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Re: Which Vanguard BOND Fund ?

Question : Can anyone think of a (long term) reason why I should not transfer to Corporate Bond Index ? ? ? You stayed away from it initially for a reason which I suspect is still valid today. The duration is longer and the quality of instruments is lower. Those factors combine to increase your ris...
by Aptenodytes
Thu Aug 21, 2014 5:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which Vanguard BOND Fund ?
Replies: 20
Views: 1967

Re: Bogleheads and Dividend Paying Stocks

I think you are misreading Bogle's message. Journalists do it too. When he says focus on dividends and growth, he is trying to take the mystique and magic out of the picture. And notice he says "dividends and growth" not just "dividends." His most consistent, enduring message has...
by Aptenodytes
Thu Aug 21, 2014 4:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads and Dividend Paying Stocks
Replies: 22
Views: 1640

Re: Investors Pour Into Vanguard, Eschewing Stock Pickers

With the right governance structure, professionally executed, there's no reason Vanguard can't just keep on growing and growing. The ability to compete against them on quality and cost is almost nil. Economies of scale, plus the governance model, give them a huge cost advantage, and in terms of qual...
by Aptenodytes
Thu Aug 21, 2014 2:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors Pour Into Vanguard, Eschewing Stock Pickers
Replies: 63
Views: 4399

Re: Seek advise on windfall cash and balancing

The windfall is a red herring. Everyone needs a plan, whether they have a recent windfall or not. The windfall seems to be putting a sense of urgency on your thinking, but it need not. Act as if the windfall never happened, or act as if it happened two years ago; take steps to figure out how you wan...
by Aptenodytes
Thu Aug 21, 2014 10:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice please, new to bonds, portfolio shifts
Replies: 3
Views: 399

Re: Longer Term Investment Goals Progress Tracking

rkatz0 wrote:oh balderdash!

Careful -- you are going to trigger a moderator redaction from the 19th century.
My comments notwithstanding, I admire and understand what you are doing. You want to see how close you are to your goal. That's totally natural and good. I do the same, just not in percentage terms.
by Aptenodytes
Wed Aug 20, 2014 3:57 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Longer Term Investment Goals Progress Tracking
Replies: 20
Views: 1185

Re: Purpose of VTIAX?

Your intuition is wrong. The misnamed Callan Periodic Table is useful here. You want to compare S&P500 to primarily MSCI EAFE (circa 80% of international) and secondarily to MSCI Emerging Markets (circa 20%). I did a quick tally and if my rapid count is correct domestic is higher than developed ...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Aug 20, 2014 3:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Purpose of VTIAX?
Replies: 5
Views: 451

Re: Longer Term Investment Goals Progress Tracking

If you have money in the stock market then this is a weird way to track progress, at least for me. When you invest in stocks your total can go up and down. Therefore progress isn't readily measured as distance to the goalpost. Progress means making steady contributions, sticking to your AA. You can ...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Aug 20, 2014 3:05 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Longer Term Investment Goals Progress Tracking
Replies: 20
Views: 1185

Re: Dow Jones Index Fund?

I really wish they would quit reporting the Dow Jones completely... such an inferior index. I understand your point. Anymore it probably has something to do with the historical aspects of the index. There are theorems and algorithms that let you predict when irregular verbs will become regular verb...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Aug 20, 2014 1:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow Jones Index Fund?
Replies: 41
Views: 2047

Re: How the rich stay/get richer??

Right -- Warren Buffett is rich, and staying rich, but his holdings pay no dividends. Warren Buffet's (perhaps) most famous holding is Coca Cola. It pays a decent dividend, currently over 2.8% But doesn't he own those via his holdings in BRK, which doesn't pay dividends? If Buffett is not a good ex...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Aug 20, 2014 1:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [live off dividends?] How the rich stay/get richer??
Replies: 62
Views: 4783

Re: How the rich stay/get richer??

