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by Day9
Thu May 21, 2015 12:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you think Ric Edelman is correct, never pay down mortgage
Replies: 257
Views: 23655

Re: Do you think Ric Edelman is correct, never pay down mortgage

It is very obvious that when you pledge to pay for something and sign your name that it is morally wrong to renege. But then again we live in an era where it is common for people to swear an oath/vow of lifelong fidelity in front of all their family and friends and end up divorcing for reasons like ...
by Day9
Wed May 13, 2015 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interactive Brokers (Best Kept Secret)
Replies: 58
Views: 4692

Re: Interactive Brokers (Best Kept Secret)

They still have the minimum $10/mo in monthly commission fee (if you don't pay at least this much in commissions you are charged the difference each month) Do they still have that $10/mo exchange fee? For example this page says "IBIS Research Platform - Standard fee - Free" but then goes o...
by Day9
Wed May 13, 2015 4:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold vs offshore custodianship of stocks, bonds
Replies: 36
Views: 1386

Re: Gold vs offshore custodianship of stocks, bonds

pretty pedantic of you to get flustered over the distinction between 'possession' and 'ownership', especially when you ignore the term of art definition of 'fiat currency' and make bold assertions like 'all currency is fiat' with no argument to back them up.
by Day9
Wed May 13, 2015 3:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?
Replies: 744
Views: 104949

Re: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?

I've found that commodities have negative correlation with duration risk (one does well in inflation the other in deflation) so they may fit well in your treasury bond-heavy portfolios. Here are some great threads from the Collective thoughts sticky including some great debate between Swedroe and Fe...
by Day9
Wed May 13, 2015 3:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold vs offshore custodianship of stocks, bonds
Replies: 36
Views: 1386

Re: Gold vs offshore custodianship of stocks, bonds

Gold is a hedge against Fiat currencies. All currencies are fiat , so is the concept of property ownership. both depend on government "Fiat Currency" is a term of art but I'll grant you your interpretation of the phrase. Let's instead say gold is a hedge against currencies with controllab...
by Day9
Tue May 12, 2015 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold vs offshore custodianship of stocks, bonds
Replies: 36
Views: 1386

Re: Gold vs offshore custodianship of stocks, bonds

Gold is a hedge against Fiat currencies. All currencies are fiat , so is the concept of property ownership. both depend on government "Fiat Currency" is a term of art but I'll grant you your interpretation of the phrase. Let's instead say gold is a hedge against currencies with controllab...
by Day9
Tue May 12, 2015 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reducing the Black Swans
Replies: 11
Views: 1694

Re: Reducing the Black Swans

This recent thread about PXSV chaning indexes has some good discussion on domestic small cap value funds.

This post by Robert T from that thread is especially helpful. Robert T breaks things down very well. I also recommend his sticky post on this forum for more general insights.
by Day9
Tue May 12, 2015 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold vs offshore custodianship of stocks, bonds
Replies: 36
Views: 1386

Re: Gold vs offshore custodianship of stocks, bonds

Gold is a hedge against Fiat currencies. It will do well in a black swan scenario where we abandon fiat currency and go back to the gold standard or a commodity backed currency. It's not just the "America loses WW3" scenarios where gold does well. I don't hold any physical gold but I have ...
by Day9
Tue May 05, 2015 2:50 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: What's new and changed in phpBB 3.1
Replies: 69
Views: 3294

Re: What happened to "view your posts" button?

Thank you very much.
by Day9
Mon May 04, 2015 11:58 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: What's new and changed in phpBB 3.1
Replies: 69
Views: 3294

What happened to "view your posts" button?

[Thread merged into here, see below (page 2). --admin LadyGeek]

There used to be a link called "View your posts" that showed every thread you made a comment in. Is this gone forever?
by Day9
Fri May 01, 2015 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Unconstrained" food fight
Replies: 6
Views: 1320

Re: "Unconstrained" food fight

I highly recommend Wealthtrack. As far as I know it's the only show about long term investing (not speculation or trading) on TV

Episode with Jack Bogle: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgonFBH-RuM

List of all episodes: https://www.youtube.com/user/WealthTrack/videos
by Day9
Fri May 01, 2015 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: the missing value premium
Replies: 34
Views: 3318

Re: the missing value premium

larryswedroe wrote:PS in case not aware those who are interested in my musings you can also find them at mutualfunds.com


Don't worry I have a Google Alert set up to send me an email whenever new "Larry Swedroe" content is posted on the web. I recommend other Swedroeheads do the same! :wink:
by Day9
Fri May 01, 2015 1:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard vs. DFA when tax efficiency really matters
Replies: 35
Views: 2037

Re: Vanguard vs. DFA when tax efficiency really matters

DTMVX is a Tax Managed fund so I would hope that it is a good smval choice when tax efficiency really matters. Altruist Financial Advisers recommends it over VBR. Scroll down to the "Taxable account" section of the page. However they like a different ETF even better. Robert T posted this c...
by Day9
Thu Apr 30, 2015 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's CEO on what has changed and what hasn't.
Replies: 4
Views: 1214

Re: Vanguard's CEO on what has changed and what hasn't.

