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Re: The safest 4 door sedan out there

I'm also surprised no one mentioned Tesla S , as this was heavily reported in the news recently as being the safest car ever tested. NHTSA rates it 5 stars in every category, something only 1% of tested cars achieve. The Tesla even famously broke the test equipment . http://www.teslamotors.com/abou...
by Blue
Thu Oct 30, 2014 1:55 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The safest 4 door sedan out there
Replies: 70
Views: 3179

Re: The safest 4 door sedan out there

When comparing safety among luxury cars, I've always been impressed that Mercedes E class is one of the few models routinely tested by the large agencies (unlike the S class, Lexus LS, Range Rover's, etc). Not sure this has a practical impact on safety of these vehicles, but if there is safety flaw ...
by Blue
Thu Oct 30, 2014 6:40 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The safest 4 door sedan out there
Replies: 70
Views: 3179

Re: The safest 4 door sedan out there

I am not sure "stop on a dime considering their weight" is a known effect. Because Kinetic Energy is proportional to the square of the impact velocity, I've always believed that stopping ability has an outsized impact on vehicle safety. It is one of the reasons (I believe) active forward ...
by Blue
Thu Oct 30, 2014 6:31 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The safest 4 door sedan out there
Replies: 70
Views: 3179

Re: The safest 4 door sedan out there

I would submit that there really is no answer. There are certainly tests and results from those tests. Does that prove that a car is the safest? I doubt it. Are the tests and their weightings coorelated with real world results? I don't know. Seeing how Mercedes invented most of the safety related f...
by Blue
Wed Oct 29, 2014 10:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The safest 4 door sedan out there
Replies: 70
Views: 3179

Re: VFWAX vs. VTIAX

VTIAX also invests in Canada where VFWAX does not. As a consequence VTIAX holds more companies than VFWAX and also has lower annual turnover. Vanguard's website indicates VFWAX has 6.8% allocation to Canada. (VTIAX has 7.6% allocation to Canada). This used to be a difference between the two funds (...
by Blue
Wed Oct 29, 2014 6:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VFWAX vs. VTIAX
Replies: 4
Views: 624

Re: The safest 4 door sedan out there

CountryBoy wrote:Mercedes E class
InformedForLife.org Safety Assessment NOT RECOMMENDED:
[NHTSA overall rating in bottom 59%]
[NHTSA frontal impact rating in bottom 72%]

And yet it has the lowest driver fatality rate ever in IIHS fatality report (so does Audi A6).
by Blue
Wed Oct 29, 2014 4:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The safest 4 door sedan out there
Replies: 70
Views: 3179

Re: The safest 4 door sedan out there

Mercedes E class
by Blue
Wed Oct 29, 2014 4:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The safest 4 door sedan out there
Replies: 70
Views: 3179

Re: Best town I've never heard of [for relocating]

Carmel, Indiana
by Blue
Wed Oct 15, 2014 9:23 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best town I've never heard of [for relocating]
Replies: 97
Views: 9782

Re: New case of Ebola in U.S.: Is it the latest market headw

I'm sure it's affected it in some way. There are those who believe the end is neigh. Because each week the news has gotten worse, their fears become more and more "validated." Admittedly I have been thrown for a loop myself but I'm not panicking. When it all first started I never thought ...
by Blue
Wed Oct 15, 2014 9:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New case of Ebola in U.S.: Is it the latest market headwind?
Replies: 13
Views: 1303

Re: Asset allocation market timing strategy inspired by John

Investor actions commonly leads to ~200 bps of underperformance relative to the mutual fund returns (dollar weighted vs time weighted returns). Tinkering with the asset allocation over time presents significant risk to the investor and should not be undertaken lightly. When hearing the siren song of...
by Blue
Sun Oct 05, 2014 7:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation market timing strategy inspired by John B
Replies: 43
Views: 3249

Re: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value

Does PowerShares give back 100% of securities lending revenue?
by Blue
Wed Sep 17, 2014 9:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Due diligence on RAFI Pure Small Value
Replies: 187
Views: 16496

Re: CalPERS Eliminates Hedge Fund Program

A large institution like Calpers cannot put, say, 10% of their portfolio of ~300 bn into microcaps or even SV without distorting prices. Thus their exposure to really small stocks will not have much of an impact on their portfolio returns. A small investor can do it. Which is what Larry stated, as ...
by Blue
Wed Sep 17, 2014 6:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CalPERS Eliminates Hedge Fund Program
Replies: 44
Views: 2973

