Search found 5286 matches

by Call_Me_Op
Mon Aug 03, 2015 5:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Houston, we have a problem... [Small cap historical performance]
Replies: 44
Views: 2872

Re: Houston, we have a problem... [Small cap historical performance]

One of the interesting things about the smallcap "premium" is how much the questioning of it has started up after a long-period of small cap *outpeformance.* Usually you see a lot of additional interest in asset classes/sub-classes after such outperformance, with a lot of academic/sophist...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Aug 02, 2015 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Everybody is sick of gold - Is now the time to buy??
Replies: 32
Views: 3637

Re: Everybody is sick of gold - Is now the time to buy??

I'm still waiting for someone to explain to me why gold does not conform to the usual rule of risk being related to expected return. Here we have an asset with enormous volatility and an expected return of about zero. Risk is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for higher than short-term tre...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Aug 02, 2015 6:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Could John Bogle Be Right About International Stock?
Replies: 68
Views: 6119

Re: Could John Bogle Be Right About International Stock?

Now maybe if if I was really good at picking international stocks and knew all the ins and outs of all those different countries markets I would would invest in them. But I am not, if I was I would probably run my own fund. No I have to rely on funds, and I have not seen any long term international...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Aug 02, 2015 6:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Everybody is sick of gold - Is now the time to buy??
Replies: 32
Views: 3637

Re: Everybody is sick of gold - Is now the time to buy??

I'm still waiting for someone to explain to me why gold does not conform to the usual rule of risk being related to expected return. Here we have an asset with enormous volatility and an expected return of about zero.
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Aug 02, 2015 6:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Everybody is sick of gold - Is now the time to buy??
Replies: 32
Views: 3637

Re: Everybody is sick of gold - Is now the time to buy??

cfs wrote:Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund (VGPMX)
YTD: -19.77%
1 yr: -37.02%
3 yr: -20.67%
5 yr: -15.15%
10yr: -02.50%
Since inception 05/23/1984: 03.49%


...but this is not gold, it's gold mining companies.
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Jul 31, 2015 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Could John Bogle Be Right About International Stock?
Replies: 68
Views: 6119

Re: Could John Bogle Be Right About International Stock?

The push for international is nothing more than a search for growth in my opinion, the US looks to be slowing, with a stronger dollar and rising intrest rates that will weigh on US exports. I strongly disagree. Step back and look at the big picture. There are over 46 countries in which one can inve...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Jul 30, 2015 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Could John Bogle Be Right About International Stock?
Replies: 68
Views: 6119

Re: Could John Bogle Be Right About International Stock?

I've heard the arguments from all of the professionals that allocating a portion of your portfolio to International stocks is a good thing. It prevents recency bias (think Japan) plus International Stocks did provide better returns than U.S. stocks between the dot com crash and the crash of 2008-20...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Jul 30, 2015 9:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Priorities
Replies: 52
Views: 4178

Re: Priorities

Good post, Protagonist. One thing you did not mention is genetics, which exerts a huge influence on this sort of thing. One can live a very healthy lifestyle but this doesn't guarantee that one will live into their 90's.
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Jul 28, 2015 11:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Divorce [financial implications]
Replies: 72
Views: 6789

Re: Divorce

I am not a lawyer, but I am not sure they deserve all the blame for making the process contentious. Divorce lawyers have a conflict of interest; they make more money when the divorce is contentious. Perhaps they do not deserve "all" of the blame, but I don't think there is any question th...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Jul 28, 2015 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is stock market so reactionary to news on daily basis?
Replies: 46
Views: 2792

Re: Why is stock market so reactionary to news on daily basis?

Sometimes I just shake my head and wonder how I can keep my money in something that appears to be greatly impacted by so many elements and so many agendas. You are missing the big picture. In the short-term, stocks prices are driven almost wholly by speculation; thus the wide gyrations. Over the lo...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Jul 28, 2015 8:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Divorce [financial implications]
Replies: 72
Views: 6789

Re: Divorce

Unfortunately, marriage today is a business contract. Think of it differently at your own peril.
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Jul 27, 2015 6:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Slice and Dice: why not?
Replies: 84
Views: 4656

Re: Slice and Dice: why not?

