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Re: Swedroe - Tilt & Biotech

You might find this Wikipedia article to be informative: Airline bankruptcies in the United States with respect to the first two stocks you mention. The second pair of stocks would have had to do really well to make up for the first two getting wiped out! After a 33 year career in the airline indus...
by Bradley
Fri Jan 10, 2014 9:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe - Tilt & Biotech
Replies: 19
Views: 1861

Re: Swedroe - Tilt & Biotech

jjbiv wrote:


Why only look at the last 5 years? Why not look at all available information?



I took the data from M*. The M* data for UAL and DAL only goes back 5 years.
by Bradley
Fri Jan 10, 2014 8:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe - Tilt & Biotech
Replies: 19
Views: 1861

Re: Swedroe - Tilt & Biotech

larryswedroe wrote: Best example is clearly society has reaped huge benefits from airplanes but investors in airlines have been skunked

Larry


[Comments removed by admin LadyGeek]
by Bradley
Fri Jan 10, 2014 8:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe - Tilt & Biotech
Replies: 19
Views: 1861

Calling all Geeks

In a thread titled, article on DFA funds + Fama French interview the OP posted a link to a article from Barrons online. You could not access that full article without a subscription from that link. I then googled the title of the article “ A Different Dimension ” and was given full access to the art...
by Bradley
Wed Jan 08, 2014 12:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Calling all Geeks
Replies: 6
Views: 878

Re: article on DFA funds + Farma French interview

BTW, the Barrons articles now require a login (subscription) to view. Try this, http://lmgtfy.com/?q=a+different+dimension I don't know why this works but I have found that articles are often available without subscription simply by Googling the title. Both of the referenced articles are available ...
by Bradley
Mon Jan 06, 2014 11:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: article on DFA funds + Fama French interview
Replies: 11
Views: 1202

Re: article on DFA funds + Farma French interview

............ DFA's co-CEO acknowledged the possibility of some sort of liquidity event in the article linked here, and Bill Bernstein also alluded to it in remarks at the most recent Bogleheads convention. Any scenario where DFA management needs to satisfy a new financial services indusry owner or ...
by Bradley
Mon Jan 06, 2014 8:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: article on DFA funds + Fama French interview
Replies: 11
Views: 1202

Re: 10 Reasons to take your pension annuity over a lump sum

We took the lump sum pension a couple weeks ago and plan to invest it in Stable Value. We did it for two reasons, inflation risk and desire to pass on residual to heirs. There are many reason to take a lump sum. The desire to pass on residual to heirs was among the most important to me. I took both...
by Bradley
Sat Jan 04, 2014 2:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 10 Reasons to take your pension annuity over a lump sum
Replies: 34
Views: 6185

Re: ? for Rick Ferri et al

Separate 5%......................Below is a reference for his 50/50 portfolio published in the WSJ a few years back.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1 ... %3Darticle
by Bradley
Tue Dec 31, 2013 8:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ? for Rick Ferri et al
Replies: 1
Views: 705

Re: Commodities Funds: A Decade of Disaster

TIPS have returned around -7% this year, but no one says that that is a "disaster". TIPS simply did what they were supposed to do in the face of rising real interest rates. John, Even when compared to worst performing asset class many of us hold (TIPS) this year, it has outperformed PCRIX...
by Bradley
Sun Dec 29, 2013 2:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities Funds: A Decade of Disaster
Replies: 196
Views: 14571

Re: The Case for High Yield Bonds

I think Rick Ferri argues for a certain allocation to HY bonds on grounds of optimizing the portfolio through "diversification." Larry Swedroe, if I am correct, does not feel the risk/reward proposition justifies junk bonds. YEAR-----TIPS---TBM--VWEAX 2002-----16.6%---8.3%------1.78% 2003...
by Bradley
Sun Dec 29, 2013 2:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The Case for High Yield Bonds
Replies: 24
Views: 2090

