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Re: So you think you're a Risk-taker?

A timely article on risk tolerance by Zweig that serves as a kind of warning to investors that the recent market drop was not deep enough or long enough to truly test their tolerance (as Nisiprius also emphasizes in his post here). Especially interesting, IMO, was the study Zweig linked to in "...
by Fallible
Sat Oct 25, 2014 8:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So you think you're a Risk-taker?
Replies: 12
Views: 1310

Re: Yes, 100% of economists were dead wrong about yields

... Now that's comedy! :D PJW But borrowed comedy. Not sure who coined it first - maybe you? If I had a nickle for every good joke I've coined I'd be five cents in debt. If I had one for every good joke I've stolen I'd be in prison. PJW We're headed OT way, so I'll just say you're being modest abou...
by Fallible
Fri Oct 24, 2014 4:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% of [surveyed] economists were dead wrong about yields
Replies: 33
Views: 3628

Re: "Jack Bogle on Warren Buffett, Bill Gross and How to Inv

Hot off the press: "Warren Buffett has become Vanguard's best salesman, Bogle said. Buffett, of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) , (BRK.B) recently announced that his wife will inherit money to be allocated 90% to the Vanguard 500 Index Fund (VFINX) (VFIAX) (VOO). After the announcement, searches on...
by Fallible
Fri Oct 24, 2014 3:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Jack Bogle on Warren Buffett, Bill Gross and How to Invest"
Replies: 14
Views: 1888

Re: Yes, 100% of economists were dead wrong about yields

... Had the headline writer included the word "surveyed" - and I think he/she should have - so that the headline read: "Yes, 100% of economists surveyed were dead wrong about yields," I'd guess the number of clicks would be the same. I'd prefer to read an article titled "Ye...
by Fallible
Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% of [surveyed] economists were dead wrong about yields
Replies: 33
Views: 3628

Re: The 1 Thing Successful Investors Never Do

Came across this article on the Motley Fool which I thought was good http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/10/22/the-1-thing-successful-investors-never-do.aspx Really? From the article: "...never give up... Whether your strategy is index investing or a more active form of investing, those...
by Fallible
Thu Oct 23, 2014 6:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 1 Thing Successful Investors Never Do
Replies: 11
Views: 3779

Re: Yes, 100% of economists were dead wrong about yields

I suppose Well, 67 economists predicted the wrong direction, without counting magnitude, for bond yields over six months wouldn't garner nearly as many clicks, and might not even have shown up here, so good job, headline writer * ! PJW ... Had the headline writer included the word "surveyed&qu...
by Fallible
Thu Oct 23, 2014 5:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% of [surveyed] economists were dead wrong about yields
Replies: 33
Views: 3628

Re: "How to Win the Loser's Game -- Part 9"

These have been great to watch, the industry legends all investors need to hear. Looking forward to the next part and thanks Taylor.
by Fallible
Wed Oct 22, 2014 3:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How to Win the Loser's Game -- Part 9"
Replies: 6
Views: 1492

Re: "You're invited to...." (nonsense talk and dinner)

I work for one of these places. DO NOT GO. You'll be given a free dinner, sure, but after that the annoyance begins. You'll be asked to set up an appointment with the speaker to learn more about the material. Perhaps they'll call you several times, send you email, or more letters to get you to come...
by Fallible
Wed Oct 22, 2014 2:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "You're invited to...." (nonsense talk and dinner)
Replies: 68
Views: 4062

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Curiosity got the better of me - plus I found a free Kindle download :) - and I re-read some of it and it was deja vu all over again - it's good but I couldn't finish it. I agree about sacrificing wit while unloading feelings and think this may explain the difficulty in finding a place on the "...
by Fallible
Tue Oct 21, 2014 9:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 126
Views: 8783

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

...Do you think they are being intentionally insulting by referring to Woodrow Wilson as "Dr. Wilson" rather than "President Wilson?" Or do they think "Dr." trumps "President" as an honorific? Unless this is a trick question (re Mencken's The American Credo )...
by Fallible
Tue Oct 21, 2014 8:56 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 126
Views: 8783

