Bogleheads.org

rmelvey wrote:The coin flip game has an average arithmetic return of 25%

Let me repeat myself. What are you averaging? And I will probably add why should I care about that particular statistic? The final distribution always has zero expected return, your just rearranging the tails.

Rebalancing brings your portfolio's geometric return closer to the weighted average arithmetic return of its components. Momentum need not have anything to do with it. It is a function of diversification reducing steep losses, which we all know kills compounding. I made a post awhile ago that shows...

livesoft wrote:

Valuethinker wrote:.... The long run track of securities prices looks fractal ....

What does not look fractal?

With enough terms, I can use a Fourier transform to model anything. Anything. Enough terms.

Except the Heaviside step function (see Gibbs phenomenon).

The bid/ask spread is the agent commission, not all that different than for financial assets. The price is the same for the buyer and the seller. So doesn't really make sense to add anything for this on top of the commission. There are other costs in addition to the commission, but the bid/ask spre...

It has already doubled in value once, as the others have said it yield 4%. If you don't need the money, leave it alone - folks can't get 4% in a 30 year bond today. Since it matures in 2022 it is effectively a 9 year bond at this time. It's better to use the 10 year rate for comparison rather than ...

Apologies for reviving an old thread, but here's an update if anyone cares. Flying to Copenhagen on Monday! It's a red-eye flight with a 19 hour layover in London. We're planning on hopping on a double-decker sightseeing bus in London and hitting the high points while we are there. Been there, done...

And then when you buy, you have the same problem (ie you sell at the bid price, and buy at the offer/ask price, and there is probably typically a 3-4% gap between the two). Add it all up, you can lose 10% every time you move house. Huge transactions costs. But NOT so obvious with houses, where the ...

To confirm what damjam said you can look at NY state form IT-2105.9 , where underpayment penalties are calculated. Line 14 is where withholding is entered and if you follow the reference to IT-201 you'll see that only the total of NY State, NY City and Yonkers City tax matter. 14 Income taxes withhe...

It might be worth doing some Roth conversions. The converted funds can be taken out tax and penalty free after 5 tax years. If you can convert some funds, while staying in the 15% bracket, in your 52nd year then you have the option of taking additional withdrawals in your 57th year. This helps if th...

It may be worth mentioning that bogleheads.org password have been attacked in the past. Weak passwords were used to hijack accounts and vandalize the forum. Responding to this took some effort from the moderators and admins. Choosing a reasonably password may help to prevent a recurrence and save th...

I find that jogging once a week is just the wrong frequency. A week off is enough to allow the big muscles to recover from fatigue (so I can go hard) but not enough to allow smaller issues (including blisters and knee pain) to fully heal, and it's not frequently enough to adapt to the exercise. Shor...

maroon wrote:I had posted to this topic earlier, and my comment disappeared without explanation! Is this typical?

It is not typical. There were technical problems, it had nothing to do with your post.


viewtopic.php?f=3&t=116691&newpost=1700456

I would not bet on your house beating inflation-- because historically in many places it has not, particularly taking into account repair and maintenance (and property taxes, which definitely rise with/above inflation!). However your mortgage (long term, fixed rate) is an inflation hedge even if yo...

Pay period: April 15 - April 30 This is an unusual pay period. If the month is split in 2 it's usually the 1-15 and 16-end of month. So if you start on the 17th you only miss one day of the pay period. Make a note to make your last day of work the 14th. :shock: I hate to quote myself, but nobody ha...

Good luck getting over 3 years out of a battery, seems the general consensus is they are not made like they use to be. You can go to a local chain automotive parts store and they can check your battery and alternator. I don't ever pretend to be an automotive expert, but am very impressed by the kno...

The lifetime for car batteries depends on a number of variables. For example, a battery with higher ratings will last longer than one with lower ratings (less lead). Batteries will last longer in moderate climates than in hot climates. A good estimate on the life you can expect from a battery is th...

