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Re: What to do with 5M?

Hey everyone, I wanted to post an update two months later. After my last post, I took LadyGeek's advice and slowed down. I didn't invest in anything new. Instead, I spent the holiday reading "Little Book of Common Sense" and then "How a second grader beat wall street" (HUGE than...
by Blue
Fri Feb 13, 2015 4:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with 5M?
Replies: 52
Views: 8679

Re: How much is a safe car worth?

I'm reminded of the study where 93% of drivers rated themselves as better than the median.

Overconfidence Effect
by Blue
Tue Feb 10, 2015 7:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much is a safe car worth?
Replies: 170
Views: 8938

Re: Amica burned me, now what...

After seeing the results of these two homeowners insurance polls, I put our personal insurance out to bid using an independent agent who priced many of the company names on the poll along with a few of the other companies on my own. We were able to drop our rates by over a third. Good luck. https://...
by Blue
Mon Feb 09, 2015 10:45 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Amica burned me, now what...
Replies: 43
Views: 4741

Re: Crestbrook vs Chubb Home Insurance

Thanks for the comments. Our Crestbrook quote is about 1/3 cheaper than Chubb and their marketing materials appears to be very similar to Chubb's. Guess it's a matter of whether the cost savings is worth taking the risk of a new subsidiary of Nationwide vs the known player.
by Blue
Fri Feb 06, 2015 9:23 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Crestbrook vs Chubb Home Insurance
Replies: 8
Views: 462

Re: How much is a safe car worth?

tadamsmar wrote:
Where did you get the Camry-specific numbers IIHS rates?



http://www.iihs.org/iihs/topics/driver-death-rates then I selected the 2004 model year tab.
by Blue
Fri Feb 06, 2015 9:04 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much is a safe car worth?
Replies: 170
Views: 8938

Crestbrook vs Chubb Home Insurance

Curious if anyone has had experience with Crestbrook Insurance, a subsidiary of Nationwide that has entered the market as a competitor to Chubb ( article on Crestbrook ). Our two most favorable quotes for our insurance needs were from Chubb and Crestbrook but the latter is significantly cheaper of t...
by Blue
Fri Feb 06, 2015 8:29 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Crestbrook vs Chubb Home Insurance
Replies: 8
Views: 462

Re: How much is a safe car worth?

tadamsmar and ram --- I love the quantitative approach! I took both of your approaches and attempted to apply them to the OP's situation. The 2004 IIHS fatality report lists Camry fatality rate 55 (44-66). The most recent report lists a 2011 Subaru Outback having fatality rate 6 (0-14) and Honda Pil...
by Blue
Thu Feb 05, 2015 8:53 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much is a safe car worth?
Replies: 170
Views: 8938

Re: How much is a safe car worth?

How much is a safe car worth? F*M*L*S/100,000,000 dollars when expressed as a discount off yearly total cost to own (TCO) F= the base fatality rate for average cars (deaths per 100 million vehicle miles traveled) M = the miles traveled per year of your car L = is the value of a loved one's life in ...
by Blue
Wed Feb 04, 2015 8:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much is a safe car worth?
Replies: 170
Views: 8938

Re: How much is a safe car worth?

All fair points. While some among us rationalize higher auto expenses based on safety tending to buy more than otherwise natured (myself likely among this group), I don't think $7k additional per year expenditures is the most representive example of cost vs risk reduction. For example, Edmunds list...
by Blue
Tue Feb 03, 2015 9:23 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much is a safe car worth?
Replies: 170
Views: 8938

Re: How much is a safe car worth?

Playing devil's advocate: The odds of an individual dying in an automobile accident in the US over the course of your car's lifetime is extremely low. According to this link at Insurance Information Institute the lifetime odds of dying in an automobile accident are 1 in 491. For our family unit of ...
by Blue
Mon Feb 02, 2015 8:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much is a safe car worth?
Replies: 170
Views: 8938

Re: Thoughts on DFA equities?

My concern about DFA is, that it a privately held company and most likely will be sold during my investing life. When that happens, the fees/philosophy may very well change. DFA funds held in a my taxable account then are held hostage by the tax bill ( shifting to a true index fund to get out of a ...
by Blue
Mon Feb 02, 2015 2:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on DFA equities?
Replies: 19
Views: 1790

Re: How much is a safe car worth?

Playing devil's advocate: The odds of an individual dying in an automobile accident in the US over the course of your car's lifetime is extremely low. According to this link at Insurance Information Institute the lifetime odds of dying in an automobile accident are 1 in 491. For our family unit of ...
by Blue
Mon Feb 02, 2015 1:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much is a safe car worth?
Replies: 170
Views: 8938

Re: How much is a safe car worth?

