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Re: Why are total bond market funds so often recommended?

I find myself pulled in both directions with bonds. On the one hand, I think: "If I wanted more risk, I'll buy more stocks, not more risky bonds." On the other hand, I think: "I don't understand bonds at all. So why not just own all of them?" Larry Swedroe believes 5 yrs is the ...
by Bustoff
Wed Apr 16, 2014 1:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are total bond market funds so often recommended?
Replies: 52
Views: 4200

Re: Why are total bond market funds so often recommended?

On the plus side, Morningstar shows TBF has an Average Effective Duration of 5.47 years

http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/summary?t=vbmfx
by Bustoff
Wed Apr 16, 2014 11:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are total bond market funds so often recommended?
Replies: 52
Views: 4200

Re: You don't want to be member of the hedge fund club

Consider yourself warned when the founder of a hedge fund advises the public to "go with Jack Bogle" rather than his own hedge fund. (AQR managed more than $98.8 billion as of Dec. 31) However, he very clearly said that if you had to choose between a strategy of stock picking, timing and ...
by Bustoff
Wed Apr 16, 2014 11:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You don't want to be member of the hedge fund club
Replies: 13
Views: 2102

Re: What is your net worth

InvestorNewb wrote:I question the folks who selected 50m and 100m.


It's Bogle and Larimore, in that order !
by Bustoff
Wed Apr 16, 2014 10:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your net worth
Replies: 37
Views: 5333

Re: Correction

Total Bond Markets diversification is beginning to look like a double-edged sword in terms of duration risk. Distribution by maturity (% of fund) as of 03/31/2014 5 - 10 Years - 35.4% 10 - 20 Years - 5.2% 20 - 30 Years - 10.5% Over 30 Years - 0.4% Bustoff: Your figures do not add to 100%. These are...
by Bustoff
Wed Apr 16, 2014 10:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are total bond market funds so often recommended?
Replies: 52
Views: 4200

Re: Why are total bond market funds so often recommended?

Isn't it supposed to represent the bond market as a whole - which includes long-term bonds? I wasn't sure how to interpret your comment about it being a "double-edged sword." I was just expressing some personal angst (which may be misplaced) about the interest-rate risk associated with th...
by Bustoff
Wed Apr 16, 2014 9:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are total bond market funds so often recommended?
Replies: 52
Views: 4200

Re: Why are total bond market funds so often recommended?

Total Bond Markets diversification is beginning to look like a double-edged sword in terms of duration risk. Distribution by maturity (% of fund) as of 03/31/2014 5 - 10 Years - 35.4% 10 - 20 Years - 5.2% 20 - 30 Years - 10.5% Over 30 Years - 0.4% Why? Isn't this fund doing what it is supposed to d...
by Bustoff
Wed Apr 16, 2014 8:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are total bond market funds so often recommended?
Replies: 52
Views: 4200

Re: suggestion for awd luxury sedan

Just a comment on Mercedes quality - for the past 6 years have been driving a MB and have only been to the dealership once per year for routine maintenance. When I do go in I get treated like a celebrity and given a nice new loaner for the day while my car is serviced. Sure beats the attitude and t...
by Bustoff
Wed Apr 16, 2014 8:57 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: suggestion for awd luxury sedan
Replies: 39
Views: 2870

Re: Looking at top 1% for actionable insight

Wouldn't you suspect that a majority of those in the top 1% got there through bequest ?
by Bustoff
Wed Apr 16, 2014 8:45 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Looking at top 1% for actionable insight
Replies: 62
Views: 5832

Re: Why are total bond market funds so often recommended?

Total Bond Markets diversification is beginning to look like a double-edged sword in terms of duration risk.

