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Re: Yet another SWR article - 3% is the new 4%

Whenever we discuss SWR it is assumed that the retiree withdraws 4% (or whatever) during his first year then adjusts for inflation and keeps withdrawing that each and every year. This seems too Ivory Tower and theoretical to me. I think it is more practical to see the research done on variable withd...
by Day9
Thu Feb 27, 2014 6:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yet another SWR article - 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 9
Views: 1058

Re: New Invester age 23

Target date funds are great. So are Vanguard's Total Stock Market and Total International Market index funds.

As a new accumulator, savings rate is much more important than fund selection. Focus your energy on increasing your income and reducing your expenses!
by Day9
Thu Feb 27, 2014 6:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Invester age 23
Replies: 19
Views: 974

Re: MPT, Markowitz, Effective Frontier and Vanguard, NOT!

did i miss it? did OP post his portfolios? or did he just post the backtested restults?
by Day9
Sat Feb 15, 2014 3:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MPT, Markowitz, Efficient Frontier and Vanguard, NOT!
Replies: 66
Views: 3438

Re: A Simple Portfolio

Regarding Total World Stock Index: When will admiral shares be available? I want to simplify my portfoloio but I can't justify buying this instead of lower cost admiral share Total Stock and Total International
by Day9
Thu Jan 23, 2014 4:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Simple Portfolio [Equity Allocation]
Replies: 39
Views: 2654

Re: A couple thoughts for young accumulators

What do you know that the rest of us don't know? Thirty somethings I know don't bother investing in bonds. Too little return for the risk and they have at least 30 more years to invest. I am retired but don't see a need to hold a healthy amount (whatever that vague term means) in bonds (which are g...
by Day9
Thu Jan 23, 2014 3:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A couple thoughts for young accumulators
Replies: 10
Views: 2560

A couple thoughts for young accumulators

I am a young person (mid 20s) who is very much in the accumulation phase. I opted for a 90/10 stock/bond allocation and I've had the following thoughts. Longer term, higher quality bonds offer better diversification benefits in a stock dominated portoflio. Corporates correlate too highly with the ot...
by Day9
Tue Jan 21, 2014 4:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A couple thoughts for young accumulators
Replies: 10
Views: 2560

Re: Good Bogleheads Podcasts?

The issue Bogleheads have with Dave Ramsey is that he promises 10% returns by buying expensive actively managed mutual funds. It's a rite of passage for a Boglehead to prove that kind of statement wrong (or at least show convincing evidence against it) Some people have problems with Ramsey's Christi...
by Day9
Thu Jan 16, 2014 5:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good Bogleheads Podcasts?
Replies: 12
Views: 1213

Re: A levered 50/50 portfolio is better than a 90/10 one?

Thanks grayfox for your thoughtful reply that was not just a thoughtless platitude.
by Day9
Sat Nov 23, 2013 11:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A levered 50/50 portfolio is better than a 90/10 one?
Replies: 43
Views: 3914

A levered 50/50 portfolio is better than a 90/10 one?

According to Modern portfolio theory, it could be better (more reward with less risk) to have a leveraged 50/50 portfolio than a 90/10 unlevered portfolio, depending on the cost of leverage and the covariance between stocks and bonds. Would someone be able to demonstrate a sample, hypothetical cost ...
by Day9
Sat Nov 23, 2013 10:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A levered 50/50 portfolio is better than a 90/10 one?
Replies: 43
Views: 3914

Re: "Stocks are about to plunge, Wells Fargo warns"

How much dry power cash reserves does Wells Fargo have I wonder? They might benefit from causing a sell off.
by Day9
Fri Sep 20, 2013 5:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stocks are about to plunge, Wells Fargo warns"
Replies: 33
Views: 5856

I have been a boglehead for 1 year! + Portfolio

Hi Bogleheads, I am here for a portfolio checkup. I am a young investor very much in the accumulation phase. One year ago I decided to adhere to the Boglehead investment philosophy and other ideas I learned in this community. I welcome any kind of question, comment, or suggestion. I have some questi...
by Day9
Thu Sep 19, 2013 8:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I have been a boglehead for 1 year! + Portfolio
Replies: 3
Views: 992

Re: Young Investor - Appropriate Weight Towards Small & Mid

^ Sounds like you might benefit from Trev H's work to breakdown LB/LV/SB/SV into the simplest arrangement with the same returns: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4 I'd also read also Rodc's work comparing the 3x33 to other configurations, including Trev H's SUBH: Updated figures and results on s...
by Day9
Mon Sep 16, 2013 7:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young Investor - Appropriate Weight Towards Small & Mid Caps
Replies: 13
Views: 1133

Re: Young Investor - Appropriate Weight Towards Small & Mid

I'm 25. My US equity is split like this:

25% TSM

25% Large Cap Value

25% Small/Mid Cap Blend

25% Small Cap Value

In my 60/30/10, domestic/int'l/bonds portfolio this becomes 15/15/15/15 of my total portfolio. Easy to understand and rebalance.
by Day9
Mon Sep 16, 2013 1:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young Investor - Appropriate Weight Towards Small & Mid Caps
Replies: 13
Views: 1133

How much do I need to buy 0 coupon treasury from Vanguard?

