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Re: Study: poor 5-yr U.S. returns -- overweight foreign?

Used all the data available to me in Simba, which covers 1973-2013. The only time periods it did not "work" during that entire period were the market crash periods in 2000--2002 and 2008. In these two periods, the 50/50 allocation had a barely better cumulative drawdown than switching (-39...
by Browser
Thu Aug 28, 2014 6:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: poor 5-yr U.S. returns -- overweight foreign?
Replies: 46
Views: 2907

Re: BMW X3 vs Mercedes GLK350

You might want to wait to see the new Lexus NX due out in December. Looks like some competition in the sporty SUV segment and has faux leather seats. If it suits, Lexus is a much more reliable brand than the Germans.

http://www.lexus.com/concept/NX/index.html
by Browser
Thu Aug 28, 2014 6:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: BMW X3 vs Mercedes GLK350
Replies: 9
Views: 616

Re: 2014/2015 Honda Accord vs. 2014 Toyota Avalon

I would think just about every dealer would allow you to try it on the highway (as long as it wasn't 30 miles away). Nope. The Toyota dealers around (with dealerships right next to the freeway) have specific inside-the-city loops that will take you on a sightseeing trip of all the speed bumps in th...
by Browser
Thu Aug 28, 2014 2:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2014/2015 Honda Accord vs. 2014 Toyota Avalon
Replies: 51
Views: 3639

Re: Study: poor 5-yr U.S. returns -- overweight foreign?

Hot Hands' Strategy. Browser's switcheroo sounds like the Hot Hands' Strategy of the late 1990s which was designed to beat buy-and-holders (Daniel Wiener recommends this strategy to his newsletter readers). Thanks for reading. Maybe you could use a "hot thumbs" strategy (instead of going ...
by Browser
Thu Aug 28, 2014 1:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: poor 5-yr U.S. returns -- overweight foreign?
Replies: 46
Views: 2907

Re: Study: poor 5-yr U.S. returns -- overweight foreign?

I don't know if anyone has looked at this, but I decided to see what would have happened if an investor had switched his equity allocation annually between TSM and TI based on which had the highest returns the previous year. In other words, if TSM outperformed TI, he would invest 100% in TSM the fol...
by Browser
Thu Aug 28, 2014 1:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: poor 5-yr U.S. returns -- overweight foreign?
Replies: 46
Views: 2907

Re: Which bed should I buy?

I was just looking at the Simmons Beautyrest Black mattresses yesterday and they seemed quite nice. Sorry for your experience, and I'll probably avoid those. I also looked at the Beautyrest Hybrid mattresses, which have the coils under and the memory foam on top. They felt quite comfortable and mayb...
by Browser
Wed Aug 27, 2014 9:36 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which bed should I buy?
Replies: 17
Views: 1172

Re: Subaru Blues

More specific info regarding the busted Suby. It was the VDC (vehicle dynamic control) system that failed. She also had been experiencing oil burning problems as she had with the previous Subaru Outback so she was already regretting the purchase. Since her vehicle was only a couple years old, I gues...
by Browser
Wed Aug 27, 2014 9:32 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Subaru Blues
Replies: 75
Views: 5935

Re: Study: poor 5-yr U.S. returns -- overweight foreign?

No less a soul than Father Jack himself has changed allocations based, at least in part, on the assessment of market valuations. He moved from 80% to 25% in one swell foop. Check this out:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k6ra5POdsYg&index=2&list=FLGVD_BiiSQfZZztsFvzSK1g
by Browser
Wed Aug 27, 2014 6:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: poor 5-yr U.S. returns -- overweight foreign?
Replies: 46
Views: 2907

Re: Study: poor 5-yr U.S. returns -- overweight foreign?

Search this forum. Read through the bogleheads guide and several other key "boglehead" books. A common theme is that one should set their AA based on their own need, desire, and ability to take risk. That's it. Period. They should not adjust their AA based on what market is doing - based ...
by Browser
Wed Aug 27, 2014 5:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: poor 5-yr U.S. returns -- overweight foreign?
Replies: 46
Views: 2907

Re: Which bed should I buy?