Distribution by maturity (% of fund) as of 03/31/2014
5 - 10 Years - 35.4%
10 - 20 Years - 5.2%
20 - 30 Years - 10.5%
Over 30 Years - 0.4%
by Bustoff
Wed Apr 16, 2014 8:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are total bond market funds so often recommended?
Replies: 52
Views: 4200

Re: You don't want to be member of the hedge fund club

Consider yourself warned when the founder of a hedge fund advises the public to "go with Jack Bogle" rather than his own hedge fund.
(AQR managed more than $98.8 billion as of Dec. 31)
by Bustoff
Wed Apr 16, 2014 8:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You don't want to be member of the hedge fund club
Replies: 13
Views: 2102

Re: What is your net worth

Everyone knows that the Bogleheads who have the highest number of posts have the highest net worth.
by Bustoff
Wed Apr 16, 2014 7:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your net worth
Replies: 37
Views: 5333

Re: Asness & Fama on Bloomberg TV NOW

This is great stuff. Asness can't be accused of being circumspect.
Asness' advice:
Given the choice of trading alot, being very active, timing the market, picking your own stocks, versus being completely passive, the best choice is go with Bogle rather than Asness or Fama.
by Bustoff
Tue Apr 15, 2014 12:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asness & Fama on Bloomberg TV NOW
Replies: 23
Views: 1130

Re: Asness & Fama on Bloomberg TV NOW

Asness predicts a low return environment for the next 10-20 years for long term investors but market timing is not the answer. He also tried to explain Fama, but the interviewer had no clue what Asness was talking about. http://www.bloomberg.com/video/long-term-market-outlook-concerns-me-most-asness...
by Bustoff
Tue Apr 15, 2014 11:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asness & Fama on Bloomberg TV NOW
Replies: 23
Views: 1130

Re: Need advice on Roof damage and Homeowners Insurance

OK thanks ... just wanted to make sure the insurance company is being fair.
by Bustoff
Mon Apr 14, 2014 3:27 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need advice on Roof damage and Homeowners Insurance
Replies: 6
Views: 393

Re: Need advice on Roof damage and Homeowners Insurance

jbmitt wrote:I'm an adjuster for a specialty carrier. I'll generally match for line of sight/sight lines if I cannot justify replacing a full slope. Matching statutes are state by state specific.


Thanks jbmitt ... what does that mean ? sight/sight lines ?
by Bustoff
Mon Apr 14, 2014 12:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need advice on Roof damage and Homeowners Insurance
Replies: 6
Views: 393

Need advice on Roof damage and Homeowners Insurance

Is my homeowners insurance company trying to hose me? Here's the situation. Recently, high winds blew off several rows shingles but only on one slope of our roof. The roof is about 14 years old. Our homeowners insurance said they would pay to replace the shingles on that entire slope. The problem is...
by Bustoff
Mon Apr 14, 2014 11:59 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need advice on Roof damage and Homeowners Insurance
Replies: 6
Views: 393

Re: Anyone feed the birds?

I found out the mice were gathering the seed that fell to the ground and stashing it in the engine compartment of my car. One mouse had built a little condo complete with a seed cache in an old dresser.
by Bustoff
Sun Apr 13, 2014 10:38 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone feed the birds?
Replies: 84
Views: 6110

Re: New Housing Bubble and upcoming cycle peak

Interesting discussion in here... We quite nearly have our 'nut' saved (20%) but are planning to wait next year when a planned expansion of the family will force a move. I am watching the market and it 'feels' about 10-20% overpriced (Boston market) making me worried about timing. I think in the en...
by Bustoff
Sat Apr 12, 2014 8:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Housing Bubble and upcoming cycle peak
Replies: 74
Views: 6348

Re: Buying first home in SF - gut check

I recall reading that someone, I think it was Dr Bernstein, opined a rule of thumb for prospective home buyers :
never to pay for house more than 15 years of rent (180x monthly rental value)
by Bustoff
Sat Apr 12, 2014 8:45 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying first home in SF - gut check
Replies: 87
Views: 7078

Re: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?

The problem has always been telling if the cat is dead or just sleeping:) Am I alone in being extremely reluctant to make investments in stock right now? << snip >> Well I bought stock fund on Wednesday. On Thursday the fund is down -1%. :oops: :? It looks like you were right after all. :beer Well,...
by Bustoff
Sat Apr 12, 2014 8:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?
Replies: 124
Views: 11674

Re: 401k: Target Date or Do-it-myself

I have no problems with the underlying funds in the Vanguard Target date funds. What I don’t like is a glide path that I have to monitor. Instead of selecting “my year”, I would probably pick the 2035 fund with a 15% bond allocation (0.18% ER). But, with a low 6-figure balance, I’m wondering if I s...
by Bustoff
Sat Apr 12, 2014 7:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401k: Target Date or Do-it-myself
Replies: 7
Views: 1163

Re: Should I take SS at 62 or increase my withdrawal rate ?

