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Re: Betterment Portfolio Review - Need 3 Fund equivalent %

I believe the duplication is for tax loss harvesting purposes.
by Chan_va
Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Betterment Portfolio Review - Need 3 Fund equivalent %
Replies: 8
Views: 498

Re: Retirement and my plan on where to put my money

I have no significant debts except for a mortgage on a condo in Austin. The mortgage is at $390,000 As a newcomer to this forum I have what might be a very dumb question-please be gentle. I often see statements similar to the one above, ie 'I have no significant debt except for a mortgage...' and t...
by Chan_va
Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement and my plan on where to put my money
Replies: 14
Views: 1527

Re: If holding cash, do you want a Great Depression?

Apart from the ethical issues, you are making a couple of assumptions which are questionable 1. The markets are endlessly elastic and will always mean revert in your investing lifetime - This has held true for the US markets over the past century, but examples abound in global markets where the mark...
by Chan_va
Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If holding cash, do you want a Great Depression?
Replies: 50
Views: 3759

Re: Any married (MFJ) spouses contribute to two HSA accounts

No you cant do this - you are capped at $6650 for the family for 2015. From http://www.irs.gov/publications/p969/ar02.html#en_US_2013_publink1000204045 Rules for married people. If either spouse has family HDHP coverage, both spouses are treated as having family HDHP coverage. If each spouse has fam...
by Chan_va
Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:35 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any married (MFJ) spouses contribute to two HSA accounts?
Replies: 2
Views: 305

Re: Your Thoughts on my Portfolio

Thanks JG. I agree that simplicity is something that I don't really have at this point. Just kind of woke up one day with all of these funds/stocks. Can't say it takes a lot of time to maintain though. Plus it gives me something to do when I can't play golf. Don't want to incur taxes (something I r...
by Chan_va
Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Your Thoughts on my Portfolio
Replies: 16
Views: 1287

Re: Will I get taxed if family sends my bank $50K from abroa

No issues and no taxes due on the money coming in from abroad. If you receive more than 100k in a year from a foreign source you have to disclose it to the irs with your return, but no taxes due. Billions of dollars are moved every day across countries. Don't stress it. Once the money is here, she w...
by Chan_va
Mon Oct 27, 2014 11:52 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Will I get taxed if family sends my bank $50K from abroad?
Replies: 10
Views: 1081

Re: Bogleheads.org equivalents for other areas of life?

This is ridiculously specialized, but http://www.fractalforums.com/ is a fantastic resource for folks interested in fractals (mathematical, computational, and artistic aspects). Wonderful. Thanks. Sharing with my son. I also think this is terrific--and not ridiculously specialized at all! Thanks fo...
by Chan_va
Mon Oct 27, 2014 10:28 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bogleheads.org equivalents for other areas of life?
Replies: 69
Views: 6378

Re: Your Thoughts on my Portfolio

If I am reading this right, you have a portfolio of 10M+, and annual expenses of 120K. Of which 106K will come from pensions and SS. So, you are looking at a withdrawal rate of roughly 0.2%. At that rate, pretty much any investment scheme, short of Bernie Madoff will work. Unless you want to drastic...
by Chan_va
Mon Oct 27, 2014 4:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Your Thoughts on my Portfolio
Replies: 16
Views: 1287

Re: Payflex HSA - Review and Investment options?

Thanks for the link. Not promising in terms of funds available.
by Chan_va
Mon Oct 27, 2014 3:46 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Payflex HSA - Review and Investment options?
Replies: 3
Views: 331

Re: Yield Curve Investigations

Good topic Kevin. In addition to this, a suggestion is to plot the TIPS yield curve and compare this to the nominal curve. This gives the inflation expectation of the market, but also interesting in that during crises, the 2 curves don't seem to move in parallel. Also, any reason you restricted your...
by Chan_va
Mon Oct 27, 2014 3:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve Investigations
Replies: 19
Views: 1466

Re: What is the appeal of smart watches?

1995: What is the appeal of email? 1998: Who really needs the internet apart from tech geeks? 2002: Why text when I can call someone? 2007: Who needs a phone that's "smart"? 2009: A tablet that's connected to the internet? What's the appeal? 2014: Who would wear wear a smart watch? I shou...
by Chan_va
Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is the appeal of smart watches?
Replies: 22
Views: 1903

Re: Total bond market vs. Total international bond market /

Depends on your parent's tax situation. What is their marginal tax rate? If it's high, and if you have to put bonds in taxable, the traditional recommendation would be to use an intermediate term muni fund. So, in your case, if you have 400K of bonds you need to allocate and have 250K of space in th...
by Chan_va
Mon Oct 27, 2014 11:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total bond market vs. Total international bond market / IRA
Replies: 7
Views: 520

Re: Total bond market vs. Total international bond market /

#2 - International bonds are still bonds - so, place them where you would place US bonds in terms of tax efficiency.

