Search found 94 matches

by DR
Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: social security and WEP/GPO advice
Replies: 3
Views: 416

Re: social security and WEP/GPO advice

See for example: http://maximizemysocialsecurity.com

they handle WEP and GPO.
by DR
Tue Jul 14, 2015 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 29, relatively high income, seriously considering early retirement
Replies: 42
Views: 7376

Re: 29, relatively high income, seriously considering early retirement

After you retire then what? It's hard to travel the world with that budget. Some will tell you that you can start churning to get free vacations, but it's not so easy anymore. What do you mean "then what"? You could ask that of anyone retiring. I do find it interesting when people talk ab...
by DR
Mon Jul 13, 2015 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 29, relatively high income, seriously considering early retirement
Replies: 42
Views: 7376

Re: 29, relatively high income, seriously considering early retirement

Age No, you shouldn't. You're giving away money to the Federal Treasury by not maxing your 401(k). And, to be frank with you, it is ridiculous for a 29-year-old to be thinking about a precise retirement date. At 29, you have not even begun to experience what life will throw at you. If your goal is ...
by DR
Mon Jul 13, 2015 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 29, relatively high income, seriously considering early retirement
Replies: 42
Views: 7376

Re: 29, relatively high income, seriously considering early retirement

OK, I had to give it a run . . . I use ESPlanner, a lifetime planning calculator. I used your numbers as best I could but took an educated guess at the cost of homeowner's insurance and property taxes. I'm a fellow Michiganian, Grand Rapids. I assumed a $2,700 annual contribution to retirement with ...
by DR
Sat Jul 04, 2015 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 543
Views: 77838

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

I'm confused by this post. One can use XIRR to calculate a weighted return, YTD, on one's portfolio. One can certainly get an internal rate of return (XIRR) on a portfolio. I guess I'm just confused by the point you are making about comparing to the return on an index. I must be missing something. ...
by DR
Sat Jul 04, 2015 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: CapitalOne 360 Savings vs CD rates?
Replies: 1
Views: 625

Re: CapitalOne 360 Savings vs CD rates?

I don't believe you are missing anything. The online saving account at CapitalOne pays better interest than the one-year CD and not quite as good as the 2-year. However with the online saving you have full liquidity.
by DR
Sat Jul 04, 2015 12:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your retirement goals
Replies: 31
Views: 3685

Re: Your retirement goals

*****When do you plan on retiring (age)? Spouse too if applicable. *****What are your retirement income goals annually? *****What do you expect/plan for ss income and when do you plan on talking it(including spouses if applicable)? *****Will your home be paid off at time of retirement? As for me: 5...
by DR
Sat Jul 04, 2015 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 543
Views: 77838

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

XIRR calculates an internal rate of return . Other names for it are money-weighted return and investor return . This rate of return is not comparable to the return of an index.* * It usually doesn't make much sense to look at the internal rate of return during sub-periods (like YTD), as it is uncom...
by DR
Sat Jul 04, 2015 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 543
Views: 77838

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

My YTD is +1.79% 77% intermediate term bond 23% equity (includes about 3% international and a flyer on LLNW that has done well) Overall, I have a very low standard deviation. Too bad there's no easy way to measure SD in a YTD analysis, since a YTD number is sort of half the story. The other half of ...
by DR
Fri Jun 12, 2015 2:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security Calculators and WEP or GPO
Replies: 6
Views: 837

Re: Social Security Calculators and WEP or GPO

I do know that http://maximizemysocialsecurity.com accounts for WEP and GPO. $40.
by DR
Tue Jun 02, 2015 9:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security Strategies
Replies: 43
Views: 4388

Re: Social Security Strategies

Kotlikoff et. al. have a NY TIMES bestseller out called Get What's Yours all about SS strategies. Or just spend $40 at maximizemysocialsecurity.com and let the software figure out the best strategy for you.
by DR
Sat May 30, 2015 2:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can my husband retire yet?
Replies: 112
Views: 14505

Re: Can my husband retire yet?

Not sure which is more silly: the original question as put, or me actually running the numbers through my planning calculator. But in the spirit of this amusing thread, I'll play along: Assumed: 15 years left on a mortgage with 3K in prop tax, 1400 in insurance, and 1K monthly mortgage payment. // H...
by DR
Sat May 30, 2015 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 543
Views: 77838

Re: What are you up YTD?

My allocation is 77% bond, 23% stocks

YTD: 2.86% (7.13% annualized)
by DR
Tue May 05, 2015 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Source for return standard deviation as function of AA
Replies: 5
Views: 412

Re: Source for return standard deviation as function of AA

I use http://portfoliovisualizer.com and the "backtest" area there. Look closely and you'll see there is a page where you can enter tickers, not just asset classes.
by DR
Tue Apr 21, 2015 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I saving too much for retirement?
Replies: 27
Views: 4992

Re: Am I saving too much for retirement?