The Vanguard effect is most definitely real. Why do you think Schwab made their Total Market ETF SCHB expense ratio 0.04%? Precisely because Vanguard's VTI costs 0.05%.
by Day9
Tue Apr 28, 2015 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PXSV has changed indexes
Replies: 128
Views: 11339

Re: PXSV has changed indexes

Day 9, Search the forum for MTUM or by user = Robert T and you will find much excellent due diligence on MTUM. The other ETF is a no-go from the low AUM alone. You will also find discussions regarding AQR's 5 million minimums which don't apply for certain funds at certain custodians (Fidelity and T...
by Day9
Mon Apr 27, 2015 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PXSV has changed indexes
Replies: 128
Views: 11339

Re: PXSV has changed indexes

. (iv) If you want to more explicitly target exposure to more factors than simply size and value (e.g. size, value, quality, momentum) then AQR small multifactor fits the criteria (just to note that the -2.4% trade costs of US small momentum-value-quality are directly from the AQR article–"A N...
by Day9
Mon Apr 27, 2015 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Janitor in Vermont leaves millions] A true Boglehead!
Replies: 55
Views: 4062

Re: WP: Janitor accumulates $8 million estate

But there is also a cautionary tale about recognizing the value of your finite time here on Earth. Perhaps learning to enjoy life while you can is part of that equation. It really boils my blood when I see this assumption that you must spend spend spend in order to live a good, happy, & fulfill...
by Day9
Fri Apr 24, 2015 1:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1279
Views: 249222

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I would love to see a 10 year (or long enough) chart of TSM with this threads creation date and the dates when it gets bumped highlighted.
by Day9
Thu Apr 23, 2015 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Age in Bonds Poll
Replies: 72
Views: 3931

Re: Age in Bonds Poll

I follow age in bonds but believe it is not appropriate for a typical investor (too conservative). If I were just graduating from college and entering the workforce in my 20's, I would be more like 90-100% stocks. For a 40 year old who hasn't saved up much, I don't see the point of 40% bonds. I thi...
by Day9
Tue Apr 21, 2015 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund now available
Replies: 49
Views: 7266

Re: Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund now available

Sure 0.53% is more than a money market but it's less than the 0.9%-1% you can get at some online high yield FDIC insured savings accounts.

The only reason I can think to prefer this fund over those accounts is the $250k limit.
by Day9
Tue Apr 21, 2015 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: What is your SWR in retirement?
Replies: 45
Views: 4087

Re: Retirees: What is your SWR in retirement?

A 3% rule for a 30 year retirement worked in all historical scenarios, even if you retired just before the great depression. However if you use a Monte Carlo simulation instead of historical data and assume 7% return, 2% inflation, and 20% standard deviation, a 3% rule only works in 73% of scenarios...
by Day9
Thu Apr 16, 2015 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I and EE Bonds - What will the new rate be?
Replies: 18
Views: 2257

Re: I and EE Bonds - What will the new rate be?

Just want to chime in and say regardless of their interest rate EE bonds are guaranteed to double after 20 years. That works out to a 3.53% rate if held for 20 years. 20 year treasuries yield 2.31% today. Of course you can sell treasuries on the secondary market but EE bonds must be held for 20 year...
by Day9
Thu Apr 16, 2015 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Less liquid counterpart to stocks?
Replies: 7
Views: 851

Re: Less liquid counterpart to stocks?

High expected return entails high risk. But high risk does not entail high expected returns.

Maybe you can look toward micro-cap stocks which tend to be less liquid and sometimes have higher expected returns.
by Day9
Thu Apr 16, 2015 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Saudi Arabia be added into Total International Stock?
Replies: 14
Views: 1674

Re: Will Saudi Arabia be added into Total International Stoc

Just want to chime in that valuation of state-owned, not publicly traded corporation Saudi Aramco is estimated from $781 billion to even $7 trillion. Apple's market cap at the end of last year was $647 billion. It has the highest revenue of any corporation in the world. FT Non-Public 150 - the full ...
by Day9
Wed Apr 15, 2015 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [retired guy said] terrible crash is coming
Replies: 71
Views: 8620

