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Re: Blog: Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio

This comment by Desert didn't receive much in the way of follow-up, but when I ran the numbers on his suggested portfolio I was most impressed. Indeed, studying past performance can lead to some great portfolios, especially if they hold 75% of assets in bonds during the greatest bond run-up in hist...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Oct 30, 2014 12:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blog: Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 41
Views: 4332

Re: BND or a CD

There is nothing wrong with seeking a little more yield in safe CDs rather than in intermediate bonds. I am not sure there is a lot of advantage to be gained. It is dancing on the head of a pin. The advantage is mainly psychological - although this can be very important. With a CD, I know I that at...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Oct 30, 2014 9:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: BND or a CD
Replies: 9
Views: 656

Re: Questions on bond funds in taxable

If the person wants to get an idea of muni risk versus (say) treasuries, they can look at what happened in 2008 - as a fairly extreme example. Muni's can have liquidity problems where-as treasuries, certain bank CD's, and certain Savings Bonds will not. This was manifested in 2008. That said, not al...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Oct 29, 2014 1:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Questions on bond funds in taxable
Replies: 22
Views: 1422

Re: how risky is stock investing?

Hi everyone, I'm happy to discover this particular forum and this is my very first post. I bought "the intelligent investor" recommanded by Buffet and been watching lot of videos about stock investing. You bought it, but have you read it? The wording of your question suggests perhaps not.
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: how risky is stock investing?
Replies: 16
Views: 1141

Re: Questions on bond funds in taxable

I am surprised that people recommend muni bonds without adjusting for risk. If a person must hold bonds in taxable in order to achieve an asset allocation and if the person is in a high tax bracket and so should probably use tax-exempt bonds , how do you suggest they adjust for risk? That person sh...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Questions on bond funds in taxable
Replies: 22
Views: 1422

Re: Do you dream about retirement?

I'm 28. And to preface this I work in a hospital. No, I don't dream about retirement. I spend less time on these boards than I did when I was 25, partially because I'm now on autopilot but also because I don't feel the same way many of you do about saving anymore. Because I see so many people daily...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Oct 29, 2014 8:39 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you dream about retirement?
Replies: 82
Views: 5194

Re: A Challenge for Bogleheads - the market has changed

So, the post has made me apprehensive about buying VUSD for as long as it's at a historical high. More than that, he has also suggested that the Boglehead philosophy won't work any longer due to the changing markets. Crisis of confidence here! This time it's different. How many times have we heard ...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Oct 29, 2014 8:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Challenge for Bogleheads - the market has changed
Replies: 44
Views: 3650

Re: Do you dream about retirement?

I'm 28. And to preface this I work in a hospital. No, I don't dream about retirement. I spend less time on these boards than I did when I was 25, partially because I'm now on autopilot but also because I don't feel the same way many of you do about saving anymore. Because I see so many people daily...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Oct 29, 2014 8:22 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you dream about retirement?
Replies: 82
Views: 5194

Re: Paul Merriman criticism?

Someone should drop Paul a line and have him come here and clarify his strategy. I think his strategy is fine if one has the time and inclination to monitor and rebalance it, otherwise, there are other funds available that could suit your needs and it doesn't require 10 funds to do so. I don't thin...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Oct 29, 2014 8:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman criticism?
Replies: 49
Views: 2869

Re: Questions on bond funds in taxable

I am surprised that people recommend muni bonds without adjusting for risk. Muni bonds are a reasonable substitute for investment-grade bonds if you wish/need to those hold bonds in a taxable account. They should not be compared on the basis of after-tax yield (alone) with total bond or CD's because...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Oct 29, 2014 8:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Questions on bond funds in taxable
Replies: 22
Views: 1422

Re: Paul Merriman criticism?

I think people sometimes get too wrapped-up in terminology. There are asset sub-classes that tend to have higher risk than the overall market, and if you are willing to take this additional risk you are likely to obtain a greater return. Doesn't matter what you call the strategy - it's just the old ...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Oct 29, 2014 8:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman criticism?
Replies: 49
Views: 2869

Re: A Challenge for Bogleheads - the market has changed

The primary message of the post I quoted at the start is that it would be almost foolish for new investors to buy the S&P 500 and other high-price stocks today , even if the new investor planned on following the Boglehead philosophy. Far better, the post argues, to keep your money in cash until...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Oct 29, 2014 7:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Challenge for Bogleheads - the market has changed
Replies: 44
Views: 3650

Re: Paul Merriman criticism?

