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Re: Mankiw suggests Vanguard Total World Stock ETF

Yes that is one problem with the world fund, it has a higher expense ratio than if you held the total US market etf and Total International etf. Another problem is the number of stocks. Vanguard World has about 4k stocks if you bought total US and Total Int. You would have about 6k stocks. Dave
by DaveS
Mon May 27, 2013 4:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mankiw suggests Vanguard Total World Stock ETF
Replies: 12
Views: 2210

Re: Muni Bond ETFs -- No Vanguard options?

Yup. If your too snooty to have an admiral fund, the ETF TFI is a very good substitute. Dave
by DaveS
Fri May 17, 2013 7:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Muni Bond ETFs -- No Vanguard options?
Replies: 18
Views: 1996

Re: Impact of future earnings on portfolio mix?

Larry Swedroe discusses this in his recent books. Do you have less of a need to take risk given your financial picture. Are you investing for yourself or your heirs. Mostly he cautions, the richer you are the less risk you need to take on. He refers to rich people who take a flyer on some risky asse...
by DaveS
Fri May 17, 2013 10:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Impact of future earnings on portfolio mix?
Replies: 1
Views: 117

Re: Thought on my portfolio

Stop buying individual stocks. Your expenses to have the portfolio you have must be really substantial. Money that goes to commissions does not earn you money. Buy indexed etf's or invest in funds at a low cost mutual find provider such as Vanguard. Secondly, an "emergency fund" consisting...
by DaveS
Fri May 17, 2013 3:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thought on my portfolio
Replies: 4
Views: 449

Re: Allocation in Multiple Accounts - Portfolio Review

I don't have a problem with what you propose which is to in general replicate the target fund. From your library take out one of the early Swedroe Books or William Bernstein books. The Swedroe books are The Only Investment Guide You Will Ever Need, and What Wall Street Does Not Want You to Know. The...
by DaveS
Thu May 16, 2013 11:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Allocation in Multiple Accounts - Portfolio Review
Replies: 5
Views: 360

Re: The new profitability factor, US and int'l evidence

I spent several years getting used to "Value" stocks being the stocks of distressed companies, an exact quote from your first book. As a result it's going to take a while to embrace the concept that profitable, i.e. companies that are not distressed, will out perform. I think Marx may have...
by DaveS
Tue May 14, 2013 7:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The new profitability factor, US and int'l evidence
Replies: 169
Views: 11607

Re: Portfolio Review

There is only one low cost bond fund that you list. I don't know anything about it When you have an asset class that is now only yielding 2%, lowering costs is even more important than usual. Buy it, or get some of the 2015 or 2020 target fund - which is a sneaky way of buying mostly bonds.
by DaveS
Mon May 13, 2013 11:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review
Replies: 3
Views: 385

Re: Bond bubble + Bnd total bond 80 percent turnover?

I defiantly am not criticizing the fund which I happen to hold. About 7 years ago Total Bond held commercial paper with maturities as short as 90 days and their turnover was more than 100%. Now they don't buy anything with a maturity shorter than a year. Once you understand the reason for it, the tu...
by DaveS
Sun May 12, 2013 10:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond bubble + Bnd total bond 80 percent turnover?
Replies: 12
Views: 2360

Re: Portfolio Review

Don't walk, run away from those high cost funds in your 401. The extra 1% a year just for the management fee adds up to a lot of lost appreciation over 30+ years. The turnover is less important than the fee because your not subject to gains taxes in a tax free account. But the brokerage commissions ...
by DaveS
Sat May 11, 2013 7:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review
Replies: 14
Views: 1876

Re: Bond bubble + Bnd total bond 80 percent turnover?

My source is that i have owned TBM for years and periodically glance at the holdings. Dave
by DaveS
Sat May 11, 2013 7:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond bubble + Bnd total bond 80 percent turnover?
Replies: 12
Views: 2360

Re: Bond bubble + Bnd total bond 80 percent turnover?

