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Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

I recommend reading Dr. Sharpe's comments regarding "statistical significance" of backtested data. He illustrates by describing an experiment in which he instructs his students to generate a series of 1000 random 50-year annual runs of returns from a known distribution of stock returns set...
by Browser
Fri Nov 21, 2014 9:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 37
Views: 3257

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

Here's a question for Larry. If an investor adds QSPIX (or anything for that matter), how does he go about determining if it was beneficial or not? I suppose that after a year or so, we could compare returns and volatility to what it would have been with the original portfolio; e.g., if I replaced 5...
by Browser
Thu Nov 20, 2014 4:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 66
Views: 3681

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

Not to mention the startling research findings regarding the deleterious effects of consuming pickles. Obviously this is a bigger problem than jelly beans: 1. Nearly all sick people have eaten pickles. The effects are obviously cumulative. 2. 99.9% of all people who die from cancer have eaten pickle...
by Browser
Thu Nov 20, 2014 3:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 37
Views: 3257

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

Add the problem that it is only the studies that find positive results that get published. The other 100 that didn't never get submitted for review.
by Browser
Thu Nov 20, 2014 2:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 37
Views: 3257

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

Browser That's a very personal question with no one right answer. I would say this, with a higher equity allocation I would suggest taking from the equity side. With a very low one already and given current real bond yields, I think it's fine to take a small allocation from the bond side. And of co...
by Browser
Thu Nov 20, 2014 11:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 66
Views: 3681

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

Nisiprius It was for me anyway until the fund became available and it was way for me to diversify the sources of returns in the portfolio which IMO is a very good idea in general. In my case I used it lowering my bond allocation a bit, given the extremely low expected real returns---but not wanting...
by Browser
Thu Nov 20, 2014 11:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 66
Views: 3681

Re: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt

The only solution is for Taylor to challenge Merriman to a dual at sunrise, somewhere near the OK Corral. :annoyed
by Browser
Thu Nov 20, 2014 9:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt
Replies: 72
Views: 5812

Re: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt

Why anybody thinks that owning a piece of virtually every stock in the investment universe eludes me. This is not a strategy -- it is the total absence of a strategy. Forgive me JB.
by Browser
Wed Nov 19, 2014 8:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt
Replies: 72
Views: 5812

Re: Glidepath (target date) investments distort asset alloca

Glidepath (target date investing) is a triumph of marketing over substance. What are the purported benefits of this strategy and do any data exist in the universe to document those benefits? Never have so many people invested so much money in a strategy concept with no demonstrable value. Please dir...
by Browser
Wed Nov 19, 2014 8:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Glidepath (target date) investments distort asset allocation
Replies: 20
Views: 2580

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

I just now successfully placed an order for $2500 of QSPIX in a taxable account at Fidelity. There was a warning about the 49.95 fee and other that required I read and sign a special notice indicating that I am a sophisticated investor, understand the risks, etc. Thanks. Good to know the minimum is...
by Browser
Wed Nov 19, 2014 1:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 66
Views: 3681

Re: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt

I don't read it as just a pitch for DFA, as much as an argument for slice and dice. He makes some good points about that I think. If you want to do that, maybe Vanguard isn't the best place to look for advice.
by Browser
Wed Nov 19, 2014 1:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt
Replies: 72
Views: 5812

Re: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt

He doesn't much like target date funds either, which I heartily agree with. For example, he points out that the 2060 TDF has 10% bonds, which he thinks is useless. It won't provide much protection in a bear market, but it will reduce the long term returns for young investors. Correct and correct.
by Browser
Wed Nov 19, 2014 12:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt
Replies: 72
Views: 5812

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

Following the rule to not invest in anything you don't understand would exclude this investment for virtually all of us. The behavioral risk you are taking on is your response if (when) this thing blows up. If a good old stock index fund blows up, at least you understand that and should have known t...
by Browser
Wed Nov 19, 2014 11:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 66
Views: 3681

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

I was wondering what I'd do with that $100K I had lying around. :wink:
by Browser
Wed Nov 19, 2014 10:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 66
Views: 3681

Re: Got a new chip & signature cc from USbank: what's the di

If you use a merchant that has a chip reader you will likely be required to use it and not be able swipe it. Doesn't really offer any increased security does it? What's the difference whether I swipe it or use a chip reader? This seems like a nothing-burger to me. - Communication between the chip a...
by Browser
Wed Nov 19, 2014 12:01 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Got a new chip & signature cc from USbank: what's the diff?
Replies: 11
Views: 1042

Re: Ray Dalio's All-Weather Portfolio

Hi, Thought I’d share this with you guys as I look forward to Tony Robbin’s new financial book and interview with Bogle. Just read the below article and was surprised to see Dalio recommend 65% Fixed Income allocation in his All Weather Portfolio and the article claims an annual net 10% return over...
by Browser
Tue Nov 18, 2014 6:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ray Dalio's All-Weather Portfolio
Replies: 14
Views: 2068

Re: Got a new chip & signature cc from USbank: what's the di

placeholder wrote:If you use a merchant that has a chip reader you will likely be required to use it and not be able swipe it.

