Search found 956 matches

Return to advanced search

TrevH/JonoJono backtest spreadsheet under gNumeric

RE: TrevH/JonoJono backtest spreadsheet under gNumeric Windows stop support of XP as of today. XP still has a large user-base and for those, the following might be of use. There are many Linux variants, one of which can be downloaded from this link http://archive.org/download/Puppy_Linux_ThinSlacko...
by Clive
Tue Apr 08, 2014 7:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spreadsheet for backtesting (includes TrevH's data)
Replies: 587
Views: 351901

Re: Spreadsheet for backtesting (includes TrevH's data)

... I incorporated .... changes to work with LibreOffice Calc: Backtest-Portfolio-returns-rev13a3.xls . Looks like it might also work with gNumeric - providing you arrange the EPIC codes for each fund in sorted order on the Portfolio worksheet i.e. sort B3:C39 by column C ascending. AND set cells A...
by Clive
Sun Apr 06, 2014 2:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spreadsheet for backtesting (includes TrevH's data)
Replies: 587
Views: 351901

Re: Is there another Berkshire out there?

frugalhen wrote:Is there another Berkshire out there?

Quite a few hire berks :D
by Clive
Tue Mar 18, 2014 6:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there another Berkshire out there?
Replies: 20
Views: 1954

Re: Staying the Course has never been harder

To make matters worse, even after filling out Vanguard's questionnaire they are telling me to be 80/20. Is there a huge difference between 100% and 80/20 if the market tanks Keep in mind that Berkshire-Hathaway owns lots of bonds in its investment portfolios. This company enjoys the benefit of a wh...
by Clive
Sat Mar 08, 2014 12:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Staying the Course has never been harder
Replies: 45
Views: 4647

Re: Cash for Bear Market investing

This is what rebalancing is for. You'll find that most of us on this board have investment policy statements, and when equities drop and we fall out of our "rebalancing zones" we'll purchase more equities. Rebalancing as I understand from a Boglehead perspective is about risk management n...
by Clive
Fri Mar 07, 2014 8:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash for Bear Market investing
Replies: 63
Views: 2929

Re: Has anyone seen the Japanese Stock Market?

lazyday wrote:Look how horrible the 25 year return is! Imagine if you were withdrawing 4% a year as a retiree.

?? 50/50 stocks/bonds with stocks split 50/50 domestic/foreign (US TSM gains in Yen) appears to have had a relatively smooth growth progression since 1980 - around 4% real.
by Clive
Fri Feb 28, 2014 1:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has anyone seen the Japanese Stock Market?
Replies: 73
Views: 6269

Re: Some discussion from the UK

Don't ignore building society accounts to generate income even though these may be outside your ISA. The current yield on a five year UK gilt is 1.8%. The current yield on a 5 year building society account is 3.25% . After basic rate tax of 20% this is 2.6%. And if you're at 40% tax it's still bett...
by Clive
Thu Feb 27, 2014 5:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Some discussion from the UK
Replies: 50
Views: 2459

Re: Inflation question

I'd like to *bump* this thread because I think the last poster asked a good question [ "What can I do about it as an investor? How should I invest?" ] that I do not know the answer to. The other reason I'd like it answered is because I went on a tour of one of the gov't printing offices, ...
by Clive
Wed Feb 26, 2014 4:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation question
Replies: 30
Views: 2571

Re: Inflation question

I've read a number of articles on the impending inflation due to the government printing money A lot of the 'printed money' was used to buy Treasury Bonds. i.e. sell a newly created 20 year 3% Treasury bond and use the proceeds to buy back an existing 7 year 8% Treasury bond (made up values, but al...
by Clive
Wed Feb 26, 2014 3:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation question
Replies: 30
Views: 2571

Re: Cruel math

It must be easier to lose money than to make money investing. If you start with $100 and the market goes down 30 percent, you have $70. To get back to even, you don't have to make just 30 percent the next year, you have to make 43 percent Start with $100, 50/50 in stocks and bonds. Stock prices dec...
by Clive
Wed Feb 26, 2014 3:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cruel math [x% loss requires x+% gain to get even]
Replies: 35
Views: 2803

Re: Are There Rebalancing Bonuses?

