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Re: POLL: what's the deal with Tuna Fish?

You're a "market timer" if you don't try Wild Planet Tuna
by Bustoff
Wed Apr 23, 2014 2:49 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: POLL: what's the deal with Tuna Fish?
Replies: 46
Views: 2762

Re: Monthly Rental in Southern Calif.

Appreciate the suggestions. We have used VRBO in the past and were generally satisfied. I would be more cautious with Craigslist, especially from 2000 miles away.
Finding a reasonably safe area is a big priority.
by Bustoff
Wed Apr 23, 2014 1:57 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Monthly Rental in Southern Calif.
Replies: 6
Views: 341

Monthly Rental in Southern Calif.

We are interested in relocating to Southern California and decided to try renting but only for a month or two at a time.
We would like to rent a place this summer in the northern part of San Diego County.
Would appreciate any rec's or suggestions.
by Bustoff
Wed Apr 23, 2014 9:49 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Monthly Rental in Southern Calif.
Replies: 6
Views: 341

Re: If you have ACA health insurance, what is your experien

I lost two of my three physicians, including primary care physician, because they don't accept the marketplace plans.
by Bustoff
Wed Apr 23, 2014 9:36 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If you have ACA health insurance, what is your experience?
Replies: 139
Views: 5881

Re: wood deck stain?

I use Olympic Maximum Toner on my deck. The wood is not cedar but is pressure treated. The toner lasts about 3 years.
by Bustoff
Wed Apr 23, 2014 9:24 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: wood deck stain?
Replies: 15
Views: 524

Re: Compensating for inflation with a fixed pension?

dickenjb wrote:
Bustoff wrote:Thanks deikel and dbr.
I really dislike the thought of delaying SS for ten years, but it's hard to justify not doing so.


Ten years?


Yeah I know, it's actually only 8 years. I was focused my years to 70.
by Bustoff
Wed Apr 23, 2014 9:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Compensating for inflation with a fixed pension?
Replies: 10
Views: 798

Re: Where would you retire, if $ were no object?

I would set up camp somewhere in the Monterey Peninsula, play golf at Cypress Point.
Image
by Bustoff
Wed Apr 23, 2014 8:59 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where would you retire, if $ were no object?
Replies: 47
Views: 2113

Re: Compensating for inflation with a fixed pension?

Thanks deikel and dbr.
I really dislike the thought of delaying SS for ten years, but it's hard to justify not doing so.
by Bustoff
Tue Apr 22, 2014 3:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Compensating for inflation with a fixed pension?
Replies: 10
Views: 798

Re: are you too conservative with your investments?

The chart shows 2008 returns for 20-yr and 5-yr Treasuries were 25.8% and 13.1%. In 2008 the Total Bond Fund, which has an average duration of 5 years, returned only 5.05%. Why would 5-yr treasuries return so much more? Bustoff Flight to quality and liquidity and also call risk might have been resp...
by Bustoff
Tue Apr 22, 2014 12:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: are you too conservative with your investments?
Replies: 11
Views: 1559

Re: are you too conservative with your investments?

The chart shows 2008 returns for 20-yr and 5-yr Treasuries were 25.8% and 13.1%.
In 2008 the Total Bond Fund, which has an average duration of 5 years, returned only 5.05%.
Why would 5-yr treasuries return so much more?
by Bustoff
Tue Apr 22, 2014 11:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: are you too conservative with your investments?
Replies: 11
Views: 1559

Compensating for inflation with a fixed pension?

