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Re: telemarketing calls to cell phones

I use a google voice number as my primary number. The native number on the phone is never used. With GV you can block calls. I LOVE blocking those harassing calls!
by Browser
Sat Dec 20, 2014 10:05 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: telemarketing calls to cell phones
Replies: 9
Views: 933

Re: Effect of 0.79 correlation: fantasy vs. reality

Kevin, The question I'm interested in is the question of any alleged diversification benefit arising from alleged "low" correlations. As I noted above, regardless of whether I use the Fama-French data series or the Portfolio Visualizer data, it doesn't matter. The correlations with large ...
by Browser
Fri Dec 19, 2014 4:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Effect of 0.79 correlation: fantasy vs. reality
Replies: 50
Views: 2890

Re: Very uncomfortable phone call w/Vanguard about Beneficia

@ markcoop: Flagship clients are allowed to have customized beneficiary designations at Vanguard. @ imgritz: Inherited IRAs must be distributed with required minimum distributions based on the age of the beneficiary. If the original owner specifies contingent beneficiaries who are young, passing the...
by Browser
Thu Dec 18, 2014 6:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Very uncomfortable phone call w/Vanguard about Beneficiaries
Replies: 37
Views: 6143

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

Bernstein's viewpoint on the importance of "portfolio survival" estimates. And he isn't even considering the probability that someone who is 65 years old might actually make it through the next 3 or 4 decades even if nothing else goes haywire. A lot can happen between here and there: Consi...
by Browser
Thu Dec 18, 2014 6:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 9640

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

InvestorNewb wrote:The market has been on fire the past two days. We're almost back to where we were before the little crash, if you can call it that.

Just goes to show you can't keep a bad market down these days. :P
by Browser
Thu Dec 18, 2014 5:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1064
Views: 187678

Re: Unlocked T-Mobile iPhone 6 okay with Consumer Cellular?

I suspect that unlocked phone would work fine since both providers are GSM. But the SIM configuration details with CC were NOT straightforward, due mainly to inept customer service. I eventually got my Nexus 5 working fine after several hours of googling the problem... Wizard, if possible, can you ...
by Browser
Thu Dec 18, 2014 2:57 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Unlocked T-Mobile iPhone 6 okay with Consumer Cellular?
Replies: 12
Views: 1004

Re: Unlocked T-Mobile iPhone 6 okay with Consumer Cellular?

Appreciate the feedback! The main reason I asked is that CC's phone reps said they couldn't be "100% sure" their SIM would work in my unlocked iPhone 6. Pretty likely. Just not guaranteed. In which case, an $800 paperweight. :-) Bill When I initially went to CC, the rep couldn't even tell...
by Browser
Thu Dec 18, 2014 2:46 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Unlocked T-Mobile iPhone 6 okay with Consumer Cellular?
Replies: 12
Views: 1004

Re: Effect of 0.79 correlation: fantasy vs. reality

And yet, using Simba's data for returns of VFINX and VISVX from 1972-2013 (rebalanced annually), every single combination from 10% to 100% VISVX has higher absolute compounded returns and higher Sharpe ratios than 100% VFINX. The correlation between the two was 0.71. So, I'm not entirely convinced t...
by Browser
Thu Dec 18, 2014 1:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Effect of 0.79 correlation: fantasy vs. reality
Replies: 50
Views: 2890

Re: Very uncomfortable phone call w/Vanguard about Beneficia

Your problem is easily fixed. Get a trust that names the beneficiaries of your estate. Name the trust as the beneficiary on your accounts. You need to understand how trusts work before doing this. They have some limitations when named as beneficiary, such as not being able to "stretch" in...
by Browser
Thu Dec 18, 2014 12:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Very uncomfortable phone call w/Vanguard about Beneficiaries
Replies: 37
Views: 6143

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

cfs wrote:
Browser wrote:What if this guy shows up instead of Santa?

Well, Shipmate Browser, Santa is just warming up . . . the big guy is about to sing.

Ho! Ho! Ho! Just make sure to keep your return receipt in case what he leaves turns out to be a dud later. :wink:
by Browser
Thu Dec 18, 2014 12:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1064
Views: 187678

Re: Very uncomfortable phone call w/Vanguard about Beneficia

Just one more reason to get your accounts combined in a single brokerage account ASAP. It is very serious if your beneficiary designations are not clear to you, and possibly not clear to VG and their Reps as well. Note that VG has historically maintained a number of different beneficiary restrictio...
by Browser
Thu Dec 18, 2014 12:35 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Very uncomfortable phone call w/Vanguard about Beneficiaries
Replies: 37
Views: 6143

Re: Effect of 0.79 correlation: fantasy vs. reality

Quite interesting. The implication of your finding is that tilting didn't do much for the equity allocation in terms of MPT. However, I don't quite understand how we can explain the higher absolute and risk-adjusted historical returns when you use SCV stocks instead of LC or TSM combined with bonds....
by Browser
Thu Dec 18, 2014 12:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Effect of 0.79 correlation: fantasy vs. reality
Replies: 50
Views: 2890

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

BahamaMan wrote:
Beliavsky wrote:If you don't know what asset returns are going to be, what is your alternative to simulation?