Re: CalPERS Eliminates Hedge Fund Program

And unlike us small investors who can heavily load on factors like small/value CALPERS really is too big to do that, cannot put tens of billions into small corner of the market , so don't see how they can get there from here without lots of luck. Larry Why is this true? In comparison to "tens ...
by Blue
Mon Sep 15, 2014 9:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CalPERS Eliminates Hedge Fund Program
Replies: 44
Views: 2973

Re: Why no more Vanguards

I recall Bill Bernstein making the point that instead of Booth et al selling off DFA funds to the highest bidder, they should instead "Vanguardize" it. Not sure exactly how the mechanics would work, but one can envision it being in the realm of possible.
by Blue
Fri Sep 05, 2014 10:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why no more Vanguards
Replies: 36
Views: 4942

Re: Let me get this straight about SCV & factor diversificat

countmein wrote:. I happen to believe with more certainty that small value will get absolutely obliterated in deflationary times more than I believe that it will outperform by any wide margin in 'normal times'.


Curious why you believe this?
by Blue
Thu Sep 04, 2014 6:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Let me get this straight about SCV & factor diversification
Replies: 153
Views: 9289

Re: 100% Stock Thread Collection

Hi guys, Purchasing an indexed call contract involves no borrowing of money. Why not go from 100% to 105% stocks by investing 98% in stocks and 2% in indexed stock call options. What is the big extra risk here? The worst that can happen to the options is that they expire worthless and your portfoli...
by Blue
Wed Sep 03, 2014 5:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stock Thread Collection
Replies: 93
Views: 5631

Re: 100% Stock Thread Collection

I have trouble understanding why those who believe 100% allocation to stocks is a good idea, wouldn't also believe that investing more than 100% would be an even better idea. So why don't we see threads advocating 105% or 110% stocks? Where is the magic in 100%? BobK This is a very good question. F...
by Blue
Tue Sep 02, 2014 9:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stock Thread Collection
Replies: 93
Views: 5631

Re: 100% Stock Thread Collection

Here's one from Feb 2009. Having a reasonable expectation of significant future portfolio contributions relatively to portfolio size has helped us maintain 100% stock since mid '90's. Also, diversifying across factors and geographies within 100% stock has been helpful. http://www.bogleheads.org/foru...
by Blue
Mon Sep 01, 2014 2:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stock Thread Collection
Replies: 93
Views: 5631

Re: Give Your Portfolio Room To Maneuver-DFA/Bridgeway

The balanced fund has higher size and value loads than the barbell approach. Why does the author not address how this impacts the three year performance difference in his analysis? Why doesn't the difference in load factors explain the performance difference?
by Blue
Sat Aug 23, 2014 5:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Give Your Portfolio Room To Maneuver-DFA/Bridgeway
Replies: 13
Views: 1833

Re: I need "Ultra High Net Worth" investing advice please

At this level of assets, you are eligible for flagship select service at Vanguard which should provide quite a bit of hand holding if you want it. That said, I've never been impressed that the principles needed to manage an eight figure portfolio are that much different than a seven or six figure po...
by Blue
Sat Aug 23, 2014 3:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I need "Ultra High Net Worth" investing advice please
Replies: 225
Views: 19453

Re: An Honest Stock Market Update - A good laugh

Very humorous article.
by Blue
Mon Aug 18, 2014 8:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An Honest Stock Market Update - A good laugh
Replies: 17
Views: 2988

Re: Bankrolled Her Brother, Regrets It (article)

It's pretty cool though that the niece has an iphone 6 before it's even been released. :shock:

Maybe the brother has an uber secret important job at apple :D
by Blue
Mon Aug 18, 2014 8:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bankrolled Her Brother, Regrets It (article)
Replies: 24
Views: 4000

Re: Arnott's/RAFI 10 year 'expected' returns

FWIW, I'll post the fundamental value for a few Vanguard funds. The fundamental value (as I'm using the term) is the result of (1) dividing each of the other four valuations measures by the valuation for the total market and (2) averaging the result. This way of doing things lets us express valuati...
by Blue
Sun Aug 03, 2014 5:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Arnott's/RAFI 10 year 'expected' returns
Replies: 78
Views: 4960

Re: MOM faltering? [Momentum]

