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Re: data mining vs. historical performance

There is a fundamental leap of faith required in investing which is a belief in the growth of human wealth.

All else is data mining.

Bogleheading is about relying on data mining as little as feasible.
by Ged
Tue Jan 27, 2015 6:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: data mining vs. historical performance
Replies: 32
Views: 862

Re: Ketogenic Diet anyone?

matjen wrote:This blog would be of interest to those who are interested in learning about low carb/ketones, et. Peter Attia M.D. is very involved and has some amazing qualifications.

http://eatingacademy.com/dr-peter-attia


Huh? He has no qualifications or peer-reviewed publications in the field of nutrition.
by Ged
Tue Jan 27, 2015 11:12 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ketogenic Diet anyone?
Replies: 22
Views: 999

Re: Do you respond to recruiters contacting you?

I generally gave them the names of co-workers I would like to see leave.
by Ged
Tue Jan 27, 2015 9:24 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you respond to recruiters contacting you?
Replies: 17
Views: 975

Re: Scary taxes :(

I wish I was paying $1,000,000 in taxes...

One thing you didn't mention was contribution to tax deferred accounts. That comes right off the top of your income.
by Ged
Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Scary taxes :(
Replies: 18
Views: 3123

Re: 400ft Driveway - How do I plow the snow?

For me it was plowing service. When I lived in Syracuse I had to travel on business from time to time and my DW was not really up to wrestling a snow blower. If you don't travel then either a really heavy duty snow blower or a tractor with a two stage blower like a Deere 5 series (or better) would w...
by Ged
Sun Jan 25, 2015 7:27 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 400ft Driveway - How do I plow the snow?
Replies: 57
Views: 3847

Re: Anyone still keep DVDs?

miles monroe wrote:of course. netflix doesn't have everything.


Especially streaming. I keep my DVDs and CDs because I've seen stuff disappear.
by Ged
Sun Jan 25, 2015 6:44 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone still keep DVDs?
Replies: 25
Views: 1461

Re: Reliability of LED televisions?

I have a Sharp 70" LCD backlit LED TV that is 4 years old. The first one of this model I had died in about a month.

So this is an example of the general rule of electronics is that if it lasts for a few months it's likely to run at least until it's obsolete.
by Ged
Sun Jan 25, 2015 11:18 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Reliability of LED televisions?
Replies: 18
Views: 1203

Re: Poll: Locating deceased person's assets

A pile of stuff belonging to a recently deceased father who had been in cognitive decline. Had his mail forwarded to my address and in a couple of months a previously unknown tiny bank (<$50) account showed up.

I found everything else by going through his files.
by Ged
Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:02 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Poll: Locating deceased person's assets
Replies: 33
Views: 2170

Re: How to get things wrong - Swiss Franc (CHF)

It's an interesting contrast: the goal of the SNB is to bring the value of the CHF down and the goal of the CBR (Central Bank of Russia) is to bring the value of the Ruble up. I wonder if it provides an opportunity for arbitrage. Victoria YIKES! Currency arb = swimming with large hungry sharks. Wit...
by Ged
Sun Jan 25, 2015 9:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to get things wrong - Swiss Franc (CHF)
Replies: 32
Views: 3511

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Not quite sure where you were coming from re Scott's more recent work? As Alien and BR were much earlier. Alien was a tour de force as well, probably one of the most effective horror films ever made. Recent work like Get Santa, various dabblings in video games, the Old Testament etc. High Castle wa...
by Ged
Sat Jan 24, 2015 7:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 442
Views: 57021

Re: Grandfather wanting to transfer portfolio to kids. Ques

It sounds to me like the most reasonable approach would be: 1. Have your mother learn to use Vector Vest. While she is doing so you should learn how to do it too in order to act as an advisor, given your financial training. 2. Have your mother get agent access to the brokerage account so she can man...
by Ged
Sat Jan 24, 2015 12:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Grandfather wanting to transfer portfolio to kids. Question
Replies: 67
Views: 3054

Re: Factors and zero-sum investing

Zero sum is when the total gains and losses by all the participants is zero. Stock markets can create situations where all participants gain or lose. Furthermore the total returns depend on the behavior of the individual investors - the sequence they buy and sell affect the total market valuation.
by Ged
Fri Jan 23, 2015 6:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factors and zero-sum investing
Replies: 57
Views: 2859

Re:

Don't put your will in the safe deposit box, it will be sealed upon death. Instead put a copy in the safe deposit and keep the original at home. Check your state laws first. In many states you can show a copy of the will and gain entry if you are named as the executor. In cases where there are join...
by Ged
Fri Jan 23, 2015 11:32 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anti-theft Fire Waterproof Safe
Replies: 16
Views: 1981

Re: Gotta Be a Bear Market Coming

Based on 2001 and 2007 the sell signal is when you go to the grocery store and the people at the deli counter are talking about the killing they made in stocks or real estate.

