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Re: Bonds & Inflation: stability or lack thereof

That's interesting - Can you post a higher-resolution version of the graphic? Or a link to one?
by Angst
Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds & Inflation: stability or lack thereof
Replies: 4
Views: 444

Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

nisiprius wrote:There will be general agreement that all of the "risk factors" have finally been discovered, and that the complete list of 5,126 risk factors explains 100% of the performance of the stock market.

And the Wilshire 5000 becomes decidedly quaint.
by Angst
Fri Jan 30, 2015 3:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?
Replies: 82
Views: 7995

Re: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?

I have abandoned tips before. I sold out of all my 30 year tips when the real rates got to like 0.2% or so. I started buying back in when the rate got back up to 0.6-0.7% Yes, I see... but of course we all know rates are only going to go up from here on out. :wink: ok so I'm halfway to abandoning t...
by Angst
Fri Jan 30, 2015 12:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What will be the biggest investment surprises of 2015?
Replies: 82
Views: 7995

Re: Thoughts on DFA equities?

I've seen one of the Vanguard retirement date funds in my company-sponsored 401k carry some DFA holdings, so I was curious. http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/holdings?t=KPRHX&region=usa&culture=en-US Understand that this is not a "Vanguard retirement date fund". Be that as it...
by Angst
Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on DFA equities?
Replies: 17
Views: 1136

Re: Just purchased 2015 maximum EE Series Bonds

A good start on your retirement annuity! That's right! Thanks Mel. Normal inflation is around 3% so if "normal" happens over the next 20 yrs. you made a whopping 0.5% real return for money tied up for 20 yrs with EE bonds. I don't see how that is a good deal. Buying long term treasuries w...
by Angst
Wed Jan 28, 2015 11:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Just purchased 2015 maximum EE Series Bonds
Replies: 67
Views: 3995

Re: Just purchased 2015 maximum EE Series Bonds

I've purchased 6 rungs so far, and counting. 20-year rates have generally been well below 3.53% for most of that time. They're currently approaching 2.0% I also think it's important to recognize that with every passing year, the yield to maturity (YTM) on previously purchased EE Bonds will continue ...
by Angst
Wed Jan 28, 2015 7:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Just purchased 2015 maximum EE Series Bonds
Replies: 67
Views: 3995

Re: Asness - The Small-Firm Effect Is Real, and It’s Spectac

All I can say is that the recent blizzard of factor proliferation has made me cold and shrunk my enthusiasm for factor tilts.
by Angst
Tue Jan 27, 2015 6:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asness - The Small-Firm Effect Is Real, and It’s Spectacular
Replies: 62
Views: 6384

Re: Where do you shop for groceries?

Aldi - Fruits & vegetables and eggs (few other staples) Trader Joe's - Yogurt, nuts, cheese, crackers, cheap wine, some frozen veggies Whole Foods - Wide variety of bulk grains Generic Groc Chains - Broccoli (better quality than Aldi), some meats, sliced cheese, beer... sale stuff I make the rou...
by Angst
Thu Jan 22, 2015 6:09 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where do you shop for groceries?
Replies: 97
Views: 8034

Re: Setting price limit for ETF

Given you are unable to meet the minimums for the mutual fund versions of Total Stock Mrkt and Total International (ie. $3,000 + $3,000), is this by any chance because you are funding a new IRA? (ie. $5,500 total) If this is the case , because of some of the advantages many perceive that they get by...
by Angst
Mon Jan 19, 2015 4:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Setting price limit for ETF
Replies: 22
Views: 1215

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

Incorrect, Larry Swedroe has already checked with AQR and reported back to the forum that they plan on holding 1.5% indefinitely. The link and this same point was raised just a handful of posts above. Thank you matjen for the correction; I've been reading this thread on and off (as well as the earl...
by Angst
Mon Jan 19, 2015 2:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 278
Views: 31733

Re: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]

