Search found 4584 matches

by Fallible
Mon Jul 27, 2015 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking to Simplify Portfolio
Replies: 17
Views: 872

Re: Looking to Simplify Portfolio

Hi. 3. I am unsure what my allocations *should* be. A question like this turns into a long, drawn-out answer from my FA at UBS. I am a small-business owner and do not necessarily have as much time as I would like to educate myself which is why I have been using the FA for the past decade. I have co...
by Fallible
Mon Jul 27, 2015 3:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 988
Views: 157436

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Yes, hindsight is just that. And once the grenade was spotted, he was justified - and trained - to shoot. People go through training of all kinds, but when you have to do something the first time for real who knows how you will act. Who is to say if he had shot the mom earlier, that the son wouldn'...
by Fallible
Mon Jul 27, 2015 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The forgotten inaccuracies of our small predictions
Replies: 13
Views: 1115

Re: The forgotten inaccuracies of our small predictions

The same thing happens to me with books. I read the book, and form a mental image of the characters and the settings. Of course, if this is a series of books, my mental image gets stronger and stronger with each book. And then the movie or TV series comes out and I'm completely disgruntled that MY ...
by Fallible
Mon Jul 27, 2015 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The forgotten inaccuracies of our small predictions
Replies: 13
Views: 1115

Re: The forgotten inaccuracies of our small predictions

I would say the mental images you describe are the imagination at work and it's a beautiful thing, the imaginative mind. Losing what is imagined seems more a matter of memory, though I couldn't explain it and it's less important anyway. Being able to imagine is most important. “Imagination is more i...
by Fallible
Mon Jul 27, 2015 12:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 988
Views: 157436

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

American Sniper . It was better than I expected, I liked it. Acting was very good, but by the time the movie ended, it seemed the sniper angle was almost incidental to the psychological impact of war. Also, I was puzzled by some of the early sniper scenes, in particular the woman and young boy. Why...
by Fallible
Mon Jul 27, 2015 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Motley Fool - Good Enough Why rules of thumb beat precision
Replies: 21
Views: 1698

Re: Motley Fool - Good Enough Why rules of thumb beat precision

Rules of thumb may not always or necessarily beat precision, but as Housel says, "In a messy world of emotions and misinformation, broad rules of thumb can be an excellent strategy. Rules of thumb aren't perfect, of course. But that's their advantage. By starting with a strategy you know isn't ...
by Fallible
Mon Jul 27, 2015 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Book Recommendation for New Investor
Replies: 10
Views: 510

Re: Book Recommendation for New Investor

Hello. My 24 year old daughter has set-up her first investment account using Vanguard funds recommended by my financial planner. She's asked me for some book and/or blog recommendations to learn the basics of investing. Forum member recommendations are valued and appreciated. Another vote for John ...
by Fallible
Mon Jul 27, 2015 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need a Piece of Evidence on the Boglehead Strategy
Replies: 30
Views: 2023

Re: Need a Piece of Evidence on the Boglehead Strategy

Hey Everyone, I received some very thoughtful responses to a question I asked last time about moving mine and my wife's portfolio from an adviser that charges a 1% fee to Vanguard. This person also I'm just finding out has us invested in funds with a load of 5.75% on average, which I'm assuming we ...
by Fallible
Sun Jul 26, 2015 10:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 988
Views: 157436

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

American Sniper . It was better than I expected, I liked it. Acting was very good, but by the time the movie ended, it seemed the sniper angle was almost incidental to the psychological impact of war. Also, I was puzzled by some of the early sniper scenes, in particular the woman and young boy. Why...
by Fallible
Sun Jul 26, 2015 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Scott Burns – Don’t quit your day job.
Replies: 85
Views: 7418

Re: Scott Burns – Don’t quit your day job.