In case I confused everybody, what I'm saying is that past returns are about the worst forecast you can make for future returns. If over some past period, P1 returned 10.25% and P2 returned 11.04%, then concluding that P2 will return more than P1 in the future is just naive. For bonds, forecast ret...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Jul 26, 2015 3:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vanguard Account Hacked
Replies: 22
Views: 2699

Re: Vanguard Account Hacked

slowmoney wrote:Since this is a public forum, I really do not want disclose all the details.

Basically, unknown people were accessing my accounts, I was not accessing my accounts.


I assume that Vanguard is investigating.
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Jul 26, 2015 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Slice and Dice: why not?
Replies: 84
Views: 4656

Re: Slice and Dice: why not?

So if i were young I might be tempted to market weight toward small cap or mid cap, if I were 50 or older I would not bother. Due to the complexity of slice and dice you really don't want to be managing this when you are older, or leaving the task to a spouse who has no real interest in personal fi...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Jul 26, 2015 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Slice and Dice: why not?
Replies: 84
Views: 4656

Re: Slice and Dice: why not?

The best way to assess whether "slicing and dicing" (within limits) makes sense is to use data over a very long time period. Paul Merriman has compiled data going back almost 90 years, and his data suggests that a balanced portfolio (so-called slicing and dicing) has added 2 points to CAGR...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Jul 26, 2015 7:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50/50 asset allocation
Replies: 69
Views: 5778

Re: 50/50 asset allocation

You can split 50-50 between Wellesley and Wellington to average 50/50 stocks/bonds. Two funds ain't that hard.
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Jul 26, 2015 7:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time to Abandon the Larry Portfolio?
Replies: 12
Views: 2418

Re: Time to Abandon the Larry Portfolio?

Removed post due to non-applicability.
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Jul 26, 2015 6:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Protection against stock correctiom
Replies: 25
Views: 2475

Re: Protection against stock correctiom

mpt follower wrote:For the sake of argument, let us say that it is just a matter of time before a correction (i.e., at least 10%). Has anyone done research on the type of stocks that would provide highest protection relative to the total market?


Bonds
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Jul 24, 2015 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10-Year TIPS Auction July 23 2015
Replies: 29
Views: 2781

Re: 10-Year TIPS Auction July 23 2015

abuss368 wrote:Are TIPS popular anymore with inflation expectations so low?


What do inflation expectations have to do with unexpected inflation (the reason for TIPS)?
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Jul 24, 2015 7:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Performance review for Boss!
Replies: 20
Views: 2220

Re: Performance review for Boss!

I have never heard of this. If it isn't anonymous, I would just tell him he is great and his only fault is that he works too hard, and as a result you worry about his health.
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Jul 24, 2015 7:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead portfolio in a negative interest rate environment
Replies: 18
Views: 2041

Re: Boglehead portfolio in a negative interest rate environment

galeno wrote:Loose cash can be dangerous.


Please explain what you mean.
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Jul 24, 2015 6:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cap weight maximum diversification?
Replies: 46
Views: 2373

Re: Cap weight maximum diversification?

On one hand by cap weighting you aren't "over-weighting" any stocks or asset classes. From this perspective it seems like you get maximum diversification. I am glad that you put "over-weighting" in quotes, as it is not at all clear to me why market capitalization should define t...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Jul 22, 2015 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does how often you check your portfolio correlate with returns
Replies: 35
Views: 2664

Re: Does how often you check your portfolio correlate with returns

Indeed. That's a really great thing about investing. You set-up your portfolio properly and then you really don't need to tinker with it. In fact, you are better off spending your time doing something else - anything.
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Jul 19, 2015 7:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Philosophical HVAC Question: When to Replace AC/furnace
Replies: 24
Views: 1795

Re: Philosophical HVAC Question: When to Replace AC/furnace

happyjuice8000 wrote:Is it worth replacing the HVAC systems NOW because I know I will eventually have to replace them? Or should I wait until they die?


I'd wait until it dies. My radon pump supposedly has a 5 year service life and it is still going strong after 12 years. And when you do it, do it in fall or winter.
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Jul 18, 2015 6:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What 2008/09 has done to me
Replies: 158
Views: 18801

Re: What 2008/09 has done to me

Barefootgirl wrote:Disclosure: I'm in the ninth inning of the employment game. Easy for me to say, but my observations and experience track closely to what has been written above by 2015. It's good to be on the far side now.


