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Re: When should someone "not stay the course"?

In my opinion, if you can't stay the course with that, then you should not be investing in stocks . I have to agree with this... I truly hope all the feedback on these threads helps InvestorNewb stay the course during the next crash... Because there WILL be one... And his first instinct is going to...
by HomerJ
Wed Oct 01, 2014 11:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When should someone "not stay the course"?
Replies: 29
Views: 1676

Re: When should someone "not stay the course"?

The DOW was at 1000 in 1966... it was STILL around 1000 in 1982... It's not always giant crashes, and huge booms... Sometimes, the market trades sideways for long periods of time... that's 16 years there where the market didn't return much... But it was then followed by 18 years where the DOW went t...
by HomerJ
Wed Oct 01, 2014 11:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When should someone "not stay the course"?
Replies: 29
Views: 1676

Re: POLL: Would you rather work half as long or half as ofte

When I'm working, I'm much more likely to go to the gym, cook myself dinner, make plans with friends, and generally live a fuller and more enriched life than when I have nothing I have to be doing all day long. Very interesting... I'm exactly the opposite.. I work out MORE when I'm on vacation, bec...
by HomerJ
Mon Sep 29, 2014 6:10 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: POLL: Would you rather work half as long or half as often?
Replies: 68
Views: 3875

Re: How can I stop feeling depressed about my finances?

I didn't really start my career until I was 29...

You're doing a lot better than I was at 26...
by HomerJ
Mon Sep 29, 2014 2:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How can I stop feeling depressed about my finances?
Replies: 93
Views: 6006

Re: Need advice on investment with loaned money

trueblueky wrote:What is the interest rate on the loan?


Until we know this, it's impossible to give you any advice.
by HomerJ
Mon Sep 29, 2014 11:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need advice on investment with loaned money
Replies: 11
Views: 747

Re: Alternative things to do in Orlando

http://www.wetnwildorlando.com/

Wet and Wild Waterpark was really fun.
by HomerJ
Sun Sep 28, 2014 12:35 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Alternative things to do in Orlando
Replies: 6
Views: 530

Re: Why do people buy annuities? Because Its All About Risk

The other insurance feature of annuities for us, is the Protective Put, in GWLB deferred Variable Annuity. I get to limit the downside risk by paying the insurance company a known premium yet keep my ability for unlimited upside gain. I'm sorry to contradict you, but you do NOT have "unlimited...
by HomerJ
Sat Sep 27, 2014 11:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people buy annuities?
Replies: 50
Views: 3822

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Lucky Planet Very interesting book that explores the question, "Are Earth type planets common in the universe or extremely rare"? His main point is that our Earth-Moon combo may be very rare in the universe.. I mean the moon is very big, we're almost a double-planet system... (Funny enoug...
by HomerJ
Sat Sep 27, 2014 9:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 47
Views: 2359

Re: "Shellshock" vulnerability for Linux based systems

mwm158 wrote:You could always follow what I've learned at work. Never plug anything important into the internet. Air gaps protect against all kinds of vulnerabilities.


Where do you work? A horse-buggy factory? :)
by HomerJ
Sat Sep 27, 2014 9:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "Shellshock" vulnerability for Linux based systems
Replies: 61
Views: 2553

Re: EmergDoc has Surpassed 10,000 posts!

EmergDoc... I've directed my several doctor friends, and my nurse daughter (who won't listen to me) to your site...

You've helped a lot of people. Be proud and thank you.
by HomerJ
Sat Sep 27, 2014 9:45 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: EmergDoc has Surpassed 10,000 posts!
Replies: 32
Views: 2847

Re: EmergDoc has Surpassed 10,000 posts!

Thanks everybody! I'm currently 18th on the list of all time posters. At one point I was 7th or 8th, but began posting here a little less in order to start The White Coat Investor. I hope I've given back at least as much as I've gotten from this fine group of people. Could someone direct me to wher...
by HomerJ
Sat Sep 27, 2014 9:44 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: EmergDoc has Surpassed 10,000 posts!
Replies: 32
Views: 2847

Re: Why do people buy annuities?

