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Re: Vanguard Lifestrategy "Aggressive"

"You're not taking any of the money out ... so you don't need to buffer your portfolio with bonds" - YES "You're not planning on taking any of the money out ... so you don't plan to need to buffer your portfolio with bonds" - YES You're not planning on taking any of the money out...
by Elbowman
Wed Apr 01, 2015 7:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Lifestrategy "Aggressive"
Replies: 13
Views: 1365

Re: Should a BH investor never use futures/options?

Just like active management, options are a true zero-sum game, meaning the expected return of all parties after transaction costs is always negative. This is not mentioned enough! You are playing a negative-sum game (after costs) against professionals. That should be all you need to know to discard...
by Elbowman
Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should a BH investor never use futures/options?
Replies: 70
Views: 4484

Re: Math majors needed in here for loan interest rates thoug

I'd like to assume for the scenario that stocks will perform at 5% or better, basically better than the interest of an auto loan. Yes, if you start with the unreasonable assumption that you can count on stock returns being greater than 5% for the duration of a car loan , you will arrive at the conc...
by Elbowman
Sun Mar 22, 2015 1:08 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Math majors needed in here for loan interest rates thoughts
Replies: 36
Views: 2220

Re: What's Wrong With This Portfolio ?

+1 for "good enough". I think the bar for unsolicited advice should be pretty high, especially for people you care to maintain a relationship with. If the portfolio was 50% hedge funds and 50% whole life, then yes, I'd say something. I'd probably even venture a cautious comment if the enti...
by Elbowman
Mon Mar 09, 2015 8:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's Wrong With This Portfolio ?
Replies: 6
Views: 642

Re: Will you buy an Apple Watch?

Not until I see a "killer app".
by Elbowman
Mon Mar 09, 2015 8:29 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Will you buy an Apple Watch?
Replies: 355
Views: 22119

Re: IRA target fund

To add to what RadAudit said, the moral of the story is not "if the target date fund won't give me 8%, I'll find something that will". TD funds are reasonably aggressive in terms of risk reward balance, and if that is not enough to meet your goals given your current savings it is much safe...
by Elbowman
Sat Feb 21, 2015 11:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: IRA target fund
Replies: 6
Views: 603

Re: Buffett/Hedge Fund Bet - Protege Partners' Excuses!

Taylor Larimore wrote:Gabriel:

Thank you for the link showing that it is dangerous to make a long-term bet against an index fund.

Best wishes.
Taylor
1) Never get involved in a land war in Asia.
2) Never make a long-term bet against an index fund.
3) Never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line.
by Elbowman
Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett/Hedge Fund Bet - Protege Partners' Excuses!
Replies: 34
Views: 2664

Re: larry portfolio vs 3 fund portfolio last 2 years

Hopefully you will be repaid in the next crash!
by Elbowman
Tue Dec 30, 2014 3:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: larry portfolio vs 3 fund portfolio last 2 years
Replies: 16
Views: 2656

Re: Only bonds in tax-advantaged accounts,but what about gro

The tax efficiency guide does not state to put only bonds in tax-advantaged accounts. Many people read it that way, but ALL asset classes can go into tax-advantaged accounts. +1. You would prefer to have everything in tax-advantaged accounts (assuming you are retiring after 59), TSM and TISM are ju...
by Elbowman
Tue Dec 30, 2014 3:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Only bonds in tax-advantaged accounts,but what about growth?
Replies: 8
Views: 1321

Re: 401K changing Pimco Tot Ret to VG Int Term Bond Index. O

Gort wrote:Is VBIIX a good core holding?
Yes. A lot of the people here who think TBM is too heavy in treasuries actually like VBIIX more.
by Elbowman
Sun Oct 19, 2014 8:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401K changing Pimco Tot Ret to VG Int Term Bond Index. OK?
Replies: 17
Views: 1371

Re: The only risk of leverage is selling at the bottom

What does skill have to do with a margin call?
by Elbowman
Tue Sep 23, 2014 12:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The only risk of leverage is selling at the bottom
Replies: 46
Views: 1686

Re: Are you using a Martingale strategy and don't know it?