It seems like an impossible question for anyone to answer but you. I use a calculator (ESPlanner) that shows my highest, sustainable discretionary spending in today's dollars from my current age through 100 accounting for variations in taxes(going up and down), Medicare B (going up), housing (going ...
by DR
Thu Mar 19, 2015 7:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 244
Views: 29608

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

I'm always amazed at people that have no interest in planning or learning how simple, in this case, no-cost decisions, could change their living standard for many, many years. In this case, it's 43 years of an inflation-adjusted $13,171 of annual extra household discretionary spending just by rearr...
by DR
Wed Mar 18, 2015 6:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 244
Views: 29608

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

Of course you can still get Medicare at age 65 even if you postpone other benefits to age 70. I'm not familiar with Medicaid rules, but certainly someone at or near poverty level (what it takes to qualify for Medicaid) would not be delaying SS benefits anyway I suppose.
by DR
Tue Mar 17, 2015 10:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 244
Views: 29608

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

Aaaa, just kind of fun. Thanks for raising the topic.
by DR
Tue Mar 17, 2015 9:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 244
Views: 29608

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

For the sake of our discussion I reran my ESPlanner reports to compare my household SS at 62 instead of 70 (with file/suspend). There's a 5 year age difference between my wife and I. If we both take at age 62 I would have to pay a 15,045 earnings deduction my first year at age 62 (ouch!) and then fr...
by DR
Tue Mar 17, 2015 1:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 244
Views: 29608

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

The free version at basic.esplanner.com is not robust enough for serious planning. It will do a good job of illustrating the concept though. But it doesn't collect earnings history on SS so it's merely an estimate or best guess. Why bother. The $149 version at http://www.esplanner.com will take your...
by DR
Tue Mar 17, 2015 11:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 244
Views: 29608

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

Indeed you did! It may not pay to work in your case. Yes, that 85% is a hit.
by DR
Tue Mar 17, 2015 9:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 244
Views: 29608

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

Yes, now that I think about it, the people I know that have taken it early (I can't think of anyone I know that's waited til 70) did so not because they couldn't afford to wait, but because they didn't know how to draw down available assets to smooth them over--or such a thought never occurred to th...
by DR
Tue Mar 17, 2015 9:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 244
Views: 29608

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

Well, you are right. That's even more amazing. Oddly, or ironically, its the rhetoric of fear that is also behind this, not just the framing concept of "break even." I say ironically because Kotlikoff himself is one of the most vocal critics of SS, glibly saying "it's bankrupt" a...
by DR
Tue Mar 17, 2015 6:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 244
Views: 29608

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

I too find this framing analysis really interesting. Kotlikoff is framing things differently (and more sensibly) and this is helping people see a different dimension to things. In fact, that earlier poster who mentioned creating a financial plan that scheduled one to die at age 81 was also framing t...
by DR
Mon Mar 09, 2015 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to create a 3% return portfolio?
Replies: 52
Views: 6084

Re: How to create a 3% return portfolio?

I was back testing with those specific funds and couldn't get further back than 2002 in my citations above. But if I switch to the asset classes (instead of those two specific Vanguard funds) I can back test to 1972-2014. I used Large Cap Growth and Total Bond classes. There we see the compound annu...
by DR
Mon Mar 09, 2015 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to create a 3% return portfolio?
Replies: 52
Views: 6084

Re: How to create a 3% return portfolio?

Also, if you switch your allocation to 10/90 you'll see on that backtest that your standard deviation drops further to 3.39 and your compound annual growth rate to 4.78% and you would never have had a negative year in that time period from 2002-14. Your best year would have been 8.44% in 2009. Perha...
by DR
Mon Mar 09, 2015 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to create a 3% return portfolio?
Replies: 52
Views: 6084

Re: How to create a 3% return portfolio?

I think this is a great question and indeed a great way to think about things--if you trust your model for how much you need. Back testing this portfolio using portfolio visualizer shows promising results. It only tracks those two funds back to 2002 and this was a very good decade for bonds, but I h...
by DR
Wed Feb 18, 2015 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Social security strategy with wide age gap between spouses?
Replies: 18
Views: 1937

Re: Social security strategy with wide age gap between spous

Just spend the $40 at maximizemysocialsecurity.com and find out.
by DR
Thu Jan 01, 2015 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Annual POLL] What was your 2014 return?
Replies: 144
Views: 15577

Re: [Annual POLL] What was your 2014 return?

MY XIRR return was 6.65%

I had 77% bonds (intermediate term) and 23% stocks (S&P index).
by DR
Wed Dec 31, 2014 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 543
Views: 77838

Re: What are you up YTD?

I"m 22/78 (stock/bond) and my YTD is 6.49% Bonds were intermediate term, and stocks were a mix, but a lot of S&P though I had some small cap world, and other growth stocks.
by DR
Mon Dec 08, 2014 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio simulation tools
Replies: 12
Views: 2325

Re: Portfolio simulation tools

In the FAQ data sources, I can't figure out what is referencing intermediate term bonds (AGG) on the user input site. You have a tax exempt intermediate term bonds. But why no ordinary int. term bonds that track the AGG as your data source suggests?
by DR
Sun Dec 07, 2014 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Suddenly Retired, do I have enough?
Replies: 42
Views: 7288

Re: Suddenly Retired, do I have enough?