Re #1 and #3 - endless debates. As someone (Taylor?) says - when experts disagree on something, it probably does not matter much either way.
by Chan_va
Mon Oct 27, 2014 11:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total bond market vs. Total international bond market / IRA
Replies: 7
Views: 520

Payflex HSA - Review and Investment options?

Folks, My wife's company is going to be offering an HDHP/HSA administered by Payflex. Anyone use this administrator, and what is your review of them? What are their investment options like? The reviews online seem pretty terrible. I can't seem to find out any of this through HR or through Payflex pr...
by Chan_va
Mon Oct 27, 2014 10:42 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Payflex HSA - Review and Investment options?
Replies: 3
Views: 331

Re: Ham and Egger's Theory? [Buy Whatever Cap Size is laggin

HamNEgg, Look up something called the "Dogs of the Dow" strategy. It involved buying the worst performing stocks in the Dow every year. It worked till it didn't. This strategy and variations have been tried before. The Achilles heel of all these is that there is no natural "timeframe&...
by Chan_va
Mon Oct 27, 2014 10:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ham and Egger's Theory? [Buy Whatever Cap Size is lagging) ]
Replies: 38
Views: 3033

Re: What is the appeal of smart watches?

1995: What is the appeal of email?
1998: Who really needs the internet apart from tech geeks?
2002: Why text when I can call someone?
2007: Who needs a phone that's "smart"?
2009: A tablet that's connected to the internet? What's the appeal?
2014: Who would wear wear a smart watch?
by Chan_va
Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:38 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is the appeal of smart watches?
Replies: 22
Views: 1903

Re: Mr. Market turns on Amazon

I just don't like this person to use public's money to try all his crazy ideas. Even venture capitalists need feasibility study. Yes, he could use a drone to deliver toilet paper to someone who just needs it, at what cost? This is exactly why the markets are so brilliant. Those who think it's the f...
by Chan_va
Fri Oct 24, 2014 12:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Market turns on Amazon
Replies: 42
Views: 4412

Re: Mr. Market turns on Amazon

Investing for growth is not an irrational idea. History has shown that the most wildly profitable companies are monopolies or near monopolies. If management believes that they can corner the market, then it is in the shareholder interest to invest every penny and then some into growth. You don't inv...
by Chan_va
Fri Oct 24, 2014 11:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Market turns on Amazon
Replies: 42
Views: 4412

Re: More Aggressive AA Post Home Purchase

You are justifying a higher stock allocation based on a higher monthly cash flow - Imagine if you got a raise tomorrow, and were still renting. Would that make you change your asset allocation? I am not saying that 72-25 is better than 90-10, but make sure you are doing it for the right reasons. You...
by Chan_va
Fri Oct 24, 2014 11:41 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: More Aggressive AA Post Home Purchase
Replies: 16
Views: 836

Re: Bond exposure in my portfolio

Are you maxing out your annual allocation to iBonds? First do that before you add any other bonds to your taxable portfolio.
by Chan_va
Fri Oct 24, 2014 11:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond exposure in my portfolio
Replies: 13
Views: 1473

Re: Three Possible Outcomes for Future Investment Returns

.... Rather, investors should just expect that investment returns are likely to be lower than historical averages .... I am not convinced that the concepts of historical averages and reversion to the mean make sense for the markets (and by extension, projection of future yields based on those). Bec...
by Chan_va
Thu Oct 23, 2014 1:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three Possible Outcomes for Future Investment Returns
Replies: 32
Views: 2312

Re: Bond fund, why such high returns?

Thanks for all the responses. I think i understand it now. So lets say you would buy a bond with a value of 1000 and a return of 10% over a period of 10 years. You hold it for 5 years and that year bonds with a value of a 1000 are issued at a 5% return rate for 5 years. You can sell your bond now f...
by Chan_va
Thu Oct 23, 2014 1:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond fund, why such high returns?
Replies: 13
Views: 1575

Re: Three Possible Outcomes for Future Investment Returns

Thanks Simplegift, I was looking at the wrong legend. For added color, here is some really long term data. Here is the US 10 year yield from 1790. As you can see, the period from 1980 to present has been the greatest bull market in Bonds ever. This means that we the coming decades are going to be a ...
by Chan_va
Thu Oct 23, 2014 1:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three Possible Outcomes for Future Investment Returns
Replies: 32
Views: 2312

Re: Spotting bubbles

Read this classic - Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises Bubbles have been with us as long as the financial system has existed. Bubbles are painfully obvious in retrospect, but it's awfully hard to recognize one when you are in the middle of it. Even if you do recognize that yo...
by Chan_va
Thu Oct 23, 2014 10:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spotting bubbles
Replies: 2
Views: 348

Re: More funds = more "efficient" rebalancing?