Playing devil's advocate: The odds of an individual dying in an automobile accident in the US over the course of your car's lifetime is extremely low. According to this link at Insurance Information Institute the lifetime odds of dying in an automobile accident are 1 in 491. For our family unit of ...
by Blue
Mon Feb 02, 2015 9:30 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much is a safe car worth?
Replies: 170
Views: 8938

Re: How much is a safe car worth?

To clarify, I don't honestly know to what extent they have looked at alcohol related fatalities. My point is simply that I do not believe "1 drunk Subaru driver" skews the results in a meaningful way. If you don't believe me, then why don't you look at IIHS's own confidence intervals. The...
by Blue
Sun Feb 01, 2015 2:23 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much is a safe car worth?
Replies: 170
Views: 8938

Re: How much is a safe car worth?

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2015/01/30/iihs-9-car-models-safest/22571299/ Poking around with the numbers a little it seems that the safest cars cost about $13k/yr to own and operate (new then sold in 5 yrs) and the cheapest about $6k/yr. You have about a 1 in 20000 chance per year of d...
by Blue
Sun Feb 01, 2015 11:58 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much is a safe car worth?
Replies: 170
Views: 8938

Re: How much is a safe car worth?

Let's look at the statistics hypothetically. Statistically, say a newer vehicle is 4 times safer than a Camry. What is the value of increasing you and your family's survival rate from 99.999% to 99.9999%? (Use whatever number IIHS says.) I would say the odds of you outlasting your retirement or an ...
by Blue
Sun Feb 01, 2015 11:36 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much is a safe car worth?
Replies: 170
Views: 8938

Re: How much is a safe car worth?

Problems I see are that no one drives or buys an average composite of all new cars. Instead, you buy a vehicle with a particular make and model, that may have a lot or very little in the way of new safety features compared to an older car. The data on the safety of a particular make and model can b...
by Blue
Sun Feb 01, 2015 11:18 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much is a safe car worth?
Replies: 170
Views: 8938

Re: How much is a safe car worth?

Problems I see are that no one drives or buys an average composite of all new cars. Instead, you buy a vehicle with a particular make and model, that may have a lot or very little in the way of new safety features compared to an older car. The data on the safety of a particular make and model can b...
by Blue
Sun Feb 01, 2015 11:10 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much is a safe car worth?
Replies: 170
Views: 8938

Re: How much is a safe car worth?

That said, I must have missed the part on the IIHS data that it was on driver deaths only. I wonder why that's the case? This corrects for different numbers of average passengers among vehicles. So a van of five passengers doesn't get counted more heavily than a two seater sports car if there are a...
by Blue
Sun Feb 01, 2015 11:03 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much is a safe car worth?
Replies: 170
Views: 8938

Re: How much is a safe car worth?

Problems I see are that no one drives or buys an average composite of all new cars. Instead, you buy a vehicle with a particular make and model, that may have a lot or very little in the way of new safety features compared to an older car. The data on the safety of a particular make and model can b...
by Blue
Sun Feb 01, 2015 7:57 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much is a safe car worth?
Replies: 170
Views: 8938

Re: How much is a safe car worth?

You can check fatality rates for older models here, http://www.iihs.org/iihs/topics/driver-death-rates 2005 Camry either 46 or 55 driver fatalities per million (If you look at 2008 vs 2004 report). This gives you a basis for your existing risk compared to any potential purchase. I personally worry l...
by Blue
Sun Feb 01, 2015 7:51 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much is a safe car worth?
Replies: 170
Views: 8938

Re: Credit card FICO, is it a gimmick? EMV+sign, useful?

I had the same thought about the FICO score because the range shows 900 as max score (instead of 850).
by Blue
Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:31 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Credit card FICO, is it a gimmick? EMV+sign, useful?
Replies: 20
Views: 2387

Re: Keurig-cup coffee makers - why?