What happens when a mattress "gives out" after 5 years? Especially one that cost $3200? I've owned mattresses for decades that never "gave out", and they cost a lot less than that. Just curious.
by Browser
Wed Aug 27, 2014 5:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which bed should I buy?
Replies: 17
Views: 1172

Re: Can someone make a living as a Boglehead financial advis

Thanks for your post neurosphere. Exactly what I hoped, that someone who is "walking the walk" could chime in. There are a lot more people out there who need help with their investing than know they need help, it appears. You begin to wonder if most investors get just what they deserve fro...
by Browser
Wed Aug 27, 2014 5:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can someone make a living as a Boglehead financial advisor?
Replies: 21
Views: 2365

Can someone make a living as a Boglehead financial advisor?

I was sitting here mulling that if I were a younger man, I might want to consider becoming a financial advisor as my occupation. But if I were to pursue that career, I'd want to be a Boglehead advisor because those are the principles I believe are correct and ethical. However, could I make a decent ...
by Browser
Wed Aug 27, 2014 12:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can someone make a living as a Boglehead financial advisor?
Replies: 21
Views: 2365

Re: The most hated car brand in America is...

From the quarterly report: The ACSI Automobile Report 2014 is based on interviews with 4,360 customers, chosen at random and contacted via telephone and email between April 22 and May 29, 2014. Customers are asked to evaluate their recent purchase and experiences with automobiles manufactured by the...
by Browser
Wed Aug 27, 2014 11:27 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The most hated car brand in America is...
Replies: 4
Views: 1124

The most hated car brand in America is...

Acura? Closely followed by Dodge, Jeep, and Audi. And the most loved brands? Mercedes, Subaru, Lexi, and (?) Volkswagen ? http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-most-hated-car-company-in-america-is-2014-08-26?dist=beforebell What do you make of these ratings? [Locked. General comment threads are OT in...
by Browser
Wed Aug 27, 2014 10:09 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The most hated car brand in America is...
Replies: 4
Views: 1124

Re: 2014/2015 Honda Accord vs. 2014 Toyota Avalon

FWIW, Consumer Reports just named the Highlander Hybrid as it's top midsized SUV and the gasoline version #2.
by Browser
Tue Aug 26, 2014 8:56 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2014/2015 Honda Accord vs. 2014 Toyota Avalon
Replies: 51
Views: 3639

Re: Study: poor 5-yr U.S. returns -- overweight foreign?

A new study using CAPE ratios estimates that there is a high probability that the U.S. stock market will experience a 30% drawdown within the next 5 years. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2470935 Many foreign developed and emerging markets are at better valuations, and should pro...
by Browser
Tue Aug 26, 2014 8:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: poor 5-yr U.S. returns -- overweight foreign?
Replies: 46
Views: 2907

Re: New vehicle...GMC Acadia, Chevy Traverse, or Buick Encla

Reviving this thread to mention that a piece I just read says 2015 is the last year for the Dodge Durango. Might not be a good purchase if it becomes defunct. As a part of Fiat’s big shakeup, the Dodge Durango is being showed the door for the 2016 model year, making the 2015 model the last, at least...
by Browser
Tue Aug 26, 2014 8:46 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New vehicle...GMC Acadia, Chevy Traverse, or Buick Enclave?
Replies: 111
Views: 9267

Study: poor 5-yr U.S. returns -- overweight foreign?