Please note that the term "evidence-based" was mine. I don't even recall Paul using the term. I used it in the literal sense, meaning based upon evidence. My point was that his recommendation to tilt (like nearly all other tilting recommendations) is based upon the past performance of asse...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman criticism?
Replies: 49
Views: 2869

Re: Paul Merriman criticism?

His approach is evidence-based I don't buy into the term "evidence based" investing. It means there is evidence in the past data to support past results. Isn't that true for everything? Long-term bonds have yield more than short-term bonds, therefore there is evidence that they may yield ...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman criticism?
Replies: 49
Views: 2869

Re: Paul Merriman criticism?

As mentioned above, he does use market-timing for half of his portfolio. He also has about 10% of his assets in a hedge fund. But he doesn't recommend these things to listeners. I never heard that he uses a hedge fund. What evidence based information is he using for that? That is definitely anti-bo...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman criticism?
Replies: 49
Views: 2869

Re: "Priced In"

Thanks Taylor. I have found that Mike's work is very well done and presented in a way that is very understandable.
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Oct 28, 2014 7:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Priced In"
Replies: 2
Views: 1201

Re: Paul Merriman criticism?

I am a regular listener to Paul's podcasts and receive his free newsletter. His approach is evidence-based, that is, based upon historical performance of the various "asset classes." He slices and dices to exploit many of the known risk factors that have historically been compensated. He e...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Oct 28, 2014 6:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman criticism?
Replies: 49
Views: 2869

Re: Do you dream about retirement?

I think it's a mistake to dream about something that might take place when you are much older and in uncertain health. I think we should plan for retirement, but not at the expense of living life today. To me, the goal of retirement planning is to ensure that I will not be forced to do something und...
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Oct 27, 2014 11:56 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you dream about retirement?
Replies: 82
Views: 5194

Re: BlackRock Strategic Income Opportunities Fund

Hi Steve, It's a marketing video, IMO lots of smoke and mirrors. I would stick to a low-cost fund that attempts to track an index, as I believe you are doing. I think sometimes people are intrigued by something that is not fully disclosed. It's human nature to think that someone has a "secret s...
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Oct 25, 2014 11:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BlackRock Strategic Income Opportunities Fund
Replies: 14
Views: 1412

Re: BlackRock Strategic Income Opportunities Fund

IMO, way too risky and expensive. Not sure why "it looks interesting." Maybe because you don't understand what's in it?
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Oct 25, 2014 8:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BlackRock Strategic Income Opportunities Fund
Replies: 14
Views: 1412

Re: Bond exposure in my portfolio

Right now i have 20% of my retirement portfolio in a total bond fund from fidelity. In my individual investment account i have a long term treasury bond (FLBAX) and some exposure to TIP's and corporate bonds via ETFs. Are these good bonds to hold on to with the rising interest rates and current mar...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Oct 23, 2014 12:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond exposure in my portfolio
Replies: 13
Views: 1477

Re: Bond fund, why such high returns?

I was planning to invest in the following european bond fund: https://www.justetf.com/ch-en/etf-profile.html?region=Europe&index=EuroMTS%2BInvestment%2BGrade%2BEurozone%2BGovernment%2BBond&assetClass=class-bonds&distributionPolicy=distributionPolicy-accumulating&isin=FR0010028860&am...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Oct 23, 2014 12:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond fund, why such high returns?
Replies: 13
Views: 1581

Re: Active bond funds better than indexes? Pimco thinks so

...See, for example, Oppenheimer Core Bond A. I see that Nisi has already mentioned this fund. My mother was a holder - one of the reasons I am moving her IRA to Vanguard (and index funds)... How awful. Just curious: was she holding during the drop, and just how aware is she of what happened in tha...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Oct 23, 2014 12:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active bond funds better than indexes? Pimco thinks so
Replies: 36
Views: 2463

Re: Active bond funds better than indexes? Pimco thinks so

Uh huh ... even index funds can be subject to manager risk at times, as was TBM back then. Index funds greatly minimize the risk - and when they err, it tends to be a small tracking error, not a 40%-50% drop. The article is about bonds funds. I know - that's what I was talking about. I was addressi...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active bond funds better than indexes? Pimco thinks so
Replies: 36
Views: 2463

Re: Bogle and dry powder

livesoft wrote:So is "Wet Powder" something like Total US Bond Index fund shares?


