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by Angst
Fri May 22, 2015 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Cap and Value
Replies: 46
Views: 2164

Re: Market Cap and Value

I am glad we reduced the purchases of TP. Nedsaid, brought up sensitive area for us and we should never be poo-pooing. No one should be comparing woodchips and the quality tissues. I always bought the brand name that rarely went on sale, and never at 50% off. Come on, Would your spouse let you buy ...
by Angst
Thu May 21, 2015 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Missing Bonds data in Balances & Holdings
Replies: 7
Views: 506

Re: Missing Bonds data in Balances & Holdings

I have individual muni bonds and have noticed the same thing the last few days. I don't know if it is just a temporary glitch or they just no longer want to provide that information. I do miss it. It's a known problem now, they say they're working on it: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.p...
by Angst
Thu May 21, 2015 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Missing Bonds data in Balances & Holdings
Replies: 7
Views: 506

Re: Missing Bonds data in Balances & Holdings

I don't hold any bonds at Vanguard. But I do sometimes use the Fixed Income Trading page to find out the prices of bonds. If you want up-to-date information, you could try that (unless it has also been affected). Thank you for the suggestion. You're correct, current/closing price changes can be fou...
by Angst
Thu May 21, 2015 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Not your father's Total Bond Market Fund anymore
Replies: 60
Views: 6443

Re: Not your father's Total Bond Market Fund anymore

More questions than answers: Are we becoming Japan? What are the best, reasonably high total return "safe " fixed income alternatives? No. Also the average adult American weights 181 lbs., the average Japanese adult: 131 lbs. getting farther away from the Japanese all the time. The are no...
by Angst
Thu May 21, 2015 12:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bother With Bonds? (book shout out)
Replies: 7
Views: 1453

Re: Why Bother With Bonds? (book shout out)

Thanks for the recommendation, Kevin. I've added it to my list. And I really do miss reading one of our esteemed, former posters who now limits himself to PMs.

Angie
by Angst
Wed May 20, 2015 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds - Picking up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller?
Replies: 50
Views: 4940

Re: Bonds - Picking up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller?

Listen to what Nisi says above and dispense with the notion that we have good, reliable ideas about where interest rates are going to go and when they're gonna do it, let alone that we should be adjusting for those ideas. And btw, your numbers about what "Uncle Sam" has been paying recentl...
by Angst
Wed May 20, 2015 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Missing Bonds data in Balances & Holdings
Replies: 7
Views: 506

Re: Missing Bonds data in Balances & Holdings

I guess not many people here hold individual bonds, or at least they don't watch daily prices much. Anyhow, not that I'm constantly following prices, it struck me that there has been no data. Here's Vanguard's response for anyone who's interested: There is a known issue regarding the feed from our o...
by Angst
Sat May 16, 2015 5:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Missing Bonds data in Balances & Holdings
Replies: 7
Views: 506

Missing Bonds data in Balances & Holdings

Has anyone noticed that in their Balances & Holdings from Vanguard that individual bond holdings have not been showing daily price change stats (i.e. $ and % change)? At least for the last three or four days, I believe, mine have not. I'll get around to asking Vanguard if they don't come back by...
by Angst
Fri May 15, 2015 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard's Web Site So Bad?
Replies: 64
Views: 4976

Re: Why is Vanguard's Web Site So Bad?

Index funds expense ratios have been gradually approaching fungibility (is that a word?) for years. These days the difference between Fidelity Spartan funds and Vanguard are negligible. IShares has some reasonable ERs as does Schwab. Things have come a long way. I would gladly pay 0.01 or 0.02 extra...
by Angst
Wed May 13, 2015 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: part two of Facts and fiction on value investing bl
Replies: 70
Views: 4500

Re: part two of Facts and fiction on value investing bl

In my opinion, Warren Buffett does not fit the criteria of the classic value investor. I call him a value-oriented investor. As his partner Charlie Munger would say, it is better to buy a great company at a good price than to buy a good company at a great price. Buffett started out as a value guy b...
by Angst
Mon Apr 27, 2015 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: "Thank you for restoring access..."
Replies: 3
Views: 826

Vanguard: "Thank you for restoring access..."

