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Should market valuations be completely disregarded?

Stock valuations have been a much discussed topic recently, since most conventional valuation measures such as CAPE are at the high end. The boglehead consensus seems to be that valuations have no value; it is what it is, stay the course. Poo-poo to gurus such as Shiller, Grantham, Hussman, and all ...
by Browser
Tue Jul 22, 2014 4:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should market valuations be completely disregarded?
Replies: 6
Views: 316

Re: Establishing a dementia trust

If all you want is someone to take over when needed, you don't need a trust. A power of attorney is sufficient. If you trust the agent, the power of attorney can be effective immediately, so you don't need any doctor certifications. If you want to protect against someone swindling you, you can crea...
by Browser
Tue Jul 22, 2014 3:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Establishing a dementia trust
Replies: 8
Views: 564

Establishing a dementia trust

I recently became aware that an older individual or couple can establish a living trust that is designed to manage their finances in the event they either wish to turn over management to the trustee as they become aged or they become incompetent. My situation is such that this might make sense for m...
by Browser
Tue Jul 22, 2014 2:32 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Establishing a dementia trust
Replies: 8
Views: 564

What about the 2015 Volvo XC60?

I've been researching SUVs for awhile and just ran across the 2015 Volvo XC60. Looks like this is refreshed or redesigned from 2014. Nice looking vehicle and the size and specs put it in the same category as 5-passenger SUVs like the 2015 Subaru Outback, Acura RDX, maybe Nissan Murano, and Lexus as ...
by Browser
Mon Jul 21, 2014 7:04 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What about the 2015 Volvo XC60?
Replies: 6
Views: 611

Re: Faber: S&P 500 an Active Fund in Drag

Haven't heard the S&P called an active fund, but I have heard it referred to as a "roach motel": where good stocks go to die; they check in alive and check out dead. In the old Black Flag commercials for their “Roach Motel” product, their slogan was “the bugs check in, but they don’t c...
by Browser
Sun Jul 20, 2014 10:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Faber: S&P 500 an Active Fund in Drag
Replies: 45
Views: 3235

Re: $32k Subaru Outback or $14k Mitsubishi Outlander Sport

My one problem with the Outback is that it's really a wagon and not a SUV. I like the higher occupant seating position in a SUV and don't know about sinking back into the masses with a lower-profile vehicle.
by Browser
Fri Jul 18, 2014 11:23 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: $32k Subaru Outback or $14k Mitsubishi Outlander Sport
Replies: 37
Views: 3760

Do any bogleheads hold the "Larry Portfolio?"

With all the discussion about Larry Swedroe's SCV tilt portfolio on the board, I'm curious whether anyone besides Larry actually holds this portfolio allocation and how they're feeling about it. It's a curiously un-bogle like allocation. As I understand, we're talking about a split of approximately ...
by Browser
Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do any bogleheads hold the "Larry Portfolio?"
Replies: 18
Views: 2318

Re: Adding Backup Boot Disk - Windows 7 - Clone or Image?

Now I really am surprised by the time it took me. Wonder what's going on?
by Browser
Fri Jul 18, 2014 12:47 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Adding Backup Boot Disk - Windows 7 - Clone or Image?
Replies: 13
Views: 946

Re: Driving from Rockford, il to Mesa AZ....best route.

The route down I-17 will probably be faster; although taking 87 would be shorter and probably pretty scenic, though 17 is very scenic also particularly when you pass the Sedona Red Rocks area. I've never taken 87, as my destination is the west side. Be sure to avoid arriving in Phoenix after about 3...
by Browser
Fri Jul 18, 2014 11:29 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Driving from Rockford, il to Mesa AZ....best route.
Replies: 16
Views: 1497

Re: Driving from Rockford, il to Mesa AZ....best route.

It's pretty much a no-brainer from Rockford to Mesa, IMO. Find your way to I-88 West, which turns into I-80. Keep going until you hit I-35. Follow that South until you hit I-40. Or, you can take Hwy 54 at Wichita to avoid going through Okla City, which is 400 miles of two-lane highway through Kansas...
by Browser
Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:26 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Driving from Rockford, il to Mesa AZ....best route.
Replies: 16
Views: 1497

Re: Adding Backup Boot Disk - Windows 7 - Clone or Image?