Re: [retired guy said] terrible crash is coming

Jack Bogle said if the market seems to be very overvalued to you, then take your 65% allocation to stocks and bring it to 50%. But the idea of selling all your stocks is ridiculous.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k6ra5POdsYg
by Day9
Tue Apr 14, 2015 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?
Replies: 744
Views: 104949

Re: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?

i've read in this thread the implied financing is 0.6%, a full percentage point below IB margin rates. why don't people just buy futures and hold collateral in 1% high yield fdic insured savings accounts? is this a free lunch? what is the best broker to buy futures? IB has low fees but has a require...
by Day9
Tue Apr 14, 2015 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?
Replies: 744
Views: 104949

Re: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?

aren't treasury futures just for speculation and not for long term investing? i say this because they don't yield coupon payments.
by Day9
Tue Apr 14, 2015 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth IRA for Teeneagers
Replies: 24
Views: 1495

Re: Roth IRA for Teeneagers

A friend of mine matched his teenage kid's earnings dollar-for-dollar if he contributed to his Roth IRA. I don't have kids but that sounds like good parenting to me.
by Day9
Wed Apr 08, 2015 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The $1 Million Goal: Source of Motivation or Discouragement?
Replies: 172
Views: 16387

Re: The $1 Million Goal: Source of Motivation or Discouragem

A 22-year old today who saves $23,500 per year (current 401k+IRA maximum contributions) and averaging compound 7% returns will reach $1m nominal in 20 years, when he is 42. Factoring in a modest 2% inflation estimate will tack on 4 more years to reach $1 million 2015 dollars. $50k is about the media...
by Day9
Tue Apr 07, 2015 12:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there Smart Beta in Corporate Bonds?
Replies: 35
Views: 3371

Re: Is there Smart Beta in Corporate Bonds?

This challenges the "Collective thoughts [investing mini-reference]" stickied thread in this forum by Robert T. Here are the relevant sections: Default Risk: NYU study: Most of the premium is explained by same factors that influence equity returns ""We show that expected default ...
by Day9
Thu Apr 02, 2015 1:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If long-term, why not just go really high risk?
Replies: 49
Views: 5116

Re: If long-term, why not just go really high risk?

There are long term risks to risky assets. You aren't absolved of all risk just because you have a long time horizon.

Here is a paper from UC Irvine http://merage.uci.edu/~jorion/papers/risk.pdf
by Day9
Tue Mar 31, 2015 2:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did you learn anything from 2008?
Replies: 105
Views: 9043

Re: Did you learn anything from 2008?

Mine was first university class to graduate after the 2008 crisis. I learned I am going to have to face different challenges than my parents' generation.
by Day9
Mon Mar 30, 2015 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Interest - No Where to Go But Up?
Replies: 8
Views: 1204

Re: Bond Interest - No Where to Go But Up?

At some point I would think that hoarding of physical Federal Reserve Notes would become a significant problem if nominal interest rates went sufficiently negative. There is a little over $4000 in Federal reserve notes per capita outstanding, so if everyone just decided to keep more than a few hund...
by Day9
Sun Mar 22, 2015 3:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Medium bond vs short + long bonds & rebalance
Replies: 9
Views: 1288

Re: Medium bond vs short + long bonds & rebalance

The higher convexity of the barbell portfolio enhances portfolio performance only in the presence of higher interest rate volatility. In a situation of low interest rate volatility the bullet portfolio will outperform the barbell.
by Day9
Fri Mar 20, 2015 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Collective thoughts [investing mini-reference]
Replies: 38
Views: 107478

Re: Collective thoughts [investing mini-reference]

This is such an amazing resource I cannot even articulate it. Thanks so much Robert T. I check this quite often and I would be grateful if you continue to update it with any new insights.
by Day9
Fri Mar 20, 2015 12:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An inspiring message for Bogleheads
Replies: 56
Views: 4512

Re: An inspiring message for Bogleheads

I too am in my twenties and discovered the Boglehead philosophy three years ago. I have been been following the principles as best I can, living well below my means and investing in broadly diversified, low cost, low turnover funds in a tax efficient manner. My family is in a much more secure place ...
by Day9
Thu Mar 19, 2015 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone concerned about their bond holdings?
Replies: 58
Views: 6376

Re: Anyone concerned about their bond holdings?

We had a recent thread about this. The consensus was that most Bogleheads have crafted an allocation that they are comfortable enough with to stay the course.

http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=160412
by Day9
Thu Mar 19, 2015 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [New Member Observations- Covered Calls, Financial Advisors]
Replies: 227
Views: 18509

Re: Observations from a first time poster, long time reader.

