Search found 1102 matches

Return to advanced search

Re: Why not 100% Stocks?

This has come up a lot lately on bogleheads, worryingly so. It might be an informal sign of a market top. ogd, I liked all your other points too, I just thought this might be a new "Boglehead Market Indicator" -- maybe I should tweet it to Jim Cramer! We could call it - % threads asking w...
by FinancialDave
Thu Oct 02, 2014 12:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% Stocks?
Replies: 25
Views: 1376

Re: Why not 100% Stocks?

Thanks Dan. I think that is where I am. I probably need 5% of my portfolio liquid for next 5 years, for cash needs. The rest can be somewhat illiquid. If I don't need it for 10-15 years, then wouldn't I be better just letting it grow in equities? I can afford to wait out bear markets and can rebala...
by FinancialDave
Thu Oct 02, 2014 11:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% Stocks?
Replies: 25
Views: 1376

Re: Warren Buffet Agrees with Dave's Asset Allocation!

When I see posts about Dave Ramsey that are negative but followed by a mention that his getting-out-of-debt message is redemptive, I'm reminded of those interviews with the next-door neighbor of someone discovered to be a heinous criminal, and they invariably say something like "it's so shocki...
by FinancialDave
Thu Oct 02, 2014 11:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey says asset allocation does not work
Replies: 52
Views: 4373

Re: Buffett vs. Bogleheads

This is a simple question because it became too complicated for me. Warren Buffett suggested he would invest 90% of assets in a diversified stock fund (maybe 500 index) and 10% in bonds, for a family relative. How would this pan out over a ten year period compared to the Bogleheads' three-fund plan...
by FinancialDave
Thu Oct 02, 2014 11:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett vs. Bogleheads
Replies: 25
Views: 1642

Re: Buffett vs. Bogleheads

Ya, Here's the whole problem with this post. Buffet is NOT a 10 year investor, he is a multi-generational investor. He was actually on CNBC this morning laughing at the fact that he needs to own bonds, which as he correctly points out - over long time frames will only drag down a portfolio. In fact ...
by FinancialDave
Thu Oct 02, 2014 10:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett vs. Bogleheads
Replies: 25
Views: 1642

Warren Buffet Agrees with Dave's Asset Allocation!

When I see posts about Dave Ramsey that are negative but followed by a mention that his getting-out-of-debt message is redemptive, I'm reminded of those interviews with the next-door neighbor of someone discovered to be a heinous criminal, and they invariably say something like "it's so shocki...
by FinancialDave
Thu Oct 02, 2014 10:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey says asset allocation does not work
Replies: 52
Views: 4373

Re: Dave Ramsey says asset allocation does not work

My question is why would anyone really care what Dave Ramsey says? Larry I'm sure this was probably a rhetorical question, because really there are a lot of reasons. Many of them the same reasons why people post comments, quite rapidly it seems, to any post with Ramsey's name in it. I suspect befor...
by FinancialDave
Wed Oct 01, 2014 7:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey says asset allocation does not work
Replies: 52
Views: 4373

Re: Dave Ramsey says asset allocation does not work

TIPS have made it difficult for stock advocates, because they complicate what would otherwise be a simplistic story: that "bonds" carry inflation risk and stocks do not. I have to admit, I am one of those "idiots" who would never mention TIPS to anyone, because it is just the bo...
by FinancialDave
Wed Oct 01, 2014 6:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey says asset allocation does not work
Replies: 52
Views: 4373

Re: When should someone "not stay the course"?

In my opinion, if you can't stay the course with that, then you should not be investing in stocks . I have to agree with this... I truly hope all the feedback on these threads helps InvestorNewb stay the course during the next crash... Because there WILL be one... And his first instinct is going to...
by FinancialDave
Wed Oct 01, 2014 4:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When should someone "not stay the course"?
Replies: 43
Views: 2447

Re: When should someone "not stay the course"?

I would say the time "not stay the course" would be when the inputs which went into creating your initial IPS have changed or when you acquire some new knowledge which you didn't have at the time you created your IPS. VGTSX being stagnant for 8 years does not meet those criteria. Inputs w...
by FinancialDave
Tue Sep 30, 2014 5:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When should someone "not stay the course"?
Replies: 43
Views: 2447

Re: Dan Wiener

roymeo wrote:I do now recall that Dan Wiener called out some crap fund(s) of Vanguard's for quite a while...anyone recall the fund(s) and story?