Vanguard spent 38¢ to send me a letter which I received today that says: Thank you for restoring access on 04/19/2015. As you know, our secure website allows you to monitor all your accounts and conduct most types of transactions online. If you have any questions, please call... Huh? (my italics abo...
by Angst
Wed Apr 22, 2015 10:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Visiting Nashville during the summer
Replies: 34
Views: 1641

Re: Visiting Nashville during the summer

If you like the college vibe, check out the area at the southern edge (tip) of Vanderbilt on Hillsboro Rd. (ave?). There are lots of restaurants and shops there. Fido Coffeehouse is a fixture; a little ways off (on Portland, I think) is Bongo Java. There's also a thriving college/indie music scene t...
by Angst
Mon Apr 20, 2015 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: new i-bond rate?
Replies: 28
Views: 4736

Re: new i-bond rate?

Stated differently, if I buy a TIPS bond today and redeem it 5 years later, could I get back less than what I paid for it if inflation rates are negative for all or most of those 5 years? By contrast, if I buy an I bond today and redeem it 5 years later, will I get back at least what I paid for it,...
by Angst
Mon Apr 20, 2015 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."
Replies: 146
Views: 15405

Re: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."

From my understanding, for a Series I saving bond purchased with a fixed component of zero percent to earn more than the Series EE savings bond, the inflation rate over time has to be higher than the fixed interest rate on the Series EE, currently .10 percent. Do you think inflation will average mo...
by Angst
Mon Apr 20, 2015 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."
Replies: 146
Views: 15405

Re: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."

^^^ Given the graph above, I would not be surprised if history repeats itself in terms of yield not appreciating for an extended period of time. We are now "let's call it a good 7 years into this low yield environment", only 11 more years to go. Those EE bonds are looking sweeter by the d...
by Angst
Sun Apr 19, 2015 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MIT Billion Prices: Down? Broken? Discontinued?
Replies: 2
Views: 643

Re: MIT Billion Prices: Down? Broken? Discontinued?

Nisi, not sure if this helps you, but charts still appear to be available at the State Street website where they've been a "partner" with the BPP for several years now; I don't see any postings there to suggest anything's changed with the BPP, although clearly that website is not working r...
by Angst
Sun Apr 19, 2015 4:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: how to deal with it [regret over past investing choices]
Replies: 74
Views: 5917

Re: how to deal with it [regret over past investing choices]

I am now versed in Bogle way of investing but back in 2008 I wasnt. [snip]... I plan on holding for the long term and adding more cash as soon as a decent correction hits. ( I have $250,000 cash waiting ) You appear have a few verses left to learn. Will you let us know once that next correction has...
by Angst
Tue Apr 14, 2015 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 19 year old with Roth IRA
Replies: 12
Views: 1379

Re: 19 year old with Roth IRA

If it were my child I'd consider suggesting they invest: 95% Total Stock Mrkt 05% Total Bond Mrkt If you couldn't invest such a small amount in Total Bond at the outset, I'd just go 100% Total Stock. I'd look at it as an opportunity to challenge the new investor's ability to stick with their equity ...
by Angst
Tue Apr 14, 2015 3:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How should I name my home Wi-Fi network?
Replies: 55
Views: 4697

Re: How should I name my home Wi-Fi network?

Use "George", unless you happen to have a neighbor named George. If that's the case, use "Walter" instead. If by some remote chance you also have a neighbor named Walter, then move on to "Frank". If Frank doesn't work either, you must be living in one of those problemat...
by Angst
Tue Mar 31, 2015 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: To TIP or not to TIP (funds)?
Replies: 23
Views: 3482

Re: To TIP or not to TIP?

