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Re: RBD here yet? (DOW -300points drop) [Really Bad Day]

I've noticed a sudden suspension (in this forum) of posts on going 100% into equities. Curious...
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Aug 01, 2014 9:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: RBD here yet? (DOW -300points drop) [Really Bad Day]
Replies: 43
Views: 4029

Re: I-bond purchasing strategy

vtMaps wrote:July 1st 1915.

--vtmaps


Intriguing.
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Aug 01, 2014 8:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I-bond purchasing strategy
Replies: 16
Views: 1986

Re: Central AC replacement decision

Carrier SEER 13 multi-speed with Puron here, circa 2004. Very happy with the system in all respects.
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Aug 01, 2014 7:57 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Central AC replacement decision
Replies: 40
Views: 1328

Re: Bond Fund Question

john94549 wrote:
However, these days, it is best to nibble around the edges, fight for each bps, then relax. Rates will do what rates will do, which is revert to the mean.


Really, says who? To what mean are you referring?
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Aug 01, 2014 7:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Fund Question
Replies: 30
Views: 3296

Re: Bond Fund Question

Scooter57 wrote:Patience!

Rates are rising again and it is quite possible we'll see better CD and money market rates over the next few months.


Hmmm..where have I heard that before? :confused

It's a very safe statement to make, of course, since just about anything is "quite possible."
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Aug 01, 2014 7:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Fund Question
Replies: 30
Views: 3296

Re: Diminishing returns

The noise of what? Both the compressor and blower should be well-isolated from living spaces. It depends. I leave my windows open; my close next door neighbor leaves his AC on all night. It may be isolated for him, but it is not isolated for me. I even have to close my window in my study to hear my...
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Aug 01, 2014 7:28 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Central AC replacement decision
Replies: 40
Views: 1328

Re: All money in TIPs??

Now my question: if you were my adviser, would you not jump in and buy the TIPs ladder now? Welcome opinions and other ideas. You should do what will allow you to sleep well at night. If you have enough so that TIPS with today's real yields will suffice, I see no reason to wait. Real yields may not...
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Aug 01, 2014 6:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: All money in TIPs??
Replies: 17
Views: 1069

Re: Diminishing returns

I would be looking at SEER 14. A lot lower in price. You need to run some numbers Hmm, the quote for the SEER 14 model was $5,900 installed, which is not all that much cheaper than the SEER 17. (And SEER 14 was the noisiest of the three, at 70dB). The noise of what? Both the compressor and blower s...
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Aug 01, 2014 6:30 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Central AC replacement decision
Replies: 40
Views: 1328

Re: Fidelity Customer Protection Guarantee

Article in WSJ today about computer hacking into brokerage accounts. Apparently Fidelity has a 'Customer Protection Guarantee' reimbursing customers for losses from hackers where customer used due care. Wondering if Vanguard has equivalent policy for their accounts? "Due care" is the oper...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Jul 30, 2014 10:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Customer Protection Guarantee
Replies: 24
Views: 1570

Re: Help with a new $5m portfolio for an old lady

retiredjg wrote:
agingkid wrote:2. She needs to live off the dividends.

What does this mean?


My question exactly. This is a common misconception/mistake.
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Jul 30, 2014 7:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with a new $5m portfolio for an old lady
Replies: 59
Views: 4231

Re: Tell me why I shouldn't buy individual muni bonds

Be prepared to buy quite a few, unless you stick to AAA and AA issues. Yes. As I said above, the plan is to buy buy several dozen. I see little downside to buying many. I would ask myself the following question: would I be OK if one of my issues defaulted. If the answer is "yes", then go ...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Jul 29, 2014 11:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tell me why I shouldn't buy individual muni bonds
Replies: 31
Views: 1894

Re: bond duration and interest rate risk

People much smarter than I seem to think that long bonds are good (as in, efficient volatility) for portfolios with very high stock percentages (above 80% or so), intermediate bonds for less. Couple that with the fact that we seldom recommend more than 80% stocks and you've got an explanation for t...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Jul 29, 2014 9:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bond duration and interest rate risk
Replies: 23
Views: 1782

Re: Tell me why I shouldn't buy individual muni bonds

Be prepared to buy quite a few, unless you stick to AAA and AA issues.
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Jul 29, 2014 8:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tell me why I shouldn't buy individual muni bonds
Replies: 31
Views: 1894

Re: why not cash instead of bonds?