He also called out that Vanguard's 3 payout funds probably weren't going to last. Now we are down to one payout fund.

fd
by FinancialDave
Tue Sep 30, 2014 1:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dan Wiener
Replies: 19
Views: 2484

Re: My 30-day trial experience with Betterment

I don't understand why anyone would pay Betterment money to help him/her lose money. Well, because they're actually helping you save money, in the form of reduced taxes. By the way, there's a great article about the benefits of TLH algorithms over at the Mad Fientist: http://www.madfientist.com/mov...
by FinancialDave
Sat Sep 27, 2014 5:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My 30-day trial experience with Betterment
Replies: 61
Views: 6067

Re: My 30-day trial experience with Betterment

Regarding the value of tax-loss harvesting, I found this recent article (and the articles/papers it links to) to be interesting: http://www.etf.com/sections/blog/23212-inside-robo-advisor-tax-loss-harvesting.html?fullart=1&start=5 Of note: the comments section includes links to other worthwhile...
by FinancialDave
Fri Sep 26, 2014 11:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My 30-day trial experience with Betterment
Replies: 61
Views: 6067

Re: Dan Wiener

I am a new Vanguard investor, and have just joined this forum. Is there any merit in subscribing to Dan Wiener's newsletter? Had you been reading Dan's newsletter this month you would have come to find out that Vanguard.com's interactive "Principals for Investing Success" Cost Calculator,...
by FinancialDave
Fri Sep 26, 2014 10:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dan Wiener
Replies: 19
Views: 2484

Re: Can Employer send their Contribution to Traditional IRA?

I don't know why the employer had him set up two IRA's. It seems like the 6.2% into the SEP takes place of the employer's normal half of the SS obligation. The other 6% seems to be more on the employees half of the SS deduction - but in this case the employer seems to be paying it which makes it a s...
by FinancialDave
Fri Sep 26, 2014 7:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Employer send their Contribution to Traditional IRA?
Replies: 11
Views: 754

Re: Can Employer send their Contribution to Traditional IRA?

Can Employer send their Contribution to Traditional IRA? Their contribution to what? If you mean their contribution to 401k, I think the answer must surely be "no". An employer can, if you request it, set up a Payroll Deduction IRA, but this seems to be your IRA or Roth IRA which is simpl...
by FinancialDave
Fri Sep 26, 2014 2:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Employer send their Contribution to Traditional IRA?
Replies: 11
Views: 754

Re: My 30-day trial experience with Betterment

Sure thing. My guess is they will switch back to VWO after 30 days if the IEMG tax lots are at a loss or only a small gain, otherwise they'll wait. I'm not sure what they'll do if the IEMG tax lots never return to near the cost basis. Perhaps they would stay in IEMG indefinitely. I am sorry, but I ...
by FinancialDave
Thu Sep 25, 2014 11:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My 30-day trial experience with Betterment
Replies: 61
Views: 6067

Re: Calculating Bond Fund What-Ifs

Try this promising website: http://longrundata.com/ Put in a mutual fund symbol, the start and end dates, and calculate total return. For the fund above, it has data going back to Jan 2, 1980 In the rectangle that says "blank" Is Now Worth, I enter $100 Seems like an incredible website, p...
by FinancialDave
Thu Sep 25, 2014 5:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculating Bond Fund What-Ifs
Replies: 55
Views: 3636

Re: Can Employer send their Contribution to Traditional IRA?

But if the employer fills up the employee IRA, then this makes it difficult to do any kind of Roth, without having to "convert" some of the money essentially from the IRA's. Backdoor Roth becomes a tax issue as well.

fd
by FinancialDave
Thu Sep 25, 2014 5:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Employer send their Contribution to Traditional IRA?
Replies: 11
Views: 754

Re: We're all going to die!!!

Can't really add anything but my:

:sharebeer
by FinancialDave
Thu Sep 25, 2014 2:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [S&P is down 1.3%, thus] We're all going to die!!!
Replies: 58
Views: 4726

Re: Stubbornly Non-Boglehead Husband. What To Do?