VIPSX fell more than VBMFX for two reasons: 1) it has a longer duration and 2) TIPS rates rose more. The 2nd point seems logical if the market was expecting the Federal Reserve to tighten the money supply. This would decrease inflationary expectations and reduce the break-even increment of nominal ...
by Angst
Mon Mar 30, 2015 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Riddle Me This [Vanguard's bond target so far from Bogle's]
Replies: 10
Views: 1903

Re: Riddle Me This

At age 45, the importance of both living below your means and contributing the maximum amount you can to your savings overwhelms the importance of what your bond % specifically is. Personally, I'd be leaning towards 10-25% bonds for someone 45 and gainfully employed. There are other factors though t...
by Angst
Mon Mar 30, 2015 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: To TIP or not to TIP (funds)?
Replies: 23
Views: 3482

Re: To TIP or not to TIP?

I'm not sure what to make of this, but in replying to one of Nisi's posts in another thread , Vanguard's Intermediate TIPS fund was added to the following graphic showing how TIPS have fared worse than other bond funds since May 2013 when the "Taper Tantrum" dropped rates for a while. TIPS...
by Angst
Mon Mar 30, 2015 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wise move to move some $ to cash before bear market?
Replies: 116
Views: 12452

Re: Wise move to move some $ to cash before bear market?

I believe I'm following a mechanical rule, based on market conditions, when I rebalance periodically.
by Angst
Mon Mar 30, 2015 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: M*: No Vanguard Funds Among Its Top Seven Inter. Bond Funds
Replies: 17
Views: 2668

Re: M*: No Vanguard Funds Among Its Top Seven Inter. Bond Fu

And if you continue the graph out to today, TIPS have yet to recover from the taper tantrum. They continue to just hover around 9.5k on the graph while the others have crept up to and beyond 10.5k It appears TIPS don't weather rate rises very well. Ouch. Livesoft - GNMA did not do better though than...
by Angst
Mon Mar 30, 2015 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: M*: No Vanguard Funds Among Its Top Seven Inter. Bond Funds
Replies: 17
Views: 2668

Re: M*: No Vanguard Funds Among Its Top Seven Inter. Bond Fu

Well Livesoft, you've made me curious so here it is. Yellow is Vanguard Intermediate TIPS, Red is their GNMA. Kinda bumpy ride there for TIPS.

Image
by Angst
Sat Mar 28, 2015 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wise move to move some $ to cash before bear market?
Replies: 116
Views: 12452

Re: Wise move to move some $ to cash before bear market?

I just read an article that described how to prepare for a bear market and listed the history of the previous bear markets over time. Since we are at an all time high , a bear market is coming , nobody knows when. The author suggested taking 20%- 30 % and putting it in cash to hold and buy in the b...
by Angst
Sat Mar 28, 2015 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015
Replies: 137
Views: 14699

Re: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015

For anyone who's inclined to indulge in the notion that actionable insight can be gained from looking at long-term trends, it might be comforting to note that the blips of 2008 and QE on this chart could easily be excised without causing any material impact on the big picture. Nonetheless, although ...
by Angst
Tue Mar 24, 2015 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard index fund security lending in 2014
Replies: 23
Views: 1861

Re: Vanguard index fund security lending in 2014

So Barry, forgive me for being a little slow, but I gather you are agreeing with JoMoney and Tanelorn above? So if lending income were high enough, the fund would still have an ER while it's overall returns could exceed its benchmark by more than the ER. Is this correct? Or are you contradicting JoM...
by Angst
Tue Mar 24, 2015 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard index fund security lending in 2014
Replies: 23
Views: 1861

Re: Vanguard index fund security lending in 2014

"Expense ratio" is calculated using specific items, it doesn't include additional income earned, it doesn't even include all the expenses incurred by the fund (-it doesn't include 12b-1 fees, or brokerage trading costs for the fund to buy and sell shares among other things). Some funds ha...
by Angst
Tue Mar 24, 2015 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard index fund security lending in 2014
Replies: 23
Views: 1861

Re: Vanguard index fund security lending in 2014

Thanks Barry for posting this, it's interesting. I guess it's not surprising that not simply small cap, but small cap growth companies are more in demand for securities lending, but maybe someone can clarify another thing for me: As already pointed out, the " Ratio of security lending income/fu...
by Angst
Mon Mar 23, 2015 10:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How Do You Watch Television?
Replies: 81
Views: 6323

Re: How Do You Watch Television?

