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by Chan_va
Thu May 14, 2015 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retiring in your 40's
Replies: 21
Views: 2811

Re: Retiring in your 40's

I retired a few months before I turned 40. Here are my simplified steps. 1. Saved enough in retirement accounts to fund retirement. Since most of mine is in tax advantaged accounts, I plan to use the 72(t) method to access the money when I start withdrawing to avoid paying a tax penalty. Not many p...
by Chan_va
Thu May 14, 2015 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VA Municipal Bonds
Replies: 10
Views: 882

Re: VA Municipal Bonds

Vanguard has 4 national tax exempt muni funds - with duration ranging from 1 to 6 years. The intermediate term tax exempt has a duration of approx 5 years. So, in terms of bond volatility, you will likely see similar volatility to a total bond market index fund. If you want lower volatility, you can...
by Chan_va
Thu May 14, 2015 9:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retiring in your 40's
Replies: 21
Views: 2811

Re: Retiring in your 40's

Thanks folks. From a career standpoint, I will have to shift into a role that will allow for flexible schedules. My current job is not really geared toward part time work.
by Chan_va
Thu May 14, 2015 7:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retiring in your 40's
Replies: 21
Views: 2811

Retiring in your 40's

Folks, As I turn 40 this year, it has become increasingly clear to me that I have no desire to be working full time in my 50's. For those of you who retired / switched to a part time role in your mid -late 40's, any tips on what I should be doing in the next 5-7 years to prepare? Here are some perti...
by Chan_va
Fri May 08, 2015 2:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: much ado about coasting (through life)
Replies: 176
Views: 21252

Re: much ado about coasting (through life)

You aren't going to get too much support here OP. All those who agree with you are not at a computer, they are off coasting :)

FWIW, I am rooting for you
by Chan_va
Mon May 04, 2015 4:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How To Find The Best Doctor
Replies: 42
Views: 2882

Re: How To Find The Best Doctor

This becomes vastly more complex if you ask the question: How can I find the doctor who will provide the best value for my money? With insurance deductibles going up, this is an increasingly important question, and one that is pretty much impossible to answer in a reasonable fashion right now. This ...
by Chan_va
Thu Apr 30, 2015 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk Aversion vs. Loss Aversion
Replies: 17
Views: 1297

Re: Risk Aversion vs. Loss Aversion

Simple case of the pronouns.

I am risk averse, you are loss averse, he/she is a weenie scared of the market.
by Chan_va
Thu Apr 30, 2015 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks returned "just 0.6%" 1915-1982
Replies: 56
Views: 5688

Re: US stocks returned "just 0.6%" 1915-1982

Stock buybacks, huh. Why are such massive resources being devoted to stock repurchases? Corporate executives give several reasons, which I will discuss later. But none of them has close to the explanatory power of this simple truth: Stock-based instruments make up the majority of their pay, and in ...
by Chan_va
Mon Apr 27, 2015 2:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Roasting green coffee beans at home
Replies: 10
Views: 975

Re: Roasting green coffee beans at home

I tried roasting for a while using a stovetop popcorn machine. Fun experience, but objectively, my roast was never as good as a good fresh local professional roast. So I gave up.
by Chan_va
Mon Apr 27, 2015 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's holding cash?
Replies: 86
Views: 6514

Re: Who's holding cash?

I have been building up a house downpayment fund in cash greater than the 20% required. Partly because I don't like debt and want to minimize my mortgage, and partly as a hedge.
by Chan_va
Mon Apr 27, 2015 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Balanced Index from Cradle to Grave
Replies: 32
Views: 3338

Re: Vanguard Balanced Index from Cradle to Grave

nisiprius wrote: The thing that's hard for people to accept is that there is a fairly big zoo of portfolios of which it can be said that they are all sane, that there is no way to prove which is best, and even thirty years from now no way to prove whether the highest-returning one was smart or just...
by Chan_va
Fri Apr 17, 2015 2:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Don't have a plan, what to do with my money?
Replies: 12
Views: 1650

Re: Don't have a plan, what to do with my money?

What's the rush to buy a house? Don't fall into the 'you are just throwing your money away on rent' fallacy. At your age, the flexibility that renting offers should not be discounted. I would just invest your extra cash in the market according to your aa. Average your way over time if you are nervou...
by Chan_va
Wed Apr 15, 2015 3:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2015 net worth survey
Replies: 20
Views: 3008

Re: 2015 net worth survey

Only 98 people took the survey, 27 less than the age of 35 same as our age range, 18 with less than 130k debt (our mortgage), 9 with a portfolio greater than 250k excluding home equity. These numbers seem very low to me. Are you sure you are looking at the right survey? I count close to 1,000 respo...
by Chan_va
Sun Apr 12, 2015 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much riskier are munis than treasuries?
Replies: 32
Views: 3953

Re: How much riskier are munis than treasuries?

