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Re: TLH: Use ETF to gauge fund close?

Another issue is to watch the NAV move of the ETF v the price move as a big change in the premium or discount can give you the impression the MF share class would move in a similar way / with similar magnitude but may not. Thus you get a false impression of the MF NAV close but were really just wat...
by BBL
Tue Dec 23, 2014 7:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TLH: Use ETF to gauge fund close?
Replies: 7
Views: 611

Re: TLH: Use ETF to gauge fund close?

BE CAREFUL! Today many of Vanguard's ETFs went ex-dividend, so if there is a price drop today, it may not be from market action. Yeah. Depending on your data source you can be getting mixed information. VG accounts for the dividend in their reported pricing while, say, Morningstar does not. So you ...
by BBL
Mon Dec 22, 2014 3:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TLH: Use ETF to gauge fund close?
Replies: 7
Views: 611

Re: What are your 2015 Financial Goals?

Don't risk money I'd like to keep to make money I don't need.
by BBL
Mon Dec 22, 2014 10:24 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are your 2015 Financial Goals?
Replies: 102
Views: 8328

Re: Vanguard white papers, how are they distributed?

livesoft wrote:I came across a link to another useful Vanguard white paper this past week.

Which one? I don't want to be missing any gems either. Thanks.
by BBL
Sun Dec 21, 2014 8:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard white papers, how are they distributed?
Replies: 6
Views: 1010

Re: Vanguard white papers, how are they distributed?

I feel like I might be missing some more gems. The Financial Advisors' site is very useful as well. You can perform searches or dig around the drop-down menus. You don't need to be registered for most of this content - white papers, etc. Enjoy. Link: https://advisors.vanguard.com/VGApp/iip/site/adv...
by BBL
Sun Dec 21, 2014 8:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard white papers, how are they distributed?
Replies: 6
Views: 1010

Re: handling large market drops

MichaelU wrote:Wondering if there is a way to take advantage of large market drops

If you were in the US: TLH if you have a taxable account. Maybe this isn't applicable in Australia - I know nothing about the tax system in your country.
by BBL
Sat Dec 20, 2014 11:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: handling large market drops
Replies: 17
Views: 1837

Re: When do dividends post to Vanguard accounts?

bertilak wrote:Yeah. My edited update to the post crossed your post in the ether!

He He - that happens. Glad you didn't have a real problem. OT - I like the hat
by BBL
Sat Dec 20, 2014 10:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When do dividends post to Vanguard accounts?
Replies: 13
Views: 1385

Re: When do dividends post to Vanguard accounts?

Getting cash is a one-step process; reinvesting a two-step process with getting the cash as the first step. I guess that is a naive way to look at it. Think of that in reverse. The fund already has the cash; it is easier/faster for them to transform your proportionate share of that cash into more s...
by BBL
Sat Dec 20, 2014 10:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When do dividends post to Vanguard accounts?
Replies: 13
Views: 1385

Re: When do dividends post to Vanguard accounts?

bertilak wrote:Does Vanguard have a different schedule for dividends in taxable vs. tax-advantaged accounts?

No, however the reinvest date and the payable date are one business day apart. Did you reinvest in tax advantaged and elect otherwise in taxable? Reinvest was 12/19; payable 12/22 for VTSAX
by BBL
Sat Dec 20, 2014 9:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When do dividends post to Vanguard accounts?
Replies: 13
Views: 1385

Re: CFP Education - College for FP vs. American College?

