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Re: WHY is retirement enjoyable / something to look forward

Bungo wrote:For me, it's simple. I want to spend my time doing what I want to do, instead of what someone else wants me to do.


This!
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Dec 17, 2014 5:55 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: WHY is retirement enjoyable / something to look forward to?
Replies: 145
Views: 8813

Re: WHY is retirement enjoyable / something to look forward

expat wrote:No one has to do a job they don't like.


Of course not, I'm free to starve or be homeless. Ah...smell that freedom.
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Dec 17, 2014 5:45 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: WHY is retirement enjoyable / something to look forward to?
Replies: 145
Views: 8813

Re: Why a Boglehead doesn't invest in individual companies?

Are index funds just easier? Yes. An individual investor could, with a lot of work, assemble a portfolio that is well diversified and gave approximately the same return as the market. That would probably consist of at least 50 stocks. When you think about the selection, monitoring and record keepin...
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Dec 17, 2014 3:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why a Boglehead doesn't invest in individual companies?
Replies: 57
Views: 5196

Re: What is your opinion about "tilting?"

I feel tilting is a hidden form of market timing. Only if you're changing your tilts in some dynamic way. You could possibly call it a form of stock picking, though I think that comparison is a bit weak. It's really just asset selection, something we already practice in choosing our stock/bond and ...
by Clearly_Irrational
Tue Dec 16, 2014 11:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your opinion about "tilting?"
Replies: 116
Views: 8762

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Why is it, that, on every forum, the longest running threads are always titled: Simple, for the vast majority of investors their true risk tolerance is lower than their need for risk. Personally I'd really prefer if the maximum downside on my portfolio was about 10%, but there is no way I'm going t...
by Clearly_Irrational
Tue Dec 16, 2014 11:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1064
Views: 189383

Re: in the past there was a period when active outperformed

I wonder if these extra returns have disappeared or diminished greatly due to it being easier to invest in these market factors. It makes me quite hesitant as to whether or not I should consider adding value stocks to my portfolio. There are four possibilities: 1) The factor represents underlying f...
by Clearly_Irrational
Mon Dec 15, 2014 5:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: in the past there was a period when active outperformed
Replies: 30
Views: 1580

Re: in the past there was a period when active outperformed

As Benjamin Graham observed--in 1976! In my experience Graham is a reliable source. Picking an exact date when passive became better than active in general would be difficult but I think sometime between 1936 and 1976 would be a safe bet. I'd argue it wasn't completely dead until much later, but th...
by Clearly_Irrational
Mon Dec 15, 2014 5:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: in the past there was a period when active outperformed
Replies: 30
Views: 1580

Re: What is your opinion about "tilting?"

I tilt. I think the evidence is good but not ironclad. Despite that I don't think it's for everyone.
by Clearly_Irrational
Mon Dec 15, 2014 4:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your opinion about "tilting?"
Replies: 116
Views: 8762

Re: in the past there was a period when active outperformed

Active investors outperform in inefficient markets or situations that involve information asymmetry. So yes, if you go back far enough active investing was better than passive. Nowadays things have gotten so efficient that even hedge funds are getting creamed.
by Clearly_Irrational
Mon Dec 15, 2014 3:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: in the past there was a period when active outperformed
Replies: 30
Views: 1580

Re: You folks think the big one is coming?

There will be another market crash, it's just a question of timing. NBER recession data suggests a 95% chance that it will happen prior to May 2017. (assuming a stable normal distribution which is a big assumption) Currently my composite crash indicator is only reading 14.29/100 (over 30 is usually ...
by Clearly_Irrational
Fri Dec 12, 2014 7:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You folks think [a market crash] is coming?
Replies: 64
Views: 5698

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Latest quote from the talking heads "This event is increasing dispersion in the market which will be a benefit to people because it's now a stock pickers market". :oops: Like talking heads or not, dispersion does indeed assist active investors. Of course the evidence suggests that active ...
by Clearly_Irrational
Fri Dec 12, 2014 5:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1064
Views: 189383

Re: Is the collapse of oil price a "black swan"?

