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Re: Any Monkey Can Beat the Market

Real monkeys behave differently from virtual monkeys: Monkey Theory Proven Wrong by Brian Bernbaum May 9, 2003 LONDON - Give an infinite number of monkeys an infinite number of typewriters, the theory goes, and they will eventually produce the works of Shakespeare. Researchers at Plymouth University...
by Cubsfan
Thu Dec 27, 2012 6:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any Monkey Can Beat the Market
Replies: 38
Views: 4824

Re: Ready, aim, ... FIRE! (The poll)

Is the market open on January 1?
by Cubsfan
Thu Dec 27, 2012 5:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ready, aim, [Poll on Jan. 1 tax advantaged contributions]
Replies: 50
Views: 3412

Re: IBD anyone ?

gkaplan wrote:Irritable Bowel Disease?


I've Been Duped?
by Cubsfan
Wed Nov 07, 2012 11:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IBD anyone ?
Replies: 13
Views: 1129

Re: What to do on a test drive?

If you ever rent cars, it's not a bad idea to rent a model that you're considering buying. A one week rental might tell you more about the car than a short test drive.
by Cubsfan
Mon Aug 13, 2012 4:08 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What to do on a test drive?
Replies: 27
Views: 3010

Re: You, Too, Can Predict Stock Market Returns

I predict that the Cubs will win the World Series this year. I can probably predict stock market returns with a similar degree of accuracy.
by Cubsfan
Fri Mar 30, 2012 3:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You, Too, Can Predict Stock Market Returns
Replies: 59
Views: 3765

Re: 2011 Returns Thread

7.4 %. I attribute my success to dumb luck. Heavy on TIPS, which helped a lot. Had a couple of accounts just stay in Wellesley or Wellington all year and they did well also. I got very nervous about the situation in Europe earlier in the year and reduced my allocation to international. The jury is s...
by Cubsfan
Sat Dec 31, 2011 9:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2011 Returns Thread
Replies: 137
Views: 10400

Re: ? on sotkc valuations in index funds

EmergDoc wrote:
You're not. It's a valid criticism of index investing. What do you plan to do about it? Every other method has its issues as well.


Value tilting is one way to deal with it.
by Cubsfan
Sat May 28, 2011 8:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ? on sotkc valuations in index funds
Replies: 12
Views: 747

Stop by a liquor store and get a quart of whiskey. Go to a bar and drink heavily, but when you run out of money go home and watch TV and drink the whiskey. Just before you get to the point that you can hardly talk, call old friends, the later at night the better. Wait. I changed my mind. Ignore tha...
by Cubsfan
Fri Dec 17, 2010 3:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How do you get over a bad work day?
Replies: 58
Views: 5565

Roof collapse

chaz wrote:Under 15 inches of snow, the Metrodome roof collapsed. A precursor of a bad winter.



It collapsed under the weight of Brett Favre's ego.
by Cubsfan
Wed Dec 15, 2010 10:55 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Weatherman predicts January will be coldest since 1740
Replies: 30
Views: 4491

minesweep wrote:Christmas Greetings to Phillies fans:

Merry Cliffmas!

Happy Hallidays!

Roy to the World!

Mike



They'll get Cole in their stockings.
by Cubsfan
Tue Dec 14, 2010 6:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cliff Lee to Philadelphia
Replies: 45
Views: 4232

Moderation

chaz wrote:
LikeYouImagine wrote:
chaz wrote:Alcohol is toxic to brain tissue and to liver tissue.


So is water at a high enough consumption rate. Moderation is key.


I agree that moderation is key.




A little moderation is OK if you don't overdo it.
by Cubsfan
Fri Dec 10, 2010 3:17 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: caffeine and alcohol intolerance as I get older
Replies: 49
Views: 5555

Ryno was a great player, but that doesn't necessarily mean that he'd be a great manager. As a Cubs fan, I'd rather think of Ryno as a great second baseman than as the manager of a mediocre team. I hate to see him leave the organization, but there are reasonable arguments on both sides. I just hope h...
by Cubsfan
Thu Nov 04, 2010 3:27 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ryne Sandberg leaves Cubs organization
Replies: 15
Views: 2072

Big Ten

This looks like the year Big Ten fans learn exactly how the tie-breaker system works in the conference. All I know is that it's complicated.
by Cubsfan
Sun Oct 31, 2010 8:45 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: BCS Picks
Replies: 836
Views: 89082