Fidelity (their webpage today) quotes the ER for QSPIX as 2.15% (as of 5/14). Seeking Alpha quotes it as 2.11%. Has this come down to 1.5%? What is not unknown but instead crystal clear is that it is very difficult to overcome its 1.5% annual expense load and its manifest tax inefficiency no matter...
by Angst
Mon Jan 19, 2015 11:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An alternative to alternative investments [QSPIX]
Replies: 278
Views: 31733

Re: MSCI Switzerland Index Return

Seriously though, what a mess. I hadn't heard about Everest. All of the stories I've seen so far seem to focus on the likes of trading companies and they've only hinted at the consequences for the public at large, eg. like some people in other countries whose mortgages are denominated in Swiss franc...
by Angst
Sun Jan 18, 2015 9:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MSCI Switzerland Index Return
Replies: 9
Views: 870

Re: MSCI Switzerland Index Return

Diversify? Nah... we don't need those international stocks. We're the biggest economy in the world! USA, USA...
Nothing like that's gonna ever happen here. :shock:
by Angst
Sun Jan 18, 2015 9:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MSCI Switzerland Index Return
Replies: 9
Views: 870

Re: Valuation of I Bonds

Selecting a 5-year TIPS to compare to seems completely arbitrary. Why not a 1-year or 10-year TIPS? I'd say the term risk on the I Bond is closer to that of a 1-year TIPS (for the first five years, and after that no term risk at all), if not even less. So as long as you can get the yield of a TIPS ...
by Angst
Sun Jan 18, 2015 12:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation of I Bonds
Replies: 29
Views: 2948

Re: What is the international portion of your portfolio and

Since sometime roughly around 2000, I've tried to keep my equity at about 50/50 US/Int'l. As much as I have no reason to imagine that we will be the next Japan anytime soon, neither do I have any reason to conclude we won't be. I feel I'm being conservative and I think it would be relatively wreckle...
by Angst
Sat Jan 17, 2015 2:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the international portion of your portfolio and why?
Replies: 132
Views: 10093

Re: EE bonds vs iBonds

Mel Lindauer wrote:And the I Bonds can be tax-free if used for qualifying educational expenses for your or your children.

As can be the EE Bonds!
Treasury Direct on Using Savings Bonds for Educational Expenses
by Angst
Sat Jan 17, 2015 1:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EE bonds vs iBonds
Replies: 29
Views: 2495

Re: Poll: Your Max. REIT Allocation

I was 5% for a long time (not including REIT's picked up in Total Mrkt, SC Val, etc). Once International VNQI had come out though, I eventually decided to transition to 50/50, US/Int'l. Maybe for the sake of round numbers, can't recall exactly, I chose to allocate 3% to each, so now I'm 6% REIT. It'...
by Angst
Sat Jan 17, 2015 10:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Your Max. REIT Allocation
Replies: 54
Views: 4052

Re: Valuation of I Bonds

I disagree with all of this excessively complex analysis. Again, the term risk of I Bonds is minuscule compared to a 5-year TIPS, yet the yield is only slightly less (even more slightly less yesterday, with the 5-year CMT real at 0.04%), and if you look at real market quotes (not the CMT yield), th...
by Angst
Sat Jan 17, 2015 10:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation of I Bonds
Replies: 29
Views: 2948

Re: Should I now take advantage of the low euro?

Because on the one hand I get paid in (essentially) USD and on the other hand I might one day move back to Europe, I maintain my ETF investments as follows: 14% iShares European corporate bonds (euro denominated) 36% FTSE Developed Europe ETF (euro denominated) 14% Vanguard Short-Term Bonds (USD de...
by Angst
Sat Jan 17, 2015 9:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I now take advantage of the low euro?
Replies: 8
Views: 1008

Re: Valuation of I Bonds

I'd like to understand how to value I bonds in this context. In particular, I'm trying to figure out if I bonds are currently worth purchasing or does it make sense to wait and hope for a higher fixed rate in May. The current yield on Vanguard Inflation Protected Securities is 0.25% which is higher...
by Angst
Fri Jan 16, 2015 11:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation of I Bonds
Replies: 29
Views: 2948

Re: Vanguard now taking orders for 10yr TIPS

Thank you #Cruncher for your analysis. There are so many factors that come to bear, and you have a wonderful capacity for grasping them all. ... for the new 10yr TIP I see an indicative yield of 0.175% ... Angst, can you provide a link for obtaining this info? I pulled this info from Vanguard by goi...
by Angst
Thu Jan 15, 2015 10:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard now taking orders for 10yr TIPS
Replies: 5
Views: 1386

Re: How low could the 10 year go?

