Search found 3013 matches

by Clearly_Irrational
Tue Aug 25, 2015 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warning Signs [Economic health indicators]
Replies: 262
Views: 34361

Re: Warning Signs [Economic health indicators]

The cumulative AD line and the Dow transports have been headed down for months. OP does not use these indicators, but others do. I paid more attention to them when I was actively trading. I do still look at the Baltic dry index and rail traffic now and then but more as a confirmation type of thing ...
by Clearly_Irrational
Mon Aug 24, 2015 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "There’s No Need to Fear Stock Market Corrections"
Replies: 15
Views: 2596

Re: "There’s No Need to Fear Stock Market Corrections"

Thanks Taylor. Now that I'm within a decade of retiring, I consider the last few trading days (and in particular this morning) a good opportunity to gauge my *actual* risk tolerance. My only reaction was to check for opportunities to tax-loss harvest this morning, but considered no other action. So...
by Clearly_Irrational
Mon Aug 24, 2015 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warning Signs [Economic health indicators]
Replies: 262
Views: 34361

Re: Warning Signs [Economic health indicators]

I do understand that. I was just wondering the effect of today's decline on your warning sign calculation. Current stock prices have only minimal effect since it's mostly an economic indicator. PE10 is about the only component impacted and it actually went down (though that can be a bad sign coming...
by Clearly_Irrational
Mon Aug 24, 2015 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warning Signs [Economic health indicators]
Replies: 262
Views: 34361

Re: Warning Signs [Economic health indicators]

Would like to see an update on this after today's close. Still no signal. Remember, this is along the lines of an avalanche warning, it won't tell you prior to the start of the decline or even identify the top, but once the snow starts coming down the mountain you'll get a bit of warning before it ...
by Clearly_Irrational
Tue Aug 11, 2015 10:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Careers: MD, Non-MD, MBA, Engineering, Law, Teaching
Replies: 96
Views: 9240

Re: Careers: MD, Non-MD, MBA, Engineering, Law, Teaching

a wrote:So a #3 person
is probably 20% mentally healthy whereas a purely #4 person is 0%
mentally healthy.


I think you could have shortened your post to "I don't like introverts". I'm not sure how that's relevant to the conversation however.
by Clearly_Irrational
Fri Aug 07, 2015 4:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What's Your Monthly Food/Groceries Spending? My is through the roof?
Replies: 201
Views: 13912

Re: What's Your Monthly Food/Groceries Spending? My is through the roof?

I've spent more or less $1,000 per month for groceries (Excludes restaurants but includes wine) living in nyc, Seoul, Shanghai, and pretty much everywhere else I've lived since I started tracking spending. I would love to figure out how so many are able to do it for only a few hundred per month... ...
by Clearly_Irrational
Fri Aug 07, 2015 2:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What's Your Monthly Food/Groceries Spending? My is through the roof?
Replies: 201
Views: 13912

Re: What's Your Monthly Food/Groceries Spending? My is through the roof?

Caduceus wrote:I would gladly pay $200 a month not to have to cook :D


Honestly I doubt your savings would be that high, probably more in the neighborhood of $100, so if you're happy with your routine then don't worry about it.
by Clearly_Irrational
Fri Aug 07, 2015 12:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What's Your Monthly Food/Groceries Spending? My is through the roof?
Replies: 201
Views: 13912

Re: What's Your Monthly Food/Groceries Spending? My is through the roof?

Caduceus wrote:I spend less on weekends and occasionally don't get a chance to eat lunch due to work, so I average out at $450 a month for food. How do working professionals get much lower than this?


Less pre-packaged food, you pay a premium for the convenience.
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Aug 06, 2015 5:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What's Your Monthly Food/Groceries Spending? My is through the roof?
Replies: 201
Views: 13912

Re: What's Your Monthly Food/Groceries Spending? My is through the roof?

backpacker wrote:eat an entire live chicken every day or eat nothing but free-range organic artesian carrots.


I would like to buy your diet plan and/or subscribe to your newsletter.
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Aug 06, 2015 3:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What's Your Monthly Food/Groceries Spending? My is through the roof?
Replies: 201
Views: 13912

Re: What's Your Monthly Food/Groceries Spending? My is through the roof?



