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Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

Biggest issue for us ordinary DIY Bogleheads is the $5 million minimum investment.
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Nov 23, 2014 4:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 82
Views: 4970

Re: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt

leonard wrote:If you want to take issue with something in his philosophy - go after the whole Merriman market timing methodology.


...which he uses for half of his assets but generally does not recommend for others.
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Nov 23, 2014 11:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt
Replies: 88
Views: 7989

Re: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt

The essence of Paul's argument, as you know, is that Vanguard consistently recommends total market index alone and discourages folks from tilting. Paul believes that does clients a disservice, and he spoke-out about that. I suppose that he could have made his point without invoking DFA, although it ...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Nov 23, 2014 9:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt
Replies: 88
Views: 7989

Re: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt

I think he is disingenuous because I think his beliefs are going beyond the data into practically guaranteeing that value will out perform growth and small over large. This is where we disagree, and where I think you are misinterpreting Paul. He is not "practically guaranteeing" anything,...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Nov 23, 2014 8:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt
Replies: 88
Views: 7989

Re: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt

He is making a big deal about small cap and value and while he says that past performance blah, blah blah, he sure wants us to believe that value everything and small cap will practically guarantee you earn 2% more. I find that disingenuous. I do not. He is stating his beliefs and assumptions. Ther...
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Nov 22, 2014 1:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt
Replies: 88
Views: 7989

Re: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt

I just had a chance to listen to this podcast. I really think people are beating-up on Paul Merriman unfairly. He stated his beliefs honestly - and clearly identified the basis of his beliefs - which is 83 years of historical stock-market performance. He also admitted that he cannot see into the fut...
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Nov 22, 2014 8:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt
Replies: 88
Views: 7989

Re: Small cap value premium

This question of whether small-cap value is or is not an asset class is a matter of definition - meaning you will never agree. Per Wikipedia, which is not necessarily authoritative on the subject, small-cap value would be considered an asset-class category.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asset_classes
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Nov 22, 2014 8:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value premium
Replies: 85
Views: 5450

Re: Small cap value premium

I don't think it is a huge leap to accept that small cap stocks (in aggregate) tend to be riskier than large cap stocks (in aggregate) because of the underlying risks associated with small businesses versus large established businesses. If one doesn't accept this as at least likely to be true, he o...
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Nov 21, 2014 10:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value premium
Replies: 85
Views: 5450

Re: Why Alpha is getting more elusive

Nice article Larry. Do you think this same phenomenon (of improving competition) is likely to reduce factor premiums in the future?
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Nov 21, 2014 9:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Alpha is getting more elusive
Replies: 14
Views: 1844

Re: Small cap value premium

It confounds me that people have trouble accepting that a segment of the market can persistently beat the market (over long time periods). If we accept that some segments are riskier than the market as a whole, and if we accept that risk and expected return are inextricably linked, then it follows ...
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Nov 21, 2014 8:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value premium
Replies: 85
Views: 5450

Re: Ray Dalio's All-Weather Portfolio

The problem with all of these portfolios is they have a lot of government bonds - which experienced a huge run-up over the past 35 years.
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Nov 21, 2014 8:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ray Dalio's All-Weather Portfolio
Replies: 14
Views: 2345

Re: getting umbrella insurance

They will generally want to know your occupation. Some occupations are more likely to get sued than others. I wonder if Doctors might be one of those occupations. Doctors should have malpractice insurance to cover any medical related suits. anecdotally doctors actually get sued for other activities...
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Nov 21, 2014 8:22 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: getting umbrella insurance
Replies: 25
Views: 1466

Re: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt

JoMoney wrote:I find it interesting that being called a fan of DFA is considered derogatory. :D


I guess it is so among the do-it-yourself crowd.
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Nov 21, 2014 8:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt
Replies: 88
Views: 7989

Re: Small cap value premium

It confounds me that people have trouble accepting that a segment of the market can persistently beat the market in aggregate (over long time periods). If we accept that some segments are riskier than the market as a whole, and if we accept that risk and expected return are inextricably linked (alth...
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Nov 21, 2014 8:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value premium
Replies: 85
Views: 5450

Re: Capitalization weighted or Asset weighted?

