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Re: Read too many books... help untangle

So I have been a knee deep in books over the past month (and juxtaposing with what I read here) or so trying to plan a portfolio for post business exit and it seems I have thoroughly confused myself. It seems there is a lot of contradiction out there, but maybe I just see it as contradiction. It se...
by EyeYield
Sat Sep 27, 2014 1:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Read too many books... help untangle
Replies: 35
Views: 2299

Re: Holding Cash because Tried to time Market

I have started the reallocation but still have a lot of cash to place (it currently is in a savings account in the bank). Right now its about 70 stocks/30 bonds. I plan to continue to gradually put my cash in while retaining a cash emergency fund. I am going to put about 10% in the Vanguard Tax Exe...
by EyeYield
Fri Sep 19, 2014 1:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Holding Cash because Tried to time Market
Replies: 78
Views: 6375

Re: Holding Cash because Tried to time Market

The market hit an all time high on Feb 4th 2013, bursting through 14000. At that time I was, as I am today, trying to implore young college grads to open a Roth and start contributing regularly until retirement. A very large percent of them had the same feelings then as you do now and many are still...
by EyeYield
Thu Sep 18, 2014 9:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Holding Cash because Tried to time Market
Replies: 78
Views: 6375

Re: CalPERS Eliminates Hedge Fund Program

Of course there are other opinions too. http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-0918-spangler-calpers-hedge-funds-20140917-story.html "However, at their heart, hedge funds are simply a way to access the talents of particular portfolio managers. An investment in a fund is not so much a genera...
by EyeYield
Thu Sep 18, 2014 1:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CalPERS Eliminates Hedge Fund Program
Replies: 44
Views: 2887

Re: CalPERS Eliminates Hedge Fund Program

"CalPERS' decision to sell its hedge fund holdings probably will be closely watched by other public pension systems. Over the last decade, many funds have been increasing their hedge fund stakes. But a growing number of public pension funds in California and other states are getting out of hedg...
by EyeYield
Tue Sep 16, 2014 1:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CalPERS Eliminates Hedge Fund Program
Replies: 44
Views: 2887

Re: POLL: What was the first stock you ever bought?

I started with 5 shares each in 5 DRIPs, but don't know the exact order, in the early '60's and still have them now. Allied Signal American Electric Power Coca Cola Merck Mobile Oil My life would be greatly changed if I selected others I was considering at the time. Think Eastern Air Lines, Montgome...
by EyeYield
Wed Sep 10, 2014 12:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: POLL: What was the first stock you ever bought?
Replies: 74
Views: 2858

Re: If you won the lottery, does boglehead thinking still wo

Yes, Boglehead thinking does still work. I would do what John Bogle has done and I would give most of it away to charity.
by EyeYield
Mon Sep 08, 2014 1:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you won the lottery, does boglehead thinking still work?
Replies: 39
Views: 2941

Re: Will Bill Gross beat the Total Bond Market Index?

I tried to answer the question by flipping a coin, but it landed on it's edge.
Gross was heads, if anybody cares.
by EyeYield
Tue Sep 02, 2014 6:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Will Bill Gross beat the Total Bond Market Index?
Replies: 57
Views: 5704

Re: Why invest in bonds?

BogleBoogie wrote:
EyeYield wrote:Can I assume that you're prepared to risk your future on a six year chart from twenty years ago?


Had to read this a few times, it's quite insightful! Nice.

Thanks. It seems the bogleheads have been trolled. The thread starter hasn't responded......again.
by EyeYield
Mon Sep 01, 2014 7:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why invest in bonds?
Replies: 103
Views: 6302

Re: Why invest in bonds?