What matters is that the spending is significantly less than the total growth per year. It makes no difference whether that growth comes from dividends or appreciation, or both. Agreed. The dividends vs principal is a red herring. The hypothetical rich guy could be invested in stocks that pay no di...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Aug 20, 2014 1:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [live off dividends?] How the rich stay/get richer??
Replies: 62
Views: 4783

Re: POLL: Age for Collecting Social Security Benefits

You misinterpret what I said. Focus on the last three words... "if I don't". The longer I live the more time the children have to accumulate their own nest eggs, hence the less need of an inheritance. The less time I live, the more their possible need for an inheritance. OK; but I'm not s...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Aug 20, 2014 11:27 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POLL: Age for Collecting Social Security Benefits
Replies: 63
Views: 3665

Re: Tract Home - Things to Watch During Construction

Apologies if these have been mentioned already -- coming in too late to read them all. Simply don't read what I wrote if you object to that. Connection to plug in a portable generator to your house wiring, if you live in an area prone to extreme storms. Or spring for the built-in generator. Compromi...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Aug 20, 2014 10:54 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tract Home - Things to Watch During Construction
Replies: 56
Views: 2878

Re: POLL: Age for Collecting Social Security Benefits

Sixty two. No sure thing I'll live to the break even point, and I'd like to conserve as much of my investments as possible to pass on to my children if I don't. That seems kind of backwards to me. The easiest path to shrinking the legacy you leave is to live a really long time without adequate inco...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Aug 20, 2014 10:37 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POLL: Age for Collecting Social Security Benefits
Replies: 63
Views: 3665

Re: Shiller on Lofty Market Elevations

The key question — which Mr. Shiller is grappling with for the first time in this article, I believe — seems to be: • Have stocks really and truly been consistently overpriced for the last twenty-five years, when compared with the long-term PE10 average since 1881? - OR - • Has the PE10 average its...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Aug 18, 2014 9:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller on Lofty Market Elevations
Replies: 55
Views: 4782

Re: Dow Jones Index Fund?

There are intelligent arguments for many alternatives to cap weighting (equal weighting, revenue weighting, etc.). I cannot think of a single rational argument for price weighting. Even S&P Dow Jones states of their own index, "This application of grade-school arithmetic, while creative, i...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Aug 18, 2014 9:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow Jones Index Fund?
Replies: 41
Views: 2047

Re: Dow Jones Index Fund?

OK, I did not know that was true about the DJIA, I thought it was cap weighed like other cap weighed indexes We were talking past each other. Sorry.............Gordon No problem -- the quirks of the Dow mystify lots of us. Even saying it is an average of the stock prices obscures a lot of complexit...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Aug 18, 2014 5:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow Jones Index Fund?
Replies: 41
Views: 2047

Re: Shiller on Lofty Market Elevations

This response to Shiller, by Brad DeLong , provides a sharp, well-reasoned counter to Shiller's anxiety. The crux of his argument is two-fold: (1) even over the long time period of Shiller's generalizations, investors willing to hold 10 years are about as close to guaranteed a sure thing as comes al...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Aug 18, 2014 5:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller on Lofty Market Elevations
Replies: 55
Views: 4782

Re: Dow Jones Index Fund?

Aptenodytes, James SFO Go to the Bogleheads Wiki or to the Wikipedia or to Investopedia: Look up Market Capitalization.......Gordon The three of us agree on the definition of market capitalization -- you provided it in your earlier post. The misunderstanding concerns how the DJIA is created. It is ...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Aug 18, 2014 4:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow Jones Index Fund?
Replies: 41
Views: 2047

Re: Dow Jones Index Fund?

JamesSFO wrote:
EDIT: actually gwrvmd misquoted me....

