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Re: "What Has Time Taught Bill Bernstein?"

Thanks, Taylor, for a very good article by Rekenthaler on Bill's book, Rational Expectations . The article is interesting on the difference between the powerful mind and the powerful mindset, and I look forward to reading the book for more on that and the "two themes of using numbers carefully,...
by Fallible
Wed Jul 23, 2014 10:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What Has Time Taught Bill Bernstein?"
Replies: 10
Views: 2174

Re: Reaching Severe Burnout - Can I Scale Back Career?

Thank you all for the sincere responses and encouragement. Yes the plan is to attempt to start a family next year, something I am very much looking forward to. To answer another question, I am invested very much boglehead style albeit probably slightly conservative (60/40). Should also be noted tha...
by Fallible
Wed Jul 23, 2014 12:57 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Reaching Severe Burnout - Can I Scale Back Career?
Replies: 41
Views: 3101

Re: Reaching Severe Burnout - Can I Scale Back Career?

You are not "reaching severe burnout" - you are there, you are burned out. Please take steps as soon as you can to scale back. You are risking stress that can damage your health. You also have reached your initial goals and are doing quite well financially with a promising future - person...
by Fallible
Wed Jul 23, 2014 11:47 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Reaching Severe Burnout - Can I Scale Back Career?
Replies: 41
Views: 3101

Re: Can it be wrong to be too risk averse?

My brother and I had a few chats over the weekend. He is very risk averse and invests only in very high rated bonds (mostly muni bonds). He knows he is leaving profits on the table, and he knows these investment choices offer higher than 0% risk. He has a good job, quite secure, and he is a decentl...
by Fallible
Tue Jul 22, 2014 6:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can it be wrong to be too risk averse?
Replies: 49
Views: 2277

Re: Which kind of bike for recent retiree?

I was able to end the sore wrists and shoulders by losing weight (surprise, surprise) and working with the bike shop to adjust the handlebars to a height that finally felt right. Proper technique helps here too. Your wrists should be straight, not bent backwards . Let up the death grip on the bars....
by Fallible
Mon Jul 21, 2014 1:44 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which kind of bike for recent retiree?
Replies: 48
Views: 2556

Re: Which kind of bike for recent retiree?

... As for aching shoulders and aching numb wrists, it may be hard to avoid those, but good gloves with gel and good handlerbar tape can help. Lots of things are probably going to hurt for any age-50 person who hasn't ridden a bike in years. ... I was able to end the sore wrists and shoulders by lo...
by Fallible
Mon Jul 21, 2014 11:26 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which kind of bike for recent retiree?
Replies: 48
Views: 2556

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V

... I’ve recently been exploring graphic narratives, trying to acquaint myself with this literary format. I've also been sampling this genre, which still doesn't seem to quite know what it is or can be. I've read only two such novels, mainly because I liked the previous work of the cartoonists. The...
by Fallible
Sun Jul 20, 2014 10:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V
Replies: 3102
Views: 998158

Re: I was tempted to market time and didn't

As part of the Boglehead philosophy, I have avoided market timing and have not done so since I've started reading this forum. However, after the events on Thursday, I was tempted to after the big drop on Thursday which I had a feeling was due to an overreaction to events that would likely reverse (...
by Fallible
Sat Jul 19, 2014 6:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I was tempted to market time and didn't
Replies: 19
Views: 1806

Re: Market Timing vs. Market Opportunity

Thank you all for your input. I realize now that asking a market timing question on this board is akin to preaching atheism in a Baptist church. I have since decided to use most of my retirement money to open an ostrich farm in Arizona. That market has been down so long now it's bound to bounce bac...
by Fallible
Sat Jul 19, 2014 1:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing vs. Market Opportunity
Replies: 46
Views: 2890

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V

American Sucker , by David Denby. The author got caught up in the tech boom and bust. Here's a New York Times review... http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/25/books/a-fool-and-his-money.html Thanks for mentioning this book, which I just read. Thanks to both of you, I'm halfway through and can't put it d...
by Fallible
Sat Jul 19, 2014 1:03 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V
Replies: 3102
Views: 998158

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V

... I’ve recently been exploring graphic narratives, trying to acquaint myself with this literary format. Here is an example of a fascinating premise: What if infant superman’s ship had crash landed on a collective in Soviet-era Siberia instead of on a family farm in Kansas? To see this premise dev...
by Fallible
Fri Jul 18, 2014 12:38 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V
Replies: 3102
Views: 998158

Re: Market Timing vs. Market Opportunity

Absolutely. Set a limit, let's say 10%, either way. If it goes up or down 10%, you go back in the market. If you're right, great. If you're wrong, darn. But this is the point I'm trying to make here-- Nobody knows for sure what the market will do, but the odds of it going down when QE ends are bett...
by Fallible
Thu Jul 17, 2014 11:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing vs. Market Opportunity
Replies: 46
Views: 2890

Re: It is time to retire when you .......