Nothing quite covered my situation:
Once they're released, I check out TV series DVDs from the library and binge-watch. That's it. Occasionally some ota TV.
by Angst
Sun Mar 22, 2015 10:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best Emergency Fund Vehicle For Long Term Low Inflation
Replies: 6
Views: 1161

Re: Best Emergency Fund Vehicle For Long Term Low Inflation

To my thinking, including "emergency" with "long term" in the same defining statement is something of a non-sequitur. If LT rates continue to be low, investing in "20 year" series EE savings bonds could prove to be good, safe bets with certain advantages, such as tax de...
by Angst
Sun Mar 22, 2015 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Most Likely Portfolio Peril — Inflation or Deflation?
Replies: 40
Views: 4065

Re: The Most Likely Portfolio Peril — Inflation or Deflation

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/Speeches/2002/20021121/default.htm Ben Bernanke thinks deflation will never become a serious problem under fiat currency system. This belief is called 'the bernanke doctrine'. I found this paper to be really interesting, and I can't help quoting Bernanke's ex...
by Angst
Sun Mar 22, 2015 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VGPMX [Vanguard Precious Metals And Mining Fund]
Replies: 24
Views: 2617

Re: VGPMX [Vanguard Precious Metals And Mining Fund]

You have to decide if you believe in the managers behind VGPMX, at least one of whom is very new. I suggest looking at the actual holdings of VGPMX over the last five years, and ask yourself if you are comfortable with some of the choices made. If I'm not mistaken, VGPMX used to have significant ho...
by Angst
Sat Mar 21, 2015 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where is Larry Swedroe
Replies: 18
Views: 4369

Re: Where is Larry Swedroe

I conjured up some information online about Andrew Berkin, Ph.D... HOUSTON, Sept. 16, 2013 /PRNewswire-iReach/ -- Bridgeway Capital Management, Inc., investment adviser to the Bridgeway Funds, announced today that quantitative investment research leader Andrew L. Berkin, Ph.D. has joined the firm's ...
by Angst
Wed Mar 18, 2015 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking for dirt cheap commissions on DFA funds
Replies: 24
Views: 2868

Re: Looking for dirt cheap commissions on DFA funds

In my employers 401(k) at Schwab I can buy DFA funds in my Personal Choice Retirement Account for $15 a trade. You certainly would not want to set up monthly $100 purchases for this trading cost, but for a one time purchase of $10,000 or $20,000, the cost of the trade is lost in the noise. Ralph $1...
by Angst
Wed Mar 18, 2015 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dollar falls after Fed policy statement released
Replies: 10
Views: 1223

Re: Dollar falls after Fed policy statement released

More proof that nobody knows nothin'? All the news I had heard predicted a drop in the US markets if 'patient' was removed from the Fed statement; instead, the opposite occurred. On top of that, even bond funds jumped on the news. While the word "patient" itself was removed, the net chang...
by Angst
Wed Mar 18, 2015 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PXSV has changed indexes
Replies: 128
Views: 11335

Re: PXSV has changed indexes

JKL looks pretty good on all fronts except for number of holdings, ca. 250. Our inherited wisdom from Larry was that we need 500 or more holdings down in SCV. But I dunno, do we really? Was Larry just talking his book? Actually, Larry can be fairly forgiving when it comes to the number of companies...
by Angst
Wed Mar 18, 2015 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dollar falls after Fed policy statement released
Replies: 10
Views: 1223

Re: Dollar falls after Fed policy statement released

Here's what changed in the new Fed statement . Kevin Kevin, thank you for posting this! Really interesting. Btw, an easier read can be had by opening or downloading http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2015/03/18/Fed%20statements%20compare%20March%2015.pdf which will gi...
by Angst
Wed Mar 18, 2015 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Larry portfolio vs. Merriman 4-fund portfolio
Replies: 15
Views: 2658

Re: The Larry portfolio vs. Merriman 4-fund portfolio

Portfolio CAGR SD Sharpe End Neg Yrs Avg Loss Max DD Neg TSM Yrs Rtrn 60/40 TSM 9.67% 11.18% 0.47 $530,407 8 -6.95% -16.9% (2008) ---- 60/40 Merriman 10.70% 11.32% 0.55 $791,187 7 -7.05% -15.84%(2008) 3.44% 30/70 Larry 9.67% 7.82% 0.63 $528,402 6 -2.04% - 4.82%(1972) 10.48% Thanks Browser, I've alw...
by Angst
Wed Mar 18, 2015 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international is too much?
Replies: 113
Views: 9879

Re: How much international is too much?