Doesn't really offer any increased security does it? What's the difference whether I swipe it or use a chip reader? This seems like a nothing-burger to me.
by Browser
Tue Nov 18, 2014 2:37 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Got a new chip & signature cc from USbank: what's the diff?
Replies: 11
Views: 1042

Got a new chip & signature cc from USbank: what's the diff?

Just had my visa card from USBank replaced with one that has a chip, and also a magnetic strip. Nothing has changed. I still use it with the magnetic strip readers at merchants just like the previous card. Is this just a cosmetic change? What the heck is different about this card -- looks like the t...
by Browser
Tue Nov 18, 2014 2:16 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Got a new chip & signature cc from USbank: what's the diff?
Replies: 11
Views: 1042

Re: Jack Bogle: expect 7% annualized for the foreseeable fut

Since nobody can predict where the yields on cash (T-bills) are going from here, and since the historical range of the 20-year average of real T-bill yields has bounced around between -1% and 2%, there's quite a range of possibilities for stock returns going forward. To put it in perspective, if equ...
by Browser
Tue Nov 18, 2014 12:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle: expect 7% annualized for the foreseeable future
Replies: 42
Views: 5903

Re: Consider freezing your credit

I'm concerned about fraud ramping up during the Holiday season, and the frequent credit card breaches that have been occuring to me, so finally motivated to take this step. As has been pointed out freezing credit does nothing about security breaches or protect existing cards or accounts in any fash...
by Browser
Tue Nov 18, 2014 11:50 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Consider freezing your credit
Replies: 45
Views: 3529

Re: Jack Bogle: expect 7% annualized for the foreseeable fut

Let's check back in 10 years. Pays to remember that "nobody knows nothing." Jack's predictions aren't worth any more than anybody else's and nobody is ever right predicting stock market returns. More investment porn...
by Browser
Tue Nov 18, 2014 10:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle: expect 7% annualized for the foreseeable future
Replies: 42
Views: 5903

Re: Consider freezing your credit

My state is Arizona - $5 each to activate the credit freeze. No big woop to do that at all, so why mess around with a "fraud alert." I'd rather prevent the fraud rather than be alerted after-the-fact.
by Browser
Tue Nov 18, 2014 10:54 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Consider freezing your credit
Replies: 45
Views: 3529

Re: Consider freezing your credit

Just put a freeze on the three credit reporting agencies online. Took 30-45 minutes and not difficult to do. I'm concerned about fraud ramping up during the Holiday season, and the frequent credit card breaches that have been occuring to me, so finally motivated to take this step. Feeling better alr...
by Browser
Tue Nov 18, 2014 10:36 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Consider freezing your credit
Replies: 45
Views: 3529

Re: Additional Betas: Defining and implementing

I like this quote: Indeed, our current view around here is that there’s no magic in Smart Beta or equal-weighted indices. You’re simply taking on more risk for hopefully more reward, and in most cases you’ll also face a headwind of higher costs for doing so http://monevator.com/video-market-cap-trac...
by Browser
Tue Nov 18, 2014 9:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Additional Betas: Defining and implementing
Replies: 6
Views: 603

Re: IRA Beneficiary Designation

[OT comments removed by admin LadyGeek]
by Browser
Mon Nov 17, 2014 11:35 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IRA Beneficiary Designation
Replies: 3
Views: 566

Re: Glidepath (target date) investments distort asset alloca

The "equity-like/bond-like" human capital stuff is, in my opinion, a garbage concept that muddies thought instead of clarifying it. OK, then. I guess I'll just disregard what Bill Bernstein, Paul Samuelson, and Robert Merton have to say on the subject since I now know it's garbage. Thanks...
by Browser
Sun Nov 16, 2014 12:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Glidepath (target date) investments distort asset allocation
Replies: 20
Views: 2580

Re: Can active funds reliably beat the index? Actually, Yes

The "best skills" that active fund mangers apply are their best skills at keeping their jobs and making more money in salary and bonuses for themselves. As Swensen argues, their interests are not aligned with investor interests, and that creates a real problem for investors. Why is it that...
by Browser
Sun Nov 16, 2014 11:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can active funds reliably beat the index? Actually, Yes.
Replies: 37
Views: 4594