The real issue with losing $500k in a month is that nothing really crazy has happened lately... How much is he betting to lose that much? What happens if the market (or whatever stock he's betting on), or gold really crashes next month? I mean he lost $500k, and gold hasn't moved that much in any s...
by FinancialDave
Thu Sep 25, 2014 2:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stubbornly Non-Boglehead Husband. What To Do?
Replies: 122
Views: 7549

Re: Calculating Bond Fund What-Ifs

You would also need to allow for consuming the dividends (such as in retirement) vs re-investing the dividends, unless you just plan to always re-invest the dividends.

fd
by FinancialDave
Thu Sep 25, 2014 1:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculating Bond Fund What-Ifs
Replies: 55
Views: 3636

Can Employer send their Contribution to Traditional IRA?

The gist of this question is whether an employer can send their contribution to an employee's personal IRA, thus essentially offsetting the employee's possibility of contributing to their own Roth? The situation is that employee gets a direct deposit that he must put in his own IRA that he set up fo...
by FinancialDave
Thu Sep 25, 2014 1:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Employer send their Contribution to Traditional IRA?
Replies: 11
Views: 754

Re: Stubbornly Non-Boglehead Husband. What To Do?

OP Gold Futures contracts, Really? Or is it options on the futures? In my 20's I worked on the floor of the New York Mercantile Exchange NYMEX in the crude oil and gas futures pit as a phone clerk and runner. Later on I worked as a licensed series 3 commodity broker in an office servicing oil and g...
by FinancialDave
Thu Sep 25, 2014 10:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stubbornly Non-Boglehead Husband. What To Do?
Replies: 122
Views: 7549

Re: Stubbornly Non-Boglehead Husband. What To Do?

One other piece of advice is to not mention the term Boglehead to him. This is not helpful and only causes him to shut down.

fd
by FinancialDave
Wed Sep 24, 2014 1:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stubbornly Non-Boglehead Husband. What To Do?
Replies: 122
Views: 7549

Re: Stubbornly Non-Boglehead Husband. What To Do?

A lot of posters have recommended having a contest with him. I think that is a bad idea. There is a hundred million times more performance data than would be represented by such a contest. If finding convincing performance data was the solution then the problem would be gone already. More important...
by FinancialDave
Wed Sep 24, 2014 1:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stubbornly Non-Boglehead Husband. What To Do?
Replies: 122
Views: 7549

Re: Stubbornly Non-Boglehead Husband. What To Do?

OP here. swaption, you have hit the nail on the head! It is absolutely about a difference of objectives. My objective is to preserve what we have and grow it prudently. His objective is to prove to himself that he can succeed at this stock picking thing (and he truly honestly believes that he will ...
by FinancialDave
Wed Sep 24, 2014 1:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stubbornly Non-Boglehead Husband. What To Do?
Replies: 122
Views: 7549

Re: "How to Win the Losers Game -- Part 5"

Thanks Taylor.

I love Fama's characterization of his model:

"The model stands, until it doesn't -- until something better comes along."

That statement doesn't quite seem like the Boglehead way, but it is the way most manage their portfolios.

fd
by FinancialDave
Wed Sep 24, 2014 12:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How to Win the Losers Game -- Part 5"
Replies: 3
Views: 915

Re: 401(k) Roth in-plan conversion or rollover to Roth IRA?

Placeholder, this is the OP's original quote: Next year, I plan to contribute an additional $20,000 as an “after-tax” contribution to my 401(k), which is immediately eligible for a Roth in-plan conversion or rollover to a Roth IRA. My question is: what are the pros and cons of each option , and what...
by FinancialDave
Wed Sep 24, 2014 1:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401(k) Roth in-plan conversion or rollover to Roth IRA?
Replies: 23
Views: 882

Re: 401(k) Roth in-plan conversion or rollover to Roth IRA?

Not exactly. A direct rollover to a Roth IRA was available starting in 2008, but the 2009 IRS Notice may it debatable whether basis could be isolated. For those willing to pay the taxes on the entire rollover, there has not been a problem. This statement seems a little confusing - a "direct&qu...
by FinancialDave
Wed Sep 24, 2014 12:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401(k) Roth in-plan conversion or rollover to Roth IRA?
Replies: 23
Views: 882

Re: 401(k) Roth in-plan conversion or rollover to Roth IRA?