... This year Scott Burns is telling us not to quit our day jobs. Last year he was telling us to be sure and get our bucket list done before age 80. http://assetbuilder.com/scott_burns/the_hedonic_clock Young Morgan Housel seems to have the correct perspective on matters involving precision vs. rul...
by Fallible
Sun Jul 26, 2015 7:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Can you return food at a restaurant and not have to pay for it?
Replies: 42
Views: 3565

Re: Can you return food at a restaurant and not have to pay for it?

Last week, I had a lunch with an old friend who I haven't seen in quite a long time. We decided to eat a local restaurant that was somewhat more expensive than where I typically dine. My friend ordered a roast beef panini that cost $20. When the panini was served, my friend took one look at it and ...
by Fallible
Sun Jul 26, 2015 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the commodity implosion foretelling a stock market crash?
Replies: 26
Views: 2571

Re: Is the commodity implosion foretelling a stock market crash?

pkcrafter wrote:Nisiprius wrote:
Maybe the general rule is that whatever indicator is foretelling a stock market crash is the indicator we are apt to pay attention to.

Yes, but it's always better to choose the indicator after the event.
Paul

:)
by Fallible
Sun Jul 26, 2015 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Scott Burns – Don’t quit your day job.
Replies: 85
Views: 7418

Re: Scott Burns – Don’t quit your day job.

Burns isn't predicting anything; he's just sayin' based on, as he said, "simple arithmetic." And it's all good to know, even if for some it's just a reminder, for those planning for retirement and those retired. The only quibble I'd have is that he ends with the only advice to not quit a d...
by Fallible
Sun Jul 26, 2015 12:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Would you look down on a co-worker for driving a beater?
Replies: 121
Views: 6407

Re: Would you look down on a co-worker for driving a beater?

OP, I'd be more concerned about what you think others think about you and your cars than what others actually think about you and your cars. Besides, we can't know what others think. Think about that.
by Fallible
Sat Jul 25, 2015 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fear Not the Inevitable Stock Market Correction
Replies: 19
Views: 3282

Re: Fear Not the Inevitable Stock Market Correction

Many recent posters have expressed concerns about today's elevated stock market levels and their fear of a market correction. This post is intended to give a broader, historical perspective on yearly market drops and to show they are, 1) very common, and 2) not an impediment to strong annual gains....
by Fallible
Fri Jul 24, 2015 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Psy-Fi Blog's "The Big List of Behavioral Biases"
Replies: 2
Views: 426

Re: The Psy-Fi Blog's "The Big List of Behavioral Biases"

Seems a good site, but who's behind it? Didn't see an About page. Also surprised not to see Daniel Kahneman's "Thinking, Fast and Slow" on the reading list. The BH wiki has a list of behavioral pitfalls and more on BE, plus "The Bogleheads' Guide to Investing" has a good chapter ...
by Fallible
Wed Jul 22, 2015 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Value of Financial Advice" by Wade Pfau
Replies: 13
Views: 2161

Re: "The Value of Financial Advice" by Wade Pfau

Very interesting article and thanks for posting, Taylor. I did have trouble with that part of the "Conclusion" that states: "If you have the time, interest, energy, knowledge, emotional discipline, and desire to do this on your own, then you would make an excellent advisor. If your ad...
by Fallible
Wed Jul 22, 2015 10:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bogle backfire?
Replies: 66
Views: 7643

Re: Bogle backfire?

I am a follower of the boglehead tenets. While new member, I am a long time lurker and have spent tons of time reading the site and books from Bogle, Swedroe and cohorts. I have some observations and experiences that I wanted to share. This is meant more as a discussion than a critique of Boglehead...
by Fallible
Wed Jul 22, 2015 10:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Parent caught up in forex (vietnamese dong) scam... What should I do?
Replies: 44
Views: 5294

Re: Parent caught up in forex (vietnamese dong) scam... What should I do?

A couple months ago my mom called and told about an "investment opportunity" that she had already put her money in, and didn't want me to miss out (or any of my siblings, some of which had already put their money in too). A friend had told her about an imminent revaluation of the Vietname...
by Fallible
Wed Jul 22, 2015 9:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bogle backfire?
Replies: 66
Views: 7643

Re: Bogle backfire?

