Search found 1109 matches

by Angst
Wed Jul 29, 2015 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Moving from TIPs fund to TIPs ladder???
Replies: 49
Views: 2814

Re: Moving from TIPs fund to TIPs ladder???

ughhh... while composing my reply to stlutz's post , #cruncher comes to the rescue. Well, I'll just leave my post because it's still part of the root of my perspective and logic for maintaining a small TIPS ladder. Here it is, and thanks #cruncher for your post above. Has anyone here or in print els...
by Angst
Tue Jul 28, 2015 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Moving from TIPs fund to TIPs ladder???
Replies: 49
Views: 2814

Re: Moving from TIPs fund to TIPs ladder???

... re. building a ladder within Vanguard Brokerage ... is there at least a summary page for the TIPs ladder that shows current market value etc? An IRA statement from Vanguard has a summary section like: Traditional IRA account $100,000 Vanguard funds $40,000 Brokerage assets $60,000 So if TIPS ar...
by Angst
Wed Jul 22, 2015 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlations, eh?
Replies: 18
Views: 2811

Re: Correlations, eh?

Thank you nisi for presenting Wealthfront's graphic of asset class correlations. You, as well as any Boglehead, is surely aware of the pouncing upon that can ensue when one has the temerity to make a post suggesting the existence of any negative correlations between equity and us govt bonds. :happy ...
by Angst
Sat Jul 18, 2015 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10-Year TIPS Auction July 23 2015
Replies: 29
Views: 2781

Re: 10-Year TIPS Auction July 23 2015

abuss368 wrote:Are TIPS popular anymore with inflation expectations so low?

Yes abuss, TIPS are popular with some people, but their popularity doesn't have a lot to do with "inflation expectations". It does however have something to do with inflation un-expectations.
by Angst
Tue Jul 14, 2015 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA to run ETFs for John Hancock
Replies: 29
Views: 3591

Re: DFA to run ETFs for John Hancock

Unless I've missed information to the contrary, DFA is just the fund adviser (the portfolio manager, who picks the securities and so on). Lots of mutual fund companies run some or all funds using in-house managers. But for some others, they may instead hire another group to be the fund adviser. The...
by Angst
Tue Jul 14, 2015 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA to run ETFs for John Hancock
Replies: 29
Views: 3591

Re: DFA to run ETFs for John Hancock

And as Rick has stated, there was a certain inevitability to this given the amount of money to be made. In my view, the issue is not the decision to move into the ETF market. Rather it is their choice of partner (JH). Yes, it sure does sound kinda sleazy up front! But for someone in a lousy (JH) 40...
by Angst
Tue Jul 14, 2015 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA to run ETFs for John Hancock
Replies: 29
Views: 3591

Re: DFA to run ETFs for John Hancock

I have to say I'm a little amused by all the barbs and attitude directed at DFA. "John Hancock"... now that's always amusing! But the idea that DFA is beginning to develop its ETF expertise and put product out there on the market is nothing but good news to me. I don't care how difficult i...
by Angst
Sun Jul 12, 2015 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Portfolio Shortfall
Replies: 37
Views: 2695

Re: Larry Portfolio Shortfall

This the LP defined in the NYT article and subsequent discussion on this board here: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=1256836#p1256836 https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=146139 In the reference provided, I did not see a specific set of allocations to compare to a tradit...
by Angst
Sun Jul 12, 2015 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Portfolio Shortfall
Replies: 37
Views: 2695

Re: Larry Portfolio Shortfall

packer16 wrote:30/70 LP (30% DFSVX, 70% VBMFX)

This is not the "Larry Portfolio". There is a current thread titled How do you do the Larry Portfolio?, in which the LP is discussed and defined. The returns might be better or worse than what you got, I'm not sure, but they will be different.
by Angst
Sat Jul 11, 2015 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you do the Larry Portfolio?
Replies: 48
Views: 3703

Re: How do you do the Larry Portfolio?

That's the kind of risk ( inflation destroying long-term bond returns , the SCV premium not being there, sluggish emerging markets) that won't show up as simple volatility on the back-test ... It's more an unknown existential risk The LP is limited to 5-yr treasury notes, and I assume Larry would l...
by Angst
Fri Jul 10, 2015 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Age 30, Moving from 15% to 25% tax bracket: Should I sell all my I-Bonds and rebuy them?
Replies: 7
Views: 857

Re: Age 30, Moving from 15% to 25% tax bracket: Should I sell all my I-Bonds and rebuy them?