FWIW I took the CFP education component several years ago just for the fun of it. I went through Kansas State (online) and it took 14 months - 6 classes in consecutive order. Back then the whole thing - tuition/books/fees ran me about 10K total. When you finish you get an 18 hour grad certificate an...
by BBL
Fri Dec 19, 2014 7:36 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: CFP Education - College for FP vs. American College?
Replies: 4
Views: 696

Re: Effect of 0.79 correlation: fantasy vs. reality

Yes, I would be interested in a zero variance portfolio (of course) .... but am perplexed by how a 1.0 correlation could lead to that ... Two perfectly positively correlated risky assets - not a very realistic premise of course but assuming so... Well, I doubt I could lay-out the math as well as Mr...
by BBL
Thu Dec 18, 2014 10:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Effect of 0.79 correlation: fantasy vs. reality
Replies: 58
Views: 4969

Re: Effect of 0.79 correlation: fantasy vs. reality

TLT had a correlation of .98 to EDV in the last 36 months but the CAGR for EDV was 6.2 while for TLT it was 4.4. …And despite the added volatility EDV had a higher Sharpe… One asset can be perfectly positively correlated to another and offer a higher risk adjusted return over a given period. As this...
by BBL
Thu Dec 18, 2014 9:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Effect of 0.79 correlation: fantasy vs. reality
Replies: 58
Views: 4969

Re: First time TLH harvester - help please

looks like I screwed myself out of the 2014 tax loss by making my 12/12 automatic investment of $4500? At least as I am interpreting the wash sale rules (buying 30 days before selling at a loss)... So basically if I want to I can wait until after 1/12/15 and then sell at the loss and do the TLH for...
by BBL
Wed Dec 17, 2014 12:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First time TLH harvester - help please
Replies: 13
Views: 551

Re: First time TLH harvester - help please

glosing wrote:Also not sure if it matters but I bought $4500 of VTIAX on 12/12. The rest was purchased before 10/24/2014-11/14/2014. Thanks.


Doesn't matter. As long as you: Exchange 100% > New Fund > VFWAX.

Don't buy VTIAX/VTI (I meant VXUS, of course) for 31 days.
by BBL
Wed Dec 17, 2014 11:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First time TLH harvester - help please
Replies: 13
Views: 551

Re: First time TLH harvester - help please

The dividend thing: The record date for VTIAX (and VFWAX) is 12/18. If you TLH now, no problem. You'll get the VFWAX div. You'll need to hold that lot for over 60 days for the qualified portion of that dividend to remain so as pertains to you. IOW you will get the preferential qualified dividend tax...
by BBL
Wed Dec 17, 2014 11:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First time TLH harvester - help please
Replies: 13
Views: 551

Re: VWO seems cheap right now

Jfet wrote:Oh this thread is still around. I looked at VWO today and see it is $38. Full circle.


The dumpster fire may not be out but it is momentarily contained - like subprime in '07 perhaps? We shall see. I hope you TLH'd that IEMG back to VWO as opportunity allowed.
by BBL
Tue Dec 16, 2014 12:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO seems cheap right now
Replies: 143
Views: 18836

Re: TLH question

I TLH'd some VTIAX to VFWAX yesterday and the close was low enough for a few new lots to identify themselves. So, I was going to do that today, similar to what you are planning, and then I pulled up VXUS to see what the deal was and.... Never mind - for now at least.
by BBL
Tue Dec 16, 2014 11:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TLH question
Replies: 6
Views: 703

Re: Marketcap vs. FACTOR indexing

Ever seen this? It will give you an idea of where I'm coming from. http://investmentadvisorottawa.com/wp-content/themes/mullins/pdf/SinquefieldWherearethegainsfromIntlDiversification.pdf This was the first non-academic, practical investing publication I read that put the idea of investing from a fac...
by BBL
Tue Dec 16, 2014 7:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Marketcap vs. FACTOR indexing
Replies: 15
Views: 1636

Re: Marketcap vs. FACTOR indexing

I'm not an expert. I'm not on the leading edge of late-breaking financial innovation. That said, I never knew volatility to be classified as a factor. That's more of an objective which requires trade-offs to achieve - maybe worth it; maybe not. Maybe I'm missing something but Beta, SmL, HmL, Mom and...
by BBL
Tue Dec 16, 2014 7:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Marketcap vs. FACTOR indexing
Replies: 15
Views: 1636

Re: VWO seems cheap right now

market timer wrote:S&P futures are actually up from Friday's close..