Cheap dirty energy fuels more use, hastens the planet's death. That's not good for anyone of any species. In the long term I agree that using dirty energy is a problem but that doesn't refute my point that economically cheap energy = prosperity. We're veering into politics here but I'd argue that t...
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Dec 11, 2014 3:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the collapse of oil price a "black swan"?
Replies: 91
Views: 8190

Re: Is the collapse of oil price a "black swan"?

I would argue it is no one's long term interest to have too low oil prices. No nation that is. Oil, as they say, is geomilitarily 'the blood of victory'. I strongly disagree. Cheap energy fuels abundant prosperity. Of course it's not going to be good for single revenue oil exporters but that is a m...
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Dec 11, 2014 1:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the collapse of oil price a "black swan"?
Replies: 91
Views: 8190

Re: How long did your IT career last? At what age did it en

I am into erp support. In addition to IT stuff, am good in commucation (customer facing), project planning and strategic planning. I would like to work till 65 or so, in that case what career can I switch into (if switching)? I have a masters in EECS. I do like/ have some knowledge in the finance i...
by Clearly_Irrational
Mon Dec 08, 2014 5:39 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How long did your IT career last? At what age did it end?
Replies: 156
Views: 14657

Re: How long did your IT career last? At what age did it en

Sure but doesn't this demonstrate why companies don't want to hire old workers? I would think that is obvious. There is a measurable increase in cost but hard to quantify increase in capabilities. Engineers are traditionally very difficult for management to value properly since much of their work d...
by Clearly_Irrational
Sun Dec 07, 2014 9:10 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How long did your IT career last? At what age did it end?
Replies: 156
Views: 14657

Re: How long did your IT career last? At what age did it en

If you think agile is a joke, then you really made the right decision to retire. Water-fall never really worked. Frankly, neither of them really work it's just that they have different failure modes. Each project is more tolerant of one or the others shortcomings, picking the right methodology matt...
by Clearly_Irrational
Sun Dec 07, 2014 5:43 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How long did your IT career last? At what age did it end?
Replies: 156
Views: 14657

Re: Rental Real Estate vs. Stocks and Bonds

sgrabiner wrote:The $210 represents 10% for vacancy; 10% for management and 10% for repairs.


Ah ok, that's much more realistic.
by Clearly_Irrational
Sun Dec 07, 2014 1:13 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rental Real Estate vs. Stocks and Bonds
Replies: 71
Views: 7276

Re: Rental Real Estate vs. Stocks and Bonds

Setting aside 10% for repairs, vacancy and management is another $210. I don't have time at the moment to do a full analysis, but I can tell you that this item is too small. Vacancy should be probably 3%-8%, management 6%-10% and repairs somewhere between 5%-12% depending on the age of the building.
by Clearly_Irrational
Fri Dec 05, 2014 3:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rental Real Estate vs. Stocks and Bonds
Replies: 71
Views: 7276

Re: Affording a 1.3 million home?

so i am wondering and fearing that may be buying in a mini bubble. :| .. It sure looks like one to me: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-gTpSM4OhKpQ/VH-guCQczBI/AAAAAAAALKo/1BOaxNctKIc/s1600/us-median-new-home-prices-vs-median-household-income-1967-thru-2014-10.png http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-l7KPLVNv2FI/VH-...
by Clearly_Irrational
Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:55 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Affording a 1.3 million home?
Replies: 122
Views: 18888

Re: Rental Real Estate vs. Stocks and Bonds

wojo8625 wrote:Come on, you can do better than that

It is possible to invest conservatively and average around 4-5%...gotta diversify tho


Ah, so you admit there is a tradeoff between the return and the downsides of an investment. (risk, involvement, liquidity, etc.)
by Clearly_Irrational
Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:48 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rental Real Estate vs. Stocks and Bonds
Replies: 71
Views: 7276

Re: Rental Real Estate vs. Stocks and Bonds

tony5412 wrote:My first thought was that 5% is a bit low but then there is a security deposit that should help if they leave the place a mess.


