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Re: Your personal risk level: Got your flu shot yet?

I am a giant wuss when it comes to needles. But now that they have a nasal spray version, I have no excuse. That spray version is for children. Doubt if you could find any provider that would administer it to you. You aren't a 10 year old, are you? :P :P :P I dont think so. From the CDC Who can be ...
by Chan_va
Thu Oct 16, 2014 1:48 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Your personal risk level: Got your flu shot yet?
Replies: 93
Views: 2949

Re: Dry Powder

Isn't that what bonds and rebalancing were designed for? I don't get it
by Chan_va
Thu Oct 16, 2014 10:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dry Powder
Replies: 49
Views: 3492

Re: Which HDHP Plan to choose?

I would go with Option 2. The premium difference is about $1000/yr, but the employer makes up $800 of it by contributing to the HSA. So, for $200/yr, you are reducing your out of pocket max and deductible by over $2000. I view that as a reasonable insurance premium in case of unexpected medical expe...
by Chan_va
Thu Oct 16, 2014 10:20 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which HDHP Plan to choose?
Replies: 7
Views: 430

Re: Your personal risk level: Got your flu shot yet?

I am a giant wuss when it comes to needles. But now that they have a nasal spray version, I have no excuse.
by Chan_va
Thu Oct 16, 2014 10:12 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Your personal risk level: Got your flu shot yet?
Replies: 93
Views: 2949

Re: International index investing

The nature of a diversified portfolio is that something is always lagging something else in the portfolio. We can't all be above average. Remember the tear that emerging markets went on from 2002-2007? You wouldn't want to miss out on something like that would you? Besides, you are not just buying S...
by Chan_va
Wed Oct 15, 2014 11:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International index investing
Replies: 4
Views: 564

Re: At What Cost?

Yes, that is the case, at least at Vanguard. 4PM is the cutoff for receiving that days closing price.
by Chan_va
Wed Oct 15, 2014 10:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: At What Cost?
Replies: 4
Views: 484

Re: Relatively new here. What did you do in 2008/09

I too was a deer in the headlights, and didn't do anything. What I realized is that during typical market corrections, there is fear. But there is a zone beyond fear, and that is numbness.
by Chan_va
Wed Oct 15, 2014 9:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Relatively new here. What did you do in 2008/09
Replies: 106
Views: 6709

Re: Advice on starting "new"

Jerseydoc, welcome. I would start here - http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Getting_started. You can also call Vanguard, and they will walk you through the process, and handle a lot of the paperwork to transfer things over. One of the first things you should do is decide on an asset allocation that you ...
by Chan_va
Wed Oct 15, 2014 9:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice on starting "new"
Replies: 5
Views: 618

Re: When people put all their eggs in the wrong basket

I like thought experiments. In my earlier message cited here, I looked for possible explanations of why one would put all money into a single stock. It's easy to claim that some people are just stupid and leave the topic. I wanted to find a plausible explanation apart from stupidity. Victoria I thi...
by Chan_va
Wed Oct 15, 2014 11:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When people put all their eggs in the wrong basket
Replies: 215
Views: 20178

Re: Bought a house, now time to think about retirement (help

Step 1 - calm down. Step 2 - repeat step 1. You are young and make almost 5x the median hh income, and have a positive net worth. Step 3. Estimate your expenses with the new mortgage, childcare costs etc. Step 4. If your total savings are in the 15% of pre tax income range, you are ok. You can alway...
by Chan_va
Sun Oct 12, 2014 9:16 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bought a house, now time to think about retirement (help)
Replies: 27
Views: 1887

Re: *Best town I've never heard of

Charlottesville va.
by Chan_va
Sat Oct 11, 2014 11:40 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best town I've never heard of [for relocating]
Replies: 97
Views: 9606

Re: Financial health check-up

If I am doing the math right, you have a positive net worth of 200K, with a stable job and pension possibilities. You are doing fine for your age. Keep the savings up. On the condo front - what are you netting from renting it out? Calculate your Cap Rate . Unless that is good, you are making a conce...
by Chan_va
Wed Oct 08, 2014 10:36 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial health check-up
Replies: 12
Views: 775