I've been observing Z14 & H15 on globex - up and climbing this morning. Z14 From +12 to + 15.25 last I looked. More news no Boglehead can use I guess....
by BBL
Mon Dec 15, 2014 9:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO seems cheap right now
Replies: 143
Views: 18836

Re: VWO seems cheap right now

sperry8 wrote:Lots of issues in EM right now...

No free cheese.
by BBL
Sun Dec 14, 2014 9:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO seems cheap right now
Replies: 143
Views: 18836

Re: 'Ignore John Bogle and dump your S&P 500 index fund" Art

That "roach motel" effect is, of course, exactly the same effect that another faction presents as "the solid dividend-paying blue-chip stocks of great American companies that will always be there and will never let you down." Naturally. Each faction frames it in a manner support...
by BBL
Fri Dec 12, 2014 7:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Ignore John Bogle and dump your S&P 500 index fund" Article
Replies: 16
Views: 3406

Re: 'Ignore John Bogle and dump your S&P 500 index fund" Art

As an aside, I think equal-weighting is logically total nonsense because there is an insoluble logical question about where to stop. Yes. An individual investor attempting to equal-weight all of the securities in a given universe is beyond impractical. All you really get is a size tilt (and sector ...
by BBL
Fri Dec 12, 2014 7:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Ignore John Bogle and dump your S&P 500 index fund" Article
Replies: 16
Views: 3406

Re: Don't Peek

Dandy wrote:But, I think that the seemingly off the cuff advice of not looking at your 401k balance for --- years, until you retire etc is bad advice.

Who proffers that advice?

EDIT: Never mind. I assume you're referring to that statement from Mr Bogle. It hadn't occurred to me that he was serious....
by BBL
Thu Dec 11, 2014 8:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't Peek [at Your Portfolio Balance]
Replies: 33
Views: 3972

Re: Don't Peek

How many Bogleheads follow this advice. I wish I could but my OCD prevents me from doing so . I think for a passive investor it is a great Bogle rule. For the new year I'm going to try and adopt this rule and I hope when I'm ready for retirement I fall off my chair like Jack says. For me it depends...
by BBL
Thu Dec 11, 2014 7:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't Peek [at Your Portfolio Balance]
Replies: 33
Views: 3972

Re: Vanguard Wish List

I would like to have Vanguard combine the Total International Fund with the FTSE All-World Ex-US Fund (adding the latter to the former). There's just no reason to have both of these funds in the Vanguard family. Hold up there, Hoss. Folks need some tax-loss harvesting pairs. Also some folks would l...
by BBL
Thu Dec 11, 2014 6:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Wish List
Replies: 44
Views: 3139

Re: Why don't YOU follow Buffett's advice?

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Yes, size matters.
by BBL
Wed Dec 10, 2014 2:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't YOU follow Buffett's advice?
Replies: 114
Views: 9053

Re: What's wrong with VTIAX?

riptide wrote:I have no idea what Tax Loss Harvesting is.

https://advisors.vanguard.com/iwe/pdf/I ... omain=true
by BBL
Wed Dec 10, 2014 11:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's wrong with VTIAX?
Replies: 63
Views: 7954

Re: What is your opinion about "tilting?"

Proponents of tilting have said that VISVX is neither small or valuey enough to capture the premium. That is a fine response, however, I become confused when people continue to use those funds to tilt. What are you trying to accomplish when you go against the advice of the very academics who are ad...
by BBL
Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your opinion about "tilting?"
Replies: 116
Views: 9467

Re: What's wrong with VTIAX?

I am sick of my VTIAX , it is the only index fund that has unrecognized losses this year for thousands. I consistently has gone down since I've owned it. I have read the debate on here in reference to international funds being necessary or not. I compared the 3 year , 5 year, and 10 year for intern...
by BBL
Wed Dec 10, 2014 9:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's wrong with VTIAX?
Replies: 63
Views: 7954

Re: What is your opinion about "tilting?"

