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Re: Left tail portfolio - 70% bonds. Good idea?

Vanguard's Total Bond market fund shows it is up YTD 3.63%. That sounds pretty good to me, what am I missing, "Bogleheads"? You are missing that this means nothing. Bond prices fluctuate over the short term, but the best estimate of forward-looking return is current yield. And that yield ...
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Sep 19, 2014 6:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Left tail portfolio - 70% bonds. Good idea?
Replies: 35
Views: 2590

Re: PFIC Pain at Taxtime

I'm a bit surprised, though, that the QEF election can be used in that case to convert a collectibles gain into a regular capital gain. Is that really kosher? My understanding is that it is kosher, and I know that some of the Permanent Portfolio folks do this. I believe it is even stated on the web...
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Sep 19, 2014 6:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: PFIC Pain at Taxtime [Passive Foreign Investment Company]
Replies: 8
Views: 529

Re: PFIC Pain at Taxtime

Hi Karamatsu,

Thanks for the reply. It seems that few people have experience in this area. I find this surprising, since there is a huge tax advantage if you are taxed at LTCG rates versus collectibles rates.
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Sep 18, 2014 12:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: PFIC Pain at Taxtime [Passive Foreign Investment Company]
Replies: 8
Views: 529

Re: Retiree Next Door

Ron wrote:
Call_Me_Op wrote:<snip...>So I would guess that we Bogleheads over-save compared to what is actually required.

"You can never be too rich or too thin."


Not sure I agree with the "too thin" part. :)
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Sep 18, 2014 11:20 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retiree Next Door
Replies: 26
Views: 4243

Re: Holding Cash because Tried to time Market

1.) Take the time to devise a plan.
2.) Invest half of your cash immediately, as defined by the plan.
3.) DCA the rest over the next several years.

Using this approach, you have a solid plan, you participate in the markets, but you don't go all in at one time.
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Sep 18, 2014 11:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Holding Cash because Tried to time Market
Replies: 76
Views: 5524

Re: Retiree Next Door

I will say this; the retirees I have seen first hand (my parents, grandparents, and an uncle) live comfortably on social security and very meager savings. For example, my parents do just fine on modest social-security checks and a very small pension may dad receives (less than $800/month). They have...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Sep 18, 2014 8:21 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retiree Next Door
Replies: 26
Views: 4243

PFIC Pain at Taxtime [Passive Foreign Investment Company]

Can someone provide a first-hand account for how much hassle is associated with owning a PFIC (e.g., GTU) in a taxable account? Apparently, to qualify for favorable tax treatment (gains taxed as capital gains), you can fill-out IRS form 8621 and convert the PFIC (Passive Foreign Investment Company) ...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Sep 18, 2014 7:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: PFIC Pain at Taxtime [Passive Foreign Investment Company]
Replies: 8
Views: 529

Re: Jason's Zweig's new dictionary ---enjoy

Impressive! This represent a tremendous amount of work.
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Sep 18, 2014 6:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jason's Zweig's new dictionary ---enjoy
Replies: 27
Views: 2338

Re: Left tail portfolio - 70% bonds. Good idea?

As I have stated in the past, the LP is just one example of a more general class of portfolio designs that take more risk with a smaller portion of the portfolio. For example, rather than all SCV, the risky portion could simply be a tilted broadly-diversified equity allocation. In addition, the safe...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Sep 18, 2014 6:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Left tail portfolio - 70% bonds. Good idea?
Replies: 35
Views: 2590

Re: Will Bill Gross beat the Total Bond Market Index?

I have no problem with active funds - as long as their expenses are comparable to index funds.
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Sep 17, 2014 7:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Will Bill Gross beat the Total Bond Market Index?
Replies: 38
Views: 3755

Re: BEWARE - Phony IRS call from 202-750-1631

Got a similar call about a month ago. A woman claiming to be an IRS agent threatened that if I did not call back immediately they would take "legal allegations" against me.
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Sep 17, 2014 7:39 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: BEWARE - Phony IRS call from 202-750-1631
Replies: 16
Views: 1691

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

Note: All of my comments above are related to indexing versus active management of equities. I understand that the original question is broader than this.

