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Re: Retirement AA

60K is 3% of your total, so under most scenarios you will be fine with any of a broad range of AAs as long as you aren't too crazy conservative. I don't know exactly where the lower stock % threshold would be -- maybe 30%. But for some people 3% is not as safe a withdrawal rate as it used to be; if ...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Mar 31, 2015 4:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement AA
Replies: 5
Views: 338

Re: What would you do now if you were all cash?

bowtie wrote:So dca is better because of possible downturns or it helps keep AA more level?

DCA helps prevent you from totally freaking out and abandoning the plan. So it is better for people who are worried that they might freak out.
by Aptenodytes
Tue Mar 31, 2015 12:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What would you do now if you were all cash?
Replies: 25
Views: 2576

Re: Is this a scam: James Rickards

If you put the burden of proof on yourself to show that all scammers are wrong, you will live a miserable life. Better to do what you know is true, and don't even read people like this. If a guy in tin-foil hat on the subway tells you that the world is ending next week, do you start doing research o...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Mar 31, 2015 12:40 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is this a scam: James Rickards
Replies: 9
Views: 1432

Re: Negative Yields Hit US Treasury Markets

TXAGBH wrote:Can someone explain how this even makes sense? What crazy stars are aligning for this to even happen? Im thinking this won't end well...

People have always paid a premium for treasuries.
Negative numbers are numbers just like positive numbers. Remember your number line from elementary school.
by Aptenodytes
Tue Mar 31, 2015 12:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Negative Yields Hit US Treasury Markets
Replies: 15
Views: 2284

Re: Total International Vs. Small Cap Intl

What you are proposing has a logic to it, but the logic is not backed by the evidence. Normally one chooses something like total-international because one believes the evidence that it is not possible to predict which sectors or stocks will outperform the others. You think you can predict outperform...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Mar 31, 2015 12:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total International Vs. Small Cap Intl
Replies: 8
Views: 875

Re: My Strategy For A Market Crash

I'm curious why dividends are relevant to your strategy at all. The distinction between dividends and capital gains has always seemed arbitrary to me. I think all that matters is total return. The OP frames the strategy in terms of dividends, but it is really a variant of Taylor's belt-tightening s...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Mar 31, 2015 12:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Strategy For A Market Crash
Replies: 30
Views: 4550

Re: Bonds -stay the course, or....?

If there were a risk-free way to increase returns in today's environment, why in the world would you refrain from using it in a different environment? If it made sense today it would have made sense yesterday. If you were making a mistake yesterday, go ahead and fix it today. But don't get spooked b...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Mar 31, 2015 12:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds -stay the course, or....?
Replies: 6
Views: 525

Re: Reverse mutual fund lookup?

With all due respect, I don't see how you could possibly make any practical use of such a tool. If you knew which stocks mattered most, you could just buy those stocks and save a lot of money. The reason to buy an actively managed fund is because you think the manager knows more than you. You are lo...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Mar 29, 2015 7:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [finding which mutual funds invest in a given stock]
Replies: 9
Views: 628

Re: All lazy portfolios impossible at Vanguard?

The conventional wisdom is to not worry about hitting the precise AA in the very early stages of accumulation, because the effect is too small to be noticed at those magnitudes. So do something like put everything in the target retirement fund that comes closest to your desired stock/bond split, and...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Mar 29, 2015 6:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: All lazy portfolios impossible at Vanguard?
Replies: 23
Views: 2656

Re: How to invest in retirement

You have two countervailing instincts at work. One is that your Fidelity representative is a source of useful advice. The other is that you know what is best for you. Based on the limited information in your post, I'd say the odds are strongly in favor of the second and strongly against the first. T...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Mar 29, 2015 4:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to invest in retirement
Replies: 13
Views: 1287

Re: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015

There seems to be confusion about what Rick is actually claiming with respect to the long-term government bond forecast. To me it was obvious. But then I may be wrong, so let me state it as clearly as I can and then see if I can be corrected. My understanding is totally different than what the criti...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Mar 29, 2015 2:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015
Replies: 120
Views: 10553

Re: Retirement Investment Allocation Check

I know that the standard catechism calls for you to list every fund you own and every fund you have access to you when you ask for portfolio advice, but what I have found is that often that's just a distraction, especially if the investor is still trying to sort out what AA is appropriate for them. ...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Mar 29, 2015 1:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement Investment Allocation Check
Replies: 10
Views: 1065

Re: How many of you invest in individual stocks?

