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Re: How should we invest if interest rates never go up?

couple things, first ignore rate forecasts--100% of economists were wrong about rates this year and most have been wrong for many years. Stay disciplined and take advantage of term premiums, especially when curve is steep--that is when term risk has been best rewarded And as noted, have to lower ex...
by Browser
Wed Oct 29, 2014 7:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How should we invest if interest rates never go up?
Replies: 17
Views: 1506

Re: MS Windows 7 Dead [in 2020]?

I wouldn't touch Win 8 with an 8-foot pole. It was well worth the search to find a new machine that came with Win 7. Let's hope that Win 9, 10 or whatever is as good as 7, or else I'll be using my Win 7 machine until the keys fall off.
by Browser
Wed Oct 29, 2014 7:26 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: MS Windows 7 Dead [in 2020]?
Replies: 23
Views: 1553

Re: Smartphone questions

Why Consumer Cellular? I've look at their offerings and they didn't look very appealing. It's not prepaid, but postpaid, and I think if you go over data or minutes, say from a rogue app, they bill you for any overage. And their overage charges are very high! I suggest you consider alternatives. Ove...
by Browser
Wed Oct 29, 2014 7:19 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Smartphone questions
Replies: 87
Views: 6159

How should we invest if interest rates never go up?

Japan has had near zero interest rates for two decades now. And a recent article discusses the likelihood that rates will never go up again in the U.K. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-british-interest-rates-will-never-go-up-again-2014-10-29?dist=beforebell The U.S. is in a similar position to t...
by Browser
Wed Oct 29, 2014 9:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How should we invest if interest rates never go up?
Replies: 17
Views: 1506

Re: Done with Honda, not sure what next car should be?

MotorTrend lists six recalls on Honda CRV related to airbags, since 2004. Now add the 7th recall that I received yesterday. And that's only one Honda model. They've been well aware of problems over the last decade with these airbags, yet here we are having to stuff our passengers into the back seat ...
by Browser
Mon Oct 27, 2014 10:08 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Done with Honda, not sure what next car should be?
Replies: 77
Views: 6868

Re: Done with Honda, not sure what next car should be?

I own a 2002 Honda CRV, and yes the exploding airbag is not a new problem. I entered my VIN on Honda website to check recalls and found that the driver airbag had been serviced in 2011 as the result of a recall that involved exactly the same problem as the current exploding passenger side airbag. I ...
by Browser
Sun Oct 26, 2014 10:31 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Done with Honda, not sure what next car should be?
Replies: 77
Views: 6868

Hedge CDs with long-term Treasurys?

I've got quite a bit of my portfolio presently tied up in short-term CDs (2-3 yrs) paying about 2.5% APY. If interest rate go up between now and the time they mature, I'll probably just roll them over. But what about if interest rates decline (possible deflationary scenario)? Does it make any sense ...
by Browser
Thu Oct 23, 2014 3:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedge CDs with long-term Treasurys?
Replies: 8
Views: 771

Re: Buying a car.

> Sounds like a sales pitch to me. Well you are trying to buy a vehicle and he is in the business of selling them. You could try going to Truecar or Edmunds or such to get some estimated prices. If nothing else it will give you a number that you can use to short-circuit the usual game. (The game is...
by Browser
Thu Oct 23, 2014 2:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a car.
Replies: 9
Views: 749

Do you regret buying your home?

As a lifelong renter, I've often wondered about this: 80 percent of homebuyers have at least one major regret about their new home, according to a recent HSH.com survey of 2,000 U.S. adults at least 25 years old and in possession of a driver's license. Only 20 percent of respondents said they had no...
by Browser
Thu Oct 23, 2014 2:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you regret buying your home?
Replies: 82
Views: 6764

Are manufacturer vehicle owner warranties transferrable

If you purchase a used vehicle, is the original manufacturer's warranty transferable from the original owner to you? For example, if the vehicle had an original warranty of 4 years or 50,000 miles and you purchase it at 2 years old and 20,000 miles will you have 2 years, 30,000 miles warranty covera...
by Browser
Thu Oct 23, 2014 1:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are manufacturer vehicle owner warranties transferrable
Replies: 5
Views: 382

Re: Buying a car.

I've bought cars used and new - it depends on the car and on the person. The last car I bought new was a Honda in 2008. A similar used Honda was about $1500 less than a new one at that point, so it didn't make sense to buy used. Alternately, the last used car I bought was a 2012 Volvo in 2014. As a...
by Browser
Thu Oct 23, 2014 12:39 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a car.
Replies: 9
Views: 749

Re: New Paper ". . . and the Cross-Section of Expected Retur

It isn't used because financial data are abysmal -- and yet we think that factor analyzing and multiple-regressing it is worth the time. Bill Sharpe is correct that you can't even trust that long term averages are meaningful: "Even if the Gods are kind and distributions never change - which is ...
by Browser
Mon Oct 20, 2014 12:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Paper ". . . and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns"
Replies: 8
Views: 707

Re: Fundamental Index Funds?