Pretty cool site. According to them we're right on target. Anyone else have feedback on their accuracy?
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Aug 06, 2015 3:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What's Your Monthly Food/Groceries Spending? My is through the roof?
Replies: 201
Views: 13912

Re: What's Your Monthly Food/Groceries Spending? My is through the roof?

As I believe discussions of diet and health are typically considered beyond the scope of the Bogleheads forums, I had presented the template merely as a way to meet the topic's goals of a sensible food budget while also meeting our dietary needs. I agreed on the sensible budget part and disagreed o...
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Aug 06, 2015 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warning Signs [Economic health indicators]
Replies: 262
Views: 34361

Re: Warning Signs [Economic health indicators]

I also look for indicators , but do little about it since my investment is in Vanguard's 2020 target. But watched a video by James Davidson, the sovereign investor, and he has some compelling thoughts/charts showing 'doom' is closer than 'we' think. Has anyone else heard of him or watched his video...
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warning Signs [Economic health indicators]
Replies: 262
Views: 34361

Re: Warning Signs [Economic health indicators]

It's been two months since the initial post. Any update? According to my indicator things have calmed down. If we are going to have a meltdown then either A) It's not the predictable kind or B) The time isn't here yet. Given some of the strange distortions I see in the market I'm leaning towards B,...
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Aug 05, 2015 10:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Careers: MD, Non-MD, MBA, Engineering, Law, Teaching
Replies: 96
Views: 9240

Re: Careers: MD, Non-MD, MBA, Engineering, Law, Teaching

2tall4economy wrote:Go into IT, specifically coding farm type jobs or corp sys admin. Seriously. I got into IT because I liked video games, as did many of my co-workers.


You sir win the career advice prize! As it turns out I work in IT, mostly in senior sysadmin, IT Management or Architect roles.
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Aug 05, 2015 10:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What's Your Monthly Food/Groceries Spending? My is through the roof?
Replies: 201
Views: 13912

Re: What's Your Monthly Food/Groceries Spending? My is through the roof?

An example of a meal-plan that can be done for less than $5/day per person, involves minimal prep, and meets all nutritional requirements while minimizing all nutritional risks: https://www.drmcdougall.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=445707#p445707 Well, any diet based mostly on bulk carbs is going to b...
by Clearly_Irrational
Mon Aug 03, 2015 4:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What's Your Monthly Food/Groceries Spending? My is through the roof?
Replies: 201
Views: 13912

Re: What's Your Monthly Food/Groceries Spending? My is through the roof?

Maybe not in their right mind, but they aren't alone. I know a few people who spend at least that much a Starbucks. I don't any more (too many calories and too costly) but I used to get a ham and cheese croissant and a vanilla latte every morning at the coffee shop, and then another coffee for my a...
by Clearly_Irrational
Mon Aug 03, 2015 3:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What's Your Monthly Food/Groceries Spending? My is through the roof?
Replies: 201
Views: 13912

Re: What's Your Monthly Food/Groceries Spending? My is through the roof?

livesoft wrote:Are you crazy? No, one time a day.


In what alternate reality is eating once a day considered to be a normal and healthy eating pattern for an average family?
by Clearly_Irrational
Mon Aug 03, 2015 3:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Careers: MD, Non-MD, MBA, Engineering, Law, Teaching
Replies: 96
Views: 9240

Re: Careers: MD, Non-MD, MBA, Engineering, Law, Teaching

I wanted to be a professional baseball player growing up, but realized my athletic skills (or lack thereof) prevented that from being a realistic option. Astronaut for me. Sadly I realized fairly early that the limited number of job slots available made it really unlikely that I could achieve that....
by Clearly_Irrational
Mon Aug 03, 2015 3:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Careers: MD, Non-MD, MBA, Engineering, Law, Teaching
Replies: 96
Views: 9240

Re: Careers: MD, Non-MD, MBA, Engineering, Law, Teaching

The most important factor is conspicuous in its absence: what you enjoy and the fit to your personality. Let's see, I enjoy the following things regardless of pay: Playing video games, board games or role playing games Watching shows/movies mostly science fiction, fantasy or military stuff though s...
by Clearly_Irrational
Mon Aug 03, 2015 2:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What's Your Monthly Food/Groceries Spending? My is through the roof?
Replies: 201
Views: 13912

Re: What's Your Monthly Food/Groceries Spending? My is through the roof?