I wanted to find out if an image backup would really work in the event of a hard drive failure on my Win7 laptop. Used the Win7 image backup utility to create a boot DVD and then did the image backup to an external WD hard drive. Then I bought another hard drive for my laptop (500 GB, the original w...
by Browser
Thu Jul 17, 2014 11:04 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Adding Backup Boot Disk - Windows 7 - Clone or Image?
Replies: 13
Views: 946

Re: New vehicle...GMC Acadia, Chevy Traverse, or Buick Encla

Agree with others on the Highlander based on my test drive experience. Liked it a lot. Except for the looks. GM cars are a lot more appealing to me in terms of styling. That big, dumb grille on the Highlander bugs me and I don't like the sculpted metal curves much either. But I guess you have to fol...
by Browser
Thu Jul 17, 2014 10:41 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New vehicle...GMC Acadia, Chevy Traverse, or Buick Enclave?
Replies: 57
Views: 4228

Re: $32k Subaru Outback or $14k Mitsubishi Outlander Sport

Yep, test drive a bunch of cars and be patient about buying. For instance, a CPO used Lexus RX350 with all kinds of safety features and park assist, etc is within your price range. I've never liked the idea of buying a car with someone else's DNA and bodily fluids deposited everywhere, so I've alwa...
by Browser
Wed Jul 16, 2014 10:07 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: $32k Subaru Outback or $14k Mitsubishi Outlander Sport
Replies: 37
Views: 3760

Re: Bet it ALL on Small Cap Value when you're young

Of course TSM is not the most efficient portfolio. Of course I can hold a more efficient portfolio by underweighting and overweighting various subsectors in the stock market, if I happen to know what those are going to be at any given time. That's what active managers do all the time, but we know ho...
by Browser
Wed Jul 16, 2014 10:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bet it ALL on Small Cap Value when you're young
Replies: 64
Views: 6029

Re: $32k Subaru Outback or $14k Mitsubishi Outlander Sport

Have you driven the 15 Outback? Supposed to have improved ride and quietness from the 14.
by Browser
Wed Jul 16, 2014 9:49 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: $32k Subaru Outback or $14k Mitsubishi Outlander Sport
Replies: 37
Views: 3760

Re: Driving from Rockford, il to Mesa AZ....best route.

Have you heard of Mapquest or Google Maps?
by Browser
Wed Jul 16, 2014 9:46 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Driving from Rockford, il to Mesa AZ....best route.
Replies: 16
Views: 1497

Re: New vehicle...GMC Acadia, Chevy Traverse, or Buick Encla

Check out this comparison by Motor Trend:

http://www.motortrend.com/roadtests/suvs/1408_the_big_test_2014_three_row_crossovers/viewall.html

Winner: Dodge Durango
2nd: Highlander
3rd: Pathfinder
4th: Santa Fe
5th: Pilot
6th: Mazda CX-9
by Browser
Tue Jul 15, 2014 7:13 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New vehicle...GMC Acadia, Chevy Traverse, or Buick Enclave?
Replies: 57
Views: 4228

Re: New vehicle...GMC Acadia, Chevy Traverse, or Buick Encla

What about the Nissan Pathfinder? Have you checked that one out? Has some nice specs and the ride and interior is first class in Nissan SUVs. Good mileage figures as well. Wait for the 2016 Pilot unless you're in a rush. The current gen box will be outclassed by the new Pilot, which should be equiva...
by Browser
Tue Jul 15, 2014 7:05 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New vehicle...GMC Acadia, Chevy Traverse, or Buick Enclave?
Replies: 57
Views: 4228

Re: Bet it ALL on Small Cap Value when you're young

If BETA is the enemy, why not a low-beta fund or allocating to low-beta sectors: consumer durables, heathcare, and utilities?
by Browser
Tue Jul 15, 2014 6:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bet it ALL on Small Cap Value when you're young
Replies: 64
Views: 6029

Re: Oil Change due: Synthetic vs Regular Oil

Some great info here, thanx.
by Browser
Tue Jul 15, 2014 12:32 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Oil Change due: Synthetic vs Regular Oil
Replies: 33
Views: 2722