That's an interesting analysis, but I don't think I would conclude that they are giving you the same thing. If you take those funds compared in the article and run a factor analysis , there does appear to be a significant difference on the loads. The Schwab funds have an inception date of 5/1/2007,...
by Browser
Mon Oct 20, 2014 12:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fundamental Index Funds?
Replies: 14
Views: 1341

Re: Dumb CD question

You're on the right track. You can come out better with a longer CD even with the penalty. However, the longer term higher-paying CDs nowadays often have a bigger penalty, often in the range of 9 months to a year instead of just 6 months like in the past; so you need to calculate the actual net ret...
by Browser
Mon Oct 20, 2014 9:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dumb CD question
Replies: 10
Views: 907

Dumb CD question

I'm comparing directly purchased (from local credit union) CDs of 21, 34, and 60 months offering 2.0%, 2.25%, and 2.50% APY respectively. There is a 6-month interest penalty for early redemption on each. Is there any reason in the world not to purchase the one with the highest APY (60 months), since...
by Browser
Sun Oct 19, 2014 11:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dumb CD question
Replies: 10
Views: 907

Re: The Final, Definitive Thread on Rebalancing

I live in Japan and rebalanced from 1990 to 2010. I didn't like it. :-(
by Browser
Sun Oct 19, 2014 10:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Final, Definitive Thread on Rebalancing
Replies: 24
Views: 1894

Weird problem with a bank website: Chrome or Win8 (I think)

All of a sudden I have a strange problem with my bank website that I think might involve either Windows 8 or my Chrome browser. When I log onto the site, my account information quickly flashes onto the screen and then jumps to a blank screen. It appears I'm still logged in but nothing at all is disp...
by Browser
Sun Oct 19, 2014 10:48 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Weird problem with a bank website: Chrome or Win8 (I think)
Replies: 7
Views: 541

New Research Affiliates website: predicted asset returns

[Thread merged into here, see below. --admin LadyGeek] The boys at Research Affiliates have put up a new website that contains their forecasts for asset returns going forward. Have a look at U.S. small cap - 0% return with 20% volatility. Toxic. http://www.researchaffiliates.com/AssetAllocation/Pag...
by Browser
Sat Oct 18, 2014 10:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long term return forecast [Research Affil. Expected returns]
Replies: 33
Views: 2443

Re: Smartphone questions

One consideration if you plan to keep the phone for longer than 2-3 years is whether the battery is replaceable. For users looking for a longer replacement cycle, a nonreplaceable battery will likely be the weak link. I have a MyTouch 4G and the battery died after 2 years. The replacement cost $15 ...
by Browser
Sat Oct 18, 2014 10:35 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Smartphone questions
Replies: 87
Views: 6159

Re: Smartphone questions

Moto-X. A perfect sized phone. Looked at the new iPhone 6. It has the same sized screen as Moto, but it's dimensions are too long and narrow. I think they dropped the ball on that one. Android has caught up and passed. Apple has seen it's day, but it was a great day while it lasted.
by Browser
Sat Oct 18, 2014 9:36 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Smartphone questions
Replies: 87
Views: 6159

Re: Android Auto -- Google in your car

Browser: I agree with you. Android Auto seems like a great step forward for smartphone-car integration. I too want to hold off on buying a new car until Android Auto is available. I was a bit discouraged though by some recent news from my preferred brand, Honda. They are an Android Auto partner but...
by Browser
Fri Oct 17, 2014 5:29 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Android Auto -- Google in your car
Replies: 6
Views: 589

Re: Android Auto -- Google in your car

Boglehead Android Auto... http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00GZZTTEM?psc=1 Works today in my 1991 BMW. I use this stuff too, but it's a PITA and I'd be more than happy to have a built-in screen in my dashboard that acts like my smartphone. Plus this integrates all of your smartphone functions with your ca...
by Browser
Fri Oct 17, 2014 5:23 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Android Auto -- Google in your car
Replies: 6
Views: 589

Android Auto -- Google in your car

At last! The antidote to krummy and overpriced car infotainment systems. You'l be able to plug your android smartphone into your car's infotainment system via a USB port and project your smartphone onto the screen, including Google maps. Absolutely love this idea. Been in the market for a new car, b...
by Browser
Fri Oct 17, 2014 12:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Android Auto -- Google in your car
Replies: 6
Views: 589

Re: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?

