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Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

I have a question about the 'Withdrawal Statistics for Every Start Year' graph that shows the inflation adjusted median and minimum withdrawal amounts. I assume the minumum withdrawal amount is the minimum withdrawal amount that occurred during the specified period beginning from the Start Year ind...
by Cut-Throat
Tue Sep 02, 2014 8:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 464
Views: 52104

Re: Long Layover in Miami - Recommendations

We'll have a long layover, about 9 hours, at Miami International, on our trip to Chile. I've looked online with nothing particularly jumping out as a must do, but thought I'd inquire of the BHs for recommendations to enjoy the stop rather than just endure it. FYI, 3 adults, and the layover is from ...
by Cut-Throat
Mon Sep 01, 2014 4:43 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Long Layover in Miami - Recommendations
Replies: 11
Views: 686

Re: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?

Sure you're not! :confused There is no perfect withdrawal system because we don't have complete information. Each system attempts to compensate for that lack but they all fail in different ways. Choosing an appropriate failure mode is actually important because there are different ways to compensat...
by Cut-Throat
Sat Aug 30, 2014 9:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?
Replies: 177
Views: 10315

Re: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?

Clearly_Irrational wrote:I'm not a critic, I'm just saying that it has drawbacks


Sure you're not! :confused

You know exactly what it does and doesn't do, but you've never run it and spent any time studying it.
by Cut-Throat
Sat Aug 30, 2014 9:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?
Replies: 177
Views: 10315

Re: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?

But, But, But..... The REAL BIGGIE is that while a fixed SWR leaves its money in the market to prepare for the Big Market Drop.....it actually works against you because the money you left in the market to save you, gets Hammered in the Big Downturn. You could have spent it and had a Good time! I'm ...
by Cut-Throat
Sat Aug 30, 2014 9:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?
Replies: 177
Views: 10315

Re: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?

Nope, you still don't get it. I see two possible advantages: 1) You're guaranteed to use up all of the money by the end of the duration, thus leaving no money unspent. In theory, if a retiree has no bequest motive he would want to run out of money exactly as he died. (assuming that intentionally go...
by Cut-Throat
Sat Aug 30, 2014 8:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?
Replies: 177
Views: 10315

Re: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?

Clearly_Irrational wrote:
Cut-Throat wrote:I agree; You don't see it.


The advantage is that you're guaranteed to use up all of the money, the only problem for me is that I don't see that as an advantage unless you pair it with an SPIA.


Nope, you still don't get it.
by Cut-Throat
Sat Aug 30, 2014 8:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?
Replies: 177
Views: 10315

Re: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?

This thread is rediculous. There is so much fear regarding the unknown that people are actually saving 50% in fear of some rediculous calamity. I would hope that no boglehead is saving to retire on the bare minimum. I hope the goal is to have some fun in retirent. Frequent vacations, eating healthy...
by Cut-Throat
Sat Aug 30, 2014 4:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?
Replies: 177
Views: 10315

Re: Safe floor and Safe Withdrawal Rate

I am retired now and starting to take money out of my IRA to live on. Have no pension. I am confused about having a "safe floor" of investment for the necessary things in retirement, and using the Safe Withdrawal Rate for money in retirement. What is a safe floor? Is it only made up of SP...
by Cut-Throat
Sat Aug 30, 2014 4:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe floor and Safe Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 19
Views: 1382

Re: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?

Clearly_Irrational wrote: I don't see it as an improvement over the SWR model, in fact it seems less workable.


I agree; You don't see it.
by Cut-Throat
Sat Aug 30, 2014 3:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?
Replies: 177
Views: 10315

Re: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?

Don't be ridiculous!...Just plug in age 105.....You aren't going to live that long. There's a very good chance to won't live to age 90. The duration you plug in has a very large effect on the withdrawal rate. Tell me something I don't know. Now if someone that was retired, actually used VPW for the...
by Cut-Throat
Sat Aug 30, 2014 2:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?
Replies: 177
Views: 10315

Re: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?

How is that being required to know the "'Exact Date of your death" ? :confused Because if you don't guess the duration correctly you'll be out of luck. SWR modeling gives you a chance of running out of money at the end of the period, the VPW guarantees it. With a lifespan of unknown durat...
by Cut-Throat
Sat Aug 30, 2014 7:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?
Replies: 177
Views: 10315

Re: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?

MossySF wrote:Seems like an easy answer to the topic question. To plan for a low-return future, spend less -- save more.


Maybe, but the Conservative ones here imply that you should keep working and never retire, because "You never know for sure".
by Cut-Throat
Fri Aug 29, 2014 9:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?
Replies: 177
Views: 10315

Re: My husband's " WILL", $ left for me to live on....

lululu wrote:People have responsibilities to both. Here we see little responsibility towards the current wife and their child.