Re: Cellular Service Surcharges, Taxes, and Fees

Welcome to the club! I have no idea why CC charges those fees and taxes -- same as you pay on-contract. Mine run about 15% or more of the base monthly bill. My only guess is that they are the only AT&T MVNO that I know of that provides the same network (including partner roaming and 4G-LTE) that...
by Browser
Mon Jul 14, 2014 6:17 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cellular Service Surcharges, Taxes, and Fees
Replies: 3
Views: 600

Re: Larry: 20 Dollar Bills and Factor Persistence

Finally, never get me to argue that a TSM portfolio isn't a perfectly reasonable one. I just don't think it's the most efficient. But that's my opinion of course As they say, a difference of opinion makes a market. Plenty of credible opinion on the other side of the argument. How it could come to p...
by Browser
Mon Jul 14, 2014 6:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry: 20 Dollar Bills and Factor Persistence
Replies: 82
Views: 6714

Re: Bet it ALL on Small Cap Value when you're young

Not so far off from what Bill Bernstein has suggested in "Ages of the Investor". However, he cautions: Are you willing to tilt it all the way towards small and value only? The value premium is fickle enough. Since 1926, it has yielded negative returns for as long as 15 years. The small pre...
by Browser
Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bet it ALL on Small Cap Value when you're young
Replies: 64
Views: 6029

Re: Larry: 20 Dollar Bills and Factor Persistence

Browser How about flipping it the other way, if you cannot distinguish them why would you want to have all your eggs in one factor basket (beta)? Given that the prudent strategy in the presence of uncertainty is diversification of risks why concentrate when you have no more confidence in the beta p...
by Browser
Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry: 20 Dollar Bills and Factor Persistence
Replies: 82
Views: 6714

Re: Larry: 20 Dollar Bills and Factor Persistence

William Sharpe describes an exercise he performs with his students. He asks them to set up a spreadsheet based on price data with a known, actual risk premium of 5.5%. He then asks them to generate 1000 series of random returns from that distribution over 50-year periods and compute the observed ris...
by Browser
Mon Jul 14, 2014 10:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry: 20 Dollar Bills and Factor Persistence
Replies: 82
Views: 6714

Re: Who else hates choosing a car?

Hadn't heard this mention of transmission problems in V-6 Hondas before. But I have heard of problems with the variable-cylinder-management (VCM) system in V-6 Hondas, in which there have been complaints of oil use, plug fouling, noise, shudder related to the on/off of cylinders. Has anyone experien...
by Browser
Mon Jul 14, 2014 9:27 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who else hates choosing a car?
Replies: 75
Views: 6255

Re: Larry: 20 Dollar Bills and Factor Persistence

Larry - since value, small, or small value can underperform for years and will do so in the future, and because - as you state - there's no guarantee these premiums will persist in the future - isn't there a prospective dilemma for investors if (when) their factor-based investment allocations stay d...
by Browser
Mon Jul 14, 2014 9:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry: 20 Dollar Bills and Factor Persistence
Replies: 82
Views: 6714

Cheapest Win7 image backup media solution?

I'm looking to do an image backup of the hard drive on a new laptop using the Win 7 backup utility. Looks like the size of the backup file will be at least 48G. That would require about 10 DVDs and a whole bunch of time, so I'm looking for another option that is cheapest. Cost for an external hard d...
by Browser
Sun Jul 13, 2014 11:20 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cheapest Win7 image backup media solution?
Replies: 8
Views: 557

Re: Who else hates choosing a car?

Wait for the 2015 Nissan Murano. Anything but boring looking -- maybe the opposite. Due out this fall. You'll have to wait another year for the new Pilot - I thought the thing was due out this year, but the samo box. 2015 Subaru Outback is looking a little better, particularly the interior and the e...
by Browser
Sat Jul 12, 2014 10:25 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who else hates choosing a car?
Replies: 75
Views: 6255

Re: Is Market on "Wrong Side of History"?