I'm a little late to the discussion here, but someone mentioned Firecalc, so I thought I'd mention ESPlanner. I am an expert using this dynamic planning calculator. There's really not enough information here to get a reliable report, but there is enough to get a sense of the cash flow issues I think...
by DR
Wed Nov 05, 2014 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to describe HSA tax advantage return
Replies: 2
Views: 476

Re: How to describe HSA tax advantage return

Right. Yes, it's just for me in my own mind.
by DR
Wed Nov 05, 2014 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Planning our retirement
Replies: 3
Views: 477

Re: Planning our retirement

You might be asking about asset allocation? For myself, I'm mostly concerned with lifetime discretionary spending. If I can enjoy a lifetime discretionary spending (i.e, available spending after any off the tops like mortgage, Medicare Part B, contributions to retirement) of (I'll guess at some numb...
by DR
Wed Nov 05, 2014 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to describe HSA tax advantage return
Replies: 2
Views: 476

How to describe HSA tax advantage return

Hi Folks, I recently did some analysis on using my HSA as a savings tool. The case looks like this: --28% tax bracket 4% state taxes --able to contribute the "catch-up" maximum of $7,550 per year for the next six years --assume 3% nominal return on the HSA and 3% on the taxable account (ac...
by DR
Sat Nov 01, 2014 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio simulation tools
Replies: 12
Views: 2325

Re: Portfolio simulation tools

http://portfoliovisualizer.com/

I think this one is pretty cool.
by DR
Sat Nov 01, 2014 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 543
Views: 77838

Re: What are you up YTD?

I'm up 5.73 (annualized) YTD

21% S&P index
79% intermediate bonds

Not much volatility for me this year.
by DR
Mon Sep 01, 2014 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: struggling to understand "bond crash"
Replies: 13
Views: 2287

Re: struggling to understand "bond crash"

Yes, there's a lot of that kind of talk out there. But in this talk it's often easy to miss distinctions that these writers do not point out (because it would lower the scare factor in the narrative). For example, the concern we should have is holding long term bonds (in most but not all situations)...
by DR
Mon Sep 01, 2014 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Resetting Equity Target -a.k.a Portfolio Allocation
Replies: 19
Views: 1417

Re: Resetting Equity Target -a.k.a Portfolio Allocation

It seems way too doctrinaire or absolutist to be saying what allocation he "should" have. For example, why say "25% stocks is way too low"? I don't see how anyone can make this evaluation for someone with such certainty or confidence. His software (ESPlanner) shows him his living...
by DR
Thu Jul 18, 2013 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which retirement plan is better?
Replies: 24
Views: 1879

Re: Which retirement plan is better?

Again, I think it's interesting (and encouraging I think) that a defined benefit plan (pension) is offered at a university--or anywhere these days I guess. Even though I like the guarantee that goes with the pension, I would probably choose the 403b and contribute--particularly here where my rough m...
by DR
Thu Jul 18, 2013 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which retirement plan is better?
Replies: 24
Views: 1879

Re: Which retirement plan is better?

My university in Michigan does a 12% match in the 403b. I'm surprised to learn there are universities that offer a DB plan.
by DR
Thu Jul 18, 2013 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which retirement plan is better?
Replies: 24
Views: 1879

Re: Which retirement plan is better?

I figured 30 years old and retiring at age 65. I assumed inflation at 3% and a salary that keeps pace with that but he'll do better than that since promotion to full means some boost to salary etc. But I double checked my numbers and I see now that I didn't look far enough down my table. I reran the...
by DR
Thu Jul 18, 2013 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which retirement plan is better?
Replies: 24
Views: 1879

Re: Which retirement plan is better?

My calculator (ESPlanner) shows it's pretty much a wash, with the Pension option doing a little better. But, there's so many, many assumptions that have to be made that it's hard to compare without a lot more information. Furthermore, it's not really apples to apples: for the defined benefit plan ma...
by DR
Tue Jan 01, 2013 6:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dinner Guest Issues
Replies: 149
Views: 12682

Re: Dinner Guest Issues

Do you live in Michigan? I'll come and not complain!
by DR
Tue Jan 01, 2013 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
Replies: 481
Views: 16512

Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

1611.06
by DR
Tue Jan 01, 2013 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was your 2012 return?
Replies: 275
Views: 20959

Re: What was your 2012 return?

Results for 2012: CAGR 10.68% AVG Monthly Return 0.85% SD Monthly Return 0.83% Sharpe 1.03 At the end of 2012, portfolio is about 30/70 stocks/bonds. At the end of 2011, portfolio was about 12/88 stocks/bonds, so I added stocks during the 2012. Basically I bought VEU and VGK every time they dipped....
by DR
Tue Jan 01, 2013 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to calculate return on a portfolio
Replies: 55
Views: 4329

Re: How to calculate return on a portfolio

Yes, that looks correct now! Excellent, thanks again for your help! I've always been curious how to properly calculate my return across both investment vehicles and now I know and have a working example for 2013 and beyond, very happy about that. Thanks! Yes, I really like the XIRR function. If you...
by DR
Tue Jan 01, 2013 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to calculate return on a portfolio
Replies: 55
Views: 4329

Re: How to calculate return on a portfolio

Yes, that looks correct now!

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