One purported minus of index funds is that since they are capitalization-weighted, they buy more of the stocks that are popular and have gone up a lot in value. In that sense, they chase winners. This does seem to be a form of running with the crowd. CAll_Me_Op: Running with the crowd or not, capit...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Nov 20, 2014 10:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I Like Index Funds
Replies: 26
Views: 3892

Re: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt

Merriman admits that his views have changed over time - as he has gained more investing experience. I believe he used to be more of a market timer. He freely admits that his approach is based upon past relative performance of asset classes. I don't see him hiding anything or having any ulterior moti...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Nov 20, 2014 9:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt
Replies: 88
Views: 7989

Re: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt

FWIW, I come down firmly on the side of the do-it-yourselfers. I listen to Merriman's podcasts, but when he (or anyone) starts talking about DFA funds, that's when I fast-forward. Whether or not there is a DFA + advisor advantage over Vanguard + DIY, I would always go with DIY at rock-bottom cost.
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Nov 20, 2014 8:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt
Replies: 88
Views: 7989

Re: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt

...if I have historical evidence on one hand and my crystal ball on the other, I will let history be my guide. Does that historical guide ignore the past decade where TSM outperformed DFA's Small-Cap Value, and did so with lower standard deviation and no adviser fees? http://i58.tinypic.com/otoh3d....
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Nov 20, 2014 7:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt
Replies: 88
Views: 7989

Re: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt

I think people are misunderstanding where Paul Merriman is coming from. He simply believes (because it is true) that a total market index fund concentrates you in US large-cap growth stocks. He is not against these, but is swayed by the historical evidence that other asset classes (as he calls them ...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Nov 20, 2014 6:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt
Replies: 88
Views: 7989

Re: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt

Remember, Jack set up Vanguard with the investors as the owners. And he freely advises investors to own the market and hold forever vs trying to outsmart the market, as with DFA and tilting. And, following Jack's advice vs a DFA advisor's (which Paul recommended at the end of his broadcast), there ...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Nov 19, 2014 6:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt
Replies: 88
Views: 7989

Re: Diversification among Bonds?

ogd,

Well said - as usual.
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Nov 19, 2014 1:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification among Bonds?
Replies: 32
Views: 2774

Re: Diversification among Bonds?

nspayne17,

Are you confused yet?
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Nov 19, 2014 7:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification among Bonds?
Replies: 32
Views: 2774

Re: Jack Bogle: expect 7% annualized for the foreseeable fut

But the 7% (or so) will have a huge speculative component - so may be 30% next year, etc.
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Nov 18, 2014 10:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle: expect 7% annualized for the foreseeable future
Replies: 42
Views: 6016

Re: Why I Like Index Funds

One purported minus of index funds is that since they are capitalization-weighted, they buy more of the stocks that are popular and have gone up a lot in value. In that sense, they chase winners. This does seem to be a form of running with the crowd.
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Nov 17, 2014 5:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I Like Index Funds
Replies: 26
Views: 3892

Re: How Not to Retire

Seems to me that his biggest mistake was letting someone else handle his money.
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Nov 17, 2014 9:11 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Not to Retire
Replies: 67
Views: 6887

Re: Joel Greenblatt: Market Cap weighted indexes not recomme

I saw the interview on Consuelo Mack yesterday. He seems like a smart guy, but nothing he said should be new to you if you follow this forum. As Larry points-out, this can all be explained in terms of factor loading.
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Nov 16, 2014 8:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Joel Greenblatt: Market Cap weighted indexes not recommended
Replies: 15
Views: 2315

Re: Should I have even $1 in Bonds?

If your IPS calls for your AA to be 100% stocks, then avoid bonds, correct... IPS for Post-SS portfolio is 70/30 but I am considering changing it to 100/0 and was querying to find out if I was overlooking something. If you feel you really need to do something, why not 85/15? You will be thankful if...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Nov 16, 2014 8:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I have even $1 in Bonds?
Replies: 34
Views: 3953

Re: Vanguard Brokerage or Mutual Funds?

