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Re: 4% Rule Article on Vanguard Site

What return and inflation assumptions did they use in the study?

I am always disappointed that this is not CLEARLY stated in the article/study.
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Thu Dec 04, 2014 9:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% Rule Article on Vanguard Site
Replies: 4
Views: 987

Re: Roth Conversion make sense in our situation?

Thanks Don,

I hadn't considered the additional Medicare "taxes" from higher income levels in retirement.
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Thu Dec 04, 2014 11:41 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth Conversion make sense in our situation?
Replies: 8
Views: 818

Re: Roth Conversion make sense in our situation?

It looks like the model shows we will be in 25% bracket throughout all of the years projected. In the bottom of the bracket at age 68 and 69 and then back up in the middle/upper range when RMD's of $25-30k per year kick in at 70. SUMMARY (?): It sounds like the advantage comes from converting up to ...
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Thu Dec 04, 2014 9:36 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth Conversion make sense in our situation?
Replies: 8
Views: 818

Re: Roth Conversion make sense in our situation?

Bump - added additional details to original post.
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:32 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth Conversion make sense in our situation?
Replies: 8
Views: 818

Roth Conversion make sense in our situation?

Hi Bogleheads, We are approaching retirement and will have RMDs beginning in about 3 years. For two years, our income will be a little lower than normal due to no RMDs and then bump back up when the RMDs kick in. We will not need all of the RMD income for living expenses, so we are considering a Rot...
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Wed Dec 03, 2014 8:27 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth Conversion make sense in our situation?
Replies: 8
Views: 818

Re: Best market solution for large car/small SUV for roadtri

Bumped due to edit for more clarity

Thank you.
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Wed Dec 03, 2014 12:11 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best market solution for large car/small SUV for roadtrips?
Replies: 17
Views: 1486

Best market solution for large car/small SUV for roadtrips?

Hi guys and gals, My family is nearing retirement and considering options for making roadtrips with 3 small dogs and 2 adults to visit family and friends. We currently have two economical sedans for area commuting but would like a larger car/small SUV for road trips. Maybe 3-4 roadtrips per year. 1....
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Tue Dec 02, 2014 12:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best market solution for large car/small SUV for roadtrips?
Replies: 17
Views: 1486

Spending changes in retirement? Vanguard CFP

Hi Bogleheads, We did a recent Financial Plan with a Vanguard CFP as we are retiring in the next year. Our goal is to have all spending budgeted in our model so that we have the best idea of what our annual spending will be. The CFP mentioned that the first 5 years of retirement there is an uptick i...
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Tue Dec 02, 2014 12:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Spending changes in retirement? Vanguard CFP
Replies: 9
Views: 769

Need Help with an Xbox purchase ...

Hi Bogleheads,

I am in the process of buying an Xbox system for a house of young people and I have no idea how to do it.

I just need a system not games.

Thank you the guidance and direction,

Fat Tail
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Sat Nov 15, 2014 7:57 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need Help with an Xbox purchase ...
Replies: 10
Views: 839

Re: Possibility of financial markets breakdown / transformat

Thank you for all of the participation! I must say I am surprised that no on has voted for Invest in Precious Metals. Maybe there is a better way to create a poll around this idea ? Any criticism is appreciated. Well, you might create a poll with only the options: Invest in Precious Metals; or Prec...
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Fri Oct 31, 2014 11:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Possibility of financial markets breakdown / transformation?
Replies: 16
Views: 1828

Re: Possibility of financial markets breakdown / transformat

Thank you for all of the participation!

I must say I am surprised that no on has voted for Invest in Precious Metals.

Maybe there is a better way to create a poll around this idea ? Any criticism is appreciated.
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Fri Oct 31, 2014 10:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Possibility of financial markets breakdown / transformation?
Replies: 16
Views: 1828

Possibility of financial markets breakdown / transformation?

Hi Bogleheads,

Assumption(s):

With the awareness that the financial market exchanges may not be integris and therefore their survival is precarious.

FYI: I set poll so that you may change your vote and the polling duration is unlimited.

Thank you all for the fantastic votes and comments!
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Thu Oct 30, 2014 1:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Possibility of financial markets breakdown / transformation?
Replies: 16
Views: 1828

Re: Vegas Vacation!

FYI - I edited my Original Post to include more details.

Thank you all!

- Fat Tail
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Thu Oct 16, 2014 1:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vegas Vacation!
Replies: 50
Views: 4033

Vegas Vacation!