So I'll admit, I fly first class when I know I can get a better deal in coach. first class makes me happy, comfortable and less miserable. I'd love to fly first-class, but someone on this site once said "If someone offered you $3000 cash to sit in an uncomfortable chair and read a book for 8 h...
by HomerJ
Sat Sep 27, 2014 9:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people buy annuities?
Replies: 50
Views: 3822

Re: Why do people buy annuities?

randomguy wrote:Do a post some time asking if getting a financial advisor at 1% is a good deal because it makes you happy not to have to worry about your portfolio, and you will not get very many supportive posts:)


Paying an advisor doesn't keep you from worrying about your money.
by HomerJ
Fri Sep 26, 2014 11:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people buy annuities?
Replies: 50
Views: 3822

Re: Why do people buy annuities?

Interesting that we can have threads claiming that 2.5% is the highest one can withdraw and "be safe", and at the same time have a thread asking "Why do people buy annuities?" Well, if you take half your money and buy a SPIA that pays out 6% for life, then you get the equivalent ...
by HomerJ
Fri Sep 26, 2014 11:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people buy annuities?
Replies: 50
Views: 3822

Re: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal R

A simpler way to estimate stock returns is the earnings yield e/p (the inverse of p/e). According to a Vanguard paper, this has been the most reliable estimator (including compared to history), accounting for about 40% of the time variation in net-of-inflation returns. https://personal.vanguard.com...
by HomerJ
Fri Sep 26, 2014 8:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal Rate)
Replies: 77
Views: 3754

Re: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal R

For bonds, it's easy. Just look at their current yields. Current yields explain 90%-95% of future returns. For more background, see this WSJ article, How to Predict the Next Decade's Bond Returns . For the next ten years... Bond returns and interest rates could be much higher 15,20 years down the r...
by HomerJ
Fri Sep 26, 2014 8:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal Rate)
Replies: 77
Views: 3754

Re: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal R

4% is my number. I should note that my 4% includes discretionary spending, so if times are bad, I can drop from 6 trips a year (2 big, 4 little) to 3 trips a year (3 little)... Your residual expenses are not 4%. You *choose* to withdraw 4%. That would be one take on flexibility. When all is said: •...
by HomerJ
Fri Sep 26, 2014 5:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal Rate)
Replies: 77
Views: 3754

Re: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal R

On the low end. Based on our travel plans my pick is "2.00-2.49%" and again, this will be for travel purposes only because the rest is covered with 2 pensions and 2 social security checks, thanks heavens [and a lot of hard work] we are going to do fine. That almost doesn't really count. Y...
by HomerJ
Fri Sep 26, 2014 5:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal Rate)
Replies: 77
Views: 3754

Re: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal R

MP1233 wrote:I suspect that this is a "problem" for many Bogleheads.


Heh, I wish... :)
by HomerJ
Fri Sep 26, 2014 4:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal Rate)
Replies: 77
Views: 3754

Re: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal R

I'm betting 2.5% is pretty bombproof. I'd rather save more than risk more. This probably means you'll work 5-10 YEARS longer than you have to... That's a lot of life to give up to "be sure". 4% is my number. I should note that my 4% includes discretionary spending, so if times are bad, I ...
by HomerJ
Fri Sep 26, 2014 3:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal Rate)
Replies: 77
Views: 3754

Re: Stubbornly Non-Boglehead Husband. What To Do?

believes he can beat the market, and his objective is to do just that. I don't think you'll ever convince him that he can't beat the market (or even that the odds are against him, no matter how smart and talented he is), but I repeat that maybe you can slowly convince him, that he's so successful t...
by HomerJ
Fri Sep 26, 2014 10:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stubbornly Non-Boglehead Husband. What To Do?
Replies: 122
Views: 7519

Re: Stubbornly Non-Boglehead Husband. What To Do?