Op, what are you worrying about? I just gave them permission and they did it. I don't see a downside, and I do use their brokerage to buy CD's.
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Nov 16, 2014 8:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Brokerage or Mutual Funds?
Replies: 16
Views: 922

Re: Can active funds reliably beat the index? Actually, Yes

Just quick thought It isn't whether a fund beats a benchmark index but whether or not it's generating alpha. It's easy to beat an index, just overweight factors with premiums. And can also screen out the jackpot stocks which indices can own, especially small and small growth indices. Larry I think ...
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Nov 15, 2014 11:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can active funds reliably beat the index? Actually, Yes.
Replies: 37
Views: 4655

Re: Why Not 100% Treasuries if your Risk is on the Equity Si

Remember that treasuries are not risk-free. Longer-term treasuries carry duration risk. Short-term treasuries are considered risk-free, but can of course still lag behind inflation. So when people talk about taking risk on the equity side, they usually man keeping your bonds both short and high qua...
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Nov 15, 2014 8:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why Not 100% Treasuries if your Risk is on the Equity Side?
Replies: 40
Views: 3592

Re: Why Not 100% Treasuries if your Risk is on the Equity Si

Remember that treasuries are not risk-free. Longer-term treasuries carry duration risk. Short-term treasuries are considered risk-free, but can of course still lag behind inflation. So when people talk about taking risk on the equity side, they usually man keeping your bonds both short and high qual...
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Nov 14, 2014 8:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why Not 100% Treasuries if your Risk is on the Equity Side?
Replies: 40
Views: 3592

Re: How Do You Use the VIX (Fear & Greed Index)?

How do you use the VIX (Fear & Greed Index) in order to make or influence your personal investment decisions? I monitor the index closely on an hourly basis - sometime skipping meals in order to track it closely. When it exceeds a pre-defined threshold, I yank all of my money out of stocks and ...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Nov 13, 2014 10:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Use the VIX (Fear & Greed Index)?
Replies: 15
Views: 1096

Re: Bogleheads get to hedge fund guy

Clearly written by someone highly frustrated.

I love these arguments that stock index funds are bad because they go down when the broad market goes down.
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Nov 13, 2014 7:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads get to hedge fund guy
Replies: 28
Views: 4358

Re: Mr Bogle - 20x p/e warning

"Using the S&P 500, 20 times estimated future operating earnings," Bogle said. "That's a good warning sign." http://finance.yahoo.com/news/vanguard-founder-jack-bogles-market-225615191.html;_ylt=AwrSyCOLdGFUz1cAN3.TmYlQ Sounds like timing to me. No, it's not timing, it's sim...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Nov 11, 2014 7:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr Bogle - 20x p/e warning
Replies: 22
Views: 3180

Re: astonishing performance of US markets vs others

When I compared veu or vwo vs spy over the past 5 years I was surprised to see how much better US markets (eg spy) have done. Have been painfully re-balancing by selling spy and buying more international markets. Would like to hear others viewpoint on whether such out-performance has happened in th...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Nov 11, 2014 7:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: astonishing performance of US markets vs others
Replies: 50
Views: 4920

Re: Advice please [Received large commission check]

You should have an Investment Policy Statement written that defines how to invest new cash.
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Nov 08, 2014 10:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice please [Received large commission check]
Replies: 20
Views: 1842

Re: What if I Never Buy a House?

