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Re: Wise move to move some $ to cash before bear market?

2. Possibly moving to a 65/35 AA for my peace and less anxiety That seems wise. If you're stressed now you're going to totally freak when things really start happening. Personally I'd say even 65/35 might be too aggressive for you but that's just off the cuff, you'll need to do some more soul searc...
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Mar 26, 2015 2:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wise move to move some $ to cash before bear market?
Replies: 64
Views: 4980

Re: Wise move to move some $ to cash before bear market?

Because that would be blatant Market Timing , not more reasoned Tactical Asset Allocation... If we're talking moving to cash I think I'd call that market timing even at 30%. If he's talking about just being nervous with his current risk level and changing his stock/bond ratio to something more comf...
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Mar 26, 2015 12:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wise move to move some $ to cash before bear market?
Replies: 64
Views: 4980

Re: Wise move to move some $ to cash before bear market?

I just read an article that described how to prepare for a bear market and listed the history of the previous bear markets over time. Since we are at an all time high , a bear market is coming , nobody knows when. The author suggested taking 20%- 30 % and putting it in cash to hold and buy in the b...
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Mar 26, 2015 12:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wise move to move some $ to cash before bear market?
Replies: 64
Views: 4980

Re: Excess Cash - Play Monopoly or Repay Debt?

malabargold wrote:All that debt and you only have $500-1000 per month in extra cash?
This is scary.


That's after their investing and $5k worth of fun money so not quite as strapped as it sounds.
by Clearly_Irrational
Tue Mar 24, 2015 6:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Excess Cash - Play Monopoly or Repay Debt?
Replies: 66
Views: 4835

Re: Excess Cash - Play Monopoly or Repay Debt?

To me, having a 2% loan is better than a 5% loan....I mean even paying down the personal residence loan would be better than the negligible amount of the auto loans - it's not as if there is a cash flow issue here. The student loan may make the most sense just because it's a variable rate - but it'...
by Clearly_Irrational
Tue Mar 24, 2015 10:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Excess Cash - Play Monopoly or Repay Debt?
Replies: 66
Views: 4835

Re: Excess Cash - Play Monopoly or Repay Debt?

Not understadning the posts recommending paying off Auto & Student loan debt. Some of the mortgages have rates twice as high. I guess it depends on your tax bracket. Unless you are driving beaters (which I doubt), I don't see any reason to pay off those auto's ahead of schedule when you have 5%...
by Clearly_Irrational
Mon Mar 23, 2015 10:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Excess Cash - Play Monopoly or Repay Debt?
Replies: 66
Views: 4835

Re: Excess Cash - Play Monopoly or Repay Debt?

I like rentals so you won't get any guff from me about that. That said I think a bit of de-levering might be in order before buying more properties, more from a safety than returns perspective. I'd recommend the following: 1) Pay off the car loans for sure, you've got $37k in cash coming and only ow...
by Clearly_Irrational
Mon Mar 23, 2015 4:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Excess Cash - Play Monopoly or Repay Debt?
Replies: 66
Views: 4835

Re: Buy a rental property in this market ?

denovo wrote:A tenet of Bogleheadism is that speculation of the stock market is a waste of time. It's the same for any other financial market including real estate.


I would agree but argue that speculation in the real estate market means flipping properties rather than buying rentals.
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Mar 19, 2015 1:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy a rental property in this market ?
Replies: 42
Views: 2832

Re: Buy a rental property in this market ?

I suggest you go physically look at 100 properties. Analyze the numbers. PITI, taxes, cash flow, depreciation, etc. You've got to analyze 100, not 10 or 20. This is a good suggestion, I looked at a huge number of properties each time before I bought the ones I have now. It gives you a good feel for...
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Mar 19, 2015 11:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy a rental property in this market ?
Replies: 42
Views: 2832

Re: Buy a rental property in this market ?

this is not the time i'd recommend non-professional RE investors dipping their toes into market rate SFR rentals. Personally I like Duplexes better anyways. Since you're not competing with people buying their "dream home" prices tend to be more rational based on the expected rents. Additi...
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Mar 19, 2015 11:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy a rental property in this market ?
Replies: 42
Views: 2832

Re: Rental property vs. REIT

That's only true in the very short term, Vanguard and others have published research that find in the longer term REITS behave significantly more like the physical real estate they own than equities. That sounds unlikely, REITs have a pretty high correlation to stocks (0.59) (Simba data 1972-2014)....
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Mar 19, 2015 11:01 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rental property vs. REIT
Replies: 38
Views: 3111

