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Re: Delay Social Security to age 70 and Spend more money at

I have always said that if I could continue to delay past age 80, and grow my benefit by 8%, I would. Too bad it doesn't work that way. Actually, I don't think you would delay much longer. The current 8% increase is based on the PIA, not the prior year amount, so it doesn't compound. That increase ...
by Cut-Throat
Thu Jul 24, 2014 1:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Delay Social Security to age 70 and Spend more money at 62
Replies: 143
Views: 12942

Re: Delay Social Security to age 70 and Spend more money at

If I may veer off, ever so slightly, on a bit of a rabbit trail here... One of the big problems in retirement planning is the need to effectively fund one's self "forever". What if, thanks to science and good fortune, I live to be 110? If everyone died on their 90th birthday it would be a...
by Cut-Throat
Thu Jul 24, 2014 8:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Delay Social Security to age 70 and Spend more money at 62
Replies: 143
Views: 12942

Re: Delay Social Security to age 70 and Spend more money at

You can choose to frame the problem any way you like. I chose to lay out a simpler example.

I have seen other examples using annuities, but they are complex enough that a lot of people's eyes glaze over.

I attempted to describe a new simpler way to look at the problem.
by Cut-Throat
Tue Jul 22, 2014 3:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Delay Social Security to age 70 and Spend more money at 62
Replies: 143
Views: 12942

Re: Delay Social Security to age 70 and Spend more money at

gw wrote:Now you're doing it right. :happy


Well Now you understand it! --- It's what I said in the Original Post!
by Cut-Throat
Tue Jul 22, 2014 12:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Delay Social Security to age 70 and Spend more money at 62
Replies: 143
Views: 12942

Re: Delay Social Security to age 70 and Spend more money at

This thread doesn't make sense. As Ketawa mentioned, you can't compare Social Security, which is an annuity, to a 4% (or any X%) "SWR," which is something else. You'll just get silly results. Apples and oranges and all that. The issue is that 4% is too conservative unless you're worried a...
by Cut-Throat
Tue Jul 22, 2014 7:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Delay Social Security to age 70 and Spend more money at 62
Replies: 143
Views: 12942

Re: Delay Social Security to age 70 and Spend more money at

Back to the original post here: Cut Throat, you run a scenario that shows that monthly income is higher if you delay receiving SS benefits until age 70. I apologize in advance if this has already been addressed: wouldn't we predict the $1 Million portfolio would earn a higher rate of return if only...
by Cut-Throat
Mon Jul 21, 2014 9:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Delay Social Security to age 70 and Spend more money at 62
Replies: 143
Views: 12942

Re: Thoughts of a long-term investor

I saw nothing when I clinked on the link....Maybe this is Genius, there is nothing to see.
by Cut-Throat
Sat Jul 19, 2014 10:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts of a long-term investor
Replies: 7
Views: 981

Re: Social Security Taxes?

This is an interesting question because it alludes to the basic constitutional law question of the ability of the federal government to tax interest paid by the states. I seem to remember that there was a SCOTUS decision maybe 60 or 70 years ago that said that the Feds could not tax the interest th...
by Cut-Throat
Sat Jul 19, 2014 9:25 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security Taxes?
Replies: 26
Views: 2262

Re: Social Security Taxes?

Toons wrote:Hey the way I view it,I'm thankful I am earning the income that puts me in a position to have 85% of my Social Security earnings taxed. :sharebeer


+1
by Cut-Throat
Sat Jul 19, 2014 8:43 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security Taxes?
Replies: 26
Views: 2262

Re: Japan's Lost Decades in One Chart

I agree with that, but the issue then becomes why doesn't everyone just get a SPIA and call it quits? I am not in retirement so I don't understand that aspect. To me it seems folks are keeping one foot in and one foot out of the deep end (preservation and still trying to grow capital). So if folks ...
by Cut-Throat
Sat Jul 19, 2014 8:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan's Lost Decades in One Chart
Replies: 23
Views: 2853