I like knowing my house is mine and I can pretty much have it just the way I want it. There's a degree of control that comes with owning a house that one doesn't have in an apartment. I have never looked on buying a house as an investment. That's how I see it. The privacy and control are priceless....
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Nov 08, 2014 7:25 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What if I Never Buy a House?
Replies: 57
Views: 6320

Re: The Sky is Falling

Not that it matters as everyone here is diversified and buy/hold investors, but..... I told myself that next time we were in a crazy stock bubble, I would realize it. Now I look at the crazy IPO's going on with companies that have no earnings or chance of earnings for a long time raising millions. ...
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Nov 07, 2014 2:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Sky is Falling
Replies: 36
Views: 4920

Re: Junk bond fund NAVs

My understanding is that junk bond fund NAVs decline over time due to defaults in the portfolio, and as a result, long term appreciation comes exclusively from reinvested dividends. As a result, Isn't it inevitable that junk bond funds will all, at some point in the future, go to 0? Does this neces...
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Nov 07, 2014 12:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Junk bond fund NAVs
Replies: 86
Views: 5171

Re: A Comforting Fact for Me

I noticed that since at least 1980, never has both the S&P index and Barclays Bond index showed a decline during the same year. Another reason to diversify. :happy But it can happen. However, bonds have an intrinsic recovery mechanism, which stocks do not have. Hence the higher risk of stocks.
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Nov 07, 2014 8:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Comforting Fact for Me
Replies: 6
Views: 1620

Re: Are you buying I bonds in 2014? And if so, for what role

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:
Call_Me_Op wrote:I buy I-Bonds and EE-Bonds each year. They are added to my "SAFE" allocation, which can be thought-of as cash-like.


I had been doing that, but have found paying down debt offers a far better, immediate return on my money.


I don't have any debt left to pay-off. :)
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Nov 06, 2014 11:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are you buying I bonds in 2014? And if so, for what role?
Replies: 46
Views: 5446

Re: Help me get out of this crazy account

Nisi's comments above are right-on. We are currently going through this with my mom's IRA transfer to Vanguard. The representative had her funds sold at the sending institution and placed in a money market. Her assets have sat in the money market during the recent run-up. It was done this way to sav...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Nov 06, 2014 10:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help me get out of this crazy account
Replies: 7
Views: 918

Re: Good book for 13 year old?

I like Mike Piper's "Investing Made Simple." It is a quick read but right on target.
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Nov 06, 2014 8:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Good book for 13 year old?
Replies: 14
Views: 1663

Re: Are you buying I bonds in 2014? And if so, for what role

I buy I-Bonds and EE-Bonds each year. They are added to my "SAFE" allocation, which can be thought-of as cash-like.
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Nov 06, 2014 8:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are you buying I bonds in 2014? And if so, for what role?
Replies: 46
Views: 5446

Re: A 27-year-old millionaire reveals how he built his wealt

No need to apologize, Fred. Just making sure you see the previous discussion of the topic.
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Nov 05, 2014 3:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 27 yr old reaches $1m net worth [Update: With lies.]
Replies: 56
Views: 10750

Re: Oil and or Metals?

Bustoff wrote:Gold is at a four-year low and heading for a five-year low. Maybe it's time to "re-balance" into some GLD.


Maybe....or maybe not.
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Nov 05, 2014 12:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil and or Metals?
Replies: 19
Views: 1166

Re: Taxable Account Strategy Suggestions

ezmaass wrote: I have to admit, though - there's a certain level of warm, fuzzy comfort that comes with being able to pick up the phone and talk to a live person with decades of financial markets experience.


That thought doesn't give me a warm, fuzzy comfort. It gives me a chill up my spine.
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Nov 05, 2014 9:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taxable Account Strategy Suggestions
Replies: 7
Views: 734

Re: Market return and elections

I would not rely on any predictions of market cycles. If they prove to be reliable over a period of time, the market will arbitrage the effect away.

I have noticed a "Santa Claus Rally" for the past several years - but I wouldn't wait until Dec 24th each year to invest my money.
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Nov 05, 2014 8:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market return and elections
Replies: 7
Views: 912

Re: I have seen the enemy and it is me. Reluctance to inves

Have you noticed that all 3 times (twice before - and today) that you have been prompted to enter the market have been at or near market peaks? I would exercise great caution in your circumstances. What you have accumulated you have done through hard work with little or no help from financial market...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Nov 05, 2014 8:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I have seen the enemy and it is me. Reluctance to invest
Replies: 29
Views: 3373
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