I didn't think he was misquoting you, but rather directing misinformation at you. I didn't intend to imply that you were the author of the misinformation.
by Aptenodytes
Mon Aug 18, 2014 3:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow Jones Index Fund?
Replies: 41
Views: 2047

Re: Dow Jones Index Fund?

gwrvmd wrote:James SFO
Tracking by market price is cap weighted
Market price X number of shares = capitalization...................Gordon

No -- # of shares is essentially a random number. So price and capitalization will have no correlation with each other.
by Aptenodytes
Mon Aug 18, 2014 1:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow Jones Index Fund?
Replies: 41
Views: 2047

Re: How much do you plan to save in your 529 plan?

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:
Can someone define what a "2nd tier expensive private college" is? Names for example?

Well, this is an easy way to offend large numbers of alumni, but here are some examples often considered to fall in this group:

+ Northwestern
+ Middlebury
+ Rice
+ Johns Hopkins
+ Emory
+ Tufts
by Aptenodytes
Mon Aug 18, 2014 12:21 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much do you plan to save in your 529 plan?
Replies: 44
Views: 4138

Re: Help with Risky Allocation for 33 year-old

For someone who is risk-acceptant, it doesn't make sense to me to underweight emerging markets, nor from a practical sense does it make sense to lock into separate funds for EM and developed. I would advise a simple total international stock fund in addition to your small-cap international. The int...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Aug 18, 2014 10:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with Risky Allocation for 33 year-old
Replies: 13
Views: 1389

Re: Deck - Best Method of Treatment

I have relied on the Consumer Reports reviews, based on field tests, for these choices. The tradeoff is between transparent stain which shows off the wood grain better and looks more natural, but needs reapplying very frequenty; and opaque or semi-transparent, which looks more artificial but lasts m...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Aug 18, 2014 9:51 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Deck - Best Method of Treatment
Replies: 15
Views: 956

Re: In-Law Financial Issues (long)

1) find an outlet for your frustration. Man that is immense! I don't what would work for you. Other people benefit from short term counseling. 2) let your wife deal with it. Support her. 3) if you are worried about long-term consequences for your own financial health, discuss them with your wife and...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Aug 18, 2014 1:24 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: In-Law Financial Issues (long)
Replies: 44
Views: 4104

Re: Home audio system -- bluetooth speakers vs Sonos

Three cheers for Sonos.
by Aptenodytes
Sun Aug 17, 2014 3:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Home audio system -- bluetooth speakers vs Sonos
Replies: 15
Views: 1284

Re: Help with Risky Allocation for 33 year-old

You have a sizable amount of money built up at a relatively young age, so I wonder if you have experienced a sharp downturn that took a big hit on your portfolio yet. If not, you may want to think about hedging your bets a bit, maybe going up to 20% bonds. Someone on this forum recently suggested th...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Aug 17, 2014 10:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with Risky Allocation for 33 year-old
Replies: 13
Views: 1389

Re: Cost of House Power Washing

Just had my small cape with a bump out addition done for $300. Did it myself a few years ago. Prefer to pay the dude. 80% of the value add is getting up to the 2nd floor.
by Aptenodytes
Thu Aug 14, 2014 8:48 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cost of House Power Washing
Replies: 8
Views: 817

Re: Do Ex-US funds rebalance to maintain Dev:EM ratio?

But the problem is that self-adjusting cap weighting is at odds with one of the fundamental goals of asset allocation-- to set one's own exposures and maintain via rebalancing. ... So then what is the point of an Ex-US fund or a Global equity fund? I could just as well buy the parts separately and ...
by Aptenodytes
Thu Aug 14, 2014 2:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Ex-US funds rebalance to maintain Dev:EM ratio?
Replies: 12
Views: 594

Re: Do Ex-US funds rebalance to maintain Dev:EM ratio?