Re: Rental property vs. REIT

One is a job. One is not. I own rentals, I also have a full time job, they're nothing like each other. Yes, if you do your own property management it's the equivalent of having a part time job and the hours scale with the number of units. (though it's still not too terrible) I recommend that a new ...
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Mar 19, 2015 10:52 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rental property vs. REIT
Replies: 38
Views: 3111

Re: Buy a rental property in this market ?

fishingmn wrote:I do agree that you don't want to concentrate all of your wealth in rentals - mine are less than 1/2 my net worth.


I agree with this as well. I consider owning rentals a form of meta-diversification that improves my overall returns when combined with stocks & bonds.
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Mar 18, 2015 12:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy a rental property in this market ?
Replies: 42
Views: 2832

Re: Buy a rental property in this market ?

2. Most people vastly underestimate expenses involved in rental real estate. If you're just beginning to look into this, I guarantee that maintenance, vacancies, management, insurance and taxes will cost you more than you think. 3. I'd highly recommend that you manage your first property yourself. ...
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Mar 18, 2015 12:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy a rental property in this market ?
Replies: 42
Views: 2832

Re: Buy a rental property in this market ?

Zoom, there went your profits. Management companies typically charge 1 month rent a year (~8%). That's a ridiculous rate on a per hour basis. Unless you work for free doing it yourself isn't necessarily cheaper though it may seem that way on a cash accounting basis. If you're going to take on a par...
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Mar 18, 2015 12:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy a rental property in this market ?
Replies: 42
Views: 2832

Re: Buy a rental property in this market ?

I have several friends/colleagues telling me that buying investment property to rent out is practically a no brainer in today's market I don't think it's ever a "no brainer" you always need to do your due diligence to make sure it's an appropriate investment given what you know and expect...
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Mar 18, 2015 12:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy a rental property in this market ?
Replies: 42
Views: 2832

Re: Rental property vs. REIT

G12 wrote:
Clearly_Irrational wrote:Totally agree, one of advantage of real estate leverage though is that there are no margin calls.


Yet the REITs in the index/fund/ETF will have loans with covenants and may be callable by the lender, or nonrenewed.


I agree but I meant direct ownership.
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Mar 18, 2015 11:55 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rental property vs. REIT
Replies: 38
Views: 3111

Re: Tesla Motors Stock

Epsilon Delta wrote:Which is why uranium is the preferred power source for cars.


Well, if expense and safety are no object then I'd prefer anti-matter, it has a higher power density than uranium.
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Mar 18, 2015 11:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tesla Motors Stock
Replies: 253
Views: 23139

Re: Rental property vs. REIT

We know that almost every company in the S&P 500 has debt on its balance sheet, but most people who buy shares in an S&P 500 index fund do not think of themselves as using leverage. Well, it's subject to interpretation of course, but I would say they are. It's just that the companies are th...
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Mar 18, 2015 11:50 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rental property vs. REIT
Replies: 38
Views: 3111

Re: Rental property vs. REIT

This statement raises interesting questions. If we own an individual REIT, does this then imply that we (the investor) are (however indirectly) using leverage? I have to come down on the side of saying that an investor is not using leverage unless he buys the stock with borrowed money. Well, you're...
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Mar 18, 2015 11:35 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rental property vs. REIT
Replies: 38
Views: 3111

Re: Rental property vs. REIT

abuss368 wrote:Leverage can be great in good times and just crush you in bad times.


Totally agree, one of advantage of real estate leverage though is that there are no margin calls.
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Mar 18, 2015 10:32 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rental property vs. REIT
Replies: 38
Views: 3111

Re: Definition of financial independence?

Your income exceeds your expenditures without the necessity of labor.
by Clearly_Irrational
Tue Mar 17, 2015 6:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Definition of financial independence?
Replies: 52
Views: 4781

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

Because the only bonds in a ladder that will have a current yield equal to the 10 year yield of 0.43% will only be that portion of the ladder (or the fund) that you just purchased. But there will be an equal amount of bonds with 9 years, 8 years...2 years, and 1 year to maturity. Right, I see that....
by Clearly_Irrational
Tue Mar 17, 2015 1:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22837

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

swaption wrote:You don't get to use the 10 year yield for a rolling ladder


I admit I don't use rolling ladders, I use funds so perhaps I'm in error there. Care to explain why not?
by Clearly_Irrational
Tue Mar 17, 2015 12:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22837

Re: Shiller - How Scary Is the Bond Market?

livesoft wrote:Monetary policy will not be tightened very sharply, so there is nothing to worry about or to be scared of.