Investerguy wrote:Bond yields seems to keep falling. How low could they go?

The 10 year hit 1.43% in July, 2012.
by Angst
Thu Jan 15, 2015 10:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How low could the 10 year go?
Replies: 16
Views: 1480

Re: Major issues with new HSABank.com website

The site definately has been a mess but I've still been able to transfer funds to TDA. I just fiddled around on the site and found where to get to that area. It convoluted but here's how you do it: Once logged on go to Accounts-> Account Summary-> View HSA Summary-> Manage investments-> Transfer In...
by Angst
Thu Jan 15, 2015 4:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Major issues with new HSABank.com website
Replies: 9
Views: 1136

Re: Vanguard now taking orders for 10yr TIPS

Rates are low. Right now, the 10yr TBill is down to 1.77% and for the new 10yr TIP I see an indicative yield of 0.175% - which implies a 1.595% breakeven inflation rate. The 20yr maturing in Jan 2025 currently shows in the secondary market at VBS a YTM spread of .200/.188 Shouldn't it be closer to 0...
by Angst
Thu Jan 15, 2015 1:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard now taking orders for 10yr TIPS
Replies: 5
Views: 1386

Re: More on rising interest rates

I assume "the market" is factoring in all relevant macroeconomic variables in asset pricing, so I don't have to. Yes! Thank goodness for that. :) And thank you for your last response above. I think I understand and can agree with all you've said. My shortcomings in expressing myself somet...
by Angst
Wed Jan 14, 2015 9:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More on rising interest rates
Replies: 11
Views: 1256

Re: More on rising interest rates

Perhaps this would be clearer: Low growth means business don't borrow as much, therefore the supply of bonds is lower, therefore the price is higher, therefore the yield less. By demand for borrowings, I meant on the supply side (the borrower), not the demand side (the lender). The would be more de...
by Angst
Wed Jan 14, 2015 9:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More on rising interest rates
Replies: 11
Views: 1256

Re: More on rising interest rates

Price and yield (rate) of a bond are two ways of expressing the same thing. It is supply and demand that determines price, which determines yield. Absent quantitative easing (QE), the Fed determines only the very shortest term rates. With QE, they were attempting to influence price of longer-term b...
by Angst
Wed Jan 14, 2015 6:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More on rising interest rates
Replies: 11
Views: 1256

Re: More on rising interest rates

It's interesting to me how we always seem to assess or characterize US govt fixed income in terms of interest rates, not price. Compared to the US, international economies seem to be hurting and the dollar has been strengthening, and if foreign money comes in to buy the safety of US bills, notes and...
by Angst
Wed Jan 14, 2015 5:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More on rising interest rates
Replies: 11
Views: 1256

Re: which Brokerage do you use...why?

I use Vanguard VBS b/c it's convenient to keep the majority of my accounts with Vanguard and I use their ETFs, all of which are commission free through VBS. And buying TIPS at auction through VBS is easy. I also use TDAmeritrade b/c my HSABank account uses them, and they carry a good variety of comm...
by Angst
Wed Jan 14, 2015 12:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: which Brokerage do you use...why?
Replies: 33
Views: 2470

Re: Milevsky's got me thinking immediate annuity????

Why annuitize more of your retirement income when you are not maximizing the value of the inflation indexed annuity you already have: Social Security. Your $3200/month SS will be worth about $4224/month if deferred to age 70. That plus your $1800 pension will provide over $6k/month in income, with ...
by Angst
Wed Jan 14, 2015 9:50 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Milevsky's got me thinking immediate annuity????
Replies: 28
Views: 2460

Re: Mice in the house

Epsilon Delta wrote:Mammals are a class, not a kingdom.

