Search found 62 matches

by Dr_McGarvey
Sat Jul 04, 2015 4:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TSP Monthly, Quarterly and Annual Returns -- June 2015
Replies: 3
Views: 744

Re: TSP Monthly, Quarterly and Annual Returns -- June 2015

Thanks for the compliment. What I meant was adjusting for the dividends in the non- TSP Funds. Given the effort required to address each fund through each period, that was more calculation than I wanted to do. I'd be happy to see someone else expend the effort so we can all see the results, of course.
by Dr_McGarvey
Sat Jul 04, 2015 2:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TSP Monthly, Quarterly and Annual Returns -- June 2015
Replies: 3
Views: 744

TSP Monthly, Quarterly and Annual Returns -- June 2015

The latest gathering of my summary tables and charts may be seen at: http://www.flickr.com/photos/ghost_of_artaud/sets/72157625479558116/ (I realize this is the same URL I used in my previous messages -- as before, I've replaced the slides there with the most current data.) Some Observations Let’s s...
by Dr_McGarvey
Mon Jun 01, 2015 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP G vs. F
Replies: 8
Views: 723

Re: TSP G vs. F

For what it's worth:

Here's a plot of the G- and F-Funds Net Asset Values (NAV's) since June 2003, plus some trend lines (derived from a 5th-order regression formula). The G-Fund trend is remarkably close, while the F-Fund trend is open to question.

https://goo.gl/6yk68X
by Dr_McGarvey
Tue May 19, 2015 8:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Proposed Changes in the Thrift Savings Plan (TSP)
Replies: 4
Views: 863

Proposed Changes in the Thrift Savings Plan (TSP)

To alert others to a new piece appearing in today's Washington Post : http://goo.gl/4djZUX " The Thrift Savings Plan is preparing to extend its services to participants by reaching out to them about important decisions for their retirement savings, maybe to the point of providing financial advi...
by Dr_McGarvey
Sun Apr 05, 2015 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP Monthly, Quarterly and Annual Returns -- March, 2015
Replies: 9
Views: 1649

Re: TSP Monthly, Quarterly and Annual Returns -- March, 2015

I provide these data on changes in major market indices as a quantitative background for whatever changes may have occurred with the TSP Funds' NAV changes, and nothing more. (My excerpts came from Marketwatch as well as Standard & Poors , as the links would suggest. If there's a problem the rea...
by Dr_McGarvey
Sun Apr 05, 2015 7:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP Monthly, Quarterly and Annual Returns -- March, 2015
Replies: 9
Views: 1649

Re: TSP Monthly, Quarterly and Annual Returns -- March, 2015

Thanks for your expressed appreciation, neutics. I'm happy to hear some of it was of good use to you.
by Dr_McGarvey
Tue Mar 31, 2015 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP Monthly, Quarterly and Annual Returns -- March, 2015
Replies: 9
Views: 1649

TSP Monthly, Quarterly and Annual Returns -- March, 2015

The latest gathering of my summary tables and charts may be seen at: http://www.flickr.com/photos/ghost_of_artaud/sets/72157625479558116/ (I realize this is the same URL I used in my previous messages -- as before, I've replaced the slides there with the most current data.) Some Observations and Tho...
by Dr_McGarvey
Mon Feb 09, 2015 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Performance of TSP funds
Replies: 39
Views: 2323

Re: Performance of TSP funds

I call attention to my continuing series on the TSP, analyses and graphs which I construct in Excel.

http://goo.gl/b7GzYb
by Dr_McGarvey
Mon Feb 02, 2015 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Federal TSP Investment Allocations
Replies: 16
Views: 4875

Re: Federal TSP Investment Allocations

I call your attention to my continuing series of theoretical TSP allocation histories:
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=154361
by Dr_McGarvey
Wed Dec 31, 2014 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP Monthly, Quarterly and Annual Returns -- December, 2014
Replies: 0
Views: 551

TSP Monthly, Quarterly and Annual Returns -- December, 2014

The latest gathering of my summary tables and charts may be seen at: http://www.flickr.com/photos/ghost_of_artaud/sets/72157625479558116/ (I realize this is the same URL I used in my previous messages -- as before, I've replaced the slides there with the most current data.) Some Observations and Tho...
by Dr_McGarvey
Tue Dec 09, 2014 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is There An Actively Managed Fund Cheaper Than An Index Fund
Replies: 25
Views: 2388