As a mid 40's investor with a retirement timeline of about 15 years, here is my question: Why not keep my non stock portion in cash since the 1 year return for total bond is almost -2%? If my fixed income is to serve as a balance to stocks and provide the ability to rebalance on dips, why not go ca...
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Jul 26, 2014 5:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: why not cash instead of bonds?
Replies: 33
Views: 4694

Re: A.C or No A.C?

I like my central AC. I keep the thermostat set to 72-73 when I am in the house during the summer.
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Jul 26, 2014 9:11 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A.C or No A.C?
Replies: 12
Views: 854

Re: Will not using my dishwasher cause problems?

When I purchased my home 10 years ago, I tried to use the dishwasher and it didn't work. I have not tried again in 10 years. I don't need it anyway. If/when I sell the house, I'll just tell them they need a new dishwasher.
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Jul 24, 2014 11:21 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Will not using my dishwasher cause problems?
Replies: 50
Views: 2621

Re: Can it be wrong to be too risk averse?

I give your brother credit for at least putting some thought into this. A typical conversation between me and one of my brothers goes as follows: Brother: I'd like to start investing my money, and I was wondering if you'd be willing to advise me. Me: What is your primary goal for this money. Brother...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Jul 22, 2014 9:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can it be wrong to be too risk averse?
Replies: 49
Views: 2337

Re: P/E Ratio: How do YOU interpret/use it?

When I used to buy individual stocks, I did so based upon PEG ratio - ratio of P/E to EGR. As a Boglehead, I do not time the market so have no use for the P/E ratios.
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Jul 22, 2014 6:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: P/E Ratio: How do YOU interpret/use it?
Replies: 26
Views: 1351

Re: Take the plunge on long term treasuries vs. market timin

And yet, despite my new-found education on this topic, I'm having trouble convincing myself to take the plunge into long term treasuries right now given the imminent end of quantitative easing, the firming US economy, and expectations that interest rates will begin to rise in the second or third qu...
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Jul 21, 2014 12:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Take the plunge on long term treasuries vs. market timing?
Replies: 5
Views: 539

Re: Unlimited Book Subscription vs Amazon Kindle Unlimited

Can you store the ebooks on your Kindle for future reference (i.e., do you own the various e-books), or can you only access them in sequence on a separate access site?
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Jul 20, 2014 11:39 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Unlimited Book Subscription vs Amazon Kindle Unlimited
Replies: 7
Views: 1345

Re: The ultimate Boglehead exercise

sscritic wrote:I am too lazy to move that slowly.


Good one! :wink:
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Jul 19, 2014 4:05 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The ultimate Boglehead exercise
Replies: 30
Views: 3778

Re: Understanding I-bonds & TIPS

I've found the Bogleheads Wiki page on I-Bonds vs. TIPS a useful starting point for this discussion. Note also that because I-Bonds don't have interest rate risk, that includes upside risk as well. In a high-interest rate environment, you couldn't make a quick profit from an unforeseen drop in inte...
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Jul 19, 2014 11:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding I-bonds & TIPS
Replies: 17
Views: 1984

Re: Understanding I-bonds & TIPS

Can you think of a better word to use ... [ than "principal" ] for the interest-paying basis for an I-Bond [ ? ] I would just say "value". But if you want to say "principal" that's cool. The Treasury uses both words: The interest is compounded semiannually. Twice a yea...
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Jul 19, 2014 11:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding I-bonds & TIPS
Replies: 17
Views: 1984

Re: Understanding I-bonds & TIPS

For I Bonds the interest rate itself is adjusted. Since they aren't really bonds -- but more in the nature of a savings account -- it doesn't really make sense to speak of an I Bond's "principal", unless one is just referring to the initial amount purchased. Can you think of a better word...
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Jul 19, 2014 8:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding I-bonds & TIPS
Replies: 17
Views: 1984

Re: Do any bogleheads hold the "Larry Portfolio?"

