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Re: Why bonds??

Now look at the S+P500 and see that we just (in the last couple of months) passed the old all time high from 2000. So, in the last 14 years stocks have not given you ANY return on investment (buy and hold, ignore dividends for a second) - thats a far cry form the hoped 6 % per year. Bonds at the sa...
by FNK
Fri Feb 28, 2014 8:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why bonds??
Replies: 25
Views: 2258

Re: How likely the feds ever tax Roth IRAs?

There already are benefit programs that look at retirement plan balances, including Roth. It's not exactly taxation, because it's rare to worry about taxes and social nets at the same time, but it does mean that Roth is not free of everything forever.
by FNK
Fri Feb 28, 2014 2:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How likely the feds ever tax Roth IRAs?
Replies: 12
Views: 1036

Re: Rental Property Analysis

Frankly speaking, annual turnover and 3-month vacancies is an extremely conservative expectation. At least, a standard lease is 1 year, and anything less comes with a premium. Unless... shudder... you're thinking of renting to students. In which case, I withdraw my endorsement. You're not a dormitor...
by FNK
Fri Feb 28, 2014 2:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rental Property Analysis
Replies: 17
Views: 1235

Re: Small-cap (over)valuations: should we stop tilting?

I totally am timing the market. At my last rebalancing round, I adjusted my AA by transferring 2% of the portfolio from small caps to total market. I am not willing to make larger moves.
by FNK
Fri Feb 28, 2014 2:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small-cap (over)valuations: should we stop tilting?
Replies: 11
Views: 886

Re: Why bonds??

While your portfolio is smallish (say, less than 3-5 years of expenses), and you have a lot of earning years ahead of you, you can skip bonds. But you don't want to be caught with your pants down as you approach retirement. So decide on a glide path and implement it.
by FNK
Fri Feb 28, 2014 1:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why bonds??
Replies: 25
Views: 2258

Re: Rental Property Analysis

I think good tenants (people who have more money than time) don't trawl craigslist but go to agents.

Also, the agent does not rent the place, you do. For small operations, you can deny anybody you don't like.
by FNK
Fri Feb 28, 2014 11:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rental Property Analysis
Replies: 17
Views: 1235

Re: Bitcoin price plunges

Virtual currencies? Assumes that all away. Not even the protection Paypal offers us. So far bitcoin has been working on a better dollar bill. It was stupid for people to keep their bills in a cardboard box in a back alley, but that's not the bill's fault. Ripple is working on a better virtual excha...
by FNK
Fri Feb 28, 2014 11:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin price plunges
Replies: 246
Views: 17965

Re: Bitcoin price plunges

http://i.imgur.com/RJpSpvt.gif

[Embedded image to distracting animated GIF image removed by admin LadyGeek. I left the link.]
by FNK
Fri Feb 28, 2014 10:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin price plunges
Replies: 246
Views: 17965

Re: Bitcoin price plunges

Regarding mt gox, I thought there were two parts to a bitcoin. The code behind the coin plus a password. Is that true? If so, how can they be stolen if you don't have a password? Any good sites to explain this? As I understand it so far, it's primarily Mt. Gox itself being stupid and secondarily a ...
by FNK
Fri Feb 28, 2014 10:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin price plunges
Replies: 246
Views: 17965

Re: Bitcoin price plunges

Yes it can, but it has to be significantly better. They just need to be more appealing than Bitcoin for a host of reasons (promise of greater riches?, better security?, easier for laymen to use?, no mining?, faster transaction time?). Uh, yes, that counts as significantly better. One of the big iss...
by FNK
Fri Feb 28, 2014 10:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin price plunges
Replies: 246
Views: 17965

Re: Rental Property Analysis

The quality of tenants I got from craigslist was depressingly worse than via a realtor. Totally worth the fee.
by FNK
Fri Feb 28, 2014 10:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rental Property Analysis
Replies: 17
Views: 1235

Re: Rental Property Analysis

$9,000-($2,300x3)=$2,100. Hey, you're subtracting cash flow from net income. The $2300 pays $500 back to you in equity, so your net income in that case is $3600. The numbers look good. If you're up for the job, why not. Try to refinance into a better rate while you're there. Also, look into various...
by FNK
Fri Feb 28, 2014 12:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rental Property Analysis
Replies: 17
Views: 1235

Re: Bitcoin price plunges

Random Musings wrote:So, if there are many different virtual currencies out there, can a better mousetrap render certain ones to the dump heap?

