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Re: TIPS Yield Crash November 2008 - Why?

TIPS put in a mixed performance Tuesday and the 10yr and 5yr on-the-run TIPS led all Treasuries in a sharp rally. It was the good performance of the on the run TIPS issues that led me and some others on this board to suspect that deflation fears were having an impact. :idea: The on the run issues h...
by Doc
Tue Mar 03, 2015 11:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Yield Crash November 2008 - Why?
Replies: 18
Views: 1392

Re: Vanguard brokerage tax forms changed to late Feb. questi

... hasn't Vanguard had no less than 14 months to prepare for the reporting requirements changes (tax law changes come prior to Jan of the included year, don't they?) . There is a similar issue with cost basis reporting for fixed income securities. They showed wrong values both on the web site and ...
by Doc
Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:35 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard brokerage tax forms changed to late Feb. question
Replies: 90
Views: 6199

Re: Bond Funds vs Individual Bonds

Bonds are fixed income. They are a contract between the borrower and the lender. Barring default you are going to get the return that was promised you when you entered the contract. You can sell your contract along the way or keep it until it matures but that choice doesn't affect the original contr...
by Doc
Sat Feb 28, 2015 5:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Funds vs Individual Bonds
Replies: 11
Views: 676

Re: Vanguard brokerage tax forms changed to late Feb. questi

Regarding 1099-B's. I don't think you actually get a 1099-B anymore. What you get is a Form 1099-B Worksheet . Turbotax puts the info from them into up to 4 (I think) Form 8949. It's the 8949's that are the basis for Schedule D. I have 5 1099-B Worksheets from five different accounts at two differen...
by Doc
Fri Feb 27, 2015 2:39 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard brokerage tax forms changed to late Feb. question
Replies: 90
Views: 6199

Re: Vanguard brokerage tax forms changed to late Feb. questi

I don't see how calling them up is productive. The mild ranting on this thread is useful to help folks decide not to use Vanguard for their investments. I look it in two ways. 1) Low cost aka you get what you pay for. or 2) Maybe Vanguard will put some more assets into their IT department so they w...
by Doc
Fri Feb 27, 2015 11:17 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard brokerage tax forms changed to late Feb. question
Replies: 90
Views: 6199

Re: Vanguard brokerage tax forms changed to late Feb. questi

09:35 Return is done. :D

(Well at least the income part.)
by Doc
Fri Feb 27, 2015 9:34 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard brokerage tax forms changed to late Feb. question
Replies: 90
Views: 6199

Re: Vanguard brokerage tax forms changed to late Feb. questi

I just off the phone with Vanguard. They are aware of the problem and requested time to work this issue. I cannot do anything at this juncture but wait...I will however, reevaluate my relationship with Vanguard after I am able to finish my tax reporting. What is upsetting is the fact they are alrea...
by Doc
Fri Feb 27, 2015 8:37 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard brokerage tax forms changed to late Feb. question
Replies: 90
Views: 6199

Re: Vanguard brokerage tax forms changed to late Feb. questi

Same here. When I looked at the available tax documents, I found the 1099 B had been replaced by the "Consolidated Form 1099 ". I think that is the download problem. plannerman The "consolidated" form just puts all the other forms in one "envelope" and adds some additi...
by Doc
Fri Feb 27, 2015 8:15 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard brokerage tax forms changed to late Feb. question
Replies: 90
Views: 6199

Re: Vanguard brokerage tax forms changed to late Feb. questi

07:58 Eastern Time.