Our most recent data indicate the current price level of the S&P 500 is about 33% above its four year moving average price, which is exactly one standard deviation from the mean going back to 1931. We point this out to highlight two facts: 1) history suggests that stock prices could continue to...
by Browser
Fri Jul 11, 2014 10:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Market on "Wrong Side of History"?
Replies: 22
Views: 2679

Re: Want international exposure? You already have it.

Interesting comparison of 100% U.S. to 50% U.S./ 50% EAFE using John Bogle's Telltale Chart method for 1972-2013. Shows clearly that diversifying with EAFE generally helped compound portfolio returns from 1972-1988 (17 years) and has generally hurt returns ever since (25 years). Corresponds to the r...
by Browser
Fri Jul 11, 2014 10:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Want international exposure? You already have it.
Replies: 65
Views: 6279

Re: Want international exposure? You already have it.

It always comes down the the "insurance" argument when the case can't be made for improved absolute or risk-adjusted returns. Commodities, gold, EAFE: insurance against bad stuff happening. I'm not persuaded that investing in any of this stuff is justified on that basis. The U.S. is NOT go...
by Browser
Thu Jul 10, 2014 10:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Want international exposure? You already have it.
Replies: 65
Views: 6279

Re: Want international exposure? You already have it.

That's the same in principal as saying a domestically diversified portfolio will own the next Enron, so stick to a company you 'know' won't be the next Enron. Hardly. In 1989 Japanese stocks comprised 60% of the EAFE index. The EAFE lost 23.3% in 1990, while Europe only lost 3.4% so there was more ...
by Browser
Wed Jul 09, 2014 12:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Want international exposure? You already have it.
Replies: 65
Views: 6279

Re: Want international exposure? You already have it.

Of course, don't forget that global diversification guarantees that you'll own the next Japan and it's more likely to be some country other than the U.S. If the next Japan does turn out to be the U.S. what are the odds that global diversification across stock markets will save your bacon? About as h...
by Browser
Wed Jul 09, 2014 10:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Want international exposure? You already have it.
Replies: 65
Views: 6279

Re: Want international exposure? You already have it.

Thank you, Nisiprius. I've long wondered whether international diversification amounts to sector diversification, and your post indicates that the answer is "maybe, yes." The story is perhaps much simpler than the one that's being sold.
by Browser
Wed Jul 09, 2014 10:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Want international exposure? You already have it.
Replies: 65
Views: 6279

Re: Want international exposure? You already have it.

It's not home bias as much as it is eschewing unnecessary risk and expense in investing. When you look at the data for the last four decades the numbers just don't add up for investing in an EAFE fund for U.S. investors. The diversification story seems to make sense, but it concerns me that the numb...
by Browser
Wed Jul 09, 2014 9:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Want international exposure? You already have it.
Replies: 65
Views: 6279

Re: What if your private residence doesn't meet fire code?

I'm guessing but perhaps the wall needed to be removed because enclosing the porch created an interior room without an appropriate second means of egress. The important point about fire codes is that they are by and large written by competent people who want to stop other people from dieing. People...
by Browser
Mon Jul 07, 2014 8:20 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What if your private residence doesn't meet fire code?
Replies: 5
Views: 486

Re: What if your private residence doesn't meet fire code?

In response to requests for more detail, the party that lived in the adjoining half-duplex residence added an enclosed porch on the back that replaced an open deck. Apparently this would have been a code violation because one of the two back bedrooms would then have not had direct egress to the outs...
by Browser
Mon Jul 07, 2014 8:19 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What if your private residence doesn't meet fire code?
Replies: 5
Views: 486

What if your private residence doesn't meet fire code?

Neighbor in adjoining half-duplex home is re-installing a wall that was removed by the previous owner in order to meet local fire code when he added an enclosed porch. I'm not sure why he had to remove the wall to meet code in the first place -- perhaps the contractor who added the porch had to repo...
by Browser
Mon Jul 07, 2014 5:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What if your private residence doesn't meet fire code?
Replies: 5
Views: 486

Re: Want international exposure? You already have it.

I've never understood on what scale you measure "diversification". Is it a linear scale that is a function of the raw number of economic entities I own a piece of? How many large multinational auto companies, pharmaceutical companies, banks, and so forth do I need to own to be "divers...
by Browser
Mon Jul 07, 2014 5:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Want international exposure? You already have it.
Replies: 65
Views: 6279

Re: Want international exposure? You already have it.