Yes it can, but it has to be significantly better.
by FNK
Fri Feb 28, 2014 12:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin price plunges
Replies: 246
Views: 17965

Re: Bitcoin price plunges

Since the algorithms underpin a lot of mainstream economy, that will be scary. Not really sure how the mainstream economy is reliant on the same algorithms. SHA? ECDSA? They are popular on that internet thingy. In any event, while the chances of someone being able to successfully "counterfeit&...
by FNK
Thu Feb 27, 2014 10:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin price plunges
Replies: 246
Views: 17965

Re: Bitcoin price plunges

There's nothing to prevent a future crypto-currency from either convincing a crowd of miners or from being "10x better", whatever that means. ...except, you know, being convincing. That doesn't by itself mean that bitcoin is or will be a failure; it does mean that the hard limit on the nu...
by FNK
Thu Feb 27, 2014 2:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin price plunges
Replies: 246
Views: 17965

Re: Bitcoin price plunges

Alex Frakt wrote:
FNK wrote:Sigh.

May I suggest that we ban bitcoin discussions at this forum?

If you'll admit that they are not investment products :-)

Admitted. Done?
by FNK
Thu Feb 27, 2014 2:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin price plunges
Replies: 246
Views: 17965

Re: Should I Get Cheap Personal Loan & Invest It?

Here's an obvious way to capture the tax sheltered space without going into debt: you say your car and cash are $200K. Just dump the cash into your IRAs and you're good to go.
by FNK
Thu Feb 27, 2014 2:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I Get Cheap Personal Loan & Invest It?
Replies: 72
Views: 3678

Re: Bitcoin price plunges

Sigh. May I suggest that we ban bitcoin discussions at this forum? This thread sounds exactly like "Fed cabal evil fractional reserve banking". Bitcoin has huge problems, but not the ones we're discussing. Yes but if bit coin is hacked how does the investor recover the loss? The whole prem...
by FNK
Wed Feb 26, 2014 5:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin price plunges
Replies: 246
Views: 17965

Re: Bitcoin price plunges

and EXACTLY how do you know the coins in your wallet were not "stolen" ? As in how I know they still "are" in my wallet? Somebody will need to crack my public key to do that. Or as in how I know they were not stolen when I acquired them? Well, they are fungible in the wallets, s...
by FNK
Wed Feb 26, 2014 12:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin price plunges
Replies: 246
Views: 17965

Re: Bitcoin price plunges

Actually it more like the depository receipts for gold. If MT gox reports are correct 6% of the bitcoin out there are "stolen". Just watch as holders of hot bitcoins try to dump them on the suckers. In Mt. Gox, yes. In your own wallet, exactly like gold, including being able to toss it in...
by FNK
Wed Feb 26, 2014 11:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin price plunges
Replies: 246
Views: 17965

Re: Inheriting money, then leaving it to your kids

Gnirk wrote:
cheese_breath wrote:I would just consider it part of my total wealth. When I pass the kids will get whatever's left whether it's more or less than the inheritance.

Same here.

And here. Although we tend to skip generations in my family.
by FNK
Tue Feb 25, 2014 8:46 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Inheriting money, then leaving it to your kids
Replies: 23
Views: 1929

Re: Should I Get Cheap Personal Loan & Invest It?

So you sat out during a huge bull run, and now want to get back in with leverage?

Sounds like you're on the right road about passive investments, but still need to get the desire for rash moves out of your system. ;-)
by FNK
Tue Feb 25, 2014 8:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I Get Cheap Personal Loan & Invest It?
Replies: 72
Views: 3678

Re: Bitcoin price plunges

I'm getting a little weary of the "PayPal coin" or "Google coin" ideas. A huge premise of bitcoin is the absence of counterparty risk. If you keep your bitcoins in your wallet, rather than in Mt. Gox's wallet, you're safe of Mt. Gox's shenanigans (as far as your bitcoin balance i...
by FNK
Tue Feb 25, 2014 8:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin price plunges
Replies: 246
Views: 17965

Re: Reinvesting equity in existing rental property

You'll need to confer with a professional before you hurt yourself. Having said that, I believe it's possible, although maybe not desirable. You can take out a home equity loan secured by the place and use that to buy a different place. Since all your rentals are effectively one business, it doesn't...
by FNK
Tue Feb 25, 2014 7:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reinvesting equity in existing rental property
Replies: 3
Views: 196

Re: Bitcoin price plunges

The echo chamber is deafening.