Small incremental monetary cost vs small incremental time gain. For us, the latter is sufficiently large that it is worth the incremental cost.
by Blue
Wed Jan 21, 2015 7:36 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Keurig-cup coffee makers - why?
Replies: 120
Views: 9161

Re: I'm thinking about making very large 529 contributions A

It crossed my mind. There might be a narrow window where it makes sense to heavily front load this year. I'm "staying tuned" to see how the conversation develops. No immediate plans for now.
by Blue
Wed Jan 21, 2015 6:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm thinking about making very large 529 contributions ASAP
Replies: 71
Views: 5404

Re: Larry's New Book On Sale

Just downloaded it - thanks for the post.
by Blue
Fri Jan 16, 2015 5:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry's New Book On Sale
Replies: 10
Views: 1795

Re: POLL: For those under $20/month/$100k: What Insurance Co

Admittedly, this is an imperfect survey subject to a number of confounding factors. At the same time, when I searched through past threads and other sites on pricing & shopping homeowners insurance, there seemed to be little guidance in terms of reasonable cost expectations or even a strong cons...
by Blue
Mon Jan 12, 2015 10:25 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POLL: For those under $20/month/$100k: What Insurance Comp?
Replies: 11
Views: 1412

Re: POLL: Homeowners Ins cost $/month per $100k home value?

For those selecting a poll option under $20/month per $100k home value, I've added a second poll inquiring about which insurance company you use. The intent of this second poll is to generate a list of insurance companies used by bogleheads who have the more favorable insurance prices.
by Blue
Mon Jan 12, 2015 5:06 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POLL: Homeowners Ins cost $/month per $100k home value?
Replies: 42
Views: 3238

Re: POLL: For those under $20/month/$100k: What Insurance Co

I edited the poll adding an option for those paying more than this amount to more readily view the results.
by Blue
Sun Jan 11, 2015 10:23 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POLL: For those under $20/month/$100k: What Insurance Comp?
Replies: 11
Views: 1412

POLL: For those under $20/month/$100k: What Insurance Comp?

This is a follow-up poll from the poll asking cost $/month of homeowners insurance per $100k home value . If you answered $20 or below per month per $100,000 house value, you are in the most favorable 30% of the initial 51 entries. If you fit this select group, what insurance company do you use? The...
by Blue
Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:10 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POLL: For those under $20/month/$100k: What Insurance Comp?
Replies: 11
Views: 1412

POLL: Homeowners Ins cost $/month per $100k home value?

What do you pay in dollars per month for every $100,000 of your home value for a standard single family homeowners insurance policy (HO-3)? Use the home value for which you are insured, not some other estimate of home value. The intent of this poll is to generate a range of prices that participants ...
by Blue
Sun Jan 11, 2015 2:41 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POLL: Homeowners Ins cost $/month per $100k home value?
Replies: 42
Views: 3238

Re: We miss Larry Swedroe

So very true! Noticed the absence myself and hoped it was just holiday vacation time.
by Blue
Sun Jan 11, 2015 12:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We miss Larry Swedroe
Replies: 28
Views: 7486

Re: Physician owned building versus rent

My experience from being involved in two of these very successful type deals and from your description above, is that the risk is largely born by the medical practice (i.e., long-term lease with fixed rent schedule) and the fruits of the reward go to the physician owners of the building LLC. Since y...
by Blue
Sat Jan 10, 2015 3:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Physician owned building versus rent
Replies: 16
Views: 1433

Re: Can I retire early? 38 y/o

I think the biggest risk is lifestyle creep. In a $900k home, how many of your neighbors are living on high five figures?

From personal experience, raising a family with kid(s) in an upscale community is not a cheap endeavor.
by Blue
Fri Jan 09, 2015 10:38 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I retire early? 38 y/o
Replies: 89
Views: 10651

Re: Purchasing a car with credit cards for cash back rewards

We tried it with last two car purchases, each dealership capped at $3k.
by Blue
Fri Jan 09, 2015 10:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Purchasing a car with credit cards for cash back rewards?
Replies: 36
Views: 3394

Re: 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST WINNER

Very nice!
by Blue
Thu Jan 01, 2015 9:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST WINNER
Replies: 23
Views: 2458

Re: Factor return premiums: academic theory vs. what you'll

Nice article. I'd add the ability "to stay the course" due to tracking error as a potential cost. Giving up on a strategy at the wrong time is a surefire way to underperform the market. Tracking error (both magnitude and length of tracking error) and the "noise" from finance lite...
by Blue
Tue Dec 23, 2014 12:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor return premiums: academic theory vs. what you'll get
Replies: 9
Views: 1236

Re: Don't be tempted to buy your teen a cheap (old) car, par

I'll buy the ESC, there is strong data to support that. But major safety improvements like ESC don't happen every year. Maybe not even every 10 years. Anybody in the car industry here know of anything in the pipeline that would even approach the breakthrough that ESC was? And I can't help but think...
by Blue
Sun Dec 21, 2014 1:20 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Don't be tempted to buy your teen a cheap (old) car, parents
Replies: 139
Views: 11725

