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Re: Ulysses Contract

... Fallible wrote: Simply make sure the IPS is based on an asset allocation properly reflecting risk tolerance and you have a contract that has worked for many. In other words, keep it simple. Agreed, this does work for some, especially experienced investors. Unfortunately, the record is clear tha...
by Fallible
Thu Mar 05, 2015 2:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ulysses Contract
Replies: 10
Views: 978

Re: Ulysses Contract

A Ulysses pact or Ulysses contract is a freely made decision that is designed and intended to bind oneself to a commitment in the future. ... The question to the forum is what kind of Ulysses contract could be used to prevent an investor from abandoning his/her IPS and selling in a market drawdown?...
by Fallible
Wed Mar 04, 2015 9:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ulysses Contract
Replies: 10
Views: 978

Re: "Americans Aren't Saving Enough for Retirement"

Agree. Years ago I went with my mother to speak to an advisor that some of her work mates were using after retirement. His proposal was for basically one fund, similar to Wellington or Wellesly, class C shares with an ER of ~ 1.65%. One of the clients told my mom that this gentleman was great becau...
by Fallible
Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Americans Aren't Saving Enough for Retirement"
Replies: 41
Views: 4482

Re: The Blind Forecaster

From Wall Street's point of view, it probably would be irrelevant whether forecasting is science as long as the numbers and equations dazzle and make money. Wall Street doesn't even have to predict human behavior; it just has to take advantage of its downside, irrationality, and it does that notori...
by Fallible
Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Blind Forecaster
Replies: 28
Views: 2193

Re: WHY YOU OWE YOUR FREEDOM TO JACK BOGLE

"Jack Bogle’s legacy goes far beyond giving investors a fair shake in keeping their share of the profits of capitalism rather than feeding the financial-services industry. This legacy has given me and millions of others the freedom to pursue whatever gives our lives meaning. " Thank you Al...
by Fallible
Tue Mar 03, 2015 1:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WHY YOU OWE YOUR FREEDOM TO JACK BOGLE
Replies: 43
Views: 3457

Re: The Blind Forecaster

From Wall Street's point of view, it probably would be irrelevant whether forecasting is science as long as the numbers and equations dazzle and make money. Wall Street doesn't even have to predict human behavior; it just has to take advantage of its downside, irrationality, and it does that notorio...
by Fallible
Tue Mar 03, 2015 1:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Blind Forecaster
Replies: 28
Views: 2193

Re: The Blind Forecaster

John C. Bogle, The Clash of the Cultures: Investment vs. Speculation , 2012: "But investing is not a science." http://s24.postimg.org/fteco3h0l/DSC05835_Bogle_Investing_is_not_a_science_circle.jpg I know you've cited this before from Jack, but it can't be cited enough. Too many investors ...
by Fallible
Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Blind Forecaster
Replies: 28
Views: 2193

Re: Taylor Larimore Honored

Congratulations Taylor! Yet one more deserved honor for a member of "The greatest generation."

Thanks Mel for posting.
by Fallible
Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taylor Larimore Honored
Replies: 59
Views: 4561

Re: The Blind Forecaster

Don't get me wrong. He is correct. But, it's not what most want to understand. They'd rather look for the lost quarter under the street light. I have posted such "finance is not physics" posts in the past. They are, usually, simply ignored. L. Housel's quote: "But finance isn't like ...
by Fallible
Mon Mar 02, 2015 8:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Blind Forecaster
Replies: 28
Views: 2193

Re: Retiree Poll: Satisfaction with retirement

Very satisfied so far, very grateful. If one knows what to do with Freedom (a relative freedom, of course), how could one not be very satisfied?
by Fallible
Mon Mar 02, 2015 6:19 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retiree Poll: Satisfaction with retirement
Replies: 53
Views: 3743

Re: The Blind Forecaster

I enjoyed his description of the "blind" forecaster, but it was the last couple graphs that were most interesting - that financial forecasting can't work because it is "driven by irrational, uninformed, emotional, vengeful, gullible, and hormonal human brains." He continues (bold...
by Fallible
Mon Mar 02, 2015 6:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Blind Forecaster
Replies: 28
Views: 2193

Re: Market Cycle Psychology

Optimism, but more a cautious optimism. Looking at the chart, I realize for the first time that I've never felt excitement, thrill, or euphoria about the market, nor depression, despondency, or denial (at least denial I'm aware of, denial being what it is). I felt anxiety, fear, and panic in '08, bu...
by Fallible
Sun Mar 01, 2015 4:03 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Market Cycle Psychology
Replies: 9
Views: 334

Re: Has anyone ever voluntarily downsized their job?