Renteria

I was living in Florida when Edgar Renteria was a young World Series hero for the Marlins. It was good to see him come up with some big hits in the World Series now - even if I am rooting for Texas. I also remember those Giants teams from the early 60's. I was a Milwaukee Braves fan and every time t...
by Cubsfan
Sat Oct 30, 2010 9:41 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How about those Giants?
Replies: 60
Views: 6116

Red Sox fan cheering for Texas

The Red Sox are normally my favorite AL team. Since I enjoyed watching Texas play the Yankees, I'm cheering for the Rangers now.
by Cubsfan
Tue Oct 26, 2010 4:32 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Baseball Fans (Rangers) the suffering is over
Replies: 31
Views: 2710

A little more hate for the Buckeyes

Is there anything I can say to make the hurt last a little longer for any Buckeye fans today? As a Wisconsin fan, I have to say that Iowa was a tougher opponent than Ohio State. The season isn't over, but Ohio State is looking like the fourth best team in the Big Ten. If Iowa ever gets their kickin...
by Cubsfan
Sun Oct 24, 2010 7:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: BCS Picks
Replies: 836
Views: 89082

When you say Wisconsin, you've said it all

MWCA wrote:Clean sweep Buckeyes!

:sharebeer



Bucky Badger has a strong opinion about that.
by Cubsfan
Sun Oct 17, 2010 9:03 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: BCS Picks
Replies: 836
Views: 89082

csoren wrote:Hmmm ... wasabi is better for tuna, I think. Salmon is a bit sweet already (at least the Norwegian farmed salmon that I can get here seems sweet.)

[/b]


A little dill and garlic mustard works well with salmon.
by Cubsfan
Mon Sep 27, 2010 5:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Culinary Food Biases
Replies: 59
Views: 4905

He didn't really say that

I still think we're twisting Larry's words. He's just recommending that we base our financial plans on realistic expectations. When valuations are already high, there's a good chance that future returns will come in a little lower. It's not a bad idea to plan accordingly. He's not telling us to do a...
by Cubsfan
Mon Aug 30, 2010 4:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Larry Swedroe's new book on the Right Financial Plan
Replies: 141
Views: 15169

Re: bob

I definitely agree that condition 1 always applies. However, I disagree with the suggestion that investors (who have high marginal utility of wealth, etc. etc.) raise equity allocation merely because valuations are temporarily high. I didn't take Larry's remarks to mean that at all. I interpreted i...
by Cubsfan
Mon Aug 30, 2010 3:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Larry Swedroe's new book on the Right Financial Plan
Replies: 141
Views: 15169

Octopi

kevintmckay wrote:Still hard for me to believe that pigs and octopi are smarter than all dog breads.


If octopus is a Greek word, then why does it have a Latin plural? Most dictionaries recognize either octopuses or octopi, but octopi just sounds wrong.
by Cubsfan
Mon Aug 16, 2010 10:23 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Smartest and Dumbest Dog Breeds
Replies: 47
Views: 8143

blakerj10 wrote:My in-laws have boxers. Man are they dumb.



The in-laws or the boxers?
by Cubsfan
Fri Aug 13, 2010 11:47 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Smartest and Dumbest Dog Breeds
Replies: 47
Views: 8143

ETFs don't kill investors. Investors kill investors. Sometimes the investor is his own worst enemy. ETFs provide the investor with a low cost way to build a diversified portfolio when they're used correctly. They can be dangerous when used incorrectly. Think of Rick's book on ETFs as investor safety...
by Cubsfan
Sat May 22, 2010 9:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "ETFs Are the New Derivatives"
Replies: 37
Views: 4120

Brazil to win

If nothing else, they're the most fun to watch.
by Cubsfan
Thu May 20, 2010 9:51 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who will win the World Cup?
Replies: 50
Views: 4370

Time travel simple 1): go to your nearest black hole. Hangout within a mile or two of the even horizon and when you get tired go home and you'll find many years have passed even though you haven't aged. Time Travel simple2): jump to 99% of the speed of light in your new Toyota. When you stop you'll...
by Cubsfan
Tue May 04, 2010 5:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Time Travel Is Possible, Says Stephen Hawking
Replies: 11
Views: 2005

Re: Dirty market timing! Anybody buying foreign developed no

I went from 20% of equities in foreign developed at the end of 2009 to about 35% now. As the crisis du jour unfolds, I'm prepared to let it grow to as much as 60% of my equities portfolio by selling US and buying foreign with each new relative low ("relative low" meaning foreign developed...
by Cubsfan
Tue May 04, 2010 10:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dirty market timing! Anybody buying foreign developed now?
Replies: 52
Views: 6145

Cardinals hall of fame

Baseball fans should also plan to spend some time visiting the Cardinals hall of fame.
by Cubsfan
Mon Apr 12, 2010 3:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Visiting Saint Louis
Replies: 42
Views: 6016

Speeding tickets

I'm going to buy a Toyota. If I get stopped for speeding, I'll blame the car. Personal responsibility is a relic of the past. :lol:
by Cubsfan
Thu Feb 04, 2010 10:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any vultures buying TM?
Replies: 21
Views: 3115

Packers fans were not surprised

Reminded me of some of the games Brett lost for the Packers. Now we'll see if he can make up his mind about retirement.

