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Re: Seeking wisdom and guidance

The advice you've gotten so far is very good, but I don't think it would do any harm to put a percent or so into blackface Fenders.
by Cb
Mon Sep 01, 2014 4:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking wisdom and guidance
Replies: 10
Views: 1064

Re: Really confused by Bernstein

I'm pretty sure Dr. Bernstein said several years ago that he'd changed his mind about the ability of well-informed investors to manage their own portfolios adequately. I think watching investor behavior during the more recent downturn has made him even less hopeful about the prospects for DIY'ers, t...
by Cb
Mon Mar 24, 2014 10:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Really confused by Bernstein
Replies: 168
Views: 14706

Re: Wade Pfau feautured in latest Money magazine

Wade appears more confidence in how various market sectors will perform in the coming decades than I do.
by Cb
Sun Mar 02, 2014 11:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau feautured in latest Money magazine
Replies: 8
Views: 2478

Re: Bionic Beta! It's a 1970s thing made new with Smart Beta

...a May 1978 issue of Institutional Investor made Rosenberg a cult figure. The cover depicted him sitting in a pink robe on top of a mountain with hands lifted in the air, flowers around his neck and shoulders, and throngs of money manager giving praise to this disciple... Google Images didn't fin...
by Cb
Thu Feb 27, 2014 11:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bionic Beta! It's a 1970s thing made new with Smart Beta
Replies: 2
Views: 584

Re: Best Stereo Headphones under $100

I love the AKG K240 Studio . These have a replaceable cord. The headphones sound great, very flat response, and should last a lifetime. The main thing that's likely to break on well-made headphones is the cord which can be replaced on this model. Some time ago I bought Sennheiser HD280's, and while...
by Cb
Tue Feb 25, 2014 12:36 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best Stereo Headphones under $100
Replies: 33
Views: 1862

Re: Robert Merton-Meeting challenges of funding retirement

Thanks for posting that...gonna watch it later.
by Cb
Fri Feb 21, 2014 10:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Merton-Meeting challenges of funding retirement
Replies: 1
Views: 322

Re: 22 multiple rule

...AFAIK, you can follow the Pied Piper's and math wizards of 4% and higher inflation indexed withdrawals, but do so at your own risk understanding you are making the later golden year's cat food and life under the bridge bet... This sort of thing turns up in most SWR threads. I wonder what % of th...
by Cb
Sun Feb 02, 2014 12:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 22 multiple rule
Replies: 42
Views: 4450

Re: What was your 2013 return?

This era of lower returns I've been reading about the past few years has been brutal.
by Cb
Thu Jan 02, 2014 1:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] What was your 2013 return?
Replies: 209
Views: 9652

Re: Commodities Funds: A Decade of Disaster

I gave up and sold this disastrous asset class a while back, but unfortunately, piled the proceeds into the toxic, hazardous waste asset class instead.
by Cb
Sat Dec 21, 2013 6:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities Funds: A Decade of Disaster
Replies: 196
Views: 14560

Re: When Bogleheads tell you it's different this time

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:
louis c wrote:
I think those who are changing their stock allocation because they don't like current bond yields are making a mistake.


Experience can be a harsh taskmaster.


Indeed.

The past ~18 months haven't been so harsh though. If the market drops ~27% we'll be back to even.
by Cb
Mon Oct 14, 2013 11:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Bogleheads tell you it's different this time
Replies: 48
Views: 4782

Re: When Bogleheads tell you it's different this time

I think we're paying a high price for a dollar of earnings in bond markets these days. After reading Warren Buffett's Feb 2012 piece in Fortune magazine in which he mentioned bonds currently being priced to provide "return-free risk" I abandoned my plan to double our bond allocation upon m...
by Cb
Mon Oct 14, 2013 9:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Bogleheads tell you it's different this time
Replies: 48
Views: 4782

Re: "Optimal Portfolios for the Long Run."