Isn't rebalancing in a crashing market martingale-ish? You keep doubling down, and it will work every time until your country or economic system finishes its run and things actually go to zero? At least for domestic investing, with TISM that may be even less likely. The big difference, I suppose, is...
by Elbowman
Tue Sep 23, 2014 12:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you using a Martingale strategy and don't know it?
Replies: 28
Views: 2251

Re: Vangaurd STAR

A Vanguard Total Stock Market investment seems like a smarter bet, yet again I'm clueless so any advice is welcome. Per $1000 invested in TSM, you can expect a whopping six to seven dollars per month return. It takes an enormous amount of passively invested money to replace the income you get from ...
by Elbowman
Wed Sep 10, 2014 12:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vangaurd STAR
Replies: 31
Views: 2159

Re: S&P 500 Equal Weight Index

I believe the critique is Equal Weight Indices behave a lot like mid-cap cap-weighted indices, but with a meaningfully higher ER (0.4 vs 0.09). Using the forum search in the top right you can see the considerable discussion that has already been had on this topic. https://www.google.com/search?sites...
by Elbowman
Mon Aug 25, 2014 10:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Equal Weight Index
Replies: 10
Views: 982

Re: 3.3% Vanguard 10 year CD

ArthurO wrote:I refuse to loose my purchasing power due to inflation.
ArthurO wrote:I refuse to loose even a penny
You refuse? You must be pretty important, the market doesn't ask for my permission when it sets risk/return curves.
by Elbowman
Sat Aug 09, 2014 3:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3.3% Vanguard 10 year CD
Replies: 99
Views: 10930

Re: Affording a 1.3 million home?

This is OT, but every personal finance book I've read implores you not to hold your employer's stock any longer than you have to.
by Elbowman
Wed Aug 06, 2014 7:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Affording a 1.3 million home?
Replies: 122
Views: 19844

Re: Taxable Accounts - Am I thinking about this the right wa

Am I missing something basic here? I admit I skimmed some of this, but I think so. Say this very high earner was in CA. His/her marginal tax bracket would be approaching 50%. For the sake of simplicity, say he/she had the choice to put everything in taxable or tax deferred. At retirement the differ...
by Elbowman
Tue Jul 22, 2014 8:05 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Taxable Accounts - Am I thinking about this the right way?
Replies: 30
Views: 3001

Re: Taxable Accounts - Am I thinking about this the right wa

Am I missing something basic here? I admit I skimmed some of this, but I think so. Say this very high earner was in CA. His/her marginal tax bracket would be approaching 50%. For the sake of simplicity, say he/she had the choice to put everything in taxable or tax deferred. At retirement the differ...
by Elbowman
Tue Jul 22, 2014 5:33 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Taxable Accounts - Am I thinking about this the right way?
Replies: 30
Views: 3001

Re: if savings rate is most important.....

+1 for time. I like to think of it like this: FinalAmount = SavingsRate * EverythingElse ^ Time . If I didn't know anything about those variables I would rank their importance as: Time > EverythingElse > SavingsRate . However, increasing your SavingsRate is easier than increasing your EverythingElse...
by Elbowman
Thu Jun 05, 2014 8:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: if savings rate is most important.....
Replies: 24
Views: 2382

Re: Trying to Understand Corporate Bond Risk in Wellesley

If 60% of the 78% equals 47% of the Wellesley fund, should I expect that 47% to lose 50% of its value if the equity markets lose 50% of their value? No, you should not expect corporate bonds to lose as much of their value as equities. If I were you I'd start by looking at Vanguard's Intermediate-Te...
by Elbowman
Fri May 30, 2014 8:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Trying to Understand Corporate Bond Risk in Wellesley
Replies: 44
Views: 3061

Re: Least tax efficient

REIT will probably incur the most taxes. Also, you can replace your nominal bonds with munis and your TIPS with I Bonds (slowly). I don't know of a tax efficient replacement for REIT.
by Elbowman
Wed May 21, 2014 9:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Least tax efficient
Replies: 8
Views: 1325

Re: Seeking Constructive Advice on Whole Life for High Incom

Hah, its been a while since I've seen one of these posts. "I've decided to shoot myself in the foot. Now I know there are a lot of foot shooting haters on this forum, and I've considered your arguments so you don't need to repeat them. As for the rest of you, what caliber and angle would you su...
by Elbowman
Fri May 16, 2014 1:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking Constructive Advice on Whole Life for High Income Ea
Replies: 25
Views: 1708

Re: "Smart Beta" ?

So my Vanguard SCV fund means I have a stake in the Strategic Beta universe? I guess I need to start going to some cocktail parties!
by Elbowman
Wed May 14, 2014 3:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Smart Beta" ?
Replies: 12
Views: 1283

Re: The Importance of Sequencing in Withdraw Plans

I don't know what index fund you are using, but assuming it's a stock fund, I'd rerun your numbers using the various Vanguard lifecycle funds in place of the stock fund. This will check if the reduced losses of the active funds are just from reduced risk.
by Elbowman
Mon May 12, 2014 7:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Importance of Sequencing in Withdraw Plans
Replies: 9
Views: 1165

Re: Poll: Would you EVER recommend 100% equity?