Hi Bogleheads, I am not interested in Vanguard's EDV ETF nor any index fund similar to it. I want to buy an individual zero coupon Treasury STRIPS bond that will mature in 14 years in 2027. And I would like to do it in my Vanguard brokerage account. I might hold to maturity and I might sell it befor...
by Day9
Wed Sep 11, 2013 6:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How much do I need to buy 0 coupon treasury from Vanguard?
Replies: 2
Views: 388

Re: bad time for bonds?

This program aired 3 days ago. Mr Kessler argues among other things that every diversified portfolio should hold 30 year Treasury STRIPS. Worst case you get guaranteed 4% returns for 30 years. In a better case if rates drop 1% (which he argues convincingly is possible) you gain 25%. http://www.youtu...
by Day9
Mon Sep 09, 2013 10:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bad time for bonds?
Replies: 37
Views: 3714

Re: 75% equity is max?

I am 90-10 stocks-bonds for retirement but all my bonds are Long term Treasury Bonds. I am only 25 and my portfolio is only high 5-figures so I am very much in accumulation phase. The long term treasuries correlate very weakly with stocks. To me bonds are not for safety nor income like most boglehea...
by Day9
Mon Sep 09, 2013 12:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 75% equity is max?
Replies: 48
Views: 5487

Re: Covestor: "Why active management is better than passive"

its not just the sum of professional active managers that compose the market. foolish emotional retail investors participate in the market too.
by Day9
Wed Sep 04, 2013 3:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Covestor: "Why active management is better than passive"
Replies: 15
Views: 2340

Re: I do not understand bonds

that is only true for correlation negative 1. it could have correlation between 0 and negative 1
by Day9
Mon Aug 26, 2013 10:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I do not understand bonds
Replies: 10
Views: 1668

How are people who retired in 1980, 1990, and 2000 doing?

How are people who retired in 1980, 1990, and 2000 doing? Who is doing the best and who is doing the worst? Assume whatever you like, say the classic 60-40 portfolio slowly becoming a 40-60 portfolio. What withdrawal rates could each of these 3 retiree cohorts have survived on?
by Day9
Tue Aug 13, 2013 4:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are people who retired in 1980, 1990, and 2000 doing?
Replies: 11
Views: 2195

Can you tax loss harvest short term losses with long gains?

If I sell an ETF with short term losses, could this offset some long-term capital gains tax from selling a few individual stocks I have held for years that have appreciated?

Thanks!
by Day9
Tue Aug 13, 2013 4:15 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can you tax loss harvest short term losses with long gains?
Replies: 6
Views: 413

Re: New Chinese version of The Bogleheads' Guide to Investin

I wonder if they will understand the joke about how Boglehead sounds like Bobblehead.

Apparently they do have bobbleheads in China :)
by Day9
Mon Aug 12, 2013 6:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Chinese version of The Bogleheads' Guide to Investing
Replies: 16
Views: 1202

Re: Is the bond market efficient?

The US treasury market might be the most efficient market of all time. As you get junkier and more obscure i wouldnt be surprised if those markets get less efficient
by Day9
Sun Aug 11, 2013 7:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the bond market efficient?
Replies: 11
Views: 917

Re: Bogleheads expressed in a comic

I prefer Dilbert!
by Day9
Tue Aug 06, 2013 4:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads expressed in a comic
Replies: 3
Views: 764

Should I buy International REIT Index Fund?

Hi Bogleheads, In my 401k I have the option to buy International REIT index fund (tracks FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed ex-U.S. Rental Index) with a 0.37% ER I like REITs but don't own any REIT fund because I am satisfied with the proportion in my heavy SCV tilt. I would like to allocate 5% or maybe 10%...
by Day9
Mon Aug 05, 2013 4:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I buy International REIT Index Fund?
Replies: 1
Views: 245

What kind of tax does big money pay?