Hasn't happened yet.
by Ged
Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Gotta Be a Bear Market Coming
Replies: 64
Views: 7610

Re: $7 gas - what would you do?

No change. I only buy about 120 gallons a year anyway.
by Ged
Thu Jan 22, 2015 12:00 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: $7 gas - what would you do?
Replies: 125
Views: 18593

Re: ANNUITY is unaccaptable & not a good word

dhodson wrote:Defer social security to age 70


+1

Basically what you are doing with this strategy is buying the best annuity available.
by Ged
Wed Jan 21, 2015 11:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ANNUITY is unaccaptable & not a good word
Replies: 8
Views: 979

Re: Netflix DVD delivery slowdown?

Since I like old movies (mostly) that are not available by streaming from anyone, I will stick with Netflix for now. It is also true, however, that a number of these movies are no longer available. A sort of golden age seems to come and gone. I think that's true to some extent. Beside things that h...
by Ged
Wed Jan 21, 2015 8:23 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Netflix DVD delivery slowdown?
Replies: 37
Views: 3190

Re: Netflix DVD delivery slowdown?

Yup you are probably being throttled. It's a well known phenomena. Google it.
by Ged
Wed Jan 21, 2015 6:04 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Netflix DVD delivery slowdown?
Replies: 37
Views: 3190

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Hobbit Part 3. I really have severe reservations about the whole trilogy. It should never have been a trilogy in the first place. It's difficult to swallow the changes from the book for someone who owns a copy of the 2nd ed. of the original. Nonetheless the visuals based on the work of Alan Lee made...
by Ged
Tue Jan 20, 2015 7:47 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 471
Views: 54987

Re: Fidelity heading up new "Dark Pool" ?

Some articles: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100424690 http://nypost.com/2014/12/07/wall-streets-dark-pools-being-drained-by-regulations-losses/ http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-16/dark-pools-said-to-rebuff-orders-amid-u-s-volume-surge.html Mostly it seems it's a way institutions can keep their tradin...
by Ged
Tue Jan 20, 2015 7:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity heading up new "Dark Pool" ?
Replies: 2
Views: 712

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Ellison's work for Outer Limits is also high quality. Demon with a Glass Hand is one of the best TV scripts ever, and of course Soldier which was the basis for the Terminator plagiarism suit. Rumors are out there about a sequel for Demon written for Babylon 5, however that is maybe just talk. Ursula...
by Ged
Tue Jan 20, 2015 6:45 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 442
Views: 57021

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

I have thought about a "historical fiction what-if" scenario based on the Confederacy winning the Civil War and remaining intact as a separate nation with slavery into the 20th century, in which case they may well have sided with Hitler in WW 2, bringing WW 2 onto our soil, and with possi...
by Ged
Tue Jan 20, 2015 5:28 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 442
Views: 57021

Re: Why are fruits not cheaper in California?

Bananas and Apples in California? In January?

Pick something local and in season if you want a good price.
by Ged
Tue Jan 20, 2015 5:03 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why are fruits not cheaper in California?
Replies: 28
Views: 1669

Re: Google Chrome: is this a mega security problem?

If you want to control what is going on with your Google account:

https://www.google.com/settings/dashboard

https://myaccount.google.com/

The latter lets you delete an account all data stored online for that account.
by Ged
Tue Jan 20, 2015 4:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Google Chrome: is this a mega security problem?
Replies: 111
Views: 6526

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

I have started Phillip K Dick's novel, The Man in The High Castle which won the Hugo in 1962. Motivation for reading this now is that Amazon has a pilot for a series based on the novel that is being produced by Ridley Scott. It's an alternate history where the US lost WWII and is occupied by Germany...
by Ged
Tue Jan 20, 2015 3:48 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 442
Views: 57021

Re: “How Does Aging Affect Financial Decision Making?”