pkcrafter wrote:Ned, funny you were thinking about a golf analogy, so was I. In this way...
In golf you need to keep your balance during the swing, same as in investing.
Paul


I think some Bogleheads just carry a sandwedge and a putter.
by Cb
Sun Oct 06, 2013 2:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Optimal Portfolios for the Long Run."
Replies: 65
Views: 8394

Re: Boxing (for fitness/workout)

Seems like a high-impact method of exercising for a guitar player to consider.
by Cb
Wed Sep 04, 2013 9:42 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Boxing (for fitness/workout)
Replies: 19
Views: 1338

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal

I don't know if there's much interest for all this as nobody is commenting. I'm keeping an eye on this thread. I welcome your work on variable withdrawals. I've previously modeled variable withdrawals using FIREcalc, simulating various degrees of % of remaining portfolio WD schemes by pumping up FI...
by Cb
Mon Aug 05, 2013 2:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 510
Views: 87066

Re: FIRECalc Question

It would be great if there were some way that the baton could be passed to have FIRECalc be carried on into the future once the originator decides that he no longer has the time nor ability to continue with it. The guy who created FIREcalc and found the associated Early Retirement forum ("Dory...
by Cb
Sun May 05, 2013 8:35 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FIRECalc Question
Replies: 15
Views: 2284

Re: 4% rule and dying broke

I hate to be the bearer of sad tidings, but at today's super low real interest rates the 4% rule will have a very high failure rate. The studies of SWR's that have looked at past historical periods don't include extended periods where real LT interest rates are negative, as they are today. :( :( Bo...
by Cb
Sat May 04, 2013 10:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 4% rule and dying broke
Replies: 62
Views: 6211

Re: Do we have enough to retire?

In view of their work backgrounds, if the market were to crater in the early years of their retirement they might still be able to find some sort of work, like delivering pizzas or mowing lawns to address any shortfall that might appear.

Cb :|
by Cb
Fri Mar 15, 2013 11:56 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do we have enough to retire?
Replies: 106
Views: 13375

Re: International Explorer vs the index fund

Makes sense to me. I expect that Vanguard will lower the ER and reduce or eliminate the in & out fees at some point, but until then International Explorer looks like the better choice to me.
by Cb
Mon Feb 04, 2013 5:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Explorer vs the index fund
Replies: 10
Views: 692

Re: Achieving a Higher Safe Withdrawal Rate

.... The issue is: 1) what is the most comfortable system for adjusting withdrawals? 2) If you're going to make flexible adjustments, what's the evidence that any set of numerical rules is going to work any better than Taylor Larimore's system : "We simply withdrew what we needed and kept an e...
by Cb
Tue Jan 08, 2013 11:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Achieving a Higher Safe Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 109
Views: 8001

Re: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

1530.33
by Cb
Fri Jan 04, 2013 1:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2013 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
Replies: 481
Views: 15528

Re: Jeremy Grantham July Letter

30 years ago my grandmother fell under the spell of a succession of newsletter writers, each more pessimistic/paranoid than the last. It drove my father bonkers back then. For the past decade my father has done the same thing. In the event that there is a dominant gene at play here, I'm going to mak...
by Cb
Tue Aug 07, 2012 12:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jeremy Grantham July Letter
Replies: 4
Views: 856

Re: Why does my bond allocation need to be so high?

I think people's tolerance for risk varies MUCH more than you'd guess by reading this board. Some people are comfortable deriving their income from a small business, while others wouldn't dream of leaving a corporate gig to do that. Similarly, some people are comfortable scuba diving, flying private...
by Cb
Wed Aug 01, 2012 4:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why does my bond allocation need to be so high?
Replies: 33
Views: 3179

Re: Wiki: Asset Allocation - Update "Age in Bonds"?