You can compare current treasury yields vs. Muni Yields to get an idea of how the markets are pricing the risk. You really need to compare the tax equivalent yield (TEY) when talking about muni's vs treasuries. As you can see here, depending on the maturity, muni's are yielding anywhere from 25%-60%...
by Chan_va
Sun Apr 12, 2015 10:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Input wanted from BMW owners
Replies: 44
Views: 4502

Re: Input wanted from BMW owners

Budget roughly 1.5-2k/year - that has been my experience.

Just yesterday, I had a DSC warning light come on in my 2007 530. Internet research seems to indicate that its a steering angle sensor. Probably going to cost 4 digits.
by Chan_va
Mon Apr 06, 2015 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are Bonds expensive?
Replies: 24
Views: 2386

Re: Why are Bonds expensive?

So I'm trying to find out if my *theory* is correct :wink: - that is baby-boomers are at the age to prefer and require safe investment like bonds ; and they also think houses are, well, safe as houses. Is my theory correct? Maybe I'm totally wrong about this. Thanks anyway. James, individual invest...
by Chan_va
Wed Mar 25, 2015 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I've Got to be Doing "Something". And You?
Replies: 22
Views: 3236

Re: I've Got to be Doing "Something". And You?

I am not so sure. If you believe that markets are even vaguely efficient, and expand the definition of markets to include things like land-lording, then the risk/reward/effort trade off is baked in. We have had a generation or more of great equity returns, but there has to be some hidden tail risk b...
by Chan_va
Wed Mar 25, 2015 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hedging interest rate risk
Replies: 6
Views: 783

Re: Hedging interest rate risk

Edited after I did some basic thinking. Interest rate sensitivity of preferred stocks has 2 parts. One being interest rates, other being more equity like behavior dependent on market conditions. Often the second swamps the first, so it would be hard to hedge just by shorting treasuries. You would ne...
by Chan_va
Sat Mar 21, 2015 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock for a foreigner
Replies: 23
Views: 1230

Re: How much international stock for a foreigner

If you were a perfectly rational, emotionless investor, the theoretical answer would probably be match your home country percentage to the global market weights. However, most of us are not built that way, and there is a significant behavioral component here. The most important factor is whether you...
by Chan_va
Mon Mar 16, 2015 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best investment in a deflationary scenario
Replies: 11
Views: 1402

Re: Best investment in a deflationary scenario

Long bonds
Pay off debt
by Chan_va
Mon Feb 16, 2015 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best Condo Sell Strategy?
Replies: 17
Views: 1046

Re: Best Condo Sell Strategy?

Yeah overpricing is a bad idea. I am looking right now and I can tell you that anything overpriced I don't click on and don't return to. Odds are that the owner has unrealistic expectations. And anything that has been in the market for over 30 days, I start to question why.
by Chan_va
Mon Feb 16, 2015 11:52 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What 3 MATERIAL things would you take with you?
Replies: 34
Views: 1487

Re: What 3 MATERIAL things would you take with you?

I would make the choice as part of a collective deliberation, with a few thousand people similar to me in terms of ideology, methodology and values. We would find each other through facebook and twitter. If a group comes together along these lines comprising 5,000 people, then we get 15,000 items, ...
by Chan_va
Mon Feb 16, 2015 11:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What 3 MATERIAL things would you take with you?
Replies: 34
Views: 1487

Re: What 3 MATERIAL things would you take with you?

chaz wrote:DW and our 2 daughters.


That is a given. Everyone gets to go. The question is more about the everyday small things that you value after family, friends etc.
by Chan_va
Mon Feb 16, 2015 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I raise my tenants rent?
Replies: 35
Views: 2051

Re: Should I raise my tenants rent?

Assuming the rental is cash flow positive and you don't need the rental income now, a raise that matches inflation would not be out of order. Given the low inflation rate now, I wouldn't bother.
by Chan_va
Mon Feb 16, 2015 11:21 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What 3 MATERIAL things would you take with you?
Replies: 34
Views: 1487

Re: What 3 MATERIAL things would you take with you?

I would not go. I'd go. What a fantastic adventure. Might as well die on Mars as Earth. For my 3 things I'd take 3 big moving vans packed with everything I could fit into them. Nasa's minutarization tech only works on things that can be bought as a whole package. They have to get the design specs f...
by Chan_va
Mon Feb 16, 2015 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with left over money.
Replies: 11
Views: 868

Re: What to do with left over money.

Look up your life expectancy from the actuarial tables. Factor in that your ability to do the things you enjoy now will gradually diminish over time. Then add in the odds that you get hit by a bus tomorrow. Money is like a battery. It has no value apart from what it can power. I'd say your time char...
by Chan_va
Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What 3 MATERIAL things would you take with you?
Replies: 34
Views: 1487

What 3 MATERIAL things would you take with you?

