Search found 4673 matches

by Browser
Thu Sep 03, 2015 2:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross: cash is your best investment right now
Replies: 0
Views: 98

Bill Gross: cash is your best investment right now

Bill Gross in his latest Investment Outlook thinks that the risks are now much greater than the rewards for most investment assets: Cash or better yet “near cash” such as 1-2 year corporate bonds are my best idea of appropriate risks/reward investments. The reward is not much, but as Will Rogers onc...
by Browser
Tue Sep 01, 2015 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1995
Views: 382259

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Going from a bad day to a very bad day. DJIA now down nearly 500 points. 16,000 in jeopardy (I wanted to see if I could spell jeopardy). :(
by Browser
Tue Sep 01, 2015 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1995
Views: 382259

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Let's just go with how much it loses until it bottoms out. I have no idea what the market will be on a particular day. As we speak, it looks like TSM is down 9% from it's high on June 23. I'll wager it goes down by another 40% from the June 23 high before it's done, sometime in the next 6 month per...
by Browser
Tue Sep 01, 2015 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1995
Views: 382259

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Let's just go with how much it loses until it bottoms out. I have no idea what the market will be on a particular day. As we speak, it looks like TSM is down 9% from it's high on June 23. I'll wager it goes down by another 40% from the June 23 high before it's done, sometime in the next 6 month peri...
by Browser
Tue Sep 01, 2015 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1995
Views: 382259

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Typical bear market behavior. Large moves down and up, high volatility, and the trend is down. My hunch is that we'll look back in a few months and see it as the point where the risk showed up. And we'll say "why didn't we see it -- it was so obvious!" :oops: Ah, an actual prediction! Sha...
by Browser
Tue Sep 01, 2015 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1995
Views: 382259

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Typical bear market behavior. Large moves down and up, high volatility, and the trend is down. My hunch is that we'll look back in a few months and see it as the point where the risk showed up. And we'll say "why didn't we see it -- it was so obvious!" :oops:
by Browser
Tue Sep 01, 2015 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1995
Views: 382259

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

If your time horizon is forever - as is Buffett's - you should probably always be buying. But in the real world that the rest of live in, we have spending liabilities that must be met within a much shorter timeframe, so we must pay attention to markets and act accordingly.
by Browser
Tue Sep 01, 2015 10:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New SUV, $50G, Pilot/Highlander/Other
Replies: 30
Views: 2686

Re: New SUV, $50G, Pilot/Highlander/Other

AZAttorney11 wrote:What about the new Lexus NX? I think it's in the $35,000 to $40,000 range.

This is a compact-ute. The OP is asking about large SUVs.
by Browser
Tue Sep 01, 2015 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rising equity glidepath in retirement and Bernstein's lump sum sequence risk
Replies: 0
Views: 185

Rising equity glidepath in retirement and Bernstein's lump sum sequence risk

Contrary to the "age in bonds" rule, which is based on the idea of lowering equity risk during retirement with a declining equity allocation (glidepath), others (Kitces & Pfau) have argued that a rising equity allocation during retirement produces higher portfolio survival probability....
by Browser
Tue Sep 01, 2015 9:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New SUV, $50G, Pilot/Highlander/Other
Replies: 30
Views: 2686

Re: New SUV, $50G, Pilot/Highlander/Other

From what I read the new Volvo XC90 is tops. But you'll pay more than $50K for one, no discounts, and you'll be on a waiting list to get one.
by Browser
Tue Sep 01, 2015 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1995
Views: 382259

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Just crossed 400+ down 3 minutes after the open.
by Browser
Tue Sep 01, 2015 8:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New SUV, $50G, Pilot/Highlander/Other
Replies: 30
Views: 2686

Re: New SUV, $50G, Pilot/Highlander/Other

I own a 2012 Volvo XC60 purchased new, platinum edition. It is the 3.0 liter turbo AWD model. 30k miles now. Seats 5. Absolutely outstanding in the snow and wet (Michelin HP Tour all season tires). Decent gas mileage, around 20 mpg suburban and 25 mpg highway. Very powerful for freeway merges. Extr...
by Browser
Tue Sep 01, 2015 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1995
Views: 382259