Is There An Actively Managed Fund Cheaper Than An Index Fund

Unless managed by someone with overriding eleemosynary instincts, I don't think so. But I put the question on behalf of someone else and invite reasonable replies. Thanks, Bpgleheads.
by Dr_McGarvey
Wed Oct 01, 2014 1:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP Monthly, Quarterly and Annual Returns -- September, 2014
Replies: 3
Views: 732

TSP Monthly, Quarterly and Annual Returns -- September, 2014

The latest gathering of my summary tables and charts may be seen at: http://www.flickr.com/photos/ghost_of_artaud/sets/72157625479558116/ (I realize this is the same URL I used in my previous messages -- as before, I've replaced the slides there with the most current data.) Some Observations and Tho...
by Dr_McGarvey
Thu Aug 07, 2014 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New VG Performance Charts
Replies: 17
Views: 2211

Re: New VG Performance Charts

Not seeing a ten-year option anywhere on my pages. In fact, the "Custom" option specifically says "... within the past five years."
by Dr_McGarvey
Fri Jul 04, 2014 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Managed Payout Fund (VPGDX)
Replies: 40
Views: 3612

Re: Vanguard Managed Payout Fund (VPGDX)

I have held shares in this fund since its inception in 2008. I believe there's an important point or two to be made here which have thus far not been addressed in this thread. Be advised: (1) The "4% Rule" - Though Vanguard announced this protocol this year, one thing has not changed. The ...
by Dr_McGarvey
Mon Jun 30, 2014 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP Monthly, Quarterly, and Annual Returns - June, 2014
Replies: 3
Views: 831

TSP Monthly, Quarterly, and Annual Returns - June, 2014

The latest gathering of my summary tables and charts may be seen at: http://www.flickr.com/photos/ghost_of_artaud/sets/72157625479558116/ (I realize this is the same URL I used in my previous messages -- as before, I've replaced the slides there with the most current data.) Overall Market Impression...
by Dr_McGarvey
Sat Jun 21, 2014 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GoogleFinance price quotes for TSP Funds
Replies: 12
Views: 2764

Re: GoogleFinance price quotes for TSP Funds

Nice work, Hoppy! Thanks a lot.
by Dr_McGarvey
Tue Apr 01, 2014 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP Monthly, Quarterly, and Annual Returns - March, 2014
Replies: 2
Views: 417

Re: TSP Monthly, Quarterly, and Annual Returns - March, 2014

Thanks for your appreciative comments, red5. As to the predictive value of a seemingly very overfit 5th-order regression model to future events, my suspicion is: not much. While I take for granted the slow but inexorably positive change to be seen with the G-Fund (it will never , we are led to belie...
by Dr_McGarvey
Tue Apr 01, 2014 7:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP Monthly, Quarterly, and Annual Returns - March, 2014
Replies: 2
Views: 417

TSP Monthly, Quarterly, and Annual Returns - March, 2014

The latest gathering of my summary tables and charts may be seen at: http://www.flickr.com/photos/ghost_of_artaud/sets/72157625479558116/ (I realize this is the same URL I used in my previous messages -- as before, I've replaced the slides there with the most current data.) My rough impressions of t...
by Dr_McGarvey
Wed Jan 22, 2014 6:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard Tax Form Release Schedule (1099-R available now)
Replies: 23
Views: 1969

Re: Vanguard Tax Form Release Schedule (1099-R available now

My 1099-B was also posted this morning. A bit of confusion arose in these data, however. Given that some of my share sales were from "non-covered" periods, I note that Vanguard's posting of my cost basis for these shares differed from my own cost basis for those shares (I am using a "...
by Dr_McGarvey
Sun Jan 12, 2014 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is the TSP L2050 fund aggressive enough?
Replies: 7
Views: 2310

Re: Is the TSP L2050 fund aggressive enough?

And let's not forget, you're free to change the mixture at any time (within "switching limits", of course). While a C-, S-, and I-Fund mixture has been looking great over the current bull market, an "equal-portion" (of the five major funds) represents the more traditional 60/40 e...
by Dr_McGarvey
Fri Jan 03, 2014 12:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP Monthly, Quarterly, and Annual Returns - December, 2013
Replies: 8
Views: 927

Re: TSP Monthly, Quarterly, and Annual Returns - December, 2

tigermilk wrote:Your L2050 % change is off. $11.1441 to $14.0634 is a 26.2% gain, not that 40%+ you have. Looks like a cell gone haywire!