In this arena of the investing world I’m mostly a Larry Swedroe guy. Take that for what it’s worth. I would hold a reasonably close approximation of ‘the Larry’ if I didn’t have constrains preventing me from doing so (I was too far down the road when I learned of it). In my equity portfolio I curren...
by BBL
Wed Dec 10, 2014 7:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your opinion about "tilting?"
Replies: 116
Views: 9467

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Browser wrote:Oh, the horror! That 0.8% loss puts me on foodstamps.


Not so fast. NQZ already in the green.

But just to be safe:

http://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/supplement ... ogram-snap
by BBL
Tue Dec 09, 2014 1:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1195
Views: 222514

Re: International in Taxable - Advantage?

And TLH.

Most of my 2013 TLH was international. All of my 2014 TLH was international.

Having a stockpile of carryovers allows flexibility to rebalance when you have a large taxable portfolio and of course the deduction each year doesn't hurt.
by BBL
Tue Dec 09, 2014 6:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International in Taxable - Advantage?
Replies: 8
Views: 1136

Re: Why have more US than Intl Market Index?

Yep, many years ago, there were even arguments to have higher than market weight in international, since our human capital and bonds is tied to domestic. Bogle's opinion on international was becoming unpopular back then, and now his quotes and views on international are quoted on several threads ne...
by BBL
Mon Dec 08, 2014 1:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why have more US than Intl Market Index?
Replies: 65
Views: 4371

Re: Why have more US than Intl Market Index?

Are there any Americans who have more than 50% of equities in International Funds? And for those who don't - why not? It is my understanding that the US Markets make up roughly 40% of the World market cap, so why not have closer to a 60/40 split with the 40 being US? I assume there are reasons and ...
by BBL
Mon Dec 08, 2014 7:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why have more US than Intl Market Index?
Replies: 65
Views: 4371

Re: What is Defensive Investing Strategy?

Your description of defensive sounds a bit like the profitability factor. They go long profitable companies and short the less profitable ones? Dave I think they would say that because they expect high quality, which includes profitability among other measures of quality, to offer higher risk adjus...
by BBL
Tue Dec 02, 2014 11:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Defensive Investing Strategy?
Replies: 9
Views: 992

Re: What is Defensive Investing Strategy?

Is it related to volatility? Essentially yes. AQR's [equity] philosophy, as I understand it, is that low beta tends to reflect the quality measures they find meaningful - low leverage, high profitability, stable, less EPS fluctuation, etc. So, low beta stocks tend to reflect the quality measures th...
by BBL
Tue Dec 02, 2014 10:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Defensive Investing Strategy?
Replies: 9
Views: 992

Re: My 2015 ETF IRA purchase date: 30 DEC 2014

tyler - you're welcome If you are pushing it, why not push all the way? If you like a wider margin, what's another day, or two, or three? Although no so in 2014, when the first trading day of the year is an up day and you will see many comments in threads in this forum lamenting the fact that they m...
by BBL
Wed Nov 19, 2014 6:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My 2015 ETF IRA purchase date: 30 DEC 2014
Replies: 3
Views: 1043

My 2015 ETF IRA purchase date: 30 DEC 2014

Be advised: I’m presenting this strategy (again) for that small population of posters & lurkers who will find this potentially actionable. If you’re big on the ‘time in market’ concept then here are, potentially, a couple of extra days for you to enjoy. This is minutia in the extreme . You have ...
by BBL
Tue Nov 18, 2014 8:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My 2015 ETF IRA purchase date: 30 DEC 2014
Replies: 3
Views: 1043

Re: Vanguard ETF vs. Mutual Fund when expenses equal

For TLH purposes the frequent trading restrictions on the MF share class can be an annoyance. Mr.Bogle often brings up the fact that ETF's are designed for "trading", and may lure some people into more trading than they might do otherwise. He's expressed that opinion many times. Vanguard c...
by BBL
Fri Nov 14, 2014 9:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard ETF vs. Mutual Fund when expenses equal
Replies: 27
Views: 2087

Re: Should I avoid buying Vanguard ETFs?

