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Re: Minimum volatility - simply factor exposure

If low vol is such a bad idea, why is Vanguard in that space?
by Browser
Tue Sep 30, 2014 10:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Minimum volatility - simply factor exposure
Replies: 26
Views: 1400

Re: Cricket wireless experience

I haven't had much luck with WiFi calling apps on my smartphone either, so I finally gave up on it. TMobile also has phones that allow WiFi calling. Don't know how well those work,. but might be worth a look.
by Browser
Mon Sep 29, 2014 2:33 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cricket wireless experience
Replies: 35
Views: 1749

Re: Cricket wireless experience

I've never figured out why you would want Republic Wireless, since you're locked into their phones. I very much favor the GSM MVNOs, since switching services is just a SIM card away. And you can use that phone abroad as well. Same applies to CDMA carriers like Verizon and Sprint. Why lock into a par...
by Browser
Mon Sep 29, 2014 9:59 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cricket wireless experience
Replies: 35
Views: 1749

Re: Minimum volatility - simply factor exposure

Maybe low vol is like your cash-back credit card with rotating categories. :D You get cash back, but you just don't know which categories are paying out each period.
by Browser
Mon Sep 29, 2014 9:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Minimum volatility - simply factor exposure
Replies: 26
Views: 1400

Re: Minimum volatility - simply factor exposure

Naively, I wouldn't expect to be buying a "value" investment with low vol in the first place. If it happened to load on value, that would be a stop at the dessert tray. So, knocking low vol for something it's not advertised to deliver seems pointlesss. If I wanted to own value, I'd own an ...
by Browser
Mon Sep 29, 2014 8:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Minimum volatility - simply factor exposure
Replies: 26
Views: 1400

Re: Minimum volatility - simply factor exposure

So, is simply factor exposure a problem? Seems like maybe a good way to get it.
by Browser
Sun Sep 28, 2014 7:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Minimum volatility - simply factor exposure
Replies: 26
Views: 1400

Re: Cliff Notes (new post from Asness) IMO very well worth r

Browser Nothing magical. Suggest you read the book Reducing the Risk of Black Swans and keep my your nightstand so you can refer to it when you forget why you should believe a tilted portfolio is likely to be more efficient (:-)) But basically diversification works here, adding more diversifiaction...
by Browser
Fri Sep 26, 2014 6:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Notes (new post from Asness) IMO very well worth readi
Replies: 20
Views: 2394

Re: Cliff Notes (new post from Asness) IMO very well worth r

Yes the "Larry Portfolio" has much higher than market Sharpe Ratio as about same returns with much lower SD. That's certainly the case with historical data. But remind me why we should expect 30% in SCV to do better than 50% in TSM when combined with bonds (same return, lower SD). This se...
by Browser
Fri Sep 26, 2014 11:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Notes (new post from Asness) IMO very well worth readi
Replies: 20
Views: 2394

Re: Cliff Notes (new post from Asness) IMO very well worth r

countmein wrote:
Bustoff wrote:What would a practical example of this? In other words, how would an individual investor put this into practice?


Permanent Portfolio
Wellesley
Larry Portfolio

Really? Care to elaborate?
by Browser
Thu Sep 25, 2014 11:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Notes (new post from Asness) IMO very well worth readi
Replies: 20
Views: 2394

Re: [S&P is down 1.3% !!!]

If there is anything you wouldn't lust to buy today in order to rebalance, then you should immediately SELL it. e.g. Time to get rid of that tilty factor stuff?
by Browser
Thu Sep 25, 2014 5:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [S&P is down 1.3%, thus] We're all going to die!!!
Replies: 58
Views: 4717

Re: John Hussman, smart guy, should you listen to his foreca

technovelist wrote:I'm smart too, so should everyone listen to me? :confused

Yes. What do you advise? (insert graphic of an ear here)
by Browser
Thu Sep 25, 2014 12:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Hussman, smart guy, should you listen to his forecasts
Replies: 74
Views: 7284