Well I said "small" but I am at the smallest of the small; something like .03%
I guess if you round that it is zero.
A future version of the poll should give percentage ranges instead of adjectives -- looks like some people weren't sure which side of a threshold their holdings fell on.
by Aptenodytes
Sun Mar 29, 2015 11:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many of you invest in individual stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 3523

Re: Retirement Investment Allocation Check

A few quick thoughts. 1) Sell the individual stocks if you can get long-term capital gain treatment. Needless risk. 2) Don't consider the collectibles as part of your portfolio. They are part of your net worth so you can include them whenever you tally your net worth, but realistically they don't fu...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Mar 29, 2015 11:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement Investment Allocation Check
Replies: 10
Views: 1065

Re: Hate where we live, do we make major changes?

I'll just pass on some impressionistic evidence, from the vantage point of someone in his mid-50s. I can think of several close friends that I've known over multiple decades who have acted on the impulse that is driving your soul-searching. That is, they uprooted themselves, with all the hassle and ...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Mar 29, 2015 10:39 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hate where we live, do we make major changes?
Replies: 92
Views: 6317

Re: Is BND really safe?

I'm doing a little AA adjusting. Looking at a more conservative 60/40 stock/bond allocation. Question is, is BND really all that safe right now? I'm almost ready to stay heavier in stocks, (index of course) Currently sitting at a 80/20 AA. Guardyourheart. If BND goes down on an interest rate rise i...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Mar 29, 2015 9:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is BND really safe?
Replies: 12
Views: 1533

Re: Is BND really safe?

Nisi is giving you the right advice. You could also frame it like this: 1) How many years from now do you expect to be withdrawing from your portfolio? 2) If > 1 year, you can stop worrying about BND; nothing it can do will affect your wellbeing > 1 year from now. 3) If < 1 year, are you depleting y...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Mar 29, 2015 9:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is BND really safe?
Replies: 12
Views: 1533

Re: Two Legged Stool [Figuring out when to take Social Secur

I am going to focus on your framing of the question, which is what is the best way to figure out when to take SS. I think it comes down to a simple branching tree: 1) If you wanted to defer SS to age 70, do you have savings on hand to permit you to do that? If no, you have no practical choice but t...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Mar 28, 2015 5:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Two Legged Stool [Figuring out when to take Social Security]
Replies: 26
Views: 3011

Re: Does rebalancing make sense for guaranteed assets?

TIAA CREF offers automatic rebalancing on your birthday. One of my accounts was set up as 50% Retirement Choice Plus at 3.10% guaranteed and 50% CREF Bond Market. This is a 457 from a former employer that I can withdraw at anytime without penalty, so I treat it as a backup emergency fund rather tha...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Mar 28, 2015 5:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does rebalancing make sense for guaranteed assets?
Replies: 8
Views: 749

Re: Two Legged Stool [Figuring out when to take Social Secur

I've been sitting here running scenarios on the CoreCap calculator (fairly easy to use). If I put in 6% expected return, 3% inflation, I die with more than I started with using all three SS points (62, 66 and 70) and using 20, 25 and 30 years in retirement. At 20 years expected of retirement, start...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Mar 28, 2015 3:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Two Legged Stool [Figuring out when to take Social Security]
Replies: 26
Views: 3011

Re: Two Legged Stool [Figuring out when to take Social Secur

2) Given the size of your portfolio and your assumptions about plausible futures for the market and for your spending needs, are you free of the risk of running out of money in old age? If yes, then your decision does not have any significant material impact and you can stop here and do whatever yo...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Mar 28, 2015 2:03 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Two Legged Stool [Figuring out when to take Social Security]
Replies: 26
Views: 3011

Re: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015

Nobody 'harshing' here, Aptenodytes - but when you say... I think Rick is right to base his 30-year project of TIPS returns on a broader set of historical information than just today's rates. ...that is inconsistent with the (I thought) consensus opinion on the forum that current long-term 'rates' ...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Mar 28, 2015 1:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015
Replies: 120
Views: 10553

Michael Spence: Are Equities Overvalued?

Another Nobel laureate weighs in on this question. Everything he says seems reasonable, but what is striking to me is that he is unable to reach any conclusion on the motivating question. What I take away is that if he can't figure it out, I shouldn't try either. He does derive a clear corollary wh...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Mar 28, 2015 12:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Michael Spence: Are Equities Overvalued?
Replies: 13
Views: 1510

Re: Whats a good multi vitamin?

Let's steer clear of medical advice please.
by Aptenodytes
Sat Mar 28, 2015 12:39 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Whats a good multi vitamin?
Replies: 17
Views: 1196

Re: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015

navyasw02 wrote:A 30 year forecast? What's the point?