In the theme of a total portfolio loading of zero momentum rather than negative momentum, I notice Vanguard and DFA's small cap value funds both load essentially zero on momentum on regressions over the past five years ( link ) Going back farther on the starting date for regressions using the same s...
by Blue
Thu Jul 31, 2014 8:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MOM faltering? [Momentum]
Replies: 94
Views: 6491

Re: MOM faltering? [Momentum]

If a momentum premium is large, persistent, and pervasive, and the concept so well known for decades, where are the active managers/traders who have found success with outperformance? Keep in mind many of them would have kept the outperformance for themselves in the form of fees. Note that Bogle ha...
by Blue
Thu Jul 31, 2014 6:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MOM faltering? [Momentum]
Replies: 94
Views: 6491

Re: MOM faltering? [Momentum]

If a momentum premium is large, persistent, and pervasive, and the concept so well known for decades, where are the active managers/traders who have found success with outperformance?
by Blue
Thu Jul 31, 2014 3:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MOM faltering? [Momentum]
Replies: 94
Views: 6491

Re: Ode to Nisiprius, investing, AA, and, other life choices

Considerable wisdom in this. I always love reading posts by Nisi
by Blue
Mon Jul 28, 2014 9:26 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Ode to Nisiprius, investing, AA, and, other life choices.
Replies: 6
Views: 1438

Re: 529 - in-state only up to deduction amount?

This is what we do. In-state to max state benefit then amounts above this go to the Utah plan.
by Blue
Mon Jul 28, 2014 9:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 529 - in-state only up to deduction amount?
Replies: 9
Views: 665

Re: Portfolio review

I probably didn't read closely enough, but why do you have 20% of your current investments in cash "for investing"? I notice a relatively low portfolio value relative to anticipated future portfolio contributions. Usually this means recent flux in income and paying off of student loans and...
by Blue
Fri Jul 25, 2014 6:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio review
Replies: 20
Views: 2071

Re: Momentum Investing ?

The story about long momentum is that costs of implementation used to be high, but now are cheap. So you have a story of why long momentum wasn't arbitraged away in the 70s, but no reason to think it can't be arbitraged away today. So if you're betting on a premium that you think will eventually di...
by Blue
Tue Jul 22, 2014 7:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum Investing ?
Replies: 55
Views: 4800

Re: a close look at value and momentum

Again its a personal choice on what actions, if any, we should take. Personally, I have no problem with someone holding a (world) market index fund as their only stock holding, just as I don't have an issue with someone holding the iShares MSCI USA Momentum fund. I can see a rationale for either. T...
by Blue
Sun Jul 20, 2014 7:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a close look at value and momentum
Replies: 259
Views: 18814

Re: If no access to DFA, Small Value worth it?

Blue Don't know how you calculated the expected returns but don't see how it can be correct as the Bridgeway fund is MUCH Smaller (and much deeper value metrics once look beyond BTm) One issue might be that your calculations look at value solely through BtM metric---which is what DFA fund does in s...
by Blue
Sat Jul 19, 2014 2:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If no access to DFA, Small Value worth it?
Replies: 30
Views: 4038

Re: If no access to DFA, Small Value worth it?

Thanks for all the replies here. The link from Alec (very helpful) and comments from Kevin M, Nisi, and Larry lead me to think that doing what I'm doing is just fine, esp for a satisficer like me. Maybe when I retire I'll decide to use a DFA advisor and get access to those funds. To know whether to...
by Blue
Sat Jul 19, 2014 1:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If no access to DFA, Small Value worth it?
Replies: 30
Views: 4038

Re: a close look at value and momentum

Larry - really curious what your thoughts are on this question and wanted to make sure it wasn't lost in this very informative and long thread. Larry, With a factor like momentum where there is a less convincing reason for it to persist, how long do reasonable investors stay the course in a hypothet...
by Blue
Fri Jul 18, 2014 11:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a close look at value and momentum
Replies: 259
Views: 18814

Re: a close look at value and momentum

Larry, With a factor like momentum where there is a less convincing reason for it to persist, how long do reasonable investors stay the course in a hypothetical future period of prolonged momentum underperformance? In a period of prolonged momentum underperformance, what would influence you to eithe...
by Blue
Thu Jul 17, 2014 10:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a close look at value and momentum
Replies: 259
Views: 18814

Re: Financial Times Article on Vanguard.