Re: When people put all their eggs in the wrong basket

Those types of forums tend to support groupthink. It's very common with ..... Anyone who doubts the .... is shouted down and is routinely accused of having ulterior motives in order to...... " The same could be said (to a lesser extent) about this forum. Good reminder to keep an open mind abou...
by Chan_va
Wed Oct 08, 2014 10:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When people put all their eggs in the wrong basket
Replies: 215
Views: 20178

Re: Financial crises are inevitable

Read this classic - Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises Crashes have been around since the dawn of time. The classic boglehead re balancing strategy has worked well in the past. I don't think any downside limiting strategy apart from the standard - "get more conservative ...
by Chan_va
Tue Oct 07, 2014 10:07 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial crises are inevitable
Replies: 3
Views: 394

Re: does the underlying index matter?

Roll into the TSP. Indexes are close enough, it doesn't matter.
by Chan_va
Tue Oct 07, 2014 9:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: does the underlying index matter?
Replies: 3
Views: 296

Re: Wife Expecting, Down to One Income Source

Congrats! One income is definitely doable.

Remember that babies need very little "stuff". Get the minimum - car seat is pretty much the only "must have".
by Chan_va
Tue Oct 07, 2014 9:49 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wife Expecting, Down to One Income Source
Replies: 116
Views: 8015

Re: GDP, CPI - What to do if they aren't accurate?

It has been emperically proven that CPI tracks real inflation very closely. But, If you are convinced that real inflation will be more than CPI, you can 1. Take out a big fixed 30 yr mortgage 2. invest 100% in equities 3. take a short position on TIPS believing that the market has mispriced it If yo...
by Chan_va
Fri Oct 03, 2014 4:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GDP, CPI - What to do if they aren't accurate?
Replies: 8
Views: 401

Re: Stock Dividend Yields & Share Buybacks — A Surprise

What's the equivalent here? What I said above: if there were systematic mispricings around either dividends or buybacks, we'd see relevant fund strategies succeed wildly. But we don't, so the chaos is smooth overall. And unlike physics, if we did see such funds their very success would eventually d...
by Chan_va
Fri Oct 03, 2014 4:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Dividend Yields & Share Buybacks — A Surprise
Replies: 70
Views: 4345

Re: Steps to TLH from a Vanguard Mutual Fund Account

I have to disagree a little bit with Chan_va. A wash sale is not illegal and is easy to report on one's tax return. Sometimes it is much more important and money saving to TLH even if one had an automatic purchase or dividend reinvestment recently. Plus if those shares have identified losses, then ...
by Chan_va
Fri Oct 03, 2014 3:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Steps to TLH from a Vanguard Mutual Fund Account
Replies: 24
Views: 1174

Re: Steps to TLH from a Vanguard Mutual Fund Account

Make sure there are no other transactions (dividend reinvestment, automatic purchases etc.) for 31 days before and after the TLH date to prevent a wash sale.
by Chan_va
Fri Oct 03, 2014 3:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Steps to TLH from a Vanguard Mutual Fund Account
Replies: 24
Views: 1174

Re: Stock Dividend Yields & Share Buybacks — A Surprise

For every mathematical model of some phenomena, we can ask 1) Does the model accurately predict the behavior of a subset of the entire system? 2) Can the model predict the behavior of a collection of subsystems? #1 does not necessarily imply #2. Take the classic 3 body problem in physics. Even if yo...
by Chan_va
Fri Oct 03, 2014 3:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Dividend Yields & Share Buybacks — A Surprise
Replies: 70
Views: 4345

Re: Understanding the 2008 financial crisis

Just like stocks, it was a case of investors making buying decisions at the worst possible times. If you look at the price vs. volume chart of TLT (one of the largest long treasury ETF's), you will see that the volume was the lightest at the peak of the market (when TLT was the cheapest), and heavie...
by Chan_va
Thu Oct 02, 2014 3:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding the 2008 financial crisis
Replies: 3
Views: 355

Re: S&P 500 Price chart by all-time highs

When looking at this time frame, you should look at inflation adjusted log charts. Then it becomes clear that we didn't really recover from the great depression till 1960, and what look like flat plateau's in the 60's and 70's were actually pretty severe downturns. http://img-fotki.yandex.ru/get/441...
by Chan_va
Thu Oct 02, 2014 3:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Price chart by closing milestones
Replies: 8
Views: 758

Re: Would you buy a house in cash if you had enough?

