a grade-inflated school where everyone graduates? Or the guy who graduated from a school that failed half the...
by HomerJ
Thu Apr 16, 2015 3:47 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Favorite Boglehead Avatar?
Replies: 87
Views: 4914

Re: Favorite Boglehead Avatar?

Homer has made me laugh for 25 years. I mean, truly laugh out loud.... That's got to be good for ones health. Marge (to Homer): So you want to go on tour with a traveling freak show. Homer: I don't think I have a choice, Marge. Marge: Of course you have a choice. Homer: How do you figure? Marge: You...
by HomerJ
Thu Apr 16, 2015 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does a retired person mitigate a Bond Bubble?
Replies: 46
Views: 5795

Re: How does a retired person mitigate a Bond Bubble?

Bonds self-correct... If rates go up, your bond fund may drop in value, but now you're getting more each month because interest rates are higher... Rates go up 1%, bond fund value drops 5%, but that same year you collect 3.2% in dividends... Next year, rates go up 1% again, you lose another 5% in va...
by HomerJ
Thu Apr 16, 2015 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anxiety about market fluctuations
Replies: 13
Views: 1138

Re: Anxiety about market fluctuations

we added going to the local playhouse 5 or 6 times a year, a bit nicer vacation then in the past, eating out a bit more, paying for some services instead of doing them, etc. Most things we can reverse if required. This is the trick I think... Don't go out and buy a bigger house or a better car... S...
by HomerJ
Wed Apr 15, 2015 5:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vehicle for tall people/Spouse wants 50k car help!
Replies: 77
Views: 5606

Re: Vehicle for tall people/Spouse wants 50k car help!

Not a chance in the world of my wife buying a minivan right now. They are very comfortable and awesome on long trips... I drove to Orlando from Kansas City in a minivan with two small children, and there was room to put a cooler and a bunch of books and toys between their two captain's chairs in th...
by HomerJ
Wed Apr 15, 2015 5:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vehicle for tall people/Spouse wants 50k car help!
Replies: 77
Views: 5606

Re: Vehicle for tall people/Spouse wants 50k car help!

One word... Minivan.

Okay, more words: Cheaper and more comfortable with 3 kids than a SUV. Make sure to get captain chairs in the second row, not a bench seat. So it's not cool. Cool is not worth an extra $20k.
by HomerJ
Wed Apr 15, 2015 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PIMCO Total Return - half cash?
Replies: 10
Views: 1397

Re: PIMCO Total Return - half cash?

Maynard F. Speer wrote:With a strong US dollar and weakening Euro, there are probably better returns to be had betting on currency movements than going long on bonds right now ..


Unless you guess wrong.

And PIMCO has shown that they can guess wrong sometimes just as well as anyone else with a PhD.
by HomerJ
Wed Apr 15, 2015 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it ok to NOT have significant taxable investments?
Replies: 48
Views: 4703

Re: Is it ok to NOT have significant taxable investments?

Well, if you want to retire early, it might be a good idea to have some money in taxable...

Or if you want to splurge pre-retirement... :)

My wife and I bought a lake condo with cash last year... couldn't have done that if all our money had been in a tax-deferred account.
by HomerJ
Wed Apr 15, 2015 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: You may need less than 80% in retirement
Replies: 98
Views: 9096

Re: WSJ: You may need less than 80% in retirement

My retirement spending equals 100% of my pre-retirement spending. Well, sure... But the question is about what percentage of your salary do you need to replace? Most of us agree that that is a very silly question, and the question should be "What will your expenses be in retirement?", and...
by HomerJ
Mon Apr 13, 2015 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: You may need less than 80% in retirement
Replies: 98
Views: 9096

Re: Finally some good news on retirement

Finally, a common sense article about the reality of post-retirement expenses and their relationship to pre-retirement expenses, and the foolishness of the so-called conventional wisdom that you should plan to replace 80% of your pre-retirement income. I am not retired, and I spend about 55% of my ...
by HomerJ
Mon Apr 13, 2015 1:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: On a budget and Friday night
Replies: 68
Views: 5125

Re: On a budget and Friday night

Sit on the deck with neighbors or family and drink a few beers...

Watch a movie on Netflix or rented from Red-box

Ping-Pong tournament with the wife and/or kids.

Maybe a card game while making dinner.

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