Most people here would agree that large-cap US stocks are efficiently priced, But efficiently priced for what kind of investor? Some investors pay 15% tax on dividends and some pay 0%. I would like to assert that mainstream high-volume and liquid securities and investments are efficiently priced for...
by Day9
Thu Jul 25, 2013 5:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What kind of tax does big money pay?
Replies: 8
Views: 1095

Re: dividend vs stock price

It's easy to see that reinvesting dividends results in exponential growth of your capital. It's not as obvious that this is the case for non-dividend paying stocks.
by Day9
Thu Jul 25, 2013 4:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: dividend vs stock price
Replies: 16
Views: 1174

Re: Bond Barbell

Honest question: Why not park it all in Total Bond Market Index and call it a day?
by Day9
Wed Jul 24, 2013 3:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Barbell
Replies: 12
Views: 1073

Re: pick up double major or finish college in 3 years?

I majored in Computer Science (for a job) and minored in Philosophy (for the fulfillment) and did not graduate early. I never regretted my choice.

A friend graduated in 3 years but she regrets not having the full "college experience".
by Day9
Wed Jul 24, 2013 3:02 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: pick up double major or finish college in 3 years?
Replies: 60
Views: 2518

Re: 15% for retirement

Assumptions: You work from 25-65, for 40 years. Your balanced portfolio returns 6% CAGR. You use a 4% Safe Withdrawl rate. Your income does not change throughout your career (for simplicity's sake) If you make the assumptions above then you will be able to have the same income in retirement as you d...
by Day9
Mon Jul 15, 2013 4:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 15% for retirement
Replies: 12
Views: 2509

Probabilities that different classes of bonds will default?

What is the probability that a US Treasury Bond will default? Is it 0%? Is it non-zero but pretty darn close? What about government agency bonds? Municipal bonds? If I am holding bonds to maturity , and if I can get a better interest rate from a Government Agency Bond than I can get from a US Treasu...
by Day9
Mon Jul 15, 2013 4:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Probabilities that different classes of bonds will default?
Replies: 4
Views: 413

Under what conditions is it a good idea to use HSA as an IRA

As Bogleheads we understand that we can't control the markets, but we can control the fees we pay and the tax benefits we take advantage of. Under what conditions is it a good idea for someone to use a Health Savings Account as a 2nd IRA? I would assume she ought to be maxing her IRA, and perhaps he...
by Day9
Thu Jul 11, 2013 7:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Under what conditions is it a good idea to use HSA as an IRA
Replies: 30
Views: 1952

Re: Would 100% REITs ever make sense?

You could reduce risk significantly by mixing in some traditional Dividend Appreciation stocks, or by using a fund like VIG. Most people would go with the traditional dividend appreciation stocks as a core holding, and a strong tilt toward REITs. Dividend appreciation is a fine strategy for it's eas...
by Day9
Mon Jun 24, 2013 1:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Would 100% REITs ever make sense?
Replies: 16
Views: 1906

Would you buy Total World index if it had Admiral Shares?

VTWSX and the ETF version VT are Vanguard's Total World stock index funds. They are about 53% North America, 47% Rest of World The only thing stopping me from making this my core stock holding, and maybe even my ONLY stock holding is that the expense ratio is 0.35% for the fund and 0.19% for the ETF...
by Day9
Wed Jun 19, 2013 4:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you buy Total World index if it had Admiral Shares?
Replies: 40
Views: 3433

Re: Asset Allocation

http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Principles_of_Tax-Efficient_Fund_Placement This wiki describes how some investments are more tax inefficient than others and you get a bigger benefit by putting those in tax-advantaged accounts. Perhaps you would save on some taxes by putting fixed income in your retir...
by Day9
Wed Jun 19, 2013 3:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation
Replies: 2
Views: 336

VFISX expense ratio is higher than its SEC yield

Hi Bogleheads, The Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Fund Investor Shares expense ratio (0.20%) is higher than its SEC yield (0.12%). The admiral shares fund has a $50k minimum. Does this mean that VFISX is a fundamentally bad investment? Isn't it guaranteed to lose nominal value unless the short term in...
by Day9
Wed Apr 10, 2013 10:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VFISX expense ratio is higher than its SEC yield
Replies: 5
Views: 793

My thoughts on REITs

Hi Bogleheads, I started lurking over a year ago (I'm still new) but this is the first youtube video I have made: Why own REITs? I won't post any more videos here I just wanted to say that 3-fund portfolio is so elegant and I have converted a few of my fellow young coworkers. REITs are one of many e...
by Day9
Thu Apr 04, 2013 12:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My thoughts on REITs
Replies: 20
Views: 3535