Re: Commodities Funds: A Decade of Disaster

1) There was NOT a "Decade of Disaster", but rather a "2.5-Year Disaster"; 2) The disaster has been over for almost 3 years. We have many choices to make when constructing a portfolio. The objective in most cases is to have additions to portfolio add value. If we consider the ch...
by Bradley
Sun Dec 29, 2013 1:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities Funds: A Decade of Disaster
Replies: 196
Views: 14571

Re: Commodities Funds: A Decade of Disaster

Had CCFs behaved as they were "supposed" to, they would have both improved returns and reduced volatility in a portfolio that replaced stocks with CCFs 1:1. Are you referring to the way the historical indexes performed vs live funds and before "dumb money" when you say "sup...
by Bradley
Sat Dec 28, 2013 11:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities Funds: A Decade of Disaster
Replies: 196
Views: 14571

Re: Commodities Funds: A Decade of Disaster

................ Can someone please provide a legend- what is represented by the X-axis, Y-axis? Is it returns, standard deviation, or something else? ..................... Does "3 thick stubs" mean that it's an arrow pointing to the upper curve? Basic questions, but labeling is important...
by Bradley
Sat Dec 28, 2013 10:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities Funds: A Decade of Disaster
Replies: 196
Views: 14571

Re: Putting together my annual list of sure things

Mark Faber, publisher of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report and his 2014 predictions 1. The market will continue to decline from its November high of 1,813 2. Best shorts for 2014: Facebook, Tesla, Twitter, Netflix, and Veeva Systems 3. Best longs for 2014: Gold, gold shares, and Vietnamese stocks
by Bradley
Thu Dec 26, 2013 6:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Putting together my annual list of sure things
Replies: 25
Views: 2571

Commodities Funds: A Decade of Disaster

............. over the past decade the inclusion of CCFs has not been a portfolio disaster, John, It would be a mistake to conclude that CCf’s, represented in this discussion by PCRIX, has not been a disaster over the past decade based on the referenced example you cite. Let’s start with some indis...
by Bradley
Wed Dec 25, 2013 8:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities Funds: A Decade of Disaster
Replies: 196
Views: 14571

Re: Commodities Funds: A Decade of Disaster

Most of the data posted to support CCFs used backtested indexed data rather than live funds. In addition much of the data was pre “dumb money” ( large amounts of $ pouring in ). Bad data leads to poor conclusions. Bill has shown the effect of adding an actual operating fund, PCRIX to a diversified p...
by Bradley
Mon Dec 23, 2013 10:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities Funds: A Decade of Disaster
Replies: 196
Views: 14571

Re: Commodities Funds: A Decade of Disaster

Growth of $10k over the last 10 years - $22k - Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTSAX) - $14k - PCRIX That's an $8k loss per $10k invested in PCRIX. Growth of $10k since PCRIX inception - $25k - Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTSAX) - $22k - PCRIX That's a $3k loss per $10k invested for holding PCRIX. Ji...
by Bradley
Sun Dec 22, 2013 1:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities Funds: A Decade of Disaster
Replies: 196
Views: 14571

Re: Commodities Funds: A Decade of Disaster

Dr. Bernstein, ................ All of these funds are CCF and are thus based on the futures market with returns based on: Spot+ roll return+ tbills (or TIPS). We already know looking at historically spot and tbills will, basically, follow inflation. The return then on CCF funds are COMPLETLEY base...
by Bradley
Sun Dec 22, 2013 8:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities Funds: A Decade of Disaster
Replies: 196
Views: 14571

Re: Commodities Funds: A Decade of Disaster

Below is from M* on PCRIX “ ...............the bulk of the fund's year-to-date underperformance came in May and June as real interest rates spiked across the yield curve on the heels of the Fed's announcement that it may start tapering quantitative easing earlier than anticipated. The fund's out-of-...
by Bradley
Sat Dec 21, 2013 4:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities Funds: A Decade of Disaster
Replies: 196
Views: 14571