Re: Cliff Notes (new post from Asness) IMO very well worth r

Here's the problem: With risk parity we take the risk we need by making the “best” portfolio risky enough with leverage. The traditional approach takes the risk it needs by departing from this “best” portfolio and instead concentrating the portfolio into risky assets. How do you go about determining...
by Browser
Thu Sep 25, 2014 11:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Notes (new post from Asness) IMO very well worth readi
Replies: 20
Views: 2394

Re: Factor exposure and (Markowitz) diversification

You could cover a lot of bases with the authors' comments; for example: First, naïve low volatility small cap value strategies tend to have very high turnover and low liquidity, which can erode returns significantly. They also have very concentrated country/industry allocations, which neither provid...
by Browser
Thu Sep 25, 2014 10:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor exposure and (Markowitz) diversification
Replies: 8
Views: 626

Re: Factor exposure and (Markowitz) diversification

Take a look at Low Vol with SCV. Both USMV and SPLV have MOM of around 0.30 - 0.50 and both actually load positive on Value as well (particularly SPLV), instead of negative ( as does MTUM). If you combine 50/50 with PXSV or RZV you have about the same return/SD and Sharpe as TSM. However, data are l...
by Browser
Thu Sep 25, 2014 9:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor exposure and (Markowitz) diversification
Replies: 8
Views: 626

Re: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?

In many of those situations I think you will find that gold did save the investor. It is largely insurance against black swans, and those show up a lot more frequently than expected. Can you provide some specific examples in which gold "saved" the investor? When and what were the specific...
by Browser
Wed Sep 24, 2014 7:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?
Replies: 51
Views: 2605

Re: Acura RDX - test drove it again and it's about off my li

My 2011 S60 has voice recognition NAV. It works well. The voice recognition on the $180 Garmin I bought last month is even better. One thing I prefer with Garmin over the Volvo GPS is the visual appearance of the map. The Garmin is more "cartoon-y". exaggerated view with thick lines for r...
by Browser
Wed Sep 24, 2014 3:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Acura RDX - test drove it again and it's about off my list
Replies: 58
Views: 5238

Re: Acura RDX - test drove it again and it's about off my li

Re NAV: I've long been a proponent of standalone NAV devices, and have owned a number of Garmin and TomTom devices with traffic feeds. By comparison, the built-in NAVs (two Range Rover and one Volvo) were not as good, although the latest Volvo one is not too bad (just FYI, I never selected the buil...
by Browser
Wed Sep 24, 2014 3:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Acura RDX - test drove it again and it's about off my list
Replies: 58
Views: 5238

Re: Time for another Death Cross Discussion

December 5, 2012, 10:58 AM ET Apple Shares Tumble; ‘Death Cross’ Looms shares are having another ugly day, and chartists see more gloom ahead. But on the technical side, chart watchers are pointing to a looming “death cross” as evidence that more troubling times could be on the horizon. Charts regi...
by Browser
Wed Sep 24, 2014 1:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time for another Death Cross Discussion
Replies: 3
Views: 708

Re: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too

you already own ST TIPS as the collateral in PCRIX, so why switch? Because ST TIPS does not own CCFs. Yeah, I guess you're right. But the good news is that PCRIX has matched the returns of short-term TIPS over the last 5 years! (if you don't mind rollercoasters) :thumbsup http://stockcharts.com/fre...
by Browser
Wed Sep 24, 2014 12:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too
Replies: 56
Views: 4008

Re: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too

So, it seems we have some Bogleheads arguing for gold? I would have expected a few attaboys for finally seeing the light. :wink: I'm with you :happy. I don't have gold, but I'm selling my CCF fund (PCRIX). It's been down a long time. Not surprising in the current environment. But the recent informa...
by Browser
Wed Sep 24, 2014 12:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too
Replies: 56
Views: 4008

Re: Cricket wireless experience

I recently switched my T-mobile line to Cricket (since Cricket is offering $100 for T-mobile customers to switch). It was a smooth easy transition. Cricket has LTE data but it is capped at 8 MB/s and its HSPA data is capped at 4 MB/s. I was a bit leery of the speed caps. But upon testing, I would s...
by Browser
Wed Sep 24, 2014 12:23 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cricket wireless experience
Replies: 35
Views: 1749