Thanks for spotting my error, tigermilk -- I appreciate your scrutiny. I have amended both my formula and the incorrect value.
by Dr_McGarvey
Wed Jan 01, 2014 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP Monthly, Quarterly, and Annual Returns - December, 2013
Replies: 8
Views: 927

TSP Monthly, Quarterly, and Annual Returns - December, 2013

The latest gathering of my summary tables and charts may be seen at: http://www.flickr.com/photos/ghost_of_artaud/sets/72157625479558116/ (I realize this is the same URL I used in my previous messages -- as before, I've replaced the slides there with the most current data.) My rough impressions of t...
by Dr_McGarvey
Tue Dec 17, 2013 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can TSP G fund be used as liability matching portfolio?
Replies: 4
Views: 405

Re: Can TSP G fund be used as liability matching portfolio?

And let's not forget the incredibly cheap expense ratio associated with the TSP G-Fund (or any TSP Fund).
by Dr_McGarvey
Mon Oct 28, 2013 6:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Army First Lieutenant unwilling to open TSP account
Replies: 71
Views: 5784

Re: Army First Lieutenant unwilling to open TSP account

Sorry, but let me humbly suggest the following: rational arguments are not providing her with sufficient motivation to contribute to a TSP account -- despite its numerous advantages and features. Unless she's provided an alternative specific plan, I conclude her reasons are more psychological than p...
by Dr_McGarvey
Sat Oct 26, 2013 7:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long Term Care Policy Poll
Replies: 42
Views: 3001

Re: Long Term Care Policy Poll

Got mine as a Fed when they first offered it, and at 65 still have it...
by Dr_McGarvey
Tue Oct 01, 2013 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: On the Thrift Savings Plan: Some Observations, 9/30/2013
Replies: 7
Views: 1051

Re: On the Thrift Savings Plan: Some Observations, 9/30/201

In some of those comparisons, it looks like the OP left out dividends. The TSP funds do not distribute dividends. For example, the C Fund did not beat the S&P 500 by 2.5% over the last 12 months. It's typically within about 10 bp. The TSP funds do regularly beat their benchmarks. Go to this pag...
by Dr_McGarvey
Tue Oct 01, 2013 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: On the Thrift Savings Plan: Some Observations, 9/30/2013
Replies: 7
Views: 1051

Re: On the Thrift Savings Plan: Some Observations, 9/30/201

Of course, I don't need a regression model to look at the fluctuations in the G-Fund. I just thought it was an unbelievably neat fit. As to portent, I cannot say. It is presented here for any amusement and insight which it might offer.
by Dr_McGarvey
Tue Oct 01, 2013 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: On the Thrift Savings Plan: Some Observations, 9/30/2013
Replies: 7
Views: 1051

On the Thrift Savings Plan: Some Observations, 9/30/2013

The latest gathering of my summary tables and charts may be seen at: http://www.flickr.com/photos/ghost_of_artaud/sets/72157625479558116/ (I realize this is the same URL I used in my previous messages -- as before, I've replaced the slides there with the most current data.) My rough impressions of t...
by Dr_McGarvey
Tue Sep 17, 2013 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP Lazy Porfolio with 4 funds
Replies: 41
Views: 5112

Re: TSP Lazy Porfolio with 4 funds

Thanks Dr_McGarvey, that's very interesting information. Admittedly using an easy to remember allocation including an extra helping of the S fund, I use the following target AA for 75% equities within my TSP: G: 10% F: 15% I: 20% S: 25% C: 30% That said, I am in sharp contrast to the majority of my...
by Dr_McGarvey
Mon Sep 16, 2013 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP Lazy Porfolio with 4 funds
Replies: 41
Views: 5112

Re: TSP Lazy Porfolio with 4 funds

You may wish to examine the results of a theoretical long-term asset model testing that I've been conducting for over a decade:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/ghost_of_artaud/sets/72157625479558116/ [link fixed by admin LadyGeek]
by Dr_McGarvey
Tue Aug 06, 2013 11:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Honda CRV or Subaru Outback?
Replies: 63
Views: 19050

Re: Honda CRV or Subaru Outback?