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Futures are lining up for a 400 point haircut on the DOW at the open. Poor dip buyers getting whipsawed again!
by Browser
Sat Aug 29, 2015 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Managing sequence risk approaching retirement using valuations
Replies: 14
Views: 848

Managing sequence risk approaching retirement using valuations

Just read an interesting paper from GMO regarding the effects of sequence of return risk during the accumulation stage of a retirement portfolio, not the decumulation stage. The paper argues that the final 10 years or so until retirement is the critical stage during which unfavorable stock market re...
by Browser
Fri Aug 28, 2015 12:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What about the Ford Edge? [Revised for 2015 model]
Replies: 90
Views: 8462

Re: What about the Ford Edge? [Revised for 2015 model]

- Audi Q3, Q5 - VW Tiguan - Lincoln MKC - Jeep Cherokee - Subaru Forester, Outback Still in the running: - Acura RDX - Ford Edge - Volvo XC-60 I'm in a nearly identical situation. Any chance you could elaborate on why the Q3 was tossed out? I'm between Edge/Murano/Q3 at the moment but haven't been ...
by Browser
Thu Aug 27, 2015 11:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kitces - Managing the Medicare B Premium Spike
Replies: 27
Views: 2708

Re: Kitces - Managing the Medicare B Premium Spike

I'm thinking mostly of people who have "filed and suspended" their SS benefits. In my case, I started benefits early and then thought better of it and suspended benefits when I reached FRA (I believe you can't suspend until then if you've already started payments). I had to pay a higher Me...
by Browser
Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kitces - Managing the Medicare B Premium Spike
Replies: 27
Views: 2708

Re: Kitces - Managing the Medicare B Premium Spike

My understanding is that the "hold harmless" will lead to the increase for "just the others" only until the COLA has caught up so that everyone has similar premiums, and then they would all increase together (unless this happens again). Just so I'm clear. This is confusing me. Y...
by Browser
Thu Aug 27, 2015 9:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kitces - Managing the Medicare B Premium Spike
Replies: 27
Views: 2708

Re: Kitces - Managing the Medicare B Premium Spike

If there is any good news for those affected it's the condition may not be permanent. In 2010 I was paying $96.50/mo for my part B. In 2011 there was no increase for me. I continued paying $96.50. But when DW came on Medicare that year her premiums were $115.40/mo. There was a small increase in 201...
by Browser
Thu Aug 27, 2015 7:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kitces - Managing the Medicare B Premium Spike
Replies: 27
Views: 2708

Re: Kitces - Managing the Medicare B Premium Spike

Thanks for the article. I found out about "hold harmless" when I suspended my Social Security benefits a while back. My Medicare premiums were increased more each year than for those receiving Social Security and I was blindsided. Seemed unfair to me at the time, and it probably is unfair,...
by Browser
Wed Aug 26, 2015 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SPLV low volatility fund not so low
Replies: 3
Views: 312

Re: SPLV low volatility fund not so low

Not necessarily an indictment of low vol. USMV did much better. SPLV is much more sector concentrated than USMV, which accounts for what happened. Big whoop.
by Browser
Wed Aug 26, 2015 5:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What about the Ford Edge? [Revised for 2015 model]
Replies: 90
Views: 8462

Re: What about the Ford Edge? [Revised for 2015 model]

I just TD'd the Highlander and was quite disappointed with it. I expected a somewhat smoother ride over rough street pavement in my area. It was OK but nothing special. I also noticed some "tire-slap" noise over this rough pavement. Most noticeable deficiency was the visibility of the nav ...
by Browser
Wed Aug 26, 2015 4:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Has anyone used Automatic, Mojio, or Zubie car devices?
Replies: 0
Views: 653

Has anyone used Automatic, Mojio, or Zubie car devices?