No. With most of the experts I've read recommending no more than 80/20, I'd feel irresponsible recommending 100/0. Perhaps people are focusing too much on "ever" and not enough on "recommend". I can imagine situations where I'd go 100/0, but I still wouldn't be comfortable sugges...
by Elbowman
Fri Apr 25, 2014 8:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Would you EVER recommend 100% equity?
Replies: 136
Views: 29671

Re: Help with a put option, can i exercise it?

If you take the title of this thread, and enter it in Google, the first result will tell you want you need to know.
The advise you got from Ladygeek, when judged by its long term impact, is probably the best investing advise you have received thus far in life.
by Elbowman
Tue Apr 15, 2014 8:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with a put option, can i exercise it?
Replies: 13
Views: 434

Re: Available Funds in 401K - Opinions please

The most important information for this decision is the expense ratio your plan is charging for each of those funds. If you can find those, we can help you :) .
by Elbowman
Tue Apr 15, 2014 1:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Available Funds in 401K - Opinions please
Replies: 8
Views: 738

Re: 20+ Year Treasury Bond

I think some people who use the Permanent Portfolio might hold that. But they are expecting volatility from it, not safety. With a duration that long you really could see a stock like crash if interest rates increased just a couple of percent, and holding for the long term is easier said than done.
by Elbowman
Thu Apr 10, 2014 8:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 20+ Year Treasury Bond
Replies: 6
Views: 754

Re: How to invest my "Emergency Fund"

+1 to b4nash's suggestion, particularly the I Bonds (careful though, you must wait a year before withdrawing) and FDIC insured CDs. Basically things with no risk of loss of principal. Also you mentioned that the biggest emergency you foresee is needing to get a new car. Two things about that... 1) E...
by Elbowman
Wed Apr 09, 2014 9:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to invest my "Emergency Fund"
Replies: 20
Views: 2982

Re: 401k Investment Options

Your current 401(k) elections are not great, but you are fortunate to have a great US stock option (VINIX) and a pretty good bond option (BMOIX). If you use your Roth IRA to hold the Extended US Stock Market (VEXMX, a 4:1 ratio of Institutional index to Extended index recreates the "total"...
by Elbowman
Wed Apr 09, 2014 2:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401k Investment Options
Replies: 12
Views: 574

Re: Random Walk Down Wall Street

The less history you know, the more susceptible you are to the idea that "this time it's different".
by Elbowman
Fri Mar 14, 2014 11:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Random Walk Down Wall Street
Replies: 27
Views: 2575

Re: Why is index investing better considering these funds

You're going to spend tens of thousands of hours, perhaps a hundred thousand hours of your life working to make money. You need to take the tiniest fraction of that, perhaps five to ten hours, and read a book to find out what you should do with the money you are working so hard to make. I suggest &q...
by Elbowman
Tue Mar 11, 2014 9:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is index investing better considering these funds
Replies: 23
Views: 3159

Re: 25 YR Old Just Starting Out-Help with 401K/Investing

Watch the fixed income allocation. You could easily live to 100. I strongly encourage you to move to 100% equity allocation ASAP. You will certainly--certainly--thank me in 50 years. Look at any DJIA chart for the last 100 years if you doubt me. And research the number of ten year periods in which ...
by Elbowman
Tue Mar 04, 2014 1:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 25 YR Old Just Starting Out-Help with 401K/Investing
Replies: 11
Views: 1713

Re: Private Equity Individual Stock Holdings

Are there papers suggesting a single Private Equity firm's holdings will mirror the total distribution of Private Equity holdings much better than the stock market?
by Elbowman
Mon Dec 30, 2013 5:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Private Equity Individual Stock Holdings
Replies: 4
Views: 282

Re: Poll: "Bonds are for safety (True or False)".

Thanks for the replies. I put the poll up because I often see that statement as if it were dogma. Of course, I like to challenge it then! ;) My opinion is that while bonds are indeed a safer part of my portfolio, they are not "for" safety. That's what bank accounts and CDs are for. Vangua...
by Elbowman
Thu Dec 26, 2013 3:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: "Bonds are for safety (True or False)".
Replies: 63
Views: 4170

Re: Order by tax efficiency: VWO, VSS, VBR

Thank you everyone for your responses, they are very helpful! You've confirmed that my VWO in taxable is probably OK, shown me how to compute this for myself in the future, and the numbers you've found are close enough to reaffirm my belief that decisions like this will probably be lost in the noise...
by Elbowman
Tue Dec 24, 2013 2:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Order by tax efficiency: VWO, VSS, VBR
Replies: 8
Views: 1064

