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Re: Leon Cooperman giving the same advice as Warren

I'm not going to take the advice of anyone who can't see that a TSM index fund is superior to a S&P 500 Index fund. Umm... No. One is not any better then the other. They just follow different indexes with one (SP500) constituting 70% of the other (TSM). No surprise over the long run they have b...
by EmergDoc
Tue Oct 21, 2014 1:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leon Cooperman giving the same advice as Warren
Replies: 38
Views: 2366

Re: Leon Cooperman giving the same advice as Warren

I'm not going to take the advice of anyone who can't see that a TSM index fund is superior to a S&P 500 Index fund.
by EmergDoc
Mon Oct 20, 2014 11:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leon Cooperman giving the same advice as Warren
Replies: 38
Views: 2366

Re: Dry Powder

Who are we trying to kid? It doesn't matter what you do with 2% of your portfolio. Stocks, bonds, gold, cash, boogers. It'll all have about the same overall effect on portfolio growth.
by EmergDoc
Sun Oct 19, 2014 7:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dry Powder
Replies: 49
Views: 3487

Re: 2014 Annual Conference Bogleheads Vegans & Vegetarians

Maybe we can have a Vegan "local chapter." :)
by EmergDoc
Sun Oct 19, 2014 7:13 am
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: 2014 Annual Conference Bogleheads Vegans & Vegetarians
Replies: 3
Views: 392

Re: "I've had it" at work - how often

It happens at least once a month, on my first of three overnight shifts that I work each month. It also happens a lot when I have an evening shift and miss an event with my family. I don't know, maybe twice a month. Not enough that I'm even seriously considering quitting (although maybe that's just ...
by EmergDoc
Sun Oct 19, 2014 7:11 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "I've had it" at work - how often
Replies: 143
Views: 10436

Re: Putting Active Management to the Test

It's fun to see a true believer in active management. I didn't know there were any left. I figured all those active fund investors were just ignorant. My question is how will the results of this change anyone's investing strategy. If 3/4s of his funds beat their benchmark, will someone go after acti...
by EmergDoc
Sun Oct 19, 2014 4:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Putting Active Management to the Test
Replies: 104
Views: 11230

Re: The Final, Definitive Thread on Rebalancing

You're going to kill this forum if you keep writing final, definitive threads. There are only about 10 threads here endless repeated. After you've covered them all, the forum will just die a slow painful death.
by EmergDoc
Sat Oct 18, 2014 10:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Final, Definitive Thread on Rebalancing
Replies: 24
Views: 1803

Re: physician being paid for call, can I set up sep. company

I don't think that qualifies as a separate business especially since the owner of both businesses is exactly the same (you). Ask a pro to be sure. The employers are supposed to be separate and unrelated. For example, in my partnership/practice, I own less than 2% of an LLC. For my blog, I own the wh...
by EmergDoc
Sat Oct 18, 2014 10:05 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: physician being paid for call, can I set up sep. company?
Replies: 5
Views: 985

Re: Any active duty military familiar with TSP?

I have the TSP and roll money INTO it, not out of it. Lowest cost 401(k) in the country. Don't be so quick to get rid of it. It has its issues (limited investments, few distribution options) but you can't beat the price and the G fund is pretty unique.
by EmergDoc
Thu Oct 16, 2014 5:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any active duty military familiar with TSP?
Replies: 19
Views: 858

Re: The SWR on Real Estate Investments

As I clarified, I said the real rate of return would be equal to the nominal inflation rate, say 3%. Cap rates do not measure profit; they measure revenue. It's a rule of thumb that half of rental income will be used for expenses such as repairs, management, and vacancies. So that would leave a rea...
by EmergDoc
Thu Oct 16, 2014 4:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The SWR on Real Estate Investments
Replies: 61
Views: 2298

Re: The SWR on Real Estate Investments

It's unclear to me why one would expect better returns than REITs, once you subtract out the value of your time that you have to put in (and would be an expense a REIT would have to take on in exchange for not taking up any of your time). You don't expect a better return. You expect a less volatile...
by EmergDoc
Thu Oct 16, 2014 4:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The SWR on Real Estate Investments
Replies: 61
Views: 2298