I am the original owner of a 1997 Honda CR-V, and remain very pleased with it. It has held up well through a number of winters -- even for being parked outdoors. I confess that I was not pleased with the stylistic impact that the Nissan Murano had on the field, producing ever more "jellybean&qu...
by Dr_McGarvey
Tue Jul 30, 2013 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using Managed Payout funds to mimic Pension Annuity payment
Replies: 19
Views: 1948

Re: Using Managed Payout funds to mimic Pension Annuity paym

These are all sensible comments. For starters, note that the minimum purchase is $25,000, not $10,000. Secondly, a putative 5% return is not, as I argued, quite so simply calculated (although in fact Vanguard reports my personal VPGDX 5-year rate of return was 5.7%; I just have to take their word fo...
by Dr_McGarvey
Tue Jul 30, 2013 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using Managed Payout funds to mimic Pension Annuity payment
Replies: 19
Views: 1948

Re: Using Managed Payout funds to mimic Pension Annuity paym

I got in VPGDX in May, 2008 when the NAV was $20. Five years later, it has never returned to that NAV (yesterday closing @ $18.65). That was a rude shock. A lot of funds have more than recovered from 2008. A couple of other things to be aware of: (a) the bulk (70%+) of each month's payout is stated ...
by Dr_McGarvey
Sat Jun 29, 2013 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) Returns as of June, 2013
Replies: 10
Views: 1217

Re: Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) Returns as of June, 2013

Professor Emeritus wrote:What an excellent and helpful piece. I did not see a line reflecting real returns after inflation. Do you do that calculation?


An excellent idea, but there is no effort here to calculate post-inflation returns and I do not anticipate any in the foreseeable future.
by Dr_McGarvey
Sat Jun 29, 2013 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) Returns as of June, 2013
Replies: 10
Views: 1217

Re: Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) Returns as of June, 2013

As another measure of changes in the G-Fund, one I like to watch is the time required for its NAV to advance by a penny. Some time ago, only a week was typically required; more recently, it required almost three weeks to make that distance. Daily changes had been on the order of .0005, but indeed, a...
by Dr_McGarvey
Sat Jun 29, 2013 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) Returns as of June, 2013
Replies: 10
Views: 1217

Re: Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) Returns as of June, 2013

From the TSP web site The G Fund interest rate calculation is based on the weighted average yield of all outstanding Treasury notes and bonds with 4 or more years to maturity. As a result, participants who invest in the G Fund are rewarded with a long-term rate on what is essentially a short-term s...
by Dr_McGarvey
Sat Jun 29, 2013 6:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) Returns as of June, 2013
Replies: 10
Views: 1217

Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) Returns as of June, 2013

The latest gathering of my summary tables and charts may be seen at: · http://www.flickr.com/photos/ghost_of_artaud/sets/72157625479558116/ (I realize this is the same URL I used in my previous messages -- as before, I've replaced the slides there with the most current data.) My rough impressions of...
by Dr_McGarvey
Sun May 05, 2013 2:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College is Totally Worth It (at these schools)
Replies: 39
Views: 3250

Re: College is Totally Worth It (at these schools)

When we contrast the four-year cost figure versus say, household median income figures for the years 1975 through 2011, we see an interesting comparison arise. Firstly, note that the median household income rose about 424.2% during that time (source: http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/data/histo...
by Dr_McGarvey
Sun May 05, 2013 12:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College is Totally Worth It (at these schools)
Replies: 39
Views: 3250

Re: College is Totally Worth It (at these schools)

Seldom do I hear a counter to this issue: Any thirty-year study of the alleged benefits of college must look at the costs of college in 1983 (and before) and not simply at the costs and payoffs today. By my rough calculations -- using a proxy of the estimated four-year costs (tuition and housing onl...
by Dr_McGarvey
Sun Mar 31, 2013 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) Quarterly Returns - March, 2013
Replies: 13
Views: 1432

Re: Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) Quarterly Returns - March, 201

So when you say "rebalance quarterly" this means you submit an interfund transfer to obtain your desired asset allocation every quarter? I.e. 20% F, 30% C, 30% S, 20% I? Thanks! Note: The quarterly re-allocation or re-balancing I describe in my models is pure fiction , variations in an Ex...
by Dr_McGarvey
Sun Mar 31, 2013 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) Quarterly Returns - March, 2013
Replies: 13
Views: 1432

Re: Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) Quarterly Returns - March, 201