So far over 24,000 views by folks who don't care about market losses and/or welcome them as a great buying opportunity. Wonder what the average equity allocation is of the peekers? Bowser - if you are going to persist in your fear-mongering, I think you owe it to people here to outline the specific...
by Browser
Thu Oct 16, 2014 12:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 445
Views: 30348

Re: why you might not want to buy what's popular

Doesn't investing in cap-weighted funds amount to buying what's popular, or at least tilting in that direction?
by Browser
Thu Oct 16, 2014 11:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why you might not want to buy what's popular
Replies: 8
Views: 1179

Re: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?

So far over 24,000 views by folks who don't care about market losses and/or welcome them as a great buying opportunity. Wonder what the average equity allocation is of the peekers?
by Browser
Thu Oct 16, 2014 10:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 445
Views: 30348

Re: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?

Browser wrote:TSM is now down by 8% since 9/18 when this drop began. But who's counting?

Just to add a negative twist, don't forget that 8% loss actually erased nearly the last 9% of your market gains -- 8.7% to be exact.
by Browser
Thu Oct 16, 2014 12:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 445
Views: 30348

Re: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?

TSM is now down by 8% since 9/18 when this drop began. But who's counting?
by Browser
Wed Oct 15, 2014 6:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 445
Views: 30348

Re: Bill Sharpe on the 4% SWR rule (he thinks it's silly)

A 4% inflation adjusted rule may be simplistic, but it is far better than any complicated plan assuming 8% yield, and far better than having fear cause you to do foolish things. The 4% rule is just wrong, for the reasons explained by Sharpe. I don't see how something that is wrong can be better tha...
by Browser
Wed Oct 15, 2014 4:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe on the 4% SWR rule (he thinks it's silly)
Replies: 51
Views: 4641

Re: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?

Those intermediate Treasurys I bought are looking pretty good now - up 9% YTD. Thank goodness all those economists were predicting interest rates would fall this year --- NOT! And what about those stocks -- up 1.5% YTD. Those economists predicting stocks were the place to be this year instead of bon...
by Browser
Wed Oct 15, 2014 4:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 445
Views: 30348

Re: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?

Toons wrote:
VA_Gent wrote:Why does everyone believe down 75-90% is impossible?
It has happened in many countries before. Not just Japan.


Sounds Great!!
A lot more shares for the money :sharebeer

And a lot less money for the shares you already have. How does this make any sense????
by Browser
Wed Oct 15, 2014 12:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 445
Views: 30348

Re: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?

Anybody planning to do this?

Image
by Browser
Wed Oct 15, 2014 11:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 445
Views: 30348

Re: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?

nelson1015 wrote:I'm curious to hear if anyone cares to speculate what they "think" the bottom of this correction will look like.

It won't be the bottom until it goes back up. I don't know when it will go back up, so I don't know what the bottom will look like.
by Browser
Wed Oct 15, 2014 11:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 445
Views: 30348

Re: How will we know if value-tilting has stopped working?

Bill Sharpe made an interesting comment pertaining to the risk story about value stocks. He observed that value risk premium could actually include the risk that these stocks could implode if there were a severe depression. The higher returns from value stocks over the last several decades could ref...
by Browser
Wed Oct 15, 2014 10:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How will we know if value-tilting has stopped working?
Replies: 44
Views: 3062

Re: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?

Thanks Victoria and letsgobobby, good feedback. lgb, some time ago you mentioned a risk tolerance investing simulator. Was that a specific simulator you were working on, or were you speaking about risk tolerance quizzes/tests in general? Paul I think sometimes people understand risk better in dolla...
by Browser
Wed Oct 15, 2014 10:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 445
Views: 30348

Re: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?

Whoops. Looks like another 300+ day shaping up. Good opportunity to revisit your risk tolerance.
by Browser
Wed Oct 15, 2014 9:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 445
Views: 30348

Re: How will we know if value-tilting has stopped working?

Browser, How will you know if the equity premium has stopped working--it's the same question. It's simply a cost of capital story. Value stocks have higher costs of capital and thus have higher expected returns (the flip side). Investors demand a premium, for whatever reason, either behavioral or r...
by Browser
Tue Oct 14, 2014 5:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How will we know if value-tilting has stopped working?
Replies: 44
Views: 3062

Re: Bill Sharpe on the 4% SWR rule (he thinks it's silly)

Here's the $64 question. What approach should replace the 4% Rule? Obviously, it should not be a constant withdrawal strategy such as the 4% rule. But just as obviously, it shouldn't be just a seat-of-the-pants approach either. One of the objectives of the 4% solution was to replace hunches and intu...
by Browser
Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe on the 4% SWR rule (he thinks it's silly)
Replies: 51
Views: 4641

Re: How will we know if value-tilting has stopped working?