Re: The SWR on Real Estate Investments

If Robert Shiller is to be believed, and I think his data are solid, real estate appreciates at the rate of inflation. So for the term of the mortgage you are losing money on your down payment. Imputed rents cover this carrying cost in a typical region. So for a paid-off property, the value of the ...
by EmergDoc
Wed Oct 15, 2014 11:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The SWR on Real Estate Investments
Replies: 61
Views: 2298

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?

What is the advantage to buy 30 year TIPS from an auction over lets say Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund Investor Shares (VIPSX)? No ER to pay plus you don't have to worry about the effects on you of other investors in the fund selling low, forcing the fund to sell low, and hurting your...
by EmergDoc
Wed Oct 15, 2014 2:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction announced 16 oct: yield=1.10%?
Replies: 89
Views: 6053

Re: The SWR on Real Estate Investments

Is market efficiency necessary for the study to be valid? Shouldn't the impact of the market inefficiencies show up in the data used by the study? Reliable data availability may be a big challenge. The issue is if you are particularly skillful at buying and managing real estate, you can add real va...
by EmergDoc
Wed Oct 15, 2014 2:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The SWR on Real Estate Investments
Replies: 61
Views: 2298

Re: The SWR on Real Estate Investments

So, if you can't take 6% because of that risk, how much can you take? Is it 4% like a stock/bond portfolio, or somewhere in between the net operating income and the 4% rule? To figure that I think you would need to look at actual experienced volatilities in real estate returns - basically do the tr...
by EmergDoc
Wed Oct 15, 2014 2:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The SWR on Real Estate Investments
Replies: 61
Views: 2298

Re: need moral support (kinda)

You've still got a year. While there is no guarantee the market will be higher in a year than it is now, there's a decent chance. The average bear is 8 months long. If this is a bear (it isn't yet), we're about a month into it already. If it ends in 7 more months, then the market climbs sharply for ...
by EmergDoc
Wed Oct 15, 2014 1:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: need moral support (kinda)
Replies: 33
Views: 2875

Re: investing in bear market

With the bear market likely here, Be very careful with assumptions like that. Could be a 5% dip, a 10% dip, a 15% dip, a minor bear market, or a major bear market. You have no idea when it is going to turn, and neither do I. Making your investment plan dependent on knowing the future for success is...
by EmergDoc
Wed Oct 15, 2014 1:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: investing in bear market
Replies: 29
Views: 2236

Re: It's a good day to adhere to your IPS

Today, my 401K purchase will be made. Bummer that I maxed out my 401(k) in the first 8 months of the year! I guess there's always 529s and my solo 401(k), but I was thinking about buying some stuff that I'd been waiting to max out that 401(k) before buying. Funny how many ways there are to time the...
by EmergDoc
Wed Oct 15, 2014 1:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's a good day to adhere to your IPS
Replies: 19
Views: 1763

Re: It's a good day to adhere to your IPS

mpt follower wrote:However, very tempted to rebalance!


My advice from 2008...be patient. There's a good chance next week or next month will be an even better chance to rebalance. If this really is the start of the bear, it'll take a while for the average non-Boglehead to notice and start panicking.
by EmergDoc
Wed Oct 15, 2014 1:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's a good day to adhere to your IPS
Replies: 19
Views: 1763

Re: The SWR on Real Estate Investments

I agree that using an advertised cap rate is foolish. I've found the 55% rule is usually more useful. So someone might be advertising a cap rate 8 property, and I calculate it as a 5. I also agree there is a risk that your calculations are wrong. For example, if you've calculated in $4K a year towar...
by EmergDoc
Wed Oct 15, 2014 1:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The SWR on Real Estate Investments
Replies: 61
Views: 2298