Indeed. I like 2015's post above. It hits home.
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Jul 18, 2015 6:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any reason to hold short-term bonds with a long-term horizon?
Replies: 29
Views: 2532

Re: Any reason to hold short-term bonds with a long-term horizon?

If you buy a long term bond you lock in a higher yield for a long period. The only reason to buy short term bonds is if you need liquidity. If you don't need liquidity, short term bonds can still be advantageous if you have inside tips from the Fed on when interest rates will move. Incomplete state...
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Jul 17, 2015 6:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any reason to hold short-term bonds with a long-term horizon?
Replies: 29
Views: 2532

Re: Any reason to hold short-term bonds with a long-term horizon?

If you buy a long term bond you lock in a higher yield for a long period. The only reason to buy short term bonds is if you need liquidity. If you don't need liquidity, short term bonds can still be advantageous if you have inside tips from the Fed on when interest rates will move. Incomplete state...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Jul 16, 2015 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: All Eggs in One Basket?
Replies: 20
Views: 2391

Re: All Eggs in One Basket?

I am a fan of custodial diversification. The possibility of a "single-point failure" in my finances would not allow me to sleep at night.
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Jul 16, 2015 6:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does Anyone Plan to Work Past 70 years of Age
Replies: 63
Views: 5509

Re: Does Anyone Plan to Work Past 70 years of Age

"God laughs at the best laid plans."
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Jul 16, 2015 6:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 20 yr review of Mel's Unloved Midcaps
Replies: 19
Views: 2078

Re: 20 yr review of Mel's Unloved Midcaps

Surprise! There are small and value premiums after all.
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Jul 14, 2015 6:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you calculate the expected earnings of the stock market?
Replies: 21
Views: 1548

Re: How do you calculate the expected earnings of the stock market?

i am interested in calculating the expected earnings of the stock market so that I can devise a strategic asset allocation that compares the expected earnings on stocks to the expected earnings (i.e. current yield) on bonds and then overweights the asset with the stronger earnings. Step one is to l...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Jul 14, 2015 6:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Builder wants to put a retaining wall on my property
Replies: 52
Views: 4572

Re: Builder wants to put a retaining wall on my property

I would be very nervous about the part where you are responsible for maintaining the wall in the future. Retaining walls are extremely expensive. I had one fail (a small one) a few years after I moved into my house, and it cost me $12k to replace - not to mention a lot of aggravation. I have seen th...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Jul 14, 2015 5:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whatever happened to the advocates of CDs vs Bonds?
Replies: 58
Views: 5615

Re: Whatever happened to the advocates of CDs vs Bonds?

When "everyone" knew interest rates were going to rise, there was a lot of talk about CDs being better than bonds/bond funds. Some people moved to CDs and some totally lazy people like me thought about it, but did not. How do you feel your decision went? Anyone thinking of moving into CDs...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Jul 12, 2015 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Portfolio Shortfall
Replies: 37
Views: 2694

Re: Larry Portfolio Shortfall

Larry explains repeatedly that the LP can have a large tracking error. Why is this a surprise? It is intended to work only over very long time periods and not intended to be compared to a conventional portfolio over short periods.
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Jul 12, 2015 8:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Password Management
Replies: 56
Views: 2942

Re: Password Management

Keep a plain text file of usernames and passwords but encrypt it with truecrypt. The computing resources necessary to break that encryption are immense. Far stronger than your passwords. I have used Veracrypt a little in the past. One concern is that you need to decrypt the file while you are editi...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Jul 12, 2015 8:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Password Management
Replies: 56
Views: 2942

Re: Password Management

62andret wrote:I use a spreadsheet that is in an encrypted disk image.

Over the years, I have tried many different methods, but kept coming back to this.


Is this something that can be done using Veracrypt?
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Jul 12, 2015 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond funds: coupon and yield
Replies: 22
Views: 1465

Re: Bond funds: coupon and yield

deepvalleys wrote:Hi.

I am trying to understand bond funds.

