Search found 7683 matches

by HomerJ
Thu Aug 27, 2015 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I saving too much for retirement?
Replies: 45
Views: 4872

Re: Am I saving too much for retirement?

If your Social Security is at least $1200 a month, that would be $15,000 a year, and your pension will probably provide $30k a year, so it looks to me like you'll be just fine... His pension isn't inflation-adjusted. So in 20 years it'll only be providing $15,000 a year. So what? He's retiring at 6...
by HomerJ
Wed Aug 26, 2015 11:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm afraid I'll regret this.
Replies: 8
Views: 1374

Re: I'm afraid I'll regret this.

How old are you? If you're 50, and only have 5 more years to retirement, I would probably just stick with your current job... If you're 35, you probably don't want to spend 20 years doing a job you hate, so maybe you should go for it. Mid 30's I don't hate my job. It is so easy that I can do my job...
by HomerJ
Wed Aug 26, 2015 11:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Individual Stocks Does it Ever Make Sense?
Replies: 68
Views: 3008

Re: Individual Stocks Does it Ever Make Sense?

I think the only reason why I'm starting to deviate is because it hurts to see that the US total market is at a historical high-point (24-27 cape ratio), and quite honestly I'm scared of putting new money into it. CAPE has been above 20 since 1992 (except for a few months around the 2009 bottom). F...
by HomerJ
Wed Aug 26, 2015 11:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm afraid I'll regret this.
Replies: 8
Views: 1374

Re: I'm afraid I'll regret this.

How old are you?

If you're 50, and only have 5 more years to retirement, I would probably just stick with your current job...

If you're 35, you probably don't want to spend 20 years doing a job you hate, so maybe you should go for it.
by HomerJ
Wed Aug 26, 2015 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I saving too much for retirement?
Replies: 45
Views: 4872

Re: Am I saving too much for retirement?

I don’t understand exactly understand what the calculations are that are being used to figure how much I’ll need to save. For example: Vitaflo said I will need $875k, based on 4% rule. How did he (or she) come up with $875k. What is the formula? I would like to have a total dollar figure to shoot f...
by HomerJ
Wed Aug 26, 2015 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dipping into the emergency fund for rebalancing purposes during market downturns?
Replies: 24
Views: 1456

Re: Dipping into the emergency fund for rebalancing purposes during market downturns?

You're more likely to lose your job during a bear market crash, so I would never invest an emergency fund during a downturn.

What if you throw in half your emergency fund, then we continue to drop another 30%, AND you lose your job?
by HomerJ
Wed Aug 26, 2015 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1914
Views: 337143

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

technical anyalysis is people trying to create order out of chaos. The assumption there is that there are no patterns to be derived, which is assuming your own conclusion, generally not a convincing form of argument. Market participants aren't fully rational, that's beyond dispute IMO. Technical an...
by HomerJ
Wed Aug 26, 2015 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1914
Views: 337143

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

People talk about SMA200 in part because it worked in the recent past for the US market. Quite possibly by chance, and obviously people don't talk about things that haven't worked recently, but I don't think the rhetoric at the bottom is a good assessment of reality. But it didn't work in the recen...
by HomerJ
Wed Aug 26, 2015 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1914
Views: 337143

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

As pointed out by many, the worst time to be invested in stocks is when they are expensive and when they are downtrending. We are 2 for 2 right now. CAPE has come down but is still high by historical standards (24 vs. 16), and the S&P has fallen well below it's long term moving average. Not a g...
by HomerJ
Wed Aug 26, 2015 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1914
Views: 337143

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Negativity breeds from some on here when people post about things the board doesn't agree with. I don't think some Bogleheads are being very open minded to the fact that the theories that were once solid, may not always be applicable as economics do change. With what is going on in the world econom...
by HomerJ
Wed Aug 26, 2015 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: guess this ... if the Fed raises rates on 9/7 what happens to the Total Bond Market Fund?
Replies: 9
Views: 572

Re: guess this ... if the Fed raises rates on 9/7 what happens to the Total Bond Market Fund?