Re: The SWR on Real Estate Investments

Even if you're taking into account these things , 6 percent is still not safe in the long-term. How you are paying for repairs, roofs, plumbing , etc? I'm using the rent money + cash reserves, (also taken into account when calculating the cap rate). If you don't think 6 percent is safe, what do you...
by EmergDoc
Wed Oct 15, 2014 2:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The SWR on Real Estate Investments
Replies: 61
Views: 2298

Re: The SWR on Real Estate Investments

Even if you're taking into account these things , 6 percent is still not safe in the long-term. How you are paying for repairs, roofs, plumbing , etc? I'm using the rent money + cash reserves, (also taken into account when calculating the cap rate). If you don't think 6 percent is safe, what do you...
by EmergDoc
Wed Oct 15, 2014 1:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The SWR on Real Estate Investments
Replies: 61
Views: 2298

Re: The SWR on Real Estate Investments

Even if you're taking into account these things , 6 percent is still not safe in the long-term. How you are paying for repairs, roofs, plumbing , etc? I'm using the rent money + cash reserves, (also taken into account when calculating the cap rate). If you don't think 6 percent is safe, what do you...
by EmergDoc
Wed Oct 15, 2014 1:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The SWR on Real Estate Investments
Replies: 61
Views: 2298

Re: The SWR on Real Estate Investments

I would suggest that you have made a number of assumptions that might not be true. Real estate values are neighborhood dependent. What starts out as a good neighborhood can change, and then values can decrease rather than increase. You may have trouble keeping your property rented. Zero income mont...
by EmergDoc
Wed Oct 15, 2014 1:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The SWR on Real Estate Investments
Replies: 61
Views: 2298

Re: Offered Cash Balance Plan - RED FLAGS? (physician)

We have a cash balance plan. Fees are around 0.4-0.5%. The money is invested in solid mutual funds with reasonable ERs. When I separate or the plan is closed, I'll roll the money into the TSP. I love the idea, but like anything, execution matters. You wouldn't think mutual funds were great if your o...
by EmergDoc
Wed Oct 15, 2014 1:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Offered Cash Balance Plan - RED FLAGS? (physician)
Replies: 16
Views: 855

Re: Help with post-residency personal finance/taxes

Welcome to the forum. Congratulations on your success and wisdom and thank you for being a doctor. 1,2. I think you're doing awesome. I got lost on the house. Did you sell one and buy a new one and came out of the deal with $75K extra? Not bad. I think a great use for that is the 5% student loan, as...
by EmergDoc
Tue Oct 14, 2014 9:28 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help with post-residency personal finance/taxes
Replies: 3
Views: 576

The SWR on Real Estate Investments

It's generally acknowledged that the SWR on a stock and bond portfolio is somewhere in the range of 4%, although very pessimistic/conservative folks think that might be something slightly lower. Although this forum isn't nearly as big on direct or syndicated real estate investments (preferring inste...
by EmergDoc
Tue Oct 14, 2014 9:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The SWR on Real Estate Investments
Replies: 61
Views: 2298

Re: It's a good day to be heavy in REITs

I distinctly remember about a dozen days in late 2008 where REITs went up or down by 5-10% in a single day.
by EmergDoc
Tue Oct 14, 2014 10:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's a good day to be heavy in REITs
Replies: 42
Views: 3968

Re: Relatively new here. What did you do in 2008/09

Most stayed the course. A few started talking about "Plan B". A couple actually bailed out of their stocks, either in a minor way or a big way.

This thread will give you a good idea of the general sentiment here near market bottom:

viewtopic.php?t=32623
by EmergDoc
Tue Oct 14, 2014 1:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Relatively new here. What did you do in 2008/09
Replies: 106
Views: 6701

Re: Long term care insurance sweet spot

The sweet spot is the month before you need it.