Re: Glidepath (target date) investments distort asset alloca

What I found interesting is the author's take on "human capital." The advice often given is that human capital needs to be taken into consideration along with financial capital, the two comprising one's "total wealth." Young investors have a lot of human capital (potential future...
by Browser
Sun Nov 16, 2014 11:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Glidepath (target date) investments distort asset allocation
Replies: 20
Views: 2580

Glidepath (target date) investments distort asset allocation

Article discussing target date funds (TDFs) argues that they distort asset allocation by overallocating to stocks at the beginning and underallocating nearer to retirement. TDFs impose a glide path that already exists naturally, thereby promoting portfolios that harm the young and ill-serve the old ...
by Browser
Sat Nov 15, 2014 6:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Glidepath (target date) investments distort asset allocation
Replies: 20
Views: 2580

Re: a look at gold and its hedging value

One characteristic of most "risk parity", or all-weather, type portfolios - be it Ray Dalio or Larry Swedroe - is a rather high bond or even leveraged bond allocation. That makes them rather sensitive to interest rate/inflation risk. The argument for the PP is that gold can offset the infl...
by Browser
Sat Nov 15, 2014 11:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a look at gold and its hedging value
Replies: 48
Views: 3150

Re: a look at gold and its hedging value

The idea of hedges in a portfolio to reduce volatility have always interested me. I have toyed mentally with the idea of owning things like gold, precious metals funds, and commodities to hedge my portfolio against certain risks. I view this as portfolio insurance and so far have elected to ride ou...
by Browser
Sat Nov 15, 2014 11:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a look at gold and its hedging value
Replies: 48
Views: 3150

Can active funds reliably beat the index? Actually, Yes.

How can you screen for superior actively managed funds? The questions: • Does the fund have expenses lower than 75 percent of other funds? • Do the funds managers have significant ownership of fund shares? They screened a total universe of 2,466 domestic equity funds. In it, they found 509 funds wi...
by Browser
Fri Nov 14, 2014 10:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can active funds reliably beat the index? Actually, Yes.
Replies: 37
Views: 4594

Re: a look at gold and its hedging value

Here's what I meant The price of gold would not have been say $35 in 1971 if it was freely convertible for the prior 40 years or so. It would have been much higher. How much higher I don't know. And that's the problem. You are looking at an artificially low price as the starting point. Clearly gold...
by Browser
Fri Nov 14, 2014 5:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a look at gold and its hedging value
Replies: 48
Views: 3150

Re: Reliable mid size car

You don't say, but imply, that your Accord has been unreliable - assuming "thrilled" refers to reliability and not driving experience. Exactly what experiences have left you so dissatisfied with your (2012? 2013?) Accord that you're ready to send it to the crusher after two years? A knock...
by Browser
Fri Nov 14, 2014 11:40 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Reliable mid size car
Replies: 23
Views: 2471

Re: a look at gold and its hedging value

FWIW IMO using the 70s is not useful because gold was held at same price for basically 40 years, so you had a one time jump that should have occurred over the 40 years. Larry I don't understand your reasoning. During the 1970s there was an unexpected inflation shock , while at the same time gold bu...
by Browser
Fri Nov 14, 2014 9:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a look at gold and its hedging value
Replies: 48
Views: 3150

Re: Chip and Pin: busted by hackers before it's even here

The ABC News piece appeared to be a different hack, in which all the info is lifted from the chip. No mention that it involved the contactless chip in any way.
by Browser
Fri Nov 14, 2014 9:47 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chip and Pin: busted by hackers before it's even here
Replies: 17
Views: 1453

Re: a look at gold and its hedging value

Larry - one period that is often mentioned is the 1970s when there was high inflation and gold soared in price. Did the authors include this period in their research, and what did they have to say about the apparent link between rising high inflation and gold during that time?
by Browser
Fri Nov 14, 2014 9:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a look at gold and its hedging value
Replies: 48
Views: 3150

Re: Chip and Pin: busted by hackers before it's even here

“With just a mobile phone we created a POS terminal that could read a card through a wallet,” Martin Emms, lead researcher of the project that uncovered the flaw, noted in a statement about the findings. “All the checks are carried out on the card rather than the terminal so at the point of transac...
by Browser
Fri Nov 14, 2014 9:17 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chip and Pin: busted by hackers before it's even here
Replies: 17
Views: 1453