Can I assume that you're prepared to risk your future on a six year chart from twenty years ago?
by EyeYield
Sun Aug 31, 2014 4:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why invest in bonds?
Replies: 103
Views: 6302

Re: 3MM Casino Jackpot

I'd take the lump sum, but I don't spend my spare time in a casino.
A gambler with a lump sum sounds dangerous.
by EyeYield
Fri Aug 29, 2014 9:26 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 3MM Casino Jackpot
Replies: 10
Views: 1803

Re: Poll: How many own zero/few stocks?

I started investing before index funds existed. My portfolio is still mostly individual stocks but I am gradually liquidating them and shifting to index funds. Same here. When the index fund was first made available to the public, I was so fully entrenched in DRIP contributions, that I didn't notic...
by EyeYield
Fri Aug 29, 2014 8:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [Sell off individual stocks?] How many own zero/few stocks?
Replies: 68
Views: 2754

Re: What 5 stocks can I own forever?

Forever? DeLorean Motor Co. of course. It's in the future right now, securing it's stock price forever, but when it comes back, it's going to be huge.
by EyeYield
Tue Aug 26, 2014 1:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What 5 stocks can I own forever?
Replies: 58
Views: 4574

Re: S&P500 over 2000

The Wizard wrote:In the annual Bogleheads Contest, I suspect the bulk of estimates for S&P500 at the END of 2014 are below 2000.00.
Still 4 months remaining for it to revert back there...

How about a contest that estimates how long after 2000, will the financial porn industry start making 3000 predictions?
by EyeYield
Mon Aug 25, 2014 8:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 over 2000
Replies: 68
Views: 5442

Re: Why don't utilities get any praise

WHY DON'T UTILITIES GET ANY PRAISE For the same reason individual stocks don't. You could just as easily pick a stock that doesn't pay a dividend, but outperformed the indexes for 10 years, and take 3.5% from that every year during retirement and it may last you longer than the dividends. http://qu...
by EyeYield
Fri Aug 22, 2014 10:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't utilities get any praise
Replies: 39
Views: 3739

Re: How the rich stay/get richer??

Aptenodytes wrote:Right -- Warren Buffett is rich, and staying rich, but his holdings pay no dividends.

Almost everything he owns pay dividends, in fact it's estimated that he made 62 mill in divs last year.
by EyeYield
Wed Aug 20, 2014 1:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [live off dividends?] How the rich stay/get richer??
Replies: 62
Views: 5006

Re: Goldman-Sachs: bonds to 4%, 6% stock returns

Never tell anyone outside the family what you're thinking.
by EyeYield
Tue Aug 19, 2014 5:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goldman-Sachs: bonds to 4%, 6% stock returns
Replies: 20
Views: 2821

Re: What do you put in your safety deposit box?

1908-1911 baseball cards, gold, silver, rare coins, paper EE bonds and sentimental stuff.
by EyeYield
Wed Aug 13, 2014 1:54 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What do you put in your safety deposit box?
Replies: 68
Views: 10698

Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

The same. Almost to the dollar. Although my neighborhood is "hot" by all local accounts, the Zillow estimate has it 15% above the actual value. I wish. Since April, Zillow has incrementally added over 100k to my property - insane.
by EyeYield
Mon Aug 11, 2014 7:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?
Replies: 94
Views: 5862

Re: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone

Aww, jeez.

CXBC - Reaking News - "Shares of XYZ rose 15% in after hours trading today after paying it's dividend and getting a strong buy rating from Finporn analyst Flubber Gasbag."

I agree with everybody, because everybody is right. He/she who sleeps at night wins.
by EyeYield
Fri Aug 08, 2014 10:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone
Replies: 149
Views: 11307

Re: When is a 3.75% load worth it?

If markets actually did the opposite of their past performance, which is up, longer term, we'd all be fighting a losing battle. As you point out, we're not talking about markets, but the performance of actively managed funds. I provided an example ^ and you'll learn of many more if you do some read...
by EyeYield
Thu Aug 07, 2014 11:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When is a 3.75% load worth it?
Replies: 79
Views: 5397

Re: When is a 3.75% load worth it?