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

... Finished the preface to The American Credo , by H. L. Mencken and George Jean Nathan, online at http://www.gutenberg.org/files/23858/23858-h/23858-h.htm , and have read about 200 of the articles of the "Credo" itself. I am completely baffled as to what to make of it. I just can't tell...
by Fallible
Tue Oct 21, 2014 6:14 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 126
Views: 8783

Re: 12 Worst financal Advisors

I'm surprised anyone uses an individual financial adviser after Bernie Madoff.... In one of the early and best books on Madoff, The Wizard of Lies by Diana Henriques, she writes of many more Ponzi schemes likely underway and not yet having been discovered, not to mention potential Ponzi's that will...
by Fallible
Tue Oct 21, 2014 3:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 12 Worst financal Advisors
Replies: 4
Views: 1435

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

... Finished the preface to The American Credo , by H. L. Mencken and George Jean Nathan, online at http://www.gutenberg.org/files/23858/23858-h/23858-h.htm , and have read about 200 of the articles of the "Credo" itself. I am completely baffled as to what to make of it. I just can't tell...
by Fallible
Tue Oct 21, 2014 2:46 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 126
Views: 8783

Re: Owning property jointly with family member

If a verbal agreement doesn't work , A verbal agreement will most likely never work. Are you ok with the ownership being transferred to your nephew? You quoted only the first few words of my post. Here is all of it: "If a verbal agreement doesn't work, you could have an attorney work up a cont...
by Fallible
Mon Oct 20, 2014 12:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Owning property jointly with family member
Replies: 15
Views: 1236

Re: DOW Watchers Stomach Syndrome

Just noise. Agreed but really LOUD noise. I never thought of market "noise" as having categories, but I suppose there could be just noise, soft noise, regular noise, the usual noise, louder noise, loud noise, blaring, thundering, ear-splitting and so on. Then there's the question: at whic...
by Fallible
Mon Oct 20, 2014 11:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DOW Watchers Stomach Syndrome
Replies: 25
Views: 2088

Re: Is it possible to have a favorite movie

Like others here, I didn't think it was possible to have a favorite, but if there was one, it would have to be a Chaplin film, one combining humor and pathos which I love best and he did best; a silent film where I think those qualities are best expressed and appreciated; probably a feature length f...
by Fallible
Sat Oct 18, 2014 8:45 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is it possible to have a favorite movie
Replies: 82
Views: 3129

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

I am reading So Good They Can't Ignore You: Why Skills Trump Passion in the Quest for Work You Love by Cal Newport. The book starts out by dispelling the Passion Hypothesis , i.e., a common advice to follow one's passion in selecting career. Newport's alternative to starting with a passion and then...
by Fallible
Sat Oct 18, 2014 4:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 126
Views: 8783

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Just started The Innovators: How a Group of Hackers, Geniuses, and Geeks Created the Digital Revolution," by Walter Isaacson and it's excellent, as is just about everything he's done (bios of Einstein and Steve Jobs, etc.). Some recent and recommended reads: __ How We Learn by Benedict Carey (e...
by Fallible
Sat Oct 18, 2014 2:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 126
Views: 8783

Re: "The best response to market volatility"

Thanks, Taylor. You've gleaned key parts of the article pertaining to risk tolerance - the need to know how much market volatility we can handle before it happens. Or, as Malkiel also said, "The combination of stocks and bonds in your portfolio has to be geared to your psychological makeup.&quo...
by Fallible
Fri Oct 17, 2014 7:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The best response to market volatility"
Replies: 27
Views: 3343

Re: Owning property jointly with family member

If a verbal agreement doesn't work , A verbal agreement will most likely never work. Are you ok with the ownership being transferred to your nephew? You quoted only the first few words of my post. Here is all of it: "If a verbal agreement doesn't work, you could have an attorney work up a cont...
by Fallible
Thu Oct 16, 2014 6:44 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Owning property jointly with family member
Replies: 15
Views: 1236