If stress from work has gotten to the ominous point of health problems, you really have no choice but to downsize or take whatever steps necessary to regain your health. I would do it as soon as possible, top priority, and while the health effects are more likely to be reversible.
by Fallible
Sun Mar 01, 2015 1:10 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Has anyone ever voluntarily downsized their job?
Replies: 32
Views: 2751

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

To be clear, Robert Redford is a very good actor. My reference to him in Captain America was for the visual impact. I still remember him from The Natural . Perhaps it's because I love baseball and remember the movie very well. Okay, this is a book, not a movie, but since you love baseball you might...
by Fallible
Sun Mar 01, 2015 12:13 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 573
Views: 70858

Re: Not "Staying the Course"

"Investment situations" are an extension (one of many) of your life situation. And life doesn't "stay the course," however long you have lived. "Between the idea And the reality Between the motion And the act Falls the Shadow" (T. S. Eliot, "The Hollow Men") ...
by Fallible
Sat Feb 28, 2015 6:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Not "Staying the Course"
Replies: 40
Views: 4689

Re: Thought for the Day: Invest Logically

I can picture him watching CNBC and saying to himself: "Fascinating!" He might be more heavily equity-weighted, actually, for a very logical reason (of course!): IIRC Vulcans have longer life spans and therefore longer time horizons. Yes, I also can see him watching CNBC in fascination, b...
by Fallible
Sat Feb 28, 2015 6:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thought for the Day: Invest Logically
Replies: 18
Views: 1904

Re: "2015 Annual Letter by Scott Burns and Kennon Grose"

Diversify, diversify, diversify. It's a wonderful piece and quotable throughout. Also liked this: "While others are losing round after round looking for a big win with a straight, a flush, or four-of-a-kind, diversification allows us to gain round after round without ever ”winning“ a hand. It h...
by Fallible
Sat Feb 28, 2015 6:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "2015 Annual Letter by Scott Burns and Kennon Grose"
Replies: 8
Views: 1152

Re: This Morning's Dilbert - Investment Help

This stuff is brilliant. It's easy to read, it's got the punch, and great visuals. If you put a short essay with each cartoon to explain the underlying issues, it would make a very effective teaching tool. It could potentially reach a wide audience, as many people won't read investing books because...
by Fallible
Sat Feb 28, 2015 1:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This Morning's Dilbert - Investment Help
Replies: 21
Views: 4082

Re: Not "Staying the Course"

Was wondering if there are investment situations where you have not or would not stay the course? It depends here what you mean by investment situations. If you mean bailing out in a bear market, then that's failing to stay the course. But if you mean, say, changing an AA to reflect age or a major ...
by Fallible
Fri Feb 27, 2015 7:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Not "Staying the Course"
Replies: 40
Views: 4689

Re: Convincing older relative to open online savings account

My mother, now 90, has for several years been uncomfortable with new or complex financial arrangements. While she can send email and order things from Amazon, anything else on the computer is really beyond her capabilities. Thus, I have refrained from suggesting online bank accounts or CD's that wo...
by Fallible
Thu Feb 26, 2015 12:49 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Convincing older relative to open online savings account
Replies: 34
Views: 1471

Re: Is it actually impossible to time market crashes?

Alan Greenspan has famously called the dot-com bubble crash in December 1996. The most useful outcome of his warning was that the expression "irrational exuberance" has entered the lexicon of people who otherwise limit themselves to two-syllable words. Victoria And it is a perfect example...
by Fallible
Thu Feb 26, 2015 12:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it actually impossible to time market crashes?
Replies: 56
Views: 3019

Re: Is it actually impossible to time market crashes?