There are a dozen or so authors who have provided real world evidence within their writings and, as I'm sure you'll see, it's largely irrefutable. Check out some of the recommended books and papers in the Wiki. With a close examination of the literature, you will find the answers to most of your ot...
by EyeYield
Thu Aug 07, 2014 2:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When is a 3.75% load worth it?
Replies: 79
Views: 5397

Re: When is a 3.75% load worth it?

The mantra around here of stay the course...guess what that course is based on? Past performance. Stay the course is more about buying and holding forever, while ignoring market fluctuations, not past performance. The research, that you say you haven't read, is worth reading. There are a dozen or s...
by EyeYield
Wed Aug 06, 2014 9:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When is a 3.75% load worth it?
Replies: 79
Views: 5397

Re: When is a 3.75% load worth it?

How about here? PIXAX (Pimco fundamental index plus A-shares, 3.75% load, 1.19% expense ratio) in orange, SP500 in blue: http://i1180.photobucket.com/albums/x410/dstp2/PIXAXvSP500vrefport2A_zpscfd1b553.jpg Like I said, nice chart, but it's only five years. I believe that you would be even more conv...
by EyeYield
Wed Aug 06, 2014 12:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When is a 3.75% load worth it?
Replies: 79
Views: 5397

Re: When is a 3.75% load worth it?

Nice chart, very smart man mamaging the fund. Reminds me of Bill Miller, another very smart man, who managed a fund, Legg Mason Value Trust - I believe, who beat the market for 15 years. Until he didn't and went virtually bust. It's been several months now that I have thought about Bill Gross and ho...
by EyeYield
Wed Aug 06, 2014 1:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When is a 3.75% load worth it?
Replies: 79
Views: 5397

Re: What actions to take in a stock market crash?

1987, 2000 and 2008, I was working and reinvesting dividends, so I did nothing but add to my DRIPs and some to my IRA. Now retired, my AA is 60/20/20. 20% in cash is a drag on my total return, but I consider it crash insurance. 10% for 4 years of living expenses and 10% for rebalancing as necessary....
by EyeYield
Mon Aug 04, 2014 10:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What actions to take in a stock market crash?
Replies: 85
Views: 5598

Re: What to tell friends who think "it's all a scam"

The first answer here, which has been echoed, is the best one. This is a chance for you to get some education, so take notes. Have another drink and have your friend itemize his reasons why it's a scam. Then ask his advice on what you should do with the money you've saved. Does he recommend CD's or ...
by EyeYield
Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to tell friends who think "it's all a scam"
Replies: 64
Views: 5773

Re: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone

A dividend income strategy should be for everyone. Why invest if you're not going to get something in return? Dividend strategy needs to be defined, other than looking for individual stocks. The S&P 500 index consists of individual stocks that mostly pay dividends. The three fund portfolio is an...
by EyeYield
Fri Aug 01, 2014 10:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone
Replies: 149
Views: 11307

Re: was Bogle right about ETFs?

This article is paraphrasing his "The Little Book of Common Sense Investing". As long as you don't trade them and stay away from the newly designed "specialty" ETFs, buying the total market index ETFs and holding them forever is just as good as a mutual fund index fund. But, obvi...
by EyeYield
Wed Jul 16, 2014 7:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: was Bogle right about ETFs?
Replies: 26
Views: 3050

Re: No bonds at all.

rleonardh wrote: Ok What im doing at age 34 is a 80/20 AA.

That's fine. The most important thing for you to do is live your life, continue saving and maximizing your tax free accounts, but enjoy life.
by EyeYield
Tue Jun 24, 2014 12:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No bonds at all.
Replies: 176
Views: 12185

Re: If I am young, why not invest in a risky fund?