What you should keep in mind is that a fixed 30 year mortgage is one of the best inflation hedges there is. The advantage of paying off a mortgage is to eliminate risk. But there is a better way to do that. Let's say the 30 year rate is 4% today. Let's say that your effective after tax mortgage rate...
by Chan_va
Thu Oct 02, 2014 3:02 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you buy a house in cash if you had enough?
Replies: 59
Views: 4330

Re: a look at technical indicators

From the article One problem with technical market indicators is there is no risk story to explain why they should work. If ever they did work, it would be a result of behavioral errors among investors. Ahem..pot..kettle..black.. Couldn't the exact same thing be said about the small, value and momen...
by Chan_va
Fri Sep 26, 2014 3:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a look at technical indicators
Replies: 19
Views: 1736

Re: Trying to understand Uber and similar "ride sharing" ser

One way to look at the impact Uber and Lyft are having on the traditional taxi industry is to look at the stock TAXI. TAXI is Medallion Finance Corp - the specialty lender that finances the purchases of New York Taxi Medallions. Over the past 20 years, NYC taxi medallions have been one of the best i...
by Chan_va
Fri Sep 26, 2014 3:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Trying to understand Uber and similar "ride sharing" service
Replies: 54
Views: 3706

Re: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday

I think this qualifies as "Increasingly erratic behavior" Bill Gross's April Investor newsletter was essentially an ode to his dead cat. http://www.pimco.com/en/insights/pages/bob.aspx The departure was clearly not planned. Bill Gross is still plastered prominently all over PIMCO's website.
by Chan_va
Fri Sep 26, 2014 1:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday
Replies: 113
Views: 10000

Re: Should I currency hedge, and, if so, how?

The typical way to do this would be forward contracts. But that's impractical for 17K. Another option is to use ETF's like ERO, which track the USD EUR exchange rate. So, here is how you would do it in theory. On Jan 1, short $17K worth of ERO. As payments come in throughout the year, gradually clos...
by Chan_va
Fri Sep 26, 2014 1:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I currency hedge, and, if so, how?
Replies: 4
Views: 262

Re: Hamilton watches, worth the money?

Expect about +-5 to 10 seconds per day. That's pretty good. What's more important than accuracy is consistency. You should see roughly the same gain loss every day. If you don't then you need to have it looked at.
by Chan_va
Fri Sep 26, 2014 9:34 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hamilton watches, worth the money?
Replies: 262
Views: 12985

Re: 1 year from Retirement, Help with simplifying investment

1. To transition to a “lazy portfolio” I see my options as: a) Total Retirement Fund (2015 or 2020),b) Balanced Index Fund, or c) LifeStrategy Fund, and can’t see much difference in these; or a roll your own 2 fund or 3 fund portfolio. Recommendation? Are there better scenarios? Help, please? From ...
by Chan_va
Thu Sep 25, 2014 10:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 1 year from Retirement, Help with simplifying investments
Replies: 7
Views: 888

Re: Hamilton watches, worth the money?

yeah, fit is something to get used to and as the weather gets colder here I am sure the wrist will not expand as much during the day. The watch works well, and hopefully it will continue working. I don't notice it being fast or slow so far, keeps time well, of course one seconds this or that way wo...
by Chan_va
Wed Sep 24, 2014 9:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hamilton watches, worth the money?
Replies: 262
Views: 12985

Re: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?

Here is some data for probability of loss (in inflation adjusted terms) for 5 countries across 3 time periods - 1 year, 5 year and 10 year. As you can see, at least till the 10 year mark, there is no observable drop off in the probability of loss compared to shorter time periods. http://i.imgur.com/...
by Chan_va
Wed Sep 24, 2014 5:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?
Replies: 51
Views: 2694

Re: Stubbornly Non-Boglehead Husband. What To Do?