1) Costs vary significantly by region. 2) Different diet choices can be cheaper, for example vegetarian or high processed food diets are both less expensive than "normal". 3) Some people don't care about taste or the sourcing of their food, that saves money 4) Not everyone has the same act...
by Clearly_Irrational
Mon Aug 03, 2015 2:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What's Your Monthly Food/Groceries Spending? My is through the roof?
Replies: 201
Views: 13912

Re: What's Your Monthly Food/Groceries Spending? My is through the roof?

livesoft wrote:Yes, that is through the roof. At more than $30 a day one could have take-out delivered every day and eat cheaper.


For two adults and one child three times a day? Better be some pretty cheap take out.
by Clearly_Irrational
Sat Jul 25, 2015 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models
Replies: 202
Views: 11925

Re: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models

In other words, you are defining "active" in such a way that there is no such thing as "passive". If making any decision at all about investing is "active", then there's zero need to even use the terms "active" and "passive", because we're all "...
by Clearly_Irrational
Fri Jul 24, 2015 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models
Replies: 202
Views: 11925

Re: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models

Maynard F. Speer wrote: I also wonder whether a true global portfolio would need to include options and derivatives


To be truly accurate I think it would, there is a lot of money sloshing around there.
by Clearly_Irrational
Fri Jul 24, 2015 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models
Replies: 202
Views: 11925

Re: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models

But if you hold 60:40, you're aiming to beat the market whatever way you slice it Changing the argument by making up definitions that no one else agrees with isn't going to get us very far. I agree with his definition, but I also agree with you that it's just a matter of semantics and pretty much a...
by Clearly_Irrational
Fri Jul 24, 2015 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models
Replies: 202
Views: 11925

Re: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models

The irony is that (many) Bogleheads are the very people who understand this stuff and can't help themselves from keeping an eye on all these esoteric financial statistics and the minute-by-minute fluctuations of the markets. That depends on what you do with the knowledge. I have a fairly complex sy...
by Clearly_Irrational
Fri Jul 24, 2015 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models
Replies: 202
Views: 11925

Re: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models

The big question is: let's say stocks are overvalued, what then? So what? The false syllogism is: a) Stocks are overvalued. b) Therefore, I must do something. Well, I think you could safely draw the following conclusions: 1) Equity performance will likely be below the historical average 2) I'll lik...
by Clearly_Irrational
Fri Jul 24, 2015 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models
Replies: 202
Views: 11925

Re: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models

HomerJ wrote:So different metrics give conflicting conclusions. Does that make it easier or harder to use a "system" to beat the market?


Forward P/E is garbage, I didn't use that even when I was actively trading. It's all fantasy numbers from untrustworthy sources.
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Jul 23, 2015 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Original Research] The Failure of PE Market Timing Models
Replies: 50
Views: 3703

Re: [Original Research] The Failure of PE Market Timing Models

rca1824, I agree with nisiprius, there is a lot of value in playing with numbers on your own, instead of just believing what other say (TAA believers or naysayers). You will reach conclusions that you truly believe in, and this in itself has a lot of value ( :wink: ). Whatever plan you come up with...
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Jul 22, 2015 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Original Research] The Failure of PE Market Timing Models
Replies: 50
Views: 3703

Re: [Original Research] The Failure of PE Market Timing Models

I think for a strategy to be robust it should work across 100+ years of history and also work under more general allocation strategies not involve arbitrary cut-off points that can be too easily tweaked into succeeding on backtested data. I'm not sure I agree about the cut-off points, but if that's...
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Jul 22, 2015 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Original Research] The Failure of PE Market Timing Models
Replies: 50
Views: 3703