Jack Bogle on CNBC warns about bumpy ride next decade

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000158038 "prepare for at least two declines of 25-30%, maybe even 50%, in the coming decade" "We went down very fast and it took us about 4 years to come back which is relatively normal" Mr Bogle comments on government policies especially on...
by Day9
Mon Apr 01, 2013 7:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle on CNBC warns about bumpy ride next decade
Replies: 35
Views: 6120

Re: Infinite money strategy

Infinite Chocolate (Replace with Gold bars for infinite money)

[img]http:%20//%20i.imgur.com/qjjlkGm.gif[/img]

[animated image link broken by admin LadyGeek]
by Day9
Mon Apr 01, 2013 6:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Infinite money strategy
Replies: 5
Views: 983

Re: What to do about Bonds

Thanks Eric I will chew on and thoroughly digest this data and analysis you have brought to light
by Day9
Mon Apr 01, 2013 4:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do about Bonds
Replies: 19
Views: 2095

Re: What to do about Bonds

Recency Alert! :happy Bond returns during all 12 month periods when TSM declined (1963-1999): 1mo = +7.4% 1yr = +7.8% 5yr = +5.0% 20yr = +1.1% Eric Thanks Eric I am very interested to find your source on this. I am having trouble finding data all the way back to 1963 like you did. I can provide a b...
by Day9
Mon Apr 01, 2013 3:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do about Bonds
Replies: 19
Views: 2095

Re: What to do about Bonds

"The purity of noncallable, long-term, default-free Treasury bonds provides the most powerful diversification to investor portfolios". -David Swenson PhD, CIO Yale Endowment I am a young aggressive investor. In my portfolio the only role of bonds is as a diversification to my massive alloc...
by Day9
Mon Apr 01, 2013 3:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do about Bonds
Replies: 19
Views: 2095

Re: What investment does well as interest rates rise?

Define "well." An asset class that exploits rising interest rates for an outsized gain. In other words, "well" == better than just keeping your fixed-income really short (or in cash). I asked this question a few years ago. The consensus was: nothing. There are some gimmicky fund...
by Day9
Mon Apr 01, 2013 3:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What investment does well as interest rates rise?
Replies: 29
Views: 4530

Re: I Found a Great Hedge Fund.

Hedge fund exposure can be part of a diversified portfolio because some offer "Absolute Return", that is they can get returns regardless of which direction the stock market is going. However most (but certainly not all!) people on this forum don't have connections and/or capital to use hed...
by Day9
Mon Apr 01, 2013 3:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Found a Great Hedge Fund.
Replies: 7
Views: 1577

Re: Individual Stocks vs Vanguard ETF's/Mutual Funds

For the low-cost champions out there, Individual stocks have a 0.00% Expense Ratio
by Day9
Sun Mar 31, 2013 5:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Individual Stocks vs Vanguard ETF's/Mutual Funds
Replies: 29
Views: 2880

Re: Choosing the "right" international allocation

When you invest in foreign stocks don't you take currency risk? They are priced in Euro, Yen, Sterling, and others. Doesn't this add an extra layer of risk that encourages you to allocate less than the true market cap? I'm a proud American and I will never have more foreign than domestic stocks. 67/...
by Day9
Sun Mar 31, 2013 5:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Choosing the "right" international allocation
Replies: 48
Views: 2644

What investment does well as interest rates rise?

As interest rates rise your bonds become less valuable on the secondary market. Intervention by the Fed has been good for stocks and a rise in interest rates would imply the end of these activities so rising interest rates would also be bad for stocks. So if both stock and bonds lose value in an env...
by Day9
Sat Mar 30, 2013 11:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What investment does well as interest rates rise?
Replies: 29
Views: 4530

Re: Young Investor Seeking Guidance

If you have 2 more years of undergrad plus law school it is likely you will spend all this money within 6 years. Tuition is higher than some of the older folk on this forum realize. So you're right to not want to take risk. I agree with Chief Wiggum, a money market account sounds good. You might wan...
by Day9
Sat Mar 30, 2013 3:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young Investor Seeking Guidance
Replies: 7
Views: 790

Re: I want Treasuries should I buy VGIT?

Thanks again everyone to your replies. I will try to respond to you all: My portfolio wants treasuries because it is the only investment that pays you to hedge against the stock market. Some people short SPY in their portfolio of individual stocks, some buy put options on SPY. Obviously those 2 stra...
by Day9
Sat Mar 30, 2013 3:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I want Treasuries should I buy VGIT?
Replies: 22
Views: 1541
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