Yes. Consider two assets, lets call them stocks and gold. Stock prices generally pace inflation over the longer term, as does gold, but both do so in a volatile interim manner. Stocks also additionally pays a 5% dividend relative to its year start value, whilst gold doesn't. Lets assume the volatili...
by Clive
Tue Feb 25, 2014 4:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are There Rebalancing Bonuses?
Replies: 7
Views: 714

Re: Has anyone seen the Japanese Stock Market?

The optimal investor has enough wealth to have it in low risk assets. US TIPS and other inflation linked bonds. Real estate in prime locations. Maybe some International Small Cap Value. I believe Larry Swedroe's Barbell portfolio (that he uses personally) is high grade US municipal bonds plus inter...
by Clive
Tue Feb 25, 2014 1:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has anyone seen the Japanese Stock Market?
Replies: 73
Views: 6269

Re: Life after Windows XP?

I've seen some Open Office files and they just don't look right to me. So much of my computer environment is based on Windows and MS Office that switching to a new system would take an excessive toll. It's not just learning a new OS or new applications but also spending a lot of time and energy try...
by Clive
Mon Feb 24, 2014 7:29 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Life after Windows XP?
Replies: 117
Views: 6068

Re: Back Up Computer Options

Linux Puppy Slacko 5.6 boot DVD. Boots a pristine (known safe) image (for online banking mode). For normal mode same DVD booted with the savefile active (encrypted single file on HD with all of the changes post original pristine image - for general browsing/mucking around). Periodic snapshots of the...
by Clive
Mon Feb 24, 2014 6:04 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Back Up Computer Options
Replies: 50
Views: 2158

Re: Some discussion from the UK

The point of holding gold is its negative correlation (sometimes) to stocks and possibly bonds How much more would you expect gilts to earn after costs, taxes and inflation compared to gold? With gilts inflation might be high, as might yields, as might taxation. 10% inflation, 14.3% gilt yield, 30%...
by Clive
Mon Feb 24, 2014 8:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Some discussion from the UK
Replies: 50
Views: 2459

Re: Bond Question for Dr. Bernstein

the market expects the 3-year yield in 2 years time will be higher If in two years time 3 year T yields are up to 0.963% (from current 0.71%), then its the same reward as a 2 year 2% CD. More (higher) and the CD wins, less and the Treasury bond wins. As Larry says, the best indicator of tomorrow's ...
by Clive
Mon Feb 24, 2014 8:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Question for Dr. Bernstein
Replies: 55
Views: 5155

Re: Bond Question for Dr. Bernstein

Currently both brokered and direct CDs offer higher yields (in the ballpark of 2%) than 5-year treasuries (1.56%) From http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield current 5 year T yields = 1.56% whilst 3 year T yields = 0.71%. If you curre...
by Clive
Mon Feb 24, 2014 3:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Question for Dr. Bernstein
Replies: 55
Views: 5155

Re: Bond Question for Dr. Bernstein

Between 1941 and 1981, the total return of the long T was -67%; UK bonds were even worse. If that's not a bloodbath, I don't know what is, particularly in something that's supposed to be a safe asset. Bill Don't buy long treasurys. But that doesn't mean you have to own short T's either. I think tho...
by Clive
Sun Feb 23, 2014 4:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Question for Dr. Bernstein
Replies: 55
Views: 5155

Re: Some discussion from the UK

nisiprius posted this Russian chart in another thread (http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=133531&p=1970755#p1969659) http://s2.postimg.org/z2k6s18mx/Russia.png Thought I'd copy that here just as an example of what can happen, albeit a rare/infrequent event. If (wild guess) ...
by Clive
Sun Feb 23, 2014 4:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Some discussion from the UK
Replies: 50
Views: 2459

Re: Has anyone seen the Japanese Stock Market?

Japan's N225 performed poorly post 1990, but other stocks have performed relatively well (go grab a copy of Kenneth French's data). We've seen somewhat similar effects in the UK since 2000, but not as extreme (at least not as yet). FT100 (largest 100 stocks) relatively flat, whilst the FT250 (next 2...
by Clive
Sun Feb 23, 2014 4:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has anyone seen the Japanese Stock Market?
Replies: 73
Views: 6269

Re: Some discussion from the UK

BRK has underperformed the S&P500 during the past 1, 3, 5, & 10 years (-11.81%, -3.39%, -4.38%, -0.88%). You have to go back 15 years to see out-performance (+1.31%). http://performance.morningstar.com/stock/performance-return.action?t=BRK.A&region=usa&culture=en-US&ownerCountry...
by Clive
Sun Feb 23, 2014 2:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Some discussion from the UK
Replies: 50
Views: 2459

