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Re: Shiller CAPE 10 — Why So High These Days?

Shiller PE ratio is almost useless in telling us where the market is going in the next year. But it is breath-takingly powerful in telling us what kinds of returns to expect on a five to ten year basis. And the Shiller PE ratio is telling us don't expect much return over the next five to ten years....
by Browser
Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller CAPE 10 — Why So High These Days?
Replies: 17
Views: 995

Re: Shiller CAPE 10 — Why So High These Days?

Here's another perspective on the relationship between interest rates and the equity risk premium (ERP). This author finds an R*2 of .83 between the initial rate on long-term treasuries and subsequent 15-year equity returns. In other words, the low rate prevailing today would suggest low 15-year equ...
by Browser
Tue Nov 25, 2014 9:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller CAPE 10 — Why So High These Days?
Replies: 17
Views: 995

Re: Question about taking Required Minimum Distribution from

With some complications, this can be done. If you are still working, you may qualify for in service distributions from the 403b with no 403b RMD required. You could do direct rollovers to your IRA at least equal to your IRA RMD amount , and then use those assets to meet your IRA RMD. But if you are...
by Browser
Tue Nov 25, 2014 9:26 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Question about taking Required Minimum Distribution from IRA
Replies: 3
Views: 430

Question about taking Required Minimum Distribution from IRA

In order to take the RMD from an IRA account and not disturb the current investments in that account (which consist of a TIPS income bond ladder starting in 5 years), an investor wants to fund the RMD by transferring the necessary amount of cash from a different account, which is a 403(b), into the ...
by Browser
Tue Nov 25, 2014 6:25 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Question about taking Required Minimum Distribution from IRA
Replies: 3
Views: 430

Re: Shiller CAPE 10 — Why So High These Days?

Siegel also believes CAPE is wrong: Robert Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings Ratio, or CAPE Ratio is the single best forecaster of long-term future stock returns. But research presented here suggests that over the last several years CAPE ratio forecasts have been too pessimistic because r...
by Browser
Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller CAPE 10 — Why So High These Days?
Replies: 17
Views: 995

Re: Shiller CAPE 10 — Why So High These Days?

Looks like Jeremy Siegel agrees about rates. Full speed ahead, mateys: I consider the fair value of the S&P 500 to be approximately 2,300. That is not necessarily a forecast for the end of this coming year, but I believe we are in a permanently lower interest rate environment, which supports hig...
by Browser
Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller CAPE 10 — Why So High These Days?
Replies: 17
Views: 995

Re: Been out of market since 2008 and can't get back in

I figure that when someone sitting in $1M cash for the last 5 years is finally ready to capitulate and buy stocks, the top is in. I'm selling everything tomorrow. :P
by Browser
Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Been out of market since 2008 and can't get back in
Replies: 39
Views: 2330

Re: Shiller CAPE 10 — Why So High These Days?

I'm hoping that this time really is different -- as so many intelligent, knowledgeable, well-informed and respected people are advising, but I'm getting my Plan B in order just in case it isn't. I'd hate to have to bet on "benign investment conditions" lasting for decades.
by Browser
Tue Nov 25, 2014 2:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller CAPE 10 — Why So High These Days?
Replies: 17
Views: 995

Re: Shiller CAPE 10 — Why So High These Days?

We've already been at above average PE/10 levels since 1991. Either we've entered a new regime or there is one he** of a regression to the mean coming up one day.
by Browser
Tue Nov 25, 2014 1:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller CAPE 10 — Why So High These Days?
Replies: 17
Views: 995

Re: Been out of market since 2008 and can't get back in

If you're not planning on living on the money in retirement accounts when you retire, then you must be intending to pass that to your heirs? If that's the case and you are 44 years old, then it seems you should be largely invested in equities -- so what's the problem?
by Browser
Tue Nov 25, 2014 11:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Been out of market since 2008 and can't get back in
Replies: 39
Views: 2330

Re: Update on the ascent of CAPE

Of course, you can't use PE/10 to time the market. But it's interesting that if you had switched your allocation from 100% in stocks to 100% in intermediate treasuries in January, 1996 (when PE10 breached 27) you could have stayed 100% in treasuries until 2009 (14 years) and gotten the same compound...
by Browser
Mon Nov 24, 2014 5:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Update on the ascent of CAPE
Replies: 19
Views: 1422