Between 2004 and 2006, the Fed raised interest rates 17 times, increasing them from 1% to 5.25% $10,000 invested in the Total Bond Market Index fund grew to $11,159 by the end of 2006. There was a "crash" where the value of the TBM fell from about $10,400 to $9,856 early on during this per...
by HomerJ
Wed Aug 26, 2015 1:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1914
Views: 337143

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I don't understand why the board turns salty when people make educated decisions that happens to coincide with obvious red flag warning signs that are staring us right in our faces. The economy / financial markets could not sustain at those bullish levels, especially with our debt levels which are ...
by HomerJ
Tue Aug 25, 2015 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I saving too much for retirement?
Replies: 45
Views: 4872

Re: Am I saving too much for retirement?

sdsailing wrote:an unstable pension fund


That is the dangerous part, yes, but if he indeed gets 50% pension, Social Security will cover the rest, and he should be golden.
by HomerJ
Tue Aug 25, 2015 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I saving too much for retirement?
Replies: 45
Views: 4872

Re: Am I saving too much for retirement?

I make $55,000. I save at total of $13,000 per year. Is that $55k after taxes? Do you live on $42k a year? Let's just say you live on $40k a year. How much will your Social Security checks be? Go to http://www.ssa.gov and find out. I'm guessing you're actually doing quite well. Many people here saw...
by HomerJ
Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Rule of 20" equity valuation methodology
Replies: 16
Views: 2179

Re: "The Rule of 20" equity valuation methodology

The Rule of 20 P/E historically fluctuates between 15 and 25. In general, readings above 20 reflect periods of greed, and below 20 fair value or fear. This is recency basis... Anyone making this post before 1990 would have said readings above 16-17 is greed, and below 16-17 fair value or fear. So t...
by HomerJ
Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Rule of 20" equity valuation methodology
Replies: 16
Views: 2179

Re: "The Rule of 20" equity valuation methodology

Anyone who followed this rule in the 90s would have been lowering their stock allocation in 1992... when the DOW was around 3200, and not increased their stock allocation until 2009. 17 years is a long time to stick with a strategy that underperforms. Of course, then following this rule, in 2010-201...
by HomerJ
Tue Aug 25, 2015 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 2008 all over again...
Replies: 25
Views: 3731

Re: 2008 all over again...

As reasonable analysts (e.g. Bill McBride) So how exactly, do you determine which analysts are reasonable? Actually, one can put forth very good reasons for a prediction and still be wrong. So I guess you need to determine which analysts are reasonable AND correct. Beforehand. "It's tough to m...
by HomerJ
Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's selling now?
Replies: 63
Views: 6422

Re: Who's selling now?

Does luck last decades? Yes possibly... You yourself have spent 95% of your trading lifetime in a fast rising market. You may not do as well in a bear market or a long sideways market. Although your father has obviously experienced a few downturns. That is the benefit of being able to watch things ...
by HomerJ
Tue Aug 25, 2015 11:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone with experience taking a voluntary (pre-retirement) break from employment?
Replies: 28
Views: 3208

Re: Anyone with experience taking a voluntary (pre-retirement) break from employment?

2. We had quite a bit of resources available in non-retirement investments, so we had flexibility on what we could draw from (I had been the major earner in the family). On the other hand, we are in HCOL area and had a substantial mortgage (and property tax bill), so that made for a significant cas...
by HomerJ
Mon Aug 24, 2015 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1914
Views: 337143

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

As I have now said many times in many threads over the past months, people learned the wrong thing from 2008. Look at what you wrote. "And then the market continued upwards." This is what people have learned to expect. That every drop will be followed with a bounce soon after. I agree tha...
by HomerJ
Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1914
Views: 337143

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

This thread is a very ironic place to state that the correction we're experiencing was easy to see. You can go back through the thread and see dozens and dozens of days where the stock market dropped, this thread got resurrected by worried people thinking "Oh, no! <insert financial crisis here>...
by HomerJ
Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1914
Views: 337143

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

This year made things clear and easy. We broke to new all time highs. So, we rebounded from absurd lows and now broke new records. And why? Look around. Do things look rosy in the economic and worldly environment? The U.S. stock market has been breaking all time highs since 2013. 2013 and 2014 had ...
by HomerJ
Mon Aug 24, 2015 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to do w/450K in cash?
Replies: 32
Views: 3839

Re: What to do w/450K in cash?