The latest gathering of my summary tables and charts may be seen at: · http://www.flickr.com/photos/ghost_of_artaud/sets/72157625479558116/ . . . . I'll probably keep posting these updates on a quarterly basis. Please feel free to forward this message to those you think might have an interest in th...
by Dr_McGarvey
Sun Mar 31, 2013 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) Quarterly Returns - March, 2013
Replies: 13
Views: 1432

Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) Quarterly Returns - March, 2013

The latest gathering of my summary tables and charts may be seen at: · http://www.flickr.com/photos/ghost_of_artaud/sets/72157625479558116/ (I realize this is the same URL I used in my previous messages -- as before, I've replaced the slides there with the most current data.) My rough impressions of...
by Dr_McGarvey
Tue Feb 26, 2013 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Federal Retirees--Advice on Thrift Please
Replies: 12
Views: 960

Re: Federal Retirees--Advice on Thrift Please

Hi there, Old Guy ... You're about five years ahead of my choices in this matter, and I know it's an important call. One option you have that I think you missed: taking out a specified proportion to invest somewhere else, on a one-time-only basis. As for myself, I've let my TSP balances stay with TS...
by Dr_McGarvey
Fri Jan 25, 2013 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Managed Payout Distribution funds - revisited
Replies: 18
Views: 1777

Re: Managed Payout Distribution funds - revisited

What is a particularly stunning is how little the actual returns for 2013 will be: only 3% of each month's dividend. Contrast this with the 32% actual returns in 2012. That 3% isn't an accurate year-end number. It'll be revised quite a bit at year end. 2012's number was smaller starting out the yea...
by Dr_McGarvey
Thu Jan 24, 2013 10:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Managed Payout Distribution funds - revisited
Replies: 18
Views: 1777

Re: Managed Payout Distribution funds - revisited

Folks - Whether investors (potential or actual) realize it or not, a good portion of each monthly payout for VPGDX is simply a return of capital. What is a particularly stunning is how little the actual returns for 2013 will be: only 3% of each month's dividend. Contrast this with the 32% actual ret...
by Dr_McGarvey
Thu Jan 10, 2013 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing and the TSP
Replies: 39
Views: 3426

Re: Rebalancing and the TSP

I'm re-posting this link for those who might have missed it: http://goo.gl/vnHGD I'm of the "once-a-year-rebalance" sect, and I argue for a 20% portion to each of the "major" five TSP Funds (unless taking into account non-TSP accounts). The L-Funds do save some work, but thus fa...
by Dr_McGarvey
Thu Jan 10, 2013 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing and the TSP
Replies: 39
Views: 3426

Re: Rebalancing and the TSP

I'm re-posting this link for those who might have missed it: http://goo.gl/vnHGD I'm of the "once-a-year-rebalance" sect, and I argue for a 20% portion to each of the "major" five TSP Funds (unless taking into account non-TSP accounts). The L-Funds do save some work, but thus far...
by Dr_McGarvey
Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Increasing Bond Allocation: G Fund or VG Funds
Replies: 18
Views: 2091

Re: Increasing Bond Allocation: G Fund or VG Funds

As I have noted elsewhere: _____ Postby Dr_McGarvey » Thu Jan 03, 2013 7:51 pm I believe there's a greater resemblance/correlation of the TSP G Fund with VSGBX (the Federal Short-Term Reserves Fund), and a greater resemblance of the TSP F Fund with VBMFX (the Total Bond Market Index Fund). I have us...
by Dr_McGarvey
Thu Jan 03, 2013 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I use my TSP or Vanguard 403(b) for bonds?
Replies: 10
Views: 822

Re: Should I use my TSP or Vanguard 403(b) for bonds?

I believe there's a greater resemblance/correlation of the TSP G Fund with VSGBX (the Federal Short-Term Reserves Fund), and a greater resemblance of the TSP F Fund with VBMFX (the Total Bond Market Index Fund). I have used these as proxies for an extended period, with somewhat greater "slippag...
by Dr_McGarvey
Tue Jan 01, 2013 2:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone using Quicken 2013?
Replies: 77
Views: 16251

Re: Anyone using Quicken 2013?

I've been using Q 2013 for at least a month now, and I don't see that many material improvements over Q 2012. If you're short of cash, I'd say skip the upgrade. One salient point of annoyance not mentioned here yet: Importing of TurboTax Files from previous years failed with Q 2012, and it still has...

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