Just ran across an article about these in the WSJ and they sound interesting. You connect them to the OBD-II port in your car and they can provide all sorts of info, including monitoring of your car's health. Would like to learn more about what they can do, limitations, and if any are worth trying o...
by Browser
Wed Aug 26, 2015 4:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What about the Ford Edge? [Revised for 2015 model]
Replies: 90
Views: 8462

Re: What about the Ford Edge? [Revised for 2015 model]

That's a nice list, but I don't see the Murano. Did you forget to list it, or did you have second thoughts? Looked at it in the dealer lot over the weekend again, and I'm just not into the body styling. Also, rear visibility is on my desirable list and the rear "fin" design looks like a n...
by Browser
Wed Aug 26, 2015 2:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What about the Ford Edge? [Revised for 2015 model]
Replies: 90
Views: 8462

Re: What about the Ford Edge? [Revised for 2015 model]

Browser - Have you made any decisions? ...We did what's known as a "hold contract" - apply for a loan so we can take the car off the lot now. Then, I get them a certified check in a few days and the loan is canceled. I was quite surprised that my bank no longer offered certified checks; I...
by Browser
Wed Aug 26, 2015 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1995
Views: 382259

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Just to clarify, my comment about "being brave" is not directed to folks of the buy-and-hold faith but mainly to the dip buyers who seem to believe that now is a good time to buy more stock or "rebalance." That sort of market timing will probably get you into a whole bunch of hot...
by Browser
Wed Aug 26, 2015 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1995
Views: 382259

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

As pointed out by many, the worst time to be invested in stocks is when they are expensive and when they are downtrending. We are 2 for 2 right now. CAPE has come down but is still high by historical standards (24 vs. 16), and the S&P has fallen well below it's long term moving average. Not a go...
by Browser
Wed Aug 26, 2015 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do Markets Crash in the Middle of the Month?
Replies: 12
Views: 1223

Re: Why do Markets Crash in the Middle of the Month?

You might have missed this one: The Wall Street Crash of 1929, also known as Black Tuesday,[1] the Great Crash, or the Stock Market Crash of 1929, began on October 24, 1929, and was the most devastating stock market crash in the history of the United States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_...
by Browser
Wed Aug 26, 2015 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1995
Views: 382259

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

That has nothing to do with why I disliked your post. I assume these people are here to get new investors to buy the B.S. and send them a PM and get sent to a "pump n' dump" forum. For those following such things, the S&P would have to rise 9.2% from it's level so far today in order t...
by Browser
Wed Aug 26, 2015 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1995
Views: 382259

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

For those following such things, the S&P would have to rise 9.2% from it's level so far today in order to break back above it's 200-day moving average.
by Browser
Tue Aug 25, 2015 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A perspective on the current selloff in the S&P 500
Replies: 6
Views: 2657

Re: A perspective on the current selloff in the S&P 500

Apparently, my linked chart is dynamic and now shows that the current selloff is the 3rd worst since the low in 2009. Pretty sweet, eh? You can keep track in real time as this market selloff rolls on!
by Browser
Tue Aug 25, 2015 5:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1995
Views: 382259

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

DaftInvestor wrote:My question is why are all the market timers landing here in the bogleheads forum? There are countless stock picking message boards where folks spend all day discussing their market timing speculations....

Because they think they are hedgehogs...
by Browser
Tue Aug 25, 2015 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1995
Views: 382259

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

The Dip Buyers must have whiplash.
by Browser
Mon Aug 24, 2015 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1995
Views: 382259

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I'm going to wait until the bad stocks have been corrected and prices are correct before investing. Who said this was difficult? :mrgreen:
by Browser
Mon Aug 24, 2015 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1995
Views: 382259

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

They call these moves "corrections." I've never understood what that means. Was the price of stocks "incorrect" before? If it was incorrect why were we owning them? Or maybe they were just being "bad stocks" and needed to be taken out behind the woodshed to be corrected...
by Browser
Mon Aug 24, 2015 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1995
Views: 382259

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

It's the commodities, Stupid! Anybody who didn't know this stock market downdraft was coming just hasn't been paying attention. Commodities started down on May 15 and are now down by 25% since then (commodity basket). This is a true DUH! moment. This bear isn't done by a long shot.
by Browser
Mon Aug 24, 2015 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1995
Views: 382259

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I was following Marketwatch. Their ticker is crazy. Showed DOW down by over 1500 then 2 seconds later down by 789. What's going on?
by Browser
Mon Aug 24, 2015 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1995
Views: 382259

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Down 1300. Full-on crash mode.
by Browser
Mon Aug 24, 2015 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1995
Views: 382259

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Down over 1000 right at the open. Whew!
by Browser
Mon Aug 24, 2015 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1995
Views: 382259