Focus on what you can best control, which is the asset allocation of your 50% of the pot, so that your overall portfolio risk is somewhat sane. Option 1: Be ultra conservative with your portion. 100% short term treasuries or CD's. Option 2: Find out what positions he has taken in his portfolio, and ...
by Chan_va
Wed Sep 24, 2014 4:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stubbornly Non-Boglehead Husband. What To Do?
Replies: 122
Views: 7803

Re: What did you always wish for but never got?

When I was growing up, there was this brand of bubble gum that had a number on the inside of the wrapper. If you collected numbers 1-30, you won a prize. I don't even remember what the prize was. But I desperately wanted all the numbers. As did all my friends. We all had 1-30 except for number 26. (...
by Chan_va
Wed Sep 24, 2014 4:07 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What did you always wish for but never got?
Replies: 87
Views: 5281

Re: Does the McClellan Oscillator hold any merit?

At a very high level, the McClellan Oscillator is a momentum indicator. It is reasonably well accepted nowadays that momentum has an impact on returns (the 4 factor model). Just like equal weighted indexes have performed better than cap weighted indexes for certain time periods due to the small cap ...
by Chan_va
Wed Sep 24, 2014 3:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the McClellan Oscillator hold any merit?
Replies: 15
Views: 1090

Re: What's your one big takeaway from the Crash of 2008?

snowman9000 wrote:I didn't check to see if these have been posted. More than one, but they are all big IMO.
1) Most conventional BH assets were strongly correlated, down.
.


Not true. Total Bond did just fine and behaved pretty much as expected in the recession compared to stocks.

See here
by Chan_va
Wed Sep 24, 2014 10:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your one big takeaway from the Crash of 2008?
Replies: 310
Views: 45144

Re: Dilemma: manual buy & lower cost vs auto plan & higher c

Why do you need to sell ETF A at all? Just leave it as is, and redirect all new money and dividends to ETF B. I thought about that. It is an option. But I would definitely prefer consolidating all my holdings in 1 fund, at 1 place. If the tax rules in your country on tax loss harvesting are similar...
by Chan_va
Tue Sep 23, 2014 10:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dilemma: manual buy & lower cost vs auto plan & higher cost
Replies: 6
Views: 376

Re: Dilemma: manual buy & lower cost vs auto plan & higher c

Why do you need to sell ETF A at all? Just leave it as is, and redirect all new money and dividends to ETF B.
by Chan_va
Tue Sep 23, 2014 9:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dilemma: manual buy & lower cost vs auto plan & higher cost
Replies: 6
Views: 376

Re: Southwest Airlines Engulfing, Reversal Candle Signals Do

It's like expecting stock prices to follow the digits of pi or something like that. Careful nisi. Pi tends to show up in the damnest of places. Here is one that you might enjoy and actually may have something to do with the stock market if you believe in the fractal theory of the markets. You know ...
by Chan_va
Mon Sep 22, 2014 8:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Southwest Airlines Engulfing, Reversal Candle Signals Downsi
Replies: 55
Views: 3454

Re: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?

It stands to reason equity risk decreases over time. The longer you're in the market, the more likely you are to get a higher expected annual return. If you're in a year, you could always endure a temporary setback. It doesn't stand to reason at all. The reason equities have a higher expected retur...
by Chan_va
Mon Sep 22, 2014 4:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?
Replies: 51
Views: 2694

Re: Planning a self pension/annuity. Mid 30s.

Given the current rates, I never thought of I-bonds for anything other than my emergency fund. You make a good point though. Wouldn't it make more sense however, given current interest rates and the fact that I won't be touching this money for the next 20 years, to first max out EE-bonds and then p...
by Chan_va
Mon Sep 22, 2014 3:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Planning a self pension/annuity. Mid 30s.
Replies: 13
Views: 1164

Re: money's worth ratio (MWR) of life annuities

Thanks for the links Bobcat, I have wondered why insurance companies sell SPIA's at all - the margins seem too low to justify the product on it's own. There must be layers upon layers of risk hedging and arbitraging to get returns above the risk free rate with the initial payment. Money’s worth rati...
by Chan_va
Mon Sep 22, 2014 12:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are SPIA's fairly priced? - A quick and dirty analysis
Replies: 75
Views: 3641

Re: Planning a self pension/annuity. Mid 30s.