Interesting that he bailed out on the Jets, who proceeded to make the playoffs without him.
by Cubsfan
Mon Jan 25, 2010 11:19 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [poll] Super Bowl: colts or saints?
Replies: 86
Views: 11316

mephistophles wrote:The Social Security death index is free. Genealogists have been using it for years. Many States also have a state death index.



There is something very unsettling about a guy named mephistophles being so familiar with death indices.
by Cubsfan
Tue Dec 29, 2009 6:57 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Social Security Death Master File
Replies: 13
Views: 2337

No such thing as a risk free investment

Rick is absolutely correct to point out that TIPS are not risk free. It's important to know what the risks are and how they might affect your individual situation. In my case, I have half of my fixed in individual TIPS and the other half in ST Investment Grade (VFSUX). I am planning to hold those TI...
by Cubsfan
Sat Dec 05, 2009 11:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Dark Side of TIPS
Replies: 176
Views: 26441

I'm holding the TIPS I have

The bond portion of my portfolio is now about evenly split between individual TIPS and Short Term Investment Grade VFSUX. I'm planning to hold my existing TIPS to maturity, but not buy any more unless the yield improves. Yield isn't great on VFSUX right now, but I don't really have any better ideas ...
by Cubsfan
Wed Nov 18, 2009 5:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS question - Does Larry Swedroe really mean Zero?
Replies: 20
Views: 4486

My father was assigned to guard a liquor store in Corpus Christi the day Germany surrendered. He didn't win any awards for it, but rumor has it he wasn't a very good guard. It seems that some of the guys ignored the curfew, broke in, and had a few drinks to celebrate. That was less than a week befor...
by Cubsfan
Wed Nov 11, 2009 6:41 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Veterans Day
Replies: 10
Views: 1696

I'm going to write The Little Book of Little Books.

In it, I will explain why so few people recommended TIPS when the yields were high and so many are recommending them now that the real yields are lower.
by Cubsfan
Mon Nov 09, 2009 8:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jason Zweig has new "little book"
Replies: 19
Views: 4198

Second opinions

DW and I make it a point to get a second opinion when the vet proposes some time of expensive treatment. We had a Brittany with elevated liver enzymes but otherwise happy and healthy. The vet started a series of tests that stressed out the dog and made him miserable. We got a large bill, a diagnosis...
by Cubsfan
Sun Oct 25, 2009 8:34 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pets - how much would you spend at the end?
Replies: 95
Views: 11007

Re: Different hybrid technologies

We should keep in mind that Toyota hybrids and Honda hybrids use very different hybrid technology. In a Honda, the battery gets a lot of use in highway driving. In a Prius, not so much. Another thing to consider is that people who drive the most miles probably have the most incentive to go with a h...
by Cubsfan
Mon Sep 28, 2009 11:30 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Old Hybrid Cars
Replies: 26
Views: 2996

Different hybrid technologies

We should keep in mind that Toyota hybrids and Honda hybrids use very different hybrid technology. In a Honda, the battery gets a lot of use in highway driving. In a Prius, not so much. Another thing to consider is that people who drive the most miles probably have the most incentive to go with a hy...
by Cubsfan
Sun Sep 27, 2009 8:55 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Old Hybrid Cars
Replies: 26
Views: 2996

Re: Civic hybrid

I have a Civic hybrid with 165,000 miles on it and almost no unscheduled maintenance. Guys in the service department tell me that's pretty typical. Cubsfan, I curious how well the batteries held up, and when you had to replace them and the cost? Thanks, Wayne Haven't replaced the batteries yet. Sti...
by Cubsfan
Fri Sep 25, 2009 2:36 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Old Hybrid Cars
Replies: 26
Views: 2996

Civic hybrid

I have a Civic hybrid with 165,000 miles on it and almost no unscheduled maintenance. Guys in the service department tell me that's pretty typical.
by Cubsfan
Thu Sep 24, 2009 5:41 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Old Hybrid Cars
Replies: 26
Views: 2996