Re: [Original Research] The Failure of PE Market Timing Models

I may still tinker with this, but ultimately it looks like there is no free lunch in PE market timing models. I have seen evidence using short periods like 2000-2010 that show they work, but that's just data mining. Using the full 135 year data set does not support the hypothesis that PE market tim...
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Jul 22, 2015 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Harry Markowitz wrong? Why Optimal Portfolios Are So Difficult To Create
Replies: 33
Views: 3254

Re: Is Harry Markowitz wrong? Why Optimal Portfolios Are So Difficult To Create

It's a useful model in that it informs us about the risk/return trade off and how adding various components can affect our portfolio outcome. The numbers can give you an idea of a reasonable range of outcomes but given all the flaws in the data available you'll never be able to actually "optimi...
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Jul 16, 2015 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What 2008/09 has done to me
Replies: 158
Views: 19714

Re: What 2008/09 has done to me

The tech crash was actually more traumatic for me, after going through that mess I was determined to be ready when it happened again. The housing crash was still pretty traumatic though: 1) For a while I feared the collapse of the entire banking system, I got close to pulling all my cash out to avoi...
by Clearly_Irrational
Mon Jul 13, 2015 4:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's lining up to be the next big bubble?
Replies: 34
Views: 2951

Re: What's lining up to be the next big bubble?

There is really a good point here. Before the 2008-09 financial crisis, many economists referred to the American Economy going through what they called the "Great Moderation". Economic growth in general wasn't as fast as it had been at some points in the past, but the crises weren't as bi...
by Clearly_Irrational
Mon Jul 13, 2015 3:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's lining up to be the next big bubble?
Replies: 34
Views: 2951

Re: What's lining up to be the next big bubble?

I'm not sure what the bubble is exactly. There is a lot of money sloshing around with not enough places to go so many assets are becoming very richly valued. They slapped some bandaids on after the last crisis, so what usually happens is that the stress breaks out somewhere new. There is definitely ...
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Jul 08, 2015 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Aren't we obsessing way too much about our portfolios?
Replies: 84
Views: 6897

Re: Aren't we obsessing way too much about our portfolios?

BahamaMan wrote:Yes, the good old Optimistic data from the early 1930s!


The data that only includes one major crash instead of three and some of the strongest growth years ever recorded, yes that data.
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Jul 08, 2015 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Aren't we obsessing way too much about our portfolios?
Replies: 84
Views: 6897

Re: Aren't we obsessing way too much about our portfolios?

BahamaMan wrote:That's the reality of financial planning.... the "4% SWR Rule" is based on Worst Case Historical Records.


With a 95% confidence level based on older more optimistic data yes.
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Jul 08, 2015 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Aren't we obsessing way too much about our portfolios?
Replies: 84
Views: 6897

Re: Aren't we obsessing way too much about our portfolios?

BahamaMan wrote:That's why you should always plan for the worst.


Apparently my idea of "worst" is a lot worse than yours, since if I was doing that I wouldn't be investing at all, instead I'd be filling my bunker with shelf stable food and ammo.
by Clearly_Irrational
Tue Jul 07, 2015 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Aren't we obsessing way too much about our portfolios?
Replies: 84
Views: 6897

Re: Aren't we obsessing way too much about our portfolios?

As you can see, within limits, it made very little difference over this period of time whether you held 40% in stocks or 60%, and whether you rebalanced your allocation annually or not. That's not the conclusion I drew from that information. Allocation difference 0.61% per year which adds up to a 2...
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Jul 02, 2015 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warning Signs [Economic health indicators]
Replies: 262
Views: 34361

Re: Warning Signs

Well the new recession indicator reading is out today and not only is it lower, they revised the older readings lower as well. It's pretty common to have elevated noisy periods in the signals prior to an actual problem occurring, which is why multiple indicators are required. Looks like I raised my ...
by Clearly_Irrational
Wed Jul 01, 2015 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Too high Intra-Portfolio Correlation (IPC)?
Replies: 28
Views: 1430

Re: Too high Intra-Portfolio Correlation (IPC)?