No, but my equity holdings are relatively small and heavily tilted.
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Jul 19, 2014 7:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do any bogleheads hold the "Larry Portfolio?"
Replies: 18
Views: 2408

Re: Understanding I-bonds & TIPS

This is very simplistic but if the government proposes a "deal" that it limits you in making with it, it is probably a good deal, otherwise, they would let you buy an unlimited amount. So, using that admittedly fractured logic, I Bonds are a better DEAL than TIPS. Yes, we can talk about a...
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Jul 18, 2014 7:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding I-bonds & TIPS
Replies: 17
Views: 1984

Re: Critique draft IPS

I'd be afraid to tilt heavily or at all if I had an 80/20 portfolio. I hope you can stomach ginormous swings in account value.
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Jul 18, 2014 3:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Critique draft IPS
Replies: 6
Views: 657

Re: Understanding I-bonds & TIPS

I've been doing a good bit of reading on I-bonds and TIPS lately, trying to better understanding the differences. I understand that the inflation protection difference between the two is mainly that, for I-bonds, the inflation adjustment is applied to the interest rate, while for TIPS it is applied...
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Jul 18, 2014 12:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding I-bonds & TIPS
Replies: 17
Views: 1984

Re: Larry: 20 Dollar Bills and Factor Persistence

Isn't 40 years a sufficiently long period upon which to make this assessment? 40 years of US only data is not good enough. In the US you need at least 85 years of data to include the Great Depression. You really want to see how assets behave not only in typical times, but during sustained market cr...
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Jul 18, 2014 7:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry: 20 Dollar Bills and Factor Persistence
Replies: 113
Views: 9453

Re: recent brokered CD fluctuation

I own some brokered CD's and have not observed this fluctuation. In any case, I really don't care. That's the nice thing about brokered CD's. The secondary market value can do anything it wants; I know I will not lose a penny. As to OGD's point, I too would prefer treasuries if the interest rates we...
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Jul 18, 2014 6:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: recent brokered CD fluctuation
Replies: 13
Views: 916

Re: Larry: 20 Dollar Bills and Factor Persistence

If SV is riskier, I am still waiting for someone to explain why from 1972-2013, the SD of SV is lower than that of SG (per Simba's data). Isn't 40 years a sufficiently long period upon which to make this assessment?
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Jul 17, 2014 10:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry: 20 Dollar Bills and Factor Persistence
Replies: 113
Views: 9453

Re: Early withdrawal penalty of long-term bank CDs

OP,

I suggest you not invest in one of these unless/until you better understand what they are and how they work.
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Jul 17, 2014 10:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Early withdrawal penalty of long-term bank CDs
Replies: 3
Views: 283

Re: Larry: 20 Dollar Bills and Factor Persistence

acegolfer wrote:
Call_Me_Op wrote:The evidence that I see does not suggest that SV has had higher risk than SG, but has had higher return.


Assuming this past performance continues in the future, one should buy SV but not SG. Correct? Or am I missing something?


Correct.
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Jul 16, 2014 6:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry: 20 Dollar Bills and Factor Persistence
Replies: 113
Views: 9453

Re: Total Bond Market vs Muni

It's OK, as long as you realize that you are taking more somewhat risk with the muni fund.
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Jul 16, 2014 6:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total Bond Market vs Muni
Replies: 6
Views: 1001

Re: BlackRock Diversified Income Portfolio

So let's see; you are relinquishing control (increasing risk) and increasing costs significantly. What exactly are your reasons for doing this? "Converting an asset-based portfolio to an income-based portfolio..." sounds like a nice cliche, but what does it mean other than using a lower al...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Jul 16, 2014 9:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: BlackRock Diversified Income Portfolio
Replies: 6
Views: 624

Re: Help me understand bond funds

Price history does not include reinvested dividends, which help to smooth-out the ride.
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Jul 16, 2014 9:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand bond funds
Replies: 5
Views: 827

Re: Larry: 20 Dollar Bills and Factor Persistence

Here is an interesting discussion of why SCV would be expected to out-perform.

http://www.moneychimp.com/articles/inde ... why_sv.htm
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Jul 16, 2014 9:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry: 20 Dollar Bills and Factor Persistence
Replies: 113
Views: 9453

Re: Larry: 20 Dollar Bills and Factor Persistence

All you need is simple cost of capital story to understand that small value stocks will have higher expected returns by definition---only question is what is the size of the premium, not if it exists, at least ex-ante If it's that simple, can you explain your story without stating that it is by def...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Jul 16, 2014 7:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry: 20 Dollar Bills and Factor Persistence
Replies: 113
Views: 9453

Re: Please advise me on "Brokered CDs"

I have not seen brokered CD's offering YTMs of 4%-5% in over 5 years.
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Jul 16, 2014 6:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please advise me on "Brokered CDs"
Replies: 3
Views: 563

Re: Small cap valuations "appear to be stretched"

I follow my IPS, regardless of news and prognostications.
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Jul 15, 2014 2:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap valuations "appear to be stretched"
Replies: 11
Views: 1390

Re: How do I model 20 yr Treasury portfolio impact?