A new study using CAPE ratios estimates that there is a high probability that the U.S. stock market will experience a 30% drawdown within the next 5 years. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2470935 Many foreign developed and emerging markets are at better valuations, and should prov...
by Browser
Tue Aug 26, 2014 12:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: poor 5-yr U.S. returns -- overweight foreign?
Replies: 46
Views: 2907

Re: Subaru Blues

I can't read her mind, but I'm thinking that she has basically lost confidence in the brand at this point and is worried about more problems and more repairs down the road with her present vehicle, as this seemed to be her experience with her previous Outback. Why it took getting to this point, rath...
by Browser
Tue Aug 26, 2014 12:07 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Subaru Blues
Replies: 75
Views: 5935

Re: Subaru Blues

Update: Friend's Subaru was diagnosed as having failure the "master control whatchamacallit" - I gather a system computer of some sort. Don't know the details. Repair would cost $1500. Even though still under warranty she decided to ditch it and trade for a Nissan. Didn't much like being ...
by Browser
Tue Aug 26, 2014 11:26 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Subaru Blues
Replies: 75
Views: 5935

Re: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?

I think Larry is also saying that you can improve returns for your overall portfolio by adding CCF because you can then increase the duration of your bond holdings. I think we need to keep this in mind ("the term premium and the risks mix well together"). I think Browser was just doing a ...
by Browser
Tue Aug 26, 2014 11:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?
Replies: 45
Views: 2640

Re: Subaru Blues

Update: Friend's Subaru was diagnosed as having failure the "master control whatchamacallit" - I gather a system computer of some sort. Don't know the details. Repair would cost $1500. Even though still under warranty she decided to ditch it and trade for a Nissan. Didn't much like being s...
by Browser
Tue Aug 26, 2014 10:47 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Subaru Blues
Replies: 75
Views: 5935

Re: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?

few things First, Browser that is nothing more than data mining exercise. eliminate the two great years and start at high valuations. Now try running it for various starting points and you find very different answer Nisiprius Two things, first popularity does negatively correlate with returns. All ...
by Browser
Tue Aug 26, 2014 9:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?
Replies: 45
Views: 2640

Re: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?

Browser traveling and don't have time but I am virtually certain that is wrong. I've run portfolios for example on DJ index and shown in past not that outcome, and done it many times for different periods Larry To clarify, the starting time for all portfolios was Jan, 1975. At least using the Simba...
by Browser
Mon Aug 25, 2014 6:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?
Replies: 45
Views: 2640

GMail successfully hacked 92% of the time

University researchers have found a way to hack gmail accounts successfully using Apps. Apple may also be vulnerable.

http://money.msn.com/money-video/default.aspx?from=gallery_en-us&videoid=0899df90-c92e-bc7d-8282-6f0be2c4cfcf&sf=Relevancy#4
by Browser
Mon Aug 25, 2014 2:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: GMail successfully hacked 92% of the time
Replies: 11
Views: 1895

Re: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?

It's interesting that since the peak of oil futures in 1974, due to the OPEC oil embargo, there has not been any period of time from 1 year to the full 40 years until 2013 that adding commodities to TSM would have improved annualized cumulative portfolio returns vs. holding TSM. This is based on the...
by Browser
Mon Aug 25, 2014 1:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?
Replies: 45
Views: 2640

Recalled baby crib - modify to donate to charity?

We've got one of the baby cribs with a removable side that was pulled off the market a few years ago for safety reasons. It has a sliding removable side. The safety issue involved the side pushing out allowing the baby's head to become trapped. It's a very nice crib and we'd like to donate it after ...
by Browser
Mon Aug 25, 2014 11:40 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recalled baby crib - modify to donate to charity?
Replies: 10
Views: 565

Re: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?