This board is sort of about money, but more fundamentally about our lives and values, and how our relationship with money intersects with these lives and values. One of the ideas that is espoused (correctly in my view) is that $$$ in itself is just sort of a means to an end - the end being leading ...
by HomerJ
Fri Sep 26, 2014 10:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stubbornly Non-Boglehead Husband. What To Do?
Replies: 122
Views: 7519

Re: How to achieve a balance between "saving" and "living"?!

I'm not nearly as smart as most people here but my philosophy is if you can' pay cash for a toy such as a motorcycle, you save until you can or you buy something cheaper. I agree with this too... If you can't pay cash for a toy, then you can't afford that toy. Now, I'm okay with the OP lowering his...
by HomerJ
Thu Sep 25, 2014 4:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to achieve a balance between "saving" and "living"?!
Replies: 64
Views: 6539

Re: Stubbornly Non-Boglehead Husband. What To Do?

The real issue with losing $500k in a month is that nothing really crazy has happened lately... How much is he betting to lose that much? What happens if the market (or whatever stock he's betting on), or gold really crashes next month? I mean he lost $500k, and gold hasn't moved that much in any si...
by HomerJ
Thu Sep 25, 2014 2:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stubbornly Non-Boglehead Husband. What To Do?
Replies: 122
Views: 7519

Re: POLL: Would you rather work half as long or half as ofte

IlliniDave wrote:I voted full time, half length. Cuts lifetime commuting in half, and commuting steals a big chunk of my life.


This is a good point... One of the advantages I see with retirement is being able to live wherever I want... I'd lose that if I worked half-time my whole life (or I'd need two houses) :)
by HomerJ
Thu Sep 25, 2014 2:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: POLL: Would you rather work half as long or half as often?
Replies: 68
Views: 3875

Re: POLL: Would you rather work half as long or half as ofte

If I could work 6 months on and 6 months off (or even just 3 days a week all year round), I would do that until I was 85.

But since such a job is very rare and impossible to guarantee I can keep it, I have to work full time until 55, and retire early instead...
by HomerJ
Thu Sep 25, 2014 2:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: POLL: Would you rather work half as long or half as often?
Replies: 68
Views: 3875

Re: AliBaba

never mind
by HomerJ
Thu Sep 25, 2014 11:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AliBaba
Replies: 128
Views: 8156

Re: AliBaba

Care to reveal how you got an allocation? I tried with 3 different brokers that I family connections with and money with and got nothing. I got in at 76.45, that's the best I could do... 1000 shares minimum and that's what I went for... How did you manage that? You a (very) big fish at some brokera...
by HomerJ
Thu Sep 25, 2014 11:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AliBaba
Replies: 128
Views: 8156

Re: Stubbornly Non-Boglehead Husband. What To Do?

OP again! I haven't read all the responses, but it appears that your husband's aggressive risk tolerance and speculative tendencies have served him well in his career, if not in his personal investments. So in other words, you're justifiably annoyed about how he's managing the money, but you wouldn...
by HomerJ
Wed Sep 24, 2014 5:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stubbornly Non-Boglehead Husband. What To Do?
Replies: 122
Views: 7519

Re: Stubbornly Non-Boglehead Husband. What To Do?

Option 1: Be ultra conservative with your portion. 100% short term treasuries or CD's. Option 2: Find out what positions he has taken in his portfolio, and take the opposite end of the trade (Go short the stocks he is long in, and vice versa). You will lose overall on the transaction costs, but you...
by HomerJ
Wed Sep 24, 2014 5:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stubbornly Non-Boglehead Husband. What To Do?
Replies: 122
Views: 7519

Re: How to achieve a balance between "saving" and "living"?!

If maxing out your 401k is a 25% savings rate AND you're getting a match AND you're maxing a Roth IRA at only 24 years of age, then I think it's safe to say you are saving enough and can relax the reigns a bit and enjoy life some more. It's all about priorities. Retirement vs cash reserves vs trave...
by HomerJ
Wed Sep 24, 2014 5:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to achieve a balance between "saving" and "living"?!
Replies: 64
Views: 6539

Re: How to achieve a balance between "saving" and "living"?!