Put some of the cash to work today. 72K to shore up tech, healthcare, and financial sectors. Caught AAPL @ 96.50 A wild ride today. After that intial freefall in the morning, had to wait it out until afternoon to move into the drop again. Whew. Heh, it's the excitement that you bought. You don't ne...
by HomerJ
Mon Aug 24, 2015 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to do w/450K in cash?
Replies: 32
Views: 3839

Re: What to do w/450K in cash?

$450K This is about 9% of my fidelity portfolio value. dividends of 130K year 120K equals 12-18 months of expenses. It really doesn't matter what you do... You don't need this money to do anything. I'd probably just leave it in cash, or spend it on some great vacations, or give it my kids or charit...
by HomerJ
Mon Aug 24, 2015 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 2008 all over again...
Replies: 25
Views: 3731

Re: 2008 all over again...

poker27 wrote:So if we were 100% sure that stocks were going to crash for 18 month would we move our $ to another asset class? I think the answer is pretty obvious :confused


Yeah, pretty silly question.

"Hey, if you knew the next spin of the wheel was coming up black, what would you do?"
by HomerJ
Mon Aug 24, 2015 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 2008 all over again...
Replies: 25
Views: 3731

Re: 2008 all over again...

It will bottom out in a "about" year and half? Or recover in "about" a year and a half? <-- You said this one, but it was actually the other, so if you DID go back in time and show your OP to your former self, your former self would probably sell everything in March 2009, after s...
by HomerJ
Mon Aug 24, 2015 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I crazy? Quitting my job.
Replies: 95
Views: 12959

Re: Am I crazy? Quitting my job.

greg24 wrote:I'm surprised how many here are telling you to allow money to control your life.


Although, counter-point is, with 3 more years, money will never control his life again.
by HomerJ
Mon Aug 24, 2015 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's selling now?
Replies: 63
Views: 6422

Re: Who's selling now?

UADM wrote:I sold everything a month ago. 100% cash. Bought 10% friday. Traded a bit today and have maybe a 15-20% position that I'll keep by the end.


Feel free to keep us updated... Or you could wait until the market goes up 20% and then tell us how you went 100% into the market a month before that. :)
by HomerJ
Mon Aug 24, 2015 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long will you"Stay the Course"?
Replies: 99
Views: 7690

Re: How long will you"Stay the Course"?

Homer J wrote: This level of precision is not possible when discussing the stock market. Precision is not necessary, but being oblivious to high valuations is dangerous to one's financial health. So far, this is false. Risk-averse Investors should make an effort to learn about historical valuation ...
by HomerJ
Mon Aug 24, 2015 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1914
Views: 337143

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Anybody who didn't know this stock market downdraft was coming just hasn't been paying attention. You've been posting doom and gloom posts for the past 3 years... But I'm glad you're happy that you're right for once. Still doesn't make you an expert predictor, and it still doesn't make it easy to p...
by HomerJ
Mon Aug 24, 2015 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long will you"Stay the Course"?
Replies: 99
Views: 7690

Re: How long will you"Stay the Course"?

Homer J wrote: So that's why I'm 50/50... So even if the market goes down 50%, my portfolio will "only" drop 25%, which is easier for me to withstand, financially and emotionally. Only 25% ? That's a lot more than many people can afford to withstand. That is highly personalized, but can b...
by HomerJ
Mon Aug 24, 2015 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do now with market crash?
Replies: 56
Views: 7049

Re: What to do now with market crash?