Re: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too

Yes, I did all right owning gold since I got that idea back in 2002. Also did alright with PCRIX for 2-3 years since I got that idea right about when that fund first opened. But like all speculative investments, they work until the Bozos take notice and start skating where the puck was. The typical ...
by Browser
Wed Sep 24, 2014 11:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too
Replies: 56
Views: 4008

Re: Acura RDX - test drove it again and it's about off my li

I cannot speak about Acura directly. My friend, who is native born, bought a 2013 Honda hybrid w/ the nav package. The beast would not understand what street or location he was talking about some of the time. He found it frustrating. His old Acura TL (2000?) which he traded in did not fare much bet...
by Browser
Tue Sep 23, 2014 9:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Acura RDX - test drove it again and it's about off my list
Replies: 58
Views: 5238

Re: Acura RDX - test drove it again and it's about off my li

Well, if it makes you feel better about the Acura GPS, the 2012 Lexus RX GPS is a joke with a clumpsy joystick. I would prefer a smartphone or Garmin 5". What exactly are the barriers to having a Nav system installed in your car that uses Google Maps? Why isn't Google doing these deals? Just a...
by Browser
Tue Sep 23, 2014 7:20 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Acura RDX - test drove it again and it's about off my list
Replies: 58
Views: 5238

Re: Cricket wireless experience

Comparison of AT&T MVNOs: http://tinyurl.com/ATTMVNOSLTE Good spreadsheet, except it only includes MVNOs that offer LTE. There are several other AT&T MVNOs that are just as good or better but only offer HSPA+, which for most people is just as good as LTE. I'd include AirVoice Wireless and H...
by Browser
Tue Sep 23, 2014 5:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cricket wireless experience
Replies: 35
Views: 1749

Re: Risk and the Trinity Study

It's the withdrawal rate that is crucial rather than percentage of equity according to Otar. And he does not believe time mitigates equity risk. The concept of “long–term” exists only in accumulation portfolios. There is no such thing as “long term” in a distribution portfolio. As soon as your peri...
by Browser
Tue Sep 23, 2014 4:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk and the Trinity Study
Replies: 33
Views: 1757

Re: Cricket wireless experience

Be advised that Cricket doesn't offer the same coverage as regular AT&T. You are on the AT&T prepaid network, not the postpaid network, which excludes partner roaming. Same as GoPhone. That may or may not be a big deal to you, but there are some locales where you can't get reception without ...
by Browser
Tue Sep 23, 2014 2:48 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cricket wireless experience
Replies: 35
Views: 1749

Re: Acura RDX - test drove it again and it's about off my li

you can also get the "sport seats" for $500. Leather. (sport seats might be worth it.) Even for the T5 Drive-E FWD Best thing, just go to the dealer and tell them what you want. The factory will probably build it for you. The Premier build has a lot of worthwhile features. More money, but...
by Browser
Tue Sep 23, 2014 2:36 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Acura RDX - test drove it again and it's about off my list
Replies: 58
Views: 5238

Re: Acura RDX - test drove it again and it's about off my li

You should be able to get leather seats. I just went through customizing an XC60 on the Volvo website and I could select them, even as an option for the T5 AWD (not the Premier). I find the current version of their website confusing and annoying but it gets the job done. I'd rather have the adaptiv...
by Browser
Tue Sep 23, 2014 2:21 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Acura RDX - test drove it again and it's about off my list
Replies: 58
Views: 5238

Re: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?

Here's a more detailed research paper by the authors. The matter of whether stock prices are a random walk, with no serial correlation, is critical to the debate. Norstad's paper, so often quoted, is based on temporally random price movements in stock prices. Pfau, et. al. are arguing that stock pri...
by Browser
Tue Sep 23, 2014 9:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?
Replies: 51
Views: 2605

Re: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?