No, wet powder might be something like junk bonds.
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle and dry powder
Replies: 29
Views: 4940

Re: Bogle and dry powder

I have seen Mr. Bogle's dry powder quotes a lot and his use of the term dry powder is a bit different than what I have heard from others. Having said that and looking at his quote below it makes me wonder what is he intending to say about bonds as an investment. Is he saying they are a good investm...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle and dry powder
Replies: 29
Views: 4940

Re: Bogle and dry powder

I have seen Mr. Bogle's dry powder quotes a lot and his use of the term dry powder is a bit different than what I have heard from others. Having said that and looking at his quote below it makes me wonder what is he intending to say about bonds as an investment. Is he saying they are a good investm...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle and dry powder
Replies: 29
Views: 4940

Re: Active bond funds better than indexes? Pimco thinks so

Doc wrote:
Call_Me_Op wrote:
tetractys wrote:Uh huh ... even index funds can be subject to manager risk at times, as was TBM back then.


Index funds greatly minimize the risk - and when they err, it tends to be a small tracking error, not a 40%-50% drop.


The article is about bonds funds.


I know - that's what I was talking about.
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Oct 23, 2014 7:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active bond funds better than indexes? Pimco thinks so
Replies: 36
Views: 2463

Re: Active bond funds better than indexes? Pimco thinks so

tetractys wrote:Uh huh ... even index funds can be subject to manager risk at times, as was TBM back then.


Index funds greatly minimize the risk - and when they err, it tends to be a small tracking error, not a 40%-50% drop.
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Oct 22, 2014 2:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active bond funds better than indexes? Pimco thinks so
Replies: 36
Views: 2463

Re: Active bond funds better than indexes? Pimco thinks so

In my opinion, those who advocate against bond indexing are partaking in a form of performance chasing - that is, assuming that they know better than the market as a whole. The big danger in this is manager risk - the risk that the manager of your active bond fund will do something really stupid. Th...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Oct 22, 2014 12:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active bond funds better than indexes? Pimco thinks so
Replies: 36
Views: 2463

Re: Bauer-Ramazani v. TIAA-CREF settled

On the question of whether this "award" may be taxable, I called TIAA-CREF, and they were of no help at all.
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Oct 22, 2014 8:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bauer-Ramazani v. TIAA-CREF settled
Replies: 24
Views: 2102

Re: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks

Real engineers see the futility of this endeavor. :)
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Oct 21, 2014 4:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks?
Replies: 125
Views: 8818

Re: Pimco vs. Jack Bogle on active management of bonds

In my view, active management generally has a huge risk - and that is risk associated with the manager. If I were to invest in an actively-managed bond fund, it would have to have a narrowly-defined charter and very low cost.
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Oct 21, 2014 11:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pimco vs. Jack Bogle on active management of bonds
Replies: 18
Views: 1992

Re: Why I won't have bond funds

toto238 wrote:The next 30 years may be BETTER than the last 30 years for bonds.


Interestingly, this scenario can only occur if one's bonds have relatively short duration and would involve a dramatic increase in interest rates over the near term.
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Oct 21, 2014 8:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I won't have bond funds
Replies: 54
Views: 7943

Re: Individual Bonds versus Bond Funds - Again

If you hold a bond fund/ETF for longer than its duration, the bond fund/ETF is better than individual bonds because it's cheaper and easier. There are many assumptions built-into your statement. What you say may be true in a case with a very specific set of assumptions, but I can think of cases whe...
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Oct 20, 2014 4:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Individual Bonds versus Bond Funds - Again
Replies: 17
Views: 1238

Re: DOW Watchers Stomach Syndrome

Doc wrote:
Call_Me_Op wrote:Just noise.

