Bogleheads.org

Sure it would be interesting to consider why and when the correlations have been highest. Still there is some value to correlation being low at times, if that is the case. And yeah, a factor regression on HY would be great to see. Much better than "if you saw it, you'd think this". So muc...

I haven't seen any analysis of the 1930's scenario as it may have played out for lower rated bonds. Perhaps I've missed the data on this site? I'm guessing there was a broad default spike in bonds in the 1930's. I would think the 1930's might represent one of the worst periods for lower rated bonds ...

There are two schools of thought. Larry's school says take risk with equity and invest the rest in "safe" fixed income and leave "riskier" bonds out such as high yield and mortgages. My school is to have a total-total bond market portfolio that includes all asset classes, and th...

Offshore: Thanks for the mention of that VG paper. learning_head: FWIW I generally have a 60/40 split between US/International equities. However, right now it is all US. I really have no clue as to which way the dollar will go even in the next second, but I share your unease at about where the long ...

Positive correlation, if I understand what you did, means that as the dollar strengthens, EAFE also strengthens vs US VL? Seems backwards. I must be missing something. Why LV rather than TSM which would seem the more natural comparison? Actually you are right. I got sloppy. I've changed the chart t...

After a discussion here I began to wonder further about how much the dollar influenced the difference between an unhedged international fund and a US fund. Since I had some monthly data easily available I produced this chart showing 4 year correlations for the monthly dollar changes versus the diffe...

I have a Tracphone for cheap US calls which I rarely use. Nobody to borrow a phone from in the UK.

This is my current cheapy thought: http://www.carphonewarehouse.com/mobiles/mobile-phones/NOKIA-100/PPAY

We are going to be in the UK in May and would like to get a cheap phone for UK (England & Scotland) only calling. One cheap phone is shown here at Carphone Warehouse under Pay as You Go plans: http://www.carphonewarehouse.com/mobiles/categories/price-plans/pay-as-you-go Anybody used this or ano...

These phones may be locked to specific carriers, which means that you can't reuse them in other countries (and buying a local SIM). I recommend just buying unlocked gsm quad band phones here in the US (you can find them easily on Amazon) and then just buy pay as you (prepaid) plan SIMs in London. I...

We are going to be in the UK in May and would like to get a cheap phone for UK (England & Scotland) only calling. One cheap phone is shown here at Carphone Warehouse under Pay as You Go plans: http://www.carphonewarehouse.com/mobiles/categories/price-plans/pay-as-you-go Anybody used this or ano...

Another vote for this site: http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/ NOTE: Once I was on vacation and did not log on to my registered account. I saw an unsightly mess of advertising. This might still be the case. So register if you want to even read this site as the site will look a lot better.

We are going to be in the UK in May and would like to get a cheap phone for UK (England & Scotland) only calling. One cheap phone is shown here at Carphone Warehouse under Pay as You Go plans: http://www.carphonewarehouse.com/mobiles/categories/price-plans/pay-as-you-go Anybody used this or anot...

I don't think we should too freely waive away this stuff as just noise. Since this was fake it was truly noise but it does say something about how the system is currently developing to handle information flows. When real geopolitical events happen there is no way to know exactly where they will go. ...

FredPeterson wrote:http://www.nanex.net/aqck2/4176.html

Interesting plots on this site, thanks for the link. I'm always fascinated by how much tech has been developed to do trading even though I do not participate.

I added my MV to SV so the answer was in terms of (MV+SV)/total. Answering this way, I'm much more heavily value tilted then average.

Why leave out MV when it has pretty consistently done better then SV (MSCI index) over the last 20+ years?

I lined up 3 stock market decline periods with their peak levels. The scale is semilog to show the 1930's decline. Interestingly all those markets had similar drops at the 9 month out point.

...(snip)... So it should come as a wake up call to all bogleheads to read in the section "Fine Tuning a Bond Diversification Strategy" that the authors warn that the current scenario in bonds is very similar to that which last occurred during World War II. They explain that bondholders a...

First you diversify to international to diversify economic and geopolitical risks not as bet on weak dollar. Has nothing to do with it. Just ask Japanese investors for example who saw their currency rise dramatically while foreign stocks outperform ... I partially agree with this. Where I differ is...

Here's a chart I occasionally update of EAFE, SP500 and the dollar (trade weighted, major trading partners):



Ignore the flat dollar prior to 1973. Chart is through May 2012.

Maybe this helps a little?

Agree with Sheepdog's method mentioned above. In addition to taking before/after pictures, I would try to get a signature OK when returning the car. This helped in a dispute year's ago for supposed damages returning a rental in York, UK. A few other thoughts: 1) Agree with another poster that Auto ...

Agree with Sheepdog's method mentioned above. In addition to taking before/after pictures, I would try to get a signature OK when returning the car. This helped in a dispute year's ago for supposed damages returning a rental in York, UK. A few other thoughts: 1) Agree with another poster that Auto E...

Nobody's mentioned BOND, Pimco Total Return ETF (ER=0.55). Only out about a year:

...(snip)... The days when I could pack a lunch every day for a month rather than eating out and watching its impact on my wealth are gone. The "latte factor" is a rounding error for me. I know this is a total first world problem that most people would love to have, but it's still bugging...

There is very good coverage (several links) of this at the BBC site: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ From one story, link here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21812853 Here is the logic behind imposing a hefty levy on Cyprus deposits, according to this official: 1) Regulators and politicians are conv...

I don't stop at just 1 ziplock bag. Maybe 1 bag each for: 1) shaver and toothbrush 2) electronic charging gear 3) the clothing that didn't get quite dry after washing + plus a few extras for whatever else might need organizing. :happy Also those very little zip locks (about 3 inches) are good to kee...