It's the year 2017. NASA announces that the comet NG3D7 (They didn't have time to come up with a witty name) is on a direct collision course with earth in a year, and it's large enough to wipe us all out. This unites humanity like never before, and we build giant colonies on Mars, along with fleets ...
by Chan_va
Mon Feb 16, 2015 8:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does anyone like the new Toyota/Lexus grilles?
Replies: 61
Views: 4406

Re: Does anyone like the new Toyota/Lexus grilles?

I read a review of the new Lexus rc coupe that nailed it. "It's like a whorehouse. No one wants to be seen going in. But once in, no one wants to come out." Personally, I would cross the street to avoid the new grills from Toyota/Lexus/Acura. On a related note, the new ford gt has to rank ...
by Chan_va
Tue Feb 03, 2015 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard survey: what should they do differently?
Replies: 72
Views: 4596

Re: Vanguard survey: what should they do differently?

1. Take a more active stance on corporate governance - Vanguard is a huge shareholder in many companies, need to use that clout better 2. Disclose exec pay 3. Invest more in IT 4. A rewards program where I earn points for buying vanguard funds and can redeem for kitschy stuff like a multi purpose Va...
by Chan_va
Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help Analyze a 3 Fund Portolfio for friend
Replies: 7
Views: 755

Re: Help Analyze a 3 Fund Portolfio for friend

The 4 fund portfolio works better

40% TSM
10% Total International
40% California Intermediate Term Tax Exempt
10% VRI (The Vintage Rolex Index)
by Chan_va
Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's wrong with volatility if buy&hold
Replies: 52
Views: 3854

Re: What's wrong with volatility if buy&hold

Here is the rub about volatility. We all invest in the belief that the markets show short range disorder (volatility), but long range order (stuff goes up). That has held true so far. But what if this long range behavior is but a pimple of order on the face of ugly "very-long range" volati...
by Chan_va
Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:47 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best watch for around $5,000?
Replies: 942
Views: 192119

Re: What experts say about $5,000 watches

This thread is mythical. Specifically a hellish nexus of the Sirens and Sisyphus myths. We are all doomed to be drawn irresistibly to the rocky shores of this thread and to pointlessly roll the rock of our opinions uphill till the end of time. With that out of the way... We all perform a cost benefi...
by Chan_va
Tue Jan 20, 2015 5:12 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best watch for around $5,000?
Replies: 942
Views: 192119

Re: Best watch for around $5,000?

Tangentially... how the heck do you pronounce "Datejust?" It's almost as hard as "Wealthfront." Do you pronounce it clearly and with good diction? Do you settle for "Dayjust?" Do you give it a little bit of an Italian accent, "Date-a-just?" And why Date just ...
by Chan_va
Fri Jan 02, 2015 3:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bunn trifecta (coffee maker)
Replies: 8
Views: 952

Re: Bunn trifecta (coffee maker)

This one might be sufficient for your needs. https://homecatalog.bunn.com/product/Home-Catalog-US/BREWERS/SINGLE-CUP/Single-Cup-My-Caf-MCU-Coffee-or-tea-the-way-you-love-it-One-cup-at-a-time-42900-0301 Interesting - thanks for posting. But at the end of the day, this one is a drip coffee maker - an...
by Chan_va
Fri Jan 02, 2015 3:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bunn trifecta (coffee maker)
Replies: 8
Views: 952

Re: Bunn trifecta (coffee maker)

After years of experimenting with everything from chemex to the aeropress and evertything in between, I have got to the point where I just want to sit back and have a machine make me a consistently great cup of coffee. Came across the bunn trifecta. http://www.amazon.com/Bunn-O-Matic-Bunn-Trifecta-...
by Chan_va
Fri Jan 02, 2015 10:42 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bunn trifecta (coffee maker)
Replies: 8
Views: 952

Bunn trifecta (coffee maker)

After years of experimenting with everything from chemex to the aeropress and evertything in between, I have got to the point where I just want to sit back and have a machine make me a consistently great cup of coffee. Came across the bunn trifecta. http://www.amazon.com/Bunn-O-Matic-Bunn-Trifecta-M...
by Chan_va
Sun Dec 28, 2014 6:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best watch for around $5,000?
Replies: 942
Views: 192119

Re: Best watch for around $5,000?

Most watch aficionados will agree that the finish and quality of a grand seiko is on par with a Rolex or better. It's really a subjective call. I like the rarity and look of it, and the quality of the movement is higher (one of the very few automatics to beat at 10 times a second). I am not a watch...
by Chan_va
Sun Dec 28, 2014 6:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best watch for around $5,000?
Replies: 942
Views: 192119

Re: Best watch for around $5,000?