Re: Japan's Lost Decades in One Chart

Maybe or maybe not. It took the fixed income investor LONGER to break even as the draughts were much longer then the stock investor. So if your in accumulation it likely made it worse. Don't want to steal the thread, but if someone has the link it would be great to re-analyze it and the meaning of ...
by Cut-Throat
Sat Jul 19, 2014 6:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan's Lost Decades in One Chart
Replies: 23
Views: 2853

Re: Favorite portfolio tracking software

All I have ever used is Quicken,since 1993 :happy Every financial transaction,banking ,investing(including reinvested dividends),credit,loans(when I had them) is entered.18 different accounts. The software has been and still is invaluable thanks to my record keeping involving some mutual funds owne...
by Cut-Throat
Sat Jul 19, 2014 5:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Favorite portfolio tracking software
Replies: 14
Views: 1755

Re: Japan's Lost Decades in One Chart

The learning point: When single country stocks it a LONG dry spell don't expect a bond or cash heavy investor to do any better. Yeah but the bond and cash heavy investor didn't lose as much in the crash as the stock investor did. The learning point : Having Bonds and Cash is not about making money,...
by Cut-Throat
Sat Jul 19, 2014 5:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan's Lost Decades in One Chart
Replies: 23
Views: 2853

Re: [Poll] % of 3 funds in your financial asset portfolio?

What would 100% in Vanguard Target Retirement Income Be? 69%--until the next time they decide to jigger it. https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0308&FundIntExt=INT#tab=2 √ 39% Total Bond, check √ 21% Total Stock, check x 17% Short-Term Inflation Protected x 14% Total Internat...
by Cut-Throat
Fri Jul 18, 2014 9:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] % of 3 funds in your financial asset portfolio?
Replies: 31
Views: 1657

Re: [Poll] % of 3 funds in your financial asset portfolio?

What would 100% in Vanguard Target Retirement Income Be?
by Cut-Throat
Fri Jul 18, 2014 5:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] % of 3 funds in your financial asset portfolio?
Replies: 31
Views: 1657

Re: Selling RV Abroad & Bringing Cash Home

I've been to Tierra Del Fuego fishing about 15 years ago. The adventure sounds fun. Legal and Currency issues aside, but banking on selling the RV in a short period of time is wishful thinking. They'd take a Bath. They might as well give it away. My advice is to drive round trip and then sell it whe...
by Cut-Throat
Fri Jul 18, 2014 4:08 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Selling RV Abroad & Bringing Cash Home
Replies: 23
Views: 2087

Re: Millennials (with jobs) are super-saving their retiremen

bucksfan2 wrote: Truthfully I think it is good advice to tell anyone my age or younger to plan as if SS won't be there.


If that's what your generation plans for, it will be a self fulfilling prophecy.
by Cut-Throat
Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Millennials (with jobs) are super-saving their retirement
Replies: 65
Views: 9122

Re: Withdrawal Rate and Net Worth

Do any of you use net worth when calculating your withdrawals. Eg, you are withdrawing 4% of your net worth rather than just your portfolio. After all, let's say your home equity is a big part of your net worth and you are willing/ready to downsize than why not include that total as your real asset...
by Cut-Throat
Thu Jul 17, 2014 8:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal Rate and Net Worth
Replies: 16
Views: 1790

Re: Millennials (with jobs) are super-saving their retiremen

That 2.7 trillion number is money 'owed' to the trust fund by other government agencies because they spent the surpluses in the past. The trust fund is one giant IOU. So we are assuming our government which hasn't had a surplus in even longer than SS has is going to start running surpluses so it ca...
by Cut-Throat
Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Millennials (with jobs) are super-saving their retirement
Replies: 65
Views: 9122

Re: Millennials (with jobs) are super-saving their retiremen

I'm not ok with the debt at all. Nothing I said implied I was OK with any of the debt. And you should check the numbers before you say SS will run surpluses for the next 20-30 years. SS is running deficits NOW, and has been since 2010... and is expected to continue to do so for the next 75 years. D...
by Cut-Throat
Wed Jul 16, 2014 10:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Millennials (with jobs) are super-saving their retirement
Replies: 65
Views: 9122

