Search found 5204 matches

by Call_Me_Op
Mon Jun 29, 2015 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: On your deathbed will you say "darn, I wish I had invested in smart-beta"?
Replies: 3
Views: 532

Re: On your deathbed will you say "darn, I wish I had invested in smart-beta"?

I seriously doubt that anyone is worrying about their historical investment return when on their deathbed.
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Jun 29, 2015 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: stock picking works best in emerging markets
Replies: 1
Views: 266

Re: stock picking works best in emerging markets

Larry,

Thanks for your persistence in reminding us of the "relentless rules of humble arithmetic."
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Jun 28, 2015 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An Argument for Long Term Treasury Bonds
Replies: 61
Views: 4440

Re: An Argument for Long Term Treasury Bonds

It's interesting that people always discuss "long-term treasury bonds" in the context of the 30 year treasury. The 10 year will give you the same qualitative behavior in "flight to quality" scenario with much less inflation risk. Is there a good fund/ETF for 10-year Treasuries? ...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Jun 28, 2015 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An Argument for Long Term Treasury Bonds
Replies: 61
Views: 4440

Re: An Argument for Long Term Treasury Bonds

It's interesting that people always discuss "long-term treasury bonds" in the context of the 30 year treasury. The 10 year will give you the same qualitative behavior in "flight to quality" scenario with much less inflation risk. Is there a good fund/ETF for 10-year Treasuries? ...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Jun 28, 2015 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Index - What % of equities?
Replies: 74
Views: 6555

Re: Small Cap Index - What % of equities?

Can you link me to the Larry portfolio? I think that can be arranged. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=87569 Very interesting read. I however don't believe that small and value is a proven effective tilt. It may not continue to outperform in the future. I will take the market return...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Jun 28, 2015 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Decumulation Phase and BH principles
Replies: 49
Views: 5721

Re: Decumulation Phase and BH principles

I think people tend to complicate the withdrawal stuff. Hold a diversified portfolio that is compatible with your risk tolerance and withdraw up to 4% of the portfolio value each year.
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Jun 28, 2015 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Index - What % of equities?
Replies: 74
Views: 6555

Re: Small Cap Index - What % of equities?

Can you link me to the Larry portfolio? I think that can be arranged. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=87569 Very interesting read. I however don't believe that small and value is a proven effective tilt. It may not continue to outperform in the future. I will take the market return...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Jun 28, 2015 8:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I borrow if I can buy a house with cash?
Replies: 26
Views: 3265

Re: Should I borrow if I can buy a house with cash?

But suppose I found a nice duplex for $250,000 somewhere. It seems intuitive to me that it would be better to pay cash if you can. Then you don't have to pay interest. That's a win, right? (Or am I missing something?) Yes, you are missing all the other potential uses (or needs) for that $250k. I wo...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Jun 28, 2015 7:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do Bonds perform in market crashes?
Replies: 9
Views: 1262

Re: How do Bonds perform in market crashes?

So in an emergency fund, would you be okay with high grade short-term corporate bonds? Will that mostly protect from a crash in typical circumstances? Also, how do municipal bonds perform in market crashes? You can easily look-up this information on Vanguard's, Fidelity's, or Moningstar's websites,...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Jun 28, 2015 7:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I borrow if I can buy a house with cash?
Replies: 26
Views: 3265

Re: Should I borrow if I can buy a house with cash?

DVMResident wrote:You're missing leverage.
With $350k and mortgages, you can have 3 of those $250k duplexes. That's 6 units instead of 2. More cash-flow risk, of course.


More risk, period. I have seen too many friends use leverage to buy a lot of real estate and go down in flames.
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Jun 28, 2015 7:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Index - What % of equities?
Replies: 74
Views: 6555

Re: Small Cap Index - What % of equities?

ajacobs6 wrote:Can you link me to the Larry portfolio?


I think that can be arranged.

viewtopic.php?t=87569
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Jun 28, 2015 6:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?
Replies: 217
Views: 18869

Re: Bond funds

Taylor Larimore wrote:
AllieTB1323 wrote:My father-in-law, on the advice of his trusted adviser, had about half of his bond investments in Lehman Bros.bonds.

Allie:

Your father-in-law's experience is the reason to use good-quality bond funds.