I'm looking for thoughts on how to compensate for the effects of inflation on a fixed non-cola pension . Is this simply a matter of guessing an annual rate of inflation over 30 years ? Moreover, how does one go about calculating the amount needed to invest in order to offset the inflationary loss? F...
by Bustoff
Tue Apr 22, 2014 11:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Compensating for inflation with a fixed pension?
Replies: 10
Views: 798

Re: Q&A with Jack Bogle at 2014 Bogleheads Conference

Mr. Bogle,
Pretend you were 65 today and retiring in 2014. You maintain fairly modest lifestyle and have a total nestegg of one million, but no pension. How would you allocate portfolio?
by Bustoff
Mon Apr 21, 2014 8:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Q&A with Jack Bogle at 2014 Bogleheads Conference
Replies: 23
Views: 2143

Re: The reverse world of retirement investing

According to Otar, at withdrawal rates between 3% to 5%, luck is by far the largest determinant of portfolio growth, followed by inflation and lastly allocation.
by Bustoff
Sun Apr 20, 2014 10:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The reverse world of retirement investing
Replies: 34
Views: 3933

Re: Why are total bond market funds so often recommended?

I find myself pulled in both directions with bonds. On the one hand, I think: "If I wanted more risk, I'll buy more stocks, not more risky bonds." On the other hand, I think: "I don't understand bonds at all. So why not just own all of them?" Larry Swedroe believes 5 yrs is the ...
by Bustoff
Wed Apr 16, 2014 1:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are total bond market funds so often recommended?
Replies: 52
Views: 4424

Re: Why are total bond market funds so often recommended?

On the plus side, Morningstar shows TBF has an Average Effective Duration of 5.47 years

http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/summary?t=vbmfx
by Bustoff
Wed Apr 16, 2014 11:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are total bond market funds so often recommended?
Replies: 52
Views: 4424

Re: You don't want to be member of the hedge fund club

Consider yourself warned when the founder of a hedge fund advises the public to "go with Jack Bogle" rather than his own hedge fund. (AQR managed more than $98.8 billion as of Dec. 31) However, he very clearly said that if you had to choose between a strategy of stock picking, timing and ...
by Bustoff
Wed Apr 16, 2014 11:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You don't want to be member of the hedge fund club
Replies: 13
Views: 2286

Re: What is your net worth

InvestorNewb wrote:I question the folks who selected 50m and 100m.


It's Bogle and Larimore, in that order !
by Bustoff
Wed Apr 16, 2014 10:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your net worth
Replies: 37
Views: 5413

Re: Correction

Total Bond Markets diversification is beginning to look like a double-edged sword in terms of duration risk. Distribution by maturity (% of fund) as of 03/31/2014 5 - 10 Years - 35.4% 10 - 20 Years - 5.2% 20 - 30 Years - 10.5% Over 30 Years - 0.4% Bustoff: Your figures do not add to 100%. These are...
by Bustoff
Wed Apr 16, 2014 10:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are total bond market funds so often recommended?
Replies: 52
Views: 4424

Re: Why are total bond market funds so often recommended?

Isn't it supposed to represent the bond market as a whole - which includes long-term bonds? I wasn't sure how to interpret your comment about it being a "double-edged sword." I was just expressing some personal angst (which may be misplaced) about the interest-rate risk associated with th...
by Bustoff
Wed Apr 16, 2014 9:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are total bond market funds so often recommended?
Replies: 52
Views: 4424

Re: Why are total bond market funds so often recommended?

Total Bond Markets diversification is beginning to look like a double-edged sword in terms of duration risk. Distribution by maturity (% of fund) as of 03/31/2014 5 - 10 Years - 35.4% 10 - 20 Years - 5.2% 20 - 30 Years - 10.5% Over 30 Years - 0.4% Why? Isn't this fund doing what it is supposed to d...
by Bustoff
Wed Apr 16, 2014 8:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are total bond market funds so often recommended?
Replies: 52
Views: 4424

Re: suggestion for awd luxury sedan

Just a comment on Mercedes quality - for the past 6 years have been driving a MB and have only been to the dealership once per year for routine maintenance. When I do go in I get treated like a celebrity and given a nice new loaner for the day while my car is serviced. Sure beats the attitude and t...
by Bustoff
Wed Apr 16, 2014 8:57 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: suggestion for awd luxury sedan
Replies: 44
Views: 3482

Re: Looking at top 1% for actionable insight

Wouldn't you suspect that a majority of those in the top 1% got there through bequest ?
by Bustoff
Wed Apr 16, 2014 8:45 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Looking at top 1% for actionable insight
Replies: 73
Views: 7459

Re: Why are total bond market funds so often recommended?