...when your planned hobbies and other activities would take more than a lifetime, even not counting the time wasted on work. Victoria I don't know if you're joking here, but some hobbies, especially unexpected ones, can require learning almost from the beginning and the learning can't be rushed. I...
by Fallible
Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:46 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: It is time to retire when you .......
Replies: 104
Views: 9627

Re: Market Timing vs. Market Opportunity

... If you look at the market at the beginning and end of both QE1 and QE2, it's like someone flipping on and off a switch. So while no one is guaranteed anything, there's precedence for the thought that the market will drop in October.... Thoughts? Some thoughts from Mark Twain: “October: This is ...
by Fallible
Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing vs. Market Opportunity
Replies: 46
Views: 2890

Re: Teacher Considering Career Change

If you love teaching, I hope the advice here will help you find a way to stay in this vital profession. I'm not a teacher (although two family members had long teaching careers at the high school and college levels), but I am forever grateful for the good teachers I had in high school and college. ...
by Fallible
Thu Jul 17, 2014 2:21 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Teacher Considering Career Change
Replies: 49
Views: 3288

Re: Teacher Considering Career Change

If you love teaching, I hope the advice here will help you find a way to stay in this vital profession. I'm not a teacher (although two family members had long teaching careers at the high school and college levels), but I am forever grateful for the good teachers I had in high school and college. A...
by Fallible
Thu Jul 17, 2014 11:56 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Teacher Considering Career Change
Replies: 49
Views: 3288

Re: Article: Conversation with John Bogle - Part II

More memorable Jack Bogle quotes here, but this is my favorite: "Indexing works because the math is correct, and that's all there is to it." I like his comments on Lewis's book, but I wish he'd been asked what he thinks the future of the new exchange, IEX, might be and whether the fledglin...
by Fallible
Wed Jul 16, 2014 8:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article: Conversation with John Bogle - Part II
Replies: 11
Views: 1455

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V

American Sucker , by David Denby. The author got caught up in the tech boom and bust. Here's a New York Times review... http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/25/books/a-fool-and-his-money.html Thanks for mentioning this book, which I just read. It's almost just another story of a big-time loser in a marke...
by Fallible
Wed Jul 16, 2014 3:47 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V
Replies: 3102
Views: 998158

Re: Another reason I am my own advisor

...Since turning 55, I have noticed a big spike in the number of dinner invitations I receive from brokers and insurance agencies for presentations meant to scare retirees into turning over their 401ks to the sponsor of the seminar. ... If you go to the free dinner seminar, and you're the one who b...
by Fallible
Wed Jul 16, 2014 9:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Another reason I am my own advisor
Replies: 15
Views: 3722

Re: "Stocks and shares," different things? "Peter Pan"

I was surprised to read this in, of all places, James M. Barrie's "Peter Pan." Mr. Darling used to boast to Wendy that her mother not only loved him but respected him. He was one of those deep ones who know about stocks and shares. Of course no one really knows, but he quite seemed to kno...
by Fallible
Wed Jul 16, 2014 9:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stocks and shares," different things? "Peter Pan"
Replies: 39
Views: 2792

Re: Another reason I am my own advisor

401(k) rollover boom enriches brokers at retirees’ expense http://seattletimes.com/html/businesstechnology/2024041313_rollovermiragexml.html "... She encouraged hundreds of departing AT&T employees to roll over their retirement money into the kind of risky high-commission investments that ...
by Fallible
Wed Jul 16, 2014 8:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Another reason I am my own advisor
Replies: 15
Views: 3722

Re: Continue subscribing to local newspaper?

[... Everything is always changing so who knows, maybe something will materialize in the future to fill the void left by the demise of the newspaper industry. 8-) There has been much written on the future of journalism, what new business model(s), etc. Here's some of the latest from Pew Research: h...
by Fallible
Sun Jul 13, 2014 10:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Continue subscribing to local newspaper?
Replies: 86
Views: 6127

Re: Alpo risk in retirement: Overblown?

So just say that and skip all the dog food nonsense. I agree it is nonsense. That's my point. But it's widely espoused. The problem of food insecurity and other poverty issues is very real and a serious problem for tens of millions of Americans. Look at the USDA report I linked earlier. Alpo is a c...
by Fallible
Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alpo risk in retirement: Overblown?
Replies: 41
Views: 2338

Re: Alpo risk in retirement: Overblown?