..or individual treasuries or CDs or Savings Bonds.
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Jun 28, 2015 6:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Index - What % of equities?
Replies: 74
Views: 6555

Re: Small Cap Index - What % of equities?

Does anyone hold any small cap emerging market funds? Yes, I hold EEMS. There is no trading fee for this ETF through Fidelity. The only caution is that it is thinly traded (as small-cap EM stocks are) and you must be careful to use limit orders. BTW, I tilt heavily toward small-cap, value, and EM. ...
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Jun 27, 2015 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 10 year Broker CDs vs 10 year Treasury
Replies: 26
Views: 2294

Re: 10 year Broker CDs vs 10 year Treasury

TheTimeLord wrote:
Call_Me_Op wrote:That approach is OK for new money, but may not be so good if you currently have money in cash you'd like to invest.


Could you expand on your reasoning.


Sure. If this approach is applied to existing funds, those funds will not be fully invested for 9 years.
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Jun 27, 2015 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why tilt to bonds in retirement?
Replies: 29
Views: 3845

Re: Why tilt to bonds in retirement?

Vega wrote:Because bonds held to maturity are basically risk free.


Except, of course, for unexpected inflation in the case of nominal bonds.
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Jun 27, 2015 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 10 year Broker CDs vs 10 year Treasury
Replies: 26
Views: 2294

Re: 10 year Broker CDs vs 10 year Treasury

Since you are holding for the "long haul" (as you mentioned), a ten-year ladder of ten-year brokered CDs is optimal. Buy one this year, another next year, and so on. Brokered CDs at ten years are about as good as it gets these days. That approach is OK for new money, but may not be so goo...
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Jun 27, 2015 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: While you've been waiting for interest rates to go UP ...
Replies: 12
Views: 2277

Re: While you've been waiting for interest rates to go UP ...

Right. And I say we should all be hoping that they go up further. It is the only way we will make any real money in bonds. Agreed, falling rates only benefit traders. Buy and hold investors benefit from rising rates. I'd love to have had the chance to go 100% into U.S. treasury bonds when rates wer...
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Jun 27, 2015 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 10 year Broker CDs vs 10 year Treasury
Replies: 26
Views: 2294

Re: 10 year Broker CDs vs 10 year Treasury

Liquidity. Though under FDIC insurance limits this is for most individuals probably a much better deal. But as Broker CDs they can be traded on the secondary market. So are you just pointing out is may be a smaller less liquid market than treasuries? This is a very meaningful question for me since ...
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Jun 27, 2015 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 10 year Broker CDs vs 10 year Treasury
Replies: 26
Views: 2294

Re: 10 year Broker CDs vs 10 year Treasury

Depends upon your goals for this money. There are two risks that non-callable CD's have compared to treasuries of the same maturity - reduced liquidity and future interest is not guaranteed (which is actually a form of call risk). Also, the CD's are taxed by the state whereas the treasuries are not....
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Jun 27, 2015 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: While you've been waiting for interest rates to go UP ...
Replies: 12
Views: 2277

Re: While you've been waiting for interest rates to go UP ...

Right. And I say we should all be hoping that they go up further. It is the only way we will make any real money in bonds.
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Jun 26, 2015 7:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interest rate risk and bonds
Replies: 8
Views: 865

Re: Interest rate risk and bonds

The only place for interest rates to go is up in the future. Therefore the bond portion of the typical asset allocation model would suffer asset price losses. This in my opinion puts the passive investing model at great risk for sustained losses in the not too distant future. What if any action can...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Jun 25, 2015 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?
Replies: 228
Views: 13750

Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

This has been eye-opening for me. I am probably the most conservative (on an age-adjusted basis) of everyone who has thus far responded.

Age = Early-Mid 50's

AA = 33/67 stocks/fixed

Planning to nudge this to 36/64.
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Jun 25, 2015 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook
Replies: 90
Views: 6892

Re: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook

People are notoriously bad at predicting future performance of the stock market. That means everybody.
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Jun 25, 2015 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Safe haven for next crash
Replies: 19
Views: 2645

Re: Safe haven for next crash

Hi Everyone, I'm just a newbie here, so please excuse this dumb question. I know that market timing is a fool's game, but jumping in to an overheated market also seems foolish to me. Logic says that bond prices can only move in one direction from where they are today. Really? Please explain this lo...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Jun 24, 2015 7:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reducing BND before rate increases
Replies: 34
Views: 3061

Re: Reducing BND before rate increases

We all know that zero interest rates will not continue. The Fed is strongly signaling September or December, with March as the outlier. Rates go up, BND (Total US Bond) goes down. Not exactly. You have a misconception as to how bonds interact with Fed rate hikes. First, all that is known is already...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Jun 24, 2015 6:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?
Replies: 217
Views: 18869

Re: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?