Duration is the first-derivative of the price versus yield curve. Not to put too fine a point on it, but (modified) duration is not the first derivative of the price with respect to the yield; dollar duration is the first derivative of price with respect to yield. I think you may be putting too fin...
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Jul 14, 2014 12:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do I model 20 yr Treasury portfolio impact?
Replies: 37
Views: 2416

Re: Larry: 20 Dollar Bills and Factor Persistence

@OP, This is the part that I was referring to. Utilizing Larry's analogy, it seems logical that many more people will invest in small-cap value in the future, reducing long-term returns. If that's not your argument, my apologies. Throughout the entire thread, I thought you were using Larry's $20 bi...
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Jul 14, 2014 12:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry: 20 Dollar Bills and Factor Persistence
Replies: 113
Views: 9453

Re: Larry: 20 Dollar Bills and Factor Persistence

acegolfer Premiums do not mean market is inefficient. Beta is a factor and no one argues that because there is beta that markets are inefficient. Now if you have premiums without a risk story that is logical you can then say you think market is inefficient. MOM falls into that category IMO, and it'...
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Jul 14, 2014 10:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry: 20 Dollar Bills and Factor Persistence
Replies: 113
Views: 9453

Re: Larry: 20 Dollar Bills and Factor Persistence

Larry - since value, small, or small value can underperform for years and will do so in the future, and because - as you state - there's no guarantee these premiums will persist in the future - isn't there a prospective dilemma for investors if (when) their factor-based investment allocations stay ...
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Jul 14, 2014 9:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry: 20 Dollar Bills and Factor Persistence
Replies: 113
Views: 9453

Re: Larry: 20 Dollar Bills and Factor Persistence

Expected returns are not the same as returns - I underlined the relevant portion of your earlier post. I am aware of that - which is why I clarified in my follow-up. If risk is taken to mean standard deviation of returns (as common per academics), then we can specify neither risk or return in the f...
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Jul 14, 2014 8:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry: 20 Dollar Bills and Factor Persistence
Replies: 113
Views: 9453

Re: Larry: 20 Dollar Bills and Factor Persistence

OP, Is this your argument? Since factor SV premiums have been persistent, the market is inefficient? (Sorry, if I have misinterpreted.) If yes, then what about market premium? If market is efficient, are you suggesting the market premium should not be persistent because there's no free lunch? I am ...
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Jul 14, 2014 7:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry: 20 Dollar Bills and Factor Persistence
Replies: 113
Views: 9453

Re: [Poll] Are you more risk averse than average?

In the experience of most people, the stock market has always recovered (to go even higher) after a crash. Thus, they do not see it as risky. To me, risk tolerance is the ability to comfortably withstand the permanent loss of net worth. I don't think many people have high risk tolerance by that defi...
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Jul 14, 2014 6:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] Are you more risk averse than average?
Replies: 36
Views: 2648

Re: Brokered CD's vs Bonds

I have never purchased or sold individual bonds. While brokered CDs are much like bonds, there are some differences (as best I understand). At least with Vanguard Brokerage Services, if you sell a bond, depending on factors including the amount you are selling, you probably will not get anything cl...
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Jul 14, 2014 6:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brokered CD's vs Bonds
Replies: 24
Views: 2679

Re: Larry: 20 Dollar Bills and Factor Persistence

OP, Is this your argument? Since factor SV premiums have been persistent, the market is inefficient? (Sorry, if I have misinterpreted.) If yes, then what about market premium? If market is efficient, are you suggesting the market premium should not be persistent because there's no free lunch? I am ...
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Jul 14, 2014 6:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry: 20 Dollar Bills and Factor Persistence
Replies: 113
Views: 9453

Re: Will you change your AA based on market performance?

To me, the whole idea of strategic asset allocation is to pick an AA that you can stick with regardless of market conditions.
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Jul 14, 2014 6:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In a crash, will you re-balance to maintain your target AA?
Replies: 64
Views: 4170
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