The security deposit has nothing to do with vacancy rates. In most states you're not allowed to use it for anything except repairs.
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Dec 04, 2014 3:56 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rental Real Estate vs. Stocks and Bonds
Replies: 71
Views: 7276

Re: How long did your IT career last? At what age did it en

I saw the writing on the wall in my late 30s so I started going to night school, about another 2.5 years left to get my MBA. (had to go back and get a bachelor's first) Not having any trouble getting hired right now at 42 but I see a lot more grey in the IT Managers, Project Managers and other Busin...
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Dec 04, 2014 3:48 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How long did your IT career last? At what age did it end?
Replies: 156
Views: 14657

Re: Rental Real Estate vs. Stocks and Bonds

wojo8625 wrote:There are easier ways to make money.


Of course there are, I mean 5yr TIPS are paying 0.07% why bother with anything else?
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Dec 04, 2014 12:04 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rental Real Estate vs. Stocks and Bonds
Replies: 71
Views: 7276

Re: Rental Real Estate vs. Stocks and Bonds

tony5412 wrote:Sounds like a good deal although I heard that paying a property manager cuts into profits.


Yes, but if you're honest you need to build that cost in anyways even if you're going to do it yourself. After all, you don't work for free do you?
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Dec 04, 2014 12:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rental Real Estate vs. Stocks and Bonds
Replies: 71
Views: 7276

Re: Rental Real Estate vs. Stocks and Bonds

I read somewhere that a landlord can expect to have one month of no-rent per year on average (let's say someone rents it for a few years then it takes 2-3 months to get everything fixed up and another renter in there. Generally when you buy a property you figure in the historical vacancy rate for t...
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Dec 04, 2014 12:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rental Real Estate vs. Stocks and Bonds
Replies: 71
Views: 7276

Re: Rental Real Estate vs. Stocks and Bonds

aprilcpa wrote:Two words for people wanting to own rental property - "Property Manager"


I agree, it makes a huge difference in the involvement level. Choose carefully though, I had a bad property manager and that cost me a bit before I fired them and hired the people I have now.
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Dec 03, 2014 4:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rental Real Estate vs. Stocks and Bonds
Replies: 71
Views: 7276

Re: Rental Property Questions (landlords and property manage

3. Is there a good "minimum" cash flow for the property? (i.e., Is it worth the investment at ANY positive cash flow or is there a minimum percentage that should be attained to be a good investment?) I refuse to use negative gearing, if a property doesn't at least break even including all...
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Dec 03, 2014 1:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rental Property Questions (landlords and property managers)
Replies: 8
Views: 643

Re: GMAT prep

I used Manhattan GMAT. Excellent material if you're doing self study. The one thing I have to add is that you really need to leave quite a bit of time to study. I gave myself five weeks and while that certainly helped, a longer period of time would have given much better results.
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Dec 03, 2014 12:55 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: GMAT prep
Replies: 23
Views: 1564

Re: Why is Dave Ramsey wrong?

I think psychology is the reason he advocates paying the small debts off first. In addition I think there is a very positive bonus to optimizing free cash flow for a person in that situation. Paying off the smaller debts increases the size of your safety buffer in a way that paying down larger debt...
by Clearly_Irrational
Tue Dec 02, 2014 6:19 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why is Dave Ramsey wrong?
Replies: 73
Views: 9990

Re: Rental Real Estate vs. Stocks and Bonds

Do you take out mortgages or pay cash for your rentals? Do you pay them off ASAP or work toward monthly cash flow? Dave Ramsey doesn't recommend investing in real estate until the primary residence is paid off...and then he recommends only buying if one has enough cash to pay in full. Robert Kiyosa...
by Clearly_Irrational
Tue Dec 02, 2014 12:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rental Real Estate vs. Stocks and Bonds
Replies: 71
Views: 7276