"This import was unsuccessful"
by Doc
Fri Feb 27, 2015 7:58 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard brokerage tax forms changed to late Feb. question
Replies: 90
Views: 6199

Re: Long Bond ETF Tax

While a general bond fund is OK in a taxable account at current yields, an extra-long-term fund such as TLT is still very tax-inefficient. The long-term bonds have higher yields than most bonds, resulting in more taxable income. In addition, if rates fall, the fund will have a capital gain as it se...
by Doc
Fri Feb 27, 2015 7:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long Bond ETF Tax
Replies: 10
Views: 704

Re: Vanguard Strikes Back With Lower Target-Date Fees

By the end of 2015, the funds will boost their international-stock stake to 40% of stocks from 30%" VG must be listening to Rick :wink: The TDs are moving closer to my AA. Maybe I should consider them...although no telling when they'll drift away again. Maybe you should just send Vanguard a bi...
by Doc
Thu Feb 26, 2015 6:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International increase in Target Retirement & LifeStrategy
Replies: 138
Views: 9664

Re: TIPS Yield Crash November 2008 - Why?

So what I get is there are two things happening at the same time. 1) The Treasury changed their constant maturity methodology which distorted the constant maturity data. per Bob. and 2) The Fed announced plans to start qualitative easing which affected the actual market price/yield of FI in general....
by Doc
Thu Feb 26, 2015 6:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Yield Crash November 2008 - Why?
Replies: 18
Views: 1392

Re: TIPS Yield Crash November 2008 - Why?

Monday Nov 17, 2008: SP500 hits 800pts. http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/17/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm?cnn=yes change the dates in the URL . Interesting times. From the headline in the CNN link for Monday December 1, 2008 Dow plunges 680 points Stocks slump as U.S. recession is officially called...
by Doc
Thu Feb 26, 2015 4:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Yield Crash November 2008 - Why?
Replies: 18
Views: 1392

Re: TIPS Yield Crash November 2008 - Why?

Interesting question. I notice 12-month expected inflation dropped from 2.9 in November to 1.7 on December 1st. The "Survey of Consumers" expected inflation rate dropped from 5.2% on May 1, 2008 to the 1.7% as you noted. This data may support the deflation fear explanation of the run up i...
by Doc
Thu Feb 26, 2015 2:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Yield Crash November 2008 - Why?
Replies: 18
Views: 1392

Re: Long Bond ETF Tax

For taxable bonds, accumulating capital gains on bonds bought at par is not an advantage (not to mention impossible over the long term). I don't understand your point. If you buy a taxable bond at par and sell it before maturity at a market premium you convert future interest payments taxed as ordi...
by Doc
Thu Feb 26, 2015 2:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long Bond ETF Tax
Replies: 10
Views: 704

TIPS Yield Crash November 2008 - Why?

There have been many discussions about TIPS performance oddities during the banking crisis in the fall of 2008. Two competing arguments often discussed are deflation concerns and liquidity problems associated with Lehman dumping TIPS. But these are reasons for yields to rise and prices to fall. I ju...
by Doc
Thu Feb 26, 2015 2:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Yield Crash November 2008 - Why?
Replies: 18
Views: 1392

Re: Long Bond ETF Tax

The 1% difference I understand Morningstar's tax cost ratios are based on the highest federal tax rate in effect at the time of the distribution. Unless you are living in a state with no taxes and your income is over $400k M*'s numbers are virtually worthless for comparing the tax efficiency of sec...
by Doc
Thu Feb 26, 2015 9:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long Bond ETF Tax
Replies: 10
Views: 704

Re: Vanguard brokerage tax forms changed to late Feb. questi

Where does TT tell you the date forms are available? When I go to import tax forms it just prompts with a login screen for Vanguard. I have the OSX desktop Home & Small Business version. I think you have to submit your password before you get the message. I use the web version of TT, right now ...
by Doc
Wed Feb 25, 2015 7:32 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard brokerage tax forms changed to late Feb. question
Replies: 90
Views: 6199

Re: Vanguard brokerage tax forms changed to late Feb. questi

Choy wrote:Where does TT tell you the date forms are available? When I go to import tax forms it just prompts with a login screen for Vanguard. I have the OSX desktop Home & Small Business version.