The problem isn't the fund it's the index. The idea of the agg. bond index is to create a statistically accurate reflection of the bond market. If they have a 30 year bond one year, the next year you would think it would be the 29 year bond. No, they sell it and replace it with a more statistically ...
by DaveS
Sat May 11, 2013 9:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond bubble + Bnd total bond 80 percent turnover?
Replies: 12
Views: 2360

Re: Keep All Bonds in Advantaged or Take Advantage of Value?

I don't know your state, mine does not have an income tax so I can do national muni bonds which are more diversified than single state. The thing I noticed about your post is you said you have three value funds. Most who tilt to value don't bother with having a mid cap value fund. The theory being t...
by DaveS
Thu May 09, 2013 11:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Keep All Bonds in Advantaged or Take Advantage of Value?
Replies: 5
Views: 770

Re: Investment Strategy Thoughts (Attorney)

I am a retired lawyer. First, you and yours should realize that your income, even in a high expense city, is above average for lawyers, so you should not quit your jobs unless you have offers paying as much. Secondly, paying down debt should be only after you have maximized contributions to tax free...
by DaveS
Sun May 05, 2013 4:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment Strategy Thoughts (Attorney)
Replies: 5
Views: 465

Re: Portfolio Review

OK I will bite. 1) The book you want to get from your library is the first Swedroe book, The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You'll Ever Need. Or one of his later books. 2) A portfolio that contains some bonds, over longer periods, consistently beats a 100% equity portfolio because it do...
by DaveS
Sun May 05, 2013 4:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review
Replies: 11
Views: 1118

Re: Young Investor With Questions

Here is an answer from an old investor who learned things the hard way. First, I don't know what the Capital Preservation fund is. Secondly, I think the rest of what your doing is fine. I note you picked lower cost index options, and that your stock, bond, and international allocations are rational ...
by DaveS
Sat May 04, 2013 9:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young Investor With Questions
Replies: 3
Views: 437

Re: First time poster, 30 year old with investment plan

At your level of investing most Bogleheads recommend a 3 fund portfolio. 1) A total US market if available or 500 index if not; 2) a total international/emerging fund 3) an intermediate bond fund such as Vanguard Total Bond. 1) might be 50%, 2) 30% and 3) 20% of funds invested, not counting emergenc...
by DaveS
Sat May 04, 2013 7:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First time poster, 30 year old with investment plan
Replies: 17
Views: 2143

Re: Splitting my portfolio across taxed/non-taxed accounts

What your proposing makes sense. I don't have a problem with 80/20 either. Since I am a bit more than twice your age I will tell you that the size of a bond holding should be high if you think your the kind of a person who would panic and sell out at a stock market low. If you can stand the volatili...
by DaveS
Fri May 03, 2013 10:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Splitting my portfolio across taxed/non-taxed accounts
Replies: 7
Views: 1196

Re: Requesting Help with 401k Options

Not having really good retirement options is fairly common. I would just have the 500 index and the Pimco bond fund. Then I would hope to soon be able to open an additional account and put Vanguard Total International there. The alternative is a much higher cost Fido target retirement fund. Costs ar...
by DaveS
Fri May 03, 2013 8:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Requesting Help with 401k Options
Replies: 3
Views: 372

Re: Proposed 401K funds

It looks very good to me. There are a couple of funds I would not bother with. Mid value and Intermediate Treasury come to mind. If I were to add one fund it would be Vanguard Intermediate Term Investment Grade bond fund. Recently Jack Bogle in an interview called for a corporate bond index. The fun...
by DaveS
Wed Apr 24, 2013 6:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Proposed 401K funds
Replies: 13
Views: 592

Re: Which portfolio is better?

