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by BlueEars
Wed May 13, 2015 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 548
Views: 152511

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

longinvest wrote:I don't possess a Microsoft Office license; that's why I can't do it.
Sorry, should have figured that was the issue. Thanks again for VPW!
by BlueEars
Tue May 12, 2015 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 548
Views: 152511

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

I develop the VPW spreadsheet using the open-source LibreOffice Calc software. Microsoft Excel doesn't like that the spreadsheet was not generated using itself, so it complains, but it can open the file. The warning is scary, though; it gives the impression that someone is trying to corrupt your co...
by BlueEars
Tue May 12, 2015 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 548
Views: 152511

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Security error in downloading VPW spreadsheet? I get the following error message when downloading the VPW spreadsheet from either the googledocs or dropbox locations: "Security Error - Office File Validation WARNING: Office File Validation detected a problem while trying to open this file. Ope...
by BlueEars
Tue Apr 07, 2015 9:21 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Finding a Good Physical Therapist
Replies: 7
Views: 861

Re: Finding a Good Physical Therapist

Our doc is pretty good at sports injuries. He would be a good source for a PT referral. You might try to find a doc specializing in sports injuries and ask for a PT recommendation. I know this is a bit of a circuitous route.
by BlueEars
Sun Mar 29, 2015 5:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Guyton-Klinger Withdrawal Decison Rules
Replies: 131
Views: 11389

Re: Guyton-Klinger Withdrawal Decison Rules

The 1968 sequence has factors that would impact a severe bear if similar market forces went to work today. In 1968 the S&P was yielding dividends slightly over 4.1% and the Treasury 10 year was about 5.5%. Lately you are closer to 1.8% on the S&P and under 2% on the 10 year. That would seem...
by BlueEars
Sat Mar 28, 2015 7:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Guyton-Klinger Withdrawal Decison Rules
Replies: 131
Views: 11389

Re: Guyton-Klinger Withdrawal Decison Rules

... B. I played multiple times in the past with the final value of the PMT formula (VPW forces it to zero, but one could use an inflation-adjusted bequest target). For sure, one can do that (see scenarios 9f/9f1/9f2, I use an inflation-adjusted % of the initial portfolio as final value), and concep...
by BlueEars
Mon Mar 23, 2015 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Foreign stocks/bonds may be less beneficial for retirees
Replies: 26
Views: 2472

Re: Foreign stocks/bonds may be less beneficial for retirees

... Obviously, there has been a wide range of outcomes for retirees from international diversification. Couple of takeaways: when you are taking money out of your portfolio instead of putting it in, over a relatively short time horizon of 20-25 years, you have to plan based on worse-case scenarios,...
by BlueEars
Mon Mar 23, 2015 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Foreign stocks/bonds may be less beneficial for retirees
Replies: 26
Views: 2472

Re: Foreign stocks/bonds may be less beneficial for retirees

...(snip)... On the face of it, did adding international reduce volatility? No, it did not , not over the last five years anyway. Did it increase it by enough to care about? Not in my opinion. In 2008-2009, from inception of Total World to the bottom, it fell 48.9% while Total Stock fell "only...
by BlueEars
Sun Mar 08, 2015 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Vanguard Momentum Trading Blog
Replies: 23
Views: 2510

Re: My Vanguard Momentum Trading Blog

Are you planning on discussing your backtest results? I imagine you could get at least 20 years of data for most of your choices. I used this strategy a short while back. I had to calculate the average each month by inputting returns. Frankly, I got real busy and didn't have time to keep the "...
by BlueEars
Sun Mar 08, 2015 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Vanguard Momentum Trading Blog
Replies: 23
Views: 2510

Re: My Vanguard Momentum Trading Blog

Are you planning on discussing your backtest results? I imagine you could get at least 20 years of data for most of your choices.
by BlueEars
Fri Feb 20, 2015 5:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What language do EU partners use to communicate?
Replies: 12
Views: 1107

Re: What language do EU partners use to communicate?