Re: PenFed 5/5 ARM (people who have used this, or similar AR

Is my understanding right here. If I lock in at 2.75% with this, the following are the interest rates: 1 to 60 months: 2.75% 61 to 120: 4.75% 121 to 180: 6.75% 181 to 360: 7.75% The interest rate is variable and depends on what the index does and may not follow the rates above. What you posted are ...
by Bradley
Fri Dec 20, 2013 4:48 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: PenFed 5/5 ARM (people who have used this, or similar ARMs)
Replies: 20
Views: 2053

Re: Refinancing with 5/5 ARM

one of the things that I never felt felt real comfortable about with that loan is that they are vague about what the base rate is that they will use for the determing what the rate will be when it resets. As I recall is was call something like "the current index rate" in the paperwork. Th...
by Bradley
Wed Dec 18, 2013 6:04 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refinancing with 5/5 ARM
Replies: 2
Views: 312

Re: Alternative Investments to Avoid

heyyou wrote:Others would be interested in learning what investment areas that you specifically avoid.



Equity Indexed Annuities, anything with the word leveraged in it, Variable annuities, loaded funds, commodities, preferred stock.



REITS and TIPS are my favorite alternatives.
by Bradley
Mon Dec 16, 2013 4:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alternative Investments to Avoid
Replies: 34
Views: 2256

Re: RTP, NC Chapter Meeting Noon Sat December 14, 2013

Steve Thorpe wrote:Bill, you were great - thanks so much!





+1



Steve,
Great venue, awesome speaker. Thanks for your time and efforts in putting together such a great program.
by Bradley
Sun Dec 15, 2013 7:07 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: RTP, NC Chapter Meeting Noon Sat December 14, 2013
Replies: 10
Views: 3665

Re: BRSIX Question

What's Rick have against BRSIX now? I must have missed that conversation. Doc, Below are two posts from Rick which may help explain his thoughts. BTW, you were a contributor earlier in that conversation. Re: The annual Bridgeway microcap thread: BRSIX by Rick Ferri » Wed May 30, 2012 12:30 pm I no ...
by Bradley
Fri Nov 15, 2013 10:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: BRSIX Question
Replies: 12
Views: 1472

Re: How many funds do you have in your portfolio?

10 Funds........20% in DFA..........80% in Vanguard

VTI
DFSVX
DISVX
DFCEX
VNQ
VGK
VPL

VWEAX
VIPSX
VBTSX
by Bradley
Mon Nov 11, 2013 6:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many funds do you have in your portfolio?
Replies: 96
Views: 6329

Re: John Bogle's "Philosophical Disagreement" with Eugene Fa

The following reference is an interview with Gene Fama of market efficiency which should clear up some misconceptions. Many journalists, commentators and talking heads seem to think the hypothesis claims the prices are always “correct” and forward looking. They point to bubbles/volatility in their f...
by Bradley
Sat Nov 09, 2013 4:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle's "Philosophical Disagreement" with Eugene Fama
Replies: 87
Views: 6112

Re: "There is a rebalancing bonus ... false"

The most comprehensive and educational discussions on rebalancing were posted by Gummy on his website. One such discussion which discusses Bernstein's Rebalancing opinion can be found here: http://www.gummy-stuff.org/rebalancing-bonus.htm
by Bradley
Wed Nov 06, 2013 8:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "There is a rebalancing bonus ... false"
Replies: 188
Views: 14238

Re: DFA - Where's the alpha?

Those are the correct figure through 9/30/2013. Bridgeway has listed two different inception dates for the two different references?
by Bradley
Wed Nov 06, 2013 3:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA - Where's the alpha?
Replies: 96
Views: 9671

Re: A tale of two woes - commodities and gold

Angst wrote: If you drop the last two years from the entire history, all the above quoted numbers change significantly.