28% in Emerging is an overweight. Also the VIG etf is similar to the large cap portion of total market. I don't think natural resources is really an asset class. The combination of funds seems to be based on speculative tilt based on hunches that might not pay off. Why not three funds, Vanguard Tota...
by DaveS
Fri Apr 19, 2013 2:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which portfolio is better?
Replies: 5
Views: 710

Re: bond funds

That would give you an average duration of about 3.5 which is conservative but perhaps appropriate given your outlook. By comparison total bond is about 5.6. The yield is going to be low, around 3% or less. But yields are pathetic everywhere and trying to do better yield wise means taking on more ri...
by DaveS
Fri Apr 19, 2013 2:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: bond funds
Replies: 1
Views: 307

Re: Portfolio Help - bond fund advice needed

With interest rates at historic lows the most likely direction for them is to rise at some unknown point in the future. If and when that happens a bond fund will decline by it's duration for each 1% increase in rates. Historically rates average around 5% and are about 2% now. So if rates return to n...
by DaveS
Sat Apr 13, 2013 12:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Help - bond fund advice needed
Replies: 2
Views: 416

Re: Need Advice on AA. New here [Portfolio help]

There is a lot of confusing noise in the investment world. So you don't want to pay too much attention to people who are paid to talk 30 + minutes a day. They have to say something even if they can't think of anything intelligent to say. If you put all your money into something like Life Strategy Mo...
by DaveS
Sat Apr 06, 2013 10:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need Advice on AA. New here [Portfolio help]
Replies: 12
Views: 873

Re: Portfolio Configuration for New Investor Age 27

I doubt that the 2050 is the only Target Date fund available to you. If they have a 2040 or even a 2030 it should be higher in bonds than the longer fund. So you could shorten the target and get to the allocation you want for now, change it in the future if you want. You don't worry about paying cap...
by DaveS
Sat Apr 06, 2013 9:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Configuration for New Investor Age 27
Replies: 12
Views: 884

Re: Munis and Stockton California

The default rate on muni's is practically non existent. Last time I looked which was more than a year ago it was .003% At the state level there has not been a Governmental Operation bond default since Arkansas in the dust bowl era. Think of all the municipalities in the US and I can practically name...
by DaveS
Tue Apr 02, 2013 9:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Munis and Stockton California
Replies: 18
Views: 1790

I Found a Great Hedge Fund.

Happy April Fools Day folks. Dave
by DaveS
Mon Apr 01, 2013 10:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Found a Great Hedge Fund.
Replies: 7
Views: 1585

Re: Requesting help with portfolio restructuring

For all that typing you deserve more response than you have been getting. Here are some general observations. You might consider the fact you have a defined benefit plan as making retirement less of a risk, so maybe you can afford to have less in bonds. I am kind of the reverse. I worry about the lo...
by DaveS
Fri Mar 29, 2013 1:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Requesting help with portfolio restructuring
Replies: 5
Views: 585

Re: When to dump bonds? [Portfolio help]

I don't agree with a lot of the advice you have been given. 1) Regarding age in bonds etc. Your parents are well enough off that they are really investing for their heirs anyway. So I don't have a problem with 30% or maybe even 20% bonds. In a couple of the Swedroe books he refers to possible alloca...
by DaveS
Fri Mar 29, 2013 12:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When to dump bonds? [Portfolio help]
Replies: 21
Views: 3154

Re: What to do with new money?

I am about your age and station in life. I look at what you have and think, this guy needs more international/emerging. So that is where I would put the money up to the point where your 30-40% international. My reasoning is diversity, and because international stocks have been kept down by events in...
by DaveS
Mon Mar 25, 2013 1:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with new money?
Replies: 1
Views: 534

Re: Invested in a bunch of funds (need help on Roth IRA)

I had a friend who some time ago worked for a company with a 401 with NY life. It was a very expensive plan and the costs take a big chunk out of appreciation. And when she changed jobs, they socked her with a outrageous withdrawal fee. Anyway, your idea of the Roth at Vanguard is a good one and STA...
by DaveS
Fri Mar 22, 2013 8:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment Advice
Replies: 7
Views: 858

Re: Looking for some advice with an upcoming windfall

In addition to the wiki article a rule of thumb is that if your saving for a down payment or some other event. Use a bond fund with a duration no longer than the period till you will need the money. Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade comes to mind if you likely to need the money in a couple of yea...
by DaveS
Tue Mar 19, 2013 11:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for some advice with an upcoming windfall
Replies: 3
Views: 410

Re: What to do with governmental 457?