Re: Millennials (with jobs) are super-saving their retiremen

Very true. If you try to find an 'investment' vehicle with a similar structure to SS you won't find one, but look at a Ponzi scheme and you will find a lot of similarities. SS won't end, but I don't expect benefit levels to keep up with inflation over the next 40 years. The fact that millennials al...
by Cut-Throat
Wed Jul 16, 2014 8:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Millennials (with jobs) are super-saving their retirement
Replies: 65
Views: 9122

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Cut-Throat, do you mind sharing your withdrawal percentage on a 30/70 allocation? I'm at just the inverse of you, but I'm maybe 4-years from pulling the trigger. Thanks. For a 37 year plan with a 30% Stock/ 70% Bond allocation in VPW, the starting Withdrawal percentage is 4.3%, but of course this i...
by Cut-Throat
Tue Jul 15, 2014 6:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 454
Views: 48341

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Portfolio would continue to be 60% stock & 40% bond. Withdrawal variability backtesting with years like 1966 produce acceptable results for us (ie might take just one trip in bad years). I am in a similar position to yours, although I have implemented VPW this year. Can I ask why you would be s...
by Cut-Throat
Tue Jul 15, 2014 4:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 454
Views: 48341

Re: [Poll] How often do you re-balance?

Sheepdog wrote:I don't re-balance at all as I have balanced funds only. They do it.


Ditto!.... I am 100% in the Vanguard Target Retirement Income Fund.

The Vanguard Elves do it for me. :happy

So, I didn't answer the Poll.
by Cut-Throat
Mon Jul 14, 2014 4:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] How often do you re-balance?
Replies: 25
Views: 2192

Re: In a crash, will you re-balance to maintain your target

Since I am 100% in Target Retirement Income Fund, I never have to re-balance.

Vanguard Elves do it for me. :happy
by Cut-Throat
Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In a crash, will you re-balance to maintain your target AA?
Replies: 64
Views: 4120

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Strategies that withdraw x% of the portfolio in the first year and increase withdrawals by inflation in later years are commonly evaluated based on the fraction of time money runs out over the retirement time horizon, say 30 years. If you never withdraw more than a fraction of your portfolio, you c...
by Cut-Throat
Sun Jul 13, 2014 12:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 454
Views: 48341

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Sounds to me those should be fairly common goals. A sustainable portfolio and limited jitters is really the bottomline. Those could be viewed as two separate problems solved by their own separate devices, actually. Or maybe kill two birds with one stone. I'm all ears... What made VPW different from...
by Cut-Throat
Sun Jul 13, 2014 9:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 454
Views: 48341

Re: ACA Books?

Not sure if I'm in the right forum but has anyone aware of any newer books that offer financial strategies to make the most of the ACA act for self employed people? I think I have much of it down pat but would like to become a Boglehead in this area.. Thanks, very much Mike The ACA is so new that t...
by Cut-Throat
Sat Jul 12, 2014 9:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: ACA Books?
Replies: 2
Views: 696

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

And I know that a product satisfying only one customer or two ain't going to make it... If this is an implication that VPW would only satisfy 1 or 2 people, I completely disagree. There is nothing stopping you from coming up with your own tool, starting another thread and letting people download it...
by Cut-Throat
Fri Jul 11, 2014 5:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 454
Views: 48341

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

I've been swapping a few PMs with Longinvest, and he suggested to share a few highlights. First, I stumbled upon an old BH thread where the very exact same idea of using PMT down to depletion was discussed. This is an interesting read. http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=41514 Next, lik...
by Cut-Throat
Fri Jul 11, 2014 11:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 454
Views: 48341

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

I do think VPW makes sense. It has you withdrawing a percentage of assets each year, with the percentage depending on life expectancy. The commonly mentioned alternative of withdrawing a fixed inflation-adjusted dollar amount each year ignores how your portfolio has done and can cause you to run ou...
by Cut-Throat
Thu Jul 10, 2014 12:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 454
Views: 48341