Agree with the poster who pointed out that nobody seems to have read the article but preferred to give their Pavlovian responses to the issue instead. All the authors are saying is that there tends to be a lagged negative autocorrelation of stock prices, which means that they aren't completely rando...
by Browser
Tue Sep 23, 2014 9:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?
Replies: 51
Views: 2605

Re: Acura RDX - test drove it again and it's about off my li

Surely you are considering the AWD? I don't think that is offered with the "Drive-E"...that engine start/stop 'feature' Even on dry pavement the AWD is a worthwhile feature, IMO. I think you can get the 4 cyl with AWD and that would be a bargain relative to the 6 cyl. I recommend against ...
by Browser
Tue Sep 23, 2014 8:56 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Acura RDX - test drove it again and it's about off my list
Replies: 58
Views: 5238

Re: Acura RDX - test drove it again and it's about off my li

You've got me convinced to give the Volvo a serious tryout. Not sure about the FWD though. Most of my driving is on dry pavement, so I'm not sure it's worth the small extra margin of safety in terms of the higher purchase cost, lower gas mileage, and potentially higher maintenance costs. That said, ...
by Browser
Mon Sep 22, 2014 9:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Acura RDX - test drove it again and it's about off my list
Replies: 58
Views: 5238

Re: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too

Am waiting to buy a small portion of GLD myself, hopefully on a price dip :) No more than (and probably less than) 5% of my portfolio. I'm not looking at the price movement of gold over any period of time as a rationale, but as a crisis 'if the s*** hits the fan' portfolio insurance. What do you fi...
by Browser
Mon Sep 22, 2014 9:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too
Replies: 56
Views: 4008

Re: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too

So, it seems we have some Bogleheads arguing for gold? I would have expected a few attaboys for finally seeing the light. :wink:
by Browser
Mon Sep 22, 2014 9:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too
Replies: 56
Views: 4008

Re: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too

Do as you wish, but anytime when folks make moves to decrease the amount of asset x when asset x is not doing well makes me wonder if there is some rationalization and/ or intellectualizing going on. These are two very strong defense mechanisms I see folks employ when justifying changing the IPS wh...
by Browser
Mon Sep 22, 2014 6:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too
Replies: 56
Views: 4008

Re: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too

In 1973 and 1974 a 50/50 portfolio lost 7% and 11% respectively, and in 2008 it lost 12%. These are tolerable losses to me during the most severe stock drawdown periods in the last 42 years. You amigos may arrive at a different conclusion and drop by your broker to purchase the gold shares I just s...
by Browser
Mon Sep 22, 2014 6:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too
Replies: 56
Views: 4008

Re: Acura RDX - test drove it again and it's about off my li

I agree. Browser - read between the lines. Your post says everything but the words "buy the Volvo." There's absolutely nothing wrong with either choice, but you want to come back to the Volvo for a 2nd try. At this point, you may be comparing what seems normal to you from a 2002 CRV persp...
by Browser
Mon Sep 22, 2014 5:31 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Acura RDX - test drove it again and it's about off my list
Replies: 58
Views: 5238

Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too

After holding gold in my portfolio for the last 12 years, I decided to sell today and never look back. I'd do the same if I'd owned commodity CCFs too. The main reason that I owned gold was as a "portfolio diversifier." I was pretty sold on the idea that gold (and commodities) tend to zig ...
by Browser
Mon Sep 22, 2014 5:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too
Replies: 56
Views: 4008

Re: Acura RDX - test drove it again and it's about off my li

Been following your threads. Have you totally tossed out the Volvo? I have a 2011 S60, the sedan version of the XC60. I love the S60 and have thought of getting an XC60 to replace the 2011 CRV we bought CPO 2 years ago. The CRV is woefully underpowered...actually, at 180 HP it has sufficient power ...
by Browser
Mon Sep 22, 2014 4:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Acura RDX - test drove it again and it's about off my list
Replies: 58
Views: 5238

Re: Acura RDX - test drove it again and it's about off my li

The RX is my 3rd CUV/SUV, the 1st being the 2000 X5 3.0; sold it after 4 years of tiresome and expensive repairs, though mostly under warranty. My ego was much bigger too when I was younger. The rear passenger felt the "trucky" ride also, but not for the driver and passenger. My 2013 CX-5...
by Browser
Mon Sep 22, 2014 3:44 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Acura RDX - test drove it again and it's about off my list
Replies: 58
Views: 5238

Re: Location of stocks in retirement: Roth vs. TIRA?