Makes sense to me. I'm paring back my I-Bonds too, at least those paying 0 fixed rate. Before you sell any that are less than 5 years old, be sure you've booked 3 months of zero % returns. I rely on #cruncher's website for figuring out this kind of thing. Can't recommend it enough: http://eyebonds.i...
by Angst
Thu Jul 09, 2015 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Forget about Bonds?
Replies: 41
Views: 4195

Re: Forget about Bonds?

watchnerd wrote:So bad...shameful, even.

And WTH is 'Exponential Technology'?

No, no! It'll complement your "derivative technology" allocation really well.
by Angst
Thu Jul 09, 2015 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Forget about Bonds?
Replies: 41
Views: 4195

Re: Forget about Bonds?

"Exponential Technology"
Wow! Where do I get that? :shock:
by Angst
Thu Jul 09, 2015 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg - "The Hugely Profitable, Wholly Legal Way to Game the Stock Market" (Front running index fund purchases)
Replies: 43
Views: 4475

Re: Bloomberg - "The Hugely Profitable, Wholly Legal Way to Game the Stock Market" (Front running index fund purchases)

I think this later article by Matt Levine at Bloomberg (One of my favorite financial columnists) is much better and much fairer. http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-07-07/can-you-really-game-index-funds- "What should you make of this? A couple of things. First: The value of market-makin...
by Angst
Thu Jul 09, 2015 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Brokers Let You Sort Individual Bonds by YTW?
Replies: 2
Views: 220

Re: What Brokers Let You Sort Individual Bonds by YTW?

My experience in buying/selling individual bonds is limited to TIPS and I've done all of it through Vanguard Brokerage, but I can see that you can sort all bonds, TIPS, corporates, munis, etc. by YTW if you like.
by Angst
Wed Jul 08, 2015 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: NYSE trading halted [for more than 3 hours]
Replies: 32
Views: 2955

Re: NYSE trading halted

yes, end of days is nigh.
by Angst
Mon Jul 06, 2015 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 112
Views: 11626

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

What is the advantage of TIPS over I bonds? Off the top of my head, better rates and no purchase limits. In terms of the 0% yield for I Bonds compared to a negative yield with TIPS? Are you serious? http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=re...
by Angst
Mon Jul 06, 2015 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 112
Views: 11626

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

sawhorse wrote:What is the advantage of TIPS over I bonds?

Off the top of my head, better rates and no purchase limits.
by Angst
Sun Jul 05, 2015 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Bond Market Bubble
Replies: 44
Views: 4505

Re: U.S. Bond Market Bubble

...I'm not sure treasuries are as safe as we all think. The govt has a massive amount of debt. Corporations aren't even close to that number. As far as I'm aware, no government has ever paid off its debt, but that may be beside the point. The federal government has methods available to it that no c...
by Angst
Sat Jul 04, 2015 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Bond Market Bubble
Replies: 44
Views: 4505

Re: U.S. Bond Market Bubble

Current ten year treasury yield is 2.4% The last historical era where we were at that level was in 1942. Annualized returns of long-term government bonds for the 40 years 1942-1982 was 2.3% Annualized inflation over that same period was 4.6% For the period 1942-1991 an investor in long-term governm...
by Angst
Tue Jun 30, 2015 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 112
Views: 11626

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

Should an investor focus on beating inflation over the long term with equities or investing in unexpected inflation "insurance" with TIPS? I've had no reason to give up on TIPS - I continue to hold/accumulate TIPS at auction. I'm kinda confused about what it is you're after here. The two ...
by Angst
Sat Jun 27, 2015 6:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads are more aggressive...
Replies: 57
Views: 6620

Re: Bogleheads are more aggressive...

My suspicion is that it's #1 Smarter, or a variation on that - call it "Disciplined". Bogleheads have the discipline to live beneath their means. (Some might call that being "greedy") This has the effect of making them "rich". Wealth is relative, and if you're living be...
by Angst
Fri Jun 26, 2015 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook
Replies: 108
Views: 8751

Re: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook

Not to be funny - not at all - but I sense nothing of religion in HomerJ's comments, just agnosticism. Good thing you are not trying to be funny! It may be futile. Nobody even giggled at my boomstick index reference and I was trying to funny! :-) Ahh, now I get it. I always just assumed your pic wa...
by Angst
Fri Jun 26, 2015 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook
Replies: 108
Views: 8751

Re: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook

Not to be funny - not at all - but I sense nothing of religion in HomerJ's comments, just agnosticism. Well when it comes to putting my money somewhere, I'd trust science above agnosticism too To my thinking, science and agnosticism go hand in hand - you don't have one without the other. "Trus...
by Angst
Fri Jun 26, 2015 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook
Replies: 108
Views: 8751

Re: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook

Maynard F. Speer wrote:
HomerJ wrote:The real problem is that I believe economics is barely a science at all.