This is very true but others might say that would be cherry picking. :D
by Bradley
Mon Nov 04, 2013 7:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A tale of two woes - commodities and gold
Replies: 95
Views: 5246

Re: A tale of two woes - commodities and gold

Yes cherry-picked. Just about the worst example of a cherry picked time frame I've seen on this forum. Shameless, because you've been called on it before and you still bust it out, copy/pasted verbatim from past threads. As I showed, add one more year to your cherry picked 10 years and the entire o...
by Bradley
Mon Nov 04, 2013 2:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A tale of two woes - commodities and gold
Replies: 95
Views: 5246

Re: A tale of two woes - commodities and gold

Shameless, Bradley. In every CCF thread, Bradley trots out his cherry-picked PCRIX 10-year returns. Cheery picked? It is the current standard 10 year data compiled by M* Including data prior to 2007 when new management took over is of little use IMO. Different manager, different strategies and diff...
by Bradley
Sun Nov 03, 2013 5:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A tale of two woes - commodities and gold
Replies: 95
Views: 5246

Re: A tale of two woes - commodities and gold

Every now and then, when this topic shows up it is informative to show actual live fund results so members can have an idea how much they are paying for tsunami insurance in Kansas. The interest in the relatively new product, commodity CCFs, has worn thin to the point that over the past 10 years the...
by Bradley
Sun Nov 03, 2013 3:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A tale of two woes - commodities and gold
Replies: 95
Views: 5246

Re: A tale of two woes - commodities and gold

Let’s try comparing the CCF “ insurance ” logic to a homeowners policy. Normally a policy would cover fire, theft, hail, wind damage.................etc. Using CCF logic your homeowners insurance would only cover hail damage occurring on Mondays which happen to fall on even days of the month betwee...
by Bradley
Sat Nov 02, 2013 1:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A tale of two woes - commodities and gold
Replies: 95
Views: 5246

Re: A tale of two woes - commodities and gold

Some insurance is just too expensive to be worth having . It looks to me like gold and commodity futures insurance may be one of those. Over the long run (10+ years), the drag on portfolio returns from either of these overwhelms any benefit in terms of moderating short-term volatility spikes. I agr...
by Bradley
Sat Nov 02, 2013 11:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A tale of two woes - commodities and gold
Replies: 95
Views: 5246

Re: DFA - Where's the alpha?

I don't believe anyone has disputed the benefits of DFA’s core funds only the idea that they have significant advantage or certain advantage over separate non core holdings which are rebalanced according to an individual IPS. The random nature of returns, correlation and RTM can and do allow for out...
by Bradley
Fri Nov 01, 2013 10:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA - Where's the alpha?
Replies: 96
Views: 9671

Re: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your ag

65 years old and 70% equity in investment portfolios.

Equity in, and Income from commercial real estate and profit sharing from passive ownership in a business makes this an appropriate allocation for me and my family.
by Bradley
Thu Oct 31, 2013 8:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: How conservative/aggressive is your AA for your age?
Replies: 106
Views: 7050

Re: DFA - Where's the alpha?

Jeb but when SV outperforms TSM as it does most years you have to sell SV to buy TSM while the core fund doesn't. That can be over time significant advantage. Larry The advantage could go either way depending on the rebalancing method/time and the random nature returns. If you have to rebalance eve...
by Bradley
Thu Oct 31, 2013 6:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA - Where's the alpha?
Replies: 96
Views: 9671

Re: DFA - Where's the alpha?

This seems to suggest, there is no measurable benefit to DFA funds beyond factor loads? This could very well be the case. The vast majority of my portfolio is in Vanguard funds but I have owned DFCEX (DFA”S emerging market fund) and DISVX (Int’l SmCap Value) since 2006 and they are by far the most ...
by Bradley
Wed Oct 30, 2013 9:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA - Where's the alpha?
Replies: 96
Views: 9671

Re: Investing in a lump sum pension payout.

