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Re: 100% Stock Thread Collection

I have trouble understanding why those who believe 100% allocation to stocks is a good idea, wouldn't also believe that investing more than 100% would be an even better idea. So why don't we see threads advocating 105% or 110% stocks? Where is the magic in 100%? BobK This is a very good question. F...
by Blue
Tue Sep 02, 2014 9:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stock Thread Collection
Replies: 52
Views: 3034

Re: 100% Stock Thread Collection

Here's one from Feb 2009. Having a reasonable expectation of significant future portfolio contributions relatively to portfolio size has helped us maintain 100% stock since mid '90's. Also, diversifying across factors and geographies within 100% stock has been helpful. http://www.bogleheads.org/foru...
by Blue
Mon Sep 01, 2014 2:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stock Thread Collection
Replies: 52
Views: 3034

Re: Give Your Portfolio Room To Maneuver-DFA/Bridgeway

The balanced fund has higher size and value loads than the barbell approach. Why does the author not address how this impacts the three year performance difference in his analysis? Why doesn't the difference in load factors explain the performance difference?
by Blue
Sat Aug 23, 2014 5:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Give Your Portfolio Room To Maneuver-DFA/Bridgeway
Replies: 13
Views: 1700

Re: I need "Ultra High Net Worth" investing advice please

At this level of assets, you are eligible for flagship select service at Vanguard which should provide quite a bit of hand holding if you want it. That said, I've never been impressed that the principles needed to manage an eight figure portfolio are that much different than a seven or six figure po...
by Blue
Sat Aug 23, 2014 3:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I need "Ultra High Net Worth" investing advice please
Replies: 215
Views: 15351

Re: An Honest Stock Market Update - A good laugh

Very humorous article.
by Blue
Mon Aug 18, 2014 8:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An Honest Stock Market Update - A good laugh
Replies: 17
Views: 2898

Re: Bankrolled Her Brother, Regrets It (article)

It's pretty cool though that the niece has an iphone 6 before it's even been released. :shock:

Maybe the brother has an uber secret important job at apple :D
by Blue
Mon Aug 18, 2014 8:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bankrolled Her Brother, Regrets It (article)
Replies: 24
Views: 3935

Re: Arnott's/RAFI 10 year 'expected' returns

FWIW, I'll post the fundamental value for a few Vanguard funds. The fundamental value (as I'm using the term) is the result of (1) dividing each of the other four valuations measures by the valuation for the total market and (2) averaging the result. This way of doing things lets us express valuati...
by Blue
Sun Aug 03, 2014 5:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Arnott's/RAFI 10 year 'expected' returns
Replies: 78
Views: 4702

Re: MOM faltering? [Momentum]

In the theme of a total portfolio loading of zero momentum rather than negative momentum, I notice Vanguard and DFA's small cap value funds both load essentially zero on momentum on regressions over the past five years ( link ) Going back farther on the starting date for regressions using the same s...
by Blue
Thu Jul 31, 2014 8:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MOM faltering? [Momentum]
Replies: 94
Views: 6174

Re: MOM faltering? [Momentum]

If a momentum premium is large, persistent, and pervasive, and the concept so well known for decades, where are the active managers/traders who have found success with outperformance? Keep in mind many of them would have kept the outperformance for themselves in the form of fees. Note that Bogle ha...
by Blue
Thu Jul 31, 2014 6:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MOM faltering? [Momentum]
Replies: 94
Views: 6174

Re: MOM faltering? [Momentum]

If a momentum premium is large, persistent, and pervasive, and the concept so well known for decades, where are the active managers/traders who have found success with outperformance?
by Blue
Thu Jul 31, 2014 3:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MOM faltering? [Momentum]
Replies: 94
Views: 6174

Re: Ode to Nisiprius, investing, AA, and, other life choices

Considerable wisdom in this. I always love reading posts by Nisi
by Blue
Mon Jul 28, 2014 9:26 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Ode to Nisiprius, investing, AA, and, other life choices.
Replies: 6
Views: 1301

Re: 529 - in-state only up to deduction amount?

This is what we do. In-state to max state benefit then amounts above this go to the Utah plan.
by Blue
Mon Jul 28, 2014 9:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 529 - in-state only up to deduction amount?
Replies: 9
Views: 637

Re: Portfolio review

I probably didn't read closely enough, but why do you have 20% of your current investments in cash "for investing"? I notice a relatively low portfolio value relative to anticipated future portfolio contributions. Usually this means recent flux in income and paying off of student loans and...
by Blue
Fri Jul 25, 2014 6:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio review
Replies: 20
Views: 1997

Re: Momentum Investing ?