...I'm certainly not opposed to including it if that is what Jack actually means all the time - rather than a comment that might have applied to a situation or a comment about a way to do things as opposed to the way to do things. I'm just not convinced yet, but I'll keep an open mind. I'm not at a...
by Cb
Sun Jul 22, 2012 12:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wiki: Asset Allocation - Update "Age in Bonds"?
Replies: 99
Views: 16871

Re: Wiki: Asset Allocation - Update "Age in Bonds"?

I agree with Starboard...to intentionally omit a (rather significant) portion of Mr. Bogle's comments is a misrepresentation of his stated views.
by Cb
Sat Jul 21, 2012 5:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wiki: Asset Allocation - Update "Age in Bonds"?
Replies: 99
Views: 16871

Re: Verizon or other prepaid cell phone service?

I just bought a Tracfone. Mine uses AT&Ts network but they have phones that use Verizon. Here is a site that will tell you how to figure out what phone to get based on which network you want to use. http://www.prepaidphonenews.com/2011/12/how-to-get-tracfone-net10-or-straight.html You might be ...
by Cb
Sun Jul 15, 2012 4:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Verizon or other prepaid cell phone service?
Replies: 22
Views: 2985

Verizon or other prepaid cell phone service?

We've used Verizon cell service for a single user for several years now and haven't had any complaints. Upon her retirement my wife had to surrender her company-paid Blackberry. We're looking over our expenses and have decided to let go of our land-line phone and get a second cell phone. We're out-o...
by Cb
Sun Jul 15, 2012 12:23 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Verizon or other prepaid cell phone service?
Replies: 22
Views: 2985

Re: The riskiest day of the rest of your life

To say that one has exhausted their human capital upon retirement is an exaggeration in most cases.

Cb
by Cb
Tue Jun 26, 2012 10:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The riskiest day of the rest of your life
Replies: 50
Views: 6315

Re: Small value performance

Beagler wrote:
yobria wrote:Then what point is Dr. Bernstein wrong about here?:


Will you concede that in the hard light of day, Dr. Bernstein still tilts his portfolios to small and value, even today (as has fairly recently been communicated through Mel)?


I think he's already found a quote he likes.
by Cb
Wed Jun 06, 2012 4:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small value performance
Replies: 131
Views: 8117

Re: Can a person have no risk tolerance?

I found Warren Buffet's recent thoughts on equities vs bonds to be compelling:

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/02/09/warren-buffett-berkshire-shareholder-letter/

Cb
by Cb
Thu Apr 12, 2012 11:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can a person have no risk tolerance?
Replies: 63
Views: 2510

Re: Future of Social Security: Boglehead View?

You're already 54, and I think the likelihood of the government addressing SS funding challenges within the next 12 months is about zero. Once you make 55 I think you can count on 100% of the SS projections, but it'd probably be reasonable for a middle-class couple to lop off a couple percent becaus...
by Cb
Sun Jan 29, 2012 5:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Future of Social Security: Boglehead View?
Replies: 60
Views: 3543

Re: Can Adele Sing?

I'd give up my Boglehead's book and maybe two Rick Ferri's to play in a band with a woman who could sing like Adele. She's a one in a million performer, IMO.

Some of y'all are kRaZIe.

Cb :annoyed
by Cb
Thu Jan 12, 2012 3:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Can Adele Sing?
Replies: 56
Views: 4005

Re: Knee replacement surgery

...Thanks again to everyone who replied. I would welcome more information. I'm 52 and get Synvisc injections every 6 months trying to delay TKR until I'm 60 or so. I found this series of Youtubes fascinating - these are the lectures from a UC-Berkely graduate bio-engineering course on the design &a...
by Cb
Sat Dec 17, 2011 10:45 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Knee replacement surgery
Replies: 52
Views: 4181

Re: What musical instrument do you play

Downright bass in 2 bands, electric guitar in another. I'm on bass in this one:
[url]
http://youtu.be/vYkP6nXu6Mk[/url]

Cb 8-)
by Cb
Thu Dec 15, 2011 10:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What musical instrument do you play
Replies: 33
Views: 1198

A number of years ago as I was preparing to retire at 46 my little sister emailed me link to an article on the potential for runaway healthcare costs in the future laying waste to retirement plans, and asked if I was frightened about a scenario like that. I replied saying that if things really went ...
by Cb
Wed Aug 24, 2011 10:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Test your feelings about "safe withdrawal" failure
Replies: 34
Views: 3518

Costco's Kirkland Tee's for me, baby! They're long, medium weight, tagless, hold up well, and even come in gray and black for formal occasions.