Petrocelli, Your post was the final push I needed to pull the trigger on a watch I have been lusting after for years. Placed the order today. The Grand Seiko Hi-Beat for roughly $5K. That's a beautiful watch. I am curious why you wouldn't spend a little more and get a Rolex. Why did you choose the ...
by Chan_va
Sun Dec 28, 2014 3:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best watch for around $5,000?
Replies: 942
Views: 192119

Re: Best watch for around $5,000?

Petrocelli, Your post was the final push I needed to pull the trigger on a watch I have been lusting after for years. Placed the order today. The Grand Seiko Hi-Beat for roughly $5K. I am curious why you wouldn't spend a little more and get a Rolex. Why did you choose the Seiko? Both are fantastic ...
by Chan_va
Sun Dec 28, 2014 2:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 849
Views: 119267

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Watched 'The Gambler'. May have been the worst movie I have ever watched. I would try and summarize it for you but the trauma of recalling the experience would be too great.
by Chan_va
Sun Dec 28, 2014 11:14 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best watch for around $5,000?
Replies: 942
Views: 192119

Re: Best watch for around $5,000?

Petrocelli,

Your post was the final push I needed to pull the trigger on a watch I have been lusting after for years. Placed the order today. The Grand Seiko Hi-Beat for roughly $5K.

Image
by Chan_va
Fri Dec 26, 2014 4:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best watch for around $5,000?
Replies: 942
Views: 192119

Re: I think I just got a $5,000 watch for Christmas

Who officially certifies that it's a "Superlative Chronometer" by the way? That's an awesome phrase. The 'chronometer' designation is given to a movement if it passes a set of tests administered by COSC, which is the official swiss watch testing institute. Rolex tacks on the words 'superl...
by Chan_va
Thu Nov 27, 2014 8:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best way to pay my parents back
Replies: 7
Views: 1273

Re: Best way to pay my parents back

You should at least inflation adjust the amount you give back.
by Chan_va
Wed Nov 26, 2014 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds
Replies: 48
Views: 4763

Re: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds

I don't know what the right answer is, and maybe there isn't one, but here is another way to skin the cat. Consider this thought experiment. Assume I have been buying $10,000 worth of EE bonds every year since 1996. (For simplicity, assume that they all have a fixed rate of 0% and double after 20 ye...
by Chan_va
Wed Nov 26, 2014 7:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rates - Is the 4% rule still good?
Replies: 84
Views: 8504

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rates - Is the 4% rule still good?

To the OP: I believe the 4% SWR rule is dead for those planning for a 40-year retirement. I am 49 and planning on 2.5% SWR. 2.5% over 40 years would work even with a 0% real return. I think that's overly conservative. Remember that the 4 most dangerous words are 'this time it's different'. People a...
by Chan_va
Tue Nov 25, 2014 4:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Favorite nonfiction books
Replies: 117
Views: 11137

Re: Favorite nonfiction books

If you are interested in travel memoirs, modern history, or just enjoy being immersed in a foreign land, you must read Ryszard Kapuściński. His writing is simply sublime.
by Chan_va
Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Eliminating my TIPS fund~alternatives?
Replies: 12
Views: 1394

Re: Eliminating my tip fund~alternatives?

If there are others out there who would be willing to look at my follow-up question, crazy or not, as to splitting Tips, S-T with Intermediate-Term~50/50, I would appreciate your take. :o Thanks, Bill I'm willing. I've read on other posts that investing in two nominal bond funds 50/50 as you mentio...
by Chan_va
Fri Nov 21, 2014 1:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Proposed Lifetime Retirement Investment Approach
Replies: 28
Views: 2997

Re: Proposed Lifetime Retirement Investment Approach

Money is fungible. If you have $100 in equities, and add $10 in bonds in new money, it is the same as shifting $10 from the $100 from equities to bonds, and adding $10 in equities (in tax deferred/free accounts). What you are proposing is a pretty standard glide path - maybe a bit more aggressive th...
by Chan_va
Mon Nov 17, 2014 6:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Not to Retire
Replies: 67
Views: 9920

Re: How Not to Retire

Me thinks a little perspective is in order for this gentleman. I grew up in the middle of grinding 3rd world poverty. He travelled through Europe for decades. He now has a roof over his head. A guaranteed income stream. Guaranteed healthcare. Decent clothes. A laptop. A cellphone. He can afford to b...
by Chan_va
Fri Nov 14, 2014 1:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Not qualified for my job - what to do?
Replies: 42
Views: 5733

Re: Not qualified for my job - what to do?

Most stuff can be learned. As a manager I am looking for common sense and initiative. It is likely that the new GM is as clueless as you are. Take this opportunity to create a plan and show initiative. Part of your plan should be to keep that consultant on for longer. If you provide some details on ...

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