Thanks for the replies so far. It may be an odd question to some but we rarely hear leaders actually talking to one another. What really made me wonder was a news photo of the German finance minister Schaeuble pointing as he (apparently) addressed the Greek finance minister Varoufakis. Was he speaki...
by BlueEars
Fri Feb 20, 2015 2:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What language do EU partners use to communicate?
Replies: 12
Views: 1107

What language do EU partners use to communicate?

I see the German finance minister in talks with the Greek finance minister. Am wondering what language they use to communicate? Is it English? How are these things handled in informal meetings and is it different in formal meetings? Also how do they do things in Brussels? Is everyone expected to be ...
by BlueEars
Mon Feb 02, 2015 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller: "Become a smart beta person"
Replies: 20
Views: 2747

Re: Shiller: "Become a smart beta person"

What is missing here is a discussion of what might happen should Greece exit the Euro currency. Who knows what these stock and bond assets might be priced at if they are in a new Drachma? There is definitely a growing chance (low probability event getting higher) of Greece exiting the EU and the new...
by BlueEars
Fri Jan 23, 2015 8:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Google Chrome: is this a mega security problem?
Replies: 111
Views: 7088

Re: Google Chrome: is this a mega security problem?

Browser, I found this link to the various ways Google does 2FA: https://www.google.com/landing/2step/features.html
by BlueEars
Fri Jan 23, 2015 6:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Google Chrome: is this a mega security problem?
Replies: 111
Views: 7088

Re: Google Chrome: is this a mega security problem?

Sounds like a similar way as I do 2FA with Vanguard. That would work for me.
by BlueEars
Fri Jan 23, 2015 6:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Google Chrome: is this a mega security problem?
Replies: 111
Views: 7088

Re: Google Chrome: is this a mega security problem?

... All they need is your GMail password . If someone is able to hack your password, they have complete access to your browser and can, for example, install new extensions. What is to stop this person from installing a malicious extension, such as a keylogger, into your Chrome browser? ... I'm a bi...
by BlueEars
Fri Jan 23, 2015 5:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Google Chrome: is this a mega security problem?
Replies: 111
Views: 7088

Re: Google Chrome: is this a mega security problem?

... All they need is your GMail password . If someone is able to hack your password, they have complete access to your browser and can, for example, install new extensions. What is to stop this person from installing a malicious extension, such as a keylogger, into your Chrome browser? ... I'm a bi...
by BlueEars
Thu Jan 22, 2015 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 548
Views: 152511

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

... Furthermore, just targeting an older last-withrawal age achieves the objective of leaving a significant bequest in a very effective way. As an example, a retiree who targets a last withdrawal at age 119 but dies at age 80 or even 90 will leave a significant bequest. If he does get to live to 11...
by BlueEars
Tue Jan 20, 2015 6:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Google Chrome: is this a mega security problem?
Replies: 111
Views: 7088

Re: Google Chrome: is this a mega security problem?

Questions on using 2 factor authentication with Chrome and Google: suppose I'm in Europe and my smartphone has no service contract there. Am I setting myself up for problems with 2FA? Or should I perhaps turn off 2FA when going to Europe? It seems the 2FA assumes the phone connection will always be ...
by BlueEars
Mon Jan 19, 2015 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to get things wrong - Swiss Franc (CHF)
Replies: 32
Views: 3634

Re: How to get things wrong - Swiss Franc (CHF)

I'm fascinated by market pricing behaviors and have done a fair amount of study there. I try to stay away from the sort of risk that is narrowly focused as do most investors on this site. This is one market event that was very sudden with no advanced warning in the pricing behavior . Apparently it c...
by BlueEars
Sat Jan 17, 2015 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is $50 oil really the norm?
Replies: 41
Views: 3632

Re: Is $50 oil really the norm?