One of the great things about Boglehead style is that it doesn't take a lot to use it. It's one of it's strongest points. Active approaches besides all of their other issues are harder to maintain.
by Ged
Tue Jan 20, 2015 1:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “How Does Aging Affect Financial Decision Making?”
Replies: 54
Views: 2749

Re: Fidelity Donor Advised Fund

It is generally hassle free. Very much like online bill pay. The only time I didn't have a grant immediately approved was when I made one to the "JOHN C BOGLE CENTER FOR FINANCIAL LITERACY". I proposed that in December and it is still being evaluated. It will be interesting to see what ha...
by Ged
Mon Jan 19, 2015 10:06 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity Donor Advised Fund
Replies: 50
Views: 3343

Re: Securing my Laptop Prior to Repair

A lot of these small shops subcontract repairs. There is no way I would turn over a machine with my personal data in it. Remove the hard drive. If you are worried about hardware keyloggers it's difficult - you'll probably need to learn to repair your own computers, or buy a new computer when the one...
by Ged
Sun Jan 18, 2015 11:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Securing my Laptop Prior to Repair
Replies: 15
Views: 1088

Re: Suze Orman: $100 into $860k, and cfiresim

That boat is absolutely frugal compared to some Wall Street Yachts.

Bill Miller:

Image
by Ged
Sun Jan 18, 2015 10:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Suze Orman: $100 into $860k, and cfiresim
Replies: 47
Views: 5109

Re: Fire Wife's Advisor and Incur Tax Hit or Stay The Course

So you have a mid six figure account with 100K in cap gains.

The taxes on that would be likely around 15K.

You are paying 2% at least of that 500K every year in fees. That's 10K per year.

The tax hit would be recovered in less than 2 years.

Seems to me that's a no-brainer.
by Ged
Sun Jan 18, 2015 6:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fire Wife's Advisor and Incur Tax Hit or Stay The Course?
Replies: 19
Views: 1882

Re: Survey - Men Who Exercise At a Gym

I generally wear gym clothes unless I am going out with someone, friends, DW etc. They are comfortable, inexpensive and hey I'm retired so I can wear anything I damn well please. It also saves on dealing with the locker room at the gym. So when I show up at the gym it's pretty much in clean clothes ...
by Ged
Sat Jan 17, 2015 8:38 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Survey - Men Who Exercise At a Gym
Replies: 23
Views: 2617

Re: Is $50 oil really the norm?

OPEC has manipulated prices higher to their own benefit since the 1970's. This recent decline is the result of that throttling coming undone as the result of increased production in non-OPEC nations, i.e. the US and Canada and a reluctance of OPEC nations to reduce production because their national ...
by Ged
Sat Jan 17, 2015 8:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is $50 oil really the norm?
Replies: 41
Views: 3470

Re: Reporter doing story on Turbo Tax Fracas

I am a long term TT user. I'm using it again this year because I have some carryover tax losses that I want to handle automatically.

Next year these will probably be over with and I'll be looking at alternatives.
by Ged
Sat Jan 17, 2015 12:07 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Reporter doing story on Turbo Tax Fracas
Replies: 52
Views: 7084

Re: How Long Do You Keep Tax Records?

I keep tax returns and primary data permanently. Real estate transactions and improvements may be needed to establish a basis, and rules have been known to change.

I'm 64, and it's only two boxes. Not a big deal. Maybe next winter I'll digitize it all for a backup.
by Ged
Fri Jan 16, 2015 11:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Long Do You Keep Tax Records?
Replies: 28
Views: 2403

Re: How do I retire?

Your depression should be alleviated to some degree, possibly significantly when it sinks in that you have more than enough to quit. The time, place and manner is up to you. Just avoid breaking any laws doing it. You can probably find some interesting ideas on how to do it on the internet. As far as...
by Ged
Fri Jan 16, 2015 9:21 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do I retire?
Replies: 53
Views: 4690

Re: Eliminating the "Face Palm" Icon

This forum is a little rough and tumble at times. The facepalm icon is one of the more humorous manifestations of that. I'd say leave it and worry more about the overall issue.
by Ged
Fri Jan 16, 2015 5:40 pm
 
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Eliminating the "Face Palm" Icon
Replies: 33
Views: 2037

Re: Short term bonds in rising interest rates?