3 comments from a physician that treats primarily elderly patients (those with kidney disease): a) the biggest unknown expense for most of my patients are healthcare expenses. Simply put, statistical models (not that you would need them for this) indicate it is much more likely to develop chronic d...
by Fallible
Thu Jul 03, 2014 1:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alpo risk in retirement: Overblown?
Replies: 41
Views: 2338

Re: In retirement you expect you standard of living to?

Good question and poll. I expected (based on my basically frugal way of life and my apparent contentment with that) that my standard of living would be about the same in retirement, and I also based some financial decisions, such as a full or partial Roth conversion, on that thinking. It turns out I...
by Fallible
Thu Jul 03, 2014 1:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: In retirement you expect your standard of living to?
Replies: 55
Views: 4511

Re: "Invoice" sent when no order was put in - how to respond

I called an interior design firm about a window shade and curtains. They sent a representative to do an estimate, which she said she would send to me. I didn't finalize any plans for the job, I didn't put in an "order", and I certainly didn't sign anything. However, the costing sent to me...
by Fallible
Wed Jul 02, 2014 7:40 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "Invoice" sent when no order was put in - how to respond
Replies: 6
Views: 612

Re: The Truth Hurts: CNBC

Thinking vested interests, I wonder whether these advisers can be believed all the way, since the more dependent-client pictures they paint, the more they can seem to justify their fees for new clients - fees, btw, that should've been included in the article. Some of these clients appear almost comp...
by Fallible
Tue Jul 01, 2014 6:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Truth Hurts: CNBC
Replies: 17
Views: 3496

Re: What is simple enough to understand, and therefore inves

Here's a relevant Forbes article by Rick Ferri that may be helpful: "Your success as an index fund investor depends on a deep understanding of why you’re investing this way, how to manage your portfolio of index products, and staying the course no matter what. It takes the right philosophy, the...
by Fallible
Mon Jun 30, 2014 5:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is simple enough to understand, and therefore invest in
Replies: 27
Views: 1892

Re: do you lie about your finances to friends

I commute with someone who is always complaining about being behind the 8-ball financially... high consumer debt, underwater house, etc. the middle class is doomed!!! I make it seem like I am in the same boat as he, but I am not. I have gone through my ups and downs financially - and am by no means...
by Fallible
Mon Jun 30, 2014 3:21 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: do you lie about your finances to friends
Replies: 103
Views: 8888

Re: What is simple enough to understand, and therefore inves

The big mistakes in investing are failing to save, failing to diversify, and paying too much in fees. Avoid those and you'll probably be OK. The rest is stuff we argue about endlessly because the data is too noisy to provide clear answers. This is very much the message of Jack Bogle, while the BH p...
by Fallible
Mon Jun 30, 2014 12:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is simple enough to understand, and therefore invest in
Replies: 27
Views: 1892

Re: Who do you talk with about your financial goals?

As I was reading this thread, I wondered if some people "need" an advisor just to have someone they can talk to about this stuff. :shock: ... That is a good point about having a need to talk about this stuff. However, one must consider the basis for that need. If it is to brag, what is th...
by Fallible
Sun Jun 29, 2014 11:10 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Who do you talk with about your financial goals?
Replies: 158
Views: 9064

Re: Who do you talk with about your financial goals?

No one, except occasionally my cat. I just want to reassure him that he won't have to share his daily rations. I skip the details because he has no interest and trusts me to stay the course. For that effort, he is content and sleeps well. So do I. As a cat owner myself, I can fully appreciate your ...
by Fallible
Sun Jun 29, 2014 9:42 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Who do you talk with about your financial goals?
Replies: 158
Views: 9064

Re: What is simple enough to understand, and therefore inves

I have repeatedly read on these forums that one should not invest in something that one does not understand. But what is simple enough to understand? ... --vtMaps It’s probably unlikely that most small investors will understand an investment as thoroughly as the pros, but do they need to? With suff...
by Fallible
Sat Jun 28, 2014 10:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is simple enough to understand, and therefore invest in
Replies: 27
Views: 1892

Re: Our mentor: Jack Bogle

MN-Investor: Thank you for your link to this interesting, in-depth, discussion with our mentor, Jack Bogle. No one in the mutual fund industry has a greater combination of practical experience, knowledge, inventive genius, wisdom, perseverance, literary ability , kindness, modesty, and desire to he...
by Fallible
Fri Jun 27, 2014 6:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article: Conversation with John Bogle
Replies: 15
Views: 1886

Re: Article: Conversation with John Bogle

Liked this quote Indexing may be boring, but do me a favor: Never open one of your 401(k) statements from the day you start work to the day you retire, 40 or 50 years later. When you open that last statement, never having looked at it along the way, you are not going to believe how huge it is. You ...
by Fallible
Thu Jun 26, 2014 7:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article: Conversation with John Bogle
Replies: 15
Views: 1886

Re: How do you afford to travel?