Put 60% in Vanguard Total Stock and 40% in Vanguard Total Bond. If they grow to a point where they are 15% or more out of balance from that ratio then sell some of the high one and buy the cheaper one until you return to a 60/40 asset allocation. Dollar cost average every month. Shelter this in you...
by HomerJ
Sun Aug 23, 2015 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long will you"Stay the Course"?
Replies: 99
Views: 7690

Re: How long will you"Stay the Course"?

Nisiprius asked... "I keep reading indirect, throwaway references to that (panic thresholds) , but, please, what's the source? I really want to know if it's established by research or just some conventional-wisdom rule of thumb. " 1. The 20% loss threshold figure stuck with me from this 2...
by HomerJ
Sun Aug 23, 2015 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Loss in portfolio makes me spend more, do you ?
Replies: 30
Views: 2172

Re: Loss in portfolio makes me spend more, do you ?

Yep, makes me want to go out and buy a Tesla. :sharebeer :sharebeer :sharebeer I placed a deposit on the Tesla earlier (ie, I was planning on spending that money). All I said was that I was pleased to get your stamp of approval. Full disclosure: I must have miscalculated, because my net loss yester...
by HomerJ
Sun Aug 23, 2015 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller PE10 nearing nosebleed territory?
Replies: 322
Views: 35713

Re: Shiller PE10 nearing nosebleed territory?

Maynard F. Speer wrote:But anyway it's an imperfect measure, so any arbitrary cut-off from 16 to 26 would probably work just fine


Wrong.
by HomerJ
Sun Aug 23, 2015 2:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long will you"Stay the Course"?
Replies: 99
Views: 7690

Re: How long will you"Stay the Course"?

What combination of duration and drop in the market might break your resolve? 20%/two months?, 20%/two years, 40%/four months?,40%/four years?, or whatever. It is possible since there is a surplus of capacity/labor and a scarcity of jobs. I set my AA expecting a crash at any time. Therefore, a cras...
by HomerJ
Fri Aug 21, 2015 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1914
Views: 337143

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

So I have a lazy 3 fund.... 80/20. Would I be advised to sell my 20% bonds and buy stocks at this level? No. But you may want to rebalance if you are out of your rebalancing bands. I am 26. I thought 20% bonds was a bit heavy. This just gives me a buying opportunity to move it to even heavier stock...
by HomerJ
Fri Aug 21, 2015 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The future of VWO
Replies: 14
Views: 1606

Re: The future of VWO

He says 5-20% of your equity should be invested directly in China. I'm at about 5-10% based on his advice. How do you invest directly in China? I thought that was limited to Chinese natives. TDF, closed-end fund selling at a wide discount. Ah, so you're not actually directly invested in China... Th...
by HomerJ
Fri Aug 21, 2015 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The future of VWO
Replies: 14
Views: 1606

Re: The future of VWO

ajacobs6 wrote:He says 5-20% of your equity should be invested directly in China. I'm at about 5-10% based on his advice.


How do you invest directly in China? I thought that was limited to Chinese natives.
by HomerJ
Fri Aug 21, 2015 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?
Replies: 76
Views: 10242

Re: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?

I don't consider owning the entire domestic market and its thousands of stocks to be "one basket". Perhaps many baskets, but in the same barn? Depends on what you are looking at. That one basic has all the same currency and soveign risk (guess what those apply to the US as much as they do...
by HomerJ
Thu Aug 20, 2015 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: anyone treating this as an RBD (really bad day)
Replies: 95
Views: 9666

Re: anyone treating this as an RBD (really bad day)

I had been waiting to get back in the market for my taxable account. I jumped the gun prematurely yesterday putting in 20K when the sale only started today :annoyed It's been this price multiple times this year. Why is today special enough for you to "get back in"? Why didn't you get in b...
by HomerJ
Thu Aug 20, 2015 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 100% Rm-Rf (or 100% SMB, 100% HML, 100% MOM) An Efficient Portfolio?
Replies: 24
Views: 1343

Re: Is 100% Rm-Rf (or 100% SMB, 100% HML, 100% MOM) An Efficient Portfolio?

scottj19707 wrote:On the "What happens when they all contradict each other?" ... I would say 1) knowledge, 2) understanding, and 3) judgement.