*shrug* Generally the Fed tends to lag, so if they stay true to form they'll keep things low too long, increase rates too slowly then panic towards the end and jack them up in a hurry.
by Clearly_Irrational
Tue Mar 17, 2015 12:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller - How Scary Is the Bond Market?
Replies: 29
Views: 4378

Re: Rental property vs. REIT

Real estate gives you diversification of risk that REITs do not. If the stock market crashes, your real estate still has a tenant. Of course, there are other risks with real estate (which is why it diversifies that risk). Local property values, bad tenants, and repair/maintenance costs are the obvi...
by Clearly_Irrational
Tue Mar 17, 2015 12:17 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rental property vs. REIT
Replies: 38
Views: 3111

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

I mean, with real bond yields pretty much at 0 right now Average duration on Bogleheads seems to be around five years or so. Even a rolling ladder of 10yr TIPS is yielding more than zero, sure it's not huge but it's 0.43%. For a rolling ladder the duration would be around five years so the 5yr TIPS...
by Clearly_Irrational
Tue Mar 17, 2015 10:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22837

Re: The Permanent Portfolio as an accumulation portfolio

All back-tested models are period dependent. Permanent Portfolio looks good only when gold does well versus the stock market. The enthusiasm for it vanishes abruptly on years like 2014. That's because minus the gold it's actually not that unusual a portfolio. The cash and long term bonds combined e...
by Clearly_Irrational
Mon Mar 16, 2015 5:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Permanent Portfolio as an accumulation portfolio
Replies: 16
Views: 2036

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

I'd like to ask C_I a question. If you're averaging a consistent annual return of greater than 15%/yr. in the past and going forward, why bother wasting time with the Bogleheads Forum? I don't think any of us expect 15%+ annualized returns from the stock market in the future. Garland Whizzer Those ...
by Clearly_Irrational
Sun Mar 15, 2015 7:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22837

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

That 0% real should be a reference to the value of the real estate itself with maintenance growing at approximately 0% real over the long run averaged over locations. That would only be true for locations with no population growth. That does not refer to the returns of real estate investment, which...
by Clearly_Irrational
Sat Mar 14, 2015 8:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22837

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

That's a bit problematic at best since Berstein points out that the returns on real estate have historically been very close to 0% real -- and that is by the way what I have determined myself - just in different terms (3-4% nominal.) That makes little sense, real estate definitely returns more than...
by Clearly_Irrational
Sat Mar 14, 2015 6:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22837

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

Dimson, Marsh, and Staunton found that worldwide, stocks returned about 3% more than twenty year government bonds since 1900. Twenty year TIPs are now at .5%. That means 3.5% real for stocks would be completely unremarkable. It would mean that stocks beat bonds by the historic average. No more, no ...
by Clearly_Irrational
Sat Mar 14, 2015 6:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22837

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

Expected returns as computed by the good doctor assume a return to the mean (in terms of valuations) over the coming decade or two. There is no assumption about crash or no crash in such approach. Now given current valuations, this pretty much implies a crash of sorts... Which would be hardly surpr...
by Clearly_Irrational
Fri Mar 13, 2015 5:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22837

Re: Stock Market going south what's next?

The market is still above the 200 day simple moving average, this isn't even a big move yet, quit worrying or you'll get an ulcer. My composite crash indicator is still under 30 so I'm still bound by the no active trading rule. What does your IPS say, you do have one right? Predicting the market is ...
by Clearly_Irrational
Fri Mar 13, 2015 4:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Stock Market going south what's next?
Replies: 31
Views: 4002

Re: Corporate America: Procedure/Process to get Fired

If it's a layoff due to poor company performance, it can be instantaneous. I was laid off 3 years ago after getting a great review just a few months prior. The reason I was let go is because I was the most junior person in the department on second shift. I didn't see it coming due to the above aver...
by Clearly_Irrational
Fri Mar 13, 2015 3:27 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Corporate America: Procedure/Process to get Fired
Replies: 9
Views: 944