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

As a newer investor who dumped his entire net worth into a 80/20 portfolio over the past few months this definitely doesn't feel very good -_- If it always felt good, everyone would be doing it. The reason you generally make money at this is that there's always the small nagging fear that it will b...
by Browser
Mon Aug 24, 2015 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1995
Views: 382259

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Ladies and Gentlemen: It's official. US stocks in freefall. DOW futures down by more than 600 points this morning, Monday Aug 24, 2015. The good news is that you'll have an opportunity to check your risk tolerance today. The risk has shown up! :happy
by Browser
Fri Aug 21, 2015 10:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller PE10 nearing nosebleed territory?
Replies: 322
Views: 36355

Re: Shiller PE10 nearing nosebleed territory?

Much better valuations exist in International markets. I think they will outperform the US Famous last words? It is quite amazing to read the first few pots here, and duly note that they were written circa 2.5 years ago. Not being long the market during that time would have proven to be a big mista...
by Browser
Fri Aug 21, 2015 10:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1995
Views: 382259

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I don't keep "dry powder" to buy on dips. Everything I intend to invest, is invested. Guess I can only take advantage of "sales" that coincide with my Jan Roth investments or my bi-weekly contributions. Darn. That's probably the best way to do it, but I'm sure there a plenty of ...
by Browser
Fri Aug 21, 2015 10:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: time for a new car?
Replies: 26
Views: 2487

Re: time for a new car?

Pro - You want a new car Con - From your description it doesn't sound like you need a new car. well said...the age old dilemma between a person's wants and their actual needs... No-one actually ever needs a new car (unless of course the old one explodes, and even then you don't need a new one). It'...
by Browser
Fri Aug 21, 2015 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A perspective on the current selloff in the S&P 500
Replies: 6
Views: 2657

A perspective on the current selloff in the S&P 500

Wonderful chart from Doug Short: http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/markets/SPX-drawdowns.png So, far there have been 14 selloffs greater than 5% since the bottom in March 2009, including this one. The current one is still garden-variety as these have gone. It's worse than 8 of the pre...
by Browser
Fri Aug 21, 2015 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1995
Views: 382259

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I'm obviously talking about a situation where the investor has a wad of cash he'd like to put into stocks. If it were already in there, there's no need for a formula for getting into the market, comprende?
by Browser
Fri Aug 21, 2015 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Greenspan: we've got a bond bubble, Houston
Replies: 71
Views: 6213

Re: Greenspan: we've got a bond bubble, Houston

While we're debating a "bond bubble", the equity market has gone down as much in one week as you could expect a bond bubble to go down in a year. And the bond bubble has become even more bubble-licious (at least treasuries) as all the rats leaving the U.S.S. S&P are scrambling for bon...
by Browser
Fri Aug 21, 2015 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller PE10 nearing nosebleed territory?
Replies: 322
Views: 36355

Re: Shiller PE10 nearing nosebleed territory?

TorturedRegret wrote:Interesting to note the market (SPY) is up over 25% since this post.
PE10 is now at 25. A lot lower than '00 and '08.

That is interesting. Even after today's hit, the S&P is up by 29% since the original post, while CAPE is up just 5% from the level then. What to make of it?
by Browser
Fri Aug 21, 2015 10:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: time for a new car?
Replies: 26
Views: 2487

Re: time for a new car?

Consider that the trade-in value of your 04 Accord is probably about 2-cents at this point and ask yourself if you could replace it for less money. When you say "no", you will have your answer. I'm in the same boat with my 02 CRV and was offered $1500 in trade on a new car. Since I spend m...
by Browser
Fri Aug 21, 2015 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1995
Views: 382259

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

There must be some sort of rule pertaining to buying while the market is going down the tank. I ran across one just recently that might work: at the first trigger point (say down 10% for purpose of argument), deploy 25% of your wad and then begin DCAing in the rest over whatever period seems right t...
by Browser
Fri Aug 21, 2015 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1995
Views: 382259

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

backpacker wrote:
Browser wrote:Mr. Market to Earth -- have I got your attention? :?:


Earth: "Eh? We couldn't hear you. Too much noise."

Guess I'll have to amp it up then.

Go to advanced search