Theres still the 10% bracket, which could save you at least $800 a year. i see no way to do that when rmd start for me and the wife he have to take about 30,000 a year. i have no shot of that. 15 percent yes 10 percent no :beer You do it before RMDs kick in. Each year you convert enough to a Roth t...

2. the amount of taxes you will pay between when you retire and you start taking minimim distributions. by taking at 62 me and the wife will pay no federal tax(all returned) for the next 8 years when i start making distributions. i suggest you actually look at probable RMD removal amounts. there ar...

2. the amount of taxes you will pay between when you retire and you start taking minimim distributions. by taking at 62 me and the wife will pay no federal tax(all returned) for the next 8 years when i start making distributions. i suggest you actually look at probable RMD removal amounts. there ar...

Sadly, it is also easy to send you an e-mail where the sender's address appears to be a valid Vanguard e-mail, but under the covers, is actually something else. Every e-mail address and URL link that you see in a mail message consists of two things: the text that appears on the screen, and the actu...

As important as any other question is "what are your goals?"

Do you want to leave an estate?
Do you want to maximize your chances of living a moderate life style or maximize your chances of getting rich?

how about another way. using my own ss figures from ss. 23000/39000. what happens to me at 70. do i get 39000. no i get 23000 plus16 thousand. that is only real way to compare. so from 62-70 i am 184,000 ahead. then well use me getting 23000/16000. however 23000 is more than 16,000 b y7000. so what...

although you get more absolute dollars from ss the op has a point. say your 62. you get 23000 yearly at 62 next to the 62 you also put the figure eight years is worth(184000). so each year until 70 you get 23000 from ss and this is 23000 you don;t have to take out of your savings. so at 70 you've g...

although you get more absolute dollars from ss the op has a point. say your 62. you get 23000 yearly at 62 next to the 62 you also put the figure eight years is worth(184000). so each year until 70 you get 23000 from ss and this is 23000 you don;t have to take out of your savings. so at 70 you've g...

I'm not double counting. At age 79, my lifetime accumulated SS payout is the same regardless of whether I started at 62 or 70. However, there is still the 200K hole I referenced that was used from the nest egg between ages 62 and 70. At age 79, I am even on SS and going forward I am ahead of the ga...

I think the essence of what I concluded was this; let's say...to use round numbers...that I need to withdraw $25K per year from the nest egg from age 62 until I were to start SS at age 70. So for 8 years that is $200K. The break even point on SS alone by delaying to age 70 over age 62 is about 79 (...

I am struggling to find a *useful* contribution for lead. Shielding from radiation. What do you think is inside that thing they drape over you during dental x-rays. Darn near the entire development of electronics depended on lead. Sure we can replace lead now we have a developed industry, with elec...

I broke down your statement into the important parts for you: Here's a recently-discovered scientific fact: bismuth is radioactive. (I do have a cool-looking piece of bismuth like the picture). Detecting the bismuth decay required a cutting edge detector. Pure bismuth is significantly less radioact...

Pay period: April 15 - April 30 This is an unusual pay period. If the month is split in 2 it's usually the 1-15 and 16-end of month. So if you start on the 17th you only miss one day of the pay period. Make a note to make your last day of work the 14th. :shock: I hate to quote myself, but nobody ha...

Consider what you can do with a Social Security number and a matching name and address - which are on your return. If you did a direct deposit refund, add the bank routing and account numbers to the pile. If you think your name, address, social security number and bank account numbers are secret in...

You can also type in the legend as text, something like:
Green -- S&P500 Index
Yellow -- Vanguard Total Stock Market

Not entirely elegant, but it gets the job done.

aa411 wrote:Pay period: April 15 - April 30

This is an unusual pay period. If the month is split in 2 it's usually the 1-15 and 16-end of month. So if you start on the 17th you only miss one day of the pay period. Make a note to make your last day of work the 14th.