As mentioned, the total funds continuously rebalance. Slice and dice allows you to decide when and how much to rebalance - which may be good or bad, no one knows.

One advantage of slice and dice in a taxable portfolio is that is gives you more options to tax loss harvest.
by Chan_va
Thu Oct 23, 2014 10:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More funds = more "efficient" rebalancing?
Replies: 26
Views: 1560

Re: Three Possible Outcomes for Future Investment Returns

Can you post what method you are using to calculate yields? I don't see how real 10 year treasury yields have been negative for a majority of your time period
by Chan_va
Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three Possible Outcomes for Future Investment Returns
Replies: 32
Views: 2312

Re: Just wondering how you personally calculate net worth

I discount my tax deferred holdings by 25%. An arbitrary number I pulled out of a hat. I don't discount taxable holdings by the cap gains rate on the gains, although for consistency I should. An interesting consideration - to discount a tax deferred holding. But if I did that, let's say I have 50K ...
by Chan_va
Wed Oct 22, 2014 9:36 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Just wondering how you personally calculate net worth
Replies: 56
Views: 3710

Re: Why I won't have bond funds

The question is, how low does the yield on the 10-year Treasury have to go before those bonds become unattractive for investment ? Unattractive compared to what? Investing is not like monopoly (in the version I used to play) where skipping your turn is an option. So the question is, where would you...
by Chan_va
Wed Oct 22, 2014 5:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I won't have bond funds
Replies: 54
Views: 7917

Re: Just wondering how you personally calculate net worth

I discount my tax deferred holdings by 25%. An arbitrary number I pulled out of a hat. I don't discount taxable holdings by the cap gains rate on the gains, although for consistency I should.
by Chan_va
Wed Oct 22, 2014 4:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Just wondering how you personally calculate net worth
Replies: 56
Views: 3710

Re: Bond fund, why such high returns?

You are confusing bond coupon with yield. See here . It's true that a bond typically has a fixed coupon rate that does not change. However, what you see on the charts is yield, which is a function of price the bond was bought at and the initial coupon. The price of a bond varies daily with interest ...
by Chan_va
Wed Oct 22, 2014 12:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond fund, why such high returns?
Replies: 13
Views: 1575

Re: Active bond funds better than indexes? Pimco thinks so

The data seems to back this up - at least for intermediate term investment grade funds. A majority of active funds beach the benchmark over the 1,3 and 5 year intervals for this category.

From the latest SPIVA report for 2014.

Image
by Chan_va
Wed Oct 22, 2014 12:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active bond funds better than indexes? Pimco thinks so
Replies: 36
Views: 2463

Re: Your personal risk level: Got your flu shot yet?

I am a giant wuss when it comes to needles. But now that they have a nasal spray version, I have no excuse. That spray version is for children. Doubt if you could find any provider that would administer it to you. You aren't a 10 year old, are you? :P :P :P I dont think so. From the CDC Who can be ...
by Chan_va
Thu Oct 16, 2014 1:48 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Your personal risk level: Got your flu shot yet?
Replies: 93
Views: 3001

Re: Dry Powder

Isn't that what bonds and rebalancing were designed for? I don't get it
by Chan_va
Thu Oct 16, 2014 10:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dry Powder
Replies: 49
Views: 3528

Re: Which HDHP Plan to choose?

I would go with Option 2. The premium difference is about $1000/yr, but the employer makes up $800 of it by contributing to the HSA. So, for $200/yr, you are reducing your out of pocket max and deductible by over $2000. I view that as a reasonable insurance premium in case of unexpected medical expe...
by Chan_va
Thu Oct 16, 2014 10:20 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which HDHP Plan to choose?
Replies: 7
Views: 440

Re: Your personal risk level: Got your flu shot yet?

I am a giant wuss when it comes to needles. But now that they have a nasal spray version, I have no excuse.
by Chan_va
Thu Oct 16, 2014 10:12 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Your personal risk level: Got your flu shot yet?
Replies: 93
Views: 3001

Re: International index investing

The nature of a diversified portfolio is that something is always lagging something else in the portfolio. We can't all be above average. Remember the tear that emerging markets went on from 2002-2007? You wouldn't want to miss out on something like that would you? Besides, you are not just buying S...
by Chan_va
Wed Oct 15, 2014 11:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International index investing
Replies: 4
Views: 570

Re: At What Cost?

