Search found 405 matches

by Day9
Tue Jul 28, 2015 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A bit of gold?
Replies: 45
Views: 2506

Re: A bit of gold?

I don't know why one would choose just gold over a diversified basket of commodities. Adding a splash of commodities allows you to extend the duration of your bond portfolio as these risk factors complement one another. Commodities do well in inflation and duration risk does well in deflation. You'r...
by Day9
Wed Jul 22, 2015 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I Said "No" to Peer-to-Peer Lending
Replies: 66
Views: 6056

Re: Why I Said "No" to Peer-to-Peer Lending

My gut feeling is that you are NOT COMPENSATED for the level of risk you are taking.

Shouldn't these borrowers be paying 20%-30%+ like some do on credit cards? But you only charge them 10%? What am I missing?
by Day9
Mon Jul 20, 2015 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VBILX vs VBTLX for 3 fund portfolio
Replies: 14
Views: 1221

Re: VBILX vs VBTLX for 3 fund portfolio

You're leaving the most important thing out -- Your stock/bond allocation

In a stock dominated portfolio you would prefer more treasuries. In a bond dominated portfolio you would prefer a healthier portion of corporates.
by Day9
Mon Jul 20, 2015 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: leverage and beating the market
Replies: 37
Views: 2515

Re: leverage and beating the market

Two all time Boglehead classics: A Different Approach to Asset Allocation (by Market Timer) Market Timer's Margin Call A more recent thread: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund (by Rob Bertram) While IB margin rates are low, the implied financing on future contracts is even lower, about 0.5%....
by Day9
Mon Jul 20, 2015 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard "Too Big to Fail?"
Replies: 11
Views: 1444

Re: Vanguard "Too Big to Fail?"

Clive wrote:Isn't Vanguard unique in that its actually owned by the funds, and the funds are owned by the shareholders (investors).


Mr Bogle has expressed disappointment that Vanguard is unique in this regard. It would be nice if there were other firms that took a similar structure.
by Day9
Wed Jul 15, 2015 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?
Replies: 770
Views: 122185

Re: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?

A good article on leverage: http://www.forbes.com/sites/baldwin/2015/03/27/seven-rules-of-debt-for-investors/2/ The article asserts that an unlevered 100% stock portfolio is strictly better than a modestly levered 60/40 portfolio and offers absolutely no analysis to back up this claim. EDIT: It mak...
by Day9
Wed Jul 15, 2015 1:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whatever happened to the advocates of CDs vs Bonds?
Replies: 58
Views: 5612

Re: Whatever happened to the advocates of CDs vs Bonds?

To Americans who say "rates have nowhere to go but up":

US 10 year treasury yeild: 2.4%
German 10 year bund yield: 0.84%
Japan 10 year bond yield: 0.44%
by Day9
Fri Jul 10, 2015 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you do the Larry Portfolio?
Replies: 48
Views: 3700

Re: How do you do the Larry Portfolio?

The distribution of returns of a traditional portfolio isn't a normal distribution. They are negatively skewed. They have fat left tails. This means the events where they crash hard and fast are much more common than events where they shoot up hard and fast of an equally high magnitude. The Larry po...
by Day9
Thu Jul 09, 2015 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond and Intermediate Term Investment Grade
Replies: 18
Views: 1918

Re: Total Bond and Intermediate Term Investment Grade

If I had a portfolio with 40% fixed income or more I would do this. But in this stage of my life my portfolio is 90% stock and I've found that longer duration and higher credit quality is better for my stock dominated portfolio.
by Day9
Tue Jul 07, 2015 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many Bogleheads tilt Value?
Replies: 49
Views: 3345

Re: How many Bogleheads tilt Value?

I have access to DFA funds in my 401k and I've found their international funds are a better way to get international value factor exposure than the other options I have available to me so I take advantage of that
by Day9
Mon Jun 29, 2015 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1411
Views: 279388

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Price changes of select tickers on today's Open and at the current time (11:30am eastern) Vanguard Total International (VXUS) Open: -1.78% 11:30am: -2.3% Vanguard Growth (VUG) Open: -0.8% 11:30am: -1.1% Vanguard Small Cap Value (VBR) Open: -0.65% 11:30am: -1.0% Price of Long Term Treasuries (TLT) Op...
by Day9
Wed Jun 17, 2015 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sample Portfolio - Random Walk Down Wall Street
Replies: 60
Views: 6349

Re: Sample Portfolio - Random Walk Down Wall Street

The kind of person who comes up with a portfolio like this is the kind of person who looks at assets in isolation rather than in the context of a diversified portfolio.
by Day9
Mon Jun 15, 2015 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Switching to some actively managed funds???
Replies: 4
Views: 847

Re: Switching to some actively managed funds???