Re: 2015 Suburu Outback

I don't believe in buying a new model when it's in high demand. Never could figure out what's so great about any vehicle that I'd stand in line and pony up the dealer's asking price. Maybe the Outback is the Greatest Car Ever Made - but I don't think so...
by Browser
Mon Nov 24, 2014 1:52 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2015 Suburu Outback
Replies: 52
Views: 5289

Re: Update on the ascent of CAPE

Are you assuming that the guy who would buy your stock portfolio doesn't know about CAPE? The Shiller PE10 valuation measure just keeps trucking along. Since my last report, CAPE (Shiller PE/10) has now breached 27 on it's upward trajectory. This value has been exceeded by 84 of 1607 month-end valu...
by Browser
Mon Nov 24, 2014 1:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Update on the ascent of CAPE
Replies: 19
Views: 1422

Re: Update on the ascent of CAPE

There's a reason its called the "Wall of Worry' the markets' ability to climb the wall of worry is most clearly discernible at the end of major bear trends, which means that the markets may continue to advance once the wall has been surmounted. However, a continued advance is much less certain...
by Browser
Mon Nov 24, 2014 12:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Update on the ascent of CAPE
Replies: 19
Views: 1422

Re: Trading in a car - worth it to fix cosmetic issues?

Have a similar problem. Car was sideswiped while parked and rear door damaged. Insurance co. cut me a check for $1200 ($500 deductible) and I can repair the car for about $1700. Estimate wholesale at $4000 and retail at $5000 if it were undamaged. I can either spend the $1700 to fix it or keep the c...
by Browser
Mon Nov 24, 2014 10:38 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Trading in a car - worth it to fix cosmetic issues?
Replies: 8
Views: 971

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

Don't you think that investors are being driven toward these rather exotic investments by the miserable returns we see everywhere? We look at bonds and see nada return forever and the possibility of capital losses if interest rates ever start to rise. We look at stocks and see that expected returns ...
by Browser
Sun Nov 23, 2014 12:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 107
Views: 6701

Re: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter wh

Haven't heard anything from Bodie in months. No new posts on his website. Is he OK?
by Browser
Sat Nov 22, 2014 7:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter what
Replies: 53
Views: 3774

Re: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter wh

Isn't this pretty much the old liability-matching vs. total return debate? What's new? Don't plan to follow the hashout of the usual samo samo pro vs. con arguments in this thread since it is really boooooring!
by Browser
Sat Nov 22, 2014 11:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I will fund retirement with TIPs ladder no matter what
Replies: 53
Views: 3774

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

Far as I know, statistical estimates are dependent on assumption of the underlying or "true" distribution of the events we are trying to estimate. As Sharpe points out, we don't know what those distributions are, and we don't even know if they remain constant (which is unlikely). Applying ...
by Browser
Sat Nov 22, 2014 9:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 79
Views: 6185

Tell me about FitBit - is it worth having?

[Thread merged into here, see below. --admin LadyGeek] Thinking about FitBit as a gift. Has anybody used this, and what do you think? Who is it appropriate for - mostly hardcore exercise types or can regular folks interested in their health get something out of using one? What can you do with it? W...
by Browser
Fri Nov 21, 2014 3:26 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Fitbit, Vivofit, or other?
Replies: 55
Views: 2013

The mathematics of recouping loss

Thought this graphic was an interesting depiction of the escalating impact of portfolio losses.

Image
by Browser
Fri Nov 21, 2014 2:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The mathematics of recouping loss
Replies: 11
Views: 1242

Update on the ascent of CAPE

The Shiller PE10 valuation measure just keeps trucking along. Since my last report, CAPE (Shiller PE/10) has now breached 27 on it's upward trajectory. This value has been exceeded by 84 of 1607 month-end values in the PE/10 database, or 5.2%. 60 of those monthly values, or 71.4%, occurred between J...
by Browser
Fri Nov 21, 2014 2:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Update on the ascent of CAPE
Replies: 19
Views: 1422

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

It's really all guesswork in the end, isn't it? Despite all the research based on dredging through the past, nobody has a clue about what will happen going forward. Try landing your portfolio on a comet with the kind of information we have in finance and see what happens. :oops:
by Browser
Fri Nov 21, 2014 2:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 79
Views: 6185

Re: smartphone over wifi - still possible?