I think you're looking for a graph of likelihood of needing it at any given age vs premium. I think it's fair to assume that the actuaries who have this information won't give it to you, but that they did use it to set the premiums.
by EmergDoc
Mon Oct 13, 2014 3:03 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long term care insurance sweet spot
Replies: 5
Views: 711

Re: Sale of house-closing tomorrow, buyer is backing out

That's what earnest money is for. You should have asked for enough to compensate you for this happening. I suggest you take the earnest money and go on a fun trip to help you forget about the extra stress.
by EmergDoc
Mon Oct 13, 2014 2:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sale of house-closing tomorrow, buyer is backing out
Replies: 60
Views: 5049

Re: Retired and end of month checking account balance?

I generally move any balance over $15K to a savings account now. That's enough that I only have to look at the account once a month or so and don't have to worry about ever bouncing a check (or more likely, an automatic payment.) I can't imagine it would be much different when I retire. But I suppos...
by EmergDoc
Mon Oct 13, 2014 2:14 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retired and end of month checking account balance?
Replies: 21
Views: 1841

Re: Cleaning Up Leaves

Chainsaw?
by EmergDoc
Sun Oct 12, 2014 11:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cleaning Up Leaves
Replies: 40
Views: 2987

Re: The Larry Portfolio - Perfect for a 529 Plan?

I'm chuckling to myself. I agree with your idea of aggressive 529 investing. I also agree with using the Utah 529. I do both. However, I discovered you can't put more than 25% into either of the SV funds in the Utah 529. I put 25% into the DFA SV and 25% into the Vanguard SV, but that's the biggest ...
by EmergDoc
Sun Oct 12, 2014 9:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Larry Portfolio - Perfect for a 529 Plan?
Replies: 27
Views: 2384

Re: VMMXX: Finally Pulled the Trigger

Don't feel badly. I beat you by a few years, but keep in mind I went from Prime which pays nothing to Ally Bank which pays 0.85% or so. Not much difference.
by EmergDoc
Sun Oct 12, 2014 6:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VMMXX: Finally Pulled the Trigger
Replies: 29
Views: 3732

Re: Why choose a LifeStrategy Fund?

I mean the vast majority of investors are going to want to become more conservative as they get older. When you wonder why someone thinks differently from you, always consider your assumptions. I've been investing for a little over a decade and haven't become more conservative. I might even be less...
by EmergDoc
Sun Oct 12, 2014 10:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why choose a LifeStrategy Fund?
Replies: 41
Views: 3442

Re: Support that HSAs might not be the best option for you

Your main point has little to do with HSAs and is all about a standard plan vs HDHP. If an HDHP is right for you, then you should go for the HSA. If it's not right for you, then you should use a standard plan with lower out of pocket costs/deductibles etc. That's like someone whose employer pays for...
by EmergDoc
Fri Oct 10, 2014 11:53 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Support that HSAs might not be the best option for you
Replies: 38
Views: 3423

Re: $3000 in Coverdell, what to do with it?

I'd suggest taking an alternative approach. You seem set on not taking much risk because you need the money in 3 years. I'd suggest taking on more risk since it's such a small amount of money and the consequences of loss are so low. If the market is down in 3 years, there's a decent chance it'll be ...
by EmergDoc
Fri Oct 10, 2014 1:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $3000 in Coverdell, what to do with it?
Replies: 5
Views: 453

Re: Lending club interest rate risk

The interest rate risk is nothing compared to the credit risk for these notes.
by EmergDoc
Fri Oct 10, 2014 12:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lending club interest rate risk
Replies: 12
Views: 786

Re: I'm Chuck and I work at Vanguard and Invest in Active Fu

This is dumb... I worked at a hedge fund, and I can tell you the smartest guys are not at Vanguard, they are at a mega hedge fund. I don't want the smartest guys managing my money, I want the luckiest ones. But since I don't know who those will be, I'll settle for the ones who skim the least off th...
by EmergDoc
Thu Oct 09, 2014 12:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Chuck and I work at Vanguard and Invest in Active Funds
Replies: 44
Views: 7257

Re: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?