Re: Some discussion from the UK

At the end of the day a asset allocation that you are comfortable with and that you will stick with through thick and thin can have significant bearing upon overall results. My understanding is that 'average' investors give up a large amount through emotional trading - dumping a asset allocation at ...
by Clive
Sat Feb 22, 2014 1:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Some discussion from the UK
Replies: 50
Views: 2459

Re: Some discussion from the UK

It really comes down to your feeling about gold. I think it's a trap and in the first 2 decades of my investing life (1980-2000) a pretty painful trap (losing something like -80% of its value post inflation). I accept there are other periods when it has been a good investment Indeed its cycles can ...
by Clive
Sat Feb 22, 2014 1:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Some discussion from the UK
Replies: 50
Views: 2459

Re: Some discussion from the UK

Home I think one has to leave out of it UNLESS one can see a clear way to trade down. You can't spend your home equity in any meaningful sense (most homeowners in the UK are not prepared to sell up and just rent and on past experience I would definitely not recommend that strategy in London). Agree...
by Clive
Sat Feb 22, 2014 12:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Some discussion from the UK
Replies: 50
Views: 2459

Re: Some discussion from the UK

Assume a investor has £2.66M wealth, of which £666K is in their home (25%). Squeezing £1M of gilts into a ISA is more of a task than is dropping £666K into gilts in a ISA. Outside of ISA gilts run with the tax risk. 10% inflation, gilts yielding 10% perhaps, but being taxed 33% maybe = -3.3% net rea...
by Clive
Sat Feb 22, 2014 12:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Some discussion from the UK
Replies: 50
Views: 2459

Re: Some discussion from the UK

BRK has underperformed As a UK investor any US dividends would be have 30% withheld (reduced to 15% if W8BEN'd). As a 'stock index' type holding BRK is reasonably diversified, low cost and tax efficient. Agree however that there is individual stock risk incorporated into that choice. If the share p...
by Clive
Sat Feb 22, 2014 12:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Some discussion from the UK
Replies: 50
Views: 2459

Re: Some discussion from the UK

Valuethinker - ok, so putting BRK aside, for someone with 25% of their total wealth in their home and you're suggesting 50/50 global stocks/gilts for the remainder whilst I've suggested 25% home, rest split three ways, stocks, gold and gilts. 25% home, 37.5% stocks, 37.5% gilts versus 25% home, 25% ...
by Clive
Sat Feb 22, 2014 12:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Some discussion from the UK
Replies: 50
Views: 2459

Re: Some discussion from the UK

Using the yearly data from that article/link I posted earlier http://news.fool.co.uk//news/investing/investing-strategy/2009/06/29/feeling-cautious-load-up-on-gold.aspx a trinity of shares, gold, cash, third each, would on average had the best performing asset gaining 30%, and the other two assets g...
by Clive
Sat Feb 22, 2014 10:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Some discussion from the UK
Replies: 50
Views: 2459

Re: Some discussion from the UK

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY CLASS'A'COM USD5 (NYSE:BRK.A) BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY CLASS'B'COM USD0.0033 (NYSE:BRK.B) Identical except you can't attend the annual meeting as a B series holder. A-series has never split so the share price is up at around $170K/share. B series was initially 1/30th and then split 50:...
by Clive
Fri Feb 21, 2014 5:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Some discussion from the UK
Replies: 50
Views: 2459

Re: Some discussion from the UK

As a UK investor, my favoured equity fund at the moment is the Vanguard European tracker ETF. It's more diversified than a UK tracker (contains two-thirds non-UK shares) but has similarly low charges, at 0.15%. Is not that 0.15% just the fund management charge levied against you and that's deducted...
by Clive
Fri Feb 21, 2014 8:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Some discussion from the UK
Replies: 50
Views: 2459

Re: Index fund with no Income Tax burden?