Hi fellow Bogleheads:

Any suggestions of sites to see and of course the best deals in the town of Las Vegas?

Areas of Interest: Sun, pools/hot tubs, nature, casinos although not into gambling, buffets/food, site seeing, etc.

Staying 3 nights during the week at SLS Hotel.

Thank you!

- Fat Tail
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Thu Oct 16, 2014 12:10 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vegas Vacation!
Replies: 50
Views: 4033

Investment Policy Statement - share your sample template?

Hi guys,

Would anyone be generous enough to share their sample template of what their Investment Policy Statement (IPS)?

Thank you,

Fat Tail
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Wed Oct 15, 2014 7:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Policy Statement - share your sample template?
Replies: 8
Views: 1357

Re: Correlation Data for Total Bond, TIPS, & Total INTL Bond

As far as I know, int'l bonds funds have short history, so any correlation data is going to have limited meaning. Don't know the answer about total-bonds vs TIPS, but using the Simba worksheet (see wiki), you should be able to figure that out quickly. Why do you ask? I ask because the VG Planner su...
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Tue Oct 07, 2014 1:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlation Data for Total Bond, TIPS, & Total INTL Bond ?
Replies: 13
Views: 1016

Re: Correlation Data for Total Bond, TIPS, & Total INTL Bond

Vanguard Financial Planner gave me a nice Correlation Graph that I would like to post here for us all to share but I am having a hard time figuring out how to post a 1 page pdf file.

Any help is appreciated.
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Tue Oct 07, 2014 12:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlation Data for Total Bond, TIPS, & Total INTL Bond ?
Replies: 13
Views: 1016

Correlation Data for Total Bond, TIPS, & Total INTL Bond ?

Has anyone seen data on the correlation of these three asset classes (funds) ?

Thank you!

Fat Tail
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Mon Oct 06, 2014 8:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlation Data for Total Bond, TIPS, & Total INTL Bond ?
Replies: 13
Views: 1016

Re: Optimum # of Funds in a Portfolio ?

Thanks guys! It seems that a lot of wise investors are simplifying to 3 funds or so. I always thought that Total Stock and Total Intl Stock had such a similar correlation coefficient that there was not enough zigging and zagging with just the Total Bond Fund. But, as always, I remain open-minded. Th...
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Fri Oct 03, 2014 10:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Optimum # of Funds in a Portfolio ?
Replies: 17
Views: 1588

Optimum # of Funds in a Portfolio ?

Assumptions: 1. Holding a portfolio of non-correlated assets (funds) can increase risk-adjusted returns (the most generic interpretation) 2. There is possibly a rebalancing bonus with a disciplined rebalancing program (the most generic interpretation) 3. Similar funds held in different accounts cou...
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Fri Oct 03, 2014 1:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Optimum # of Funds in a Portfolio ?
Replies: 17
Views: 1588

What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal Rate)

Assumptions:

1. Simple Total Markets Fund 60/40 Portfolio
2. 30-year period or whatever the standard model uses as a period of retirement

Thank you for participating!
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Fri Sep 26, 2014 1:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal Rate)
Replies: 77
Views: 4133

Re: POLL: Consumption Inflation % in Retirement

BUMPing to see if anyone else would like to add their vote and/ot two cents.

Thanks!
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Fri Sep 26, 2014 1:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POLL: Consumption Inflation % in Retirement
Replies: 12
Views: 1012

Need Help: State-Specific Bond Funds and Moving ?

Hello dear Bogleheads: 1. I have an OH LT Bond Fund with $3-4k of long term capital gains. I have moved to CA and am working there now. What should I do with this fund? 2. I have some extra money in my taxable checking account and would like to invest in a higher yielding asset (according my IPS I a...
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Sat Aug 23, 2014 1:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need Help: State-Specific Bond Funds and Moving ?
Replies: 6
Views: 604

Re: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With Intnational Bonds

Does anyone have returns data for unhedged intl total bond fund?

It may be used as a diversifying asset aside from the other traditional US-based portfolio strategies...
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Sat Jun 28, 2014 1:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With International Bonds
Replies: 112
Views: 11183

Re: Benjamin Graham thinks current S&P valuations are reason

Why do you think he used a AA bond and not a 10-year Treasury ?
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Sun Mar 02, 2014 12:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Benjamin Graham thinks current S&P valuations are reasonable
Replies: 54
Views: 7882

Re: Optimal Portfolio Drawdown Strategy ?