Despite science being an incomplete science .. When it comes to money, I'd still trust it above religion

Not to be funny - not at all - but I sense nothing of religion in HomerJ's comments, just agnosticism.
by Angst
Thu Jun 25, 2015 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25
Replies: 331
Views: 27004

Re: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25

I think that last part might be key as well. Yes price/expected return is high, but prices are high across the board. We are not in an economic boom time. Despite the recovery in investment prices, recovery in other parts of the economy has been very slow and tedious. https://research.stlouisfed.or...
by Angst
Thu Jun 18, 2015 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?
Replies: 36
Views: 4923

Re: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?

Surprised I'm the first to post the results: Yield of 1.142%. Not spectacular by any means, but better rates than we've had at auction for a while at least. Treasury Results PDF Yes, but too bad the auction wasn't held a week ago Wednesday when the RCMT rate rose to 1.25%; it had dipped a fair bit ...
by Angst
Thu Jun 18, 2015 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard website down
Replies: 17
Views: 1835

Re: Vanguard website down

I owe Firefox an apology. I updated yesterday and tabs have been funky since then, so of course I just assumed... Wrong. Oh well, I could always check on that lone Fidelity fund I still cling to.
by Angst
Tue Jun 16, 2015 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 30+ year "set it and rebalance it" portfolio thoughts
Replies: 18
Views: 2091

Re: 30+ year "set it and rebalance it" portfolio thoughts

[snip]... 07% in TIAA Real Estate Account. Why? I like prime numbers... I like that too, for some reason, but I'm 6% REITs. I wouldn't mind bumping it to 7%, but then actually, I'd be 3.5% US REITs and 3.5% Int'l REITs. Those aren't primes. But wait! 3% is prime, so I'm already on board! Never mind...
by Angst
Sat Jun 13, 2015 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 394
Views: 42561

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

. On defensive equity - this recent paper by Novy-Marx on "Understanding Defensive Equity" may be of interest. http://rnm.simon.rochester.edu/research/UDE.pdf His conclusions: Over the last 45 years defensive stocks have delivered higher returns than the most aggressive stocks, and defens...
by Angst
Sat Jun 13, 2015 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 394
Views: 42561

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Wonderful list and I want to sincerely thank you for all your input on this thread lack_ey #4 is obviously an unknown but is insightful it seems to me. Big +1 from me too. Thanks lack_ey. and grap, your current signature serves me well! "If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it ...
by Angst
Fri Jun 12, 2015 11:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 394
Views: 42561

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

What exactly are you looking for? How does one decide between stocks and bonds in a portfolio? It depends on a lot of things, including returns goals, personal risk tolerance, etc. If you want to do a straight-up MPT analysis, then what do you think the expected returns (over the risk-free rate), v...
by Angst
Fri Jun 12, 2015 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 394
Views: 42561

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

lack_ey wrote:Nothing special about 10%; it could be 5% or whatever else.

Until someone can give me a better rationale than just a hunch for what percentage of QSPIX one ought to include in their portfolio, I find it hard to justify anything.
by Angst
Fri Jun 12, 2015 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?
Replies: 36
Views: 4923

Re: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?

May I ask, just how much are you purchasing at these auctions? $10K, more, less? If one is funding a Roth, you only have so much in annual contributions to such an account. My 401k offers a brokerage window, but the fees and use of it are onerous making it somewhat cumbersome to add there. G2bO, I'...
by Angst
Thu Jun 11, 2015 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?
Replies: 36
Views: 4923

Re: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?

I cannot get excited when I hear that a 30 year TIP is going for a bit over 1%. As a retiree my goal has always been to build a 25 year old ladder using TIPs and be done with retirement. Then I could invest whatever is left in the equity market. But with negative yields until 2020 I cannot see how ...
by Angst
Thu Jun 11, 2015 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?
Replies: 36
Views: 4923

Re: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?

and grok's hoped for 1.125% is looking quite reasonable, indeed. :)
by Angst
Thu Jun 11, 2015 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 394
Views: 42561

