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Re: investing during retirment

Cash buffer makes a lot of sense I have never thought of that , thank you. Maybe the wrong thread, but how did retirees handle the draw down in 2009 or so , it took me maybe 4 years to break even with my vanguard funds, so I would need an extra large buffer to handle those large down years Thank yo...
by Aptenodytes
Thu Oct 23, 2014 1:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: investing during retirment
Replies: 20
Views: 1831

Re: How to buy oil in the stock market?

At the risk of appearing overly snarky, do you really think that someone who doesn't know how to look things up on Google should be doing something like speculating on the direction of oil prices? I don't think it's that easy, at least if the goal is to "invest" in the spot price. Nothing...
by Aptenodytes
Thu Oct 23, 2014 12:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to buy oil in the stock market?
Replies: 32
Views: 1702

Re: investing during retirment

I'm not aware of any limits on how often or how much you can withdraw from a Vanguard fund. If you want feedback on your post-retirement AA you'll need to post the AA and indicate what your concerns are. If you want advice on how best to get money from your portfolio into your bank account, you'll n...
by Aptenodytes
Thu Oct 23, 2014 12:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: investing during retirment
Replies: 20
Views: 1831

Re: Loaning money to invest?

A mega-wealthy person with income security is probably fine doing what you propose. Around $500K in income, no debt, I see no problem paying 3% to invest for the long term. I also see no need to do so, but if you like to aim for the stars, why not. Unless you are going through mental accounting gyra...
by Aptenodytes
Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Loaning money to invest?
Replies: 13
Views: 1191

Re: How to buy oil in the stock market?

At the risk of appearing overly snarky, do you really think that someone who doesn't know how to look things up on Google should be doing something like speculating on the direction of oil prices?
by Aptenodytes
Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to buy oil in the stock market?
Replies: 32
Views: 1702

Re: Electricity Adaptor for Europe

Camera and laptop power supplies will run on 220v. You just need the plug converters.
by Aptenodytes
Tue Oct 21, 2014 12:27 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Electricity Adaptor for Europe
Replies: 10
Views: 611

Re: Help me choose... [Retirement withdrawal strategy]

You seem to commingling AA and withdrawal questions, but not consistently. I suggest you sharpen your questions to help clarify what you need to decide. Regarding the AA, high SPIAs mean you probably want a higher stock percentage to offset inflation risk, compared to what you'd want without the SPI...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Oct 20, 2014 11:46 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help me choose... [Retirement withdrawal strategy]
Replies: 12
Views: 1269

Re: Why do people use age instead of life expectancy?

Professor Emeritus, I'm not a distinguished former professor. I'm just a simple guy holding an eight-figure portfolio. My best advice to you on this particular argument: Quit while you're behind. Dognose, you must be more observant than I am -- I can't tell what the OP is advocating for, so I can't...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Oct 20, 2014 9:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people use age instead of life expectancy?
Replies: 43
Views: 2912

Re: Individual Bonds versus Bond Funds - Again

Hi kenner, This excerpt, that the authors states without explanation, counters your argument. Depending on how significant the redemptions are, they may have to sell off their highest-yielding bonds and replace them with those offering a lower yield, or assume more risk to obtain the same return. I...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Oct 20, 2014 9:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Individual Bonds versus Bond Funds - Again
Replies: 17
Views: 1221

Re: Individual Bonds versus Bond Funds - Again

The article seemed wrong-headed to me. + it argues that the scenario to worry about is rates rising, shareholders divesting, fund managers selling high-rate bonds to meet liquidity needs, lowering average rate of the remaining holdings. Frankly, this seems farfetched to me. For the typical funds tha...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Oct 20, 2014 8:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Individual Bonds versus Bond Funds - Again
Replies: 17
Views: 1221

Re: Help: missed the deadline for an inherited IRA, what nex

You probably need a qualified professional to sort this out with you; some members of this forum are so qualified and might guide you. Perhaps with some hand-holding you can DIY, but inherited IRAs can be complicated and you are violation of IRS rules to boot so you need to seek out a favorable reso...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Oct 19, 2014 10:07 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help: missed the deadline for an inherited IRA, what next?
Replies: 6
Views: 681

Re: How does one hedge against deflation?