Perhaps a simpler way to ask my question is this: Is it more advantageous to increase my withdrawal rate for ten years between 60 and 70 or, maintain a 50% lower withdrawal rate and take SS at 62. If I need an extra $20k per year to live in CA. for 10 years (by delaying SS to 70) that's $200k in wit...
by Bustoff
Fri Apr 11, 2014 6:28 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I take SS at 62 or increase my withdrawal rate ?
Replies: 27
Views: 1565

Re: Should I take SS at 62 or increase my burn rate ?

... My apologies if my OP didn't make it clear that my pension reduces my current 40K expenses. Not sure how you came up with 3M but that's not even close. My annual expenses do not equal my withdrawal rate because some of those expenses are covered by a pension. So my current withdrawal rate is 1....
by Bustoff
Fri Apr 11, 2014 5:53 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I take SS at 62 or increase my withdrawal rate ?
Replies: 27
Views: 1565

Re: Should I take SS at 62 or increase my burn rate ?

Since the OP is married, don't forget to do the calculation based upon file/suspend at FRA and spousal claim (at 50%) - also suggested at FRA. There's a bit more money that might be "in the mix" to be considered. To do a better analysis, may I suggest the tool: http://individual.trowepric...
by Bustoff
Fri Apr 11, 2014 3:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I take SS at 62 or increase my withdrawal rate ?
Replies: 27
Views: 1565

Re: Should I take SS at 62 or increase my burn rate ?

Have you done any research on home prices in your target CA area or the cost of living? What area are you talking about? To be honest, these both sound low to me considering CA home prices, property taxes, state and local taxes, and gasoline tax. Remember, if you start with bad assumptions, you wil...
by Bustoff
Fri Apr 11, 2014 3:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I take SS at 62 or increase my withdrawal rate ?
Replies: 27
Views: 1565

Re: Should I take SS at 62 or increase my burn rate ?

If you delay taking Social Security until the age of 70, what your portfolio withdrawal rate would be at that time? If it's still 2-2.5%, it's worth delaying. Victoria Ah, but the OP has already told anybody who remembers middle school algebra the answer. Sort of. Current portfolio = c. $2.9M (aver...
by Bustoff
Fri Apr 11, 2014 3:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I take SS at 62 or increase my withdrawal rate ?
Replies: 27
Views: 1565

Re: Should I take SS at 62 or increase my burn rate ?

If you 100lbs overweight and a heavy smoker, I would recommend taking SS at 62.:) In the OPs case, the burn rate is 2.8% after the move. There is no need for SS money. At 2.8% the odds of your portfolio lasting 30 years is up in the 99.9% range (I.e. you need to start worrying alien invasion more t...
by Bustoff
Fri Apr 11, 2014 3:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I take SS at 62 or increase my withdrawal rate ?
Replies: 27
Views: 1565

Re: Should I take SS at 62 or increase my burn rate ?

If you delay taking Social Security until the age of 70, what your portfolio withdrawal rate would be at that time? If it's still 2-2.5%, it's worth delaying. Victoria Hi Victoria, If I wait till 70 my my burn rate would be 2.1%. But I just realized I forgot to account for changes in the value of t...
by Bustoff
Fri Apr 11, 2014 3:02 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I take SS at 62 or increase my withdrawal rate ?
Replies: 27
Views: 1565

Re: Should I take SS at 62 or increase my burn rate ?

Can't get a mortgage so I would need to pull the extra $300k from portfolio. Retired people get mortgages (I got mine at 66, 8 years into retirement); regular SS and pension payments count, although there are other factors depending on the lender. Thanks sscritic- I'm still a couple of years away f...
by Bustoff
Fri Apr 11, 2014 2:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I take SS at 62 or increase my withdrawal rate ?
Replies: 27
Views: 1565

Should I take SS at 62 or increase my withdrawal rate ?

