Bogleheads.org

It would be great if there were some way that the baton could be passed to have FIRECalc be carried on into the future once the originator decides that he no longer has the time nor ability to continue with it. The guy who created FIREcalc and found the associated Early Retirement forum ("Dory...

I hate to be the bearer of sad tidings, but at today's super low real interest rates the 4% rule will have a very high failure rate. The studies of SWR's that have looked at past historical periods don't include extended periods where real LT interest rates are negative, as they are today. :( :( Bo...

In view of their work backgrounds, if the market were to crater in the early years of their retirement they might still be able to find some sort of work, like delivering pizzas or mowing lawns to address any shortfall that might appear.

Cb

Makes sense to me. I expect that Vanguard will lower the ER and reduce or eliminate the in & out fees at some point, but until then International Explorer looks like the better choice to me.

.... The issue is: 1) what is the most comfortable system for adjusting withdrawals? 2) If you're going to make flexible adjustments, what's the evidence that any set of numerical rules is going to work any better than Taylor Larimore's system : "We simply withdrew what we needed and kept an e...

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30 years ago my grandmother fell under the spell of a succession of newsletter writers, each more pessimistic/paranoid than the last. It drove my father bonkers back then. For the past decade my father has done the same thing. In the event that there is a dominant gene at play here, I'm going to mak...

I think people's tolerance for risk varies MUCH more than you'd guess by reading this board. Some people are comfortable deriving their income from a small business, while others wouldn't dream of leaving a corporate gig to do that. Similarly, some people are comfortable scuba diving, flying private...

...I'm certainly not opposed to including it if that is what Jack actually means all the time - rather than a comment that might have applied to a situation or a comment about a way to do things as opposed to the way to do things. I'm just not convinced yet, but I'll keep an open mind. I'm not at a...

I agree with Starboard...to intentionally omit a (rather significant) portion of Mr. Bogle's comments is a misrepresentation of his stated views.

I just bought a Tracfone. Mine uses AT&Ts network but they have phones that use Verizon. Here is a site that will tell you how to figure out what phone to get based on which network you want to use. http://www.prepaidphonenews.com/2011/12/how-to-get-tracfone-net10-or-straight.html You might be ...

We've used Verizon cell service for a single user for several years now and haven't had any complaints. Upon her retirement my wife had to surrender her company-paid Blackberry. We're looking over our expenses and have decided to let go of our land-line phone and get a second cell phone. We're out-o...

To say that one has exhausted their human capital upon retirement is an exaggeration in most cases.

Cb

Beagler wrote:

yobria wrote:Then what point is Dr. Bernstein wrong about here?:

Will you concede that in the hard light of day, Dr. Bernstein still tilts his portfolios to small and value, even today (as has fairly recently been communicated through Mel)?

I think he's already found a quote he likes.

I found Warren Buffet's recent thoughts on equities vs bonds to be compelling:

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/02/09/warren-buffett-berkshire-shareholder-letter/

Cb

You're already 54, and I think the likelihood of the government addressing SS funding challenges within the next 12 months is about zero. Once you make 55 I think you can count on 100% of the SS projections, but it'd probably be reasonable for a middle-class couple to lop off a couple percent becaus...

I'd give up my Boglehead's book and maybe two Rick Ferri's to play in a band with a woman who could sing like Adele. She's a one in a million performer, IMO.

Some of y'all are kRaZIe.

Cb

1360.00

...Thanks again to everyone who replied. I would welcome more information. I'm 52 and get Synvisc injections every 6 months trying to delay TKR until I'm 60 or so. I found this series of Youtubes fascinating - these are the lectures from a UC-Berkely graduate bio-engineering course on the design &a...

Downright bass in 2 bands, electric guitar in another. I'm on bass in this one:
[url]
http://youtu.be/vYkP6nXu6Mk[/url]

Cb

A number of years ago as I was preparing to retire at 46 my little sister emailed me link to an article on the potential for runaway healthcare costs in the future laying waste to retirement plans, and asked if I was frightened about a scenario like that. I replied saying that if things really went ...

Costco's Kirkland Tee's for me, baby! They're long, medium weight, tagless, hold up well, and even come in gray and black for formal occasions.

Cb

Nope, both times it was one of those "caught up in the moment" sort of things when my mind wasn't on finance.

Cb

Houston101 wrote:Simba this is indeed a gem, thank you very much.

Will it be correct to assume that the gains are calculated without taking into account dividends?

No...the returns include dividends, and have fund ER's deducted.