I am 55 and getting ready to retire. I am going to elect a lump sum payout of my pension. What is my best avenue for investing it, once I have rolled it into a IRA. Is it wise to invest all of it in Index Funds? Yes! I would however suggest you read The Power Of Passive Investing to help you unders...
by Bradley
Wed Oct 30, 2013 3:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in a lump sum pension payout.
Replies: 11
Views: 658

Re: Post your Morningstar X-Ray

You may get more responses if you post a how to guide for us computer challenged geezers. :happy
by Bradley
Tue Oct 29, 2013 5:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Post your Morningstar X-Ray [Portfolio analysis]
Replies: 10
Views: 1235

Re: Talk me out of a commodity futures allocation

Back to the thread topic. Investing is all about probabilities not possibilities. Why not play the odds? Below are the conclusions and reference for a study DFA shared with other professionals in December of 2004. The research was conducted by Truman Clark a 1963 graduate of Princeton who earned his...
by Bradley
Mon Oct 28, 2013 11:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Talk me out of a commodity futures allocation
Replies: 80
Views: 5237

Re: Talk me out of a commodity futures allocation

Do not be fooled, rebalancing does not always improve returns, in fact it may hurt returns. That rebalancing always improves returns is mathematically true . Yes, some people misunderstand it, but what you are saying here is just not correct. Can you quote anyplace in that paper or any other inform...
by Bradley
Mon Oct 28, 2013 10:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Talk me out of a commodity futures allocation
Replies: 80
Views: 5237

Re: Talk me out of a commodity futures allocation

If someone were interested in adding Collaterized Commodity Futures to their portfolio, what vehicles are available to the individual investor? What percentage of a portfolio should be in a CCF fund? Just curious. Thank you. You may find this site helpful if you decide to add CCFs http://www.altrui...
by Bradley
Sun Oct 27, 2013 12:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Talk me out of a commodity futures allocation
Replies: 80
Views: 5237

Re: Talk me out of a commodity futures allocation

Do not be fooled, rebalancing does not always improve returns, in fact it may hurt returns. That rebalancing always improves returns is mathematically true . Yes, some people misunderstand it , but what you are saying here is just not correct. Akiva, Please refer to the earlier posted reference I p...
by Bradley
Sun Oct 27, 2013 11:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Talk me out of a commodity futures allocation
Replies: 80
Views: 5237

Re: Talk me out of a commodity futures allocation

I choose to use the total market vs the less diversified S&P to better reflect how informed investors actually invest. Few true Bogleheads use S&P as their core equity holding compared to TM. Using the most recent 10 year data better reflects the more efficient CCF market place, the realitie...
by Bradley
Sat Oct 26, 2013 7:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Talk me out of a commodity futures allocation
Replies: 80
Views: 5237

Re: Talk me out of a commodity futures allocation

Let’s try another set of data points which may be helpful in deciding to add or forgo CCFs. Without cherry picking funds or time frames lets look at the two previously and widely used funds, PCRIX and VTSAX, both investable and using up to date data. The growth of $10,000 over the past 10 years for ...
by Bradley
Sat Oct 26, 2013 4:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Talk me out of a commodity futures allocation
Replies: 80
Views: 5237

Re: Talk me out of a commodity futures allocation

Nice bait and switch. You point at the returns of a CCF fund in isolation, then say that people should imagine the effects of its addition to a portfolio. Well, Larry has a lot of posts demonstrating that adding CCFs has improved the performance of a portfolio. No need to imagine. It's a good thing...
by Bradley
Sat Oct 26, 2013 1:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Talk me out of a commodity futures allocation
Replies: 80
Views: 5237

Re: Talk me out of a commodity futures allocation

Making investment decisions based on theory, non investable index results, and hand picked time periods may lead to less than desired results. Counting on the benefits of MPT to overcome an investment product with miserable real world performance results has proved challenging. Using VTSAX as our to...
by Bradley
Sat Oct 26, 2013 11:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Talk me out of a commodity futures allocation
Replies: 80
Views: 5237

Re: [My Fee Only Planner's] Fees are going up!

Great first post Steve. :beer

For the OP..........The referenced site is a little dated but provides a good starting point to consider if changing advisor is in your future. Just scroll down to Table four.

http://retireearlyhomepage.com/dfa_2010.html
by Bradley
Wed Oct 23, 2013 8:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [My Fee Only Planner's] Fees are going up!
Replies: 56
Views: 6186

Re: DCA on Down Days?

The correct time to invest is when you have the funds to invest.
by Bradley
Wed Oct 23, 2013 4:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: DCA on Down Days?
Replies: 27
Views: 1817
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