Re: Relatively new here. What did you do in 2008/09

But I was active on the forum in 2007-2009, so I saw many other posters who discovered that they did not know their risk tolerance when the stock market lost more than half its value. Therefore, I do not recommend that anyone who hasn't already experienced a bear market hold more than 80% stock. Ho...
by Fallible
Thu Oct 16, 2014 1:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Relatively new here. What did you do in 2008/09
Replies: 106
Views: 6885

Re: Relatively new here. What did you do in 2008/09

I had just started working and kept putting a higher percentage into my retirement fund. It was weird because I remember my boss asking if I wanted to decrease my contribution percentage since I started making more in salary. Obviously, I told him no. I have noticed while the "stay the course,...
by Fallible
Thu Oct 16, 2014 1:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Relatively new here. What did you do in 2008/09
Replies: 106
Views: 6885

Re: Relatively new here. What did you do in 2008/09

What does "stay the course" mean?... I had wondered this in an earlier post here after noticing that so many posters considered staying the course to mean either sticking with an original allocation or simply staying in the market but changing the allocation. To me, it is maintaining the ...
by Fallible
Thu Oct 16, 2014 1:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Relatively new here. What did you do in 2008/09
Replies: 106
Views: 6885

Re: Relatively new here. What did you do in 2008/09

I knew my risk tolerance from previous experience. In 2000, my portfolio was 80% stock. As I lost about a quarter of my portfolio, I didn't have any problem sticking with that allocation. I went to 85% stock in 2002, 90% in 2004, and as I overweighted risky stocks (small-cap, value, and emerging ma...
by Fallible
Wed Oct 15, 2014 10:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Relatively new here. What did you do in 2008/09
Replies: 106
Views: 6885

Re: Relatively new here. What did you do in 2008/09

The more I read here, the more it seems there are two definitions of "stay the course": -Stick to one's IPS and maintain an asset allocation; -simply stay in the market, but change the AA at will (for better or worse). It reminded me of a thread from '09 on the subject: http://www.boglehea...
by Fallible
Wed Oct 15, 2014 7:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Relatively new here. What did you do in 2008/09
Replies: 106
Views: 6885

Re: Owning property jointly with family member

If a verbal agreement doesn't work, you could have an attorney work up a contract you would all agree to and sign. If your father had an estate attorney, he or she could write it up. I don't know if there is a standard form. We have attorneys on the forum so they may come forth to advise. Also, here...
by Fallible
Wed Oct 15, 2014 6:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Owning property jointly with family member
Replies: 15
Views: 1236

Re: Thoughts on getting out [of job]

I would quit and roll the dice that your finances will work out. Which is a better gamble than rolling the dice with your health, which you are doing right now. The job could quite literally kill you. I don't believe the OP would be rolling the dice with his finances if he gets out now, but it woul...
by Fallible
Wed Oct 15, 2014 11:43 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thoughts on getting out [of job]
Replies: 37
Views: 4977

Re: Relatively new here. What did you do in 2008/09

I was still with a financial adviser who I never really talked to. I just kept putting money each month into a mutual fund. I saw all the big drops on the Nightly News when I would catch it, but honestly really didn't understand how it impacted my money and didn't care. (because I didn't get it yet...
by Fallible
Tue Oct 14, 2014 10:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Relatively new here. What did you do in 2008/09
Replies: 106
Views: 6885

Re: Relatively new here. What did you do in 2008/09

BigFoot48 wrote:
Fallible wrote:Which means you discovered a new risk tolerance and went with it, a wise move.

Exactly right. It was a 28% drop I had from top to bottom over 15 months, and I got a clear message from that of what my risk tolerance should be going forward.

