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Re: Vegas Vacation!

FYI - I edited my Original Post to include more details.

Thank you all!

- Fat Tail
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Thu Oct 16, 2014 2:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vegas Vacation!
Replies: 47
Views: 3146

Vegas Vacation!

Hi fellow Bogleheads:

Any suggestions of sites to see and of course the best deals in the town of Las Vegas?

Areas of Interest: Sun, pools/hot tubs, nature, casinos although not into gambling, buffets/food, site seeing, etc.

Staying 3 nights during the week at SLS Hotel.

Thank you!

- Fat Tail
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Thu Oct 16, 2014 1:10 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vegas Vacation!
Replies: 47
Views: 3146

Investment Policy Statement - share your sample template?

Hi guys,

Would anyone be generous enough to share their sample template of what their Investment Policy Statement (IPS)?

Thank you,

Fat Tail
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Wed Oct 15, 2014 8:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Policy Statement - share your sample template?
Replies: 8
Views: 1202

Re: Correlation Data for Total Bond, TIPS, & Total INTL Bond

As far as I know, int'l bonds funds have short history, so any correlation data is going to have limited meaning. Don't know the answer about total-bonds vs TIPS, but using the Simba worksheet (see wiki), you should be able to figure that out quickly. Why do you ask? I ask because the VG Planner su...
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Tue Oct 07, 2014 2:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlation Data for Total Bond, TIPS, & Total INTL Bond ?
Replies: 13
Views: 978

Re: Correlation Data for Total Bond, TIPS, & Total INTL Bond

Vanguard Financial Planner gave me a nice Correlation Graph that I would like to post here for us all to share but I am having a hard time figuring out how to post a 1 page pdf file.

Any help is appreciated.
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Tue Oct 07, 2014 1:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlation Data for Total Bond, TIPS, & Total INTL Bond ?
Replies: 13
Views: 978

Correlation Data for Total Bond, TIPS, & Total INTL Bond ?

Has anyone seen data on the correlation of these three asset classes (funds) ?

Thank you!

Fat Tail
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Mon Oct 06, 2014 9:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlation Data for Total Bond, TIPS, & Total INTL Bond ?
Replies: 13
Views: 978

Re: Optimum # of Funds in a Portfolio ?

Thanks guys! It seems that a lot of wise investors are simplifying to 3 funds or so. I always thought that Total Stock and Total Intl Stock had such a similar correlation coefficient that there was not enough zigging and zagging with just the Total Bond Fund. But, as always, I remain open-minded. Th...
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Fri Oct 03, 2014 11:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Optimum # of Funds in a Portfolio ?
Replies: 17
Views: 1506

Optimum # of Funds in a Portfolio ?

Assumptions: 1. Holding a portfolio of non-correlated assets (funds) can increase risk-adjusted returns (the most generic interpretation) 2. There is possibly a rebalancing bonus with a disciplined rebalancing program (the most generic interpretation) 3. Similar funds held in different accounts cou...
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Fri Oct 03, 2014 2:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Optimum # of Funds in a Portfolio ?
Replies: 17
Views: 1506

What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal Rate)

Assumptions:

1. Simple Total Markets Fund 60/40 Portfolio
2. 30-year period or whatever the standard model uses as a period of retirement

Thank you for participating!
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Fri Sep 26, 2014 2:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal Rate)
Replies: 77
Views: 3997

Re: POLL: Consumption Inflation % in Retirement

BUMPing to see if anyone else would like to add their vote and/ot two cents.

Thanks!
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Fri Sep 26, 2014 2:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POLL: Consumption Inflation % in Retirement
Replies: 12
Views: 1005

Need Help: State-Specific Bond Funds and Moving ?

Hello dear Bogleheads: 1. I have an OH LT Bond Fund with $3-4k of long term capital gains. I have moved to CA and am working there now. What should I do with this fund? 2. I have some extra money in my taxable checking account and would like to invest in a higher yielding asset (according my IPS I a...
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Sat Aug 23, 2014 2:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need Help: State-Specific Bond Funds and Moving ?
Replies: 6
Views: 595

Re: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With Intnational Bonds

Does anyone have returns data for unhedged intl total bond fund?

