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Left tail portfolio - 70% bonds. Good idea?

The left tail portfolio that has been discussed on the board is generally a small allocation to SCV stocks with a large allocation to bonds; e.g., 30% SCV and 70% bonds (e.g., intermediate Treasurys). Right now a 70% allocation to bonds seems kinda scary if interest rates start going up. What about ...
by Browser
Wed Sep 17, 2014 5:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Left tail portfolio - 70% bonds. Good idea?
Replies: 22
Views: 995

Re: Car-Certified Lexus LS 460 Vs New ES 350 Vs New RX 350

livesoft wrote:
mbk734 wrote:Just remember you are paying extra for the L on your grill!

No 20-year-old co-ed has ever said to me, "Oooooh! You drive a Honda Pilot!"

Do you drive one?
by Browser
Wed Sep 17, 2014 10:41 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Car-Certified Lexus LS 460 Vs New ES 350 Vs New RX 350
Replies: 48
Views: 2436

2015 Audi Q5 Volvo XC60: Timing belt or chain?

Doing my due diligence on a few small SUVs. Comparing 2015 Acura RDX, Audi Q5, and Volvo XC60. I already know that the RDX uses a timing belt but am interested in whether the Audi Q5 and Volvo XC60 with 2.0 engine do also. Hard to uncover reliable info on this via google search so hoping there are s...
by Browser
Tue Sep 16, 2014 11:49 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2015 Audi Q5 Volvo XC60: Timing belt or chain?
Replies: 2
Views: 159

Re: Consumer Cellular with 4G-LTE android smartphone

H2O doesn't offer 4G-LTE, but offers HSPA+ (sometimes called 4G). I notice that my data speeds do seem faster with 4G-LTE on Consumer Cellular compared to HSPA+ on H2O. I used an app called Speedtest and found that the download speeds were actually 4 times as fast with LTE compared to HSPA+ on H2O, ...
by Browser
Tue Sep 16, 2014 8:58 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Consumer Cellular with 4G-LTE android smartphone
Replies: 40
Views: 4808

Re: AT&T mvno Airvoice or cricket wireless

mikep wrote:Cricket is fine, one issue is you have to dial 10 digits for all numbers, but other than that no complaints. Wife's plan is increasing from 2.5 GB to 3 GB.

That's weird. Even in the same area code as your cellphone number?
by Browser
Mon Sep 15, 2014 11:17 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: AT&T mvno Airvoice or cricket wireless
Replies: 13
Views: 708

Re: Consumer Cellular with 4G-LTE android smartphone

I've been trying out Consumer Cellular wireless service the last couple of months. I just upgraded to a Moto-X smartphone, which is 4G-LTE capable. Consumer Cellular says that it now supports the iPhone5 running 4G-LTE, but they don't say anything about 4G-LTE androids, and a CC service rep told me...
by Browser
Mon Sep 15, 2014 11:14 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Consumer Cellular with 4G-LTE android smartphone
Replies: 40
Views: 4808

Re: You may want to rethink the odds of ever needing LTCi

Not sure I agree with the scary tale of Medicaid-only nursing homes. Browser, you don't have to agree with me, but I can tell you from first hand experience of patients we see from some of these nursing homes. There are very very few good ones out there. Frankly, I am scared. How do I know? I take ...
by Browser
Mon Sep 15, 2014 8:29 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: You may want to rethink the odds of ever needing LTCi
Replies: 58
Views: 4899

Re: Car-Certified Lexus LS 460 Vs New ES 350 Vs New RX 350

I'll check out those links. I can hope that the only maintenance will be oil changes, that sort of thing, but I thought there was a regular maintenance schedule, 15K, 30K, that sort of thing. Posted in the owner's manual. Has that changed? But I'm also worried about unscheduled maintenance that migh...
by Browser
Mon Sep 15, 2014 8:07 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Car-Certified Lexus LS 460 Vs New ES 350 Vs New RX 350
Replies: 48
Views: 2436

Re: Consumer Cellular with 4G-LTE android smartphone

Glad that everything is working OK. I've been through the wars configuring smartphones for 2 or 3 different MVNOs and have done the trial-and-error thing. Have you tested your MMS yet? (sending picture messages, that sort of thing). That's where most people get hung up.
by Browser
Mon Sep 15, 2014 7:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Consumer Cellular with 4G-LTE android smartphone
Replies: 40
Views: 4808