I would roll it to Vanguard IRA in an instant. Your paying about twice what they charge and you will be paying that much more for 30 years or more. If you have some doubts about where to put it just pick a Vanguard target retirement fund. Also having an IRA invites you to make contributions to it in...
by DaveS
Tue Mar 19, 2013 11:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with governmental 457?
Replies: 7
Views: 378

Re: Portfolio Review/401k Advice - Age 29

You know, the choices in the 401 are so bad it's as if someone got paid off. I would read the article in the wiki about how to talk to your HR person about what is in the 401. Search for the article "How to campaign for a better 401k." Then I would get some co workers together and have the...
by DaveS
Mon Mar 18, 2013 11:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review/401k Advice - Age 29
Replies: 4
Views: 1513

Re: Portfolio Questions

Yes I would split it. Dave
by DaveS
Sun Mar 17, 2013 1:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Questions
Replies: 6
Views: 527

Re: Newbie real estate question

I am a bankruptcy lawyer. I have a lot of customers who got into real estate without knowing what they were doing. Dave
by DaveS
Sat Mar 16, 2013 1:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Newbie real estate question
Replies: 12
Views: 1278

Re: Portfolio Advice

I can harp quite a bit about REIT. It consists of 2% of the total US stock market. So 10% is to overweight it by 500%. Then you look at where it is valuation wise. In 1999 REITs sold for about 70% of the value of the underling real estate. Today it's 230%. In 1999 REITs sold for about 15 times earni...
by DaveS
Fri Mar 15, 2013 12:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Advice
Replies: 3
Views: 466

Re: Making Changes - See What You Think

I don't know who gave you the idea about bonds, vs. stocks in tax free being an issue because it's not. You want tax efficient assets in taxable and tax inefficient assets in tax free. In order of tax efficiency worst to best, taxable bonds, REIT, Small Value, Large Value, Large Blend, International...
by DaveS
Thu Mar 14, 2013 5:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Making Changes - See What You Think
Replies: 4
Views: 423

Re: Portfolio Advice

The Vanguard Small Value fund is 15% REIT so you should factor that into your allocation. Frankly REITS are now so over valued I just have the Small Value fund. Tilting to small value works over longer periods of time. Since Financial stocks are also value stocks the financial crash of 2008 makes th...
by DaveS
Thu Mar 14, 2013 4:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Advice
Replies: 3
Views: 466

Re: Floundering seniors must preserve capital - maximize inc

I get the impression that for me to give you a specific plan that you would actually follow would require something about as long as a book. Instead go to the library and check out one of the following. Bernstein, The Investors Manifesto, or The Four Pillars of investing. Or Swedroe, What Wall Stree...
by DaveS
Thu Mar 14, 2013 4:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Floundering seniors must preserve capital - maximize income
Replies: 15
Views: 2714

Re: Where to put Profits? Don't trust Bond Funds

Send it to me. Alternatively I-bonds from treasury direct or CD's. They don't lose principle if rates rise. Frankly your fear of a bond decline due to rising rates is overstated. Something like Vanguard Short term Investment Grade has a short enough duration that it does not go down much in a rising...
by DaveS
Thu Mar 14, 2013 4:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to put Profits? Don't trust Bond Funds
Replies: 37
Views: 3191