Total Bond Markets diversification is beginning to look like a double-edged sword in terms of duration risk.

Distribution by maturity (% of fund) as of 03/31/2014
5 - 10 Years - 35.4%
10 - 20 Years - 5.2%
20 - 30 Years - 10.5%
Over 30 Years - 0.4%
by Bustoff
Wed Apr 16, 2014 8:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are total bond market funds so often recommended?
Replies: 52
Views: 4424

Re: You don't want to be member of the hedge fund club

Consider yourself warned when the founder of a hedge fund advises the public to "go with Jack Bogle" rather than his own hedge fund.
(AQR managed more than $98.8 billion as of Dec. 31)
by Bustoff
Wed Apr 16, 2014 8:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You don't want to be member of the hedge fund club
Replies: 13
Views: 2286

Re: What is your net worth

Everyone knows that the Bogleheads who have the highest number of posts have the highest net worth.
by Bustoff
Wed Apr 16, 2014 7:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your net worth
Replies: 37
Views: 5413

Re: Asness & Fama on Bloomberg TV NOW

This is great stuff. Asness can't be accused of being circumspect.
Asness' advice:
Given the choice of trading alot, being very active, timing the market, picking your own stocks, versus being completely passive, the best choice is go with Bogle rather than Asness or Fama.
by Bustoff
Tue Apr 15, 2014 12:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asness & Fama on Bloomberg TV NOW
Replies: 23
Views: 1148

Re: Asness & Fama on Bloomberg TV NOW

Asness predicts a low return environment for the next 10-20 years for long term investors but market timing is not the answer. He also tried to explain Fama, but the interviewer had no clue what Asness was talking about. http://www.bloomberg.com/video/long-term-market-outlook-concerns-me-most-asness...
by Bustoff
Tue Apr 15, 2014 11:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asness & Fama on Bloomberg TV NOW
Replies: 23
Views: 1148

Re: Need advice on Roof damage and Homeowners Insurance

OK thanks ... just wanted to make sure the insurance company is being fair.
by Bustoff
Mon Apr 14, 2014 3:27 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need advice on Roof damage and Homeowners Insurance
Replies: 6
Views: 400

Re: Need advice on Roof damage and Homeowners Insurance

jbmitt wrote:I'm an adjuster for a specialty carrier. I'll generally match for line of sight/sight lines if I cannot justify replacing a full slope. Matching statutes are state by state specific.


Thanks jbmitt ... what does that mean ? sight/sight lines ?
by Bustoff
Mon Apr 14, 2014 12:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need advice on Roof damage and Homeowners Insurance
Replies: 6
Views: 400

Need advice on Roof damage and Homeowners Insurance

Is my homeowners insurance company trying to hose me? Here's the situation. Recently, high winds blew off several rows shingles but only on one slope of our roof. The roof is about 14 years old. Our homeowners insurance said they would pay to replace the shingles on that entire slope. The problem is...
by Bustoff
Mon Apr 14, 2014 11:59 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need advice on Roof damage and Homeowners Insurance
Replies: 6
Views: 400

Re: Anyone feed the birds?

I found out the mice were gathering the seed that fell to the ground and stashing it in the engine compartment of my car. One mouse had built a little condo complete with a seed cache in an old dresser.
by Bustoff
Sun Apr 13, 2014 10:38 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone feed the birds?
Replies: 84
Views: 6199

Re: New Housing Bubble and upcoming cycle peak

Interesting discussion in here... We quite nearly have our 'nut' saved (20%) but are planning to wait next year when a planned expansion of the family will force a move. I am watching the market and it 'feels' about 10-20% overpriced (Boston market) making me worried about timing. I think in the en...
by Bustoff
Sat Apr 12, 2014 8:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Housing Bubble and upcoming cycle peak
Replies: 74
Views: 6381

Re: Buying first home in SF - gut check

I recall reading that someone, I think it was Dr Bernstein, opined a rule of thumb for prospective home buyers :
never to pay for house more than 15 years of rent (180x monthly rental value)
by Bustoff
Sat Apr 12, 2014 8:45 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying first home in SF - gut check
Replies: 87
Views: 7102

Re: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?