Re: Car-Certified Lexus LS 460 Vs New ES 350 Vs New RX 350

I've not owned a Lexus, so don't really know much about the maintenance costs, except that I ran into a couple who had just purchased a new Acura RDX I was asking them about. They were former Lexus owners who liked their vehicles but were tired of the $80 oil changes and other expensive maintenance ...
by Browser
Mon Sep 15, 2014 10:45 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Car-Certified Lexus LS 460 Vs New ES 350 Vs New RX 350
Replies: 48
Views: 2436

Re: AT&T mvno Airvoice or cricket wireless

Since ATT owns Cricket, I don't completely trust these guys to begin with. How difficult is it to quit their service? IMO, the easier it is to get in and out the better I like an MVNO. It's real easy to get in and out of H2O, so that's a plus for them. It's not quite as easy with AirVoice, since you...
by Browser
Mon Sep 15, 2014 10:35 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: AT&T mvno Airvoice or cricket wireless
Replies: 13
Views: 708

Re: The dangerous practice of rebalancing...

For me it comes down to figuring out how much I want to be holding in my "savings", or long-term living expenses account, and the rest can be gambled in the Wall Street Casino in the hopes that the risk premium Gods will smile down on me. The savings account is comprised of low-risk assets...
by Browser
Mon Sep 15, 2014 10:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dangerous practice of rebalancing...
Replies: 180
Views: 10743

Re: An Interesting Correlation

Why would you pay an expense ratio to hold a treasury fund? There is no diversifying among issuers with treasury funds like there is with corporates. iShares participates in security lending in their treasury funds (including TLT). They claim that this boosts returns but it is not enough to counter...
by Browser
Mon Sep 15, 2014 10:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An Interesting Correlation
Replies: 22
Views: 1798

Re: AT&T mvno Airvoice or cricket wireless

I believe the GSM bands abroad are 900/1800 and in the U.S. are 850/1900. Most GSM phones support all four bands, but older ones might not. So you need to check if yours supports 900/1800 to use it abroad.
by Browser
Mon Sep 15, 2014 9:54 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: AT&T mvno Airvoice or cricket wireless
Replies: 13
Views: 708

Re: AT&T mvno Airvoice or cricket wireless

You might also consider H2O Wireless. I recently used them and would probably go back if I can solve a problem with Google Voice. They have a $30 plan with unlimited voice and MMS and 500 Mb. data - same as AirVoice. If you go on autopay that drops to $27/month. It also has service on ATT prepaid ne...
by Browser
Mon Sep 15, 2014 9:48 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: AT&T mvno Airvoice or cricket wireless
Replies: 13
Views: 708

Re: AT&T mvno Airvoice or cricket wireless

My wife just switched her ATT, Samsung Galaxy Note 1 to Cricket, about 2 months ago and it has been error free. The same plan, $35.00/month. I had to take it into the Cricket store and they made the changes, swapped out the SIM, or whatever. They had to do something in the setup that I was not payi...
by Browser
Mon Sep 15, 2014 9:27 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: AT&T mvno Airvoice or cricket wireless
Replies: 13
Views: 708

Re: An Interesting Correlation

There's no reason to hold EDV if you are a fan of the Permanent Portfolio. Since the PP holds an equal percentage of Long term Treasurys and Treasury bills, the effective duration is about the same as an intermediate term (5-10 year) treasury fund or ETF. Save yourself the time and extra cost by hol...
by Browser
Sun Sep 14, 2014 9:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An Interesting Correlation
Replies: 22
Views: 1798

Re: AT&T mvno Airvoice or cricket wireless

I've been an AirVoice user in the past and they were fine - I had the $30 plan. My phone is unlocked, but I understand you can use an AT&T phone on either Cricket or AirVoice without unlocking it. It should make no difference if you are using a locked or unlocked phone as far as your service on ...
by Browser
Sun Sep 14, 2014 8:23 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: AT&T mvno Airvoice or cricket wireless
Replies: 13
Views: 708