Cb
by Cb
Thu May 26, 2011 4:13 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: undershirts
Replies: 40
Views: 4512

Nope, both times it was one of those "caught up in the moment" sort of things when my mind wasn't on finance.

Cb :P
by Cb
Wed May 18, 2011 2:31 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Did you consider the financial aspects of having children?
Replies: 151
Views: 11604

Houston101 wrote:Simba this is indeed a gem, thank you very much.

Will it be correct to assume that the gains are calculated without taking into account dividends?


No...the returns include dividends, and have fund ER's deducted.
by Cb
Wed Mar 16, 2011 10:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spreadsheet for backtesting (includes TrevH's data)
Replies: 610
Views: 385189

Has anyone found a complete listing of the funds PIMCO has lowered fees on? They're not exactly shouting from the rooftops...

Cb
by Cb
Fri Mar 11, 2011 11:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PIMCO Cuts Management Fees
Replies: 13
Views: 3031

...And you are thinking "Countrywide, WaMu, IndyMac, Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, AIG, Merrill Lynch... WTF? When does it end? Is this, seriously, the Big One?" Right now, people are talking about the possibility of hyperinflation, currency collapse, you name it...
by Cb
Sun Mar 06, 2011 11:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 100% equities really that risky for young investors?
Replies: 127
Views: 14510

I started playing 17-18 years ago as an adult. When I was working I found lessons kind of stressful...I was working 50-60 hr weeks and often was anxious as lesson day approached when I hadn't practiced enough. Eventually I concluded that I'd be happier learning on my own via books & cassette pac...
by Cb
Fri Mar 04, 2011 11:45 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any guitar players here?
Replies: 30
Views: 3095

Fascinating - thanks for the link!
by Cb
Tue Feb 08, 2011 1:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boeing admits outsourcing strategy backfired.
Replies: 4
Views: 1445

A worn-out knee is no pic-a-nic.

If I had it to do over again I'd favor low-impact sports and exercise.

Cb
by Cb
Sat Jan 15, 2011 11:26 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How healthy is running?
Replies: 69
Views: 5868

It takes a few weeks to gather all the final #'s...my guess is Simba will have it updated before the month is out.

Cb
by Cb
Tue Jan 04, 2011 4:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spreadsheet for backtesting (includes TrevH's data)
Replies: 610
Views: 385189

Opponent Process wrote:was it morning or afternoon? she takes a shower between shifts.


Finally, some useful information.
by Cb
Tue Jan 04, 2011 9:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: market direction predicted for 2011
Replies: 21
Views: 1945

1360
by Cb
Sun Jan 02, 2011 12:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2011 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
Replies: 374
Views: 28175

Doesn't performance chart on StockCharts reflect the dividends and CG? Nope. StockCharts, Yahoo, Bigcharts, and all that I'm aware of are price charts and do not reflect returns from dividends, capital gains, and the like. When a distribution is issued, the security price drops by a corresponding a...
by Cb
Sat Dec 11, 2010 11:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PIMCO Total Return down -5.26%
Replies: 47
Views: 12004

I got no beef with any of those guys, except when they take shots at one another. I'm probably closest to the Scott Burns 10 Speed Couch portfolio, with a coupla percent in old guitars and amplifiers just to be safe.

Cb
by Cb
Sun Dec 05, 2010 11:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you a Swedroehead? A Ferrihead? Boglehead?
Replies: 60
Views: 7190
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