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

To grap and Random Walker, Thank you for posting your % commitments to QSPIX. I'm still a little unclear as to how you decided how much to invest. If the rationale for adding QSPIX is to increase one's portfolio Sharpe ratio, how much QSPIX do you add? If just a little QSPIX (say 10%) is all that is...
by Angst
Thu Jun 11, 2015 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 394
Views: 42561

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

. It has performed well so far - we have 33 months (almost 3 years) of live returns. See pg 58 of link for returns from Sept. 2012 to Dec 2013. https://www.azasrs.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/IC%20PACKET%20-%208-18-14.pdf - if we add to this the QSPIX returns we get: Sept 2012 - May 2015 (33 months)...
by Angst
Wed Jun 10, 2015 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 394
Views: 42561

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

I believe how QSPIX affects a portfolio depends on where you take assets from to create the position. If you take from the equity side, I believe you would likely keep expected return about the same and likely decrease portfolio volatility. If you take from the bond side, you would increase expecte...
by Angst
Sat Jun 06, 2015 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?
Replies: 137
Views: 19669

Re: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?

Predicatable, consistent, stable, reliable... even sort of comforting, like the seasons. Sounds like a good, safe investment to me! :)
by Angst
Sat Jun 06, 2015 5:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?
Replies: 36
Views: 4923

Re: 30 year tips auction: 6/11; yield 1.125%?

So the next thrice-yearly 30 year tips auction will be announced next Thursday June 11th. The actual auction date is Thursday June 18th. Current secondary market [real] yield is 1.063%. The auction often tails so I'm hoping for a 1.125% [real] yield. At these levels I'll be making a substantial pur...
by Angst
Sat Jun 06, 2015 4:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?
Replies: 137
Views: 19669

Re: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?

If things go the "right" way with a taper tantrum II, do you think maybe the Fed will end up providing you with an opportunity for converting those nominal rungs to TIPS? I don't understand the question. What does the Fed have to do with converting nominals to TIPS? I use a broker for tha...
by Angst
Thu Jun 04, 2015 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?
Replies: 137
Views: 19669

Re: Is it time to give-up on TIPS?

The question is, when the Fed acts and rates are so low, will the financial system be under some stress? I think TIPS will be vulnerable then, as they were during the taper tantrum. When the Fed pushes rates up, TIPS will probably once again lead the sell-off. This quote from the interview kind of ...
by Angst
Thu Jun 04, 2015 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Market is the optimal portfolio. Do you follow that rule?
Replies: 43
Views: 3370

Re: Global Market is the optimal portfolio. Do you follow that rule?

[snip] ... In the case of large-company stocks and long-term government bonds over 1926-2009 (SBBI data), the historic average Treasury bill rate was 3.7%. The tangent portfolio was about 46% stocks, 53% bonds, which might be within striking distance of the relative capitalization of stocks and bon...
by Angst
Wed Jun 03, 2015 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warning Signs [Economic health indicators]
Replies: 246
Views: 31957

Re: Warning Signs

In an earlier post above I tried to link to a FRED graph of the OP's data, but I didn't realize that it would just take you to the FRED site and not to the nice graph, so here it is below. Look to the lower right-hand corner to see that which might "raise an eyebrow". I think the picture c...
by Angst
Tue Jun 02, 2015 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warning Signs [Economic health indicators]
Replies: 246
Views: 31957

Re: Warning Signs

Thanks for posting. I haven't looked at the FRED recession probability graph in quite a while and I can see why you're raising an eyebrow over it at this point. Switching to the 10-yr view and dragging the graph back and forth helps one to visualize the data you've highlighted in relation to all the...
by Angst
Thu May 28, 2015 9:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Selected photos of 3-week bicycle ride around the Italian Lakes
Replies: 35
Views: 3213

Re: Selected photos of 3-week bicycle ride around the Italian Lakes

Very nice photos! It must have been a wonderful trip, even though it looks like you went through your share of spring showers. Thanks for sharing.
by Angst
Wed May 27, 2015 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard looking to license its ETF patent
Replies: 9
Views: 1494

Re: Vanguard looking to license its ETF patent

In trying to follow your link what I came to was a totally different aticle in today's FT, titled " Investment: Vanguard’s commanding position ", which might well have already been mentioned in the forum, but it's an interesting and complimentary overview of Vanguard's history and currentl...
by Angst
Wed May 27, 2015 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Missing Bonds data in Balances & Holdings
Replies: 8
Views: 713

Re: Missing Bonds data in Balances & Holdings

The numbers reappeared this morning. I'm curious, even hopeful to see if anything changes tonight, i.e. might they update sooner than they have in the past when they typically would not show up until early the following morning? We'll see.

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