Re: Car-Certified Lexus LS 460 Vs New ES 350 Vs New RX 350

Where you live, who is going to do the maintenance on a Lexus? As I recall, the warranty for Lexus is 4 years, so you might have a little left on a 2011 but it will need to go to a Lexus dealer for warranty service I imagine. Also, another poster mentioned the sky high maintenance costs on Lexus, wh...
by Browser
Sun Sep 14, 2014 8:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Car-Certified Lexus LS 460 Vs New ES 350 Vs New RX 350
Replies: 48
Views: 2436

Re: You may want to rethink the odds of ever needing LTCi

Not sure I agree with the scary tale of Medicaid-only nursing homes. I'm no expert in the subject, but am under the impression that most nursing homes have both private pay and medicaid patients. I don't know the typical ratios, and maybe there are some nursing homes that have a much higher proporti...
by Browser
Sun Sep 14, 2014 7:21 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: You may want to rethink the odds of ever needing LTCi
Replies: 58
Views: 4899

Re: The dangerous practice of rebalancing...

You aren't taking the same risk if the market tanks and, as a result, you transfer money from your safe reserve (bonds) into the riskier asset (stocks). Now the balance in your safe reserve has been drawn down. How can you have the same level of safety with your portfolio that you had before? If sto...
by Browser
Sun Sep 14, 2014 11:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dangerous practice of rebalancing...
Replies: 180
Views: 10743

Re: An Interesting Correlation

There's a similar negative correlation between 3-7 year treasurys and TSM. Since 2009 (date of inception of EDV), the CAGR,SD, Worst Year, and Max Drawdown from 50/50 TSM/Treasury have all been better with intermediate treasurys (IEI) than with EDV. Correlations don't tell the whole story: ________I...
by Browser
Sun Sep 14, 2014 11:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An Interesting Correlation
Replies: 22
Views: 1798

Re: An Interesting Correlation

Tricky business, relying on correlations to guide your investments. Just when you need them most.... :oops:
by Browser
Sun Sep 14, 2014 10:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An Interesting Correlation
Replies: 22
Views: 1798

Re: You may want to rethink the odds of ever needing LTCi

Considering the usual advice is to purchase it while you are still in your fifties - and you still can - how about this instead. Invest in aggressive growth funds whatever you would pay in premiums for this very expensive type of insurance policy for about, say, 15 or 20 years, then use it as the e...
by Browser
Sat Sep 13, 2014 11:41 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: You may want to rethink the odds of ever needing LTCi
Replies: 58
Views: 4899

Re: I've never been a fan of commodity funds

Here's an interesting factoid, FWIW. While DJP has given up 52% since 7/2000, gold is actually up by 30% since then. Go figure. 30%? If "7/2000" means July of 2000, then gold is up more like 300%, not 30%. And one should not expect gold to act like a commodity, that is, something that is ...
by Browser
Sat Sep 13, 2014 11:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I've never been a fan of commodity funds
Replies: 28
Views: 2119

Re: The dangerous practice of rebalancing...

I was playing around with the 60/40 allocation using Simba's spreadsheet. Starting in 1972 and not rebalancing, it was the end of 1992 (21 years) before the stock allocation would have drifted just above 70%. At the end of 1998, the equity allocation of an unrebalanced portfolio would have drifted a...
by Browser
Sat Sep 13, 2014 11:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dangerous practice of rebalancing...
Replies: 180
Views: 10743

Re: I've never been a fan of commodity funds

Here's an interesting factoid, FWIW. While DJP has given up 52% since 7/2000, gold is actually up by 30% since then. Go figure.
by Browser
Sat Sep 13, 2014 10:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I've never been a fan of commodity funds
Replies: 28
Views: 2119

Re: I've never been a fan of commodity funds

I have shares in a Fidelity 2025 Freedom Fund in lieu of company contributions into a frozen cash balance pension plan. This fund used to have 7% of it's holdings in a commodities fund not too long ago, I recently checked again and the percentage invested in that commodities fund was down to 1%. Ev...
by Browser
Sat Sep 13, 2014 10:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I've never been a fan of commodity funds
Replies: 28
Views: 2119

Re: Buffett: Modern investment theory is horse-pucky

How do folks rectify their tilts with EMH? It seems contradictory. Of course it is. It's based on the notion that there are certain unexplainable "anomalies" in the efficient market hypothesis that for some unexplainable reason are likely to persist into the future. If you invest in one o...
by Browser
Sat Sep 13, 2014 10:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett: Modern investment theory is horse-pucky
Replies: 119
Views: 8868

Re: The dangerous practice of rebalancing...