Order by tax efficiency: VWO, VSS, VBR

Hi Bogleheads, So I have five funds in my portfolio: total stock market (VTI), small-cap value (VBR), international small-caps (VSS), emerging markets (VWO), and total bond market (BND). My question is which order to place them in my taxable account. I assume TSM first and TBM last, and after TSM I ...
by Elbowman
Mon Dec 23, 2013 12:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Order by tax efficiency: VWO, VSS, VBR
Replies: 8
Views: 1064

Re: Portfolio Help: 26 and Pregnant

Congratulations! 1) Utah does seem to be one of the favorites on this board. And if you choose the age based plan you can just put everything in that, and don't have to worry about I Bonds, etc. 2) If you have a proper IPS you should never really be confused as to what to do with extra cash. Just in...
by Elbowman
Wed Dec 18, 2013 12:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Help: 26 and Pregnant
Replies: 14
Views: 1262

Re: 28 y/o Investor With 1M Portfolio Needs Advice

pkcrafter wrote:No, 100% equity is not a good idea, especially after the current market run-up.
+1. I'd be 70/30 max, 60/40 maybe.
by Elbowman
Fri Dec 13, 2013 2:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 28 y/o Investor With 1M Portfolio Needs Advice
Replies: 31
Views: 5113

Re: Good article on style premium investing & AQR new fund

Finally, assume behavioral stories go away--then you want to be the first to exploit them, capturing big one time gains as spreads narrow. Just don't want to be the last one. I know this is only one of many many arguments you made, but... isn't that terrible investing advice? Doesn't that imply tim...
by Elbowman
Wed Dec 11, 2013 1:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good article on style premium investing & AQR new fund
Replies: 86
Views: 9060

Re: Bond question

Their argument was that they are young and can take the risks. Yes, you are young and you can afford to take risks. That is why it is reasonable to put 70-80% of your portfolio into an asset class that can lose 50% of its value in a year. However, at no point in your investing life do you want to t...
by Elbowman
Fri Nov 15, 2013 7:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond question
Replies: 28
Views: 1388

Re: Another note from my brother, the armchair economist

Riverstwo wrote:As for me Im just gonna
watch it unfold in time, a little taper here and add in some derivatives with smoke and mirrors and sham-wow.
While most of his advice is sound, I would avoid purchasing a ShamWow.
by Elbowman
Mon Nov 11, 2013 3:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Another note from my brother, the armchair economist
Replies: 24
Views: 2614

Re: 100 Percent Equity Asset Allocation

Question: Given high risk tolerance for young investors, is there any non-psychological reason not to adopt a full equity AA for their retirement accounts? Yes. Call it "expected utility". Here is the classic example: say some billionaire offered you a choice; he will either give you $10,...
by Elbowman
Wed Nov 06, 2013 8:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 100 Percent Equity Asset Allocation
Replies: 36
Views: 4789

Re: Maximizing ROI - Three Fund Portfolio

Risk is not an issue with me in the slightest. Interesting. Here is a question: say you met some eccentric billionaire who wanted to toy with your emotions, and he offered you either a guaranteed $10,000,000, or a coin flip where you win $25,000,000 on heads, and get nothing on tail. Which would yo...
by Elbowman
Fri Oct 18, 2013 8:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Maximizing ROI - Three Fund Portfolio
Replies: 12
Views: 991

Re: Maximizing ROI - Three Fund Portfolio

Some people may disagree, but here is what I believe to be a basic tenet underlying Boglehead investing theory: When in doubt, assume you are close to average, and then adopt a strategy that would work well for the average person. A priori you more likely to be average than anything else in particul...
by Elbowman
Fri Oct 18, 2013 8:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Maximizing ROI - Three Fund Portfolio
Replies: 12
Views: 991

Re: 26 year old - looking for advice

The recommendation for emergency funds is 6-12 months worth of expenses. I would total up necessary monthly expenses (rent + car + insurance + basic living expenses + minimum student loan payments) and keep six times that amount in your emergency fund. I doubt your current EF is unnecessarily high.
by Elbowman
Mon Sep 09, 2013 2:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 26 year old - looking for advice
Replies: 9
Views: 708

Re: bad time for bonds?

In general, its a bad idea to change your investments based on current events. A Three Fund Portfolio is going to do a find job over your lifetime, and your biggest risk is you will mess it up through tinkering. That being said, it wont be the end of the world if you use a stable value fund, short ...
by Elbowman
Thu Sep 05, 2013 10:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bad time for bonds?
Replies: 37
Views: 3997

Re: bad time for bonds?

In general, its a bad idea to change your investments based on current events. A Three Fund Portfolio is going to do a fine job over your lifetime, and your biggest risk is you will mess it up through tinkering. That being said, it wont be the end of the world if you use a stable value fund, short t...
by Elbowman
Thu Sep 05, 2013 9:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bad time for bonds?
Replies: 37
Views: 3997
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