Re: Retiring without any Direction

Or is there anyone out there who is simply enjoying existing without any external schedule other than here's what I want to do with this minute, hour or day of my life? In other words can one retire without any direction without any need to find one? I am retired and have many interests. Not having...
by Cut-Throat
Mon Jul 07, 2014 5:36 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retiring without any Direction
Replies: 26
Views: 2047

Re: 4% Withdrawals Through 2000 and 2008 Bear Markets

I posted a spreadsheet that models withdrawals, at http://www.drawscape.com/heavywhether/ . It is simple to modify and adapt to different preferences. It is discussed in http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=139874 . It got a few views, but as of writing this post, not a great de...
by Cut-Throat
Mon Jul 07, 2014 1:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% Withdrawals Through 2000 and 2008 Bear Markets
Replies: 26
Views: 3318

Re: Retiring without any Direction

Yes, you have to be responsible for your own entertainment when you retire.

Not a problem for me.
by Cut-Throat
Mon Jul 07, 2014 12:10 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retiring without any Direction
Replies: 26
Views: 2047

Re: Online will - is it worth the savings?

Do you have the "other" necessary documents, which are: Living will (advanced health care directive), medical power of attorney, durable power of attorney? If not, this is penny wise and pound foolish. There are many, many situation where something bad will happen in the gray area- you're...
by Cut-Throat
Sun Jul 06, 2014 7:17 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Online will - is it worth the savings?
Replies: 16
Views: 1521

Re: 4% Withdrawals Through 2000 and 2008 Bear Markets

Electron, I have taken out an average of 4.5% a year for over 15 years (not adjusted for inflation), based on the balance in my accounts the previous 12/31 and I have about 30% more than 1998 invested basically 100 minus my age in stocks which is less stock than in balanced index, but presently at ...
by Cut-Throat
Sun Jul 06, 2014 4:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% Withdrawals Through 2000 and 2008 Bear Markets
Replies: 26
Views: 3318

Re: Longevity Insurance now allowed in IRA/401k/etc.

I guess the point is that if uswd correctly this can be another planning tool for someone to look at. Not a free lunch but something that could save you money and help with longevity. if everybody knew exactly when they would die thenthse would or would not be no brainers-I dont want to know-makes ...
by Cut-Throat
Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:41 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Longevity Insurance now allowed in IRA/401k/etc.
Replies: 97
Views: 4763

Re: Longevity Insurance now allowed in IRA/401k/etc.

Allan wrote: I know the % you are required to withdraw increases as you age but the balance of your IRA decreases too.


Only if your Growth Percentage is less than your RMD Percentage. Which is an unknown.
by Cut-Throat
Fri Jul 04, 2014 9:40 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Longevity Insurance now allowed in IRA/401k/etc.
Replies: 97
Views: 4763

Re: In retirement you expect you standard of living to?

When Planning for retirement over the last 30 years, I always planned on spending two times my annual spending (which was not really that thrifty). Now that I am retired, I am doing just that. More time equals more time to travel and for other Hobbies. Don't underestimate this for retirement planning.
by Cut-Throat
Thu Jul 03, 2014 4:32 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: In retirement you expect your standard of living to?
Replies: 55
Views: 4512

Re: Retirement calculator?

I am 32. And have the following assets: Roth IRA: $160,000 Wife Roth IRA: $16,000 Roth 401(k): $45,000 401(k): $2,000 I want to live off dividend and interest income alone when I am retired. Plan to retire at 65. I want to find out how much money do I need to put aside to make this happen. I was on...
by Cut-Throat
Wed Jul 02, 2014 3:53 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement calculator?
Replies: 25
Views: 3878

Re: Payoff Car For Best Credit Score

Look guys, I get it that in theory it doesn't make sense to pay off a .9% loan. In reality, my kid, like me, doesn't like payments and the dollar amount here isn't the issue. And I get it that if you're Dave Ramsey, your credit score doesn't matter. But she's 24 and will buy lots of different insur...
by Cut-Throat
Wed Jul 02, 2014 3:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Payoff Car For Best Credit Score
Replies: 21
Views: 1432