I am a follower of the boglehead tenets. While new member, I am a long time lurker and have spent tons of time reading the site and books from Bogle, Swedroe and cohorts. I have some observations and experiences that I wanted to share. This is meant more as a discussion than a critique of Boglehead...
by Fallible
Wed Jul 22, 2015 7:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Greatest money lesson movie
Replies: 63
Views: 5420

Re: Greatest money lesson movie

dumbmoney wrote:Fargo


If it's not the greatest movie about money, this surely is one of the greatest scenes.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8cOlwnJ24AE
by Fallible
Wed Jul 22, 2015 10:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Greatest money lesson movie
Replies: 63
Views: 5420

Re: Greatest money lesson movie

Among the greatest, "The Maltese Falcon."
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hp7130Bjec4
by Fallible
Mon Jul 20, 2015 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing for 23 year old aggressive investor
Replies: 19
Views: 1573

Re: Investing for 23 year old aggressive investor

... I currently do not have other investments besides about 15k in 30yr bonds that haven't matured yet that I inherited. This is my first job out of college that I started in january. I'd consider myself aggressive because of my long time horizon and would be ok with a 30% market drop at this point...
by Fallible
Mon Jul 20, 2015 6:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Home made dog food
Replies: 7
Views: 656

Re: Home made dog food

Were you able to get a vet's diagnosis of your dog's problems? If so, was any treatment recommended and tried? Vets have many different kinds of food to recommend depending on the problem and nutrients needed.
by Fallible
Mon Jul 20, 2015 4:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recommend a magazine with good writing like the New Yorker
Replies: 53
Views: 3278

Re: Recommend a magazine with good writing like the New Yorker

While as a science person, I definitely understand all the reasons why this is a good thing, for my personal reading, I find I do prefer having personal insights, like how the issues discuss directly impact and affect individuals and their emotions, even if it's not representative of the whole. In ...
by Fallible
Mon Jul 20, 2015 1:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recommend a magazine with good writing like the New Yorker
Replies: 53
Views: 3278

Re: Recommend a magazine with good writing like the New Yorker

After The New Yorker, The Atlantic, and Harper's and after that (and also reading special interest articles from other good publications) who's got time after also reading good books? If only Saturday Review (formerly Saturday Review of Literature) under Norman Cousins were still around, I'd still p...
by Fallible
Sun Jul 19, 2015 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Visual History of Market Crash Predictions
Replies: 12
Views: 2330

Re: A Visual History of Market Crash Predictions

A good read and thanks for the post. I checked the website's "About" page to see who is behind it all and found this reference to the Bogleheads: Andy Hagans, Editor in Chief, and Poseidon Financial CEO: Andy is an entrepreneur with a background in marketing and finance. He is passionate a...
by Fallible
Sat Jul 18, 2015 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does Jamie Dimon know? -- "Don't freak out."
Replies: 2
Views: 807

Re: What does Jamie Dimon know? -- "Don't freak out."

Dimon basically is reminding investors forever prone to get hung up on the short-term to think long-term, to keep it in perspective. The article's last graf nicely sums it up: "The mistake isn't in failing to heed the news. Instead, it lies in giving the short-term news cycle far too much weigh...
by Fallible
Fri Jul 17, 2015 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jason Zweig, Behavioral Finance: What Good Is It, Anyway?
Replies: 21
Views: 2969

Re: Jason Zweig, Behavioral Finance: What Good Is It, Anyway?

I was glad to hear Zweig does know what good behavioral finance is :) (I boldfaced some of his comments): "Whether you are able to turn the theory of behavioral finance into the practice of superior investment management does not depend on how diligently you master the research of the great min...
by Fallible
Fri Jul 17, 2015 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "My Too-Long Journey To Becoming An Index Fund Investor"
Replies: 12
Views: 2402

Re: "My Too-Long Journey To Becoming An Index Fund Investor"

Many of us Bogleheads took that "Too-long journey" that Rick writes about. I didn't discover Jack Bogle and indexing until the late '80s, but at least I discovered them. "Thanks to Rick for another good article and to Taylor for the link. I also liked the reference to the problem with...
by Fallible
Fri Jul 17, 2015 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emergency boglehead evangelist kit?
Replies: 19
Views: 2073

Re: Emergency boglehead evangelist kit?