It may be used as a diversifying asset aside from the other traditional US-based portfolio strategies...
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Sat Jun 28, 2014 2:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With International Bonds
Replies: 112
Views: 9442

Re: Benjamin Graham thinks current S&P valuations are reason

Why do you think he used a AA bond and not a 10-year Treasury ?
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Sun Mar 02, 2014 1:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Benjamin Graham thinks current S&P valuations are reasonable
Replies: 54
Views: 7696

Re: Optimal Portfolio Drawdown Strategy ?

Thank you for the great information.
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Thu Jan 09, 2014 5:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Optimal Portfolio Drawdown Strategy ?
Replies: 3
Views: 730

Optimal Portfolio Drawdown Strategy ?

1. IRA RMD's from Bond Funds 2. Taxable Muni Bond Fund (where Dividends get swept from all Taxable accounts) 3. IRA Distributions from Bond Funds 4. IRA Distributions from Stock Funds 5. Taxable Stock Funds 6. Roth-IRA Stock Funds Assumptions: Laxy 5-6 fund portfolio, 50/50 AA, want to leave inherit...
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Tue Jan 07, 2014 6:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Optimal Portfolio Drawdown Strategy ?
Replies: 3
Views: 730

Re: POLL: Consumption Inflation % in Retirement

Thanks guys for the insights.

Awesome food for thought!
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Mon Jan 06, 2014 8:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POLL: Consumption Inflation % in Retirement
Replies: 12
Views: 1005

Re: POLL: Consumption Inflation % in Retirement

Thanks Richard and Alan for the sage advice.

I agree on all points.

Thanks everyone for your estimates!
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Sun Jan 05, 2014 11:20 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POLL: Consumption Inflation % in Retirement
Replies: 12
Views: 1005

Re: POLL: Consumption Inflation % in Retirement

The spread between 30 year nominal treasuries and 30 year TIPS is likely close to the market's estimate of inflation over the next 30 years. Call it 2.4%. There's probably some inflation risk premium built in, but bump it up a few tenths for higher retiree expense inflation and the unexpected. Hi R...
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Sun Jan 05, 2014 9:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POLL: Consumption Inflation % in Retirement
Replies: 12
Views: 1005

Re: POLL: Consumption Inflation % in Retirement

Thanks nisprius.

Just looking for a nominal number to plug into a nominal spreadsheet at the moment.
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Sun Jan 05, 2014 8:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POLL: Consumption Inflation % in Retirement
Replies: 12
Views: 1005

POLL: Consumption Inflation % in Retirement

What is your best estimate ?

(assumption: you are retiring soon and trying to predict the inflation on your annualized spending for analysis purposes)

Healthcare including Drugs:
Food:
Energy:
Transportation:
Housing:

Total: x % ?
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Sun Jan 05, 2014 5:27 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POLL: Consumption Inflation % in Retirement
Replies: 12
Views: 1005

Re: Vanguard's worst fund (also #1) in 2013.

Year Total return 2013 – 35.13% 2012 – 12.98% 2011 – 21.70% 2010 37.45% 2009 76.46% 2008 – 56.02% 2007 36.13% 2006 34.30% 2005 43.79% 2004 8.09% 2003 59.45% 2002 33.35% 2001 18.33% 2000 – 7.34% 1999 28.82% 1998 – 3.91%
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Thu Jan 02, 2014 7:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's worst fund (also #1) in 2013.
Replies: 36
Views: 8690

Re: Vanguard's worst fund (also #1) in 2013.

Could there be a more reliable signal of capitulation than when Taylor throws in the towel on an asset class?

PME is getting more and more attractive.

Does reversion to the mean not apply to this asset class?
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Thu Jan 02, 2014 5:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's worst fund (also #1) in 2013.
Replies: 36
Views: 8690

Financial Phenomena - ST Momentum & LT Reversion to Mean

Two significant findings from Finance (whether explained by Behavioral or otherwise) is 1. Short Term Momentum - ~ 1 Quarter 2. Long Term Reversion - ~ 4 Quarters I learned this in Finance in school, does anyone know if this phenomena still exists ? If so, is the duration of the effect the same ? I ...
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Thu Jan 02, 2014 5:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Phenomena - ST Momentum & LT Reversion to Mean
Replies: 4
Views: 352

Re: Getting Best Price for a Prescription Drug

These drugs are very inexpensive if you travel to other countries in this hemisphere.