The article in the OP did not have a graph of the price history. I looked up the Fed data and found this for 1946 to 2013 which certainly is not a nicely behaved sloping line: http://i62.tinypic.com/2q1592o.jpg Here is the log plot of that data: http://i59.tinypic.com/2quqkq1.jpg If I use the price ...
by BlueEars
Sat Jan 17, 2015 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tilting to Corp. Bonds
Replies: 36
Views: 3083

Re: Tilting to Corp. Bonds

midareff wrote:...
Of course there is... VFIDX 5.3 years duration, expense .10%

Unfortunately the Yahoo data only goes back to 1980 which meets a lot of purposes. For data analysis, I'm interested in rising rate period of 1954 to 1982 (especially 1954 - 1977 or so).
by BlueEars
Sat Jan 17, 2015 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tilting to Corp. Bonds
Replies: 36
Views: 3083

Re: Tilting to Corp. Bonds

BTW, is there a nice source for intermediate corporate bonds, i.e. around 5 years? A few: VICSX,VCIT,VFIDX,VFICX,VBILX,BIV,CIU,ITR ... :D It's a bit OT, but I was hoping that there would be a long running source of monthly data similar to the Fed corporate data but with intermediate corporate bonds...
by BlueEars
Sat Jan 17, 2015 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tilting to Corp. Bonds
Replies: 36
Views: 3083

Re: Tilting to Corp. Bonds

Doc, I was thinking of maybe a combo of these since there are gaps in both series:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GS30
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GS20

Using these would the spread graph above give the same conclusions or a different view?
by BlueEars
Sat Jan 17, 2015 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is $50 oil really the norm?
Replies: 41
Views: 3632

Is $50 oil really the norm?

This short article says that oil's long term average is $50: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-16/welcome-to-normal-crude-oil-price-trading-at-100-year-average.html Many people think the oil price has crashed, but it has just gone back to its long-term historical trend, according to Ruchir Sharm...
by BlueEars
Sat Jan 17, 2015 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tilting to Corp. Bonds
Replies: 36
Views: 3083

Re: Tilting to Corp. Bonds

... The spread went way up during the recession but then leveled out for the next five yeas at ~ 4% with corporate yields deceasing along with Treasuries. In the last year we have seen the yields stopped in their tracking with Treasuries moving up and corporates down (sort of) which dropped the spr...
by BlueEars
Thu Jan 15, 2015 3:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anybody use Google Hangouts on cellphone to make WiFi calls?
Replies: 18
Views: 2359

Re: Anybody use Google Hangouts on cellphone to make WiFi ca

I installed Lollipop on our Nexus 5 phone and Nexus 7 tablet. I don't use the phone much but it seems to work fine when I do. The tablet I use a lot and it's worked well. With 5.0 the tablet got a better word completion algorithm, maybe like the Nexus 5 already had. I had to reboot the tablet at fir...
by BlueEars
Wed Jan 14, 2015 10:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anybody use Google Hangouts on cellphone to make WiFi calls?
Replies: 18
Views: 2359

Re: Anybody use Google Hangouts on cellphone to make WiFi ca

Speaking softly, it would be handy to be able to call back to the US from a foreign Hotel lobby or other available Wi-Fi. That works? I can confirm works fine from Europe. I've used it for long (>1hr) calls without problems. Both receiving and outgoing worked fine, though for receiving, if your hot...
by BlueEars
Thu Jan 01, 2015 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strong dollar effect and currency exposure
Replies: 6
Views: 838

Re: Strong dollar effect and currency exposure

Now plot the dollar on the same axis as the others, and see how big those "spikes" look. Well that is embarrassing :oops: . Good observation. I've looked at that chart so often that I became blind to the obvious. When I plot the dollar (right scale) with a 2 orders of magnitude scale, the...
by BlueEars
Thu Jan 01, 2015 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If no capital gains tax, will you change investing?
Replies: 12
Views: 1145

Re: [Poll] If no capital gains tax, will you change investin

I don't have tax consequences with my holdings. Transaction costs are minimal, just bid-ask spreads.