Historical Backtesting seems the Best we've got!

Unless you have a working crystal ball from Amazon. I'm getting one for Christmas.
by Browser
Wed Dec 17, 2014 11:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 9640

Re: Volvo vs. Mercedes

Dutch wrote:I believe Volvo is Chinese now.

Yes, they are owned by the largest economy in the world now. They used to be owned by a company in the country that's now in second place.
by Browser
Wed Dec 17, 2014 11:32 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Volvo vs. Mercedes
Replies: 50
Views: 4109

Re: Volvo vs. Mercedes

They do, but they don't have the glitz, I don't believe. The styling, while attractive to me, is pretty low-key. Probably lots of people don't think Volvo is a pricey vehicle, but don't know.
by Browser
Wed Dec 17, 2014 6:03 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Volvo vs. Mercedes
Replies: 50
Views: 4109

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

What if this guy shows up instead of Santa?

Image
by Browser
Wed Dec 17, 2014 5:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1064
Views: 187678

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

CoAndy wrote:The St. Nick rally has begun. S&P 500 up 2.23% today. :sharebeer

[OT comment removed by admin LadyGeek] But for now, the shorts had to cover and we have a little candycane rally. But tomorrow?
by Browser
Wed Dec 17, 2014 4:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1064
Views: 187678

Re: Volvo vs. Mercedes

I haven't read all the comments, but I had a similar debate between the Volvo and Mercedes brands and went with a slightly used Volvo XC60 a couple of years ago. I've loved it and get compliments fairly regularly. One factor for me that swayed me was that Volvo is less common (more unique) and also...
by Browser
Wed Dec 17, 2014 4:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Volvo vs. Mercedes
Replies: 50
Views: 4109

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

This is a fascinating thread. Hopefully we will not let it degenerate to a pet food vs whatever other options there are. Thanks, scone, for telling it as it really is. I'd stop before the aspirin. I am going for quality rather than quantity of life. It is better to die a little early than let my bo...
by Browser
Wed Dec 17, 2014 4:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 9640

Re: Can there be a SCV equity premium without the "value" pa

Based on the link you provided, I draw the exact opposite conclusion. Small cap value, at 20% overvalued, is the least overvalued asset class on that chart. Valuations are all relative. Based solely on those P/B numbers, I would say SCV is in a position to outperform. I take Makiel's comment to mea...
by Browser
Wed Dec 17, 2014 3:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can there be a SCV equity premium without the "value" part?
Replies: 12
Views: 894

Re: Volvo vs. Mercedes

I drive a Subaru, I love my Subaru, I've never heard of a Subaru Odyssey. Looked it up and it's a Honda! I'd probably choose a Volvo over a Mercedes, but I'd choose a Subaru (and save money) over either of those. It's a rename. Subaru thought that Outback sounded too much like "Outhouse" ...
by Browser
Wed Dec 17, 2014 11:17 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Volvo vs. Mercedes
Replies: 50
Views: 4109

Re: Can there be a SCV equity premium without the "value" pa

Comment by Burten Makiel about smart beta strategies caught my attention: Nothing works irrespective of valuation , and I'm not sure that the small-cap risk is one I really want to take now. That prompted me to have a look at P/B valuation levels and find that the current P/B for small cap value st...
by Browser
Wed Dec 17, 2014 11:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can there be a SCV equity premium without the "value" part?
Replies: 12
Views: 894

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

I would rather eat my birthday cake than dog food at 95. Having children also makes me feel easy, knowing that someone from my family can have the money if I do not celebrate my 95th birthday. Are you sure you'll know the difference between cake and dog food when you're 95 -- or that you'll even ca...
by Browser
Wed Dec 17, 2014 11:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 9640

Re: Volvo vs. Mercedes

There's things I honestly like about the GLK350 - it's a handsome vehicle, it still actually has some of the blocky, no-nonsense look of its SUV ancestors, unlike most modern crossovers/CUVs. On the negative side, they're underpowered, overpriced, and pretty dang thirsty. And for the record, I am l...
by Browser
Wed Dec 17, 2014 10:42 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Volvo vs. Mercedes
Replies: 50
Views: 4109

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

At current valuation levels, a prudent strategy would be to adopt a conservative AA and plan to save more to compensate. The immortality of this thread is testament to the anxiety about stocks. Sell some stocks, sleep better.
by Browser
Wed Dec 17, 2014 10:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1064
Views: 187678

Can there be a SCV equity premium without the "value" part?