You could likely get an annual supply for the cost of the vacation.

Just food for thought.
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Thu Jan 02, 2014 4:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Getting Best Price for a Prescription Drug
Replies: 55
Views: 5838

Re: CAPE 26.4 - Would Ben Graham model be at 25/75 : Stock/B

Wow, what a sage!

Thank you for sharing that info on his P/E 7 idea. I would guess that correlates very highly with Shiller's P/E 10 numbers.

I guess that is why he set 50/50 as mark as to not miss out on those periods of good stock perfomance at high valuations...(?)
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Tue Dec 31, 2013 9:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE 26.4 - Would Ben Graham model be at 25/75 : Stock/Bond?
Replies: 15
Views: 1195

Re: CAPE 26.4 - Would Ben Graham model be at 25/75 : Stock/B

StarbuxInvestor wrote:
Fat-Tailed Contagion wrote:http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

What would Ben do?


Was CAPE around when Benjamin Graham was alive?


It was around although likely not revealed to the Human Mind yet.

I think he relied on P/E Ratio using past year's earnings ?
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Tue Dec 31, 2013 8:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE 26.4 - Would Ben Graham model be at 25/75 : Stock/Bond?
Replies: 15
Views: 1195

Anyone use a Valuation Model for Adjusting Stock/Bond Mix?

If, so are you willing to share your methodology?

Thanks!
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Tue Dec 31, 2013 8:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone use a Valuation Model for Adjusting Stock/Bond Mix?
Replies: 0
Views: 145

Re: CAPE 26.4 - Would Ben Graham model be at 25/75 : Stock/B

Thank you! That is exactly what I was thinking...

Where do you find the excerpts from 'The Intelligent Investor' ?
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Tue Dec 31, 2013 8:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE 26.4 - Would Ben Graham model be at 25/75 : Stock/Bond?
Replies: 15
Views: 1195

Re: CAPE 26.4 - Would Ben Graham model be at 25/75 : Stock/B

I didnt read anything in your post relating to my question.
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Tue Dec 31, 2013 8:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE 26.4 - Would Ben Graham model be at 25/75 : Stock/Bond?
Replies: 15
Views: 1195

Re: RBD (Really Bad Day) today ?

Aug 15, 2013

VGPMX +0.80%
GDX +6.03%

What makes for the large gap in performance between VG's Mining Fund and the ETF ?

It seems substanitally different in performance, doesnt make sense.
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Thu Aug 15, 2013 10:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RBD (Really Bad Day) today ?
Replies: 69
Views: 7260

Re: Precious metals fund VGPMX

Today Aug 15 - VGPMX was only Vanguard Fund with a positive return +0.80% (ignoring money market funds paying 0%)

Although, Gold Miners ETF (GDX) was up +6.03% today.

It seems GDX has significantly outperformed VGPMX recently.

Any thoughts ?
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Thu Aug 15, 2013 10:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Precious metals fund VGPMX
Replies: 41
Views: 6473

Car Buy / Lease Decision -> Disruptive Technology

HI BH's. I am in the market for economical transportation - like a Honda Fit type car. How do I factor in disruptive technologies (electric, etc) into the equation of buying versus leasing ? I would not want to own a gasoline engine car and try to sell it into a market in 10 years when the technolog...
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Thu Aug 15, 2013 7:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Car Buy / Lease Decision -> Disruptive Technology
Replies: 6
Views: 786

Re: Source for Correlation Data on Vanguard Funds ?

Cool nis - thanks for that site.

I was referring to the following as "alternative" asset classes, or sector funds I guess you may call them.

VGENX - Energy

VGPMX - Precious Metals and Mining

VGHCX - Health Care

VGSIX - US REIT

VGXRX - INT'L REIT

Thanks!
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Thu Aug 15, 2013 6:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Source for Correlation Data on Vanguard Funds ?
Replies: 5
Views: 456

Source for Correlation Data on Vanguard Funds ?

Dear BH's:

Is there an existing source for historical correlation data on Vanguard funds ?

Specifically, I am interested in learning the correlation of Vanguard's "alternative asset class" funds vs. Vanguard's Total Market funds.