I can say confidently that tax consequences have had a major impact on my investment strategy. I was quite a different investor before tax consequences went away.
by BlueEars
Thu Jan 01, 2015 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strong dollar effect and currency exposure
Replies: 6
Views: 838

Re: Strong dollar effect and currency exposure

That was interesting data Robert, and in a miserable international stock performance year it will hit home with most of us. . ... Over the 1969-2014, and 2000-2014 periods, as stock return volatility dominated currency volatility and the correlation between two was fairly lower, there was a diversif...
by BlueEars
Sun Dec 28, 2014 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fund inflow data, where is the enthusiam?
Replies: 2
Views: 493

Fund inflow data, where is the enthusiam?

Occasionally I update my chart of ICI fund flows. This chart seems to NOT show the enthusiasm for stocks seen in past bull markets (2000 and 2007). US stocks (blue line) are negative for cash flows, foreign stocks (red line) are positive. The y-axis is in millions of dollars. Are all these flows fro...
by BlueEars
Sat Dec 27, 2014 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retiree Poll:What is your current AA?
Replies: 85
Views: 7251

Re: Retiree Poll:What is your current AA?

Recently I've realized we are quite able to have a nice spending pattern and it was time to reduce stocks somewhat. This Vanguard chart helped out in my decision process. Note the real returns in the center of each bar: http://i59.tinypic.com/faqufr.jpg Also the stretch 1968 to 1982 was a particular...
by BlueEars
Fri Dec 26, 2014 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the yield curve steep?
Replies: 33
Views: 3486

Re: Is the yield curve steep?

.... Compared to, say, the 1950s, rates are much more volatile today than they used to be. Looking at the 5 yr Treasury plot I showed above, it looks a lot more jagged to me after 1980 then before. But then I computed the standard deviation of the monthly returns used there. Here is the data: http:...
by BlueEars
Fri Dec 26, 2014 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the yield curve steep?
Replies: 33
Views: 3486

Re: Is the yield curve steep?

From looking at Kevin's graph, if past is prologue, might one expect ST rates to rise and tend to converge with LT rates in the next couple years? And if so, one whose FI is all ST might want to extend a bit now? The current yield curve represents all the market's bets. Opinions about the future ar...
by BlueEars
Fri Dec 26, 2014 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the yield curve steep?
Replies: 33
Views: 3486

Re: Is the yield curve steep?

I just happen to have this chart as part of some analysis of a variable maturity strategy. It uses monthly data for the 1 yr and 5 yr Treasuries and perhaps shows a little more of the noise in the spread numbers. The left axis shows basis points per year (5yr - 1yr yield divided by 4) and the right ...
by BlueEars
Thu Dec 25, 2014 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the yield curve steep?
Replies: 33
Views: 3486

Re: Is the yield curve steep?

I'm not sure that this is exactly on topic. There is a well known bond approach called Variable Maturity. The post here by Jerry Lee (see about 1/3 way down) discusses a 1yr - 5yr Treasury strategy: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=103247 I've been investigating this for some...
by BlueEars
Wed Dec 24, 2014 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the yield curve steep?
Replies: 33
Views: 3486

Re: Is the yield curve steep?

This makes me wonder about the rule of thumb for extending out on the yield curve, i.e. one should get maybe 25 bp/year to extend out. Perhaps that rule should be adjusted for the absolute value of the rates? In other words if the 1yr Treasury is 0.2% we might extend out to the 5yr Treasury if it yi...
by BlueEars
Sun Dec 07, 2014 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 548
Views: 152511

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

One can get data going back to 1980 for VWINX on Yahoo here: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=VWINX+Historical+Prices
You must then convert the monthly returns to yearly.
by BlueEars
Sat Dec 06, 2014 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strong Dollar Clobbers Returns of Foreign-Stock Funds
Replies: 26
Views: 2786