I don't think one needs to time things perfectly. Getting it half right is not failure. For instance, loading up on equities in March 2009 by rebalancing is not failure. Nor is loading up in May 2009. But if one was asked in 2003 whether there would be Great Recession due subprime loans later in th...
by Fallible
Wed Feb 25, 2015 4:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it actually impossible to time market crashes?
Replies: 56
Views: 3019

Re: Help! Ive been put on a performance improvement plan!

You could use the improvement plan as incentive to pull together thoughts of your past year as objectively as possible (no mention of specific instances or employees or management as it's beyond that now). Write down what you did wrong, what you did right, what you liked and were good at, what you d...
by Fallible
Wed Feb 25, 2015 1:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help! Ive been put on a performance improvement plan!
Replies: 66
Views: 8439

Re: Value investing doesn't even beat the S&P 500

... Fallible, I think we are saying the same thing, but I would like to clarify it with an example: - If one has a weakness for ice cream and is not aware of this weakness, he will continue buying and consuming prodigious amounts of ice cream. - If one has a weakness for ice cream, is aware of this...
by Fallible
Wed Feb 25, 2015 1:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value investing doesn't even beat the S&P 500
Replies: 45
Views: 4327

Re: Value investing doesn't even beat the S&P 500

The interesting question is whether we are behaviorally capable of staying the course through simple will power. The willpower research has shown that a concept of people having or not having will power is a wrong model. Willpower is a finite resource that is depleted with use. Not only willpower i...
by Fallible
Tue Feb 24, 2015 8:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value investing doesn't even beat the S&P 500
Replies: 45
Views: 4327

Re: Value investing doesn't even beat the S&P 500

The interesting question is whether we are behaviorally capable of staying the course through simple will power. The willpower research has shown that a concept of people having or not having will power is a wrong model. Willpower is a finite resource that is depleted with use. Not only willpower i...
by Fallible
Tue Feb 24, 2015 6:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value investing doesn't even beat the S&P 500
Replies: 45
Views: 4327

Re: Do you watch commercials?

The reason I've tried to find so hard to find Tversky's comment is because if I've remembered it correctly, it could also apply to how some financial advisers have learned to turn BE into behavioral finance for their own benefit and not always their clients. In other words, what you have written ab...
by Fallible
Tue Feb 24, 2015 12:36 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you watch commercials?
Replies: 42
Views: 1850

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

retiredbuthappy wrote:The Ladykillers with Alec Guinness on TCM - clever pot twists, fine casting!, color even, laughed and laughed.
RbH


Agree, beautifully and hilariously underplayed by some of the best (Guinness, Sellers, etc.). The characters of Guinness and Katie Johnson are a great comic contrast. Fun.
by Fallible
Tue Feb 24, 2015 12:14 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 573
Views: 70858

Re: Do you watch commercials?

... Everyone is influenced by commercials. However, most people don't realize it or won't admit it. Victoria No doubt true and it may just be a matter of how consciously people are affected and in what way. In other words, much of the influence may be subconsciously - you don't realize it though it...
by Fallible
Mon Feb 23, 2015 10:33 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you watch commercials?
Replies: 42
Views: 1850

Re: Do you watch commercials?

I try reasonably hard to avoid them. By the way, it's not a new thing. It always amazes me when people wax nostalgic over "Mickey Mouse Club." That show ran for a half an hour and contained not quite but almost 15 minutes of commercial breaks. I regret to say that commercials influence me...
by Fallible
Mon Feb 23, 2015 4:46 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you watch commercials?
Replies: 42
Views: 1850

Re: Asset Allocation me+spouse w/ different risk tolerance

I had her do the calculator at Vanguard (https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/tools/recommendation) and it came up with a recommendation of 60/40 Stocks/Bonds. We talked it over a little and I explained why I was at 80/20 and that we had been at a little over 90/10 for the past 6 years. I also to...
by Fallible
Mon Feb 23, 2015 12:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation me+spouse w/ different risk tolerance
Replies: 19
Views: 1329