There seems to be a paucity of people who rebalanced into equities to get back to their stated asset allocation during this time. Recalling the chart I posted earlier in this thread, equities were down 20% in 2008 before the drop in October and they were down more than that in October and again fro...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Jun 24, 2015 5:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Protecting assets against frivolous litigations
Replies: 16
Views: 1524

Re: Protecting assets against frivolous litigations

Laws vary by state, as you can imagine. The only federally protected assets from litigation are 401ks, private 403bs, and TSP. Interesting nugget buried in here, "private" 403bs." I would have thought that all 403bs fall under ERISA. What is an example of a "public 403b" th...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Jun 24, 2015 5:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?
Replies: 217
Views: 18869

Re: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?

I was 43 years old in 2008. I was 90% in CDs and municipal bonds and still was very concerned about what was going on. In fact I still have some fear about buying shares because of the 2008 financial crisis, which, in my opinion, is not not totally over. I agree that it is not totally over. Short-t...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Jun 24, 2015 5:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?
Replies: 217
Views: 18869

Re: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?

There was a moment when we stopped worrying about stock prices, and started worrying whether our bank deposits were safe-- whether these seemingly solid financial institutions would disappear into vapor. True. I remember feeling comforted when the head of the FDIC at the time (Sheila Bair) had the ...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Jun 23, 2015 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?
Replies: 217
Views: 18869

Re: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?

The truth of the matter is not only did we not know WHEN the decline would end, we did not really know whether it would end at all. True with any decline, I suppose. That is one of the reasons why the 2000-03 one was so grueling -- it was stretched out over a longer period than 08-09. Perhaps, but ...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Jun 23, 2015 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why tilt to bonds in retirement?
Replies: 29
Views: 3845

Re: Why tilt bonds in retirement?

The past is always certain. The future is always uncertain. i don't care what any analysis of past data says. I do not want to lose (say) 10 years worth of savings in a few months. That's just not something I want when I am retired and have essentially exhausted my "human capital." Only pa...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Jun 23, 2015 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?
Replies: 217
Views: 18869

Re: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?

Only someone who did not experience what it was like in 2008 could wish for it to happen again. The truth of the matter is not only did we not know WHEN the decline would end, we did not really know whether it would end at all. That is the true risk of risky assets. And looking at plots of past perf...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Jun 23, 2015 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Beta against Bond Funds
Replies: 8
Views: 551

Re: Beta against Bond Funds

That doesn't make sense. Beta is always measured in terms of the appropriate benchmark. the stock market is not the appropriate benchmark for a bond fund.
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Jun 23, 2015 10:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Natural Gas Heated Home w/o Flue?
Replies: 17
Views: 1836

Re: Natural Gas Heated Home w/o Flue?

Local building codes should require specific inlet and outlet heights based on regional snow levels, and clearances from construction such as windows and driveways. New construction should certainly meet local codes, older construction is much more problematic and should be considered in a home ins...
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Jun 22, 2015 3:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Natural Gas Heated Home w/o Flue?
Replies: 17
Views: 1836

Re: Natural Gas Heated Home w/o Flue?

The newer furnaces are direct vented. Because of high efficiency, the combustion products are cooler and flues are deemed unnecessary. However, if the vent is close to the ground in an area that gets a lot of snow, it may need to be raised - or you'll have to be vigilant about keeping it clear. Our...
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Jun 22, 2015 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stable Value Fund & Bonds
Replies: 9
Views: 1274

Re: Stable Value Fund & Bonds

I have half of my fixed income in stable value. The other half is split 50/50 between total bond and TIPS. This seems to be a common way to split-up fixed-income, but I do it because it feels right.
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Jun 22, 2015 11:28 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Natural Gas Heated Home w/o Flue?
Replies: 17
Views: 1836

Re: Natural Gas Heated Home w/o Flue?