I was hoping some of you could help me figure out the better move. Now that we are retired, we want to relocate from the Midwest to California. To afford this I need to either increase my withdrawal rate or take SS at 62. I'm hoping we can find a house in CA. for $500k. Our current home would sell f...
by Bustoff
Fri Apr 11, 2014 12:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I take SS at 62 or increase my withdrawal rate ?
Replies: 27
Views: 1565

Re: New TV or Sound bar?

I may be wrong but, I think the sound bars work best with TV's that have an ARC hdmi port. ARC is Audio Return Channel. You need ARC compliant hdmi cables also. All HDMI 1.3 and higher compliant cables have ARC capability. Most soundbars have a variety of ways to connect, including RCA connector an...
by Bustoff
Fri Apr 11, 2014 11:06 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New TV or Sound bar?
Replies: 38
Views: 2085

Re: I saw a "Boglehead" on my flight yesterday!

sscritic wrote: I have never been to one.


Two things:
1. I'm stunned to hear someone with almost 20,000 posts has never been to a Boglehead Conference. :shock:

2. Looks like I'll never get to see sscritic at a conference and ask him if I should take at 62 or 70. :(

There should be Boglehead pens!
by Bustoff
Thu Apr 10, 2014 2:01 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: I saw a "Boglehead" on my flight yesterday!
Replies: 65
Views: 7500

Re: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?

YDNAL wrote:I tactically allocate time the market and there is no shame in it AFAIC, because I don't care what anyone else thinks or does him/herself.


Sometimes I see you and livesoft say that you "time the market". Are you being serious, or simply making an ironic point ?
by Bustoff
Thu Apr 10, 2014 11:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?
Replies: 124
Views: 11674

Re: I saw a "Boglehead" on my flight yesterday!

At the conferences, do your name tags also display your "user names" ?
If I ever attend I would like to meet some of my favorite posters.
by Bustoff
Thu Apr 10, 2014 10:32 am
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: I saw a "Boglehead" on my flight yesterday!
Replies: 65
Views: 7500

Re: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?

This was taken from a post started by bhsince87. I thought it was appropriate for people who stay out of the market because they think it is too high.Here’s an interesting little analysis of what might happen if you are a poor market timer, and buy in to a broad index fund at market peaks. Bottom l...
by Bustoff
Thu Apr 10, 2014 10:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?
Replies: 124
Views: 11674

Re: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?

In other words, if I don't undo the exchange, then you all can accuse me of a great market timing move. I couldn't let that happen, right? Thanks livesoft ... I'm still learning and thought I was missing out on something more fundamental. As you know Total International recovered 8% since 2/3/14. T...
by Bustoff
Thu Apr 10, 2014 9:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?
Replies: 124
Views: 11674

Re: Favorite Investing Book?

If I could choose only one book to have on my bookshelf it would be "Unveiling The Retirement Myth", by Jim Otar.
Cruel irony, it's no longer in print.
by Bustoff
Thu Apr 10, 2014 7:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Favorite Investing Book?
Replies: 42
Views: 3170

Re: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?

I love these threads. While one day, they may be right, most of the time they are good indicators to buy. I am submitting an exchange order to buy right now in an IRA: From 100% short-term bonds to 100% Total Int'l Stock Market. Thanks for starting this thread. My IRA that had bonds made 1% more th...
by Bustoff
Wed Apr 09, 2014 6:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?
Replies: 124
Views: 11674

Re: California Taxes - Am I Missing Something?

OR, You can retire to Colorado where you carry your $3,000 mountain bike atop your $500 car and the top of your head is bald, but you still have a pony tail. :wink: OR, You can retire to Phoenix, Arizona where you're willing to park 3 blocks away from your house because you found shade. BTW, that &q...
by Bustoff
Wed Apr 09, 2014 2:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: California Taxes - Am I Missing Something?
Replies: 142
Views: 7918

Re: California Taxes - Am I Missing Something?