Re: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective

I couldn't get the links to the article to work either.
by Blue
Sat Dec 13, 2014 12:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective
Replies: 38
Views: 2813

Re: Designing a vanguard 401k plan for a small company

We're in the process of switching our existing plan to Vanguard now. My understanding is that Vanguard will help you select funds as you work through plan set-up. Alternatively, you can also purchase through Vanguard ERISA support at two different priced levels (3 bps is lower) where a contracted th...
by Blue
Wed Nov 26, 2014 9:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Designing a vanguard 401k plan for a small company
Replies: 4
Views: 620

Lamps for S.A.D. problem

I bought one a few years ago. Marginal improvement for me but my compliance was probably suboptimal. Couple years ago I had a "mid-life crisis" and hired a personal trainer who comes to my house. I aim to get 300 minutes of moderate to vigorous exercise per week to maximize health benefits...
by Blue
Mon Nov 24, 2014 10:57 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lamps for S.A.D. problem
Replies: 18
Views: 1781

Re: a look at the size premium and BtM

Always enjoy your articles Larry. Nicely written as usual. Interesting terminology, "economically significant" vs "statistically significant". I interpret the former as, "would have made the investor a significant return but could have been because of random luck that may no...
by Blue
Mon Nov 24, 2014 7:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a look at the size premium and BtM
Replies: 5
Views: 819

Re: Update on the ascent of CAPE

Of course, you can't use PE/10 to time the market. But it's interesting that if you had switched your allocation from 100% in stocks to 100% in intermediate treasuries in January, 1996 (when PE10 breached 27) you could have stayed 100% in treasuries until 2009 (14 years) and gotten the same compoun...
by Blue
Mon Nov 24, 2014 7:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Update on the ascent of CAPE
Replies: 19
Views: 1573

Re: Paid off our Mortgage this evening!

Kudos!
by Blue
Sun Nov 23, 2014 8:20 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paid off our Mortgage this evening!
Replies: 75
Views: 10606

Re: 529 Plan - when to stop contributing?

We view our 529's as a subset of our portfolio that is aimed for long term financial support of a multigenerational emphasis on higher education that we hope to cultivate for our descendants. Anything not used by our kids for their education hopefully will be used by our grandkids. Rough dollar amou...
by Blue
Sat Nov 22, 2014 11:26 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 529 Plan - when to stop contributing?
Replies: 15
Views: 2074

Re: interesting paper: facts and fantasies on factor investi

Nice paper - thanks for posting it Larry.

This "fact" from the conclusion surprised me -

Risk factors are local, not global. It means that risk factors are not homogenous. For instance, the value factors in the US and Japan can not be compared (distressed stocks vs quality stocks).
by Blue
Sat Nov 22, 2014 10:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: interesting paper: facts and fantasies on factor investing
Replies: 5
Views: 1057

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

If magnitudes of premia are reduced going forward but still positive, at what level of reduction in premia should an investor worry that this is not a good ex ante risk vs reward expectation? For example, if an investor believes premia will be halved going forward - should this investor still consid...
by Blue
Wed Nov 19, 2014 10:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 307
Views: 35838

Re: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt

I wish every financial piece the author/speaker was required to reveal financial conflicts of interest or the absence of such conflicts.
by Blue
Wed Nov 19, 2014 10:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt
Replies: 155
Views: 29741

Re: How can I find out the actual value of my car?

My BIL used to work for a dealer. They had a database of auction values of actual transactions for cars by model, year, mileage, etc. It provided great comps to get an estimate of car value.

Unfortunately, I've never found anything exactly like this publicly available on the Internet.
by Blue
Mon Nov 10, 2014 4:46 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How can I find out the actual value of my car?
Replies: 19
Views: 3001

Re: Morbid Question

I have outlined a multiple page letter included where we keep our life insurance documents outlining what my wife should do in the event of my death. Accounts, passwords, philosophies, using this board as a sounding board, etc. There have been a few other good threads on this topic in the past. Prob...
by Blue
Mon Nov 03, 2014 9:56 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Morbid Question
Replies: 28
Views: 4192

Re: The safest 4 door sedan out there

I'm also surprised no one mentioned Tesla S , as this was heavily reported in the news recently as being the safest car ever tested. NHTSA rates it 5 stars in every category, something only 1% of tested cars achieve. The Tesla even famously broke the test equipment . http://www.teslamotors.com/abou...
by Blue
Thu Oct 30, 2014 12:55 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The safest 4 door sedan out there
Replies: 74
Views: 4785
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