Browser you can disagree but doesn't change fact that you are incorrect. If correlations are low/negative enough and volatility high enough you can see outcomes with low volatility without negative impact on returns. In fact have shown that very thing here many times Larry I'm not disagreeing with ...
by Browser
Mon Aug 25, 2014 9:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?
Replies: 45
Views: 2640

Re: Good interview with John Bogle

It's as easy as 1, 2, 3: First, imagine that stocks are going to drop 50% or more tomorrow, Second, decide what allocation you could tolerate if this happened, and Third, make this your current allocation and leave it there. Apparently, this happened to Jack and he decided that 25% was the right ans...
by Browser
Sun Aug 24, 2014 10:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good interview with John Bogle
Replies: 34
Views: 3663

Re: Subaru Blues

You will likely NOT find many used Subarus for sale. If you do, they will cost you a lot because they do not depreciate in value. The actual facts are that the ALG residual value of the 2014 Subaru Forester is almost exactly the same as that for the Honda CRV and Toyota RAV4, for example. They depr...
by Browser
Sun Aug 24, 2014 2:14 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Subaru Blues
Replies: 75
Views: 5935

Re: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?

few things First Browser is simply wrong on low returning assets necessarily reducing returns. I've even seen cases of negative returning assets in efficient frontier outcomes due to very high volatility and negative correlation. And the data I have shown on portfolio returns has basically been lit...
by Browser
Sun Aug 24, 2014 2:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?
Replies: 45
Views: 2640

Re: No room on your Windows hard drive? Cleanup Update files

1,048,576 megabytes = 1 terabyte
by Browser
Sat Aug 23, 2014 5:07 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: No room on your Windows hard drive? Cleanup Update files
Replies: 47
Views: 3168

Re: look at small value etfs

Maybe the guy who wrote the linked article can explain it - does anybody vet these things? Looks like he reversed the digits to me.
by Browser
Sat Aug 23, 2014 1:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: look at small value etfs
Replies: 34
Views: 2939

Re: look at small value etfs

If you liked the dot.coms, you should be crazy about small caps right now. Their P/E is in nosebleed territory: The first thing that jumped at me was IWM’s price-earnings ratio (P/E) of 83. That’s more than four times the P/E of its sister ETF containing the top 1,000 companies the iShares Russell 1...
by Browser
Sat Aug 23, 2014 1:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: look at small value etfs
Replies: 34
Views: 2939

Re: No room on your Windows hard drive? Cleanup Update files

Why did it take hours to destroy the drive? One whack with a sledgehammer should have done it. :) I wouldn't trust a software erase anyway.
by Browser
Sat Aug 23, 2014 1:13 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: No room on your Windows hard drive? Cleanup Update files
Replies: 47
Views: 3168

Re: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?

heyyou If the CCF were in fact overwhelmed by institutional money please explain to us how the oil futures have been in large and persistent backwardation for well over a year--though it has been shrinking lately again. Larry It has been exactly like buying insurance, the premium has stayed gone. F...
by Browser
Sat Aug 23, 2014 1:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?
Replies: 45
Views: 2640

Re: look at small value etfs

Has anyone looked at WisdomTree's EES?
by Browser
Sat Aug 23, 2014 11:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: look at small value etfs
Replies: 34
Views: 2939

Re: No room on your Windows hard drive? Cleanup Update files

Afterwards, Norton told me that my computer downloaded a file named TrustedInstaller.exe that is 254Mb in size. Did a search and found that it is needed for installing Windows Updates. I guess that the purge removed it. I also found that this thing consumes a lot of processor power and slows system ...
by Browser
Sat Aug 23, 2014 10:42 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: No room on your Windows hard drive? Cleanup Update files
Replies: 47
Views: 3168

Re: 2014/2015 Honda Accord vs. 2014 Toyota Avalon

Of course, the Accord hybrid is a different beast from the gas-burning Accord. That said, I'm less than impressed with the reliability ratings that Consumer Reports is giving the Accord gas-burners (they don't rate the hybrid). By comparison, the Camry hybrid gets the highest reliability rating, and...
by Browser
Sat Aug 23, 2014 10:06 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2014/2015 Honda Accord vs. 2014 Toyota Avalon
Replies: 51
Views: 3639

Re: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?