As I had Listed!.....The question is of Priorities that are in the wrong order.
by Cut-Throat
Fri Aug 29, 2014 9:02 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My husband's " WILL", $ left for me to live on....
Replies: 258
Views: 16999

Re: Any Tips on wintering in the Bahamas ?

I think bonefish are catch&release rather than putting them on the grill with a tasty recipe. In any event, it's starting to appear the OP knows more about his question than the rest of us here do. Better to post the Q on a Bahamas forum, similar to http://www.bonairetalk.com for the island of ...
by Cut-Throat
Fri Aug 29, 2014 8:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any Tips on wintering in the Bahamas ?
Replies: 21
Views: 1836

Re: Any Tips on wintering in the Bahamas ?

What is bone fishing? Ted Williams was an avid and accomplished fisher. In his recent biography of Williams, Ben Bradlee Jr. writes that Williams particularly liked bone fishing, but Bradlee really does not describe just what is bone fishing. I did a Google search but could find nothing that really...
by Cut-Throat
Fri Aug 29, 2014 8:49 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any Tips on wintering in the Bahamas ?
Replies: 21
Views: 1836

Re: My husband's " WILL", $ left for me to live on....

Well perhaps your marriage isn't the second for both of you with offspring from the first go-round involved. It's entirely common for folks with offspring from previous marriages to have prenups to provide for them in the event that spouse dies first. I would do this if I ever remarried. But there ...
by Cut-Throat
Fri Aug 29, 2014 8:25 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My husband's " WILL", $ left for me to live on....
Replies: 258
Views: 16999

Re: Any Tips on wintering in the Bahamas ?

Good for you cut, enjoy each moment even if they are always spectacular. I'm retired and spending those 3 months on west coast of Florida playing, tennis, going to beach, sightseeing and plain old relaxing. We deserve it! The last 3 years I was also on the West Coast of Florida. Cape Coral and Napl...
by Cut-Throat
Fri Aug 29, 2014 8:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any Tips on wintering in the Bahamas ?
Replies: 21
Views: 1836

Re: Any Tips on wintering in the Bahamas ?

3 months? I'm jealous. me too I suggest you give me that vacation, and just stay home. Well, this is what us Bogelheads aspire to. I am in my 60s and retired and now have the assets and freedom to do this. So, this is what you're aspiring to with LBYM and Saving and Investing for 30 years! I did an...
by Cut-Throat
Fri Aug 29, 2014 6:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any Tips on wintering in the Bahamas ?
Replies: 21
Views: 1836

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal Spreadsheet vs Firecalc.c

I just tried the VPW Spreadsheet from this site and noticed it started off my withdrawals at 4.5% gradually increasing over time. Based on my entries it looks like it was enough to retire. Then I entered the same numbers into Firecalc and making any adjustments to their default settings to make the...
by Cut-Throat
Fri Aug 29, 2014 5:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal Spreadsheet vs Firecalc.com
Replies: 5
Views: 480

Re: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?

Looking at the description one of the requirements is to choose a duration and the plan guarantees you will spend all of your money by that date. How is that being required to know the "'Exact Date of your death" ? :confused Firecalc also asks for a plan duration, just use the number that...
by Cut-Throat
Fri Aug 29, 2014 5:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?
Replies: 177
Views: 10315

Re: Any Tips on wintering in the Bahamas ?

four7s wrote:As you make plans don't overlook the Florida Keys as an alternative.


I've been wintering in Florida the last 4 years. And I like the Keys.

Unfortunately Florida does not have Winter Bonefishing. The bonefish usually don't show up until the end of March.
by Cut-Throat
Fri Aug 29, 2014 3:07 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any Tips on wintering in the Bahamas ?
Replies: 21
Views: 1836

Re: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?

Unless you can pick the exact date of your death it's a bit problematic since it guarantees you'll run out of money. Then you don't understand VPW! .... Why would you think you have to predict the 'exact date of your death'? I use age 100... If I die at 87, VPW worked just fine and I was off by 13 ...
by Cut-Throat
Fri Aug 29, 2014 1:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?
Replies: 177
Views: 10315

Re: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?

(1) You might not even live the full 30 years. True, or you might live for 40 years. The chances are lower for that occurrence of course but it is possible. Any sensible plan should include that contingency. (2) You can adjust your spending downward if needed... Going from 3 vacations a year to 2 v...
by Cut-Throat
Fri Aug 29, 2014 12:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?
Replies: 177
Views: 10315

Re: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?

I admit to not hearing of Toynbee. Maybe it's because he's not relevant any more. I do remember Ravi Batra's predictions of a severe depression back in the 80s the likes of which the world had never seen. He was not just talking about a 'great Recession', but was predicting a complete failure of the...
by Cut-Throat
Fri Aug 29, 2014 9:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?
Replies: 177
Views: 10315

Re: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?