Re: Payoff Car For Best Credit Score

Reducing the different types of credit on your report reduces your score, not increase it. Credit score is not an indicator of net worth, its an indicator of risk compared to regular management to meet the goals of the credit contract (minimum payment of CC, scheduled payment of loan/mortgages). Yu...
by Cut-Throat
Wed Jul 02, 2014 9:19 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Payoff Car For Best Credit Score
Replies: 21
Views: 1432

Re: Longevity Insurance now allowed in IRA/401k/etc.

Why bother waiting to 70? SS benefits are actuarially neutral. If you delay to 70 then you need to live to at least 82 to receive the same amount of benefits that you would have received if you began benefits at 62. Better to take SS benefits before 70 to conserve taxable assets and employee owned ...
by Cut-Throat
Tue Jul 01, 2014 10:28 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Longevity Insurance now allowed in IRA/401k/etc.
Replies: 97
Views: 4763

Re: Longevity Insurance now allowed in IRA/401k/etc.

Howe many 65 years olds live to 85? If it makes you feel good do it. But investors can do better if they invest the funds and bequeath them to a charity because they will not be paying a commission of up to 8%. I know I can do better. How many 65 year olds here plan to live past 85 in their financi...
by Cut-Throat
Tue Jul 01, 2014 4:33 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Longevity Insurance now allowed in IRA/401k/etc.
Replies: 97
Views: 4763

Re: Has anyone tried/used the Guyton/Klinger method for a VP

It's all lovely planning which takes into account little of the real life things; actual inflation, longevity, and the market. As I recall none of these can be planned for, only recovered from... except death. IMHO all of the SWR discussions, floor and ceiling discussions, etc., are seriously lacki...
by Cut-Throat
Tue Jul 01, 2014 2:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has anyone tried/used the Guyton/Klinger method for a VPW
Replies: 34
Views: 2858

Re: Has anyone tried/used the Guyton/Klinger method for a VP

My issue with the VPW method is that it responds too quickly. Good years shoot up, while bad years drop. The advantage of the Guyton approach is that things stay relatively steady year-to-year; only after a severe shock, or several years of good/bad returns do you experience a big change. (Of cours...
by Cut-Throat
Tue Jul 01, 2014 12:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has anyone tried/used the Guyton/Klinger method for a VPW
Replies: 34
Views: 2858

Re: What is simple enough to understand, and therefore inves

I invest in Vanguards Target Retirement Income Fund. Can't get much simpler than that! :happy Cut-throat: I have little doubt that you will outperform the vast majority of investors. Best wishes. Taylor The best thing this approach does for me, is to keep my hands off of it. The less 'switches and ...
by Cut-Throat
Mon Jun 30, 2014 7:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is simple enough to understand, and therefore invest in
Replies: 27
Views: 1892

Re: What is simple enough to understand, and therefore inves

I invest in Vanguards Target Retirement Income Fund.

Can't get much simpler than that! :happy
by Cut-Throat
Mon Jun 30, 2014 2:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is simple enough to understand, and therefore invest in
Replies: 27
Views: 1892

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Hi, Prof. Shiller has not yet updated http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/chapt26.xls for 2013 returns. This has lead me to question why I provide two distinct US data sets. Why not provide, instead, a single US data set composed of Prof. Shiller's data for the period 1871-1971, and Simba's data...
by Cut-Throat
Fri Jun 27, 2014 5:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 454
Views: 48341

Re: Retirement Goal Calculation

Quick question along the same thought as the OP... It seems the general wisdom is 25x-30x living expenses. What if you were to retire early -- say around 45? Does that change the calculation or guidance at all? Does anybody know of a good equation or data fit that plots years left to live vs #x ann...
by Cut-Throat
Fri Jun 27, 2014 7:56 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement Goal Calculation
Replies: 31
Views: 4111
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