I've tried several AT&T MVNOs and ended up with Consumer Cellular. The monthly price point to compare is $30/month with MVNOs like AirVoice and H2O, which give you unlimited talk/text and 500 Mb data for that amount. As long as your talk is under 600 minutes and data under 100 Mb per month, you ...
by Browser
Fri Nov 21, 2014 2:11 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: smartphone over wifi - still possible?
Replies: 31
Views: 2363

Re: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt

Well, you know. Piling on Merriman because he "disses" VTI just adds fuel to the critics who accuse BH of being a "cult." Sometimes I wonder myself. :confused
by Browser
Fri Nov 21, 2014 2:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt
Replies: 88
Views: 8165

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

I recommend reading Dr. Sharpe's comments regarding "statistical significance" of backtested data. He illustrates by describing an experiment in which he instructs his students to generate a series of 1000 random 50-year annual runs of returns from a known distribution of stock returns set...
by Browser
Fri Nov 21, 2014 9:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 79
Views: 6185

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

Here's a question for Larry. If an investor adds QSPIX (or anything for that matter), how does he go about determining if it was beneficial or not? I suppose that after a year or so, we could compare returns and volatility to what it would have been with the original portfolio; e.g., if I replaced 5...
by Browser
Thu Nov 20, 2014 4:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 107
Views: 6701

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

Not to mention the startling research findings regarding the deleterious effects of consuming pickles. Obviously this is a bigger problem than jelly beans: 1. Nearly all sick people have eaten pickles. The effects are obviously cumulative. 2. 99.9% of all people who die from cancer have eaten pickle...
by Browser
Thu Nov 20, 2014 3:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 79
Views: 6185

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

Add the problem that it is only the studies that find positive results that get published. The other 100 that didn't never get submitted for review.
by Browser
Thu Nov 20, 2014 2:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 79
Views: 6185

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

Browser That's a very personal question with no one right answer. I would say this, with a higher equity allocation I would suggest taking from the equity side. With a very low one already and given current real bond yields, I think it's fine to take a small allocation from the bond side. And of co...
by Browser
Thu Nov 20, 2014 11:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 107
Views: 6701

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

Nisiprius It was for me anyway until the fund became available and it was way for me to diversify the sources of returns in the portfolio which IMO is a very good idea in general. In my case I used it lowering my bond allocation a bit, given the extremely low expected real returns---but not wanting...
by Browser
Thu Nov 20, 2014 11:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 107
Views: 6701

Re: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt

The only solution is for Taylor to challenge Merriman to a dual at sunrise, somewhere near the OK Corral. :annoyed
by Browser
Thu Nov 20, 2014 9:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt
Replies: 88
Views: 8165

Re: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt

Why anybody thinks that owning a piece of virtually every stock in the investment universe eludes me. This is not a strategy -- it is the total absence of a strategy. Forgive me JB.
by Browser
Wed Nov 19, 2014 8:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt
Replies: 88
Views: 8165

Re: Glidepath (target date) investments distort asset alloca

Glidepath (target date investing) is a triumph of marketing over substance. What are the purported benefits of this strategy and do any data exist in the universe to document those benefits? Never have so many people invested so much money in a strategy concept with no demonstrable value. Please dir...
by Browser
Wed Nov 19, 2014 8:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Glidepath (target date) investments distort asset allocation
Replies: 20
Views: 2787

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

I just now successfully placed an order for $2500 of QSPIX in a taxable account at Fidelity. There was a warning about the 49.95 fee and other that required I read and sign a special notice indicating that I am a sophisticated investor, understand the risks, etc. Thanks. Good to know the minimum is...
by Browser
Wed Nov 19, 2014 1:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 107
Views: 6701

Re: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt

I don't read it as just a pitch for DFA, as much as an argument for slice and dice. He makes some good points about that I think. If you want to do that, maybe Vanguard isn't the best place to look for advice.
by Browser
Wed Nov 19, 2014 1:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt
Replies: 88
Views: 8165

Re: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt

He doesn't much like target date funds either, which I heartily agree with. For example, he points out that the 2060 TDF has 10% bonds, which he thinks is useless. It won't provide much protection in a bear market, but it will reduce the long term returns for young investors. Correct and correct.
by Browser
Wed Nov 19, 2014 12:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt
Replies: 88
Views: 8165

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

Following the rule to not invest in anything you don't understand would exclude this investment for virtually all of us. The behavioral risk you are taking on is your response if (when) this thing blows up. If a good old stock index fund blows up, at least you understand that and should have known t...
by Browser
Wed Nov 19, 2014 11:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 107
Views: 6701