Ughhh... I meant to confirm that and got lost in the composition... Thanks. Time for a quick edit.
by Angst
Tue Jan 13, 2015 1:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Mice in the house
Replies: 86
Views: 5117

Re: Russia and energy in EM

Here are some Russia ETFs for anyone with play money burning a hole in their pocket, from etfdb.com : Price Assets x1000 Vol. ER YTD RSX Mrkt Vectors Russia $14.55 $1,538,304 15,810,310 .63 -0.62% RSXJ Mrkt Vectors Russia Small-Cap $19.10 $ 53,737 46,873 .67 -3.78% ERUS iShares MSCI Russia Capped In...
by Angst
Tue Jan 13, 2015 1:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Russia and energy in EM
Replies: 19
Views: 1656

Re: Mice in the house

If humane traps are every bit as efficient as inhumane ones (and in my experience they are), WHY would you not opt for humane ones? You don't have to be a "tree hugger" to not want to kill mammals when there is no benefit to doing so. I just don't get it. Fair question. I guess it depends...
by Angst
Tue Jan 13, 2015 1:13 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Mice in the house
Replies: 86
Views: 5117

Re: 30 year TIPs yield at 1.98%- back up the truck, beep, be

Is the 30 year TIPS yield now ~1.4%? Even as 30 nominal treasuries are under 2.50%? According to http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield 0.76%. That says inflation should be about 1.7%. Actually, 0.76% is from Jan 2nd. As of today ...
by Angst
Mon Jan 12, 2015 6:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year TIPs yield at 1.98%- back up the truck, beep, beep..
Replies: 499
Views: 104412

Re: Why Is "Deflation" A Bad Thing??? How To Prepare/Profit

As I understand it, if you think bad deflation is coming and you need to alter your AA, then you need to: 1) pay off all your debt 2) raise your level of cash 3) buy long-term Treasuries or Zeroes. Yes. Probably the best strategies. Unfortunately the horse has rather bolted in that the 30 year Trea...
by Angst
Mon Jan 12, 2015 12:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Is "Deflation" A Bad Thing??? How To Prepare/Profit?
Replies: 87
Views: 6169

Re: Performance of fundamental indexes

https://advisors.vanguard.com/iwe/pdf/ICRTPX.pdf?cbdForceDomain=true Interesting. If you use a factor framework for the analysis, the only diversified actively managed equity fund (per the list in the article) with signficant alpha (value added) beyond factor exposure is PRIMECAP. The Vanguard MidC...
by Angst
Mon Jan 12, 2015 9:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Performance of fundamental indexes
Replies: 21
Views: 1816

Re: Equal Weighted Funds - Better?

...OK, I'm relatively new to the EW debate but I certainly understand the concept. One thing I don't understand is that a quick trip to the "Holdings" tab of the Gugg Rusell 2000 link above shows me that the holdings within the fund are nowhere close to an equal weighting; individually th...
by Angst
Mon Jan 12, 2015 7:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equal Weighted Funds - Better?
Replies: 31
Views: 2594

Re: Mice in the house

I used glue traps when I once had a brief mouse problem although I'm in total agreement with the notion that dieing in one of them is truly horrific and inhumane. However, here's what I did with all my captured critters: I grabbed the poor victims by the scruff of their little necks (thumb & ind...
by Angst
Sun Jan 11, 2015 6:11 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Mice in the house
Replies: 86
Views: 5117

Re: Major issues with new HSABank.com website

Me too. I sent them a msg a couple days ago b/c I could find no way to transfer funds btw HSABank and TDAM. I still have heard nothing back from them but have not gone back to the website to try again.
by Angst
Thu Jan 08, 2015 6:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Major issues with new HSABank.com website
Replies: 9
Views: 1136

Re: Remind me: why am I holding VG's longer-term TIPS fund?