To Nisi's point about international helping (not) in 2008-09 vs. international helping a Japanese investor when the Nikkei bubble popped, how much would international have helped a U.S. investor in 1929 - 1940 or so? You just don't know where those chips will fall; but I expect that if the U.S. play...
by Browser
Mon Jul 07, 2014 8:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Want international exposure? You already have it.
Replies: 65
Views: 6279

Re: Want international exposure? You already have it.

It's of some interest to me that over the last nearly half-century, your "international exposure" (in terms of EAFE) would have been a large black hole except for the currency exchange rate. Is that what you thought? Me neither. Over the 1970-2013 period, EAFE in local currency terms retur...
by Browser
Sun Jul 06, 2014 9:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Want international exposure? You already have it.
Replies: 65
Views: 6279

SIPC protection of the equity in financial accounts

This seems like a real wake-up call -- at least for me. I knew that the SIPC guarantees protection of the "net equity" in one's financial accounts. I thought the SIPC provided $500,000 of insurance protection of my account value against bankruptcy and fraud. Here's what Vanguard states: Va...
by Browser
Sat Jul 05, 2014 11:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SIPC protection of the equity in financial accounts
Replies: 19
Views: 1195

Want international exposure? You already have it.

There's a reason that returns from U.S. large cap stocks and EAFE are so highly correlated and are probably going to stay that way for the foreseeable future. You may already have enough international exposure without any EAFE allocation, so why bother? “I strongly believe that one can get full inte...
by Browser
Sat Jul 05, 2014 10:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Want international exposure? You already have it.
Replies: 65
Views: 6279

If you wouldn't buy (stocks), then you must sell

I hear a good deal of angst about how far the stock market has come and concern about getting in now. But what about those who are already in? There's a rule that you shouldn't hold more than what you would buy right now if you weren't already in. Would you be comfortable jumping into your present a...
by Browser
Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you wouldn't buy (stocks), then you must sell
Replies: 32
Views: 2994

Re: 2015 Subaru Outback

I don't get people who hate CVTs. On my second (2008 Altima and 2014 OB) and I think they're great. Smoother than equivalent geared transmission. Maybe there were earlier versions that were trouble? I think the problem with the CVT is the higher noise level . I noticed this in the 2014 Forester und...
by Browser
Tue Jul 01, 2014 11:18 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2015 Subaru Outback
Replies: 18
Views: 2082

Transplant hard drive from old to a new laptop?

I'm thinking about a new laptop. Is it possible to simply transplant my hard drive from the old one to the new one to move everything intact? I have Win 7 on the old one and want to keep that OS, and I also have MS Office Student Edition and want to keep that. I'm wondering if MS tags the OS and Off...
by Browser
Tue Jul 01, 2014 9:45 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Transplant hard drive from old to a new laptop?
Replies: 16
Views: 667

2015 Subaru Outback

The new 2015 Outback was released recently and is now on the Subaru website. Wondering if anyone has seen it at a dealership and can share impressions. I liked the new Forester but it's a little raw for me in terms of ride and electronics. Hoping the new Outback is a little more refined.
by Browser
Mon Jun 30, 2014 1:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2015 Subaru Outback
Replies: 18
Views: 2082

Re: What octane gas do you use to fill your car?

Accord EX-L 28.2 Accord EX-L hybrid 31.9k Over the 15 year lifespan of the car, you need to save 250/yr to pay for the hybrid. If you figure you will need one 3.5k battery, you need to save 500 buck/yrs. Unless your buying 2 dollar gas, the hybrid is going to save you money. There are hybrids that ...
by Browser
Mon Jun 30, 2014 12:33 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What octane gas do you use to fill your car?
Replies: 76
Views: 5299

Re: What octane gas do you use to fill your car?

I've said it before, but I find it hilarious when people who buy $40,000 cars fret over having to use premium gas. It's like a $100-$300 difference per year, depending on how much you drive. People playing semantics with language in owners manuals, like they are going to "beat the system"...
by Browser
Mon Jun 30, 2014 10:27 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What octane gas do you use to fill your car?
Replies: 76
Views: 5299
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