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Question about the gordon equation

The Gordon equation estimates future stock returns by using dividend yield + dividend growth + speculative return. From what I've read so far, historical dividend growth is used to estimate future dividend growth. Why is this? Considering dividend payout ratios have steadily declined and are about h...
by Hallman
Thu Apr 17, 2014 10:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question about the gordon equation
Replies: 2
Views: 195

Sustainable wage increases over the long term?

Here in Norway the annual "wage discussion" or "wage settlement", not sure what to call it, for the norwegian industry, between the employers' organization and the workers' organization is now taking place. One of the leaders of the employers' organization was in the paper today ...
by Hallman
Wed Mar 26, 2014 7:44 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sustainable wage increases over the long term?
Replies: 20
Views: 1172

Rick Ferri's estimated future returns

Looking at Rick's numbers for estimated future returns for large cap stocks, for both developed international and the US, he estimates they'll increase with 5-5.5% real annually (numbers vary a little from year to year). This year's numbers are her: http://www.rickferri.com/blog/investments/portfoli...
by Hallman
Fri Mar 14, 2014 6:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri's estimated future returns
Replies: 8
Views: 2249

Re: Question about hedged bond funds

bumpidy bump bump
by Hallman
Fri Sep 20, 2013 9:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question about hedged bond funds
Replies: 3
Views: 416

Re: The market is on fire

Not for us! USD has dropped about 2.5% relative to NOK since yesterday.
by Hallman
Thu Sep 19, 2013 7:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The market is on fire
Replies: 127
Views: 12461

Question about hedged bond funds

Let's say you live in country A and invest in bonds in country B through a currency hedged fund. Country A has an inflation target of 3% and country B has an inflation target of 2%. Let's say the countries are able to meet their inflation target over time and the risk premium for the bonds is 1%. Is...
by Hallman
Tue Sep 17, 2013 10:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question about hedged bond funds
Replies: 3
Views: 416

Portfolio help. High ER index funds.

My daughter has three index funds available to her: MSCI world: 1.18% ER MSCI Emerging Markets: 1.42% ER OSEBX Index (norwegian stock market): 0.27% ER We're norwegian, and she'll have all her equities in these three funds. I'm not asking for a specific asset allocation recommendation, but does the ...
by Hallman
Sun Aug 04, 2013 6:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio help. High ER index funds.
Replies: 1
Views: 239

Re: Simple question about how market weightings work

I think I understand the concept, I just don't see why it's logical for me as an investor. "Think of it this way. Assume A and B are the total market. You, a billionaire decide to buy the entire market outright, assuming total ownership of A and B. Before the dividend the portfolio value of A a...
by Hallman
Mon Jun 17, 2013 1:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simple question about how market weightings work
Replies: 5
Views: 339

Simple question about how market weightings work

Say you have an index consisting of two almost identical stocks, A and B .Both start the year with a share price of 10 and at the end of the year they're at 11, and you invest $20 at the beginning of the year. The only difference between them is that A pays out a $1 dividend and B doesn't pay a divi...
by Hallman
Mon Jun 17, 2013 11:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simple question about how market weightings work
Replies: 5
Views: 339

International funds - withholding taxes causing shortfall

Considering most of you invest in tax sheltered accounts (no foreign tax credit), why isn't the cost of withholding taxes ever discussed when international investing is the topic? 50 basis points is 3-4-5 times the expense ratio of the funds.. "We find that the U.S.-listed Vanguard Index fund a...
by Hallman
Sat Jun 01, 2013 9:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International funds - withholding taxes causing shortfall
Replies: 1
Views: 430

Re: Vanguard and Norway

Is there no way to buy Vanguard ETFs? It is possible to buy them, I know several who have done so, but it's been mentioned on here in another thread that it might not be a good idea due to estate taxes (I don't know what this is). I sent Vanguard an email regarding it yesterday but haven't received...
by Hallman
Tue May 28, 2013 3:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard and Norway
Replies: 15
Views: 1682