Re: Rental Real Estate vs. Stocks and Bonds

Not too many people who have purchased rentals in the last 10 years are recommending getting into it. I've purchased within the last ten years and I still recommend it. It has it's downsides to be sure, but overall the returns seem worth the effort to me. The main problem is that you're asking abou...
by Clearly_Irrational
Tue Dec 02, 2014 12:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rental Real Estate vs. Stocks and Bonds
Replies: 71
Views: 7276

Re: Stay-the-course

In my opinion, "buy and hold" is always the best strategy. Based on my reading the fact that the market is not normally distributed and that there are behavioral errors by the participants suggests that is only mostly true rather than all true There are possibly some exceptions that occur...
by Clearly_Irrational
Tue Dec 02, 2014 12:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1064
Views: 189383

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

At the moment everything looks copacetic to me: S&P 500 Price to Dividend ratio is still acting rationally Leading indicator swirlogram suggests we're in slowdown rather than contraction We're still within the one sigma range for NBER expansions Latest composite crash indicator is 14.29/100 (rea...
by Clearly_Irrational
Tue Dec 02, 2014 11:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1064
Views: 189383

Re: Why is Dave Ramsey wrong?

camptalcott wrote:I still can't figure out the 12% return number he advocates.


Nominal average return of the stock market 1972-2013 is 12.12%. That's incredibly misleading, but it is true.
by Clearly_Irrational
Mon Dec 01, 2014 2:03 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why is Dave Ramsey wrong?
Replies: 73
Views: 9990

Re: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?

CI, we are done with November in the markets, how is that crystal ball looking? With the Bollinger bands contracting now my Oct 27 forecast appears to be holding but as I mentioned Nov 3rd the magnitude is larger than expected and combined with a large bullish P&F target the accuracy is lower t...
by Clearly_Irrational
Fri Nov 28, 2014 4:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 464
Views: 36409

Re: Shiller CAPE 10 — Why So High These Days?

It is not difficult at all. Crimean war, terrorism, ebola, domestic financial wealth imbalance, India/Pakistan nuclear war, global climate change, oil price spikes, oil price plummets, hackers controlling a fleet of self-driving cars, the Cubs constructing a juggernaut, etc. Hard to believe I'm say...
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Nov 26, 2014 4:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller CAPE 10 — Why So High These Days?
Replies: 38
Views: 2955

Re: Shiller CAPE 10 — Why So High These Days?

Simplegift wrote:In short, the historical average CAPE value of 16 is not a constant of nature, but rather an artifact of history that includes two world wars, a global depression and a decade of high, uncontrolled inflation.


So you're forecasting 50 years of peace, prosperity and brotherly love then?
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Nov 26, 2014 3:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller CAPE 10 — Why So High These Days?
Replies: 38
Views: 2955

Re: Rental Real Estate vs. Stocks and Bonds

Lower middle class I know the people that used to own it. They bought it 30 years ago (not sure for how much) and sold it 10 years ago for 48. The person that bought it made some improvements (remodeled kitchen, redid floors, etc), and with that taken into consideration, it didn't appreciate much. ...
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Nov 26, 2014 1:07 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rental Real Estate vs. Stocks and Bonds
Replies: 71
Views: 7276

Turkeys predict crashes

A good piece that demonstrates how correlation is not necessarily causation even when the relationship looks very solid:

http://www.politicalcalculations.blogsp ... arket.html
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Nov 26, 2014 12:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Turkeys predict crashes
Replies: 1
Views: 429

Re: Dog food - how cheap is too cheap?

Epsilon Delta wrote:* for example tuna in cat food, tuna may or may not be good for cats, but it is not a natural part of their diet.


Fair enough, though I doubt wheat middlings were either.
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Nov 26, 2014 12:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dog food - how cheap is too cheap?
Replies: 64
Views: 5895

Re: Shiller CAPE 10 — Why So High These Days?