... Separately, has anyone ever told the Munchkin Man that he writes like a Chuck Pahalniuk novel? I believe there has been dialog about MM's writing style. He's a unique Boglehead and I appreciate his willingness to be a little different. However, I'd not recommend he try writing his first novel. ...

I think this relates to personal finance, so here goes: Just wanted to give the Bogleheads a heads up on something I found out today. ~25 days ago, I bought a watch from Amazon for $95. Today, I happened to see that the watch price had dropped to $65, a 30% change or so! I called Amazon politely as...

Recently I went to a 2 wallet system (patent pending :happy ). Wallet #1: decoy wallet in back pocket with some cash and your cards that could be stolen without being a real pain (like a library card) Wallet #2: the one with the all the critical cards that is in my left front pocket. Now this one ca...

A few nice day trips out of Paris (by train) are Fountainbleu, Vie Le Vicomte and Chartre. Check out the Rick Steve's Paris book for details. Your library might carry a copy of this book.

Have any of you considered the following strategy? 1) Keep same AA mix in Roth and tIRA. Try to keep same funds/ETF's in both. 2) As equity markets climb from SP500 low (4 years now) reduce equities in Roth and increase them in tIRA so as to keep the AA mix constant overall 3) If a substantial equit...

Thanks for sharing your views swj05652. Always nice to get an inside perspective.

There are several videos on the Chinese real estate bubble posted at the 60 Minutes site. http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=50142079n Some are just startlingly frank. Lev Thanks for this pointer. At the bottom of the web page are "Web Extras". I watched at least 3 shorts and they add...

I don't understand this odd phenomenon. If every apartment is owned by someone, why don't they move in or rent it out to generate cashflow? Why just let them sit there empty? ... They do not necessarily live in the area nor do their relations. Nobody to rent them out to as the area they are built i...

Yes. It is a bubble. manipulated by central government policy and by local governments (who make a lot of revenues, and bribes, by selling land and building permits). Bank officers received payoffs to make loans to developers. When it blows the mess will be impressive: - big impact on the global de...

I watched this last night and the pictures were quite remarkable. Basically whole cityscapes that were empty of people. I've read of these problems over a few years from other media sources but the pictures bring home the scale of the issues. One interviewee said that the apartments were all sold to...

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A few things I noticed when evaluating International mid/small some months ago: SFILX: I decided against this one because it had a 33% exposure to Japan in Nov 2011. This just seemed weird and too extreme. The fund info was lacking too, not even a complete country listing in their annual report. ER ...

I was surprised at the Friday night announcement. I do think the show should somewhat modify the format. Once I tried to express my opinions on their website but then concluded that they are broadcasters -- no real desire for two way dialog. I liked Tom too. He seemed very happy during the announcem...

Since there are a lot of posters on this thread whose opinion I respect let me pose this question to all of you. Pimco Total Return Fund, except for very occasional short periods, has managed to outperform the Bar Cap Agg Index consistently. It is very hard to believe that any manager can be that s...

I have never seen the bid-ask so low on VSS but maybe that happens occasionally. From Vanguard the 30 day average is 0.14%. That had been my experience, but I saw someone recommend purchasing around 3-3:30 pm EST for lower spreads, and managed to get 1 cent for each of the next two monthly purchase...

I currently hold Explorer in my IRA as the only International Midcap. When I last looked at this a few months ago the VSS bid-ask spread was 0.2% and the premium was 0.6%. Most of my portfolio is in indexed ETF's so Explorer is the exception. For LC international I have VEU. The bid-ask does shrink...

...(snip)... Given the competitive ERs and lack of transaction fees (0.50% both in & out) is there anyone else here who thinks Explorer is at least as good a choice as FTSE All-World x-US Small-Cap? I ask this question with the assumption it will be held in an IRA such that there's no tax cost ...

In retirement you confront the person you are rather then then one the company wanted. I'm pretty happy doing things that don't involve a lot of social interaction, though I need a wee bit of that too. Here are some of my activities in retirement: exercise - I run a lot and had been doing that for y...

But the whole point of coming to Bogleheads is take the path less taken by the average investor. Ironically, the Bogleheads philosophy is to use index funds to follow exactly the path taken by the average investor, only with lower expenses, risk, and effort. And here I thought the point was to argu...

I look at this forum as a place to gather information from others. It is entirely up to ME if I want to use it or not. I would NEVER relinquish control of my financial life to strangers. :shock: I agree! ... and would add, investing is about thinking for yourself. It is not wise to just follow the ...

I look at this forum as a place to gather information from others. It is entirely up to ME if I want to use it or not. I would NEVER relinquish control of my financial life to strangers. :shock: I agree! ... and would add, investing is about thinking for yourself. It is not wise to just follow the ...

...(snip)... Historically, negative returns on bonds have had very little impact on balanced portfolios. To measure this, we'll look at all rolling 12 month returns from 1928-2011 for 4 portfolio combinations: (1) 60% S&P 500, 40% 5YR T-notes, (2) 12% S&P 500, 18% US large value index, 30% ...

This is 2+ years old, but I've heard that at the most recent BOGLEHEADS "reunion" (convention, really) Dr. Bernstein said he still believes this: http://www.morningstar.com/cover/videocenter.aspx?id=355635 Thanks for that link. Focusing on one part of the interview where Bernstein says: I...

Dr. Bernstein points out that at these levels, anything longer than short term bonds converts your safe money into risk money. Do you have a link to where Bernstein discusses this in more depth? I think he has recommended very short term bonds for a few years now. Perhaps a bit early. I'm wondering...

...(snip)... Why do distribution yields decline in year 1, before rising again? I'm glad you like it. The distribution yields have been declining over the last year at around that rate. So I just assume this will continue linearly. I won't get into the dynamics of why the distribution yield decline...