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

I was wondering what I'd do with that $100K I had lying around. :wink:
by Browser
Wed Nov 19, 2014 10:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 107
Views: 6701

Re: Got a new chip & signature cc from USbank: what's the di

If you use a merchant that has a chip reader you will likely be required to use it and not be able swipe it. Doesn't really offer any increased security does it? What's the difference whether I swipe it or use a chip reader? This seems like a nothing-burger to me. - Communication between the chip a...
by Browser
Wed Nov 19, 2014 12:01 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Got a new chip & signature cc from USbank: what's the diff?
Replies: 11
Views: 1089

Re: Ray Dalio's All-Weather Portfolio

Hi, Thought I’d share this with you guys as I look forward to Tony Robbin’s new financial book and interview with Bogle. Just read the below article and was surprised to see Dalio recommend 65% Fixed Income allocation in his All Weather Portfolio and the article claims an annual net 10% return over...
by Browser
Tue Nov 18, 2014 6:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ray Dalio's All-Weather Portfolio
Replies: 14
Views: 2397

Re: Got a new chip & signature cc from USbank: what's the di

placeholder wrote:If you use a merchant that has a chip reader you will likely be required to use it and not be able swipe it.

Doesn't really offer any increased security does it? What's the difference whether I swipe it or use a chip reader? This seems like a nothing-burger to me.
by Browser
Tue Nov 18, 2014 2:37 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Got a new chip & signature cc from USbank: what's the diff?
Replies: 11
Views: 1089

Got a new chip & signature cc from USbank: what's the diff?

Just had my visa card from USBank replaced with one that has a chip, and also a magnetic strip. Nothing has changed. I still use it with the magnetic strip readers at merchants just like the previous card. Is this just a cosmetic change? What the heck is different about this card -- looks like the t...
by Browser
Tue Nov 18, 2014 2:16 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Got a new chip & signature cc from USbank: what's the diff?
Replies: 11
Views: 1089

Re: Jack Bogle: expect 7% annualized for the foreseeable fut

Since nobody can predict where the yields on cash (T-bills) are going from here, and since the historical range of the 20-year average of real T-bill yields has bounced around between -1% and 2%, there's quite a range of possibilities for stock returns going forward. To put it in perspective, if equ...
by Browser
Tue Nov 18, 2014 12:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle: expect 7% annualized for the foreseeable future
Replies: 42
Views: 6037

Re: Consider freezing your credit

I'm concerned about fraud ramping up during the Holiday season, and the frequent credit card breaches that have been occuring to me, so finally motivated to take this step. As has been pointed out freezing credit does nothing about security breaches or protect existing cards or accounts in any fash...
by Browser
Tue Nov 18, 2014 11:50 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Consider freezing your credit
Replies: 45
Views: 3617

Re: Jack Bogle: expect 7% annualized for the foreseeable fut

Let's check back in 10 years. Pays to remember that "nobody knows nothing." Jack's predictions aren't worth any more than anybody else's and nobody is ever right predicting stock market returns. More investment porn...
by Browser
Tue Nov 18, 2014 10:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle: expect 7% annualized for the foreseeable future
Replies: 42
Views: 6037

Re: Consider freezing your credit

My state is Arizona - $5 each to activate the credit freeze. No big woop to do that at all, so why mess around with a "fraud alert." I'd rather prevent the fraud rather than be alerted after-the-fact.
by Browser
Tue Nov 18, 2014 10:54 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Consider freezing your credit
Replies: 45
Views: 3617

Re: Consider freezing your credit

Just put a freeze on the three credit reporting agencies online. Took 30-45 minutes and not difficult to do. I'm concerned about fraud ramping up during the Holiday season, and the frequent credit card breaches that have been occuring to me, so finally motivated to take this step. Feeling better alr...
by Browser
Tue Nov 18, 2014 10:36 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Consider freezing your credit
Replies: 45
Views: 3617

Re: Additional Betas: Defining and implementing

I like this quote: Indeed, our current view around here is that there’s no magic in Smart Beta or equal-weighted indices. You’re simply taking on more risk for hopefully more reward, and in most cases you’ll also face a headwind of higher costs for doing so http://monevator.com/video-market-cap-trac...
by Browser
Tue Nov 18, 2014 9:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Additional Betas: Defining and implementing
Replies: 6
Views: 607
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