Heh, you have more free time than me to learn enough so that you can determine which PhD is right and which PhD is wrong.
by HomerJ
Thu Aug 20, 2015 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Greenspan: we've got a bond bubble, Houston
Replies: 71
Views: 5903

Re: Greenspan: we've got a bond bubble, Houston

The main point is that the FFR is not the whole story when it comes to bond prices/yields. You are correct that even though the Fed raised the fed fund rate drastically from 2004 to 2006, actual bond yields did not change nearly as much. But what are people worried about? They are worried that the ...
by HomerJ
Wed Aug 19, 2015 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Greenspan: we've got a bond bubble, Houston
Replies: 71
Views: 5903

Re: Greenspan: we've got a bond bubble, Houston

There's a huge difference between going from 0% to 1% and 4.25-5.25% Where the risk free rate is absolutely affects the "stability" of the principal. 0-1% is an infinite increase. 4.25-5.25 is a 25% increase in the rate. My point is simply about the risk/reward. The potential principal lo...
by HomerJ
Wed Aug 19, 2015 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Greenspan: we've got a bond bubble, Houston
Replies: 71
Views: 5903

Re: Greenspan: we've got a bond bubble, Houston

Between 2004 and 2006, the Fed raised interest rates 17 times, increasing them from 1% to 5.25% Would you like to see what damage this did to $10,000 invested in the Total Bond Market Index fund during this time? It grew to $11,159 by the end of 2006. There was a "crash" to $9,856 early on...
by HomerJ
Wed Aug 19, 2015 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 100% Rm-Rf (or 100% SMB, 100% HML, 100% MOM) An Efficient Portfolio?
Replies: 24
Views: 1343

Re: Is 100% Rm-Rf (or 100% SMB, 100% HML, 100% MOM) An Efficient Portfolio?

On the other hand, I can't in good conscious just ignore new information, evidence, research, etc., like Fama-French, John Cochrane, Campbell Harvey, etc. What happens when they all contradict each other? Economics is not really a hard science with repeatable controlled experiments. Since you like ...
by HomerJ
Wed Aug 19, 2015 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Greenspan: we've got a bond bubble, Houston
Replies: 71
Views: 5903

Re: Greenspan: we've got a bond bubble, Houston

It's good to finally meet someone with a working crystal ball. You seem to think Greenspan has a working crystal ball... You've gotten completely out of bonds listening to people who you think are correctly predicting the future... The truth is, bonds do not "crash" like stocks do... They...
by HomerJ
Wed Aug 19, 2015 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 100% Rm-Rf (or 100% SMB, 100% HML, 100% MOM) An Efficient Portfolio?
Replies: 24
Views: 1343

Re: Is 100% Rm-Rf (or 100% SMB, 100% HML, 100% MOM) An Efficient Portfolio?

You should re-read your own signature. Life is short ... less is more ... simplicity > complexity ... VTI, VXUS, BND ... buy, hold, and rebalance. It's admirable that you want to learn more, don't get me wrong. But keep in mind that economics isn't really a "hard" science. Not their fault....
by HomerJ
Wed Aug 19, 2015 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Defining "stay the course"
Replies: 23
Views: 1992

Re: Defining "stay the course"

Well if those papers cause them to get closer and closer to a simple 3-fund portfolio, why not. When I started investing I had about 10 or 15 different funds and I was trying to rebalance them monthly. Since then I've only ever taken away a fund, never added one. We all don't have the luxury of sta...
by HomerJ
Wed Aug 19, 2015 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Defining "stay the course"
Replies: 23
Views: 1992

Re: Defining "stay the course"

If you chose a bad allocation, and find new information on how to improve it, isn't that okay? I think when Jack Bogle means stay the course he means to ignore the financial media and ignore stock market volatility. He doesn't mean to ignore sound theoretical arguments for changing one's portfolio....

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