Is your portfolio diversified across multiple asset categories? Do you make financial plans? If so, you are using such forecasts already even if you don't know it.
by Aptenodytes
Sat Mar 28, 2015 12:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015
Replies: 120
Views: 10553

Re: Two Legged Stool [Figuring out when to take Social Secur

I am going to focus on your framing of the question, which is what is the best way to figure out when to take SS. I'm going to ignore the issue of file-and-suspend combined with lower-income spouse taking spousal benefits. I assume you are taking care of that already and you just want to focus on th...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Mar 28, 2015 11:09 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Two Legged Stool [Figuring out when to take Social Security]
Replies: 26
Views: 3011

Re: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015

I may be misunderstanding, but if the following is true: I n mid-March, a Zero Coupon Treasury Bond maturing in 2044 was priced to yield 2.43 percent. Since zero coupon bonds pay no interest, 2.43 percent is exactly what an investor will earn on their investment through the year 2044. ...then how c...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Mar 28, 2015 10:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015
Replies: 120
Views: 10553

Re: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015

I like these updates from Rick. We all have some version of these forecasts in our heads when we plan our portfolios. Rick is explicit about his. Next year why not go the logical next step and articulate your uncertainty estimates too. Keep it simple and do something like estimate the 5 and 25 perce...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Mar 28, 2015 8:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015
Replies: 120
Views: 10553

Re: "TIPS. Love them or leave them?"

And the very risk that they purport to defend against--an unexpected uptick in inflation--is nowhere on the horizon. Fancy that! You'd think the least an unexpected threat could do would be to let us have a bit of warning. You have to cut her a bit of a break. She had a 200-word article that an edi...
by Aptenodytes
Thu Mar 26, 2015 4:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "TIPS. Love them or leave them?"
Replies: 16
Views: 1962

Re: "TIPS. Love them or leave them?"

It seems like sensible guidance. The case for owning some TIPS comes down to them being the only bond-like product with guaranteed inflation protection, and the risk of unexpected inflation, however low, is not zero. What she said about how big a TIPS allocation to aim for is also sensible, if vague...
by Aptenodytes
Thu Mar 26, 2015 3:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "TIPS. Love them or leave them?"
Replies: 16
Views: 1962

Re: Huge Tax Bill !!

I don't get what the big deal is. You jumped a tax bracket. There is no $350K tax bracket for married-filing-jointly, but perhaps you mean you jumped from the 28% to the 33% tax bracket. That's just 5 percentage points, and it only applies to the amount above $226,850. Or perhaps you mean you jumped...
by Aptenodytes
Thu Mar 26, 2015 9:21 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Huge Tax Bill !!
Replies: 10
Views: 1845

Re: VanG Intermediate Term Bond Market Question

You choose among different terms, between corporate and Treasury, and between inflation protected and not. Total Bond is for people who are agnostic on the first two and prefer not to protect against inflation. If you are agnostic on the first two and prefer to protect against inflation you can add ...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Mar 24, 2015 7:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VanG Intermediate Term Bond Market Question
Replies: 20
Views: 1831

Re: Investing in the medium term say 15 years. Same princip

These terms are used very loosely. If you want to be precise about your strategy you need to be precise about your meaning. " investing in the medium term (10-15yrs) rather than retirement?" is ambiguous. First of all, one can retire in 10-15 years so there's nothing mutually exclusive abo...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Mar 23, 2015 8:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in the medium term say 15 years. Same principles?
Replies: 7
Views: 833

Re: "Small-Cap Indexing: Popularity Can Be a Pain"

Guys, the article concerns the perils of the Russell 2000 as a benchmark as compared to alternative small-cap indexes, e.g. the one that Vanguard uses. The merits of this case don't depend on the existence of the small cap premium or the accuracy of data from the 1920s. The author doesn't help his c...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Mar 23, 2015 4:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Small-Cap Indexing: Popularity Can Be a Pain"
Replies: 14
Views: 2127

Re: "Small-Cap Indexing: Popularity Can Be a Pain"

Thanks for pointing out the article, Taylor. Interesting. However, I have to say that article could have used a good editor. The piece could have been condensed by 2/3 quite easily. Here's my shorter version. The Russell 2000 index is a problematic benchmark for small-cap investing because its popul...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Mar 22, 2015 3:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Small-Cap Indexing: Popularity Can Be a Pain"
Replies: 14
Views: 2127

Re: Traveling WiFi

Part of the answer depends on how many devices would be using the signal at once, and how much bandwidth they will be using. If it is one or two devices, doing low-bandwidth things like email and web surfing, I would just tether via your phone. If it is more devices,or you are doing higher bandwidth...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Mar 22, 2015 3:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Traveling WiFi
Replies: 17
Views: 2013

Re: Which vanguard fund should I select for a small rollover

Just roll it into the 3 fund asset allocation you have already chosen. I can't because the 3 fund allocation I currently have is after tax. So this will be the only tax-advantaged account you have? In that case, put all of it in your bond fund and lower your after-tax bond holding by the same amount.
by Aptenodytes
Sun Mar 22, 2015 12:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which vanguard fund should I select for a small rollover?
Replies: 10
Views: 419