If you like Vanguard Target Date funds but want to keep your allocation static as you age then you will like Vanguard's Life Strategy funds, which do precisely that.

https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/lifestrategy/
by Day9
Wed Jun 10, 2015 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VT the most diversified equity ETF?
Replies: 12
Views: 2306

Re: VT the most diversified equity ETF?

VT has 7161 stocks

VTI has 3814 stocks

VXUS has 5888 stocks

3814 + 5888 = 9702 > 7161
by Day9
Wed Jun 10, 2015 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3- and 4-Fund Portfolios: What About TIPS?
Replies: 11
Views: 1288

Re: 3- and 4-Fund Portfolios: What About TIPS?

TIPS are appropriate for individuals since our expenses are affected by inflation, unlike for example an insurance company with predictable nominal future expenses. Nominal bonds do poorly during high inflation. Stocks are supposed to protect against inflation. However during the stagflation of the ...
by Day9
Mon Jun 01, 2015 2:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What day do Automatic Investments post at Vanguard?
Replies: 14
Views: 1341

Re: What day do Automatic Investments post at Vanguard?

Even if you get your answer here I would encourage you to try Vanguard's customer service. They have been excellent for me.
by Day9
Tue May 26, 2015 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reducing the Black Swans
Replies: 69
Views: 7504

Re: Reducing the Black Swans

"Highest expected returning equity asset class" based on what? Past performance? If you accept that as a reliable indicator of future returns, why not then just invest in the Small Dogs of the Dow, and leave even more money in the bank? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dogs_of_the_Dow There ...
by Day9
Tue May 26, 2015 1:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reducing the Black Swans
Replies: 69
Views: 7504

Re: Reducing the Black Swans

Spidey The "Larry Portfolio" is uses the very same principles as Taleb, with most of the investments in basically riskless (or near riskless) investments, and the rest in the highest expected returning equity asset class--small value stocks. Larry How is this fundamentally different than,...
by Day9
Thu May 21, 2015 12:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you think Ric Edelman is correct, never pay down mortgage
Replies: 257
Views: 26887

Re: Do you think Ric Edelman is correct, never pay down mortgage

It is very obvious that when you pledge to pay for something and sign your name that it is morally wrong to renege. But then again we live in an era where it is common for people to swear an oath/vow of lifelong fidelity in front of all their family and friends and end up divorcing for reasons like ...
by Day9
Wed May 13, 2015 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interactive Brokers (Best Kept Secret)
Replies: 63
Views: 6983

Re: Interactive Brokers (Best Kept Secret)

They still have the minimum $10/mo in monthly commission fee (if you don't pay at least this much in commissions you are charged the difference each month) Do they still have that $10/mo exchange fee? For example this page says "IBIS Research Platform - Standard fee - Free" but then goes o...
by Day9
Wed May 13, 2015 4:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold vs offshore custodianship of stocks, bonds
Replies: 36
Views: 1600

Re: Gold vs offshore custodianship of stocks, bonds

pretty pedantic of you to get flustered over the distinction between 'possession' and 'ownership', especially when you ignore the term of art definition of 'fiat currency' and make bold assertions like 'all currency is fiat' with no argument to back them up.
by Day9
Wed May 13, 2015 3:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?
Replies: 770
Views: 122185

Re: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?

I've found that commodities have negative correlation with duration risk (one does well in inflation the other in deflation) so they may fit well in your treasury bond-heavy portfolios. Here are some great threads from the Collective thoughts sticky including some great debate between Swedroe and Fe...
by Day9
Wed May 13, 2015 3:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold vs offshore custodianship of stocks, bonds
Replies: 36
Views: 1600

Re: Gold vs offshore custodianship of stocks, bonds

Gold is a hedge against Fiat currencies. All currencies are fiat , so is the concept of property ownership. both depend on government "Fiat Currency" is a term of art but I'll grant you your interpretation of the phrase. Let's instead say gold is a hedge against currencies with controllab...
by Day9
Tue May 12, 2015 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold vs offshore custodianship of stocks, bonds
Replies: 36
Views: 1600

Re: Gold vs offshore custodianship of stocks, bonds

Gold is a hedge against Fiat currencies. All currencies are fiat , so is the concept of property ownership. both depend on government "Fiat Currency" is a term of art but I'll grant you your interpretation of the phrase. Let's instead say gold is a hedge against currencies with controllab...
by Day9
Tue May 12, 2015 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reducing the Black Swans
Replies: 69
Views: 7504

Re: Reducing the Black Swans

This recent thread about PXSV chaning indexes has some good discussion on domestic small cap value funds.