[snip]... Once your international allocation reaches the cap-weights in the global stock index (about 50% U.S./50% International), then your economic and revenue exposure to various regions of the world is approximately the same as their GDP weights (about one-third U.S., one-third other developed ...
by Angst
Tue Mar 17, 2015 7:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 242
Views: 25973

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

My point that 97% claim SS before age 67 was with regard to the claim sometimes made that few Americans can wait to claim. Sadly, that claim is probably true for a majority of Americans, but certainly there is a sizeable minority for which it is not true. There seem to be several reasons why only 3...
by Angst
Thu Mar 12, 2015 7:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why not use inflation-adjusted SPIA?
Replies: 117
Views: 5394

Re: Why not use inflation-adjusted SPIA?

Can someone point me to the evidence that insurance companies use TIPS for SPIAs to any large extent? Not sure if this helps (it doesn't specifically refer to SPIA's) but this NY Fed 2010 document states (on pg. 15) that "Insurance companies hold 2.48 percent of the TIPS and 2.96 percent of Tr...
by Angst
Tue Mar 10, 2015 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab Intelligent Portfolios [now live]
Replies: 380
Views: 38141

Re: Schwab Intelligent Portfolios

Don46 wrote:I'm very interested in this new program, which is now launched I see... [snip...]

Don, you should check out this current thread which has been discussing Schwab's newly released program:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=160555
by Angst
Mon Mar 09, 2015 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 24522

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

When it comes to predicting the future, the unknown always overwhelms the known. I have no trouble with Dr. Bernstein coming to conclusions based on facts/history, it's just that the big picture will always remain vague and cloudy, like that crystal ball, and it's that big picture which will determi...
by Angst
Mon Mar 09, 2015 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ - Why Vanguard is Secretive on Stock ETF's
Replies: 13
Views: 1567

Re: Today's WSJ (March 9th, 2015)

Does this one work for anyone?
Deleting cookies first sometimes helps too. Just fishin' here though.
by Angst
Mon Mar 09, 2015 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 24522

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

In what years did GDP rise more than 10%? Amazed at that. 1941 I could believe (war buildup). But others. Real GDP? The Source takes you to the website where the graph was included in an article. It appears however that the data used to create the graph was pulled from this website . Nice site! Tha...
by Angst
Mon Mar 09, 2015 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab Intelligent Portfolios [now live]
Replies: 380
Views: 38141

Re: Schwab Intelligent Portfolios is live

Wow! Regarding the graphic posted above , Schwab is showing a negative correlation between "Treasuries" and all of their equity categories listed. Around here, just hinting that treasuries might occasionally show negative correlations with stocks can get you raked over the coals. Do you t...
by Angst
Mon Mar 09, 2015 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard et al disintermediated?
Replies: 39
Views: 2912

Re: Vanguard et al disintermediated?

The article is interesting to read, but I'm not holding my breath. It's appealing and sounds reasonable, but long ago so was the notion of everyone flying their own personal vehicle to work everyday. For now, I'm more inclined to look forward to negative expense ratios and certain index funds routin...
by Angst
Mon Mar 09, 2015 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab Intelligent Portfolios [now live]
Replies: 380
Views: 38141

Re: Schwab Intelligent Portfolios is live

Wow! Regarding the graphic posted above , Schwab is showing a negative correlation between "Treasuries" and all of their equity categories listed. Around here, just hinting that treasuries might occasionally show negative correlations with stocks can get you raked over the coals. Do you th...

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