A mix is best with weighting as to your best guess of what the future holds. I have discussed this in several threads. Here is one of them: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=2129672#p2129672 Thanks. That's just the sort of discussion I was looking for. You have considered the same tra...
by Browser
Mon Sep 22, 2014 11:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Location of stocks in retirement: Roth vs. TIRA?
Replies: 3
Views: 294

Location of stocks in retirement: Roth vs. TIRA?

Would it be better to hold one's equity allocation in retirement in a Roth IRA or a Traditional IRA? As I see it, the advantage of the Roth is that capital gains will not be taxed at withdrawal as in a TIRA. However, an advantage of the TIRA is that capital losses could be offset to some extent beca...
by Browser
Mon Sep 22, 2014 10:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Location of stocks in retirement: Roth vs. TIRA?
Replies: 3
Views: 294

Re: Acura RDX - test drove it again and it's about off my li

"Trucky" ride - yes that's an apt description of my experience with the RDX. I'm surprised to hear that applied to the BMW, but I've never driven one. Interesting to know about the engine start/stop feature. I also just drove the Volvo XC60 with that feature and really hated it. The car lu...
by Browser
Sun Sep 21, 2014 6:39 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Acura RDX - test drove it again and it's about off my list
Replies: 58
Views: 5238

Re: Another take on "rising equity glidepath" in retirement

Jim Otar conducted an analysis of the returns of retirement portfolios over 30-year periods based on Monte Carlo simulations using market data from 1900-2010. He examined the effect of return sequence, inflation, asset allocation, costs, and rebalancing across various withdrawals rates. His results ...
by Browser
Sun Sep 21, 2014 3:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another take on "rising equity glidepath" in retirement
Replies: 14
Views: 1453

Re: Problem using Google Voice with Consumer Cellular

bump... can GV still not forward calls to your Consumer Cellular number Browser? Thanks, Anakin Google Voice is one strange beast. In GV, you set up your forwarding phone numbers - those are the numbers that will ring when the GV number is called. There is a checkbox by each forwarding number to le...
by Browser
Sun Sep 21, 2014 2:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Problem using Google Voice with Consumer Cellular
Replies: 9
Views: 759

Re: Another take on "rising equity glidepath" in retirement

On maintaining a constant value of equities, does that entail rebalancing in bad markets by selling bonds to buy more stocks, or just never spending more from the equity bucket than the growth and income that it produces? What about inflation on that set dollar amount of stocks? As usual, if you ha...
by Browser
Sun Sep 21, 2014 12:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another take on "rising equity glidepath" in retirement
Replies: 14
Views: 1453

Re: Another take on "rising equity glidepath" in retirement

Here's the problem with the rising glidepath approach IMO--it ignores a very important factor, human behavior. How many people do you know that are well into retirement that could tolerate a huge bear market and watch a large percent of their portfolio disappear, knowing they have no chance to earn...
by Browser
Sun Sep 21, 2014 11:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another take on "rising equity glidepath" in retirement
Replies: 14
Views: 1453

Re: Another take on "rising equity glidepath" in retirement

As I understand the arguments of Ayres & Nalebuff and Bernstein, they are essentially saying that the terminal return of a lump sum invested and left alone will not be affected in the least by the sequence of annual returns. The only reason that sequence is "risky" for a retirement por...
by Browser
Sun Sep 21, 2014 1:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another take on "rising equity glidepath" in retirement
Replies: 14
Views: 1453

Another take on "rising equity glidepath" in retirement

Recently, Pfau & Kitces discovered that a "rising equity glidepath" in a retirement portfolio being drawn down appears to be make the portfolio less vulnerable to premature failure due to "sequence risk"; i.e, the bad luck of having your equity allocation take a big hit durin...
by Browser
Sat Sep 20, 2014 9:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another take on "rising equity glidepath" in retirement
Replies: 14
Views: 1453
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