Thank you for the great information.
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Thu Jan 09, 2014 4:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Optimal Portfolio Drawdown Strategy ?
Replies: 3
Views: 735

Optimal Portfolio Drawdown Strategy ?

1. IRA RMD's from Bond Funds 2. Taxable Muni Bond Fund (where Dividends get swept from all Taxable accounts) 3. IRA Distributions from Bond Funds 4. IRA Distributions from Stock Funds 5. Taxable Stock Funds 6. Roth-IRA Stock Funds Assumptions: Laxy 5-6 fund portfolio, 50/50 AA, want to leave inherit...
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Tue Jan 07, 2014 5:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Optimal Portfolio Drawdown Strategy ?
Replies: 3
Views: 735

Re: POLL: Consumption Inflation % in Retirement

Thanks guys for the insights.

Awesome food for thought!
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Mon Jan 06, 2014 7:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POLL: Consumption Inflation % in Retirement
Replies: 12
Views: 1012

Re: POLL: Consumption Inflation % in Retirement

Thanks Richard and Alan for the sage advice.

I agree on all points.

Thanks everyone for your estimates!
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Sun Jan 05, 2014 10:20 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POLL: Consumption Inflation % in Retirement
Replies: 12
Views: 1012

Re: POLL: Consumption Inflation % in Retirement

The spread between 30 year nominal treasuries and 30 year TIPS is likely close to the market's estimate of inflation over the next 30 years. Call it 2.4%. There's probably some inflation risk premium built in, but bump it up a few tenths for higher retiree expense inflation and the unexpected. Hi R...
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Sun Jan 05, 2014 8:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POLL: Consumption Inflation % in Retirement
Replies: 12
Views: 1012

Re: POLL: Consumption Inflation % in Retirement

Thanks nisprius.

Just looking for a nominal number to plug into a nominal spreadsheet at the moment.
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Sun Jan 05, 2014 7:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POLL: Consumption Inflation % in Retirement
Replies: 12
Views: 1012

POLL: Consumption Inflation % in Retirement

What is your best estimate ?

(assumption: you are retiring soon and trying to predict the inflation on your annualized spending for analysis purposes)

Healthcare including Drugs:
Food:
Energy:
Transportation:
Housing:

Total: x % ?
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Sun Jan 05, 2014 4:27 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POLL: Consumption Inflation % in Retirement
Replies: 12
Views: 1012

Re: Vanguard's worst fund (also #1) in 2013.

Year Total return 2013 – 35.13% 2012 – 12.98% 2011 – 21.70% 2010 37.45% 2009 76.46% 2008 – 56.02% 2007 36.13% 2006 34.30% 2005 43.79% 2004 8.09% 2003 59.45% 2002 33.35% 2001 18.33% 2000 – 7.34% 1999 28.82% 1998 – 3.91%
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Thu Jan 02, 2014 6:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's worst fund (also #1) in 2013.
Replies: 36
Views: 8768

Re: Vanguard's worst fund (also #1) in 2013.

Could there be a more reliable signal of capitulation than when Taylor throws in the towel on an asset class?

PME is getting more and more attractive.

Does reversion to the mean not apply to this asset class?
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Thu Jan 02, 2014 4:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's worst fund (also #1) in 2013.
Replies: 36
Views: 8768

Financial Phenomena - ST Momentum & LT Reversion to Mean

Two significant findings from Finance (whether explained by Behavioral or otherwise) is 1. Short Term Momentum - ~ 1 Quarter 2. Long Term Reversion - ~ 4 Quarters I learned this in Finance in school, does anyone know if this phenomena still exists ? If so, is the duration of the effect the same ? I ...
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Thu Jan 02, 2014 4:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Phenomena - ST Momentum & LT Reversion to Mean
Replies: 4
Views: 361

Re: Getting Best Price for a Prescription Drug

These drugs are very inexpensive if you travel to other countries in this hemisphere.

You could likely get an annual supply for the cost of the vacation.

Just food for thought.
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Thu Jan 02, 2014 3:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Getting Best Price for a Prescription Drug
Replies: 55
Views: 6187

Re: CAPE 26.4 - Would Ben Graham model be at 25/75 : Stock/B

Wow, what a sage!

Thank you for sharing that info on his P/E 7 idea. I would guess that correlates very highly with Shiller's P/E 10 numbers.