I think you have to submit your password before you get the message.
by Doc
Wed Feb 25, 2015 9:33 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard brokerage tax forms changed to late Feb. question
Replies: 90
Views: 6199

Re: Recapturing gains due to TLH at the 0% level

Re: Tactics of capturing the tax loss. Generally it's better to hold a barbell -- some shares with a high basis and some with a low basis, than a bullet -- where the same total basis is divided equally over the same number of shares. ... Thanks, I hadn't thought about that aspect. Our position is a ...
by Doc
Wed Feb 25, 2015 9:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recapturing gains due to TLH at the 0% level
Replies: 16
Views: 863

Re: Keep brokerage account at Vanguard?

afan wrote:I have never had a problem with Vanguard brokerage. I trade rarely, but everything has always been fine. Also have used Fidelity and Schwab. I cannot see any meaningful differences among them other than price.

You have been very, very lucky.
by Doc
Tue Feb 24, 2015 3:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keep brokerage account at Vanguard?
Replies: 11
Views: 1338

Re: Recapturing gains due to TLH at the 0% level

No. For tax gain harvesting, I think you can sell and buy back immediately. No need to wait 31 days. Vanguard makes you wait 60 days, unless one of the transactions is via mail or a one-shot automated transaction. http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Frequent_trading_policy The sell and buy back without ...
by Doc
Tue Feb 24, 2015 3:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recapturing gains due to TLH at the 0% level
Replies: 16
Views: 863

Re: Recapturing gains due to TLH at the 0% level

Tactics of capturing the tax loss. :?:

Assuming the purpose of harvesting a tax gain now is to be able to take a tax loss later at some opportune time is it

1) Better to take a $50k loss on a $1000k sale

or

2) Take the same $50k loss on a $100k sale

Why?
by Doc
Tue Feb 24, 2015 10:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recapturing gains due to TLH at the 0% level
Replies: 16
Views: 863

Re: Recapturing gains due to TLH at the 0% level

I was thinking about this myself as we will be in the 15% marginal income tax bracket Sometimes you can get some advantage by doing different things in alternate years. Like tax gain harvest up to the 15% limit in year one and and then take do a ROTH conversion in year two. Other combinations might...
by Doc
Mon Feb 23, 2015 6:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recapturing gains due to TLH at the 0% level
Replies: 16
Views: 863

Re: Recapturing gains due to TLH at the 0% level

Am I missing something? Yes. 1) You can deduct up to $3k a year of LTCL carryover against ordinary income each year. 2) You could be in the SS phase out period since your wife retired. While in the phase out your effective tax may be 185% of your bracket rate. You need to get some tax software to f...
by Doc
Mon Feb 23, 2015 5:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recapturing gains due to TLH at the 0% level
Replies: 16
Views: 863

Re: Keep brokerage account at Vanguard?

Opinion? Sure! I stopped using Vanguard BS shortly after trying it. Every other broker I have tried is better including WellsTrade, TDAmeritrade, and Fidelity. I use Vanguard funds at WellsTrade and TDAmeritrade without fees and commissions. I did a transfer-in-kind of a Vanguard ETF to FIdelity to...
by Doc
Mon Feb 23, 2015 12:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keep brokerage account at Vanguard?
Replies: 11
Views: 1338

Re: Total Bond Index Changes?

My question, has the duration increased on Total Bond Index and has the MBS decreased? I just looked at the fund on Vanguard's site and it looks that way. Yes. The first perhaps due to the Treasury issuing 30's and not 20's and the second due to the "disappearance" of non-agency MBS after...
by Doc
Mon Feb 23, 2015 9:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Index Changes?
Replies: 1
Views: 474

Re: Best Use of TIPS Fund in Retirement

However, the expectation of future changes in the CPI (i.e., inflationary expectations) did fall during this time. So TIPS rates did rise at the same time that inflationary expectations fell. But this doesn't necessarily mean that TIPS rates rose because of the fall in inflationary expectations. It...
by Doc
Mon Feb 23, 2015 9:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Use of TIPS Fund in Retirement
Replies: 17
Views: 1588