Yes, that is the case, at least at Vanguard. 4PM is the cutoff for receiving that days closing price.
by Chan_va
Wed Oct 15, 2014 10:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: At What Cost?
Replies: 4
Views: 487

Re: Relatively new here. What did you do in 2008/09

I too was a deer in the headlights, and didn't do anything. What I realized is that during typical market corrections, there is fear. But there is a zone beyond fear, and that is numbness.
by Chan_va
Wed Oct 15, 2014 9:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Relatively new here. What did you do in 2008/09
Replies: 106
Views: 7004

Re: Advice on starting "new"

Jerseydoc, welcome. I would start here - http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Getting_started. You can also call Vanguard, and they will walk you through the process, and handle a lot of the paperwork to transfer things over. One of the first things you should do is decide on an asset allocation that you ...
by Chan_va
Wed Oct 15, 2014 9:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice on starting "new"
Replies: 5
Views: 627

Re: When people put all their eggs in the wrong basket

I like thought experiments. In my earlier message cited here, I looked for possible explanations of why one would put all money into a single stock. It's easy to claim that some people are just stupid and leave the topic. I wanted to find a plausible explanation apart from stupidity. Victoria I thi...
by Chan_va
Wed Oct 15, 2014 11:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When people put all their eggs in the wrong basket
Replies: 233
Views: 26036

Re: Bought a house, now time to think about retirement (help

Step 1 - calm down. Step 2 - repeat step 1. You are young and make almost 5x the median hh income, and have a positive net worth. Step 3. Estimate your expenses with the new mortgage, childcare costs etc. Step 4. If your total savings are in the 15% of pre tax income range, you are ok. You can alway...
by Chan_va
Sun Oct 12, 2014 9:16 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bought a house, now time to think about retirement (help)
Replies: 27
Views: 1911

Re: *Best town I've never heard of

Charlottesville va.
by Chan_va
Sat Oct 11, 2014 11:40 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best town I've never heard of [for relocating]
Replies: 97
Views: 9774

Re: Financial health check-up

If I am doing the math right, you have a positive net worth of 200K, with a stable job and pension possibilities. You are doing fine for your age. Keep the savings up. On the condo front - what are you netting from renting it out? Calculate your Cap Rate . Unless that is good, you are making a conce...
by Chan_va
Wed Oct 08, 2014 10:36 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial health check-up
Replies: 12
Views: 786

Re: When people put all their eggs in the wrong basket

Those types of forums tend to support groupthink. It's very common with ..... Anyone who doubts the .... is shouted down and is routinely accused of having ulterior motives in order to...... " The same could be said (to a lesser extent) about this forum. Good reminder to keep an open mind abou...
by Chan_va
Wed Oct 08, 2014 10:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When people put all their eggs in the wrong basket
Replies: 233
Views: 26036

Re: Financial crises are inevitable

Read this classic - Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises Crashes have been around since the dawn of time. The classic boglehead re balancing strategy has worked well in the past. I don't think any downside limiting strategy apart from the standard - "get more conservative ...
by Chan_va
Tue Oct 07, 2014 10:07 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial crises are inevitable
Replies: 3
Views: 395

Re: does the underlying index matter?

Roll into the TSP. Indexes are close enough, it doesn't matter.
by Chan_va
Tue Oct 07, 2014 9:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: does the underlying index matter?
Replies: 3
Views: 305

Re: Wife Expecting, Down to One Income Source

Congrats! One income is definitely doable.

Remember that babies need very little "stuff". Get the minimum - car seat is pretty much the only "must have".
by Chan_va
Tue Oct 07, 2014 9:49 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wife Expecting, Down to One Income Source
Replies: 116
Views: 8301

Re: GDP, CPI - What to do if they aren't accurate?

It has been emperically proven that CPI tracks real inflation very closely. But, If you are convinced that real inflation will be more than CPI, you can 1. Take out a big fixed 30 yr mortgage 2. invest 100% in equities 3. take a short position on TIPS believing that the market has mispriced it If yo...
by Chan_va
Fri Oct 03, 2014 4:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GDP, CPI - What to do if they aren't accurate?
Replies: 8
Views: 405

Re: Stock Dividend Yields & Share Buybacks — A Surprise

What's the equivalent here? What I said above: if there were systematic mispricings around either dividends or buybacks, we'd see relevant fund strategies succeed wildly. But we don't, so the chaos is smooth overall. And unlike physics, if we did see such funds their very success would eventually d...
by Chan_va
Fri Oct 03, 2014 4:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Dividend Yields & Share Buybacks — A Surprise
Replies: 70
Views: 4444

Re: Steps to TLH from a Vanguard Mutual Fund Account

I have to disagree a little bit with Chan_va. A wash sale is not illegal and is easy to report on one's tax return. Sometimes it is much more important and money saving to TLH even if one had an automatic purchase or dividend reinvestment recently. Plus if those shares have identified losses, then ...
by Chan_va
Fri Oct 03, 2014 3:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Steps to TLH from a Vanguard Mutual Fund Account
Replies: 24
Views: 1180
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