The story about long momentum is that costs of implementation used to be high, but now are cheap. So you have a story of why long momentum wasn't arbitraged away in the 70s, but no reason to think it can't be arbitraged away today. So if you're betting on a premium that you think will eventually di...
by Blue
Tue Jul 22, 2014 7:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum Investing ?
Replies: 55
Views: 4507

Re: a close look at value and momentum

Again its a personal choice on what actions, if any, we should take. Personally, I have no problem with someone holding a (world) market index fund as their only stock holding, just as I don't have an issue with someone holding the iShares MSCI USA Momentum fund. I can see a rationale for either. T...
by Blue
Sun Jul 20, 2014 7:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a close look at value and momentum
Replies: 259
Views: 17964

Re: If no access to DFA, Small Value worth it?

Blue Don't know how you calculated the expected returns but don't see how it can be correct as the Bridgeway fund is MUCH Smaller (and much deeper value metrics once look beyond BTm) One issue might be that your calculations look at value solely through BtM metric---which is what DFA fund does in s...
by Blue
Sat Jul 19, 2014 2:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If no access to DFA, Small Value worth it?
Replies: 20
Views: 2501

Re: If no access to DFA, Small Value worth it?

Thanks for all the replies here. The link from Alec (very helpful) and comments from Kevin M, Nisi, and Larry lead me to think that doing what I'm doing is just fine, esp for a satisficer like me. Maybe when I retire I'll decide to use a DFA advisor and get access to those funds. To know whether to...
by Blue
Sat Jul 19, 2014 1:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If no access to DFA, Small Value worth it?
Replies: 20
Views: 2501

Re: a close look at value and momentum

Larry - really curious what your thoughts are on this question and wanted to make sure it wasn't lost in this very informative and long thread. Larry, With a factor like momentum where there is a less convincing reason for it to persist, how long do reasonable investors stay the course in a hypothet...
by Blue
Fri Jul 18, 2014 11:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a close look at value and momentum
Replies: 259
Views: 17964

Re: a close look at value and momentum

Larry, With a factor like momentum where there is a less convincing reason for it to persist, how long do reasonable investors stay the course in a hypothetical future period of prolonged momentum underperformance? In a period of prolonged momentum underperformance, what would influence you to eithe...
by Blue
Thu Jul 17, 2014 10:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a close look at value and momentum
Replies: 259
Views: 17964

Re: Financial Times Article on Vanguard.

This quote stood out to me, Indeed, Fidelity has had net outflows so far this year, of $3.5bn (to end June, according to Morningstar data), against Vanguard’s $64.8bn inflows. JPMorgan, with $14.7bn of new money, is next in line, while Dimensional Fund Advisors is third with $14.5bn. Vanguard's appr...
by Blue
Mon Jul 14, 2014 7:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial Times Article on Vanguard.
Replies: 12
Views: 2707

Re: A Look at Current P/E Ratios

The past 3, 5, and 10 year returns do not support SV being the next '99 tech stock fad. Comparing returns of Vanguard's SCV fund VISVX to Vanguard's TSM VTSMX according to M*; VISVX (SCV) vs VTSMX (TSM) 3 yr return: 16.1% vs 16.3% VISVX (SCV) vs VTSMX (TSM) 5 yr return: 22.9% vs 20.4% VISVX (SCV) vs...
by Blue
Sat Jul 12, 2014 9:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Look at Current P/E Ratios
Replies: 54
Views: 6616

Re: High end purses

My wife and many female acquaintances vouch for the coach outlet store near us. I splurged one year as a gift for a Louis bag from Saks, my wife returned it saying it was too much. We some time later did purchase one that she ultimately enjoyed at a "somewhat more reasonable price". One of...
by Blue
Fri Jul 11, 2014 11:26 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: High end purses
Replies: 119
Views: 12681

Re: "Being Done" Saving: White Coat Investor blog post

How does one individual contribute max to two separate 401k's in the same year?
by Blue
Fri Jun 27, 2014 7:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Being Done" Saving: White Coat Investor blog post
Replies: 47
Views: 7828

Re: Why Asset Allocate/ Slice and Dice

Beyond the usual arguments, I thought Bill Bernstein made an intriguing point in his latest book about the additional volatility of small-value being worth an additional 60 bps to the periodic investor. Increased volatility allows the accumulator to buy more at deeper, more frequent lows.
by Blue
Tue Jun 24, 2014 10:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Asset Allocate/ Slice and Dice
Replies: 37
Views: 2112