This quote stood out to me, Indeed, Fidelity has had net outflows so far this year, of $3.5bn (to end June, according to Morningstar data), against Vanguard’s $64.8bn inflows. JPMorgan, with $14.7bn of new money, is next in line, while Dimensional Fund Advisors is third with $14.5bn. Vanguard's appr...
by Blue
Mon Jul 14, 2014 7:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial Times Article on Vanguard.
Replies: 12
Views: 2753

Re: A Look at Current P/E Ratios

The past 3, 5, and 10 year returns do not support SV being the next '99 tech stock fad. Comparing returns of Vanguard's SCV fund VISVX to Vanguard's TSM VTSMX according to M*; VISVX (SCV) vs VTSMX (TSM) 3 yr return: 16.1% vs 16.3% VISVX (SCV) vs VTSMX (TSM) 5 yr return: 22.9% vs 20.4% VISVX (SCV) vs...
by Blue
Sat Jul 12, 2014 9:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Look at Current P/E Ratios
Replies: 54
Views: 7057

Re: High end purses

My wife and many female acquaintances vouch for the coach outlet store near us. I splurged one year as a gift for a Louis bag from Saks, my wife returned it saying it was too much. We some time later did purchase one that she ultimately enjoyed at a "somewhat more reasonable price". One of...
by Blue
Fri Jul 11, 2014 11:26 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: High end purses
Replies: 119
Views: 13452

Re: "Being Done" Saving: White Coat Investor blog post

How does one individual contribute max to two separate 401k's in the same year?
by Blue
Fri Jun 27, 2014 7:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Being Done" Saving: White Coat Investor blog post
Replies: 47
Views: 8004

Re: Why Asset Allocate/ Slice and Dice

Beyond the usual arguments, I thought Bill Bernstein made an intriguing point in his latest book about the additional volatility of small-value being worth an additional 60 bps to the periodic investor. Increased volatility allows the accumulator to buy more at deeper, more frequent lows.
by Blue
Tue Jun 24, 2014 10:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Asset Allocate/ Slice and Dice
Replies: 37
Views: 2225

Re: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns

Reasonable to me, while recognizing he could be completely off. Naturally these are just midpoints of estimated ranges and even then the true values could fall outside of the ranges. That said, in November 2013 I dumped 90% of my small/value US tilt and bought international with all of it, especial...
by Blue
Tue Jun 10, 2014 6:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns [1.4% for 60/40]
Replies: 207
Views: 18063

Re: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns

Reasonable to me, while recognizing he could be completely off. Naturally these are just midpoints of estimated ranges and even then the true values could fall outside of the ranges. That said, in November 2013 I dumped 90% of my small/value US tilt and bought international with all of it, especial...
by Blue
Tue Jun 10, 2014 5:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns [1.4% for 60/40]
Replies: 207
Views: 18063

Re: GMO's 7 year predictions

Ed,

Nice paper. I'm curious how much of the outperformance of "top 3 fund portfolio" vs "normal diversified portfolio" is due to size factor and emerging market tilts/risks rather than demonstrating any predictive ability?
by Blue
Mon Jun 09, 2014 9:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GMO's 7 year predictions
Replies: 6
Views: 1250

Re: Bernstein - Volatility Beneficial for Accumulators

Doesn't this only work if you assume mean reversion and fix the end point of the asset? If the asset has a unit root, then volatility only hurts; it never helps. Even with DCA. Interesting reading you linked on unit root. Bernstein makes the point in the book (pg 64) that statistically significant ...
by Blue
Mon Jun 09, 2014 7:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein - Volatility Beneficial for Accumulators
Replies: 7
Views: 1227

Bernstein - Volatility Beneficial for Accumulators

In Bernstein's recently published book Rational Expectations, the point is made that SV would have to underperform SP500 by 0.64% or more before it "loses" for the accumulator who is making periodic investments. The higher volatility of SV is said to allow more cheaper share purchases over...
by Blue
Sun Jun 08, 2014 7:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein - Volatility Beneficial for Accumulators
Replies: 7
Views: 1227

Re: Rational Expectations Kindle

A great read! Enjoyed studying my print copy over the past couple days.
by Blue
Sun Jun 08, 2014 1:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rational Expectations Kindle
Replies: 10
Views: 1903

Re: Four Pillars Kindle Sale June 4/Rational Expectations

Ordered my copy of Rational Expectations today. Looking forward to diving into it!
by Blue
Tue Jun 03, 2014 7:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein's Four Pillars of Investing for $1.99 on June 4th!
Replies: 88
Views: 4873
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