It also sounds like that IRS Notice 2014-54 does not really take affect until Jan. 1, 2015. Prior to Sept. 19th direct Roth rollovers were not allowed (without isolating the basis thru the TIRA, if allowed at all.) Between Sept. 19th to Jan 1st it is up to the plan administrator to decide if they wa...
by FinancialDave
Wed Sep 24, 2014 12:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401(k) Roth in-plan conversion or rollover to Roth IRA?
Replies: 23
Views: 882

Re: 401(k) Roth in-plan conversion or rollover to Roth IRA?

Yes, an employee could take distributions from the after tax sub accounts back as far as the 80s, but no after tax amounts could be rolled into any kind of IRA until 2002. Before that, employees just kept these distributions in taxable. Come 2002, after tax amounts from a 401k could be rolled into ...
by FinancialDave
Wed Sep 24, 2014 12:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401(k) Roth in-plan conversion or rollover to Roth IRA?
Replies: 23
Views: 882

Re: 401(k) Roth in-plan conversion or rollover to Roth IRA?

But it is very likely (based on our observations here) that you can roll out the after-tax sub-account to Roth IRA. Does anyone know of any tax-law that supports this notion. The only way I ever got any excess after-tax money out of my 401(k) was a check sent to me. Seems to me that saying you coul...
by FinancialDave
Tue Sep 23, 2014 5:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401(k) Roth in-plan conversion or rollover to Roth IRA?
Replies: 23
Views: 882

Re: 401(k) Roth in-plan conversion or rollover to Roth IRA?

Thanks for the response everybody, I really appreciate the help. To answer some questions: There is no enough info to know why you are going full bore Roth when you are paying 28%. Maybe there is a good reason such as you being an MD or other professional with a near guaranteed higher tax rate in t...
by FinancialDave
Tue Sep 23, 2014 12:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401(k) Roth in-plan conversion or rollover to Roth IRA?
Replies: 23
Views: 882

Re: Dan Wiener

It's his DREADFUL "hurry, hurry, this is your last chance at this SPECIAL 2-year price", which is NOT particularly low, and the actual cost jumps around in a completely ridiculous fashion (except for the "real low", or so it's seemed to us). Actually, this is what I find almost ...
by FinancialDave
Tue Sep 23, 2014 11:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dan Wiener
Replies: 19
Views: 2484

Re: Planning a self pension/annuity. Mid 30s.

Decent strategy. How large is the yearly floor of expenses you are trying to annuiatize? I would use I-bonds first instead of EE bonds to protect against inflation. That will give you an inflation indexed payment of 20k/yr from I-bonds (10k each for you and wife). It also gives you the flexibility ...
by FinancialDave
Mon Sep 22, 2014 12:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Planning a self pension/annuity. Mid 30s.
Replies: 13
Views: 1151

Re: Rainy day fund

Right now with rates as low as they are I would err on having more cash. There are MM that can get you at least to 1% and when rates go up these will go up without losing any principal. There is nothing wrong with putting say 20% into something like VTSAX, but if the true purpose of the money are si...
by FinancialDave
Mon Sep 22, 2014 12:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rainy day fund
Replies: 6
Views: 628

Re: 401(k) Roth in-plan conversion or rollover to Roth IRA?

Since you ask what we would personally do. I would not put after tax money in a 401(k) at all. I would open a taxable account at Vanguard and invest in VTSAX to build up a nest egg there. Seems like you missed the part where the OP can convert the after tax contributions to Roth of one flavor or an...
by FinancialDave
Mon Sep 22, 2014 11:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401(k) Roth in-plan conversion or rollover to Roth IRA?
Replies: 23
Views: 882

Re: 401(k) Roth in-plan conversion or rollover to Roth IRA?

Since you ask what we would personally do. I would not put after tax money in a 401(k) at all. I would open a taxable account at Vanguard and invest in VTSAX to build up a nest egg there. This gives you an extra "flavor" of diversification that could come in handy for expenses prior to age...
by FinancialDave
Mon Sep 22, 2014 12:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401(k) Roth in-plan conversion or rollover to Roth IRA?
Replies: 23
Views: 882

Re: 401(k) Roth in-plan conversion or rollover to Roth IRA?

