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Re: Bogle on CNBC 12-16-2014: 100% USA squity

I'm not really sure that Japanese companies in 1989 had much exposure to much more than Japan. I dunno... I'm pretty sure someone here would though. I just can't help remembering how "Made In Japan" long preceded "China", and Sony, Toyota, Toshiba, Nikon, Mitsubishi, and so on.....
by Angst
Wed Dec 17, 2014 8:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle on CNBC 12-16-2014: 100% USA squity
Replies: 35
Views: 3634

Re: Bogle on CNBC 12-16-2014: 100% USA squity

Jack Bogle ,CNBC, 12-16-2014. 2. Half of US companies have exposure internationally. I don't know the exact numbers, but I have no trouble imagining that half of Japanese companies have exposure internationally as well, and did so a couple decades ago. Regardless, diversification is fundamental. I ...
by Angst
Wed Dec 17, 2014 5:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle on CNBC 12-16-2014: 100% USA squity
Replies: 35
Views: 3634

Re: [POLL] What Fixed Income Assets Do You Use?

The only thing missing from your list that I hold is series EE savings bonds.
by Angst
Tue Dec 16, 2014 11:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [POLL] What Fixed Income Assets Do You Use?
Replies: 37
Views: 1713

Re: AA and Pension?

Your overall assets determine the risk you can take in your portfolio. Asset allocation is an activity that takes place in your portfolio but is fundamentally driven by your total asset structure. This! I'd add that as much as others have variously questioned how much confidence you should place in...
by Angst
Mon Dec 15, 2014 6:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: AA and Pension?
Replies: 31
Views: 2816

Re: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective

Angst: Yes, you understood it well. By the way, go to that website and you can run statistics in real terms. See: http://dqydj.net/investments-and-returns/ for the above numbers. Ah, the url was right in front of me but I was distracted over thinking about the numbers you'd presented. This is a nic...
by Angst
Sun Dec 14, 2014 1:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective
Replies: 38
Views: 2603

Re: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective

Here is the question: What is the likelihood that in any given X years for the past 100+ you would not have achieved your goals because the stock market (S&P500) returned below : ..................5 years.....10 years........20 years lost money....11.3%........3.2%............0% 4%................
by Angst
Sun Dec 14, 2014 12:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective
Replies: 38
Views: 2603

Re: TIPS Mutual Funds

No TIPs funds here. I would be curious to know for those that hold a Vanguard TIPs fund, is it short term or otherwise? Short term TIPs fund is in many target retirement funds. A related question: If you hold a Vanguard TIPS fund, do you hold the shorter fund, the longer fund, or some of each? Jeff...
by Angst
Sun Dec 14, 2014 12:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Mutual Funds
Replies: 42
Views: 2876

Re: TIPS Mutual Funds

My impression is that a fair number of TIPS holders engage in market timing. This seems a little odd to me. Actually, I might be inclined to say I have something of an impression that people engaged in market timing have been apt to avoid holding TIPs for the last few years, due both to low real ra...
by Angst
Sun Dec 14, 2014 12:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Mutual Funds
Replies: 42
Views: 2876

Re: Is it worth purchasing Ibonds on the verge retirement?

Ganacel wrote:There's no need to use the certificate of indebtedness, right? I can just pay directly out of my linked bank account?
Yes, and when you redeem an I bond, it can go right back into your linked bank.
by Angst
Sat Dec 13, 2014 9:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it worth purchasing Ibonds on the verge retirement?
Replies: 25
Views: 2447

Re: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective

I'm gonna do some quick math here: (5x52x5)-(12x5)=1240 That is, 5 years times 52 weeks times 5 days/week minus, oh... 12 holidays/yr times 5 years equals roughly 1240 data points in each of these 5-year graphic snapshots. Ignoring the possible absence of data to the left of Jan 1st 1970, and the ce...
by Angst
Sat Dec 13, 2014 3:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective
Replies: 38
Views: 2603

Re: Using EE and/or I Bonds Instead of Bond Funds

Dunno about you, or what you mean by your politically-loaded term, but I'm a lot more interested in factually correct, which nisi is and you are not. PJW PJW, I honestly don't understand what I've said to elicit such venom, but to paraphrase Lady Geek, our interaction in this thread has ceased to b...
by Angst
Fri Dec 12, 2014 8:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using EE and/or I Bonds Instead of Bond Funds
Replies: 48
Views: 4253

Re: Using EE and/or I Bonds Instead of Bond Funds

Long-term zero correlation exactly the case with stocks and bonds. Specifically, according to the 2010 Ibbotson SBBI Yearbook, the correlation between large-company stocks and long-term government bonds from 1926 to 2009 was +0.03 . I'm perfectly happy with calling that zero, but it... ...WAS... .....
by Angst
Fri Dec 12, 2014 8:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using EE and/or I Bonds Instead of Bond Funds
Replies: 48
Views: 4253