The problem has always been telling if the cat is dead or just sleeping:) Am I alone in being extremely reluctant to make investments in stock right now? << snip >> Well I bought stock fund on Wednesday. On Thursday the fund is down -1%. :oops: :? It looks like you were right after all. :beer Well,...
by Bustoff
Sat Apr 12, 2014 8:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?
Replies: 124
Views: 12141

Re: 401k: Target Date or Do-it-myself

I have no problems with the underlying funds in the Vanguard Target date funds. What I don’t like is a glide path that I have to monitor. Instead of selecting “my year”, I would probably pick the 2035 fund with a 15% bond allocation (0.18% ER). But, with a low 6-figure balance, I’m wondering if I s...
by Bustoff
Sat Apr 12, 2014 7:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401k: Target Date or Do-it-myself
Replies: 7
Views: 1194

Re: Should I take SS at 62 or increase my withdrawal rate ?

Perhaps a simpler way to ask my question is this: Is it more advantageous to increase my withdrawal rate for ten years between 60 and 70 or, maintain a 50% lower withdrawal rate and take SS at 62. If I need an extra $20k per year to live in CA. for 10 years (by delaying SS to 70) that's $200k in wit...
by Bustoff
Fri Apr 11, 2014 6:28 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I take SS at 62 or increase my withdrawal rate ?
Replies: 27
Views: 1589

Re: Should I take SS at 62 or increase my burn rate ?

... My apologies if my OP didn't make it clear that my pension reduces my current 40K expenses. Not sure how you came up with 3M but that's not even close. My annual expenses do not equal my withdrawal rate because some of those expenses are covered by a pension. So my current withdrawal rate is 1....
by Bustoff
Fri Apr 11, 2014 5:53 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I take SS at 62 or increase my withdrawal rate ?
Replies: 27
Views: 1589

Re: Should I take SS at 62 or increase my burn rate ?

Since the OP is married, don't forget to do the calculation based upon file/suspend at FRA and spousal claim (at 50%) - also suggested at FRA. There's a bit more money that might be "in the mix" to be considered. To do a better analysis, may I suggest the tool: http://individual.trowepric...
by Bustoff
Fri Apr 11, 2014 3:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I take SS at 62 or increase my withdrawal rate ?
Replies: 27
Views: 1589

Re: Should I take SS at 62 or increase my burn rate ?

Have you done any research on home prices in your target CA area or the cost of living? What area are you talking about? To be honest, these both sound low to me considering CA home prices, property taxes, state and local taxes, and gasoline tax. Remember, if you start with bad assumptions, you wil...
by Bustoff
Fri Apr 11, 2014 3:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I take SS at 62 or increase my withdrawal rate ?
Replies: 27
Views: 1589

Re: Should I take SS at 62 or increase my burn rate ?

If you delay taking Social Security until the age of 70, what your portfolio withdrawal rate would be at that time? If it's still 2-2.5%, it's worth delaying. Victoria Ah, but the OP has already told anybody who remembers middle school algebra the answer. Sort of. Current portfolio = c. $2.9M (aver...
by Bustoff
Fri Apr 11, 2014 3:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I take SS at 62 or increase my withdrawal rate ?
Replies: 27
Views: 1589

Re: Should I take SS at 62 or increase my burn rate ?