Some people are recommending getting rid of your personal debt, but that's a bad hedge. When deflation occurs, people with debt will suffer, but it doesn't follow that during current conditions someone wanting to protect against the possibility of deflation should eliminate debt. A hedge is somethin...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Oct 19, 2014 6:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does one hedge against deflation?
Replies: 52
Views: 3815

Re: WSJ's Jon Clements: "How to Make Your Savings Outlive Yo

This Web site seems to calculate, every month, an optimal allocation of TIPS ladders and DIAs consistent with the idea; the allocation varies according to market conditions. At present they recommend, for someone age 65, to use 15% of the portfolio to buy a DIA that will start generating income at ...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Oct 19, 2014 5:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ's Jon Clements: "How to Make Your Savings Outlive You"
Replies: 14
Views: 2758

Re: WSJ's Jon Clements: "How to Make Your Savings Outlive Yo

Thanks to all for the input. Thanks especially to Aptenodytes for the link to the paper and your step-by-step summary. Having now read the paper I understand their annual calculation but I did not find any suggestion of putting (exactly) "25%" of assets toward a longevity annuity. Guess t...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Oct 19, 2014 5:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ's Jon Clements: "How to Make Your Savings Outlive You"
Replies: 14
Views: 2758

Re: WSJ's Jon Clements: "How to Make Your Savings Outlive Yo

P.S. We spend our working lives intuitively adjusting our spending to our somewhat variable and unpredictable income. Nobody ever suggests running a Monte Carlo analysis of one's future earnings. Nobody ever suggests that your spending at age 25 should be governed by statistical projections of your...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Oct 19, 2014 5:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ's Jon Clements: "How to Make Your Savings Outlive You"
Replies: 14
Views: 2758

Re: WSJ's Jon Clements: "How to Make Your Savings Outlive Yo

OK, I've read the white paper. It is highly repetitive and wordy. Here's the gist. 1) The right way to think of the sustainable withdrawal problem is to conceptualize the retirement portfolio as an annuity, whether or not any literal annuities are involved. They call this a virtual annuity approach ...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Oct 19, 2014 4:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ's Jon Clements: "How to Make Your Savings Outlive You"
Replies: 14
Views: 2758

Re: WSJ's Jon Clements: "How to Make Your Savings Outlive Yo

I read Clements's article too and found it frustratingly devoid of specifics, so decided to look up the Siegel and Waring paper because I was curious what the heck the point was. This paper seems to explain things.
by Aptenodytes
Sun Oct 19, 2014 11:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ's Jon Clements: "How to Make Your Savings Outlive You"
Replies: 14
Views: 2758

Re: Can I reduce my *retirement* savings rate?

I have a quite detailed Excel Notebook which is about 10 sheets deep and includes budgets for 3 different stages in life as well as estimations of household costs, life insurance needs, etc. I use conservative ( I think), but constant, projections of 3% real growth before 67 and 2% real growth afte...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Oct 17, 2014 11:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can I reduce my *retirement* savings rate?
Replies: 35
Views: 3314

Re: Can I reduce my *retirement* savings rate?

I think you may be a victim of bucket thinking. You seem to be complicating things by putting artificial constraints around different sources of money. Focus on income and expenses. 1) First figure out how much you want to end up with when you retire. Call it your retirement portfolio goal. 2) Then ...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Oct 17, 2014 11:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can I reduce my *retirement* savings rate?
Replies: 35
Views: 3314

Re: Can I reduce my *retirement* savings rate?

It doesn't seem complicated. Lots of couples have only one bread-winner, and few of them have $550k in taxable accounts in their 30s. Your situation is really completely generic, not special. You have income, you have savings, you have expenses, you have retirement goals, you need to explore if ever...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Oct 17, 2014 11:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can I reduce my *retirement* savings rate?
Replies: 35
Views: 3314

Re: Replacing primary sump pump - how difficult

I don't find it hard, but each case is unique and you know yourself best. There are definitely mistakes one could make that would spew water into the basement. My advice is that if you aren't sure, you should hire a handyman or plumber. They can advise on the best capacity. Capacity is determined by...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Oct 17, 2014 7:33 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Replacing primary sump pump - how difficult
Replies: 18
Views: 1033

Re: Replacement for tinypic?

I like dropbox.
by Aptenodytes
Thu Oct 16, 2014 8:48 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Replacement for tinypic?
Replies: 7
Views: 385

Re: Roll Over Old TIAA CREF Account?

I personally don't see the TIAA TREA account as that unique, but I agree that it makes sense to look at the unique accounts there before rolling everything over. I had several old TIAA-CREF accounts and moved them all into Vanguard save the Traditional Annuity deposits. For my money, those are "...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Oct 15, 2014 6:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roll Over Old TIAA CREF Account?
Replies: 15
Views: 770

Re: Hold My Hand - I Am Rebalancing

Thankfully most of my money is spread between mutual funds with Vanguard, Fidelity and a pension plan. All allow me to rebalance quarterly without any fees. If it helps you sleep at night and satisfies your itch, there is no harm rebalancing quarterly as long as the assets are transaction and tax c...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Oct 15, 2014 12:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hold My Hand - I Am Rebalancing
Replies: 20
Views: 1250