If you want to over weight EM or developef you need separate funds. But you could hold a large fraction in total International and then buy just what you need to overweight in a more targeted fund. That gets you some of the benefit you are talking about.
by Aptenodytes
Thu Aug 14, 2014 11:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Ex-US funds rebalance to maintain Dev:EM ratio?
Replies: 12
Views: 594

Re: Car Value/Income

None of the options fit. I only know my car's value because I'm thinking of selling it to my son. Otherwise I'd have had no clue. I know because I guessed before I looked it up.
by Aptenodytes
Thu Aug 14, 2014 11:32 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Car Value/Income
Replies: 22
Views: 1900

Re: Can a single investor influence the market?

The question in your title is different than the question in your post. I'll answer the one in your post. I invest in stocks because of my confidence in their aggregate long-term trends. That confidence is based on empirical regularities that embody all kinds of nefarious efforts to manipulate marke...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Aug 13, 2014 9:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a single investor influence the market?
Replies: 20
Views: 1718

Re: Should I make my entire tax-deferred portfolio bonds?

You should always have your portfolio invested in your aa. For now that means the tax-advantaged account mirrors your aa. Later on when you create a taxable account put only stocks there. Adjust the tax-advantaged account to maintain the aa overall.
by Aptenodytes
Wed Aug 13, 2014 9:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I make my entire tax-deferred portfolio bonds?
Replies: 8
Views: 1131

Re: How does my revamped AA strategy look?

Seems reasonable. No need to plan monthly contributions to the nearest penny in advance. In practice you'll want to steer the new money where needed to keep the AA on track. If you don't want to mess with that, that's fine, but either way you live in a world of lower precision. You will find some pe...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Aug 13, 2014 6:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How does my revamped AA strategy look?
Replies: 8
Views: 607

Re: Revised Portfolio Asset Allocation

Your international percentage is quite low, but perhaps you have reasons for that. You don't give a full breakdown of the bond holdings -- it is hard to tell what you are aiming for with the savings bonds. Are you in the process of building a ladder that will have maturities in 2023, 2024, 2025, et...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Aug 13, 2014 10:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Revised Portfolio Asset Allocation
Replies: 7
Views: 848

Re: High Growth Small Cap allocation

Now, there should be a similar market portfolio for a balanced portfolio of stocks AND bonds. The market has about $55 trillion in stocks and about $82 trillion in bonds. That puts the stock/bond market portfolio around 40/60. If I wanted to increase my risk, the smartest way according to CAPM woul...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Aug 13, 2014 10:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High Growth Small Cap allocation
Replies: 17
Views: 1228

Re: Revised Portfolio Asset Allocation

Your international percentage is quite low, but perhaps you have reasons for that. You don't give a full breakdown of the bond holdings -- it is hard to tell what you are aiming for with the savings bonds. Are you in the process of building a ladder that will have maturities in 2023, 2024, 2025, etc...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Aug 13, 2014 10:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Revised Portfolio Asset Allocation
Replies: 7
Views: 848

Re: Copyright question

For something like this, Creative Commons is by far the best route, in my opinion. That said, I routinely share PowerPoint slides all the time, and on a peer-to-peer basis the norm is simply to acknowledge the author of the slides in presentation. E.g.when I borrow someone's slide I insert text on t...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Aug 12, 2014 1:10 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Copyright question
Replies: 15
Views: 635

Re: What's an acceptable stable value fund rate?

For what it's worth, I have my fixed-income roughly 20% TIPS, 35% stable value, and 45% intermediate-term Treasuries. Why do you bother with the intermediate term treasuries? Why not just go with TIPS and SVF? I'm sure your SVF has a higher yield than the IT treasuries, and there is no interest rat...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Aug 12, 2014 12:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's an acceptable stable value fund rate?
Replies: 18
Views: 1360

Re: Portfolio Tracker suggestion?