...after all, I look at a Roth as a hedge against financial success in becoming well off when your retire, conversely a pre tax retirement plan contribution is a hedge against running into difficulties such as poor health, job loss, divorce, lawsuits etc. Good point. I too think the Roth is being o...
by FinancialDave
Mon Sep 22, 2014 12:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401(k) Roth in-plan conversion or rollover to Roth IRA?
Replies: 23
Views: 882

Re: Proposed: 35% Maximum Bond Allocation, For Life

Just out of curiosity....what if a person retired at 65 and had a 100 pct intermediate bond portfolio of 1 million and planned on withdrawing the 2.3 pct for 30 years and whatever is left goes to the kids.How much would be left at the end....easy to guess :D best and worst case. Hoops, My thought i...
by FinancialDave
Fri Sep 19, 2014 1:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Proposed: 35% Maximum Bond Allocation, For Life
Replies: 37
Views: 3767

Re: Estimated SS COLA for 2015

Ron wrote:
Update: I forgot that I get an extra 8% since I turn 67 in January (even though I have yet to claim). That makes a total of around 9.5% :beer ...

That's better.


I like that thinking.

:sharebeer

fd
by FinancialDave
Wed Sep 17, 2014 7:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Estimated SS COLA for 2015
Replies: 11
Views: 1129

Re: Estimated SS COLA for 2015

If the negative trend of CPI that came out today continues then 1.5% might be closer.

fd
by FinancialDave
Wed Sep 17, 2014 2:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Estimated SS COLA for 2015
Replies: 11
Views: 1129

Re: Proposed: 35% Maximum Bond Allocation, For Life

I agree that with a 2.3% withdraw rate you should be able to last through most anything - IF you have a reasonable strategy. I also don't think you could count on your bonds lasting 15 years at a withdraw rate of 6.6% per year from the bonds. Bonds can suffer principal risk just like stocks. Even if...
by FinancialDave
Wed Sep 17, 2014 2:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Proposed: 35% Maximum Bond Allocation, For Life
Replies: 37
Views: 3767

Re: What risk-return really means

I wonder if readers have missed the point. Here is what Marks is trying to convey: "As you move to the right, increasing the risk: the expected return increases (as with the traditional graphic), the range of possible outcomes becomes wider, and the less-good outcomes become worse." The s...
by FinancialDave
Wed Sep 10, 2014 5:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What risk-return really means
Replies: 41
Views: 2336

Re: What risk-return really means

As opposed to what other kind of distribution? Poisson? Investment returns are generally assumed to follow a normal distribution . The normal distribution is the most common type of distribution, and is often found in stock market analysis. Given enough observations within a sample size, it is reas...
by FinancialDave
Wed Sep 10, 2014 1:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What risk-return really means
Replies: 41
Views: 2336

Re: Best article on Vanguard's philosophy and history?

Best book I have read on this is Bogle's own "The Clash Of The Cultures." It traces the roots of the markets along with the history of Vanguard and his own philosophy on why some things went the way they did.

fd
by FinancialDave
Tue Sep 09, 2014 6:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best article on Vanguard's philosophy and history?
Replies: 10
Views: 724

Re: "Why 97% of People Don't Use 529 College Savings Plans."

I think the conclusion is also important to pay attention too: So while 529 plans have flaws, a low-fee plan is a better option than leaving money in a low-interest bank account that can be raided for frivolous purchases. With college costs up 1,225 percent since 1978, parents need all the help they...
by FinancialDave
Tue Sep 09, 2014 5:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why 97% of People Don't Use 529 College Savings Plans."
Replies: 110
Views: 10626

Re: Help with Tax Advantaged Estate Plan

Thank you all for the very intelligent feedback! This is a great forum. To provide some more background: 1) the state that we live in is California. 2) About 1M of the 2-3M cash/stock is in 401k/IRAs 3) We want to create just 1 living trust The plan is to: 1) Gift $14k to adult son, daughter in law...
by FinancialDave
Fri Sep 05, 2014 4:40 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help with Tax Advantaged Estate Plan
Replies: 11
Views: 690

Re: Help with Tax Advantaged Estate Plan

Do you mean $28k per year ($14K per spouse) to the 5 kids, because that is the only way I see the $140k yearly? Are you planning to spend down the 401k/IRA money, as this will be a source of tax to the kids -- how do you plan to split it up? Equal beneficiaries or have it go to the trust (not a good...
by FinancialDave
Fri Sep 05, 2014 3:45 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help with Tax Advantaged Estate Plan
Replies: 11
Views: 690
Next

Return to advanced search