William Sharpe on rebalancing: William Sharpe (WS): I think, by and large, people probably shouldn’t do it. In particular, rebalancing by selling winners and buying losers. Basically, if you’re going to sell your winners and buy your losers, then you have to trade with someone. And that person has t...
by Browser
Sat Sep 13, 2014 10:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dangerous practice of rebalancing...
Replies: 180
Views: 10743

Re: Buffett: Modern investment theory is horse-pucky

Maybe Buffett should call EMH, the "Efficient Malarkey Hypothesis".
by Browser
Sat Sep 13, 2014 9:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett: Modern investment theory is horse-pucky
Replies: 119
Views: 8868

Re: You may want to rethink the odds of ever needing LTCi

So why Don't we see recommendations not to buy homeowners insurance? Actually I thought about this a fair bit. Reasons I came up with: 1. Cost for a LCTi policy is often much higher than homeowner's. That means the lifestyle tradeoff may be negligible in one case and substantial in the other. 2. LT...
by Browser
Sat Sep 13, 2014 9:32 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: You may want to rethink the odds of ever needing LTCi
Replies: 58
Views: 4899

You may want to rethink the odds of ever needing LTCi

we may want to re-think estimates of the lifetime risk of nursing-home care in light of the CMS data. What matters is not the lifetime risk of care but the lifetime risk of care that you have to pay for. A recent study by Michael Hurd, Pierre-Carl Michaud and Susann Rohwedder estimated that men and...
by Browser
Sat Sep 13, 2014 7:13 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: You may want to rethink the odds of ever needing LTCi
Replies: 58
Views: 4899

Re: Consumer Cellular with 4G-LTE android smartphone

Shadow_Dancer : Well, I found that I'm not able to send MMS messages (thought I could). So I obviously have to enter the correct MMS settings into my configuration. I tried the ones I had before, which Wizard reinterated, and not able to get MMS messaging to work correctly so far. I'll keep you post...
by Browser
Sat Sep 13, 2014 5:46 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Consumer Cellular with 4G-LTE android smartphone
Replies: 40
Views: 4808

Re: The dangerous practice of rebalancing...

So, let's look at some illustrative data. Mr. I. Rebalance invests $1000 in 1972, as does Mr. I. NoRebalance. They both decide to allocate 60% to TSM and 40% to 5 Year Treasurys using Vanguard funds. Mr. Rebalance resests his allocation to 60/40 each year, while Mr. NoRebalance lets it ride. We flas...
by Browser
Sat Sep 13, 2014 5:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dangerous practice of rebalancing...
Replies: 180
Views: 10743

Re: Consumer Cellular with 4G-LTE android smartphone

I have a Moto-X on Consumer Cellular. To set up the APN settings for it: Touch Settings Under Data usage, touch More... Touch Mobile Networks Touch Access Point names Touch the "plus" at top right. This puts you into the screen where you can enter the APN settings Here are my settings: Nam...
by Browser
Sat Sep 13, 2014 10:17 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Consumer Cellular with 4G-LTE android smartphone
Replies: 40
Views: 4808

Re: The dangerous practice of rebalancing...

Bogle says that rebalancing doesn't really make much difference in your long run outcome but if it makes you feel better then do it - not a big whoop one way or tother, just do whatever the heck floats your boat and quit trying to convince everyone who doesn't do what you do that they're stoopid. :x
by Browser
Fri Sep 12, 2014 10:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dangerous practice of rebalancing...
Replies: 180
Views: 10743

Re: Buffett: Modern investment theory is horse-pucky

The reason that all investors could theoretically own "the market" (i.e. cap-weighted TSM index) is that there is literally an infinite supply of "shares" of the total market. No other investment option has this characteristic.
by Browser
Fri Sep 12, 2014 5:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett: Modern investment theory is horse-pucky
Replies: 119
Views: 8868

Re: Let me get this straight about SCV & factor diversificat

Browser, based on your various posts, it seems like sticking with total market investing probably is an appropriate choice for you. Probably also for many if not most others. Are you really struggling with this, or just looking to confirm your bias toward total market investing (no negative inferen...
by Browser
Fri Sep 12, 2014 5:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Let me get this straight about SCV & factor diversification
Replies: 152
Views: 8150