As far as a mix of stocks and bonds being "optimal", I'm not sure we can make that statement even today.
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Sep 16, 2014 12:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 99
Views: 5879

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

The basic laws of mathematics would have to be proven incorrect? Is the assumption that exponential economic growth can continue forever valid? Especially if population stops growing exponentially? I'm not saying the assumption might not be valid, but I'm not 100% convinced we can just assume that ...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Sep 16, 2014 12:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 99
Views: 5879

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

The basic laws of mathematics would have to be proven incorrect? There is a non-zero possibility of this occurring though. It's not that 1+1 would cease to equal 2. But that we may discover that the mathematical construct of "1 + 1" simply doesn't reflect anything in reality as nothing is...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Sep 16, 2014 12:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 99
Views: 5879

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

The basic laws of mathematics would have to be proven incorrect? +1 It's not a mentality - it's mathematical fact. Consider millions of talented people, all trading with one another. The average trader will have average performance MINUS his trading costs - by definition. If you hire an average-per...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Sep 16, 2014 11:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 99
Views: 5879

Re: Tiny house movement.

The title of this thread leaves something to be desired. Before reading the details, I thought is was related to a tiny amount of settling of the foundation of your home.

Update: Thanks to moderator for updating title.
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Sep 16, 2014 10:56 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [can my family live in a] Tiny house
Replies: 55
Views: 3524

Re: Young Guy, Probably Not Going To Live A Long Time

I have a friend whose dad was discharged from the military at age 21 due to a heart condition. He was told he had 6 months to live. This was circa 1943. He passed away 3 years ago, at the age of 89.
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Sep 16, 2014 8:51 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Young Guy, Probably Not Going To Live A Long Time
Replies: 30
Views: 4264

Re: treating all investment accounts as one pool of money

I hold two completely separate portfolios. 1.) A taxable portfolio to cover post-work expenses prior to age 70. I could start drawing on this tomorrow, or it could be many years. 2.) A 401k to cover expenses after age 70, in conjunction with social security. The 401k is invested more aggressively, s...
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Sep 15, 2014 12:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: treating all investment accounts as one pool of money
Replies: 26
Views: 2279

Re: Randomly-weighted stock portfolios beat the index

We compare the risk-adjusted performance of the market index with the performance of a large number of random buy-and-hold portfolios. The weights in each of these portfolios are randomly drawn at the beginning of the period, and from that time onwards the portfolio is held passively. Namely, each ...
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Sep 15, 2014 10:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Randomly-weighted stock portfolios beat the index
Replies: 28
Views: 1985

Re: Key to happintess in retirement.

This is somewhat disenchanting, from my standpoint. You only have so much control over your health - regardless of what you may believe. Genetics plays a huge role.
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Sep 15, 2014 8:28 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Key to happiness in retirement
Replies: 36
Views: 3658

Re: What to do with current home if we purchase new one

Being a landlord involves significant headaches and increased liability. Personally, I would want nothing to do with it. I would sell the current place after doing the minimal amount to spruce it up.
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Sep 14, 2014 8:31 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What to do with current home if we purchase new one
Replies: 5
Views: 922

Re: Why do so many think their home is a foolproof investmen

Let me live in something that keeps pace with inflation and I will be quite pleased.
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Sep 13, 2014 12:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do so many think their home is a foolproof investment?
Replies: 125
Views: 6332

Re: Buying CDs

The lack of interest compounding (interest accruing to the principal of the CD) is the biggest drawback to investing in brokered CDs. You can always take the interest and throw it into a bond fund. Once it reaches a thousand bucks, you can buy another CD (same CUSIP) on the secondary market if you ...
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Sep 13, 2014 8:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buying CDs
Replies: 30
Views: 3413

Re: The dangerous practice of rebalancing...

I think that generally, rebalancing is an excellent practice. However, and particularly for those with enough SAFE assets, I see no problem with foregoing rebalancing into risky assets when doing so will cause SAFE assets to fall below a floor needed to sustain you through retirement or some otherwi...
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Sep 13, 2014 8:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dangerous practice of rebalancing...
Replies: 182
Views: 12009

Re: Angry when stock market is down

Does anyone else get angry/edgy/cranky on days where the stock market is down? In the last couple of days, I find little things "set me off". But maybe it could also be other factors in my life. For instance, it's annoying to see REITs down 1.8% today. I won't sell, but I'm just annoyed. ...
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Sep 12, 2014 11:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Angry when stock market is down
Replies: 79
Views: 3950

Re: What should be Shredded

stevep001 wrote:I put mine in the shred box at work.