Agreed but really LOUD noise.


Just increase the SPF of your earmuffs. :)
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Oct 20, 2014 10:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DOW Watchers Stomach Syndrome
Replies: 25
Views: 2093

Re: Individual Bonds versus Bond Funds - Again

Kenner,

I agree that these problems, if real, are unlikely to materialize in Vanguard's bond funds (although many are actively managed) and certainly should not be an issue in passively-managed funds.
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Oct 20, 2014 9:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Individual Bonds versus Bond Funds - Again
Replies: 17
Views: 1238

Re: DOW Watchers Stomach Syndrome

Just noise.
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Oct 20, 2014 9:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DOW Watchers Stomach Syndrome
Replies: 25
Views: 2093

Re: Individual Bonds versus Bond Funds - Again

Hi kenner,

This excerpt, that the authors states without explanation, counters your argument.

Depending on how significant the redemptions are, they may have to sell off their highest-yielding bonds and replace them with those offering a lower yield, or assume more risk to obtain the same return.
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Oct 20, 2014 9:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Individual Bonds versus Bond Funds - Again
Replies: 17
Views: 1238

Individual Bonds versus Bond Funds - Again

I recently stumbled across an article that attempts to give an explanation of why individual bonds may be preferred over bond funds. Here is a link to the article: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101565187 Read, in particular, under " Selloffs, supply and price ". I believe the essence of the autho...
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Oct 20, 2014 8:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Individual Bonds versus Bond Funds - Again
Replies: 17
Views: 1238

Re: Dumb CD question

Interestingly, my credit union offers a 5 year CD with no early withdrawal penalty. That is interesting. Are you sure that CU allows early redemptions? Yes, I called recently and specifically asked about their penalty for early redemptions. I was told "at this time, there is none." The ra...
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Oct 20, 2014 7:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dumb CD question
Replies: 10
Views: 907

Re: Dumb CD question

Interestingly, my credit union offers a 5 year CD with no early withdrawal penalty.
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Oct 20, 2014 6:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dumb CD question
Replies: 10
Views: 907

Re: Attorney Hourly Rates?

Cheapest I've ever seen is a young attorney who charged $165/hr. Others charge over $400/hr.
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Oct 19, 2014 6:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Attorney Hourly Rates?
Replies: 41
Views: 3028

Re: Why are 401k plans expensive?

Because they can get away with it?

Why is the average mutual fund expense ratio around 1.5%?
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Oct 19, 2014 6:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are 401k plans expensive?
Replies: 39
Views: 3049

Re: What to do with Mom's IRA

Thanks all for the replies. I like the idea of one of the LifeStrategy funds for her.
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Oct 18, 2014 8:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with Mom's IRA
Replies: 8
Views: 870

Re: Livesoft - Thank you

I just wish he would post more often.
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Oct 17, 2014 5:47 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Livesoft - Thank you
Replies: 37
Views: 4109

What to do with Mom's IRA

My mom is retired and has an IRA with Oppenheimer Funds, called (something like) Sharebuilder. It uses class A shares with high fees and expenses - and lots of manager risk. I am considering moving her to Vanguard or Fidelity. I'd like a firm that offers automatic rebalancing and will do a good job ...
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Oct 17, 2014 1:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with Mom's IRA
Replies: 8
Views: 870

Re: TBM too much treasury?

I've come across a few articles ( one quoting Jack Bogle ) suggesting that the Total Bond Index Fund is too heavy in government bonds and investors should consider adding Intermediate corporate bonds to achieve a better diversification . Any opinions on this? Too heavy compared to what? It holds tr...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Oct 16, 2014 12:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TBM too much treasury?
Replies: 67
Views: 4364

Re: Your personal risk level: Got your flu shot yet?

Ninegrams wrote:No flu shot for me. Show me the peer reviewed studies of efficacy and maybe I'll change my mind.


+1
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Oct 16, 2014 12:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Your personal risk level: Got your flu shot yet?
Replies: 93
Views: 3004
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