Re: Buffett: Modern investment theory is horse-pucky

But to actually purchase it someone else must sell their shares (at least in the same way as for any other mutual fund). Just as with holding any deviation from the total market - someone is taking the other side of the trade and giving up their shares. That would seem to imply that there are a fix...
by Browser
Fri Sep 12, 2014 4:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett: Modern investment theory is horse-pucky
Replies: 119
Views: 8868

Re: Buffett: Modern investment theory is horse-pucky

He has a long history of advocating GrahamandDoddsville over the EMH with no qualifications about the limit on the number investors who can do it Whether or not you are using Modern Financial Engineering vs. Graham &Doddsville would not seem to distinguish how many investors can crowd into the ...
by Browser
Fri Sep 12, 2014 3:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett: Modern investment theory is horse-pucky
Replies: 119
Views: 8868

Re: Buffett: Modern investment theory is horse-pucky

He has a long history of advocating GrahamandDoddsville over the EMH with no qualifications about the limit on the number investors who can do it Whether or not you are using Modern Financial Engineering vs. Graham &Doddsville would not seem to distinguish how many investors can crowd into the ...
by Browser
Fri Sep 12, 2014 3:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett: Modern investment theory is horse-pucky
Replies: 119
Views: 8868

Re: Should I care about large cap value?

Good Lord! I've stumbled across the perfect investment - VIVAX. No downside with a chance of some big upside. The Holy Grail. I'll ring off now -- got to call my broker.
by Browser
Fri Sep 12, 2014 3:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I care about large cap value?
Replies: 17
Views: 1088

Re: Buffett: Modern investment theory is horse-pucky

tadamsmar wrote:The notion that everyone can move over to GrahamandDoddsville and beat the market is horse-pucky.

But I guess it's possible that it's not too crowded over there yet, huh?:

http://www.grahamanddoddsville.net/

Who had that notion? That isn't what Buffett is saying at all is it?
by Browser
Fri Sep 12, 2014 2:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett: Modern investment theory is horse-pucky
Replies: 119
Views: 8868

Re: Let me get this straight about SCV & factor diversificat

ketawa & jaab - thanks for your insights regarding VIVAX. Bottom line, what bothers me is that in order to justify investing in a particular LCV fund or ETF you have to sort through a bizillion funds that all call themselves LCV or are classified as such by M* or others. Waaay too touchy and fut...
by Browser
Fri Sep 12, 2014 1:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Let me get this straight about SCV & factor diversification
Replies: 152
Views: 8150

Re: I've never been a fan of commodity funds

As I never tire of posting: the long-term portfolio returns when there is an allocation to commodities/gold/whatever are lower to the degree corresponding to the percentage allocated. These assets might help to cut short-term tail risk, but they do so at the expense of cutting long-term returns. An...
by Browser
Fri Sep 12, 2014 1:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I've never been a fan of commodity funds
Replies: 28
Views: 2119

Re: I've never been a fan of commodity funds

As I never tire of posting: the long-term portfolio returns when there is an allocation to commodities/gold/whatever are lower to the degree corresponding to the percentage allocated. These assets might help to cut short-term tail risk, but they do so at the expense of cutting long-term returns. And...
by Browser
Fri Sep 12, 2014 1:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I've never been a fan of commodity funds
Replies: 28
Views: 2119

Re: Should I care about large cap value?

It might be worth pointing out that the 1972-1976 period of outperformance of LCV (data from Simba) is based on the Fama-French research data, which is the return of the cheapest third of stocks sorted by price/book minus the most expensive third (High minus Low, or HmL). From 1979-1992, the data wa...
by Browser
Fri Sep 12, 2014 1:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I care about large cap value?
Replies: 17
Views: 1088

Re: Should I care about large cap value?

Well, it seems to me that TSM is the default choice unless there's a compelling reason to do something else that justifies betting against the total market. In my mind a short period of outperformance that happened four decades ago isn't a compelling reason. I'm sure I can find something else that i...
by Browser
Fri Sep 12, 2014 12:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I care about large cap value?
Replies: 17
Views: 1088
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