The newer furnaces are direct vented. Because of high efficiency, the combustion products are cooler and flues are deemed unnecessary. However, if the vent is close to the ground in an area that gets a lot of snow, it may need to be raised - or you'll have to be vigilant about keeping it clear. Our...
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Jun 22, 2015 7:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Natural Gas Heated Home w/o Flue?
Replies: 17
Views: 1836

Re: Natural Gas Heated Home w/o Flue?

My wife and I are in the market for a new home. My personal preference is to stay with nat gas hated home. Several houses we have seen (but not been inside of), do not have flues on top of the house. However, we see a gas meter on the side and we see that fireplace bump outs have flues. That tells ...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Jun 21, 2015 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Corporate Bonds vs. Treasuries
Replies: 21
Views: 1909

Re: Corporate Bonds vs. Treasuries

The Fed controls only the very short-term yield (vis a vis its interest rate knob). It is quite conceivable that a 10 year treasury, for example, sees no price movement when the Fed increments the overnight rate. That's true, but that is not what the OP asked. If the OP had asked "Is it concei...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Jun 21, 2015 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Funds and Raising Interest Rates
Replies: 41
Views: 5233

Re: Bond Funds and Raising Interest Rates

But you don't want CDs for the rest of your life. Why not? 1. 100% in CDs is not a diversified portfolio 2. The returns will not keep up with inflation 3. Related to #2: The OP is only 52 and CDs will be at risk of not reaching his goals, assuming he needs this money to finance retirement. Who said...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Jun 21, 2015 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Funds and Raising Interest Rates
Replies: 41
Views: 5233

Re: Bond Funds and Raising Interest Rates

But you don't want CDs for the rest of your life. Why not? 1. 100% in CDs is not a diversified portfolio 2. The returns will not keep up with inflation 3. Related to #2: The OP is only 52 and CDs will be at risk of not reaching his goals, assuming he needs this money to finance retirement. Who said...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Jun 21, 2015 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Corporate Bonds vs. Treasuries
Replies: 21
Views: 1909

Re: Corporate Bonds vs. Treasuries

Keeping duration constant, which bonds are most likely to suffer the larger price drop if the Fed raises interest rates - corporates or Treasuries. Treasuries. Isn't this an oversimplification? It seems to ignore market factors and magnitude of the duration in question. The Fed controls only the ve...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Jun 21, 2015 6:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Funds and Raising Interest Rates
Replies: 41
Views: 5233

Re: Bond Funds and Raising Interest Rates

sschullo wrote: But you don't want CDs for the rest of your life.


Why not?
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Jun 21, 2015 6:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Funds and Raising Interest Rates
Replies: 41
Views: 5233

Re: Bond Funds and Raising Interest Rates

Stock mutual funds I've held for a long time. They have always come back after a loss. I'm new to Bonds and Bond funds. I don't have a real good understanding how they work yet. I'm not sure if I'm worrying about nothing. In my mind they should not be losing money. Sounds like you invested in somet...
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Jun 20, 2015 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Corporate Bonds vs. Treasuries
Replies: 21
Views: 1909

Re: Corporate Bonds vs. Treasuries

Keeping duration constant, which bonds are most likely to suffer the larger price drop if the Fed raises interest rates - corporates or Treasuries. And given that I am a retiree so that I don't have as many decades as younger fold to make up for amy loss, would you suggest that I tilt my bond portf...
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Jun 19, 2015 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "An Interview With A Boglehead"
Replies: 18
Views: 2719

Re: "An Interview With A Boglehead"

I like the author's final comment: "Clearly the boglehead strategy has worked for Robert XXX. The question is, does this straightforward approach achieve the best results for every portfolio, especially those in the high-net-worth category?" Why does an approach need to achieve "the b...
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Jun 19, 2015 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interest rate hedged bond ETF
Replies: 9
Views: 684

Re: Interest rate hedged bond ETF

I fear that people's fear of bonds is driving them to some risky vehicles.
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Jun 18, 2015 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Change of heart on bonds
Replies: 29
Views: 4352

Re: Change of heart on bonds

Jack Bogle recommends "age in bonds" as a starting point. I think it's a good place to start. Then you can adjust up or down once you get a good read on your risk tolerance.
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Jun 18, 2015 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)
Replies: 14
Views: 1364

Re: SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)

Are you asking what drives the price of gold? The answer is pure speculation - at least over the short term.

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