Zero expected real return doesn't mean anything. What matters is how an asset mixes with the rest of the portfolio. Depending on the timing of the high degree of fluctuation, it can improve the results of a portfolio. That is the case being made by the proponents of commodities. I don't buy this ar...
by Browser
Sat Aug 23, 2014 9:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?
Replies: 45
Views: 2640

Re: No room on your Windows hard drive? Cleanup Update files

If you haven't done this yet, be advised the restart (which it did not prompt for) on my computer took perhaps 1/2 hour, with 2 of the "configuring, do not shut your computer off" messages lasting maybe 15 minutes each. Very unusual and unnerving, and would have been a minor disaster if I...
by Browser
Sat Aug 23, 2014 9:38 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: No room on your Windows hard drive? Cleanup Update files
Replies: 47
Views: 3168

Re: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?

One problem with PCRIX is that it's returns are correlated to the returns of TIPS used as collateral. Since October, 2006 the correlation has averaged 0.25 and ranged as high as .80. By comparison, the correlation between the DJP etf (which uses the same commodity index as PCRIX) and TIP has average...
by Browser
Fri Aug 22, 2014 11:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?
Replies: 45
Views: 2640

Re: No room on your Windows hard drive? Cleanup Update files

Went through the process described in the article, but the option "Windows Update Cleanup" does not appear so I can't select it. How come? Be sure not to leave out the step to run Disk Cleanup as Administrator. I skipped that the first time I tried, and the Windows Update Cleanup option d...
by Browser
Fri Aug 22, 2014 6:13 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: No room on your Windows hard drive? Cleanup Update files
Replies: 47
Views: 3168

Re: No room on your Windows hard drive? Cleanup Update files

Went through the process described in the article, but the option "Windows Update Cleanup" does not appear so I can't select it. How come?
by Browser
Fri Aug 22, 2014 3:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: No room on your Windows hard drive? Cleanup Update files
Replies: 47
Views: 3168

Re: look at small value etfs

Why no PXSV in the article? And no mention of the number of holdings, which might be relevant if considering RZV.
by Browser
Fri Aug 22, 2014 12:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: look at small value etfs
Replies: 34
Views: 2939

Re: Subaru Blues

You will likely NOT find many used Subarus for sale. If you do, they will cost you a lot because they do not depreciate in value. The actual facts are that the ALG residual value of the 2014 Subaru Forester is almost exactly the same as that for the Honda CRV and Toyota RAV4, for example. They depr...
by Browser
Fri Aug 22, 2014 12:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Subaru Blues
Replies: 75
Views: 5935

Re: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?

Was just looking into this using Simba's spreadsheet. I think you'll find that commodities are a poor long term investment, although they might help to hedge certain short-term equity drawdowns (not in 2008, however). I compared 100% VFINX (S&P 500 index fund) returns to the returns with 90%, 80...
by Browser
Fri Aug 22, 2014 12:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?
Replies: 45
Views: 2640

Re: 2015 Volvo XC-60 vs. Acura RDX

Acura wins hands down if you care most about long term reliability and lower cost of repairs. I see in Consumer Reports the reliability of the 2013 RDX (first year of the current version) is 4/5 or above average. JD Power gives the 2013 and 2014 RDX 4/5 rating for vehicle dependability as well. The...
by Browser
Fri Aug 22, 2014 11:55 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2015 Volvo XC-60 vs. Acura RDX
Replies: 14
Views: 851

Re: Want to buy a used Mini Cooper-> Talk me into it?

Oh -- here's some interesting info about the Mini's reliability for those still misinformed:

http://autos.jdpower.com/ratings/2014-Vehicle-Dependability-Study-Press-Release.htm

Dead Last.
by Browser
Fri Aug 22, 2014 8:33 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Want to buy a used Mini Cooper-> Talk me into it?
Replies: 25
Views: 1702

Re: Want to buy a used Mini Cooper-> Talk me into it?

I must say that the comments on this thread make me glad I don't own a mini. Very cute car but that's about it from what I can see.
by Browser
Thu Aug 21, 2014 10:20 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Want to buy a used Mini Cooper-> Talk me into it?
Replies: 25
Views: 1702
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