I'd wait until the premium was up to at least 0.50% before I did this. That way, I would make more than $300. Why wait? He can make his $300 today and if the premium is still higher than the spread he can do it again tomorrow. I'd guess that Vanguard would frown on this practice, but I can't see an...

I have been a lifelong renter. Except for one year, I have never carried renter insurance. I guess you can say I self-insure. Alternatively, you took unnecessary risk but the risk has not materialized (yet). Victoria If I may engage in level-two thinking as Larry espouses: unless one has virtually ...

If I understand correctly the OP is employed and may have health insurance through her employer. It's worth checking how this interacts with her husband's medicare. When I checked mine a few years ago when my spouse or I became medicare eligible my employers health insurance would function as a medi...

Strong passwords are not hard to remember if you use acronym for a favorite phrase and combine with numbers that are memorable. You can even include capital letters and a special character to remember. I have one weak password that I use for non sensitive websites but use different strong passwords...

Regarding renter's insurance, I personally used the highest deductible they offered. I am not concerned with filing a claim for food if the power goes out, etc. I am just covering my [back --admin LadyGeek] in case I leave the oven on and burn the place down, cause water damage throughout the build...

Or some bizarre clause in somebody's stock options.

My outdoor lights that I have recently put on timers for convenience and security are next to be upgraded since they are on over night. You may find that you have to replace the timer when you switch to LED bulbs, since some LED lights won't work properly with some timers, light sensors, motion sen...

corner559 wrote:I do have cash on hand to pay it, but I'd rather not touch it since I will need a good chunk of that money for grad school soon.

How soon is soon? If it's beyond Jan 1 2017 2018 you can convert this year and withdraw the converted amount tax and penalty free.

Edited because I can't add.

There is a distinct odor to classifying Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea as emerging markets. By most measures they have done better than the EU as a whole, and certainly better than many of it's constituent parts. If this keeps up we'll have to look at reclassifying several core European countries...

It never ceases to amaze me how much investment porn gets put out there--here's great example http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-57583487/do-etfs-make-the-market-less-efficient/ You might want to rewrite that, I don't think you meant that your own article was investment porn. :o

My personal conclusion. Rebalancing is a personal choice, not a choice that statistics can validate. There’s certainly nothing the matter with doing it (although I don’t do it myself), but also no reason to slavishly worry about small changes in the equity ratio. Maybe, for example, if your 50% equ...

(3) make them random by using a password generator to eliminate the possibility of social engineering. And then (4) eliminate the risk of keyloggers - do not type the password - this, and all the other factors (1 through 4), are easily implemented by using a password tool like LastPass. Beyond that...

Even safer and better than the recommendation from the comic strip above is to just use Keepass for all things financial or requiring security, and max out all the password generation complexity for the given website. Yes, you're then tied to Keepass to logon to the website, but that's likely good ...

How should I max out my Roth? Invest the $5500 into the two existing Roth funds and then rebalance my 401K to bring my AA back to norm? I assume the 401K is the most tax advantageous place to rebalance. Greg You have a good plan. If there is a better plan (and there probably is) it is not much bett...

If your selling bonds and buying back essentially the same bonds duration matters not at all, because you're in the same position before and after the trades, just in different accounts. This is the same as selling individual stocks to buy a stock index fund in a tax deferred account. The price does...

Article where Larry Kotlikoff discusses the implicit assumptions built into different SS planning software products. Much of the article is concerned with what should be the appropriate planning horizon for calculating lifetime SS benefits. Here are some other points Larry makes in the article. Ask...

Let me re-ask this question: what happens when no will is probated and a creditor has a claim? In most places there is a list of people who can be appointed as executor (of a will) or administrator (if intestate). This usually starts with any executor named in the will, runs through spouses, variou...

There are a few reasons to change passwords. Since you're using strong passwords and a password manager the most important reason is to keep up with improvements in software and hardware. This does not require frequent changes, every two to five years should be enough, or when you have notice that a...