Bears

As an aside, I love the idea of beginning every post with "Brutal Fact:". It lends so much more gravity. Brutal Fact: Bears eat beets. Brutal Fact #1: Many Wisconsin residents go bear hunting and grill bear meat at their tailgates before the Packers - Bears games. Brutal Fact #2: Bear mea...
by Cubsfan
Fri Sep 04, 2009 10:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: History
Replies: 48
Views: 4003

Re: I would encourage you to buy a good spotting scope

Hi cubsfan, I think you have me popping for more than I intended here!! Scope, tripod and camera adapter. :D A few years ago I had a gift certificate of a few hundred dollars so used that to buy a Manfrotto tripod to go with my Bushnell scope(that probably cost less than the tripod). My thought was...
by Cubsfan
Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:58 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: That Extravagant Thing You Do
Replies: 196
Views: 34172

I would encourage you to buy a good spotting scope

Soon will splurge on a spotting scope. Not for hunting but for birding. It's such an extravagance that I've been hemming and hawing on it for years. But it's just about time. We splurged on high quality Leica binoculars for birding about 5 years ago and made up the price in enjoyment within a year ...
by Cubsfan
Wed Sep 02, 2009 5:47 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: That Extravagant Thing You Do
Replies: 196
Views: 34172

He could have had a lot more stolen bases

If you look at his SB numbers by year, you'll see that for the first 6 years of his career, he never reached 10 SB attempts in any single year. He only had one 30-30 year in his career. I was at County Stadium when Canseco reached 40-40 and that was a big deal to a lot of people. When I looked up th...
by Cubsfan
Sun Apr 12, 2009 10:51 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: It's Henry Aaron's day!
Replies: 19
Views: 2646

I watched Aaron early in his career

When people think of Hank Aaron, they normally think of the home runs. I watched him play for the Milwaukee Braves when I was a kid. A typical season would be about a .320 BA with 40HR and about 120 RBI. He also played great defense and ran the bases well. Didn't steal many bases because Eddie Mathe...
by Cubsfan
Fri Apr 10, 2009 8:56 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: It's Henry Aaron's day!
Replies: 19
Views: 2646

My Civic hybrid is 7 years old and has 152,000 miles on it. Maintenance costs have been very low so far and I'm averaging about 45 mpg. No problems with the main battery. A Honda salesman (not exactly an unbiased source) told me that the Civic hybrids are surviving for about 200,000 miles and seem t...
by Cubsfan
Sat Apr 04, 2009 10:56 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Will We See 20 Year Old Hybrid Cars?
Replies: 32
Views: 4421

I just prefer to shift allocations/maturities because that allows me to control risk more. Examples include a) there are often "sweet spots" on the curve that have yields that look like clear anomalies, or at least very good opportunities. We have seen this recently with the off the run T...
by Cubsfan
Sat Jan 10, 2009 1:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Larry, Loved your Bond Strategy Book, please help w/ Bond AA
Replies: 34
Views: 6461

You can sell as much or as little as you want

I went through this earlier this year. When I left the advisor, I took over management of the account at Schwab. I could sell as much or as little as I wanted of any DFA fund. I could reinvest dividends, but other than that, I couldn't initiate new purchases in the DFA funds.
by Cubsfan
Sun Dec 14, 2008 9:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: leaving DFA advisor
Replies: 28
Views: 4907

I finally listened

I am doing my best to get the word out about safe investing. But don't you find that most don't listen until after it is kind of too late...as in, they are 60-something and have lost 1/2 or more of their money? I'm 50-something and I only lost 20% of my retirement money before I listened. Fortunate...
by Cubsfan
Sat Dec 06, 2008 1:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Followup:Bodie Recommends TIPS to Lower Retirement Risk
Replies: 125
Views: 23632

My week

Monday: Bought a little TSM and EM at the close. Tuesday: Nothing Wednesday: Bought a little more TSM at the close (It wasn't quite time to rebalance, but I didn't exceed my target allocation for TSM or EM this week) Thursday: Nothing Friday: Bought some individual TIPS. (maturities are a ways out, ...
by Cubsfan
Sat Sep 20, 2008 8:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Real Boglehead Moment - What are you doing?
Replies: 113
Views: 19264

I started with an advisor

The truth is, I went with an advisor just to get access to DFA funds. I stayed the advisor for about two years and then took control of the account myself. At this point, I don't think that I'd go with an advisor just to get access to DFA funds. Rick has been telling us that for years, but in my cas...
by Cubsfan
Sun Jun 15, 2008 7:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Do you own any DFA funds?
Replies: 29
Views: 5513
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