When picking duration I think you want to consider when you are going to need the money. If it's 5 years or so short term makes sense because there won't be time for increased rates to make up for the price decrease with an intermediate bond. If it's 10 years then intermediate makes sense because th...
by Ged
Thu Jan 15, 2015 10:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short term bonds in rising interest rates?
Replies: 26
Views: 2565

Re: This topic is causing stress in marriage we need some he

Taking out a loan - yuck. These loans may be better than paying the penalty for withdrawal but they do nothing to really reduce the debt. Just moves the problem from one place to another. A loan at 22% interest can be deadly whereas a loan at 6% where you pay the interest to your own 401K can be be...
by Ged
Thu Jan 15, 2015 10:02 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: This topic is causing stress in marriage we need some help
Replies: 81
Views: 7548

Re: Getting deposed -- do I need to hire my own lawyer?

For some reason message delete didn't work.
by Ged
Thu Jan 15, 2015 8:26 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Getting deposed -- do I need to hire my own lawyer?
Replies: 47
Views: 4498

Re: R value of a wall

I agree with Epsilon Delta. For practical applications you need to include the effect of the studs. Otherwise you won't know the heat loss from the entire wall and typical calculations like payback on improving the insulation won't be valid.
by Ged
Thu Jan 15, 2015 8:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: R value of a wall
Replies: 5
Views: 671

Re: This topic is causing stress in marriage we need some he

Milsurpaddict wrote: in addition I also have a large amount of gold silver as an additional retirement income source


The idea that gold and silver are an income source is something most people here would dispute. In any case this sounds like a good place to get the funds to pay off the credit card debt.
by Ged
Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:46 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: This topic is causing stress in marriage we need some help
Replies: 81
Views: 7548

Re: High Net Worth Investing

Of course I might also want to back date this comment to yesterday and say yes, Swiss bank account, in Swiss Francs! :D . (30% up v Euro in chaotic first moments, but still 18% up v USD at end of day, a whale of a move for a first world country's currency in a day). One thing to keep in mind is tha...
by Ged
Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Net Worth Investing
Replies: 84
Views: 10820

Re: This topic is causing stress in marriage we need some he

Taking money from retirement funds to pay installment debt would be a something I'd find really hard to justify. Better to just reduce contributions for a while. The real problem is of course spending and the suggestion to just cut up the cards is one of the standard ways to do it. Taking out a loan...
by Ged
Thu Jan 15, 2015 5:53 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: This topic is causing stress in marriage we need some help
Replies: 81
Views: 7548

Re: cash position in ira or 401k?

I have a tiny amount of cash, basically about 6 months worth, <1% of my portfolio. Money I am likely to spend in the next 5 years is in short term bonds. The rest is in intermediate bonds and equities.
by Ged
Wed Jan 14, 2015 9:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: cash position in ira or 401k?
Replies: 19
Views: 1614

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Rifkin recognizes that established companies tend to become monopolies and oligopolies to defend their profits. But he claims that eventually this defense is broken by the pressure from potential competitors. When the competitors succeed the change is fast and ruthless. Victoria Yes, I think that's...
by Ged
Wed Jan 14, 2015 3:52 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 442
Views: 57021

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Some industries are countering this trend through regulatory capture or oligopoly formation. A classic example is the airlines who went from a very profitable regulated environment to a dog-eat-dog marginal cost environment and capital destruction and back to the current oligopoly where they are pro...
by Ged
Wed Jan 14, 2015 12:35 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 442
Views: 57021

Re: PLEASE advise: steps to take when a person dies

BTW, if I understand GED's reply, unless a relative submits a death certificate to a bank, banks never know about deceased customers, correct? There is another way. When you get into the probate process there is a legal publication of the notice of probate. Banks follow these notices in case they h...
by Ged
Wed Jan 14, 2015 12:11 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: PLEASE advise: steps to take when a person dies
Replies: 19
Views: 1684

Re: Invitation for a Visa Black Card

Yeah, I got one of those a couple of years ago. I'm about average net worth for a Boglehead according to the net worth poll. As soon as I saw the high annual fee and paltry benefits it went straight into the trash.

I had a good laugh so it wasn't all bad.
by Ged
Wed Jan 14, 2015 10:09 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Invitation for a Visa Black Card
Replies: 18
Views: 2511
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