Comments in this thread appear to suggest that a fund lacking the ETF share class has no method available to avoid taking gains due to redemptions. That isn’t the case. In-kind is helpful in tax management across the portfolio and its use is substantially enhanced by the ETF share class; yet it isn’...
by BBL
Thu Nov 13, 2014 8:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I avoid buying Vanguard ETFs?
Replies: 12
Views: 1668

Re: Cash - Throw it on the table!

More than 15Y expenses in cash equivalents as defined by the OP.
by BBL
Wed Nov 05, 2014 10:38 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cash - Throw it all on the table!!!
Replies: 51
Views: 3978

Re: Market return and elections

My father-in-law was a big believer in market cycles being related to elections. ...he specifically believed that the first two years after a presidential cycle election, the market was lousy. He also believed that the market did well after a mid-term election. So, what do you think about this? Wha...
by BBL
Wed Nov 05, 2014 9:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market return and elections
Replies: 7
Views: 943

Re: Small Cap Tilting

Although we have probably provided some interesting information (or at least our takes on it) I doubt that continuing this is all that productive or valuable so I’ll give it a rest after this post. It doesn't seem to effect composition or performance hardly at all. They're good at it. If they weren'...
by BBL
Wed Mar 12, 2014 7:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Tilting
Replies: 84
Views: 9689

Re: Small Cap Tilting

To be fair, VTMSX has had as much historical variability in its factor loads as NAESX/VSMAX, over time, despite tracking a single index. Perhaps the differences over time have more to do with shifts in the market in general. That being said (and this is an honest question to which I feel perplexed ...
by BBL
Tue Mar 11, 2014 7:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Tilting
Replies: 84
Views: 9689

Re: Small Cap Tilting

Returns matter since we don't invest - at least no one I know - just to practice how to run factor loadings. I also don't see a glaring difference in return . VTMSX has taken less of a beating in declines, but lower increase in a rebound (2002/03, 2008/09, 2011/12). ** VSMAX inception 11/13/2000 VT...
by BBL
Mon Mar 10, 2014 9:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Tilting
Replies: 84
Views: 9689

Re: Small Cap Tilting

The investor that is targeting particular factor loads for their porfolio, within practical and individual constraints, would be wise to consider VTMSX as an instrument that can give them exposure to the smaller deciles that VSMAX doesn't. The investor may even use a combination of the two depending...
by BBL
Sat Mar 08, 2014 9:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Tilting
Replies: 84
Views: 9689

Re: IJS bid/ask

After hours quotes aren't useful. If you look at morningstar right now it shows bid 109.61/ask 300.00. If you want to buy it look about 60-90 minutes into the next trading day and you will see something much more realistic. on 03/06 the last trade was 114.25, the NAV was 114.17, the mid point was 11...
by BBL
Fri Mar 07, 2014 6:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: IJS bid/ask
Replies: 4
Views: 269

Re: Small Cap Tilting

I'm not sure why a tracking-index change would be an additional risk Different targets have different factor exposures and a mid course change from one to the other will result in factor exposure changes for the index investor and that adds an element of luck into the equation from the transitional...
by BBL
Fri Mar 07, 2014 7:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Tilting
Replies: 84
Views: 9689

Re: Small Cap Tilting

The last post of the thread also points out that NAESX has had five different incarnations, starting as an active fund in 1960, becoming a Vanguard active fund in 1989, later tracking the Russell 2000, then the MSCI, now the CRSP. So, as I've been saying, the history of its past returns in a bit of...
by BBL
Fri Mar 07, 2014 7:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Tilting
Replies: 84
Views: 9689
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