:beer
by Fallible
Tue Oct 14, 2014 10:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Relatively new here. What did you do in 2008/09
Replies: 106
Views: 6885

Re: Siren song of increased stock allocation

With the market pullback I am getting the very unBogleheaed idea of moving all the money in my Total Bond fund into my Wellington fund. Anyone else hearing the siren song of increased stock allocation? At the moment, I am thinking of stocks and bonds as more like Scylla and Charybdis. In any case, ...
by Fallible
Tue Oct 14, 2014 9:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Siren song of increased stock allocation
Replies: 38
Views: 2900

Re: Relatively new here. What did you do in 2008/09

The answers here are very interesting. Most remind me of the old Mike Tyson quote: "Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth." +1 Has anyone tried to make a count of what percentage in the thread followed their personal plan of what to do? i.e., how many of us Bogleheads s...
by Fallible
Tue Oct 14, 2014 8:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Relatively new here. What did you do in 2008/09
Replies: 106
Views: 6885

Re: Relatively new here. What did you do in 2008/09

why didnt you go back to 60-40? Thats how you would have made ton of money after recovery. Preferred sleeping well in my retirement and didn't really need a ton of money - had enough. I have decided to continue at about 40% stocks for many more years, and likely will never go below 30%. Which means...
by Fallible
Tue Oct 14, 2014 8:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Relatively new here. What did you do in 2008/09
Replies: 106
Views: 6885

Re: Ebola preparation

So far, I'm just trying to keep up with latest developments and keep it all in perspective. This article by the excellent journalist James Surowiecki helps with the latter:
http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk ... st-popular
by Fallible
Tue Oct 14, 2014 3:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ebola preparation
Replies: 55
Views: 2239

Re: the importance of asset allocation

Besides "Getting Started" on the wiki, read Rick Ferri's book, 2nd edition, All About Asset Allocation, especially the foreword by Bill Bernstein (more "cat cuisine"), and Rick's Introduction, which begins: "Is asset allocation dead?"
by Fallible
Tue Oct 14, 2014 3:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: the importance of asset allocation
Replies: 16
Views: 1484

Re: Relatively new here. What did you do in 2008/09

Hello, I've been around for about a year on this forum. I am wondering what the tone was in 2008! Was it hold hold hold or was it like crap, this isn't working! In 2008, I was retired, had been investing in the market for some 20 years and pretty much stayed the course through the '87 crash, LTCM i...
by Fallible
Tue Oct 14, 2014 2:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Relatively new here. What did you do in 2008/09
Replies: 106
Views: 6885

Re: What Do You Keep In Your Bank Safe Deposit Box?

I'm just curios as to what people keep in their Bank Safe Deposit Boxes. I keep my birth certificate, passport, additional copies of my driver's license and state ID & SS card. I keep a digital back up of of all of my scanned documents on an encrypted external hard drive. I also keep family jew...
by Fallible
Mon Oct 13, 2014 1:28 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What Do You Keep In Your Bank Safe Deposit Box?
Replies: 39
Views: 2571

Re: When people put all their eggs in the wrong basket

That's a remarkable and tragic thread. ... At some point I'd like to read the early pages of that epic thread to understand what seduced investors to put so much into a single stock. It is a most tragic thread and I'm not even halfway through. Responding to your comment on why so much into a single...
by Fallible
Mon Oct 13, 2014 1:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When people put all their eggs in the wrong basket
Replies: 228
Views: 23214

Re: Thoughts on getting out

All, I'd appreciate hearing from you on the following. I am unsure if I'm looking for you to reinforce my plan of shoot holes in it. Both are welcome. At 59, I absolutely hate my job. I am fraught with anxiety and dread ( most of this is in my own mind but psychological counseling has had only mini...
by Fallible
Sun Oct 12, 2014 4:49 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thoughts on getting out [of job]
Replies: 37
Views: 4977

Re: Investing Advice [NYT article on "buying" investment adv

Thanks for the article. It shows the confusion out there on who is a fiduciary and when and even whether those calling themselves fiduciaries really are in the correct and fullest sense of the word. And yet once again we read the words, "did not fully understand" an investment, which ultim...
by Fallible
Sun Oct 12, 2014 2:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing Advice [NYT article on "buying" investment advice]
Replies: 9
Views: 966

Re: The Rise and Fall of Performance Investing

Thanks for posting more Ellis wisdom. I haven't finished reading it, but liked his simple comment on "Fees" - "The pricing of investment management services has had an interesting history and a single direction— up." OP, I might disagree a bit with your comment that "Jack Bo...
by Fallible
Sun Oct 12, 2014 2:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Rise and Fall of Performance Investing
Replies: 5
Views: 530