Re: Convincing a novice index funds are superior

Good points being made on not trying to "convince" a novice. I know, however, when I advise after being asked, I'll inevitably hope that I'll be convincing. As I posted earlier, I would emphasize low costs and simplicity of indexing, describe briefly what I do to achieve those, and point n...
by Fallible
Mon Feb 23, 2015 12:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Convincing a novice index funds are superior
Replies: 26
Views: 2371

Re: Convincing a novice index funds are superior

... So say I'm a novice, somewhat skittish investor, looking to invest $1,000 / month with a long term horizon but don't know what to do. You have 10-20 minutes of my time. I'm not good with math and I don't have time to read books on investing. What would you recommend? ... I would advise you, the...
by Fallible
Sun Feb 22, 2015 8:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Convincing a novice index funds are superior
Replies: 26
Views: 2371

Re: Schwab's Risk Tolerance Advice

There was a small additional box that said, Need help with your allocations? feel free to call Schwab at 800 xxx xxxx or email xxxx@xxxxx. But otherwise, yes, this is all it says. Then it may have been used to attract callers to that number where investors could get help with their AA, including de...
by Fallible
Sun Feb 22, 2015 7:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab's Risk Tolerance Advice
Replies: 6
Views: 524

Re: Schwab's Risk Tolerance Advice

So I was reading my group's Schwab 401(k) plan suggested allocations summary and came across their advice on determining your risk tolerance. "How do you know your risk tolerance? If you always drive at or below the speed limit, you are CONSERVATIVE. If you like driving 80 miles per hour, you ...
by Fallible
Sun Feb 22, 2015 6:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab's Risk Tolerance Advice
Replies: 6
Views: 524

Re: How much has Bogleheads contributed to your net worth?

6miths wrote:It is hard to say. I think I was a Boglehead before I knew what a Boglehead was but it is certainly wonderful to have the community.


Agree, word for word. :happy
by Fallible
Sun Feb 22, 2015 12:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much has Bogleheads contributed to your net worth?
Replies: 58
Views: 4128

Re: Asset Allocation me+spouse w/ different risk tolerance

My wife and I both have our Roth IRA's at Vanguard. We've been in 100% VTSAX for the past 6 years and I just read the Bogleheads guide to investing and am serious about doing a proper asset allocation now (that said, not a bad 6 years to do 100% Domestic Stocks like idiots; thankfully it ended up h...
by Fallible
Sat Feb 21, 2015 9:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation me+spouse w/ different risk tolerance
Replies: 19
Views: 1329

Re: On line product reviews vs Consumers Reports

Not sure what you mean by online reviews since CR is online. What they mean is specific recent reviews of the product, down to the model #. The CR online reviews are "online" insofar as they are in the internet, but they are often outdated or only reference certain few models. I do subscr...
by Fallible
Sat Feb 21, 2015 8:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: On line product reviews vs Consumers Reports
Replies: 37
Views: 2607

Re: On line product reviews vs Consumers Reports

I read CR regularly at the library and also our local Consumers' Checkbook magazine and feel that's all I need. If there's an alternative to CR, I'd try it out, but I know of none.
by Fallible
Sat Feb 21, 2015 8:47 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: On line product reviews vs Consumers Reports
Replies: 37
Views: 2607

Re: On line product reviews vs Consumers Reports

I have been a longtime subscriber to Consumers Reports and have found it's recommendations to be generally good. But the last couple of years I find I use online recommendations more than Consumers. I tend to use recommendations on Amazon for most things but even Sears and other retailers have what...
by Fallible
Sat Feb 21, 2015 5:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: On line product reviews vs Consumers Reports
Replies: 37
Views: 2607

Re: Scott Burns on Factor investing

pkcrafter wrote:
For the moment just two things are clear. First, that simple is better most of the time. Second, that the odds are against complexity.