Re: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns

Reasonable to me, while recognizing he could be completely off. Naturally these are just midpoints of estimated ranges and even then the true values could fall outside of the ranges. That said, in November 2013 I dumped 90% of my small/value US tilt and bought international with all of it, especial...
by Blue
Tue Jun 10, 2014 6:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns [1.4% for 60/40]
Replies: 207
Views: 17520

Re: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns

Reasonable to me, while recognizing he could be completely off. Naturally these are just midpoints of estimated ranges and even then the true values could fall outside of the ranges. That said, in November 2013 I dumped 90% of my small/value US tilt and bought international with all of it, especial...
by Blue
Tue Jun 10, 2014 5:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns [1.4% for 60/40]
Replies: 207
Views: 17520

Re: GMO's 7 year predictions

Ed,

Nice paper. I'm curious how much of the outperformance of "top 3 fund portfolio" vs "normal diversified portfolio" is due to size factor and emerging market tilts/risks rather than demonstrating any predictive ability?
by Blue
Mon Jun 09, 2014 9:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GMO's 7 year predictions
Replies: 6
Views: 1223

Re: Bernstein - Volatility Beneficial for Accumulators

Doesn't this only work if you assume mean reversion and fix the end point of the asset? If the asset has a unit root, then volatility only hurts; it never helps. Even with DCA. Interesting reading you linked on unit root. Bernstein makes the point in the book (pg 64) that statistically significant ...
by Blue
Mon Jun 09, 2014 7:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein - Volatility Beneficial for Accumulators
Replies: 7
Views: 1218

Bernstein - Volatility Beneficial for Accumulators

In Bernstein's recently published book Rational Expectations, the point is made that SV would have to underperform SP500 by 0.64% or more before it "loses" for the accumulator who is making periodic investments. The higher volatility of SV is said to allow more cheaper share purchases over...
by Blue
Sun Jun 08, 2014 7:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein - Volatility Beneficial for Accumulators
Replies: 7
Views: 1218

Re: Rational Expectations Kindle

A great read! Enjoyed studying my print copy over the past couple days.
by Blue
Sun Jun 08, 2014 1:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rational Expectations Kindle
Replies: 10
Views: 1866

Re: Four Pillars Kindle Sale June 4/Rational Expectations

Ordered my copy of Rational Expectations today. Looking forward to diving into it!
by Blue
Tue Jun 03, 2014 7:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein's Four Pillars of Investing for $1.99 on June 4th!
Replies: 88
Views: 4794

Re: Prof Andrew Ang - Factor Investing Textbook Online

Amazon currently has the truncated kindle ebook of Ilmanen's Expected Returns for free FYI.

http://www.amazon.com/Expected-Returns- ... ed+returns
by Blue
Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Prof Andrew Ang - Factor Investing Textbook Online
Replies: 9
Views: 1179

Re: Vanguard or DFA? "Vanguard, in a landslide..."

I was a DIY all vanguard portfolio for about 10 years. Then I changed to an all DFA portfolio through an advisor. I read these DFA v. VG comparisons and felt they were all a bit lacking. I think this is especially true for the taxable investor. There are differences that are hard to measure I think...
by Blue
Sat May 31, 2014 9:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard or DFA? "Vanguard, in a landslide..."
Replies: 54
Views: 4720

Re: How diversified is the Larry Portfolio

I like having some large growth stocks/SP500 in my portfolio because the fed cares about its performance. The SP500 has the luxury of the Fed put. Not sure the same is true for small value performance.
by Blue
Tue May 27, 2014 9:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How diversified is the Larry Portfolio
Replies: 40
Views: 3405

Re: Factoring TLH Into Decision Whether To Use An Advisor

I noticed that Vanguard now gives lot details and gain/loss per lot in the online account information - which I think makes tax loss harvesting much easier than it was before. On one account page, I can quickly see if there are any losses (in red) and the amount of loss that could be harvested. Bef...
by Blue
Wed May 21, 2014 9:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factoring TLH Into Decision Whether To Use An Advisor
Replies: 34
Views: 1304

Re: Factoring TLH Into Decision Whether To Use An Advisor

I noticed that Vanguard now gives lot details and gain/loss per lot in the online account information - which I think makes tax loss harvesting much easier than it was before. On one account page, I can quickly see if there are any losses (in red) and the amount of loss that could be harvested. Befo...
by Blue
Wed May 21, 2014 9:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factoring TLH Into Decision Whether To Use An Advisor
Replies: 34
Views: 1304

Re: DFA Core-- Why bother with bottom 1000 names?