That joy I used to get in my youth from these frivolous pursuits is completely gone now. I can only think of things now in terms of opportunity cost, or hours of labor to acquire, etc. That's interesting... I get far more joy nowadays from buying things because I know I can afford them... There's n...
by HomerJ
Wed Sep 24, 2014 4:35 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to achieve a balance between "saving" and "living"?!
Replies: 64
Views: 6539

Re: Can Active Fund Strategy Beat Vanilla Index Fund?

The analysis that drew me to TRBCX was its: 1. long-tenured manager 2. Lower ER than peers 3. Lower turnover rate than peers 4. Superior performance x 20 years Wow, that's a lot of analysis... How much time you spend analyzing this fund and the manager? Important question... What does superior perf...
by HomerJ
Wed Sep 24, 2014 3:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Active Fund Strategy Beat Vanilla Index Fund?
Replies: 25
Views: 1494

Re: Stubbornly Non-Boglehead Husband. What To Do?

Bogleheads should stop implying that Bogleheads don't beat the market. Bogleheads beat the market after fees and costs. Over a lifetime of compounding, they beat the market by a considerable percentage margin. What? No we don't... We get the market returns. We beat the average investor, but we don'...
by HomerJ
Wed Sep 24, 2014 2:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stubbornly Non-Boglehead Husband. What To Do?
Replies: 122
Views: 7519

Re: Stubbornly Non-Boglehead Husband. What To Do?

One has to ask the question, why is beating the market so important to him? At your income level it can't relate to any rational needs either in the near term or in the long term. This is a good point... You probably can't convince him that he CAN'T beat the market... But maybe you can convince him...
by HomerJ
Wed Sep 24, 2014 2:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stubbornly Non-Boglehead Husband. What To Do?
Replies: 122
Views: 7519

Re: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too

Browser, pretty much what you said was that you don't want to pay the premiums for portfolio insurance. The cost of the insurance (somewhat reduced performance) wasn't worth the benefit of reduced volatility. This is the judgment I have made for myself and I own neither gold or commodities. If I wa...
by HomerJ
Wed Sep 24, 2014 2:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too
Replies: 56
Views: 4016

Re: What did you always wish for but never got?

Monty Python's poor script... Michael Palin: Ahh.. Very passable, this, very passable. Graham Chapman: Nothing like a good glass of Chateau de Chassilier wine, ay Gessiah? Terry Gilliam: You're right there Obediah. Eric Idle: Who'd a thought thirty years ago we'd all be sittin' here drinking Chateau...
by HomerJ
Wed Sep 24, 2014 10:50 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What did you always wish for but never got?
Replies: 87
Views: 5059

Re: What did you always wish for but never got?

X-ray glasses that I saw in the ads in the back of my comic books.
by HomerJ
Tue Sep 23, 2014 10:07 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What did you always wish for but never got?
Replies: 87
Views: 5059

Re: Could one theoretically be 100% stocks your whole life?

Dandy makes a good point, my investing has generally been in good times. The decades of the '80s and '90s were very favorable times to be an equity investor. The '00 were essentially a flat decade. The '10 so far are back to the '80s. We shall see.....Gordon Incidentally, I retired in early 2006, t...
by HomerJ
Tue Sep 23, 2014 2:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could one theoretically be 100% stocks your whole life?
Replies: 43
Views: 2744

Re: The only risk of leverage is selling at the bottom

Techcrium, the answer to your question is clearly no, you can lose money on a leveraged investment even if you aren't forced to sell. There is no guarantee equities will return more than your borrowing costs. Just look at the Nikkei over the past couple decades. The MYR thread is quite long and has...
by HomerJ
Tue Sep 23, 2014 11:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The only risk of leverage is selling at the bottom
Replies: 46
Views: 1521