Hadn't heard of this site before, but since my portfolio is based conceptually on having a low IPC I thought I'd check it out. My setup rated a 0.25 which I'm pretty satisfied with. A conventional three fund portfolio of roughly equal risk came in at 0.33
by Clearly_Irrational
Mon Jun 29, 2015 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: dow futures down 200+ points
Replies: 84
Views: 9921

Re: dow futures down 200+ points

Personally I believe the markets are "weak-form" efficient, wherein someone with enough patience, know-how and resources can find small opportunities here and there to gain small advantages. But it's such a small effect that to figure out if a manager is "skilled" or just "...
by Clearly_Irrational
Mon Jun 29, 2015 3:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tell Me I'm Stupid To Consider Quitting My Job and Moving
Replies: 157
Views: 38375

Re: Tell Me I'm Stupid To Consider Quitting My Job and Moving

Don't just keep doing the same thing and being miserable. I still advise having a plan before you leap, but if you're so miserable why haven't you taken any time to figure it out? Personally if I were that unhappy I'd be obsessing over it nearly every free minute, especially with the kind of flexibi...
by Clearly_Irrational
Mon Jun 29, 2015 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: dow futures down 200+ points
Replies: 84
Views: 9921

Re: dow futures down 200+ points

My IPS still has me in buy and hold mode so I won't be taking any action on today's price move. For fun, here's some analysis if I were still trading: P&F Pattern is a triple bottom breakdown with a price target of 1991 on the S&P500. The market has been in a trading range since April but th...
by Clearly_Irrational
Mon Jun 29, 2015 2:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pay student loan off at 2.875%? - otherwise, 14 years to go
Replies: 52
Views: 5750

Re: Pay student loan off at 2.875%? - otherwise, 14 years to go

The math says leave it, but personally I'd pay it off just to get the psychological reassurance. Either way it's not particularly impactful so it's a matter of choice.
by Clearly_Irrational
Fri Jun 26, 2015 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25
Replies: 331
Views: 27155

Re: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25

Shiller today: “I’ve been very wary about advising people to pull out of the market even though my CAPE ratio is at one of the highest levels ever in history,” Shiller told Bloomberg in April. “Something funny is going on. History is always coming up with new puzzles.” I agree with Shiller on both ...
by Clearly_Irrational
Fri Jun 26, 2015 9:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tech jobs - is job-hopping the best way to get ahead?
Replies: 92
Views: 13730

Re: Tech jobs - is job-hopping the best way to get ahead?

This is true more generally. If you work for a company that specializes in X and you specialize in Y, even if they need Y, it is hard to be fully accepted in the in to the Club which will tend to be reserved for those who specialize in X. My experience is that the company doesn't have to specialize...
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Jun 25, 2015 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do Bogleheads/BiggerPocketers think there is only one way?
Replies: 123
Views: 14696

Re: Why do Bogleheads/BiggerPocketers think there is only one way?

Good point that multiple properties can mitigate the volatility, but unless you're living in the Midwest, you're going to need a pretty large sum in the seven figures to have several properties. Well it depends on what kind of properties you're talking about I suppose and whether or not you expect ...
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Jun 25, 2015 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do Bogleheads/BiggerPocketers think there is only one way?
Replies: 123
Views: 14696

Re: Why do Bogleheads/BiggerPocketers think there is only one way?

I just don't think rental income is steady . With multiple properties it seems pretty steady to me, though steady is not the same as zero volatility. unless you have a eager member of your family willing to assist, there's sweat equity involved in being a landlord. How many people in their golden y...
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Jun 25, 2015 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do Bogleheads/BiggerPocketers think there is only one way?
Replies: 123
Views: 14696

Re: Why do Bogleheads/BiggerPocketers think there is only one way?

joelly wrote:Without getting into real estate, I already have a passive income. It's hubby's paycheck. :beer


You must be a superhero if you consider marriage to be passive.
by Clearly_Irrational
Thu Jun 25, 2015 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do Bogleheads/BiggerPocketers think there is only one way?
Replies: 123
Views: 14696

Re: Why do Bogleheads/BiggerPocketers think there is only one way?

Stock dividends can be kind of unpredictable, but bond interest payments are pretty steady, I am kind of baffled by this. If you can afford to support your entire retirement solely from bond payments then withdrawal strategies are moot as you have vastly more money than you need. If stocks are invo...

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