Re: Contradictory use of the term "Market Portfolio"

Based on reading a book by William Sharpe on CAPM I always assumed that the "market portfolio" was a fiction defined as the tangent point or the curve. Here's an article by Fama and French discussing the ideas for those willing to do a deep dive into the ideas. For example,the CAPM says th...
by Doc
Sun Feb 22, 2015 11:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contradictory use of the term "Market Portfolio"
Replies: 22
Views: 761

Re: ? present value of soc sec and pension

How should one estimate the present cash value of the following three assets: The short answer is that you use the net present value equations. That's basically incorrect. You DO use expected remaining lifespan from somewhere, either gender adjusted or not. But yes you can play with the numbers, ad...
by Doc
Sat Feb 21, 2015 9:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ? present value of soc sec and pension
Replies: 37
Views: 2863

Re: Cap Gains & Divs killed me this year

Morningstar provides a Tax page for all Mutual Funds. You can see potential capital gains tax exposure and recent annual tax costs in percentage terms. Here is the Tax tab for Vanguard Windsor Fund. The "recent annual tax costs" are based on the highest tax rate in effect at the time of t...
by Doc
Sat Feb 21, 2015 9:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cap Gains & Divs killed me this year
Replies: 61
Views: 5906

Re: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?

Individual TIPS in a taxable account, for me, create more paperwork than I'm willing to accept but I can appreciate that obstacle being tiny for others. Don't give up hope. Big Brother has mandated that the brokers will have to do the complete TIPS arithmetic for you for purchases after January 1, ...
by Doc
Sat Feb 21, 2015 9:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?
Replies: 39
Views: 3308

Re: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?

For me, I pick every transaction in my taxable account carefully because I don't want to be holding an investment in the future which creates a potentially significant tax liability. I personally don't want to be in a position where I'm holding TIPS in my taxable account should inflation get away f...
by Doc
Fri Feb 20, 2015 12:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?
Replies: 39
Views: 3308

Re: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?

And don't forget that you're paying income tax on the appreciated principal as well as the coupon, for which you're really getting nothing (until the bond has matured or you've sold it). Right, that's why I said 2.5% ... 0.8 coupon + 1.8 inflation = 2.5%. (Ok it was a fast estimate.) The deferral o...
by Doc
Fri Feb 20, 2015 11:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?
Replies: 39
Views: 3308

Re: Vanguard brokerage tax forms changed to late Feb. questi

What's the difference between what's reported on a brokerage 1099 and what you can get by logging into vanguard.com and clicking: Balances and Holding -> Brokerage Account -> Cost Basis -> Realized Gains and Losses -> 2014 Total Our 2014 Total from that page changed three times from January 1 to ~ ...
by Doc
Fri Feb 20, 2015 10:31 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard brokerage tax forms changed to late Feb. question
Replies: 90
Views: 6199

Re: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?

It's just my own, fairly poorly substantiated interpretation, but I still lean towards the notion that TIPS will be less vulnerable in the future as both of these examples should hopefully become less likely to repeat over time. I think Larry Swedroe agrees with you at least on the Lehman dumping p...
by Doc
Thu Feb 19, 2015 2:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?
Replies: 39
Views: 3308

Re: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?

However, I do hold just 15% FI so longer bonds don't scare me so much. If you have only 15% fixed income you might want to consider long nominal Treasuries. This is not something I look at but I think there are several advocates for this type of FI portfolio for those with high AA's. See Swenson ma...
by Doc
Thu Feb 19, 2015 12:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?
Replies: 39
Views: 3308

Re: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?

I'll always have equities and nominals because I just don't have the space in my tax-advantaged accounts to build a gargantuan LMP, and this is something I view as a blessing and a curse. Check your math. Tax efficiency is the product of tax rate times the annual return. With 30 year TIPS returning...
by Doc
Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?
Replies: 39
Views: 3308

Re: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?