First figure out how strong your privacy issues are. If they are so strong that you don't want anyone holding your details in the cloud, then you are limited to a conventional spreadsheet. If you can tolerate some information being held by another party, then I would suggest starting with one of the...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Aug 12, 2014 12:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Portfolio Tracker suggestion?
Replies: 24
Views: 1555

Re: Net business income

The only way that can be true is if the employment agency is based outside the US. Is that the case? If the agency is in the US then I think they have to provide either a W2 or a 1099; not sure how one gets around that. But either way I think he is operating as a sole proprietor business and can de...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Aug 12, 2014 10:44 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Net business income
Replies: 8
Views: 604

Re: Net business income

There was no w2 or 1099. He is self employed. The oil company paid the employment agency, the agency took their cut and then paid him. The oil co. paid the above mentioned expenses. Something else that seems odd, the CPA also included the employment agency's percentage in his income. He was in coun...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Aug 12, 2014 10:20 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Net business income
Replies: 8
Views: 604

Re: What's an acceptable stable value fund rate?

I would caution against comparing the yields of a stable value fund to the yield of Total Bond. Before the yields are really comparable, you need to adjust for the risk in TBM, as Kevin M suggests. Perhaps there are mathematical formulas for assigning percentages to stable value and bonds, given con...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Aug 12, 2014 10:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's an acceptable stable value fund rate?
Replies: 18
Views: 1360

Re: Can the reverse of market timing work?

What you call reverse market timing could be called applying market timing to withdrawals. A few seconds thought will reveal that if it works for purchases it works for withdrawals. Now you have to decide if it works.
by Aptenodytes
Sun Aug 10, 2014 6:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can the reverse of market timing work?
Replies: 18
Views: 2073

Re: 100% Total Stock Market in Roth Account?

You may be mixing up two aspects to tax efficiency. If you have both taxable and tax-advantaged accounts, you normally want bonds in tax-advantaged because they generate dividend income. But this situation doesn't apply. When choosing between Roth and tax-deferred, you normally want the higher-retur...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Aug 10, 2014 6:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 100% Total Stock Market in Roth Account?
Replies: 7
Views: 799

Re: Thinking of maybe changing bonds...

Thanks for the responses. I went and looked again, and it now says 2.8% on my account. Which seems to be in line with the info they have posted on the fund. I don't know why it said 0.9 before. Maybe it was bugged out. At any rate... I'd still like to see a little better than that. But I don't know...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Aug 09, 2014 12:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking of maybe changing bonds...
Replies: 11
Views: 1162

Re: Thinking of maybe changing bonds...

3-year return is 5.3%, I believe; something is off with your calculator. 5.3% over three years isn't something to shout to the rooftops over, but it is better than 0.9%. When I look at the available information I settle on the fund you are currently in; I wouldn't budge. Regardless of what the 3-yea...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Aug 08, 2014 11:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking of maybe changing bonds...
Replies: 11
Views: 1162

Re: Expected REIT (dividend) return

Math problems are easy. Predictions are hard. Don't confuse the two. Coloring in the answer doesn't make it more believable.
by Aptenodytes
Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Expected REIT (dividend) return
Replies: 9
Views: 698

Re: New VG Performance Charts

I find these charts to be meaningless. They are labeled "performance" but they track balances. At least the stuff I see. My Excel spreadsheet gives me graphs of performance that make sense to me, and they are integrated across all holdings. The new charts let you select balances or invest...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Aug 08, 2014 2:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New VG Performance Charts
Replies: 17
Views: 1990

Re: Should this person buy bonds??

They provide a reservoir to tap for unforeseen emergencies. Stocks aren't as good for that, and the income streams don't do it. You could use cash, but that's wasteful. They reduce the volatility of the invested assets. You could say you have no need at all for this function, that you are tough enou...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Aug 08, 2014 2:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should this person buy bonds??
Replies: 16
Views: 1127

Re: New VG Performance Charts

I find these charts to be meaningless. They are labeled "performance" but they track balances. At least the stuff I see.

My Excel spreadsheet gives me graphs of performance that make sense to me, and they are integrated across all holdings.
by Aptenodytes
Fri Aug 08, 2014 12:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New VG Performance Charts
Replies: 17
Views: 1990
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