Re: Sallie Mae loan servicer / death of co-signer

Legally the decision to accelerate has to be made in good faith. The legal basis is that in every contract is an implied covenant of good faith and fair dealing. This is often the theory advanced in lender liability cases. So the fact the person you talked to might have been having a bad day, is not...
by DaveS
Thu Mar 14, 2013 12:36 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sallie Mae loan servicer / death of co-signer
Replies: 93
Views: 18682

Re: help with overall portfolio, 42yo

If I had your attitude about getting into a mature market, I would pay off the mortgage with that cash. Your allocation is quite normal and can stay that way. Dave PS World wide International stocks are not hitting new highs. You did not say what your US v. International/Emerging allocation is. If i...
by DaveS
Mon Mar 11, 2013 11:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: help with overall portfolio, 42yo
Replies: 3
Views: 354

Re: Bond funds? More risk vs stocks, given current Fed poli

...but know that historically, having a small bond component actually improves long term expected returns. Source? This is in the first two Swedroe books. Also look at Bernstein, Four Pillars of Investing. More accurately the statement should be that over long periods 90/10 to 80/20 does better tha...
by DaveS
Mon Mar 11, 2013 11:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond funds? More risk vs stocks, given current Fed policy?
Replies: 19
Views: 1963

Re: Would principal in bond funds be decimated at 1980s rate

If memory serves the rates on long term treasuries went from about 5 to 11%. over about a 3 year period. But that just my memory. So the rate increases were more than 1% during a couple of years of that period - This I definitely remember. If you had intermediate bonds you were looking at declines a...
by DaveS
Mon Mar 11, 2013 1:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Would principal in bond funds be decimated at 1980s rates
Replies: 6
Views: 1047

Re: Request help with portfolio overhaul.

Both you and yours have been violating an important rule - costs matter. The 1% in added costs over a 30 year period adds up to a lot of lost appreciation. If you go over to the Vanguard site and find their cost analyzer and run the expense ratios against your typical Vanguard with an average return...
by DaveS
Mon Mar 11, 2013 1:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Request help with portfolio overhaul.
Replies: 6
Views: 637

Re: 28, new to investing, what would you do with my 3k tax r

I cant tell if I agree with the prior post or not. I think one should maximize tax free compounding. That grows for 30 years without taxation. With any kind of IRA once the calender goes beyond April 15th contributing for that year is gone. So I would use the money in the Roth till you reach the con...
by DaveS
Mon Mar 11, 2013 12:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 28, new to investing, what would you do with my 3k tax retur
Replies: 12
Views: 1146

Re: Muni bond call date

My experience is that if the bonds coupon is higher that market rates the muni will always be refinanced i.e. called. I am so used to this I know the call dates of the bonds I have in a ladder, I can't remember the dates they mature. I would worry if a muni paying maybe 4.5% went past a call date. T...
by DaveS
Fri Mar 08, 2013 5:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Muni bond call date
Replies: 4
Views: 301

Re: Dow who? New record high for gold

I think we are getting trolled. Gold was at $1720 per ounce last October and is $1577 per today. Dave
by DaveS
Fri Mar 08, 2013 5:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow who? New record high for gold
Replies: 13
Views: 1566

Re: Dive into bonds?

I can give you a couple or rules of thumb. 1) I cant for the life of me figure out why you have 500 index, mid cap funds, and small cap funds in each account. My bet is you could get a total stock market fund in one account at least that would be better, and less expensive than holding the three fun...
by DaveS
Thu Mar 07, 2013 11:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dive into bonds?
Replies: 38
Views: 3486

Re: Which fund is best for a taxable account?

Morningstar does some calculation regarding tax efficiency. I never pay much attention to it. They peg the ETFs this way; VSS tax efficiency .64 - cap gains potential 6.45 VXUS tax efficiency .74 - cap gains potential 4.19 VWO .53, .49 cap gains potential 5.86. I suppose that makes VWO the most effi...
by DaveS
Thu Mar 07, 2013 1:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which fund is best for a taxable account?
Replies: 5
Views: 931
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