The thread was written about 13 months ago. Since that time, VGSIX (REIT) significantly lagged the overall market VTSAX (Total Market) Exactly. REITs corrected almost immediately after Dr. Bernstein sounded the warning. Prophetic. Now the REITs are almost back to where they were then. Check out the...
by EyeYield
Fri Jun 20, 2014 11:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: If I am young, why not invest in a risky fund?
Replies: 45
Views: 3293

Re: If I am young, why not invest in a risky fund?

500Kaiser wrote:REIT - consider what at least one expert thinks about REIT valuations today.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=115965&p=1688269&hilit=Reit#

Wow, look at the date of that thread and the performance of REITs since.
by EyeYield
Thu Jun 19, 2014 8:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: If I am young, why not invest in a risky fund?
Replies: 45
Views: 3293

Re: If I am young, why not invest in a risky fund?

Bad idea. 40 years is a long time to be in one sector, when individual sectors can be in the dumps for a decade. Especially REITs and healthcare, which are probably more susceptible to regulatory events than any other sector. Edit: Now that I think about it - Utilities, Energy, Telecom, Technology, ...
by EyeYield
Thu Jun 19, 2014 6:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: If I am young, why not invest in a risky fund?
Replies: 45
Views: 3293

Re: No bonds at all.

Of course what everyone doesn't seem to know is what makes this work is a decent return from your account I would think everyone, at least here, knows that, FD. After all, it was just a tale to illustrate a point. Investor B may have started investing when the return was 2% or 9%, but investor A is...
by EyeYield
Wed Jun 18, 2014 7:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No bonds at all.
Replies: 176
Views: 12185

Re: No bonds at all.

B) if you only have like 20k in a roth, it will make more by future conturbations, than actual returns. No, asset allocation aside, compounding wins. Future contributions will not "make" more. Compounding plus tax free earnings equals larger growth. The most valuable capital a young perso...
by EyeYield
Wed Jun 18, 2014 1:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No bonds at all.
Replies: 176
Views: 12185

Re: No bonds at all.

What if someone new started investing in a roth? Sense the roof is so low, whould it not advacte have as much return as possible? I brought up the Roth, so I assume that this is directed at me, but I don't understand your question. Basically a Roth is just another savings account with different rul...
by EyeYield
Wed Jun 18, 2014 11:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No bonds at all.
Replies: 176
Views: 12185

Re: No bonds at all.

With 28K, it doesn't matter much how you allocate today. It matters how much you save going forward, and for how many years. It's also important to take advantage of any free money available to you, like a matching 401k and a RothIRA. If you don't have a Roth, get one. You're only allowed $5500 a y...
by EyeYield
Tue Jun 17, 2014 10:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No bonds at all.
Replies: 176
Views: 12185

Re: Bernstein's Four Pillars of Investing for $1.99 on June

Thanks for this alert. I used to read about all these super deals on Kindle books before I bought an iPad, but now I can actually use them. I very much enjoy how Dr. Bernstein writes, as evidenced by my reading of The Investor's Manifesto" and I'm sure I'll enjoy his writing of The Four Pillars.
by EyeYield
Thu May 29, 2014 8:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein's Four Pillars of Investing for $1.99 on June 4th!
Replies: 88
Views: 4839

Re: Stock Market to Plunge? What a friend said.

I actually knew about the upcoming market plunge almost a year ago, long before your coworker. On Fox news I saw a Goldline commercial, and they showed a clip of an expert saying that we were in the midst of the worst stock market bubble in history (true story). So, I've been sitting on all cash an...
by EyeYield
Wed May 14, 2014 12:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Market to Plunge? What a friend said.
Replies: 78
Views: 6177

Re: Stock Market to Plunge? What a friend said.