If you 100lbs overweight and a heavy smoker, I would recommend taking SS at 62.:) In the OPs case, the burn rate is 2.8% after the move. There is no need for SS money. At 2.8% the odds of your portfolio lasting 30 years is up in the 99.9% range (I.e. you need to start worrying alien invasion more t...
by Bustoff
Fri Apr 11, 2014 3:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I take SS at 62 or increase my withdrawal rate ?
Replies: 27
Views: 1589

Re: Should I take SS at 62 or increase my burn rate ?

If you delay taking Social Security until the age of 70, what your portfolio withdrawal rate would be at that time? If it's still 2-2.5%, it's worth delaying. Victoria Hi Victoria, If I wait till 70 my my burn rate would be 2.1%. But I just realized I forgot to account for changes in the value of t...
by Bustoff
Fri Apr 11, 2014 3:02 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I take SS at 62 or increase my withdrawal rate ?
Replies: 27
Views: 1589

Re: Should I take SS at 62 or increase my burn rate ?

Can't get a mortgage so I would need to pull the extra $300k from portfolio. Retired people get mortgages (I got mine at 66, 8 years into retirement); regular SS and pension payments count, although there are other factors depending on the lender. Thanks sscritic- I'm still a couple of years away f...
by Bustoff
Fri Apr 11, 2014 2:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I take SS at 62 or increase my withdrawal rate ?
Replies: 27
Views: 1589

Should I take SS at 62 or increase my withdrawal rate ?

I was hoping some of you could help me figure out the better move. Now that we are retired, we want to relocate from the Midwest to California. To afford this I need to either increase my withdrawal rate or take SS at 62. I'm hoping we can find a house in CA. for $500k. Our current home would sell f...
by Bustoff
Fri Apr 11, 2014 12:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I take SS at 62 or increase my withdrawal rate ?
Replies: 27
Views: 1589

Re: New TV or Sound bar?

I may be wrong but, I think the sound bars work best with TV's that have an ARC hdmi port. ARC is Audio Return Channel. You need ARC compliant hdmi cables also. All HDMI 1.3 and higher compliant cables have ARC capability. Most soundbars have a variety of ways to connect, including RCA connector an...
by Bustoff
Fri Apr 11, 2014 11:06 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New TV or Sound bar?
Replies: 38
Views: 2221

Re: I saw a "Boglehead" on my flight yesterday!

sscritic wrote: I have never been to one.


Two things:
1. I'm stunned to hear someone with almost 20,000 posts has never been to a Boglehead Conference. :shock:

2. Looks like I'll never get to see sscritic at a conference and ask him if I should take at 62 or 70. :(

There should be Boglehead pens!
by Bustoff
Thu Apr 10, 2014 2:01 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: I saw a "Boglehead" on my flight yesterday!
Replies: 65
Views: 7648

Re: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?

YDNAL wrote:I tactically allocate time the market and there is no shame in it AFAIC, because I don't care what anyone else thinks or does him/herself.


Sometimes I see you and livesoft say that you "time the market". Are you being serious, or simply making an ironic point ?
by Bustoff
Thu Apr 10, 2014 11:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?
Replies: 124
Views: 12141

Re: I saw a "Boglehead" on my flight yesterday!

At the conferences, do your name tags also display your "user names" ?
If I ever attend I would like to meet some of my favorite posters.
by Bustoff
Thu Apr 10, 2014 10:32 am
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: I saw a "Boglehead" on my flight yesterday!
Replies: 65
Views: 7648

Re: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?

This was taken from a post started by bhsince87. I thought it was appropriate for people who stay out of the market because they think it is too high.Here’s an interesting little analysis of what might happen if you are a poor market timer, and buy in to a broad index fund at market peaks. Bottom l...
by Bustoff
Thu Apr 10, 2014 10:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?
Replies: 124
Views: 12141

Re: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?

In other words, if I don't undo the exchange, then you all can accuse me of a great market timing move. I couldn't let that happen, right? Thanks livesoft ... I'm still learning and thought I was missing out on something more fundamental. As you know Total International recovered 8% since 2/3/14. T...
by Bustoff
Thu Apr 10, 2014 9:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?
Replies: 124
Views: 12141
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