Someone should tell Taylor Larimore about this. Oh, wait a minute--He's light years ahead of the researchers on this one.

Paul


+1
by Fallible
Sat Feb 21, 2015 5:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Scott Burns on Factor investing
Replies: 5
Views: 933

Re: Scott Burns on Factor investing

http://assetbuilder.com/scott_burns/the_new_skepticism Scott Burns - skepticism on factor investing Really almost more about healthy skepticism than just factor investing and not just Burns's skepticism but that of other researchers questioning the data. And Burns ends on the Boglehead note of simp...
by Fallible
Sat Feb 21, 2015 2:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Scott Burns on Factor investing
Replies: 5
Views: 933

Re: End of Life for a Friend of Mine....a couple weeks ago..

No person should have to consider suicide - assisted or otherwise - because they so fear pain and helplessness during their final days. You would think it should be so simple no? The patient does not want to suffer. The family does not want their loved one to suffer. The physicians don't want their...
by Fallible
Fri Feb 20, 2015 10:07 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: End of Life for a Friend of Mine....a couple weeks ago....
Replies: 41
Views: 4410

Re: electric toothbrush

I guess I must be an outlier, but I still brush the old fashion way. I decided to try timing myself and brushing two minutes. It turns out that is a lot longer than I had been brushing. So I am going to do that for awhile and see what the hygienist says at my appointment in a few weeks. Oh yeah, th...
by Fallible
Fri Feb 20, 2015 7:13 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: electric toothbrush
Replies: 38
Views: 2206

Re: Ignore the experts but can you invest by consensus?

If you read thousands of posts on BH, you will find that we more or less have a consensus on some things; 1) low expenses :D 2) equity index funds 3) asset allocation involving significant amounts of both equities and bonds 4) an appreciation for Vanguard, Jack Bogle, and several of the leading pos...
by Fallible
Fri Feb 20, 2015 2:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ignore the experts but can you invest by consensus?
Replies: 15
Views: 1022

Re: electric toothbrush

My dentist was pushing Sonicare. It turns out they make money from pushing the product. It is part of Sonicare's marketing strategy. It is interesting that non-Sonicare electric toothbrushes are rated higher, but are not recommended so much by dentists. My hygienist always asks, "Wow, do you u...
by Fallible
Fri Feb 20, 2015 1:43 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: electric toothbrush
Replies: 38
Views: 2206

Re: Should older workers omit graduation dates on resume?

Wouldn't omitting the years actually draw more attention, though, just like how I immediately noticed and thought, "he doesn't want to show his age"? I would say yes, but that alone doesn't necessarily mean he was wrong to omit. It depends on how the hiring manager(s) reacts and that's go...
by Fallible
Fri Feb 20, 2015 1:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should older workers omit graduation dates on resume?
Replies: 34
Views: 3207

Re: Ignore the experts but can you invest by consensus?

You'll see many threads here where we all say not to listen to experts, but we all will freely tell people "the forum consensus is..." That would imply that "group think" does better than individual experts. I want to test whether that is true by trying to come up with "for...
by Fallible
Fri Feb 20, 2015 1:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ignore the experts but can you invest by consensus?
Replies: 15
Views: 1022

Re: Two Hedge Fund Managers Walk into a Bar...

Enjoy this satirical column from Morgan Housel: ... Laughed all the way through and thanks for the link. Loved this exchange especially (my takeaway is that from now on when I blow up something I can just say I'm managing risk ): "I started using this line on my wife," Paul jokes. "H...
by Fallible
Fri Feb 20, 2015 10:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Two Hedge Fund Managers Walk into a Bar...
Replies: 10
Views: 1737

Re: Time to stop driving for 85 yo MIL

At 85 years of age I took the keys from my Mother so she would not harm herself or others. Smart decision :happy And then move the car in case she has access to another set of keys. It is for her own protection. But a reminder, as I and others have mentioned here, that if you take away the keys, do...
by Fallible
Thu Feb 19, 2015 8:56 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Time to stop driving for 85 yo MIL
Replies: 89
Views: 5762
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