Clearly_Irrational wrote:
Simplegift wrote:A low-return future implies lowered expectations from those of the past, which were all based on past historical data!


Right, which would imply an even lower SWR, not a higher one.


No, it depends upon sequence of returns. Which is why you should use VPW and forget about SWR altogether.
by Cut-Throat
Thu Aug 28, 2014 7:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?
Replies: 177
Views: 10315

Re: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?

I blogged about this a year and a half ago. Then I enjoyed my 2013 returns of 19.7% and my YTD returns of 7.17%. Maybe those guys are right and just early. Maybe it's cool to be a pessimist. I don't know. But this much I do know, if I really thought I'd get 2% real out of my stocks, I'd sell them a...
by Cut-Throat
Thu Aug 28, 2014 7:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?
Replies: 177
Views: 10315

Re: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?

OK, 3.74% ...............Sheeesh !! ......Talk about nitpicking! If a 6.5% reduction in a spending power isn't relevant to you then please send me a check, I'd be happy to take 6.5% of whatever you're making. You were the only person that mentioned 30 years, maybe the OP meant 25! You infer too muc...
by Cut-Throat
Thu Aug 28, 2014 7:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?
Replies: 177
Views: 10315

Re: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?

Actually it's the 95% confidence level, that means with a 4% SWR you would have run out of money before the end of thirty years in 5% of the cases. I'd hardly call that a "Worst cast historical number", it's more like "You'll probably be fine, but if things really go sideways you're ...
by Cut-Throat
Thu Aug 28, 2014 7:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?
Replies: 177
Views: 10315

Re: My husband's " WILL", $ left for me to live on....

Divorce is not an option for me because beside this money matter, everything is just fine. But he is always has been very cautious with his money. As few people mentioned here, another option for me to go back to work and save. But there is a "but"....If I go back to work, he will expect ...
by Cut-Throat
Thu Aug 28, 2014 6:38 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My husband's " WILL", $ left for me to live on....
Replies: 258
Views: 16999

Re: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?

First you have to understand that 4% SWR is a 'Worst Case Historical Number'. So, to buy into the 2-3% SWR stuff, you are saying that we are headed for an investment future that is worse than we have ever seen historically over the last 100 years or so. I'm not that pessimistic, but I don' write and...
by Cut-Throat
Thu Aug 28, 2014 6:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?
Replies: 177
Views: 10315

Re: When can you afford a $200K depreciating asset?

This is a hypothetical question. Basically if you won the game, still enjoy working, is it okay to blow your money on luxury vacations or expensive cars? For example, hypothetically, lets say your family has a COL of $100K/year, and have saved up $3million, and you still wants to work. Is it okay t...
by Cut-Throat
Wed Aug 27, 2014 9:02 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When can you afford a $200K depreciating asset?
Replies: 11
Views: 1156

Re: 100% stock AA-> At what age to add bonds?

Leeraar wrote:The savings rate has everything to do with it, because you need some withdrawal amount, not a percentage.

I more think I need a sabbatical.

L.


Can you tell us what "some withdrawal amount" is ?
by Cut-Throat
Tue Aug 26, 2014 7:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% stock AA-> At what age to add bonds?
Replies: 58
Views: 3678

Re: 100% stock AA-> At what age to add bonds?

I agree that AA is a minor factor in whether people will have success in retirement - but it is not as much the savings rate, as it is the withdrawal rate, because even a $4 million dollar retirement fund can be drawn down to nothing with an unrealistic 6% withdrawal rate. :oops: fd That is exactly...
by Cut-Throat
Tue Aug 26, 2014 7:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% stock AA-> At what age to add bonds?
Replies: 58
Views: 3678

Re: Leaving Ameriprise

You need to ask yourself if you really want 'Friends' like this anyway. :?
by Cut-Throat
Tue Aug 26, 2014 5:53 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Leaving Ameriprise
Replies: 10
Views: 1088

Re: Interesting take on SS at 62 plus dividend income

This article makes some interesting points about taking SS at 62, combining it with dividend income, etc.. http://seekingalpha.com/article/2450855-why-i-will-start-social-security-at-age-62 Yes, and if you would go to the casino and play the roulette wheel and place it on Red, You might Double your...
by Cut-Throat
Tue Aug 26, 2014 5:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Interesting take on SS at 62 plus dividend income
Replies: 4
Views: 745

Re: European Wine Festivals?

No, but it sounds like Fun! :D
by Cut-Throat
Sun Aug 24, 2014 5:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: European Wine Festivals?
Replies: 2
Views: 324

Re: How to split vacation rental cost

ralph124cf wrote:I would take a third side of the argument and say to include the infant nights in the calculation.