Bitcoin is a nifty experiment. It's having hard times at the moment, but the verdict is far from final.

Wait and see.
by FNK
Tue Feb 25, 2014 4:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin price plunges
Replies: 246
Views: 17965

Re: Should I Get Cheap Personal Loan & Invest It?

The favorite response to that question around here is "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
by FNK
Tue Feb 25, 2014 4:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I Get Cheap Personal Loan & Invest It?
Replies: 72
Views: 3678

Re: Should I Get Cheap Personal Loan & Invest It?

It wouldn't make me any less risk tolerant. I deal with high amounts of risk/volatility daily. I don't know what you mean by not having enough going on in my life already? I didn't think setting up some IRAs and putting them in vanguard index funds or a target fund would be too much trouble. I'm no...
by FNK
Tue Feb 25, 2014 3:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I Get Cheap Personal Loan & Invest It?
Replies: 72
Views: 3678

Re: Should I Get Cheap Personal Loan & Invest It?

Agreed, bad idea. You hope that investment gains will outstrip the fixed expense. It's entirely possible that investment losses will add to the expense instead. I think you will be less risk tolerant at that point. Do you not have enough going on in your life already? Just invest whatever you would'...
by FNK
Tue Feb 25, 2014 3:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I Get Cheap Personal Loan & Invest It?
Replies: 72
Views: 3678

Re: Do you tilt? If so, how?

I have to make it complicated, so here it is: 50% of my portfolio is total stock markets (50/50 US/Intl); age-10 in bonds; the rest is small caps (again 50/50). The idea is that I'll hold a somewhat steady amount of small caps for a few decades, but will get rid of the extra risk and complexity arou...
by FNK
Mon Feb 24, 2014 12:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you tilt? If so, how?
Replies: 44
Views: 3579

Re: I give up (on Total Intl Bond Index)

columbia wrote:Since its inception, BNDX has returned .04%, while BND has lost 1.58%, in that same time period.

Small data set to be sure, but we're already seeing the diversification effect.

Hmmmmm, that's a very good point!

It being bonds, now's still a good time to exit. ;-)
by FNK
Thu Feb 20, 2014 1:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I give up (on Total Intl Bond Index)
Replies: 19
Views: 4096

Re: I give up (on Total Intl Bond Index)

Every country has its country-specific risks such as the one you mention. The higher risk of foreign stocks for US investors is the currency risk; if the dollar rises against the euro, European stocks will lose dollar value, while the US investors don't benefit from their US stocks having a higher ...
by FNK
Thu Feb 20, 2014 12:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I give up (on Total Intl Bond Index)
Replies: 19
Views: 4096

Re: Bitcoin price plunges

We're having this discussion every year. As they used to say on the internet, STAHP.
by FNK
Wed Feb 19, 2014 1:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin price plunges
Replies: 246
Views: 17965

Re: I give up (on Total Intl Bond Index)

This is also the reason that few investors hold US and foreign stocks in the market weights. Foreign stocks provide a diversification benefit, but they have a higher risk for US investors, and no higher expected returns (since they have a lower risk for foreign investors). It is thus more common to...
by FNK
Wed Feb 19, 2014 1:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I give up (on Total Intl Bond Index)
Replies: 19
Views: 4096

Re: ESPP Any Good?

I think contributing to a roth & 401k is more important... Ahem... you should sell the stock as soon as you get it. Contribute to tax advantaged accounts then. You probably pay tax on that 15% discount You definitely pay tax on that discount, and on the gains. As long as the tax rate is less th...
by FNK
Wed Feb 19, 2014 12:38 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: ESPP Any Good?
Replies: 16
Views: 1080

Re: I give up (on Total Intl Bond Index)

SEC yield is forward-looking, and it's looking I'll get less from TIBM than from TBM. Most of TBM is connected to the US$ printing press and won't default, can't say so about TIBM. TBM can get hit by US inflation, but the currency hedge cuts both ways. As observed, it did protect me from the strengt...
by FNK
Tue Feb 18, 2014 8:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I give up (on Total Intl Bond Index)
Replies: 19
Views: 4096