Thought of this, but felt I might get in trouble (very small chance but non-zero).
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Sep 12, 2014 11:36 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What should be Shredded
Replies: 18
Views: 1413

Re: Neighborhood kid around 13 throwing rocks at my house

For those trying to understand why a 13 year old would do this - don't bother. This does not mean he will be a hardened criminal. His brain is undergoing many changes at this time. As I said above, kids that age do crazy things and then most of the time grow-up to be fine citizens. I would handle t...
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Sep 12, 2014 9:18 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Neighborhood kid around 13 throwing rocks at my house
Replies: 55
Views: 3067

Re: Individual Stocks

Most people here do not invest in individual stocks in any significant way. The reason is it doesn't make sense from a risk-adjusted return perspective. Said differently, you are taking a lot of additional risk (compared to index funds) for which you are not compensated by greater expected return. O...
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Sep 12, 2014 9:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Individual Stocks
Replies: 31
Views: 2155

Re: Neighborhood kid around 13 throwing rocks at my house

For those trying to understand why a 13 year old would do this - don't bother. This does not mean he will be a hardened criminal. His brain is undergoing many changes at this time. As I said above, kids that age do crazy things and then most of the time grow-up to be fine citizens. I would handle th...
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Sep 12, 2014 8:17 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Neighborhood kid around 13 throwing rocks at my house
Replies: 55
Views: 3067

Re: Neighborhood kid around 13 throwing rocks at my house

Call or visit his parents. He will stop after that.

Kids that age often do crazy things - often out of plain boredom. I don't think it's necessary to get the police involved.
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Sep 12, 2014 6:17 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Neighborhood kid around 13 throwing rocks at my house
Replies: 55
Views: 3067

Re: What type of assets can a lawyer see that you have?

I was once told (by a lawyer) that it is very easy for someone to find-out your account balance in any bank where you hold a checking account.
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Sep 11, 2014 6:45 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What type of assets can a lawyer see that you have?
Replies: 32
Views: 3985

What should be Shredded

I have become inundated with statements of various types and need to get rid of some of it. This includes investment statements, receipts associated with various bills, insurance policies, etc. Shredding all of this would be a monumental task. What absolutely should be shredded? I'd like to throw mu...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Sep 10, 2014 8:12 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What should be Shredded
Replies: 18
Views: 1413

Re: ow Does Paying Off a Mortgage Affect Your Credit Score

I did not see a noticeable change. if anything, it dropped slightly.
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Sep 10, 2014 6:35 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: ow Does Paying Off a Mortgage Affect Your Credit Score
Replies: 16
Views: 1465

Re: 5-year TIPS real yield goes positive!

I just noticed that, for the first time in months, the real yield on the 5-year TIPS has now gone positive. All the way up to 0.05 percent. Perhaps it's time to quit buying those I bonds? I think you are comparing apples to oranges. I-Bonds have other advantages, such as tax-deferral and deflation ...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Sep 10, 2014 6:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5-year TIPS real yield goes positive!
Replies: 6
Views: 1107

Re: Protecting your investments

johnnybh wrote:1) So a what level of net worth do you need to have umbrella insurance?


Any level if you have a salary. Salaries can be attached in a civil lawsuit.
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Sep 10, 2014 6:22 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Protecting your investments
Replies: 11
Views: 1405

Re: 50 year old looking for retirement advice & help...