Alexandria wrote:I've seen a lot of comments about how California is too expensive a state to retire in. I don't agree at all.


I think many of the comments reflect the frustration with CA real estate prices. They have risen so much that it's now out of the reach for many of us who would love to relocate there.
by Bustoff
Wed Apr 09, 2014 10:16 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: California Taxes - Am I Missing Something?
Replies: 142
Views: 7918

Re: California Taxes - Am I Missing Something?

surfstar wrote:Why buy an overpriced house/condo when you can rent?


Can get this for double-wide for $150,000 in Lawrence Welk Village, Escondido, CA

Image
by Bustoff
Wed Apr 09, 2014 7:58 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: California Taxes - Am I Missing Something?
Replies: 142
Views: 7918

Re: Mortgage Loans and Retirement

Thanks - that's interesting and pretty much in line with what the realtor told me. I've been thinking it would make sense to buy sooner rather than later since prices seem to be increasing fairly strongly. We haven't moved around much, so I don't have a lot of experience trading houses. I do dread ...
by Bustoff
Wed Apr 09, 2014 7:33 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage Loans and Retirement
Replies: 6
Views: 847

Re: New TV or Sound bar?

I have a Panasonic Viera TH50PX80U 50" Plasma HDTV. The picture still looks great but the sound (especially with movies) often sounds muffled to the point where it needs to be turned up pretty loud to hear what people are saying. Mine too. I have to use the closed caption to understand the dia...
by Bustoff
Wed Apr 09, 2014 6:30 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New TV or Sound bar?
Replies: 38
Views: 2085

Re: California Taxes - Am I Missing Something?

john94549 wrote: I doubt $200K could get you much these days, even in Arizona,

In 2011, our friends bought a beautiful 2300 sq ft ranch in Scottsdale (at Troon North) for $265,000. (No, it wasn't a foreclosure.) They pay $1500/year property taxes. Been there. Too barren.
by Bustoff
Wed Apr 09, 2014 6:14 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: California Taxes - Am I Missing Something?
Replies: 142
Views: 7918

Re: California Taxes - Am I Missing Something?

I am considering a move to CA and housing seems to be the big ticket item to factor in for cost of living. Back to the OP ^, from my perspective you nailed it. Although the state income tax is relatively high, the cost of housing in many areas is the big issue. My daughter was just remarking the ot...
by Bustoff
Tue Apr 08, 2014 6:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: California Taxes - Am I Missing Something?
Replies: 142
Views: 7918

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V

Just received Expected Returns: An Investor's Guide to Harvesting Market Rewards
by Antti Ilmanen. It doesn't look like a fun read at almost 600 pages, and I don't see any pictures. Lots of charts and graphs though.

Anxiously awaiting my copy of Flash Boys.
by Bustoff
Tue Apr 08, 2014 4:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V
Replies: 2626
Views: 597797

Re: California Taxes - Am I Missing Something?

That coastal fog air conditioning system is one of the two huge things that keeps us living where we are. As the Redwood City sign says, "Climate Best by Government Test". Of course the other thing is prop 13. JW Looks like a great place. But according to Zillow, in Redwood City, the medi...
by Bustoff
Tue Apr 08, 2014 11:01 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: California Taxes - Am I Missing Something?
Replies: 142
Views: 7918

Re: Tesla S

If the range is only 200 miles on the base model, doesn't that make road trips more than a three hours (at 60 mph) difficult ? Assuming there charging stations, how would you find them when traveling inter-state hwy's and what does it cost for a full recharge ? The bigger (85Kw) battery has EPR rat...
by Bustoff
Mon Apr 07, 2014 7:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla S
Replies: 431
Views: 38274

Re: California Taxes - Am I Missing Something?

Taxes here in Missouri are only 6%. Nevertheless, I still want to move to Southern California. For Bogleheads living in California, do you think it would be a mistake to consider Riverside County for the sake of lower housing prices. Also the desert towns like Palm Desert have more affordable housi...
by Bustoff
Mon Apr 07, 2014 6:21 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: California Taxes - Am I Missing Something?
Replies: 142
Views: 7918
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