I give up (on Total Intl Bond Index)

So I rode with the new VTIBX fund from opening to today. It paid a bit of interest and had little volatility, so no regrets, but... The SEC yield is 1.48%. The duration is 6.6 years. I expect to be compensated for intl risk, and I don't see any compensation. Probably the drag from currency hedging i...
by FNK
Tue Feb 18, 2014 12:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I give up (on Total Intl Bond Index)
Replies: 19
Views: 4096

Re: SS @ 62 w $300k savings or SS @ 70 & rely on $300k by ag

Assuming the SS benefits are 1200 and 2000 a month, not year... $1200*12=$14400 a year, does not cover your needs. $2000*12=$24000 a year, does cover your needs, indexed, for the rest of your life, with a bit of surplus $300K/$20K=15 years, enough to cover the gap from 60 to 70, with a bit of surplu...
by FNK
Sun Feb 09, 2014 11:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SS @ 62 w $300k savings or SS @ 70 & rely on $300k by age 60
Replies: 8
Views: 1251

Re: Portfolio theory and the riskless (safest) asset

You're denying the premise.

The argument is "if your investing horizon is n years, n-year bonds are your safest bet". You're saying "I don't know my investing horizon". Too bad, then the argument does not apply to you.
by FNK
Sat Feb 08, 2014 10:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio theory and the riskless (safest) asset
Replies: 54
Views: 3709

Re: SCSI

Experiment/troll successful, conversation derailed from the start.
by FNK
Thu Feb 06, 2014 7:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SCSI
Replies: 16
Views: 1565

Re: Outlook dot com and aliases

What's the flaw? The security hinges on the password, not the name. Yes, but the name is one part of a two part system. If you can keep both confidential, isn't that better than one? It's like complaining that the front door of the bank does not have the same caliber of lock as the vault. If somebo...
by FNK
Thu Feb 06, 2014 10:54 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Outlook dot com and aliases
Replies: 13
Views: 616

Re: Outlook dot com and aliases

What's the flaw? The security hinges on the password, not the name.
by FNK
Wed Feb 05, 2014 2:55 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Outlook dot com and aliases
Replies: 13
Views: 616

Re: Allocation help needed

Read the wiki about choosing your allocation, although it still takes soul-searching to get something actionable. My approach is: you want to have at least 40-50% bonds when you retire, and you want to start transitioning from stocks to bonds well in advance so that a market crash doesn't blindside ...
by FNK
Thu Jan 30, 2014 8:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Allocation help needed
Replies: 4
Views: 461

Re: Not happy with market

Let him panic and sell. MOAR FOR US!
by FNK
Thu Jan 30, 2014 8:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Not happy with market
Replies: 148
Views: 13086

Re: Advice on Tax Sale ETF

Just make sure to wait 30 days or the wash sale rule will catch up with you.
by FNK
Wed Jan 29, 2014 9:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice on Tax Sale ETF
Replies: 5
Views: 258

Re: Payoff mortgage or not?

ALL expenses incurred in running a rental are deductible, both from federal and state taxes. Mortgage interest, insurance, repairs, driving over there, commissions, you name it. You may not be able to write them down today, but they will surely offset the rental income, and will carry over year to y...
by FNK
Wed Jan 29, 2014 9:35 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Payoff mortgage or not?
Replies: 8
Views: 991

Re: Not happy with market

OP and everybody: PANIC. SELL EVERYTHING. NOW.

Because my 401(k) contribution is on Friday and I could use a better deal.

Actually, to make it more precise SELL EVERYTHING ON FRIDAY.
by FNK
Wed Jan 29, 2014 9:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Not happy with market
Replies: 148
Views: 13086

Re: Roth IRA $11,000 Vanguard

Target Retirement is the best choice until your portfolio grows to $50-100K.
by FNK
Tue Jan 28, 2014 11:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth IRA $11,000 Vanguard
Replies: 14
Views: 1895

Re: To be an Investor

galeno wrote:Gold can be a good speculative bet if used correctly. Buy it when no one wants it (times of greed) and sell it when everyone wants it (times of fear).

...sometimes known as rebalancing. ;-)
by FNK
Tue Jan 28, 2014 11:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To be an Investor
Replies: 16
Views: 1153
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