Comment by Burten Makiel about smart beta strategies caught my attention: Nothing works irrespective of valuation , and I'm not sure that the small-cap risk is one I really want to take now. That prompted me to have a look at P/B valuation levels and find that the current P/B for small cap value sto...
by Browser
Wed Dec 17, 2014 10:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can there be a SCV equity premium without the "value" part?
Replies: 12
Views: 894

Re: Bogle Advises Investing No More Than 20% Outside U.S.

Saw that today and he was pretty clear about the lack of need to invest in foreign equities. 1) he says that investing in U.S. companies, because they are global, gives you plenty of international exposure no matter what anybody says. 2) he says that investing abroad incurs all sorts of additional r...
by Browser
Tue Dec 16, 2014 10:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle Advises Investing No More Than 20% Outside U.S.
Replies: 106
Views: 11396

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

One of the few credible academics who has considered the "calculus of retirement income" and has developed methods of estimating the probability of "financial ruin" factoring in both longevity and expected portfolio performance is Moshe Milevsky. For the life of me, I don't know ...
by Browser
Tue Dec 16, 2014 10:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 9640

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

They all sing and chant as we move nearer to the cliff.... :shock: :shock: :shock:

Don't forget the dreaded Hindenburg Omen that recently appeared...
by Browser
Tue Dec 16, 2014 9:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1064
Views: 187678

Re: Volvo vs. Mercedes

Having studied this carefully, Consumer Reports seems kind of middle-of-the-road on the Volvo. It has average reliability ratings. They like some things such as the interior; they don't like some things such as the ride quality (which I didn't like either on rough roads). So it's kind of gray rather...
by Browser
Tue Dec 16, 2014 3:20 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Volvo vs. Mercedes
Replies: 50
Views: 4109

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

Some wonderful posts in this thread that are quite thought-provoking that I'll read and re-read. Thanks. Back to the Morton's Fork. Some of the benefits of not trying to stretch your nestegg to assure a 100% probability of funding your trip across the River Styx under the worst possible scenario are...
by Browser
Tue Dec 16, 2014 3:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 9640

Re: Volvo vs. Mercedes

sambb wrote:volvo - never again.
look at lexus for reliability

What was the problem with Volvo?
by Browser
Tue Dec 16, 2014 11:36 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Volvo vs. Mercedes
Replies: 50
Views: 4109

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

It seems to me that people are subject to a "lottery effect" when planning for the longevity of their retirement funds. When we buy a lottery ticket, our subjective probability of actually winning is much higher than the mathematical odds. Living until age 95 is a lot like having a "w...
by Browser
Tue Dec 16, 2014 10:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 9640

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

Where did you get that "0.1%" number? The Social Security life table shows that 5,387/84,090 = 6% of all 62-year-olds live to age 95; 11,691/90,352 = 13% of all women. And the new Society of Actuaries RP-2014 data , if I'm doing the math right, says that for a "healthy annuitant"...
by Browser
Mon Dec 15, 2014 7:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 9640

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

Quite honestly, how many of you know folks who have made it to 85 and are humming along just fine - as opposed to the many of your acquaintances, friends and family who didn't make it or have and are on thin ice? My mother is still living at nearly age 98, but all the rest of my family in her genera...
by Browser
Mon Dec 15, 2014 6:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 9640

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

I'm finding that I didn't need as big a pile as I thought when I retired. I'm not spending nearly as much as I had figured on. I think the habits of saving and frugality that I practiced for so long so I could retire have become ingrained and the pleasure quotient from buying stuff just isn't very l...
by Browser
Mon Dec 15, 2014 2:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 9640

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

So to me, the problem is not the odds of dying at any particular age, but the odds of having a long drawn out decline and lingering death. What are the odds of that? Pretty high, I'd say. I think that's what most of us are afraid of, but I don't think there's any way to insure against that financia...
by Browser
Mon Dec 15, 2014 1:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 9640

Re: Volvo vs. Mercedes

The Volvo XC60 is actually an old body design. What was changed in 2015 is mainly the powerplant, as they are going to 4-cyl turbo engines. It still looks pretty good, but wouldn't be surprised to see a redesign relatively soon to match up with the changes under the hood. I've shopped vehicles in th...
by Browser
Mon Dec 15, 2014 1:46 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Volvo vs. Mercedes
Replies: 50
Views: 4109