Re: Strong Dollar Clobbers Returns of Foreign-Stock Funds

I realized that in the previous chart above, for my own purposes I had set the EAFE = SP500 at the May 2009 point. So I've now removed this in the chart above. Curiously, the SP500 matches the International gain after 43 years.
by BlueEars
Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strong Dollar Clobbers Returns of Foreign-Stock Funds
Replies: 26
Views: 2786

Re: Strong Dollar Clobbers Returns of Foreign-Stock Funds

nisiprius wrote:That is one beautiful chart. If you can eyeball sums and differences it is a spectacular demonstration of the degree to which differences in EAFE/US performance match up with changes in the dollar index.
I needed that Nisiprius. Thanks, you made my day. :happy
by BlueEars
Sat Dec 06, 2014 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strong Dollar Clobbers Returns of Foreign-Stock Funds
Replies: 26
Views: 2786

Re: Strong Dollar Clobbers Returns of Foreign-Stock Funds

A long term chart with EAFE being the MSCI Europe, Asia, Far East Index to Feb 2010 and after that Vanguard's VFWAX. The SP500 line includes dividends. The dollar data is a trade weighted Fed index. http://i58.tinypic.com/30wmu6c.jpg It wouldn't surprise me if the dollar kept on going up for a few y...
by BlueEars
Fri Dec 05, 2014 5:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 548
Views: 152511

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

...As an experiment, I have added a visual comparison to the popular SWR method on the backtesting charts. Personally, I feel that it makes the charts harder to understand, but maybe it is of interest to new users. What do you think? ... I wasn't sure what the "SWR withdrawal" really mean...
by BlueEars
Thu Dec 04, 2014 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: European underperformance - here to stay?
Replies: 32
Views: 2605

Re: European underperformance - here to stay?

I think this falls into the "tracking error" category. International funds will generally underperform the US during periods of dollar strength. I have index fund data going back to 1970 which clearly shows some of this. The most recent period where the US outperformed was 1995-2000 and co...
by BlueEars
Wed Dec 03, 2014 11:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: European underperformance - here to stay?
Replies: 32
Views: 2605

Re: European underperformance - here to stay?

It looks like it is not just European stocks that are weak but the Euro too. Emerging Mkts look weak as well. I don't know when this will turn around but if one's strategy is to set the AA in sub asset classes and then let it ride, either you go with it or you change the strategy. FWIW, my strategy ...
by BlueEars
Sun Nov 23, 2014 7:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bogleheads, any "Black Friday" [recommendations]
Replies: 59
Views: 6464

Re: Bogleheads, anyone doing "Black Friday"

The WSJ had an article showing the dates for the best deals. They weren't just Black Friday last year. Today at Best Buy I picked up a laptop (for a present) that went on sale. It was on sale about 3 weeks ago at the same price but then went "off sale". The retailers know this game better ...
by BlueEars
Mon Nov 17, 2014 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 548
Views: 152511

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Longinvest, I really like your VPW changes with the inflation adjusted data explicitly showing. Thanks!!
by BlueEars
Mon Nov 17, 2014 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 548
Views: 152511

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Thanks to Longinvest and LadyGeek for looking at the security issue. I'm comfortable with the situation as it stands now. I went ahead and downloaded the VPW in Office 2007. Here is my procedure if anyone is interested: 1) Clicked on the Dropbox link to VPW here as Longinvest says: http://www.bogleh...
by BlueEars
Sun Nov 16, 2014 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 548
Views: 152511

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

OK, you were right it takes a little while to complete the download. Here is the security alert message I see: http://i58.tinypic.com/2mfx35v.jpg If you think it is alright to proceed then I'll ignore the message. I don't recall seeing this sort of message before when doing downloads. But then again...
by BlueEars
Sun Nov 16, 2014 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 548
Views: 152511

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Did you download it from Google Drive or from DropBox? When I do it from Dropbox on a Win 7 PC, I get 2 files. One is zero size, the other becomes VariablePercentageWithdrawal.xls.part with 16MB. Not sure what this is doing or how to use it. I also followed the procedure for Google Drive and get an...

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