However, it has to be asked, "What evidence is there today that PE10 is destined to revert toward its long-term average?" Are we expecting a world war? Is high inflation a concern? Are there stresses or imbalances in the global financial system that might precipitate another deep recessio...
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Nov 26, 2014 11:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller CAPE 10 — Why So High These Days?
Replies: 38
Views: 2955

Re: Shiller CAPE 10 — Why So High These Days?

We've already been at above average PE/10 levels since 1991. Either we've entered a new regime or there is one he** of a regression to the mean coming up one day. In my opinion it's mostly strongly correlated with the change in Fed policy that occurred when Alan Greenspan took over the Fed from Pau...
by Clearly_Irrational
Tue Nov 25, 2014 4:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller CAPE 10 — Why So High These Days?
Replies: 38
Views: 2955

Re: What would be the investing strategy for a coming crash?

tadamsmar wrote:How is it that market timing would not be prediction? Without a prediction, what would be the point in acting to change your AA?


That would depend on whether you believe in reversion to the mean or not I suppose.
by Clearly_Irrational
Tue Nov 25, 2014 12:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would be the investing strategy for a coming crash?
Replies: 82
Views: 9328

Re: Dog food - how cheap is too cheap?

After looking at reviews and checking prices I just ordered a bag of Diamond Naturals from Amazon. It's rated 4 stars and only $0.97 a lb which is basically a free quality upgrade compared to the stuff I've been buying. (It's more expensive than Atta Boy! or Pedigree but less than Purina or Beneful ...
by Clearly_Irrational
Mon Nov 24, 2014 5:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dog food - how cheap is too cheap?
Replies: 64
Views: 5895

Re: Dog food - how cheap is too cheap?

texasdiver wrote:Your go-to source for all dog food information is

http://www.dogfoodadvisor.com


Hey that's awesome thanks! I just found something I didn't even know I was looking for.
by Clearly_Irrational
Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dog food - how cheap is too cheap?
Replies: 64
Views: 5895

Re: Dog food - how cheap is too cheap?

We bought a brand called "Mountain Chunks", the dogs ate it, but gave us a look like "seriously, this is the best you could do?". I advise staying away from dog foods that are excessively cheap. Atta Boy! seems fine though recently we've upgraded to Beneful. Of course, if you hav...
by Clearly_Irrational
Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:53 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dog food - how cheap is too cheap?
Replies: 64
Views: 5895

Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

I agree with most of the main philosophical points but I don't get religious about it. Skeptical analysis lead me here in the first place and I'll stay until it starts telling me to do something different. Given that I use a different asset allocation than many (Tilted, Large EM Holding, Gold, Long ...
by Clearly_Irrational
Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percent "Boglehead" are you?
Replies: 120
Views: 7875

Re: What would be the investing strategy for a coming crash?

Supposing that an investor did believe a major crash was coming within the next 2 years My IPS requires me to keep an eye on these sorts of things though I'm mostly not allowed to act on that information. NBER recession data suggests that the current expansion has a 95% chance of of ending prior to...
by Clearly_Irrational
Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would be the investing strategy for a coming crash?
Replies: 82
Views: 9328

Re: What would be the investing strategy for a coming crash?

greg24 wrote:Employ a huge amount of leverage and short everything.


Well if you're willing to take on that sort of risk you really need to look into using options instead.
by Clearly_Irrational
Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would be the investing strategy for a coming crash?
Replies: 82
Views: 9328

Re: What would be the investing strategy for a coming crash?

It's a good idea to ALWAYS have an Asset Allocation that you could live with if a 50% crash happens tomorrow. This is the assumption I use as well. If I wake up tomorrow and the stock market is down 50%, I'm not going to be happy but as long as my portfolio is safe enough that I won't sell in a pan...
by Clearly_Irrational
Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would be the investing strategy for a coming crash?
Replies: 82
Views: 9328
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