Decent strategy. How large is the yearly floor of expenses you are trying to annuiatize? I would use I-bonds first instead of EE bonds to protect against inflation. That will give you an inflation indexed payment of 20k/yr from I-bonds (10k each for you and wife). It also gives you the flexibility t...
by Chan_va
Mon Sep 22, 2014 11:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Planning a self pension/annuity. Mid 30s.
Replies: 13
Views: 1164

Re: Anyone know anything about diamond rings?

What is your gf's opinion on diamonds? My wife wanted me to just skip the engagement ring or get one made of cubic zircona, but I caved into societal pressure and bought a diamond ring. She rarely wears it, and in retrospect, I should have just spent a couple of hundred bucks on a cubic zircona ring...
by Chan_va
Mon Sep 22, 2014 10:58 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone know anything about diamond rings?
Replies: 49
Views: 1947

Re: Are SPIA's fairly priced? - A quick and dirty analysis

I tried to work through this problem a few years back in this thread . Along the way, I came across this 1999 research paper by Mitchell, et al. that took a crack at the problem and here's what they found: This paper presents new evidence on the expected discounted value of payments for annuity pol...
by Chan_va
Sun Sep 21, 2014 7:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are SPIA's fairly priced? - A quick and dirty analysis
Replies: 75
Views: 3641

Re: Are SPIA's fairly priced? - A quick and dirty analysis

To me the boundary between thinking of buying an annuity as a break-even investment exercise versus as paying a company to accept our longevity risk is the difference between financial sophistication and the lack of it. I think perhaps you've misunderstood the OP's intent. As framed in the initial ...
by Chan_va
Sun Sep 21, 2014 7:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are SPIA's fairly priced? - A quick and dirty analysis
Replies: 75
Views: 3641

Re: Are SPIA's fairly priced? - A quick and dirty analysis

The OP analysis did not include adverse selection. The self-selected SPIA buyer lives longer than average. And modern genetic analysis is making the adverse selection problem worse. The margins are probably thin in the SPIA business, there is lots of competition and it's a commodity. The life expec...
by Chan_va
Sun Sep 21, 2014 7:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are SPIA's fairly priced? - A quick and dirty analysis
Replies: 75
Views: 3641

Re: Do I Really Need a Million Bucks?

Here are some stats from the Social Security Administration The average retiree monthly benefit is $1,294. Social Security benefits represent about 38% of the income of the elderly. So if you do the math, the average retiree's monthly income needs are $3,405, of which $1.294 comes from SS and $2,111...
by Chan_va
Sat Sep 20, 2014 6:56 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do I Really Need a Million Bucks?
Replies: 50
Views: 3693

Re: Are SPIA's fairly priced? - A quick and dirty analysis

I tend to agree with Prof Emeritus' sources that annuitizing is a beneficial concept but nonetheless, I would really like to know what the Insurance Company's cut on a typical SPIA is. Stated more simply: If an actuarily perfect SPIA for a certain set of conditions yields $1000 a month for life, wh...
by Chan_va
Fri Sep 19, 2014 2:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are SPIA's fairly priced? - A quick and dirty analysis
Replies: 75
Views: 3641

Re: Are SPIA's fairly priced? - A quick and dirty analysis

Swaption- good point. Let me try and model that. Dhogson - agreed that self insurance is always cheapest. I was just trying to see how bad a deal SPIA's are. They don't seem to be all that bad. Swampy - that may be true of other types of annuities, but SPIA's seem reasonably priced. I don't think in...
by Chan_va
Fri Sep 19, 2014 2:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are SPIA's fairly priced? - A quick and dirty analysis
Replies: 75
Views: 3641
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