The timing issue is also relevant as the lump sum needs to be invested. Research suggests that investing immediately, rather than using pound cost averaging by buying every month is statistically better. Lump sum versus £CA/DCA is an ongoing debate with most favouring the lump sum (see also the wik...
by Clive
Fri Feb 21, 2014 5:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Some discussion from the UK
Replies: 50
Views: 2459

Re: Using Windows XP after 4/8 voids Vg's reimbursement pled

Using a bootable linux CD/DVD to access online banking/brokerage is a good choice IMO. But does need relatively frequent replacement (download/burn latest versions of linux/browser). If you reboot before visiting any important site like bank or broker, then it might not be important to keep the Liv...
by Clive
Thu Feb 20, 2014 5:05 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using Windows XP after 4/8 voids Vg's reimbursement pledge
Replies: 33
Views: 1699

Re: Using Windows XP after 4/8 voids Vg's reimbursement pled

Ice-9, I think LTS is more like 5 years. And also I think you can generally upgrade to the next LTS much easier than a Windows upgrade on same computer. Also I think there's alternatives (Debian?) where you can stay up to date without upgrading to new versions. If any of above is wrong, hopefully a...
by Clive
Thu Feb 20, 2014 4:29 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using Windows XP after 4/8 voids Vg's reimbursement pledge
Replies: 33
Views: 1699

Re: Some discussion from the UK

A few additional points worth noting : Whilst you might start with nice equal divisions, gilts in ISA, stocks outside ...etc. As you rebalance you'll end up with mixtures, perhaps having reduced gilts to buy more BRK. It's best NOT to hold any BRK inside ISA as you can't hold foreign currencies insi...
by Clive
Thu Feb 20, 2014 4:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Some discussion from the UK
Replies: 50
Views: 2459

Re: Some discussion from the UK

Hi kcfin Trinity - third each : 1) Low cost stock index tracker outside of ISA. BRK (Berkshire Hathaway) perhaps (pays no dividends so no withholding tax, holds a diverse range of other stocks (index fund like)). Use yearly CGT allowance to tax harvest. Provides a GB£ hedge. 2) Gold Soverign's - leg...
by Clive
Thu Feb 20, 2014 3:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Some discussion from the UK
Replies: 50
Views: 2459

Re: Leverage Your Way To A Richer Retirement

In a very broad sense I see 85% in TIPS, 15% in 3x stock as being little different to 15% 3x stock, 30% bonds - that combined replicates 45% stocks, together with the remainder 55% in TIPS i.e. close to a 50/50 stock/bond overall asset allocation (45/55). Mixed in with some asymmetric rebalancing - ...
by Clive
Fri Feb 14, 2014 12:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leverage Your Way To A Richer Retirement
Replies: 28
Views: 3707

Re: Riding the yield curve, in action

Yahoo finance data ^TNX (10 year Treasury Yield). Year end values filtered out. Assume a rolled 10 year ladder where each year the maturing bond (that had been held for 10 years) was rolled into another 10 year that had a coupon yield = 10 year market yield (i.e. bought at par value). For simplicity...
by Clive
Sun Feb 09, 2014 1:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Riding the yield curve, in action
Replies: 19
Views: 1599

Re: Riding the yield curve, in action

So in summary there are 3 ways to make money with bonds: 1) Interest payments 2) Capital gains from "riding the yield curve" when interest rates are stable 3) Capital gains from increased bond prices when interest rates are falling If folks are worried about losing money in bonds due to r...
by Clive
Sat Feb 08, 2014 11:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Riding the yield curve, in action
Replies: 19
Views: 1599

Re: Riding the yield curve, in action

Grabbing the Treasury yield curve values as of June 2013, plotting with X-axis time scaled indicates that the peak of the steepest part of the yield curve back then was around the 2019 period (casual glance by eye). Looking up the price for a 2019 Treasury bond back in June 2013 indicates the 1% 6/3...
by Clive
Sat Feb 08, 2014 10:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Riding the yield curve, in action
Replies: 19
Views: 1599

Re: Rebalancing Portfolio

Yearly, to rebalance back to your target weightings. Or bands - whenever the actuals have deviated by a sizeable amount away from your target weightings. Steering contributions to the relatively light can help, but you might also need to sell down the bigger to add to the laggard. Your target weight...
by Clive
Fri Feb 07, 2014 4:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing Portfolio
Replies: 2
Views: 222