So here is a question. What happens with a bond fund when the interest rate goes up?


the price (NAV) goes down, the average coupon remains the same, and the yield increases. A bond fund is nothing more than a basket of individual bonds.
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Jul 12, 2015 7:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Password Management
Replies: 56
Views: 2942

Password Management

I did bring this up in the OPM thread, but felt that the topic is worthy of a new/separate thread. We all have many passwords for the various sites we access and are told we should regularly change them. We are also told that the passwords should be strong, which means they are difficult to remember...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Jul 12, 2015 6:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: OPM breach and credit freeze
Replies: 194
Views: 17172

Re: OPM breach and credit freeze

Identity info, big lists of card numbers are on the Internet and very cheap. It's still usually a felony regardless of how "cheap" identity or credit info is. Likewise you can buy a cheap handgun and there are plenty of gas stations but 35 years in the slammer for armed robbery is the rub...
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Jul 11, 2015 4:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: OPM breach and credit freeze
Replies: 194
Views: 17172

Re: OPM breach and credit freeze

I don't think identity theft is at all supply limited. So from that perspective, the more hacks the better. 100 lions and 20,000,000 zebras is a better situation than 100 lions and 2000 zebras (if you are a zebra). I think you may be missing the constant tension between supply and demand. If ID the...
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Jul 11, 2015 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If You Slice and Dice
Replies: 22
Views: 2979

Re: If You Slice and Dice

Slice and dice has nothing to do with tinkering. You define an asset allocation and stick with it.
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Jul 11, 2015 12:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: OPM breach and credit freeze
Replies: 194
Views: 17172

Re: OPM breach and credit freeze

The attackers got a whole lot of your personal information. They didn't get passwords, but they did get: social security numbers, addresses, work history, mother's maiden name and so on. Changing security question answers makes a lot more sense. They did get the passwords for the EQIP website that ...
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Jul 11, 2015 12:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: OPM breach and credit freeze
Replies: 194
Views: 17172

Re: OPM breach and credit freeze

Ybsybs wrote:The attackers got a whole lot of your personal information. They didn't get passwords, but they did get: social security numbers, addresses, work history, mother's maiden name and so on. Changing security question answers makes a lot more sense.


Yes, but I asked about password.
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Jul 11, 2015 7:04 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: OPM breach and credit freeze
Replies: 194
Views: 17172

Re: OPM breach and credit freeze

VictoriaF wrote:I used this opportunity to change my Vanguard password and security questions.


I am also a presumed victim of this attack. But I am confused why changing your Vanguard password would help anything. The hackers didn't get your Vanguard password. Please help me understand your reasoning.
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Jul 11, 2015 6:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you do the Larry Portfolio?
Replies: 48
Views: 3703

Re: How do you do the Larry Portfolio?

rustymutt wrote:Very slowly, and cautiously. I want an advisor if I go that route at all. Someone besides myself to rattle if a mistake is made.


If you feel this way, I would argue that you do not understand or believe in the approach, and therefore should not be doing it at all - with or without an advisor.
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Jul 10, 2015 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle vs. the Bogleheads
Replies: 49
Views: 4009

Re: John Bogle vs. the Bogleheads

After I found Bogleheads, it took me a long time to realize that all the embroidery on the fringes (tilting, factoring, market timing) is really just noise. Is this opinion based upon specific research you can point to? I don't like market timing, but there is a view that a total market index fund ...
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Jul 10, 2015 6:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle vs. the Bogleheads
Replies: 49
Views: 4009

Re: John Bogle vs. the Bogleheads

After I found Bogleheads, it took me a long time to realize that all the embroidery on the fringes (tilting, factoring, market timing) is really just noise. Is this opinion based upon specific research you can point to? I don't like market timing, but there is a view that a total market index fund ...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Jul 08, 2015 6:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Vanguard's recommended international allocation."
Replies: 63
Views: 6711

Re: "Vanguard's recommended international allocation."

I wonder if Vanguard is headed to a 50/50 allocation over the next few years. The costs continue to decline. I am already there - and have been for 10 years. Easy to maintain and rebalance? Very easy. Why wouldn't it be? How much effort does it take to rebalance a few funds on rare occasions? Excel...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Jul 07, 2015 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Vanguard's recommended international allocation."
Replies: 63
Views: 6711

Re: "Vanguard's recommended international allocation."

abuss368 wrote:
Call_Me_Op wrote:
abuss368 wrote:I wonder if Vanguard is headed to a 50/50 allocation over the next few years. The costs continue to decline.


I am already there - and have been for 10 years.


Easy to maintain and rebalance?


Very easy. Why wouldn't it be? How much effort does it take to rebalance a few funds on rare occasions?

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