I'd take the cute little saying of the Efficient Market Hypothesis over OP's only justification for the strategy - a cute little saying that the people on the other side of the trade are [irrational] gamblers. While there are far worse strategies I put them in the flawed category and don't like usin...
by Day9
Thu Mar 19, 2015 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [New Member Observations- Covered Calls, Financial Advisors]
Replies: 227
Views: 18509

Re: Observations from a first time poster, long time reader.

The premium for writing a covered call 8% out of the money & 3 months away would be very small, pennies even. Gaining only 8% and incurring taxable events when the market rises 26.06% is a horrible result. The market has down days/months/years and reversion to the mean is a real phenomenon and m...
by Day9
Wed Mar 18, 2015 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dollar falls after Fed policy statement released
Replies: 10
Views: 1223

Dollar falls after Fed policy statement released

Tthe Fed dropped its promise to be "patient" as it weighs interest rate hikes. Yellen said "Just because we removed the word 'patient,' doesn't mean we will be impatient." This chart shows how UUP, a USD bullish ETF fell sharply while US stocks, foreign stocks, long term bonds, a...
by Day9
Wed Mar 18, 2015 1:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [New Member Observations- Covered Calls, Financial Advisors]
Replies: 227
Views: 18509

Re: Observations from a first time poster, long time reader.

Plugging that $1.3m into a plain old 3 Fund Portfolio, a la Bogle at the 50/50 AA returns about double that. I've never heard of "covered calls" so clearly I shouldn't get involved in them, but with the info I just posted, why is a CC better than the 3 Fund approach? You could have a 3-fu...
by Day9
Tue Mar 17, 2015 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are long term bonds optimal for long investment horizons?
Replies: 3
Views: 571

Re: Are long term bonds optimal for long investment horizons

This would make sense with long-term TIPS , but not with long-term nominal bonds. If you are 30 years from retirement and put $45K into 30-year zero-coupon Treasuries (which currently yield 2.71%), you would be guaranteed $100K in 30 years, but you would not have any guarantee how many years of liv...
by Day9
Tue Mar 17, 2015 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [New Member Observations- Covered Calls, Financial Advisors]
Replies: 227
Views: 18509

Re: Observations from a first time poster, long time reader.

Here's a chart of VFIAX (Vanguards S&P500 Fund) compared to BXM (CBOE Buy/Write index) and DIA (A DJIA ETF) compared to BXD (Another Buy/Write index based on the DJIA) http://i62.tinypic.com/30m26pj.png Adding Vanguard balanced fund http://i62.tinypic.com/2qd6913.png While there are far worse st...
by Day9
Mon Mar 16, 2015 11:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article: The Death of The Millionaire Next Door Dream
Replies: 20
Views: 5543

Re: Article: The Death of The Millionaire Next Door Dream

Bogleheads don't overlap with the FIRE (Financial Independence, Retire Early) crowd that much (Many FIRE people are Bogleheads but most Bogleheads are not FIRE people). There is enough pressure in this society to be a consumer. Even if you are not aiming for early retirement it is good to be exposed...
by Day9
Mon Mar 16, 2015 11:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is MicroCap on sale?
Replies: 11
Views: 1472

Re: Is MicroCap on sale?

Micro cap funds can have very high tracking error due to the extreme illiquidity of the underlying stocks. On one hand, only big money can get exposure to microcaps by doing it themselves instead of using funds and avoid this tracking error. On the other hand, big money cannot invest too much into m...
by Day9
Mon Mar 16, 2015 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: When to pay down debt rather than invest
Replies: 49
Views: 4161

Re: Poll: When to pay down debt rather than invest

Having debt in addition to stock and bond investments is like the opposite of holding cash in addition to a stock and bond portfolio. It is risky while holding cash is conservative. On the other hand you can cash out investments in a pinch but you cannot get money back that you used to pay off a debt.
by Day9
Fri Mar 13, 2015 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed: US Household Wealth rises by 1.9% hitting $83 Trillion
Replies: 4
Views: 631

Re: Fed: US Household Wealth rises by 1.9% hitting $83 Trill

That puts Bill Gates at about 0.1% of all total wealth in the US. Or 1/1000 out of a population of 320 million. There are 117,538,000 households in the United States. Probably better to use this figure as 320 million includes children. I presume that US household wealth is much higher than any othe...
by Day9
Thu Mar 12, 2015 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international is too much?
Replies: 113
Views: 9879

Re: How much international is too much?

Is there an agreed upon upper limit of international stock exposure? One way to think about an upper limit on international stocks is to look at revenue exposure This is a good point but one thing to keep in mind for people who tilt is that small and small value US stocks tend to get more of their ...

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