Re: The one area I disagree with Jack

The question is not that I am applying a rigid rule as it is patently obvious that I am not. It is Mr. Bogle who has stated and stood by such a rule, and the OP that started this thread is the one who is asking how much agreement there is here with this rule. If one position on that is that the rul...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Mar 22, 2015 10:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The one area I disagree with Jack
Replies: 93
Views: 7328

Re: The one area I disagree with Jack

Framed as a strict mathematical rule where you end up with this rule ignores your circumstances as a whole and takes account of your income circumstances only in one rigid way. I don't think there is any escape from this. I guess this is true if you believe that all people should calculate their AA...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Mar 22, 2015 10:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The one area I disagree with Jack
Replies: 93
Views: 7328

Re: The one area I disagree with Jack

So if you want to rethink your position and find a way to agree with him, simply translate his words a bit: Once you are in retirement, the greater your SS income is, the lower your bond percentage needs to be. It is functionally the same statement, just framed differently. The alternative advice t...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Mar 22, 2015 9:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The one area I disagree with Jack
Replies: 93
Views: 7328

Re: The one area I disagree with Jack

You say you disagree with him, but you really don't. He says that your guaranteed income stream in retirement affects your risk profile and therefore affects how you invest. There's no way whatsoever to disagree with that. It is mathematically the same as saying that your spending stream affects how...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Mar 22, 2015 7:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The one area I disagree with Jack
Replies: 93
Views: 7328

Re: Opened an account Vanguard yesterday, now having cold fe

See the problem is, my husband retired 23 years ago from Verizon and took a lump sum. He did an IRA with Smith Barney and he has 10% left now....most of it gone in 2008. Granted we have taken an $800.00 check from it for a number of years, but we have been very leary since. Our investments have alw...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Mar 21, 2015 12:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Opened an account Vanguard yesterday, now having cold feet
Replies: 60
Views: 3737

Re: Opened an account Vanguard yesterday, now having cold fe

There is never any reason to panic about this stuff. The only reason to read people like James Rickards is to indulge in panic. Therefore you have to choose.

If you like boglehead style investing, don't read Rickards or people like him.

If you like to panic, don't invest in the boglehead manner.
by Aptenodytes
Sat Mar 21, 2015 12:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Opened an account Vanguard yesterday, now having cold feet
Replies: 60
Views: 3737

Re: Restaurant tipping

I definitely tip based on service and if I like the place even if they might be having a rough night. I'm still in that 10% range though mostly and only moved to around 15% at places I really like. I probably would tip 10% if my wife hadn't influenced me over the years. I definitely am not cheap or...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Mar 21, 2015 10:49 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Restaurant tipping
Replies: 200
Views: 11767

Re: Timing for taking RMDs

[edit: what I wrote below was premised on your not needing the RMD for spending, but I misread your premise which says you will need to spend the money in one year. For me one year and today are functionally the same. Therefore I'd amend the recommendation to have you just withdraw every month and d...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Mar 21, 2015 10:42 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Timing for taking RMDs
Replies: 18
Views: 1685

Re: Why I don't file early

You can have the best of both worlds :( and file early and then file the amended return after the late 1099s etc come in. That's what I'm doing this year.
by Aptenodytes
Sat Mar 21, 2015 10:21 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why I don't file early
Replies: 35
Views: 3373

Re: Restaurant tipping

The baseline percentage is creeping up, so you have to choose where you want to be on the curve. 30 years ago it seemed like the default was something like 10-15%, then after a while 15% became the baseline and 10% was for the elderly and meanspirited. I now tip 20% as my baseline, veering a bit onc...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Mar 21, 2015 10:15 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Restaurant tipping
Replies: 200
Views: 11767

Re: How mutual fund distribution affects performance?

If you have doubts about the return I'd suggest looking at the company's web site for the fund. They can be trusted to calculate it correctly. It doesn't really matter what the Web sites say though. You earn what you earn.
by Aptenodytes
Fri Mar 20, 2015 6:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How mutual fund distribution affects performance?
Replies: 6
Views: 737

Re: Tankless Hit Water Heaters

Only inn USA does one use a hw tank. Everyone else in the world uses tankless. This is not even remotely close to accurate. I've lived in Australia and Vietnam and never seen a tankless water heater in either country. I've lived in three countries in the past 7 years and in all 3 hot water tanks we...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Mar 20, 2015 7:29 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tankless Hot Water Heaters
Replies: 29
Views: 2521

Re: Anyone concerned about their bond holdings?

I know the catechism like everyone else, and can say, like Pierre, "I don't care." I will admit, however, to thinking about moving a greater fraction of my non-stock holdings to the TIAA Traditional Annuity. Such thoughts are driven more by the level of current bond yields rather than any ...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Mar 20, 2015 7:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone concerned about their bond holdings?
Replies: 58
Views: 5693
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