Chip and Pin: busted by hackers before it's even here

Just saw a piece on ABC News about how easy it is for hackers to steal the supposedly "secure" information from the chip on the new smart chip credit cards. Seems all they have to do is get close enough to your card to use a digital reader to lift all the info on it, including your credit ...
by Browser
Thu Nov 13, 2014 6:52 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chip and Pin: busted by hackers before it's even here
Replies: 17
Views: 1453

Re: Blog: Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio

I am obviously the odd bird here, but I think that the biggest benefit of PP is the fact that you can use margin debt to leverage your portfolio with significantly less risk compared to leveraging an all-stock, or even a 25/75 portfolio. I don't use PP, but if I did, I am pretty sure I could sleep ...
by Browser
Thu Nov 13, 2014 5:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blog: Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 79
Views: 7976

Re: Auto body repair: "recycled" vs. OEM rear door replaceme

I think the $1,000 more is not just for the new door but for the assurance that the work would be done to high quality by this shop. I was rear-ended several years ago and this shop repaired it to like-new condition and I've never had any issues with it. Excellent bodywork and paint.
by Browser
Thu Nov 13, 2014 8:32 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Auto body repair: "recycled" vs. OEM rear door replacement?
Replies: 11
Views: 400

Re: Auto body repair: "recycled" vs. OEM rear door replaceme

I would go with the 'used' door. You say recycled. I say used. There the same. Remember, recycled (or used) is OEM . But only if it was in equal or better condition than the original door . Note : I drive a 2002 vehicle myself and it's showing its age. To me a vehicle is only for transportation. Al...
by Browser
Thu Nov 13, 2014 8:23 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Auto body repair: "recycled" vs. OEM rear door replacement?
Replies: 11
Views: 400

Re: Consider freezing your credit

In the last 3 months, I've had one of my credit cards reissued twice for data breaches - one for Home Depot and another for K-Mart, and now a second card is being reissued for the same. This is becoming a regular event. The threat level just seems to be ramping to incredible proportions. For this re...
by Browser
Thu Nov 13, 2014 8:01 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Consider freezing your credit
Replies: 45
Views: 3529

Auto body repair: "recycled" vs. OEM rear door replacement?

My 2002 CRV was sideswiped and rear door bashed in by hit and run. I have State Farm insurance with $1000 deductible. I have two repair estimates. The first is for $2700 from a shop I've used before and their work is high quality; it includes a new OEM rear door replacement which State Farm will pay...
by Browser
Thu Nov 13, 2014 7:55 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Auto body repair: "recycled" vs. OEM rear door replacement?
Replies: 11
Views: 400

Re: New car purchase- "documentation fee" and "registration

The location of each dealership determines the total tax, which is usually comprised of the state tax + county tax + local/city tax. I'm sure this is dependent on geography, but in our area vehicle taxes are handled at registration time. For example, NH doesn't have a sales tax but Mass and Maine d...
by Browser
Wed Nov 12, 2014 8:40 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New car purchase- "documentation fee" and "registration fee"
Replies: 28
Views: 2478

Re: Gold As A Currency Hedge

There's no doubt that there is an inverse relationship between gold and the USD. The correlation between gold and UUP (a dollar futures ETF) runs about -.40. So, I guess you could think of gold as at least a partial "hedge" against a falling USD. Gold does well (in USD terms) when the doll...
by Browser
Tue Nov 11, 2014 5:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Gold And Silver As A Currency Hedge?
Replies: 125
Views: 8757

Re: Gold As A Currency Hedge

Well, again, yes, it has an expense, and it yields no income. But from a strictly mean-variance point of view, if an asset class with, say, a zero real return has enough volatility, and that volatility has low correlation with the rest of the portfolio, then a small fixed allocation to it both incr...
by Browser
Tue Nov 11, 2014 12:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Gold And Silver As A Currency Hedge?
Replies: 125
Views: 8757

Re: Gold As A Currency Hedge

For all it's touted benefits, gold provides remarkably little protection for a portfolio of stocks, bonds, and real estate over the long run, at least in the U.S. It might help over the short run, so if you're a short run investor and like to gamble you might want to bet that over the next short run...
by Browser
Tue Nov 11, 2014 12:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Gold And Silver As A Currency Hedge?
Replies: 125
Views: 8757

Re: New car purchase- "documentation fee" and "registration

The way it works if you buy a car in Arizona as a non-resident is that (if your home state has a reciprocity agreement with AZ) you pay your home state tax to Arizona, as well as the county and city taxes where you purchased the vehicle. In Phoenix those local taxes amount to about 2.5% - 3.0%. You ...
by Browser
Tue Nov 11, 2014 11:53 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New car purchase- "documentation fee" and "registration fee"
Replies: 28
Views: 2478
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