Re: Vanguard and Norway

Thank you. Good thing I am customer at both companies then. I buy my private investments though Skandiabanken (funds) and my business investments though Nordnet (individual dividend stocks). Fees seems not to be a very much discussed topic, they are not easily accessible and I miss ability to sort ...
by Hallman
Tue May 28, 2013 2:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard and Norway
Replies: 15
Views: 1682

Re: Vanguard and Norway

Another thing, many of the funds mentioned have a purchasing fee (usually pretty low - 0.2-0.3%) if you buy them from the companies that run the funds, but you can omit this by buying them at Nordnet or Skandiabanken (these are the only 2 places I know that don't charge purchasing fees for any funds).
by Hallman
Tue May 28, 2013 12:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard and Norway
Replies: 15
Views: 1682

Re: Bond returns prior to 1980 [non-US]

I ordered the books Hope you like at least one. I don’t know how to evaluate the pension, but good that it’s from two sources. Was thinking about possible reasons for expanding into fixed income or cash. My planning includes counting on dividends, even if reduced, but never being forced to sell equ...
by Hallman
Tue May 28, 2013 7:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond returns prior to 1980 [non-US]
Replies: 15
Views: 1308

Re: Vanguard and Norway

Landkreditt actually has a fund that invests in Vanguard Global Stock Index Fund. ER is 1.25% and front fee (or whatever it's called in english..what you pay to purchase the fund) is 3% and fee to sell is 1.25%.

I wouldn't touch it. Too expensive.
by Hallman
Tue May 28, 2013 6:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard and Norway
Replies: 15
Views: 1682

Re: Norway expects 2.7% real return from global bonds

Well, they explain their thoughts pretty clearly it seem: The expectations are intended to apply over very long investment horizons. They represent estimates for average annual real return and volatility over a period of many decades, or over a period that is long enough to encompass many economic ...
by Hallman
Mon May 27, 2013 4:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Norway expects 2.7% real return from global bonds
Replies: 6
Views: 827

Re: Vanguard and Norway

We have more stock index funds than you might think. We definitely aren't the worst country out there. Bonds on the other hand are sparse (KLP has some, which has been mentioned above). KLP AksjeVerden Indeks (14% MSCI Emerging markets, 86% MSCI World, 0.3% ER). DNB Global Indeks (0.3% ER, MSCI Worl...
by Hallman
Mon May 27, 2013 4:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard and Norway
Replies: 15
Views: 1682

Norway expects 2.7% real return from global bonds

I don't know what to make of this. Anyone care to comment? "Global bonds include credit bonds with a share about the same as in the GPFG"s fixed-income portfolio. Expected real return on government bonds is 2.5 per cent, while the real return on credit bonds is about 0.5 percentage points ...
by Hallman
Mon May 27, 2013 3:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Norway expects 2.7% real return from global bonds
Replies: 6
Views: 827

Re: Bond returns prior to 1980 [non-US]

I'll have a pension that will afford me a nice lifestyle, my investments will be gravy on top. How secure is your pension? Is it insured by your government? If it is insured, do you trust the insurance? If there is a big financial crisis, could the insurance (or pension) only cover a modest payment...
by Hallman
Mon May 27, 2013 3:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond returns prior to 1980 [non-US]
Replies: 15
Views: 1308

Re: Do other countries have very low cost index funds?

Here in Norway we have 3 financial institutions offering good index funds. All offer funds that track MSCI World and the norwegian market, and two offer MSCI emerging markets index funds. ER between 0.2-0.4. The funds were introduced after a law was passed that stated that employers must pay all cos...
by Hallman
Sat May 18, 2013 6:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do other countries have very low cost index funds?
Replies: 33
Views: 3512

Bond returns prior to 1980 [non-US]

I'm writing this on my phone, making it hard to organize my post. If it looks scrambled, I'll fix it on my computer later. I'm a 48 years old non US investor with a 7 figure portfolio (usd) in 100% equities (almost all invested in an index fund tracking MSCI World) My plan is to keep it this way, bu...
by Hallman
Fri May 17, 2013 6:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond returns prior to 1980 [non-US]
Replies: 15
Views: 1308

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