Re: The only risk of leverage is selling at the bottom

There is the entire point of this thread. Leverage is absolutely fine provided you are responsible and aware of the consequences...which is selling at the bottom either forced or voluntarily. If you had avoid that then you are fine. Okay, so how do you guarantee that you don't have to sell at the b...
by HomerJ
Tue Sep 23, 2014 10:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The only risk of leverage is selling at the bottom
Replies: 46
Views: 1521

Re: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too

but as a crisis 'if the s*** hits the fan' portfolio insurance. Honestly, will gold provide that? If the "crisis" is inflation, then it might. If the "crisis" is complete economic meltdown, then might fuel, a remote property, etc. etc. be more valuable. I mean who is going to be...
by HomerJ
Tue Sep 23, 2014 10:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too
Replies: 56
Views: 4016

Re: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too

During the last bear market, I was very happy owning 5% in gold and silver... It doubled twice, and each time I rebalanced into stocks.

Right now, I'm still at 3.4% gold and silver... I haven't bought any more (I was waiting until it dropped to 2.5%), but maybe I should... :)
by HomerJ
Tue Sep 23, 2014 10:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too
Replies: 56
Views: 4016

Re: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too

In 1973 and 1974 a 50/50 portfolio lost 7% and 11% respectively, and in 2008 it lost 12%. These are tolerable losses to me during the most severe stock drawdown periods in the last 42 years. You amigos may arrive at a different conclusion and drop by your broker to purchase the gold shares I just s...
by HomerJ
Mon Sep 22, 2014 6:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too
Replies: 56
Views: 4016

Re: AliBaba

Time to sober up: Only the upper tier of the S&P500 has lifted the entire index. Be smart. Get rid of the dead weight, and invest (small amount) in the winners. Just invest in the winners! Get rid of the losers! It's so simple... You should write a book..... "Take all your savings and buy ...
by HomerJ
Mon Sep 22, 2014 5:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AliBaba
Replies: 128
Views: 8156

Re: AliBaba

ivyhedge wrote:Folks questioned why I bought into GOOG, FB, XMSR, PTR, and MBLY early. I didn't. This is part of our IPS.


[OT comments removed by admin LadyGeek]
by HomerJ
Mon Sep 22, 2014 4:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AliBaba
Replies: 128
Views: 8156

Re: AliBaba

1000 shares at $75, it goes to 90 or more I sell, can't get it on 2ndary market for that price, I don't buy, I get it and goes down, hold it for long term, this is my gambling money.... Is risking $75,000 worth it to make $15k? I'd rather buy more shares of VTI. The problem with VTI is that it is s...
by HomerJ
Mon Sep 22, 2014 4:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AliBaba
Replies: 128
Views: 8156

Re: How to achieve a balance between "saving" and "living"?!

Save half your raises, and spend the other half. It won't take that long for you to be saving a ton of money and living a great lifestyle. If you're REALLY lucky, you'll someday get to a point where you have pretty much everything you want, and then you can save 100% of your raises. My wife and I we...
by HomerJ
Fri Sep 19, 2014 10:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to achieve a balance between "saving" and "living"?!
Replies: 64
Views: 6539

Re: Immediate payable annuity is a bad investment?

I believe that a properly chosen and balanced portfolio of index funds and bond funds taking into account a realistic evaluation of your risk profile is always a better choice economically but perhaps not as appealing psychologically. Better choice economically for your children, but probably not f...
by HomerJ
Fri Sep 19, 2014 2:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Immediate payable annuity is a bad investment?
Replies: 45
Views: 2638

Re: Immediate payable annuity is a bad investment?

Annuities are very Bogle. They get you the low risk market rate of return on an actuarial risk of longevity. They are Bogleheadish if the fees are low enough. The fees from most companies are obscene. But I suppose that's not so different from mutual funds. We're talking about SPIAs... the fees on ...
by HomerJ
Thu Sep 18, 2014 5:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Immediate payable annuity is a bad investment?
Replies: 45
Views: 2638
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