Re: The Permanent Portfolio as an accumulation portfolio

I agree there is some weakness with the analysis starting in 1972, though any start year will be somewhat arbitrary. I like the concept behind the PP (economic diversification) but here are some of my complaints with it: 1) The expected return is too low 2) Holding gold during economic booms is real...
by Clearly_Irrational
Fri Mar 13, 2015 2:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Permanent Portfolio as an accumulation portfolio
Replies: 16
Views: 2036

Re: At what point is it too much house? How much do we need

It really depends on how well the design of the house meets your actual needs. Things like floor plan and storage areas can make a huge difference in livability. Generally I'd start off with a list of rooms I want and roughly how big I'd like them then add it all together to figure out the size of t...
by Clearly_Irrational
Fri Mar 13, 2015 2:20 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: At what point is it too much house? How much do we need?
Replies: 52
Views: 4635

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

A quick clarification: Bernstein's expected returns are not based on the assumption that the market will crash, but on the assumption that it won't crash. Which is a pretty bad assumption. Currently the boom part of the cycle is within the normal range and will continue to be until May 2017 or so, ...
by Clearly_Irrational
Fri Mar 13, 2015 10:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22837

Re: What internet speed is fast enough?

Anything over 300 Baud is just wasteful luxury.
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Mar 12, 2015 5:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What internet speed is fast enough?
Replies: 51
Views: 4396

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

If your choices are between a) Bonds returning 0% b) Cash returning -2% c) stocks returning -5% for the next 10 years where do you put your money? There is a reason why people buy those negative yield European and Japanese bonds. The people buying them think they are the best alternative for their ...
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Mar 12, 2015 4:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22837

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

I thought maybe one last attempt. Perhaps worst case there might be others following along that might learn something. It's been a long discussion, the fact that there even was one surprised me. *shrug* It's possible I'm being an idiot, I'll go off and do some more reading. Who knows, it wouldn't b...
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Mar 12, 2015 12:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22837

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

We are not merely talking about present value calculations here. The market is not necessarily guessing about the future, Yes it is. it has priced in expectations about the future, and all of that information is contained in the yields at various maturities. Which is just a longer way of saying tod...
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Mar 12, 2015 11:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22837

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

I’m getting the sense there is something very fundamental about fixed income that you are not seeing, so perhaps this is a bit of a tutorial. I understand what you're saying, I actually have quite a bit of familiarity with present value calculations and figuring the current value of individual bond...
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Mar 12, 2015 10:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22837

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

And now that makes for a historically very small equity risk premium. Any way you run the numbers, something looks off. :) For real return starting at a high valuation I think it's a reasonable estimate for the next 10yrs but I suspect the next 20yrs will be closer to 5%. 1871-2014 the real return ...
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Mar 12, 2015 10:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22837

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

Sometimes you have to go with what makes functional, economic sense over the best fitting regression. So far I still feel that the best model for the future of bond returns is still the past, though I agree that 1972-2014 data set has a positive bias. Bond fund returns look like they have a similar...
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Mar 11, 2015 5:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22837

Re: When does market timing make sense?

For normal markets and normal contributions it doesn't. All the evidence we have suggests that it doesn't work consistently over the long term. If you are doing some sort of huge one time investment, then maybe it might be worth a little effort to pick the right day even though your chances of doing...
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Mar 11, 2015 12:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When does market timing make sense?
Replies: 34
Views: 1429

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

swaption wrote: We are discussing expectations, and expectations by no means imply any sort of precision.


Fair enough. Expected returns have a specific statistical meaning and that's not what we're talking about here. How exactly are we defining 'expectations' and what does it mean in terms of the math?
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Mar 11, 2015 11:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22837

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

It is beyond "not bad", it is obvious. So, in essence you're saying that unlike the stock market we can predict ahead of time what our returns will be with a high level of success? That seems unlikely or the standard modality for bonds would be market timing rather than buy and hold. Pred...
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Mar 11, 2015 11:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22837

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

siamond wrote:Huh? Did you really mean to write '20 year real return' instead of nominal? This doesn't seem quite right.

And then I don't understand your jump to a linear regression line of reasoning.


I did mean that yeah, here take a look:

Image
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Mar 11, 2015 11:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22837

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

If you move down the quality scale to get spread, you're constructing a riskier '60/40' portfolio than a straight stock/govt bond one, so of course you get more return *for more risk* I don't agree the standard assumption is government bond quality and it does make a fair bit of difference when pro...
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Mar 11, 2015 11:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22837
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