1) I've posted on this before, but historically 1% real has not been that bad of a bond return. THe recent period of high real interest rates was a bit of an anomaly. Will try to find the reference. it was a study by deutsche bank on 100+ years of corporate bond returns (they showed treasury data a...
by Doc
Thu Feb 19, 2015 10:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?
Replies: 39
Views: 3308

Re: Calculating TIPS duration?

richard wrote:That's a nice tool. It even seems to work after hours.

The price data may not be erroneous outside of market hours and some individual issues may not show up in the "search" list".
by Doc
Thu Feb 19, 2015 9:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculating TIPS duration?
Replies: 6
Views: 408

Re: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?

If I didn't do this I'd still want to hold my FI at 15%, so it's really more of a TIPS vs TBM issue for me than TIPS vs. equity. Does this sound reasonable? It must be reasonable since I do something very similar except for the maturity of the TIPS. The TBM/TIPS tradeoff is also reasonable. My ques...
by Doc
Wed Feb 18, 2015 5:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?
Replies: 39
Views: 3308

Re: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?

Grok, why set up your ladder ahead of time? The day after you retire buy your 30 year TIPS ladder on the secondary market. Hopefully rates will be higher then and you will get a higher income going forward. In any case you should be able to earn more than 1% real in the meantime while you are still ...
by Doc
Wed Feb 18, 2015 10:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?
Replies: 39
Views: 3308

Re: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?

Just had a look at the ssa life tables. Based on that, for a 65 year old man the 95th percentlie of age at death is 96 years old. For a 65 year old woman the 95th percentile of age at death is 99 years. So if you want to be 95. Percent certain of not outliving your tips, a man would stop buying tip...
by Doc
Wed Feb 18, 2015 10:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?
Replies: 39
Views: 3308

Re: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?

It's a good question, i'll think about it. My gut reaction is that I would plan more like 15-20 years beyond one's life expectancy. I think I've said this before but ... I use only ten years into retirement with the intent of using the TIPS only in the case when the stock market tanks during that t...
by Doc
Wed Feb 18, 2015 9:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: TBA 2/12 0.75% yield?
Replies: 39
Views: 3308

Re: Calculating TIPS duration?

I'm trying to calculate the duration of some individual TIPS I own. The purpose of the exercise is to make sure the average duration of my total bond portfolio is within a range I find acceptable. I'm looking for a method that's approximately correct Unfortunately "you can't get there from her...
by Doc
Wed Feb 18, 2015 9:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculating TIPS duration?
Replies: 6
Views: 408

Re: Cap Gains & Divs killed me this year

Tax efficiency is based on distributions, the fraction of qualified dividends and non-qualified dividends, as well as the foreign tax credit and whether capital gains are distributed. Please stop saying that. Tax efficiency also includes the accrued tax on unrealized LTCG. You implied in that prior...
by Doc
Tue Feb 17, 2015 7:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cap Gains & Divs killed me this year
Replies: 61
Views: 5906

TreasuryDirect.gov is down Huh?

Treasurydirect.gov is down
Last updated @ 02/17/2015 07:35:06

http://www.websitedown.info/treasurydirect.gov

Is it closed for snow? OMG
by Doc
Tue Feb 17, 2015 10:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TreasuryDirect.gov is down Huh?
Replies: 4
Views: 542

Re: Does anyone NOT rebalance similar asset classes?

I only rebalance when our equity/bond allocation is out of bounds. But when I do rebalance the major AA I redirect the sales and new purchases towards those sub-classes that have drifted from their aim point.
by Doc
Tue Feb 17, 2015 9:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone NOT rebalance similar asset classes?
Replies: 13
Views: 823

Re: Please double check my tax efficiency calculations

Unless I missed it you don't have a term for the accrued taxes on LTCG. If you are looking at equity funds with maybe 2% in distributions and 6% in growth, the tax on the capital gains is going to be the biggest tax loss even if it has the lowest rate.
by Doc
Tue Feb 17, 2015 9:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please double check my tax efficiency calculations
Replies: 12
Views: 1048
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