50 is the new 40. I keep hearing this slogan - but I don't buy it. In fact, the facts do not support it. We are more sedentary (in general) and less robust than our ancestors were at the same age. Life expectancy once you have made it to age 21 has not changed much in the past century. What skews t...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Sep 10, 2014 6:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 50 year old looking for retirement advice & help...
Replies: 15
Views: 2000

Re: need help choosing options at TIAA-CREF

TREA does direct ownership of Commercial Real Estate. So it's not a REIT and not a bond. It's a separate asset class. Change in the TREA NAV is due to two components, rental income and appraised value of the owned properties... Are you saying it is not a stock either? He said it is direct ownership...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Sep 09, 2014 8:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: need help choosing options at TIAA-CREF
Replies: 34
Views: 1514

Re: So far, so good? Vanguard Total International Bond

When Vanguard launched their Total International Bond Fund, it was supposed to be a yawner, with its currency hedging, but it also has a higher ER than Vanguard Total Bond Market. Then, there was some griping about Vanguard putting allocations of Total International Bond in their LifeStrategy Funds...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Sep 07, 2014 2:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So far, so good? Vanguard Total International Bond
Replies: 44
Views: 3847

Re: Portfolio Advice Needed $1M age 40

I would never want to put my portfolio in an AA recommended by someone else. I suggest that you continue your reading and pondering, and then start writing an Investment Policy Statement to guide construction and maintenance of your portfolio.
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Sep 07, 2014 2:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Advice Needed $1M age 40
Replies: 18
Views: 2039

Re: Vanguard Lost $50k

The most disturbing part of this is that Vanguard did not immediately reassure you that you will be reimbursed in full if the money was somehow lost on their end.
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Sep 07, 2014 9:49 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vanguard Lost $50k
Replies: 103
Views: 10717

Re: Considering divesting international position...

Hey guys, I currently have 25,000 in Roth IRA Vanguard Total International Stock Market (VGTSX) (admiral shares). Looking at the performance since inception, it's a little over 5%. However, the performance of Total Stock Market is over 9% (granted, Total Stock Market has been around a lot longer th...
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Sep 06, 2014 5:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Considering divesting international position...
Replies: 12
Views: 589

Re: Principal Protection

It's too bad Vanguard's treasury-only MM fund is still closed. That would fit the bill nicely for what he is looking for.
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Sep 06, 2014 10:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Principal Protection
Replies: 44
Views: 2028

Re: Principal Protection

Short-term CD's and short-term treasuries. I don't do ETFs. I just used index funds, and put a bunch of my income there until I hit my target. I mostly used total market, S&P, dividend appreciation... pretty much all index funds. I don't even have a brokerage account, and I think I'd need that ...
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Sep 05, 2014 4:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Principal Protection
Replies: 44
Views: 2028

Re: Principal Protection

Short-term CD's and short-term treasuries.
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Sep 05, 2014 2:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Principal Protection
Replies: 44
Views: 2028

Re: Own individual stocks? Advisor recommends 20% in blue ch

Why should individual stocks appreciate more? The one thing we do know is that a small group of individual stocks is much riskier than an index fund. But that risk is not compensated by an increase in expected return. This is the fundamental argument against individual stocks. This is the fundament...
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Own individual stocks? Advisor recommends 20% in blue chips?
Replies: 38
Views: 2651

Re: Warning level

I have no idea what you are talking about. If you sign in to Bogleheads and click on User Control Panel you go to the Overview tab - Front Page. On the Front Page there is a Your Activity section block prominently displayed. Within the block it shows the following: When you joined When you last vis...
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:34 am
 
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Warning level
Replies: 39
Views: 2265

Re: What risk-return really means

Rodc,

That is correct. That's why I view SD as one "aspect" of risk. There are many other aspects - or dimensions if you will - such as max draw-down (which can cause capitulation), etc.
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What risk-return really means
Replies: 41
Views: 2329

Re: What risk-return really means

Any good discussion on risk should include a good definition. We know that standard deviation of returns is not a good definition of risk. Standard deviation is not a definition of risk. Standard deviation is a measure of risk. See my signature for the definition of financial risk. BobK I don't thi...
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What risk-return really means
Replies: 41
Views: 2329

Re: Warning level

I have no idea what you are talking about.
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Sep 05, 2014 8:59 am
 
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Warning level
Replies: 39
Views: 2265

Re: Why no more Vanguards

I don't think the OP is asking why more fund companies do not offer index funds. He is asking why there are not more share-holder owned companies - who also feature exclusively low-cost funds.
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Sep 05, 2014 8:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why no more Vanguards
Replies: 36
Views: 4858
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