Re: [POLL] Correlation between leverage and risk tolerance

I suppose the "clearly cheap" comment should only apply to the kinds of leverage that aren't balanced by other assets. Hadn't considered arbitrage when writing that Even arbitrage has its up's and down's. Typically a leveraged ETF might incur 3 month LIBOR+0.6% cost of carry. Compare that...
by Clive
Fri Feb 07, 2014 9:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [POLL] Correlation between leverage and risk tolerance
Replies: 11
Views: 671

Re: [POLL] Correlation between leverage and risk tolerance

There's a vast difference between using naked leverage and covered leverage. A bulk standard 50/50 yearly rebalanced might be enhanced by being more dynamic with those weightings (maybe Ben Graham's 25/75 to 75/25 min/max, broadly 50/50). Perhaps adjusted according to stock earnings yield compared t...
by Clive
Fri Feb 07, 2014 7:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [POLL] Correlation between leverage and risk tolerance
Replies: 11
Views: 671

Re: [POLL] Correlation between leverage and risk tolerance

"risk-averse. I use leverage freely" Instead of 50/50 and selling bonds to buy more stock after stocks had declined - potentially a bear trap, hold say $150K of stock exposure via $50K in 1x (non leveraged) stock ETF and $50K in 2x leveraged stock ETF's. If a rebalance suggests adding £20K...
by Clive
Fri Feb 07, 2014 6:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [POLL] Correlation between leverage and risk tolerance
Replies: 11
Views: 671

Re: Small/Mid Cap Exposure

One would expect, however, that small and mid-cap stocks, being more volatile and risky than large and mega-cap, would rationally be expected to have higher long term returns if one remains a patient long term investor through market declines A single stock might start as a small cap and progressiv...
by Clive
Sun Feb 02, 2014 1:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small/Mid Cap Exposure
Replies: 27
Views: 2797

Re: Articles talking about a 50/50 asset allocation

I like 50/50 as its generally equal amounts of both volatile and relatively stable - which works reasonably when periodically rebalanced back to target weightings (has a tendency to add-low/reduce-high, cost average). 50% bonds invested as a 5 year ladder has 10% maturing each year (cash in hand), w...
by Clive
Tue Jan 28, 2014 8:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Articles talking about a 50/50 asset allocation
Replies: 41
Views: 4613

Re: Articles talking about a 50/50 asset allocation

Stocks and bonds are walking on a beach. They leave two sets of footprints in the sand behind them. Looking back, the tracks represent various stages of their life. At some points the two trails dwindle to one, especially at the lowest and most hopeless moments of Stocks life. When Stocks questions ...
by Clive
Tue Jan 28, 2014 12:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Articles talking about a 50/50 asset allocation
Replies: 41
Views: 4613

Re: very long term perspective

Does anyone know how to bring up on the computer a very long term chart from 1926, to present <sarcasm> Ha! 1926 to present LONG TERM!! Check out this that shows interest rates since 3000BC, stocks from 1509, commodities from 1165 http://thetraderandhisshadow.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/long-term-c...
by Clive
Sun Jan 26, 2014 8:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: very long term perspective
Replies: 13
Views: 1195

Re: Rebalancing the same than timing the market ?

I think you'll like this one nisiprius given the charts/details/data analysis I've seen from you in the past. Assume stock price only values grow with inflation + GDP. Also assume dividend values generally keep track with stock prices. And that cash (short term bonds) also grow with inflation + GDP....
by Clive
Sun Jan 26, 2014 6:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing the same than timing the market ?
Replies: 24
Views: 1353

Re: Age in Bonds - Who Follows a Different Strategy?

You have a $20k base income from the pension, you need an extra $10k a year, a retiree at age 65 has a life expectancy of about 20 years, so (20 years) x ($10k) = $200k in safe fixed income investments/SPIA, and the rest you can be more aggressive with (if you have the willingness to do so). If the...
by Clive
Sun Jan 26, 2014 5:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Age in Bonds - Who Follows a Different Strategy?
Replies: 132
Views: 6603

Re: Age in Bonds - Who Follows a Different Strategy?

30k a year living expense in retirement is well below average if you live on the east or west coast. Average expenses for couple age 58 in 2011 was about 57k. A bad choice of example figures perhaps, scale them as you see fit. I live 3500 miles east of your east coast (London) - where a gallon of g...
by Clive
Sun Jan 26, 2014 4:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Age in Bonds - Who Follows a Different Strategy?
Replies: 132
Views: 6603
Next

Return to advanced search