Did your co-worker show you his confirmation statements, showing that he has taken himself out of the market, proving that he strongly believes what he’s telling you? Does he have a history of accurately calling future market movements? Will he know when it’s time to get back in the market? I didn’t...
by EyeYield
Tue May 13, 2014 5:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Market to Plunge? What a friend said.
Replies: 78
Views: 6177

Re: FutureAdvisor reducing exposure to US equities

... if you want to churn out books, blog posts and newsletters, you have to have something new and interesting to talk about, ad nauseam . That sounds about right, I mean they are the Future Advisor,right? That's their job, to advise for the future. Now, what about their PAST future advice? Say fro...
by EyeYield
Sat Mar 22, 2014 10:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FutureAdvisor reducing exposure to US equities
Replies: 10
Views: 1330

Re: State Farm or Allstate

Stay the course. That's what I've done with State Farm and no one can compete, because of all the loyalty points I've earned and all the additional policies I've added over the years. 39 years - auto - In three different states. 30 years - home owners - two different states 20 years - earthquake 1 y...
by EyeYield
Sat Mar 22, 2014 9:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: State Farm or Allstate
Replies: 26
Views: 2141

Re: Not too late investing strategy

You are 61 with a million dollars, little in way of liabilities and would like to take a "soft" retirement at 62 but will have to fund medical for you and your wife. What would you do? The first thing I would do is try to provide some more information. There's a decent checklist here: htt...
by EyeYield
Fri Mar 21, 2014 10:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Not too late investing strategy
Replies: 4
Views: 514

Re: Alert. Scam with callers posing as IRS agents...

I've had calls like this. I take these calls very seriously and do my best to help these people get the money they're looking for. First I plead with them not to have me arrested and that I will do anything I can to prevent it. Then I tell them I lost all my credit cards and banking information in a...
by EyeYield
Thu Mar 20, 2014 9:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Alert. Scam with callers posing as IRS agents...
Replies: 29
Views: 2372

Re: Investing in stocks--A surprising Google report ?

What this proves is, that like everyone else, google knows nuthin. :mrgreen:
by EyeYield
Tue Mar 18, 2014 2:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in stocks--A surprising Google report ?
Replies: 37
Views: 4242

Re: Get ready for the Dow at 6,000 by 2016: Pro

Come on - predictors of the future....really?? I predict I will have an automobile accident with big foot and the results will be a harry dent.
by EyeYield
Tue Mar 04, 2014 3:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Get ready for the Dow at 6,000 by 2016: Pro
Replies: 46
Views: 5157

Re: Favorite forum for active investing?

I active trade about 1-2% of my portfolio, for recreational purposes only, and I quite enjoy it. It's also an exercise in discipline, since I have to continually remind myself that success is mostly luck. My speculative trades from the past year are up 245%, so it's hard not to let it go to my head,...
by EyeYield
Fri Feb 14, 2014 2:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Favorite forum for active investing?
Replies: 32
Views: 2928

Re: JOHN BOGLE'S NOMINATION FOR ECONOMIC LAUREATE

The president may be looking for a MYRA Czar. There wouldn't be anyone I would trust more than Mr. B. Politics should be kept out of it.
by EyeYield
Wed Jan 29, 2014 10:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: JOHN BOGLE'S NOMINATION FOR PRESIDENTIAL MEDAL OF FREEDOM
Replies: 43
Views: 5280

Re: Not happy with market

It seems like a reasonable time to resurrect this old thread. Is anyone else not happy with their returns lately? Lately? I know what my returns were last year; it's time to get tax info together, and yes I am happy with them. In another twelve months I'll know what my returns were for 2014, so I'l...
by EyeYield
Wed Jan 29, 2014 9:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Not happy with market
Replies: 148
Views: 13468

Want to be a Smarter Investor? [Sales pitch]

Come To The Free Power Trading Workshop: Market Timing For Short-Term Income And Long Term Wealth This is the language from a mailer I received today and it irks me to no end, since I know exactly what it is; a scheme to make someone else rich. I subscribed to Money magazine a few months ago, using ...
by EyeYield
Tue Jan 21, 2014 1:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Want to be a Smarter Investor? [Sales pitch]
Replies: 4
Views: 665
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