So a unique opportunity came up. I got to meet the individual who manages the benefits programs for our mid-sized company. This person decides which 401k vendor to use and such. This person is also fairly new to the job and not tied past decisions. As I talked with the person I learned that they we...
by Fallible
Thu Jul 16, 2015 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Probability/statistics thinkers: should a skilled speculator go broke?
Replies: 36
Views: 2820

Re: Probability/statistics thinkers: should a skilled speculator go broke?

Skill and behaviour aren't necessarily the same thing .. Being a Boglehead is a matter of behaviour, and requires no skill at all - yet by removing skill (a negative sum game after expenses), it ensures you do better than most ... Unless you mean only the skills of actual trading, the Bogleheads' p...
by Fallible
Thu Jul 16, 2015 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Probability/statistics thinkers: should a skilled speculator go broke?
Replies: 36
Views: 2820

Re: Probability/statistics thinkers: should a skilled speculator go broke?

... The question I have is this. Regarded objectively, if we look at the career of a speculator who makes and loses several fortunes-- with the starting points and ending points both being zero -- what can we say about the evidence for a role of skill? ... But, speaking objectively, and looking at ...
by Fallible
Wed Jul 15, 2015 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Shiller's Continuing Demise
Replies: 36
Views: 5951

Re: Robert Shiller's Continuing Demise

pdriesek: I am pleased to see you are keeping an open mind. I look at my investments only a few times a year to rebalance and take RMDs. I gave up trying to "beat the market" long ago. Mr. Bogel is right. "Stop looking for the needle in the haystack. Buy the haystack." Best wish...
by Fallible
Wed Jul 15, 2015 7:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are the more expensive bikes worth paying for?
Replies: 78
Views: 3892

Re: Are the more expensive bikes worth paying for?

That said, I was thinking of getting a better/faster bike Are the more expensive bikes worth it? There's always a lot of subjective matters when it comes to worth on any topic and it's not just about the item itself. What are you expecting from a "better" bike? What are you unhappy with r...
by Fallible
Wed Jul 15, 2015 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Rational People are Risk Averse
Replies: 33
Views: 3621

Re: Why Rational People are Risk Averse

Other good books on the subject of the rational/irrational, risk-averse human:

-Thinking, Fast and Slow, by Daniel Kahneman
-Predictably Irrational, by Dan Ariely
-Your Money and Your Brain, by Jason Zweig
by Fallible
Wed Jul 15, 2015 12:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are the more expensive bikes worth paying for?
Replies: 78
Views: 3892

Re: Are the more expensive bikes worth paying for?

I'm a recreational biker. I will occasionally ride the local bike trails or the back roads. I usually ride for an hour or so and count it as part of my workout routine. The weather hasn't been cooperative so it's been one every couple of weeks. I have been riding a Huffy bike that I purchased at Wa...
by Fallible
Tue Jul 14, 2015 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tilting allocation - Energy
Replies: 20
Views: 1363

Re: Tilting allocation - Energy

I have long followed the three fund portfolio, but towards extreme times I feel it may be justified to tilt. Has anyone tilted there allocation in the past in "extreme events" and have experiences to share? I am currently thinking I may tilt my three fund allocation (VTI, VXUS, BND) this ...
by Fallible
Tue Jul 14, 2015 7:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Having Trouble buying big ticket item
Replies: 57
Views: 4537

Re: Having Trouble buying big ticket item

... No issues, just frugal. Both of us. Neither one of us spend a lot of money on wants since we don't have expensive tastes. So the idea of spending more than a few hundred dollars on a toy...it's tough for both of us to justify. You've really identified the problem twice - here and in the last gr...
by Fallible
Mon Jul 13, 2015 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If You Slice and Dice
Replies: 22
Views: 2967