Thank you for sharing,

Fatty
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Thu Aug 15, 2013 5:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Source for Correlation Data on Vanguard Funds ?
Replies: 5
Views: 456

Re: Tax Loss Harvest OH LT Tax Exempt Bond Fund to ?

Thanks! Currently living in CA - should I switch full amount to that fund since it has a $43 net gain. Short term loss and Long term gain. Switch now. Actually having a slight gain in muni's solves some problems that would have been incurred with a realized loss. What problems are there with realiz...
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Fri Aug 09, 2013 4:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Loss Harvest OH LT Tax Exempt Bond Fund to ?
Replies: 10
Views: 445

Things to Do on visit to Sarasota, Florida

Hi Bogleheads,

Any suggestions on what to do and see in Sarasota, FL area would be greatly appreciated.

Thank you!
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Wed Aug 07, 2013 11:27 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Things to Do on visit to Sarasota, Florida
Replies: 9
Views: 726

Re: HSA - Old Employer Plan ?

Would I need to submit receipts somewhere to prove the withdrawal was for medical expenses?
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Sat Aug 03, 2013 2:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HSA - Old Employer Plan ?
Replies: 5
Views: 369

HSA - Old Employer Plan ?

I just received notice in the mail that an old HSA $638 needs to be verified or it will be submitted as property of the state. Can I take this money out of the HSA ? Are there any consequences to that ? It is being feed up each quarter by Chase Bank and slowly losing value. I'd rather just take it o...
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Sat Jul 27, 2013 10:04 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HSA - Old Employer Plan ?
Replies: 5
Views: 369

Re: Tax Loss Harvest OH LT Tax Exempt Bond Fund to ?

Thanks! Currently living in CA - should I switch full amount to that fund since it has a $43 net gain. Short term loss and Long term gain.
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Wed Jun 26, 2013 9:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Loss Harvest OH LT Tax Exempt Bond Fund to ?
Replies: 10
Views: 445

Re: Tax Loss Harvest OH LT Tax Exempt Bond Fund to ?

Havent considered or rejected any. Open-minded at this point to others' experience and direction.
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Wed Jun 26, 2013 8:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Loss Harvest OH LT Tax Exempt Bond Fund to ?
Replies: 10
Views: 445

Tax Loss Harvest OH LT Tax Exempt Bond Fund to ?

I have a small loss in this fund and would like to switch it out for something else and capture the tax loss.

Any suggestions on funds ? I moved out of Ohio so I was thinking a non-state specific fund may be more appropriate.
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Wed Jun 26, 2013 12:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Loss Harvest OH LT Tax Exempt Bond Fund to ?
Replies: 10
Views: 445

Re: Tax Loss Harvest Total Int'l Stock Index Fund

Thank you for the great explanation!

What are the negatives of holding the FTSE ex-USA indefinitely vs. Total Int'l ?
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Sat Jun 22, 2013 6:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Loss Harvest Total Int'l Stock Index Fund
Replies: 11
Views: 920

Tax Loss Harvest Total Int'l Stock Index Fund

I have a loss in a taxed account for this fund.

What is the Boglehead suggested tax loss harvesting operation?

What fund to switch to and when to switch back ?

Thanks!
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Sat Jun 22, 2013 1:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Loss Harvest Total Int'l Stock Index Fund
Replies: 11
Views: 920

Re: Capital Loss Carryovers

Do I also need to to fill out the Capital Loss Carryover form for California state?
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Sun Mar 31, 2013 8:45 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Capital Loss Carryovers
Replies: 11
Views: 1267

Capital Loss Carryovers

Hi,

1. If I have $60,000 in Carryovers, do I have to use all $3000 in 2012 if I want to use them or can I use a lesser amount to offset less income?

2. Can I save them and use them next year if I choose to?

Thank you.
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Sun Mar 31, 2013 7:49 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Capital Loss Carryovers
Replies: 11
Views: 1267

Re: History as a Guide for Current Financial Climate?

Thanks for the thoughtful replies.

Most of the outcomes of similar past experiences seem to be fairly unfavorable, but maybe this time it's different?
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Sat Feb 09, 2013 2:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: History as a Guide for Current Financial Climate?
Replies: 9
Views: 842
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