Ralph


I would charge twice as much for the infant..... :D
by Cut-Throat
Sun Aug 24, 2014 5:40 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to split vacation rental cost
Replies: 13
Views: 1150

Re: 100% stock AA-> At what age to add bonds?

Bonds protect you from a down market. You're suppose to have Bonds if: -you're risk adversed or -are close to retirement because you might not have the time horizon to recover from a recession So a young person w/a strong stomach who graduated from college at age 22 can get by with: 80% Total Marke...
by Cut-Throat
Sun Aug 24, 2014 5:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% stock AA-> At what age to add bonds?
Replies: 58
Views: 3678

Re: Worst Start year For VPW method

[Thread merged into here, see below. --admin LadyGeek] I have been testing VPW calculator . I think it defaults to 1972 for the year to begin the simulation. For those of you who understand VPW well, can you tell me which year I should use if I want to forecast the worst 30 year period in history? ...
by Cut-Throat
Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 464
Views: 52104

Re: Rain Jacket Recommendations

As a Fly Fisherman I have spent many rainy days afield. Frogg Togg Products are Super and a Great Deal! http://www.froggtoggs.com/ And they are very light weight, which is great for back packing. They are not super durable, but easily fixed with some duct tape. They have many different grades of qu...
by Cut-Throat
Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:03 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Rain Jacket Recommendations
Replies: 29
Views: 1732

Re: Rain Jacket Recommendations

As a Fly Fisherman I have spent many rainy days afield.

Frogg Togg Products are Super and a Great Deal!

http://www.froggtoggs.com/
by Cut-Throat
Fri Aug 22, 2014 2:32 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Rain Jacket Recommendations
Replies: 29
Views: 1732

Re: Smooth perpetual withdrawal from risky assets [endowment

The money in your cash account should be counted as part of your asset allocation. Unspent withdrawals are, by definition, not withdrawals. They are just an alteration in your asset allocation, in this case a fairly arbitrary one based on your inability to find things you're willing to spend money ...
by Cut-Throat
Thu Aug 21, 2014 7:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Smooth perpetual withdrawal from risky assets [endowment fd]
Replies: 93
Views: 7235

Re: I failed SS login

I had a problem setting up also, but I think it was related to the phone #. We no longer have a land line. I never have created an account online, I just went to the local office. I should take care of the online sign up, but a 30 minute wait time on hold is excessive. You will have to wait the ful...
by Cut-Throat
Thu Aug 21, 2014 1:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I failed SS login
Replies: 18
Views: 1767

Re: Smooth perpetual withdrawal from risky assets [endowment

As you pointed out in another post, there are trade-offs, involving the varying utility of money. Even in a massive bubble, if you can't sensibly spend money straight away, and the bubble asset still has the highest yield, then it's best to leave money in that asset. (Though in 2000 bubble, SP500 w...
by Cut-Throat
Thu Aug 21, 2014 12:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Smooth perpetual withdrawal from risky assets [endowment fd]
Replies: 93
Views: 7235

Re: Why aren't annuities better than investment drawdowns?

I don't hold cash. Spending is funded month by month by selling something. I don't like the drag on returns from cash so I don't hold any other than about 1/2 month average to provide a little working capital plus a couple of twenties in my wallet.I don't use a mathematical method for withdrawal, I...
by Cut-Throat
Thu Aug 21, 2014 12:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why aren't annuities better than investment drawdowns?
Replies: 46
Views: 2909

Re: Why aren't annuities better than investment drawdowns?

Same here. In fact we increased our spend temporarily during the last downturn. Prices and availability for home improvement contractors was extremely attractive so we had some renovations done. Also, there were fantastic deals on travel. So we temporarily bumped up our spending in 2009. It is back...
by Cut-Throat
Thu Aug 21, 2014 9:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why aren't annuities better than investment drawdowns?
Replies: 46
Views: 2909

Re: Fostering Change in HOA

You aren't going to win at this one. Most people want cable TV (I don't). Right now you are helping them pay for their cable TV, and you are in the minority. Most of the other homeowners would have their bills increase to drop the Cable TV. This is an impossible sell for you. My advice is to forget ...
by Cut-Throat
Thu Aug 21, 2014 9:19 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Fostering Change in HOA
Replies: 40
Views: 2137

Re: Reducing time spent paying bills

I use online bill pay. You receive a bill electronically and a check is automatically generated on its due date. All I have to do is make sure my checking account has money in it. The best part is I don't have to pay for stamps. Did I forget to mention there is no cost for this service? It can't be...
by Cut-Throat
Wed Aug 20, 2014 8:40 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Reducing time spent paying bills
Replies: 25
Views: 1731
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