There are lots of ways to do slightly worse than the market and still do well enough. One of the ways is to pay higher investment expenses, and a favorite topic on BH is how devastating a mere fraction of a percent given away in expenses can be to one's nestegg. So is it wrong to be concerned about...
by Browser
Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How will we know if value-tilting has stopped working?
Replies: 44
Views: 3062

Re: How is Consumer Cellular

It's possible to parse the phrasing a couple of ways, so we'll see. The GoPhone rates aren't too bad if you keep the data usage down, but CC will be a notch cheaper if my wife and I share a plan. Plus you'll get better coverage than GoPhone, because CC uses the full AT&T postpaid network which ...
by Browser
Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:06 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How is Consumer Cellular
Replies: 39
Views: 6945

Re: Bill Sharpe on the 4% SWR rule (he thinks it's silly)

People like to spin the 4% rule by commenting that it's not a "rule" -- it's a suggestion. But it is almost universally called the "4% Rule". To set the record straight, Bengen very clearly outlines a process ... This was never intended to be a "rule" and Bengen in oth...
by Browser
Tue Oct 14, 2014 10:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe on the 4% SWR rule (he thinks it's silly)
Replies: 51
Views: 4641

How will we know if value-tilting has stopped working?

Bill Sharpe has often expressed skepticism about portfolio "tilting,", for example he says: if everybody – or even if a substantial number of people – know that somehow or other a value-tilted portfolio will be better for everybody than a market portfolio, then that’s not consistent with e...
by Browser
Tue Oct 14, 2014 10:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How will we know if value-tilting has stopped working?
Replies: 44
Views: 3062

Re: How is Consumer Cellular

How does the number porting thing work? Are they going to contact ATT to stop service immediately? Thanks. Your new carrier has to contact your old carrier to get them to release your number. This generally means you need to give your new carrier the account password to your old account. We've been...
by Browser
Tue Oct 14, 2014 10:06 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How is Consumer Cellular
Replies: 39
Views: 6945

Re: Bill Sharpe on the 4% SWR rule (he thinks it's silly)

People like to spin the 4% rule by commenting that it's not a "rule" -- it's a suggestion. But it is almost universally called the "4% Rule". To set the record straight, Bengen very clearly outlines a process to be followed by financial advisors, in which they are instructed to a...
by Browser
Tue Oct 14, 2014 12:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe on the 4% SWR rule (he thinks it's silly)
Replies: 51
Views: 4641

Re: Roth to Roth rollover rules

Another factor in the new rules is that instead of depending on IRA custodians to enforce the rule, the IRS will now have 1099R and 5498 forms for each IRA therefore a simple computer match program will expose this error to the IRS. You would then have a taxable distribution, or perhaps for a Roth ...
by Browser
Tue Oct 14, 2014 12:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth to Roth rollover rules
Replies: 4
Views: 482

Re: Smartphone plans and MMS

How did you send or receive SMS text over wifi? You don't have to use data for SMS, it goes over the regular cell phone network. SMS predates usable mobile data connections and is built into the protocol. MMS however typically requires a data connection to the cell phone network (wifi usually doesn...
by Browser
Mon Oct 13, 2014 11:29 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Smartphone plans and MMS
Replies: 11
Views: 831

Re: Smartphone plans and MMS

We're thinking of buying a smartphone to use with an MNVO. We currently use Pageplus with old phones, so I'm familiar and comfortable with the pay-as-you-go system. My wife is happy with her old phone, but it would be nice for her to have a camera for capturing photos. She uses our tablet to take q...
by Browser
Mon Oct 13, 2014 7:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Smartphone plans and MMS
Replies: 11
Views: 831

Bill Sharpe on the 4% SWR rule (he thinks it's silly)

The extreme case is the 4% rule or, more generally, the X% rule in which there are no adjustments. Two things are self evident and shouldn’t require much discussion. What you spend should depend upon (1) how much you’ve got and (2) how long you think you might live, or the range of possible lengths...
by Browser
Mon Oct 13, 2014 6:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe on the 4% SWR rule (he thinks it's silly)
Replies: 51
Views: 4641

Re: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?

Down another 221 points so far today -- bear watch is on.

Image
by Browser
Mon Oct 13, 2014 4:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 445
Views: 30348

Re: Gold: Is now the time?

The thing that's the same with gold and CCF is that they are both dead weight as long-term investments.
by Browser
Mon Oct 13, 2014 1:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold: Is now the time?
Replies: 36
Views: 2304
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