Re: If You Slice and Dice

I have a natural tendency to "tinker," but I also understand the risk of making behavioral errors when I do. If you are a tinkerer and you slice and dice , or tilt, how do you deal with managing behavioral risks? ... From my viewpoint as a believer in wise investing being "simple, bu...
by Fallible
Sun Jul 12, 2015 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mullainathan: Why Investing Is So Complicated
Replies: 30
Views: 2406

Re: Mullainathan: Why Investing Is So Complicated

We've also seen similar mea culpa stories about other people highly successful in their own fields and highly unsuccessful at investing their own money. But what's the lesson from these examples? The main reason we do not see such articles (although there is this one: https://www.bogleheads.org/for...
by Fallible
Sun Jul 12, 2015 3:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: No Income (yet) means No Loan
Replies: 21
Views: 2011

Re: No Income (yet) means No Loan

OP here. I'm thinking out loud that there might be a chance the owners could carry the contract for 5 years or long enough for me to establish a record of income due to social security. I bought my first house in this fashion. You would take SS at 62 only to get this loan? I was planning on taking ...
by Fallible
Sun Jul 12, 2015 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mullainathan: Why Investing Is So Complicated
Replies: 30
Views: 2406

Re: Mullainathan: Why Investing Is So Complicated

The NYTimes seems to publish now every year now a "Help! I don't understand how to invest for retirement" article from someone who should know better, but does not. Before this weekend's article by Mullainathan, we had the well-received John Schwartz article about his retirement discussed...
by Fallible
Sun Jul 12, 2015 2:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: An email to my employer I almost sent, but then deleted
Replies: 26
Views: 3989

Re: An email to my employer I almost sent, but then deleted

If I were to send such an email, I would word it quite differently. As mentioned by another poster, you catch more with honey than with vinegar. So I would not have accused them of forgoing their fiduciary duty and I would not have accused them of using marketing materials to deceive naive investor...
by Fallible
Sun Jul 12, 2015 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any empirical evidence that suggests waiting for a dip
Replies: 54
Views: 3248

Re: Any empirical evidence that suggests waiting for a dip

Hi. I know there are a lot of smart people here that when they get cash or are going to make a yearly investment that they wait for a dip. I know the finance buff said he does this with 2% because he says that in almost all years the market comes down 2% from the beginning. My concern is that this ...
by Fallible
Sun Jul 12, 2015 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 21 year old making first investment
Replies: 10
Views: 440

Re: 21 year old making first investment

I currently make 23k a year and have 12k in saving, I am already putting 15% of my income into a 401k (70% small cap, 20 international, and 10 big cap). I was looking to invest some savings money instead of having it collect only nineteen cents of interest a month. I was thinking about going for a ...
by Fallible
Sun Jul 12, 2015 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mullainathan: Why Investing Is So Complicated
Replies: 30
Views: 2406

Re: Mullainathan: Why Investing Is So Complicated

It's not investing that's so complicated, it's the human being. In this article, we once again see why.
by Fallible
Sat Jul 11, 2015 11:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: No Income (yet) means No Loan
Replies: 21
Views: 2011

Re: No Income (yet) means No Loan

Peterjens wrote:OP here. I'm thinking out loud that there might be a chance the owners could carry the contract for 5 years or long enough for me to establish a record of income due to social security. I bought my first house in this fashion.


You would take SS at 62 only to get this loan?
by Fallible
Sat Jul 11, 2015 11:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where are people putting their investment money if they see a correction coming in US stock market
Replies: 69
Views: 7539

Re: Where are people putting their investment money if they see a correction coming in US stock market

Every financial advisor I have met with lately says the same thing - basically, there is going to be a 30-50% correction in the stock market in the next 2-3 years. My question is I want to get out of equities altogether until this correction happens. Where do you put your money then? I was thinking...

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