This post by Robert T from that thread is especially helpful. Robert T breaks things down very well. I also recommend his sticky post on this forum for more general insights.
by Day9
Tue May 12, 2015 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold vs offshore custodianship of stocks, bonds
Replies: 36
Views: 1600

Re: Gold vs offshore custodianship of stocks, bonds

Gold is a hedge against Fiat currencies. It will do well in a black swan scenario where we abandon fiat currency and go back to the gold standard or a commodity backed currency. It's not just the "America loses WW3" scenarios where gold does well. I don't hold any physical gold but I have ...
by Day9
Tue May 05, 2015 2:50 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: What's new and changed in phpBB 3.1
Replies: 69
Views: 7048

Re: What happened to "view your posts" button?

Thank you very much.
by Day9
Mon May 04, 2015 11:58 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: What's new and changed in phpBB 3.1
Replies: 69
Views: 7048

What happened to "view your posts" button?

[Thread merged into here, see below (page 2). --admin LadyGeek]

There used to be a link called "View your posts" that showed every thread you made a comment in. Is this gone forever?
by Day9
Fri May 01, 2015 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Unconstrained" food fight
Replies: 6
Views: 1368

Re: "Unconstrained" food fight

I highly recommend Wealthtrack. As far as I know it's the only show about long term investing (not speculation or trading) on TV

Episode with Jack Bogle: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgonFBH-RuM

List of all episodes: https://www.youtube.com/user/WealthTrack/videos
by Day9
Fri May 01, 2015 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: the missing value premium
Replies: 34
Views: 3652

Re: the missing value premium

larryswedroe wrote:PS in case not aware those who are interested in my musings you can also find them at mutualfunds.com


Don't worry I have a Google Alert set up to send me an email whenever new "Larry Swedroe" content is posted on the web. I recommend other Swedroeheads do the same! :wink:
by Day9
Fri May 01, 2015 1:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard vs. DFA when tax efficiency really matters
Replies: 35
Views: 2186

Re: Vanguard vs. DFA when tax efficiency really matters

DTMVX is a Tax Managed fund so I would hope that it is a good smval choice when tax efficiency really matters. Altruist Financial Advisers recommends it over VBR. Scroll down to the "Taxable account" section of the page. However they like a different ETF even better. Robert T posted this c...
by Day9
Thu Apr 30, 2015 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's CEO on what has changed and what hasn't.
Replies: 4
Views: 1257

Re: Vanguard's CEO on what has changed and what hasn't.

The Vanguard effect is most definitely real. Why do you think Schwab made their Total Market ETF SCHB expense ratio 0.04%? Precisely because Vanguard's VTI costs 0.05%.
by Day9
Tue Apr 28, 2015 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PXSV has changed indexes
Replies: 130
Views: 13165

Re: PXSV has changed indexes

Day 9, Search the forum for MTUM or by user = Robert T and you will find much excellent due diligence on MTUM. The other ETF is a no-go from the low AUM alone. You will also find discussions regarding AQR's 5 million minimums which don't apply for certain funds at certain custodians (Fidelity and T...
by Day9
Mon Apr 27, 2015 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PXSV has changed indexes
Replies: 130
Views: 13165

Re: PXSV has changed indexes

. (iv) If you want to more explicitly target exposure to more factors than simply size and value (e.g. size, value, quality, momentum) then AQR small multifactor fits the criteria (just to note that the -2.4% trade costs of US small momentum-value-quality are directly from the AQR article–"A N...
by Day9
Mon Apr 27, 2015 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Janitor in Vermont leaves millions] A true Boglehead!
Replies: 55
Views: 4329

Re: WP: Janitor accumulates $8 million estate

But there is also a cautionary tale about recognizing the value of your finite time here on Earth. Perhaps learning to enjoy life while you can is part of that equation. It really boils my blood when I see this assumption that you must spend spend spend in order to live a good, happy, & fulfill...
by Day9
Fri Apr 24, 2015 1:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1411
Views: 279388

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I would love to see a 10 year (or long enough) chart of TSM with this threads creation date and the dates when it gets bumped highlighted.
by Day9
Thu Apr 23, 2015 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Age in Bonds Poll
Replies: 72
Views: 4556

Re: Age in Bonds Poll

I follow age in bonds but believe it is not appropriate for a typical investor (too conservative). If I were just graduating from college and entering the workforce in my 20's, I would be more like 90-100% stocks. For a 40 year old who hasn't saved up much, I don't see the point of 40% bonds. I thi...
by Day9
Tue Apr 21, 2015 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund now available
Replies: 49
Views: 7968

Re: Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund now available

Sure 0.53% is more than a money market but it's less than the 0.9%-1% you can get at some online high yield FDIC insured savings accounts.