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

Where did you get that "0.1%" number? The Social Security life table shows that 5,387/84,090 = 6% of all 62-year-olds live to age 95; 11,691/90,352 = 13% of all women. And the new Society of Actuaries RP-2014 data , if I'm doing the math right, says that for a "healthy annuitant"...
by Browser
Mon Dec 15, 2014 1:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 9640

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

I would rather eat my birthday cake than dog food at 95. Having children also makes me feel easy, knowing that someone from my family can have the money if I do not celebrate my 95th birthday. Are you sure you'll know the difference between cake and dog food when you're 95 -- or that you'll even ca...
by Browser
Mon Dec 15, 2014 12:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 9640

Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%

It's common practice these days to use Monte Carlo simulators to calibrate retirement portfolios with, say, a 90% probability of lasting 30 years, or until age 95 for someone who retires at age 65. However, if we view life expectancy as the number of "person years" remaining (starting at 1...
by Browser
Mon Dec 15, 2014 12:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 9640

Malkiel: consider foreign bonds, dividend stocks; no SCV

Words of advice from one of the legends of indexing. Worth a read: Look at some of the foreign bond markets, including emerging markets, or emerging market sovereign debt specifically, because a lot of the emerging markets are in actually quite good fiscal shape. A so-called dividend substitution st...
by Browser
Mon Dec 15, 2014 11:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel: consider foreign bonds, dividend stocks; no SCV
Replies: 1
Views: 565

Re: Harvey paper says re-balancing adds risk

Since we know that markets are more volatile when stocks are going down, and less volatile when trending up, it seems reasonable to assume that you are actually leveraging up the volatility of your portfolio when you add more stocks by selling less volatile bonds to rebalance. Likewise, you are leve...
by Browser
Mon Dec 15, 2014 10:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harvey paper says re-balancing adds risk
Replies: 73
Views: 4682

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I read that last week's drop was the largest weekly drop since this thread began in 2011. It took awhile but maybe the free fall is back in play. :shock: :shock: All these optimistic dip-buyer posters might be just the ticket. :D
by Browser
Mon Dec 15, 2014 10:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1064
Views: 187678

Re: Harvey paper says re-balancing adds risk

Now I understand. Financial economics is really a subdiscipline of electrical engineering and it's just math. Thank you. This should help. My background was stats and it's all just probability and supersitition over there :sharebeer Actually, not. I am a thermodynamicist and believe that all scienc...
by Browser
Sun Dec 14, 2014 12:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harvey paper says re-balancing adds risk
Replies: 73
Views: 4682

Re: Does 80/20 have more risk or volatility than 60/40?

you begin to get less return for each additional unit of risk above a 50% equity allocation. You get similar results when you look at SDs. 50/50 is a kind of "sweet spot" for the stock/bond allocation. At about 80% equities you get another decrease in the slope, indicating that an allocat...
by Browser
Sun Dec 14, 2014 12:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does 80/20 have more risk or volatility than 60/40?
Replies: 25
Views: 2649

Re: Harvey paper says re-balancing adds risk

Re-balancing is quite simple to understand. Given a fluctuating signal that has some trend, take the linear line joining the first value with the last. That is the trend. Subtract that from the signal. The remainder is the noise, which fluctuates about zero. Suppose you have two such signals, S(toc...
by Browser
Sat Dec 13, 2014 6:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harvey paper says re-balancing adds risk
Replies: 73
Views: 4682

Re: Harvey paper says re-balancing adds risk

As a disciple of the good Dr. W. Edwards Deming, I have to add some comments. The thing about Deming is he attempted to create a theory, a consistent belief system, that covered everything you need to know and do about managing quality. The same should be true about investing. You create a rational...
by Browser
Sat Dec 13, 2014 5:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harvey paper says re-balancing adds risk
Replies: 73
Views: 4682

Re: Does 80/20 have more risk or volatility than 60/40?

I'm not as interested in SD as a measure of risk, because it reflects gains as well as losses. IMO, a more meaningful metric is drawdowns. That's what investors are really worried about as "risk." I always like to take a look at the Simba spreadsheet data. Using TSM for stocks and TBM for ...
by Browser
Sat Dec 13, 2014 4:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does 80/20 have more risk or volatility than 60/40?
Replies: 25
Views: 2649

Re: Harvey paper says re-balancing adds risk

Probably the best thing most people could do is to forget to rebalance. After a few years they'd wake up with more money than if they had slavishly followed this mantra and be happy they forgot to do it. Stay unbalanced -- I like you just the way you are. :beer It is hard to avoid at least partial ...
by Browser
Sat Dec 13, 2014 1:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harvey paper says re-balancing adds risk
Replies: 73
Views: 4682
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