Re: Samsung or LG Washer and Dryers (reliability and repairs

LG and Samsung have the lowest repair frequency among Consumer Reports survey respondents. That said, I think it is naive to believe that the increasing complexity of home appliances does not bring with it a much higher cost of average repair. It is believable to me that newer brands will have fewer...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Oct 15, 2014 11:36 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Samsung or LG Washer and Dryers (reliability and repairs)
Replies: 23
Views: 863

Re: The Role of Life Expectancy

I take Nisi's view on this question. The practical implication is to have a plan that has a decent chance of getting you to age 105 financially intact. I realize that it is hard to predict so far out, and much of what will determine our security will be out of our hands, but if I have a trajectory t...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Oct 15, 2014 11:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Role of Life Expectancy
Replies: 25
Views: 1659

Re: Treasury Bonds falling through the floor

To clarify, the yield on the 10-year bonds went momentarily to 1.99%, a drop of 21 basis points. The price is up of course.
by Aptenodytes
Wed Oct 15, 2014 10:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Bonds falling through the floor
Replies: 13
Views: 1400

Re: Considering a more aggressive AA than age = bonds

[...] "Pension balance" is almost irrelevant to asset allocation. The reason I include pension balance is because I plan to lump sum my pension directly into my portfolio when I leave my employer (probably in about 5 years). So I feel it should be factored into my income in my situation. ...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Oct 15, 2014 10:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Considering a more aggressive AA than age = bonds
Replies: 41
Views: 3269

Re: It's a good day to be heavy in REITs

The REIT index contains a 138 securities all concentrated in a single highly volatile market sector, while the total market index contains 3742 securities across all market sectors. Do you honestly believe that those two funds carry the same amount of risk? I was just referencing Vanguard. Why do t...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Oct 15, 2014 8:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's a good day to be heavy in REITs
Replies: 42
Views: 3980

Re: Hold My Hand - I Am Rebalancing

How often have you been rebalancing? I think the question I'd ask is "what are your bands?" With the commonly used band of 5% of the asset you normally wouldn't be triggering a rebalancing event that often with your portfolio. For narrow slices, people often widen the band to something li...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Oct 15, 2014 8:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hold My Hand - I Am Rebalancing
Replies: 20
Views: 1250

Re: What are you up YTD?

OK I finally looked.
+ 1.6%, ~57% equities, small-value tilt, ~50% international, Oct 14
by Aptenodytes
Wed Oct 15, 2014 8:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What are you up YTD?
Replies: 141
Views: 11804

Re: Considering a more aggressive AA than age = bonds

1) Having less than age in bonds is not really considered aggressive any more, if it ever was. It is a kind of benchmark of last resort -- if you can't figure anything out about how much risk to take on, use that as your benchmark. But once you start thinking about risk explicitly, it is meaningless...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Oct 14, 2014 9:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Considering a more aggressive AA than age = bonds
Replies: 41
Views: 3269

Re: Airline carry on limits

1) I've never seen anyone measure a bag. They get weighed sometimes, especially on foreign carriers, but those linear dimensions are just signalling devices, not enforcement mechanisms. 2) What matters is if you can fit the bag in the bin. Bins are all different sizes, and there's no guarantee your ...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Oct 13, 2014 7:39 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Airline carry on limits
Replies: 59
Views: 3000

Re: Spreadsheet for Rebalancing Bands

W/o re-balancing bands, its obvious what to do. Once you introduce Larry Swedroe's rebalancing across different aggragations, it gets complex. I am trying to simplify it to a spreasheet so that my spouse can handle this w/o having a second thought. I am precisely wanting to avoid what you are sugge...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Oct 13, 2014 10:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spreadsheet for Rebalancing Bands
Replies: 18
Views: 1862

Re: fsitx low morning star rating

Looks like it had a very small bit of tracking error recently; but more likely Morningstar is using some sloppy benchmarking. They compare it to 929 funds -- I can't imagine all 929 of those funds are tracking the same index.