The only reason I can think to prefer this fund over those accounts is the $250k limit.
by Day9
Tue Apr 21, 2015 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: What is your SWR in retirement?
Replies: 45
Views: 4379

Re: Retirees: What is your SWR in retirement?

A 3% rule for a 30 year retirement worked in all historical scenarios, even if you retired just before the great depression. However if you use a Monte Carlo simulation instead of historical data and assume 7% return, 2% inflation, and 20% standard deviation, a 3% rule only works in 73% of scenarios...
by Day9
Thu Apr 16, 2015 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I and EE Bonds - What will the new rate be?
Replies: 18
Views: 2397

Re: I and EE Bonds - What will the new rate be?

Just want to chime in and say regardless of their interest rate EE bonds are guaranteed to double after 20 years. That works out to a 3.53% rate if held for 20 years. 20 year treasuries yield 2.31% today. Of course you can sell treasuries on the secondary market but EE bonds must be held for 20 year...
by Day9
Thu Apr 16, 2015 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Less liquid counterpart to stocks?
Replies: 7
Views: 903

Re: Less liquid counterpart to stocks?

High expected return entails high risk. But high risk does not entail high expected returns.

Maybe you can look toward micro-cap stocks which tend to be less liquid and sometimes have higher expected returns.
by Day9
Thu Apr 16, 2015 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Saudi Arabia be added into Total International Stock?
Replies: 19
Views: 3140

Re: Will Saudi Arabia be added into Total International Stoc

Just want to chime in that valuation of state-owned, not publicly traded corporation Saudi Aramco is estimated from $781 billion to even $7 trillion. Apple's market cap at the end of last year was $647 billion. It has the highest revenue of any corporation in the world. FT Non-Public 150 - the full ...
by Day9
Wed Apr 15, 2015 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [retired guy said] terrible crash is coming
Replies: 71
Views: 9243

Re: [retired guy said] terrible crash is coming

Jack Bogle said if the market seems to be very overvalued to you, then take your 65% allocation to stocks and bring it to 50%. But the idea of selling all your stocks is ridiculous.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k6ra5POdsYg
by Day9
Tue Apr 14, 2015 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?
Replies: 770
Views: 122185

Re: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?

i've read in this thread the implied financing is 0.6%, a full percentage point below IB margin rates. why don't people just buy futures and hold collateral in 1% high yield fdic insured savings accounts? is this a free lunch? what is the best broker to buy futures? IB has low fees but has a require...
by Day9
Tue Apr 14, 2015 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?
Replies: 770
Views: 122185

Re: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?

aren't treasury futures just for speculation and not for long term investing? i say this because they don't yield coupon payments.
by Day9
Tue Apr 14, 2015 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth IRA for Teeneagers
Replies: 24
Views: 1843

Re: Roth IRA for Teeneagers

A friend of mine matched his teenage kid's earnings dollar-for-dollar if he contributed to his Roth IRA. I don't have kids but that sounds like good parenting to me.
by Day9
Wed Apr 08, 2015 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The $1 Million Goal: Source of Motivation or Discouragement?
Replies: 172
Views: 17721

Re: The $1 Million Goal: Source of Motivation or Discouragem

A 22-year old today who saves $23,500 per year (current 401k+IRA maximum contributions) and averaging compound 7% returns will reach $1m nominal in 20 years, when he is 42. Factoring in a modest 2% inflation estimate will tack on 4 more years to reach $1 million 2015 dollars. $50k is about the media...
by Day9
Tue Apr 07, 2015 12:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there Smart Beta in Corporate Bonds?
Replies: 35
Views: 3991

Re: Is there Smart Beta in Corporate Bonds?

This challenges the "Collective thoughts [investing mini-reference]" stickied thread in this forum by Robert T. Here are the relevant sections: Default Risk: NYU study: Most of the premium is explained by same factors that influence equity returns ""We show that expected default ...
by Day9
Thu Apr 02, 2015 1:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If long-term, why not just go really high risk?
Replies: 49
Views: 5519

Re: If long-term, why not just go really high risk?

There are long term risks to risky assets. You aren't absolved of all risk just because you have a long time horizon.

Here is a paper from UC Irvine http://merage.uci.edu/~jorion/papers/risk.pdf

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