Migration by Fama paper - it's a lottery effect. A few will have outsized gains as they migrate from small value to large growth.
by Blue
Tue May 20, 2014 9:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA Core-- Why bother with bottom 1000 names?
Replies: 19
Views: 1656

Re: The New Swedroe Book Has Arrived!

An excellent read as usual. Kudos Larry on yet another great book.
by Blue
Fri May 16, 2014 8:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The New Swedroe Book Has Arrived!
Replies: 22
Views: 3474

Re: What our company's 401k Advisor said about 1.5% Fees

We shopped this a few years back when our plan was between $2 and $3 MM with ~ 75 participants (now closer to $5MM). At that time, we found a local independent RIA to be fiduciary for 25 bps and a local TPA with their record keeper for about 25 bps and have an array of signal and admiral class share...
by Blue
Tue May 06, 2014 6:41 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What our company's 401k Advisor said about 1.5% Fees
Replies: 113
Views: 15278

Re: 401k Benchmarks

Fixed this for you, So we have a 2 employee (soon to be 4) employee plan with a safe harbor match, and it has nearly $1M in assets. Now we offer Vanguard Signal class (soon to be admiral) funds AT the VG expense ratio and cover all fees. Costs us about $2-3K/year at Online 401K. I don't view that as...
by Blue
Sat May 03, 2014 9:23 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 401k Benchmarks
Replies: 27
Views: 5991

Re: 401k Benchmarks

There is nothing in ERISA that even arguably requires you to offer actively-managed funds in a retirement plan. That's salesman BS. There are other ways to reduce possible liability. Some plans, such as most 401(k) and profit sharing plans, can be set up to give participants control over the invest...
by Blue
Fri May 02, 2014 3:08 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 401k Benchmarks
Replies: 27
Views: 5991

Re: 401k Benchmarks

The Dir of HR wants every conceivable service, including face-to-face financial counseling, fiduciary support, annual benchmarking, etc. She feels strongly that these services are required by the ERISA/EBSA regulations and since our employer is unwilling to pay for them, she wants us to foot the bi...
by Blue
Fri May 02, 2014 6:30 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 401k Benchmarks
Replies: 27
Views: 5991

Re: Fama/French Factors: "A Come-to-Buffet Moment" (from M*)

The new model, which I wrote about while ago is known as the q factor model, using four factors of beta, size, investment and profitability. The investment factor is highly correlated with value factor and profitability highly correlated with MOM. Best wishes Larry Are these correlations stable (i....
by Blue
Tue Apr 29, 2014 9:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fama/French Factors: "A Come-to-Buffet Moment" (from M*)
Replies: 74
Views: 4773

Re: Higher Risk, Higher Rewards than a Stock Index Fund

I'd recommend you read Swedroe's Alternative Investments book (http://www.amazon.com/Only-Guide-Altern ... 1576603105)

Collateralized Commodity Funds
Timber
Hedge funds/Fund of Funds

All have significant detractions that explain why many (most) of us aren't in them.
by Blue
Sat Apr 26, 2014 10:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Higher Risk, Higher Rewards than a Stock Index Fund
Replies: 50
Views: 12081

Re: Advice for [Religious Investor]

Would mention zero coupon bonds to your friend.
by Blue
Fri Apr 25, 2014 11:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice [on Shariah compliant investment products]
Replies: 60
Views: 6607

Re: 401k Benchmarks

Interesting question, curious what answers you'll get.

My guess is 55 bps for your plan is cheaper than average for a plan of this size.
by Blue
Fri Apr 25, 2014 9:52 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 401k Benchmarks
Replies: 27
Views: 5991

Re: Warren Buffett

With that kind of ability to generate alpha, you should start a hedge fund and charge 2 and 20.
by Blue
Mon Apr 21, 2014 11:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett
Replies: 45
Views: 3490

Re: paydown strategy for mortgage

It sounds good, except you have not, today, saved that $200k+ per year x 20 years. You only have the plan to save that money. Things happen. Illness/disability, layoffs, structural economic change impacting job compensation or security, ill parents... stuff. Liquidity is worth nothing until you nee...
by Blue
Sun Apr 20, 2014 6:09 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: paydown strategy for mortgage
Replies: 40
Views: 3938

Re: Can I get some alpha? (DFA / Wealthfront)

I think very highly of DFA as it is now. I worry about what it could become when David Booth cashes out and there is a new owner who is looking for return on their investment/purchase *from* DFA investors. With a large taxable account, an investor has to consider comfort level with the investment bo...
by Blue
Sat Apr 12, 2014 3:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can I get some alpha? (DFA / Wealthfront)
Replies: 58
Views: 3543
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