Has anyone found a complete listing of the funds PIMCO has lowered fees on? They're not exactly shouting from the rooftops...

Cb

...And you are thinking "Countrywide, WaMu, IndyMac, Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, AIG, Merrill Lynch... WTF? When does it end? Is this, seriously, the Big One?" Right now, people are talking about the possibility of hyperinflation, currency collapse, you name it...

I started playing 17-18 years ago as an adult. When I was working I found lessons kind of stressful...I was working 50-60 hr weeks and often was anxious as lesson day approached when I hadn't practiced enough. Eventually I concluded that I'd be happier learning on my own via books & cassette pac...

Fascinating - thanks for the link!

A worn-out knee is no pic-a-nic.

If I had it to do over again I'd favor low-impact sports and exercise.

Cb

It takes a few weeks to gather all the final #'s...my guess is Simba will have it updated before the month is out.

Cb

Opponent Process wrote:was it morning or afternoon? she takes a shower between shifts.

Finally, some useful information.

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Doesn't performance chart on StockCharts reflect the dividends and CG? Nope. StockCharts, Yahoo, Bigcharts, and all that I'm aware of are price charts and do not reflect returns from dividends, capital gains, and the like. When a distribution is issued, the security price drops by a corresponding a...

I got no beef with any of those guys, except when they take shots at one another. I'm probably closest to the Scott Burns 10 Speed Couch portfolio, with a coupla percent in old guitars and amplifiers just to be safe.

Cb

...It's obvious (once I was told it) but not intuitive (to me) that getting your MPG from say 15 to 30, saves us much gas as getting it from 30 to 60 . How much gas would each vehicle (the 15 mpg, 30 mpg, and 60 mpg) use to travel 60 miles? Litres per 100 clicks is an easier measure. If you go from...

Valuethinker wrote:...It's obvious (once I was told it) but not intuitive (to me) that getting your MPG from say 15 to 30, saves us much gas as getting it from 30 to 60.

How much gas would each vehicle (the 15 mpg, 30 mpg, and 60 mpg) use to travel 60 miles?

Sorry, you don't understand FireCalc. It is not about averages at all. It plays your portfolio against starting periods of history. What about the guy that retired in 1929? he didn't pull out any gains, but his portfolio plummeted until 1932. Same result. I think you should consider the possibility...

Bob, how much trouble would it be to extend the durations to 40 years? It looks to me like the very low equity portfolio SWR's are still heading down at a pretty good clip at 30-35 years, while the higher equity portfolios are leveling off.

Cb

Thanks Wade. It's interesting that even the 15 year SWR's were higher for heavier stock allocations.

Cb

What I find most frightening is the amount of retirement money flowing into certain medium-duration bond funds based on their prior performance. This may not end happily. What if that retirement money is intended to be kept in the medium-duration bond fund for a period much longer than its duration...

Tracking one's net worth daily strikes me as pretty nutty behavior.

So I only check mine on up days...

Cb

re@51.5 wrote:I really had to be a PITA...

Can anyone please provide me a bread crumb of a clue on how/where did the data before inception come from?

Mike

One of the tabs in the spreadsheet lists the data sources for each asset class.

I find it interesting that the authors found that the inflation-adjusted withdrawal rate that was sustained with 100% chance of success over 30 years was 2.9% for a 100% stock/0% bond allocation, and was 3.5% and 3.7% for the 50/50 and 75/25 allocations respectively. This is consistent with the fin...

I think of SS & pensions as fixed income.

You betcha - I bailed at 46 with a bit less than that (well, I'm due a decent pension at 60). We're invested at ~80/20, 8 slices... I do pretty much as I please everyday. I'm in two bands, starting a third shortly, I ride motorcycles, golf, read and babysit my grandkids. I'm having nearly as much fu...

adalfu wrote:the links in the original post do not work... does anyone have access to these files?

thanks a plenty.

I just put them back up.

Cb

Looks like it might be a terrific book, based on the TOC.

Cb

nisiprius wrote:How many wheelchair ramps did you include in your retirement spreadsheet?

I guess any wheelchair ramp expenses I incur will begin to eat into my waverunner, motorcycle, and scuba budgets.

Cb

A few thoughts on FIREcalc: If you model very long (>42 year) periods in FIREcalc, you remove the late 60's failures from the results, generating higher 'safe' SWRs. If you want to model flat % of portfolio withdrawal strategies, model a $0 annual draw, but add x.x% to the Portfolio Expense Ratio. T...

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