But you shouldn't be looking at Morningstar ratings.
by Aptenodytes
Mon Oct 13, 2014 10:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: fsitx low morning star rating
Replies: 4
Views: 491

Re: Spreadsheet for Rebalancing Bands

A forum member asked me about my own rebalancing spreadsheet. I made a generic version and put it on Google sheets for anyone who'd like to have a look: Rebalancing Bands template I also linked to it on the wiki. I hope someone might find it useful. There are other good spreadsheets on the wiki pag...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Oct 13, 2014 7:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spreadsheet for Rebalancing Bands
Replies: 18
Views: 1862

Re: Recommend a NAS HD

I also have been very happy with the synology.
by Aptenodytes
Sat Oct 11, 2014 1:36 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recommend a NAS HD
Replies: 17
Views: 793

Re: Spreadsheet for Rebalancing Bands

You don't need automated emails. In less time than it would take to program that you could take a peak around twice a year.
by Aptenodytes
Sat Oct 11, 2014 10:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spreadsheet for Rebalancing Bands
Replies: 18
Views: 1862

Re: Rebalancing Bands

The most succinct presentation of the received wisdom is in the Wiki . If you are "adding new money each quarter to Re-Balance" then you don't really need to worry about what happens in between, regardless of which bands you choose. You can choose to rebalance more often than quarterly if ...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Oct 10, 2014 7:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing Bands
Replies: 15
Views: 1143

Re: Is a fall in portfolio value "only on paper"?

No point worrying about the metaphor. What matters is the objective situation. The key thing in your case is whether or not you are in the market. If you sell your assets you are out. That's what matters.
by Aptenodytes
Thu Oct 09, 2014 9:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a fall in portfolio value "only on paper"?
Replies: 86
Views: 3623

Re: Glide path strategy

Thanks for your input, RodC and YDNAL. Aptenodytes, How is it working out for you and how are you doing it? I can't say how it is working out -- I'm making the choice based on what I see as the merits that unfold over multiple decades. The approach is simple -- I am currently at about 55% stocks, b...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Oct 08, 2014 9:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Glide path strategy
Replies: 7
Views: 942

Re: Glide path strategy

I'm more or less doing this now.
by Aptenodytes
Wed Oct 08, 2014 12:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Glide path strategy
Replies: 7
Views: 942

Re: Spreadsheet to track AA bands

I think people are misinterpreting your question. I think that you aren't asking how to calculate AA bands, you are asking how to operate a spreadsheet. If I'm right, try some of the on-line tutorials such as this one . If I'm wrong and you are asking about how to calculate AA bands, then the Wiki w...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Oct 05, 2014 7:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Spreadsheet to track AA bands
Replies: 8
Views: 551

Re: Saving for Vehicle Replacement

I used to put money in an on-line savings account each month that was meant to cover repairs and the purchase of the next car. When I needed a new car in 2011 there was enough in there to pay cash. Three cheers for us. When wife needed a new car in 2013 there wasn't enough cash so we financed at 0.7...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Oct 04, 2014 10:39 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Saving for Vehicle Replacement
Replies: 24
Views: 1433

Re: Estimating Future Investment Returns — On a Napkin

Now part of the game of using Gordon or E/P10 is to take some of the fluctuations out of the data based on adding some forecast variable. So if you can do so and remove say 40% of the variance that helps a little (note this roughly takes std of 20% to 15%). Maybe the forecast errors get balanced by...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Oct 04, 2014 10:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Estimating Future Investment Returns — On a Napkin
Replies: 75
Views: 4783

Re: Critically Acclaimed Movies you did not like

You are lumping two very different groups. I can think of virtually endless Oscar-nominated films I didn't like; but it would take work to come up with a list of critically acclaimed movies I didn't like. Of the movies listed so far that I've seen, I've liked them all.
by Aptenodytes
Sat Oct 04, 2014 8:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Critically Acclaimed Movies you did not like
Replies: 150
Views: 8028

Re: Estimating Future Investment Returns — On a Napkin

I've come to the conclusion that long term data really aren't very helpful. We live in a series of shorter terms and none look anything like the long term data. If it's 40 years worth of data and we base some decision on it, we will discover that we end up living though maybe 3-5 distinctly differe...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Oct 04, 2014 6:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Estimating Future Investment Returns — On a Napkin
Replies: 75
Views: 4783

Re: What will you do during the next crash?

You are indirectly asking what our Investment Policy Statements are. For direct answers see various previous threads, including this one.
by Aptenodytes
Sat Oct 04, 2014 4:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What will you do during the next crash?
Replies: 63
Views: 4006

Re: a look at technical indicators

A friend of mine teaches a community college course on investing. He teaches a simple technical analysis "method" to sidestep bear markets and re-enter after they have passed. His simple method of sidestepping a bear market is this: At the end of each month you look at a graph showing the...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Oct 04, 2014 10:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a look at technical indicators
Replies: 19
Views: 1741

Re: Crowd-sourcing my portfolio

In general you don't want any bonds at all in a taxable account, unless you have no choice. But you have plenty of room for all your bonds in your tax-advantaged accounts, so they should go there. Regarding your logic on lending club, if you place the burden of proof on the nobel-prize winners and J...
by Aptenodytes
Thu Oct 02, 2014 1:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Crowd-sourcing my portfolio
Replies: 7
Views: 634
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