I guess that is why he set 50/50 as mark as to not miss out on those periods of good stock perfomance at high valuations...(?)
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Tue Dec 31, 2013 8:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE 26.4 - Would Ben Graham model be at 25/75 : Stock/Bond?
Replies: 15
Views: 1201

Re: CAPE 26.4 - Would Ben Graham model be at 25/75 : Stock/B

StarbuxInvestor wrote:
Fat-Tailed Contagion wrote:http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

What would Ben do?


Was CAPE around when Benjamin Graham was alive?


It was around although likely not revealed to the Human Mind yet.

I think he relied on P/E Ratio using past year's earnings ?
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Tue Dec 31, 2013 7:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE 26.4 - Would Ben Graham model be at 25/75 : Stock/Bond?
Replies: 15
Views: 1201

Anyone use a Valuation Model for Adjusting Stock/Bond Mix?

If, so are you willing to share your methodology?

Thanks!
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Tue Dec 31, 2013 7:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone use a Valuation Model for Adjusting Stock/Bond Mix?
Replies: 0
Views: 145

Re: CAPE 26.4 - Would Ben Graham model be at 25/75 : Stock/B

Thank you! That is exactly what I was thinking...

Where do you find the excerpts from 'The Intelligent Investor' ?
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Tue Dec 31, 2013 7:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE 26.4 - Would Ben Graham model be at 25/75 : Stock/Bond?
Replies: 15
Views: 1201

Re: CAPE 26.4 - Would Ben Graham model be at 25/75 : Stock/B

I didnt read anything in your post relating to my question.
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Tue Dec 31, 2013 7:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE 26.4 - Would Ben Graham model be at 25/75 : Stock/Bond?
Replies: 15
Views: 1201

Re: RBD (Really Bad Day) today ?

Aug 15, 2013

VGPMX +0.80%
GDX +6.03%

What makes for the large gap in performance between VG's Mining Fund and the ETF ?

It seems substanitally different in performance, doesnt make sense.
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Thu Aug 15, 2013 9:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RBD (Really Bad Day) today ?
Replies: 69
Views: 7446

Re: Precious metals fund VGPMX

Today Aug 15 - VGPMX was only Vanguard Fund with a positive return +0.80% (ignoring money market funds paying 0%)

Although, Gold Miners ETF (GDX) was up +6.03% today.

It seems GDX has significantly outperformed VGPMX recently.

Any thoughts ?
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Thu Aug 15, 2013 9:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Precious metals fund VGPMX
Replies: 41
Views: 7124

Car Buy / Lease Decision -> Disruptive Technology

HI BH's. I am in the market for economical transportation - like a Honda Fit type car. How do I factor in disruptive technologies (electric, etc) into the equation of buying versus leasing ? I would not want to own a gasoline engine car and try to sell it into a market in 10 years when the technolog...
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Thu Aug 15, 2013 6:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Car Buy / Lease Decision -> Disruptive Technology
Replies: 6
Views: 787

Re: Source for Correlation Data on Vanguard Funds ?

Cool nis - thanks for that site.

I was referring to the following as "alternative" asset classes, or sector funds I guess you may call them.

VGENX - Energy

VGPMX - Precious Metals and Mining

VGHCX - Health Care

VGSIX - US REIT

VGXRX - INT'L REIT

Thanks!
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Thu Aug 15, 2013 5:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Source for Correlation Data on Vanguard Funds ?
Replies: 5
Views: 459

Source for Correlation Data on Vanguard Funds ?

Dear BH's:

Is there an existing source for historical correlation data on Vanguard funds ?

Specifically, I am interested in learning the correlation of Vanguard's "alternative asset class" funds vs. Vanguard's Total Market funds.

Thank you for sharing,

Fatty
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Thu Aug 15, 2013 4:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Source for Correlation Data on Vanguard Funds ?
Replies: 5
Views: 459

Re: Tax Loss Harvest OH LT Tax Exempt Bond Fund to ?

Thanks! Currently living in CA - should I switch full amount to that fund since it has a $43 net gain. Short term loss and Long term gain. Switch now. Actually having a slight gain in muni's solves some problems that would have been incurred with a realized loss. What problems are there with realiz...
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Fri Aug 09, 2013 3:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Loss Harvest OH LT Tax Exempt Bond Fund to ?
Replies: 10
Views: 446

Things to Do on visit to Sarasota, Florida

Hi Bogleheads,

Any suggestions on what to do and see in Sarasota, FL area would be greatly appreciated.

Thank you!
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Wed Aug 07, 2013 10:27 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Things to Do on visit to Sarasota, Florida
Replies: 9
Views: 731
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