I know we all save and invest, but I think the bulk of the population here also loves to experience new things and travel. There is obviously a monetary cost of vacationing, but there is also the process of getting off work, leaving priorities behind, ect. Personally, I hate to fly, and typically o...
by Fallible
Thu Jun 26, 2014 6:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How do you afford to travel?
Replies: 68
Views: 6182

Re: Contractor Messed up

- . She says she'd rather live with what she has and wait for it to come back into style than buy the stuff they're pushing now. In the meantime the investment money I would have spent keeps earning more. Love my wife. I finally lived long enough to see my original kitchen color come back in style....
by Fallible
Thu Jun 26, 2014 5:11 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Contractor Messed up
Replies: 45
Views: 2956

Re: Contractor Messed up

... 2) you can always ask for a discount, just don't get upset when you don't get one. They might hang one of your cabinets upside down. :) I got upset when the company balked at giving me a discount for wrongly installing flawed carpet. Their self-serving argument was that it would cost me nothing...
by Fallible
Wed Jun 25, 2014 8:45 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Contractor Messed up
Replies: 45
Views: 2956

Re: Contractor Messed up

Well I got home and looked at the cabinets. They brought over a maple cabinet for us to compare. We're definitely not keeping the oak cabinets. Would it be reasonable to ask for a discount for our delay? These cabinets took about 2-3 weeks to get in. Supposedly they will rush order the Maple ones, ...
by Fallible
Wed Jun 25, 2014 7:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Contractor Messed up
Replies: 45
Views: 2956

Re: Contractor Messed up

island wrote:What does your wife think? Must have been a reason maple was chosen in the first place. Same door and drawer profile you originally chose? I'd think oak would be cheaper so is 1K really a discount?
...


Agree it would be good to know your wife's reasons.
by Fallible
Wed Jun 25, 2014 5:53 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Contractor Messed up
Replies: 45
Views: 2956

Re: Article: Conversation with John Bogle

... There was something that struck me as a new point of view from Mr. Bogle when toward the end of the interview he was discussing bond versus stock allocation in the current low interest rate environment. I would not fault someone for saying “it’s not worth it to me to get that low return; I’m go...
by Fallible
Wed Jun 25, 2014 5:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article: Conversation with John Bogle
Replies: 15
Views: 1886

Re: Article: Conversation with John Bogle

Has the case for indexing ever been made more beautifully simple (the "circle") as Jack makes it here? (Answer below): "Let’s start off with the obvious. Imagine a circle representing 100% of the U.S. stock market, with each stock in there by its market weight. Then take out 30% of th...
by Fallible
Tue Jun 24, 2014 6:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article: Conversation with John Bogle
Replies: 15
Views: 1886

Re: "William Sharpe: An unsung hero of passive investing"

Another brilliant mind boils the complexities down to the simple truths: cost and diversification. His comment on why more people don't invest passively is, I think, what we see often on the forum: not understanding the arithmetic and a desire to beat the market. Explaining the arithmetic is proving...
by Fallible
Tue Jun 24, 2014 3:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "William Sharpe: An unsung hero of passive investing"
Replies: 9
Views: 1098

Re: Help devising winning roulette system

So you got lucky for awhile, then suddenly unlucky, and now you want to know whether we think you'll get lucky again, right?
by Fallible
Mon Jun 23, 2014 7:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help devising winning roulette system
Replies: 72
Views: 3089

Re: Figuring out how much risk you need to take

It's hard for a young person to plan for a retirement that's 40 years away. There are so many unknowns that it's hard to be sure if you are on the right track. I f you don't know whether or not you are on the right track, then it's easy to allow behavioral impulses to second guess your investment d...
by Fallible
Mon Jun 23, 2014 2:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Figuring out how much risk you need to take
Replies: 4
Views: 562

Re: Leasing mineral rights for oil exploration

You obviously have experience in this so I'd like to know if you're familiar with the National Association of Royalty Owners and/or whether you or anyone you know has joined and how helpful they are with these negotiations. Thanks. No, I didn't join, as I am one of five siblings and cousins who own...
by Fallible
Mon Jun 23, 2014 11:32 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Leasing mineral rights for oil exploration
Replies: 14
Views: 1009

Re: Leasing mineral rights for oil exploration

I had a similar offer last year. Similar in terms of coming out of the blue, but the amounts were much lower. If I recall, I was offered only $5 per acre and 12.5% royalties. It was in an area that was very speculative, and it sounds like yours might be a bit more proven. In any event, I would sugg...
by Fallible
Sun Jun 22, 2014 10:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Leasing mineral rights for oil exploration
Replies: 14
Views: 1009
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