Looks like we're down 4% from the peak. We were last here in....wait for it.....August 2014. The drops in January 2014 and in July 2014 were bigger. Don't remember those? You might not remember this one either.
by EmergDoc
Thu Oct 09, 2014 12:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 428
Views: 27810

Re: Wife Expecting, Down to One Income Source

We dropped to one income when I was a resident. We saved a little less after that until I became an attending. Some things are more important than retiring a few years earlier. No regrets. A stay at home parent not only saves a lot of money (income and payroll taxes, child care, transportation, work...
by EmergDoc
Thu Oct 09, 2014 11:31 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wife Expecting, Down to One Income Source
Replies: 116
Views: 8014

Re: real estate vs s&p 500

I am 29 years old & have 250k to invest .... Should I invest long term in a condo for rental income & capital appreciation OR in an index fund tracking s&p 500 Neither. Condos are often terrible real estate investments and the S&P 500 tracking index funds are generally inferior to T...
by EmergDoc
Thu Oct 09, 2014 2:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: real estate vs s&p 500
Replies: 8
Views: 1475

Re: What have you done to cut costs this year?

Well, I know this is a board filled with multi-millionares that come here to discuss tax/fee avoidance strategies :), but for those of us not quite there yet, One of my goals is to never have to cut my costs. I hope to increase my standard of living every year of my life. It helps if you start real...
by EmergDoc
Thu Oct 09, 2014 2:26 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What have you done to cut costs this year?
Replies: 105
Views: 8067

Re: % of income spent on life insurance

My wife and I were just approved for two policies. I'm 31 and she is 29. We are looking at 30 year term, $1.5 million for me and $1 million for her, which I believe is reasonable. We have one child who was just born. Right now our combined salaries, excluding bonuses and stock, is $204k per year (1...
by EmergDoc
Thu Oct 09, 2014 2:24 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: % of income spent on life insurance
Replies: 19
Views: 1395

Re: I'm Chuck and I work at Vanguard and Invest in Active Fu

I own actively managed funds. DFA SV, Vanguard TIPS Fund, Bridgeway Ultra Small Company Market Fund, etc. Lots of Vanguard bond funds are actively managed. Low cost matters much more than passive vs active. It isn't that active management doesn't work. It's that it doesn't work well enough to overco...
by EmergDoc
Thu Oct 09, 2014 2:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Chuck and I work at Vanguard and Invest in Active Funds
Replies: 44
Views: 7257

Re: When people put all their eggs in the wrong basket

Great post, thanks for sharing the OP. When I think of "putting all my eggs in one basket and watching it closely" I think of investing in a business you own 100% of or investing in a few rental properties, not single stock risk. That's just idiotic. Remember what Buffett means when he say...
by EmergDoc
Wed Oct 08, 2014 1:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When people put all their eggs in the wrong basket
Replies: 215
Views: 20076

Re: Backdoor Roth w/ large SEP IRA - What would you do?

I would like to start performing backdoor Roth IRA contributions this year. However, I have a pro-rata problem. I have a large SEP IRA from my previous work as an independent contractor. I have a couple of options. 1) Perform backdoor Roth IRA contribution and pay the "pro rata" tax on my...
by EmergDoc
Wed Oct 08, 2014 1:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Backdoor Roth w/ large SEP IRA - What would you do?
Replies: 14
Views: 617

Re: Why Wouldn't You Tilt To Small Value?

I am someone who tilts, however I would argue that the equity style box should not be used to show you are undiversified! Do you realize that how they are defining Large/Medium/Small is largely arbitrary? Market weighting is the natural starting point, no question. And just because 75% of the compa...
by EmergDoc
Wed Oct 08, 2014 1:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Wouldn't You Tilt To Small Value?
Replies: 52
Views: 2901

Re: Why Wouldn't You Tilt To Small Value?

Two reasons in my view:

1) Lower costs to not tilt
2) It's possible for SV to underperform in the long run.

Tracking error isn't a huge deal to me, especially since my tilt isn't massive. The additional complexity also isn't a huge deal.
by EmergDoc
Wed Oct 08, 2014 1:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Wouldn't You Tilt To Small Value?
Replies: 52
Views: 2901
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