I've never really understood why anyone would want to hold the short term TIPs fund, given how well T Bills already protect against inflation. But with the sudden flattening of the yield curve it seems like the short term TIPs fund might now be preferable to the other, longer term TIPs fund.
by Angst
Wed Jan 07, 2015 8:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Remind me: why am I holding VG's longer-term TIPS fund?
Replies: 31
Views: 3426

Re: Poll: Favorite Coping Strategies for Volatility

Say what???! I picked "Other":

Diversification.
by Angst
Wed Jan 07, 2015 8:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Favorite Coping Strategies for Volatility
Replies: 41
Views: 2654

Re: Poll: Do you own I Bonds?

Right now, poll results show 33% not holding I Bonds. My suspicion is that this group includes a fair number of high income earners for whom I Bonds would be something of a bother and an over-complication, contributing so little to their overall portfolio as to not to be worth the trouble.
by Angst
Wed Jan 07, 2015 6:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Do you own I Bonds?
Replies: 62
Views: 5475

Re: TIPS spread as inflation prediction

Tell me if you disagree, but it appears to me that short term (5 yr) TIPs are fairly attractive right now, preferable to me over I Bonds, even though they are still very different creatures (eg. I Bonds create tax deferred space while TIPs eat it up). On the long term side of things, EE Savings Bond...
by Angst
Wed Jan 07, 2015 6:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS spread as inflation prediction
Replies: 22
Views: 2447

Re: 2015 Predictions: Most Popular Topics

Should I buy I Bonds now or wait?
by Angst
Tue Jan 06, 2015 10:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2015 Predictions: Most Popular Topics
Replies: 38
Views: 2413

Re: Price of Oil Dropping Good or Bad?

It's good as far as I'm concerned. Less than $20 to fill the tank is pretty nice! Just gotta watch out for things like potholes, poor lighting, rickety old bridges... Here in Missouri we don't believe in taxing ourselves to pay for things like that. :wink:
by Angst
Tue Jan 06, 2015 6:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Price of Oil Dropping Good or Bad?
Replies: 15
Views: 946

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

OK, are you suggesting a 3500 drop would define "freefall"? In one day? I think we need to be a little more specific. How much of a drop in one day or over a series of days (how many?) suffices to define a "freefall" in stock prices? Or is it like a "I'll know it when I see...
by Angst
Tue Jan 06, 2015 3:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1195
Views: 221645

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Oh, gee. here we are at 1:30 Wall Street time and the DOW is down another 210 points on top of -330 yesterday. That's 540 points so far and the day isn't done! Have we established any criteria for a "freefall"? No, not by a long shot. For me, the criteria was defined in 1987. Today's 210 ...
by Angst
Tue Jan 06, 2015 1:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1195
Views: 221645

Re: HSA Bank Low Balance Fee- How is it paid?

I spoke with them a month or so ago when I changed my balance to almost zero in order to put it all in TDAM and now at the end of each month $5.50 ($2.50 + $3) is deducted from my acct. I leave a little in there to cover it. I also asked what if the balance were zero? They said they'd pull it from m...
by Angst
Mon Jan 05, 2015 2:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HSA Bank Low Balance Fee- How is it paid?
Replies: 23
Views: 1662

Re: I-Bonds purchased monthly can be redeemed when?

an i bond purchased in dec 2014 is 1 year old on dec 1st 2015. an i bond purchased in november 2014 is 1 year old on nov 1st 2015.
by Angst
Mon Jan 05, 2015 11:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I-Bonds purchased monthly can be redeemed when?
Replies: 10
Views: 752

Re: I-Bonds purchased monthly can be redeemed when?

If you go to Treasury Direct and click the main I Bonds link (no need to login), you can read about the basics of I Bonds and in the middle of the page you'll see the answer to your question:

http://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/res ... ibonds.htm
by Angst
Mon Jan 05, 2015 11:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I-Bonds purchased monthly can be redeemed when?
Replies: 10
Views: 752
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