Re: Read too many books... help untangle

So I have been a knee deep in books over the past month (and juxtaposing with what I read here) or so trying to plan a portfolio for post business exit and it seems I have thoroughly confused myself. It seems there is a lot of contradiction out there, but maybe I just see it as contradiction.... So...
by Fallible
Sun Oct 05, 2014 11:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Read too many books... help untangle
Replies: 48
Views: 3965

Re: Logic- knowledge wanted

I highly recommend "Predictably Irrational" by Dan Ariely, "Nudge" by Richard Thaler, and "Influence" by Robert Cialdini. None of them are books about logic per se, but they do provide amazing insights into why and how people reason poorly. Also they're just very enter...
by Fallible
Sun Oct 05, 2014 11:15 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Logic- knowledge wanted
Replies: 15
Views: 1225

Re: Logic- knowledge wanted

Coursera, which is very good, offers logic courses. Here's a start and there are many more: https://www.coursera.org/course/intrologic

Also, I wonder if you could provide an example of what you would like to understand better by applying logic. Thanks.
by Fallible
Sun Oct 05, 2014 11:11 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Logic- knowledge wanted
Replies: 15
Views: 1225

Re: Best book on Finance I ever read, Ben Graham's Intellige

Interesting, because we now have Sharpe's definition of passive and Graham's. The former is based on mcap market portfolios <> deviation from that. Ultimately the tradeable and nontradeable global capital market. Because every dollar deviating - for good or bad reasons, more/less risk or a free lun...
by Fallible
Sat Oct 04, 2014 4:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best book on Finance I ever read, Ben Graham's Intelligent I
Replies: 27
Views: 2626

Re: Voluntarily Declining Pay Raise

Also, if you have a chance to talk to Angela, one question I would ask is why she tagged along with Don since it doesn't sound as if she would approve of what he did. She'd already quit, so it seems unlikely she could've been forced to join him . Perhaps she had a severance package and didn't want ...
by Fallible
Sat Oct 04, 2014 3:57 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Voluntarily Declining Pay Raise
Replies: 43
Views: 4120

Re: Voluntarily Declining Pay Raise

I work for a large company that has gone through major changes in the last couple of years to stay viable. One of those changes included a new appraisal system that was implemented earlier this year and resulted in a lot of good people not getting pay raises this year. Most of the employees made co...
by Fallible
Sat Oct 04, 2014 1:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Voluntarily Declining Pay Raise
Replies: 43
Views: 4120

Re: JPM Chase hacked

Here's another NYT article on ways to protect yourself and a bit more detail on what might happen:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/04/your- ... rself.html
by Fallible
Fri Oct 03, 2014 4:04 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: JPM Chase hacked
Replies: 13
Views: 1864

Re: what is risk?

. 1. The young buck ... <and> 2. The old fogey ... When analyzing investment risk we need to distinguish between the "risk" of the investment and our own attitude toward that risk . ... This, to me, seems to note investor behavior of the kind pkcrafter and others have been posting about h...
by Fallible
Wed Oct 01, 2014 12:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what is risk?
Replies: 116
Views: 4390

Re: Oatmeal suggestions

livesoft wrote:Well, I eat walnuts, blueberries, raisins, and bananas, but not oatmeal and I am sure that I am just as smart, rich, strong, handsome, and modest as jazztonight. That's scientific enough for me. :beer


And me. :beer
by Fallible
Tue Sep 30, 2014 10:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Oatmeal suggestions
Replies: 107
Views: 5396

Re: Oatmeal suggestions

You must not have read the last line in jazztonight's post above yours. :P Right. I concluded that the rest of the stuff that jazztonight puts in his oatmeal is what gives him those results. He could dispense with the oatmeal leaving the rest and get the same results. It is good to have a scientist...
by Fallible
Tue Sep 30, 2014 9:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Oatmeal suggestions
Replies: 107
Views: 5396
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