Re: TIPS Mutual Funds

In light of the inflation picture and prospects, and the challenging environment for TIPS funds over the past few years, what are your thoughts on this asset class? Are you considering staying the course, adding this asset class, or have you previously moved out of TIPS funds? I like to think my IP...
by Angst
Fri Dec 12, 2014 6:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Mutual Funds
Replies: 42
Views: 2876

Re: Vanguard Wish List

1) Demonstrate an actual interest in responding to users' opinions about things like 2) and 3) below:
2) Improve accuracy of reports (eg., port. analysis tool notoriously inaccurate)
3) Improve quality of user interface (layout, fonts, wasted screen space, lack of display and info choices)
by Angst
Fri Dec 12, 2014 5:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Wish List
Replies: 44
Views: 2986

Re: Using EE and/or I Bonds Instead of Bond Funds

... So far, Angst's point that savings bonds arent as negatively correlated to stocks as bond funds would be (and diversity being therefore decreased) is the only downside I've seen. Unless there's something else I'm missing? Bond funds are not negatively correlated to stocks . That's a persistent ...
by Angst
Fri Dec 12, 2014 7:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using EE and/or I Bonds Instead of Bond Funds
Replies: 48
Views: 4253

Re: 'Might Jack Bogle Be Wrong for a Change?' [Int'l holding

My view is that this is a manufactured controversy to get headlines, and it is working. Jack Bogle's views on international are not that ironic if you consider how interconnected the world economy is. Even if you have a nominally 100% US portfolio, in reality, because so many companies in that port...
by Angst
Thu Dec 11, 2014 6:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Might Jack Bogle Be Wrong for a Change?' [Int'l holdings]
Replies: 49
Views: 4163

Re: Using EE and/or I Bonds Instead of Bond Funds

One of the downsides to savings bonds is that because they are not marketable securities, per se, they don't have a marketable price that can move inversely with your equities. So although you can use savings bonds as dry powder for buying more equity when stocks plummet, the marketable value of tho...
by Angst
Thu Dec 11, 2014 2:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using EE and/or I Bonds Instead of Bond Funds
Replies: 48
Views: 4253

Re: Is the Boglehead Consensus on Long Bonds still Negative?

LeeMKE wrote:My asset allocation is 60/20/20 with 20 percent in LTGovt

I'm confused. What's the other 20? I assume the 60 is equity.
by Angst
Thu Dec 11, 2014 1:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Boglehead Consensus on Long Bonds still Negative?
Replies: 29
Views: 3175

Re: Is the Boglehead Consensus on Long Bonds still Negative?

Will future editions of The Bogleheads Guide to Investing still advise against holding long bonds, or have things changed? Obviously, long-term treasury bonds have done well this year, but gold also did well for ten years, quite recently, and of course performance alone is not a reason to hold an i...
by Angst
Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Boglehead Consensus on Long Bonds still Negative?
Replies: 29
Views: 3175

Re: 'Might Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Be Wrong for a Change

Might Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Be Wrong for a Change? Is the father of index investing a market xenophobe? And is Ray Dalio’s “all-weather portfolio” all wet? (Barron's) ... It appears Barron's is complying with Betteridge's Law of Headlines . PJW I hadn't heard of this law, but I love it! So tr...
by Angst
Wed Dec 10, 2014 8:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Might Jack Bogle Be Wrong for a Change?' [Int'l holdings]
Replies: 49
Views: 4163

Re: Send text messages from PC to Cell Phone

no time to read the thread right now, but here's my list. (10 digit tel number goes in front of address) Carrier Domain AT&T @txt.att.net (SMS) @mms.att.net (MMS) Verizon @vtext.com (SMS) @vzwpix.com (MMS) T-Mobile @tmomail.net Sprint @messaging.sprintpcs.com (SMS) [personalized name]@pm.sprint....
by Angst
Wed Dec 10, 2014 11:26 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Send text messages from PC to Cell Phone
Replies: 25
Views: 3112

Re: Quick question: S&P 500 or Total Stock

Absolutely, I would, given what you've said, but not really just for the sake of simplification. It would simplify things if you were already dedicating a small portion to a separate US small-cap fund. But as it is, Total Mrkt is simply a better proxy for the total US stock market than the 500 index...
by Angst
Wed Dec 10, 2014 7:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Quick question: S&P 500 or Total Stock
Replies: 18
Views: 1731

Re: Roth versus Traditional Debate

If you don't understand the math just go with the ROTH if your current tax rate is low and go with the traditional if is is high and don't worry about the second decimal point. And even if you DO understand the math, I think the chances are fairly good that this rule-of-thumb will usually agree wit...
by Angst
Wed Dec 10, 2014 6:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth versus Traditional Debate
Replies: 48
Views: 3308

Re: Adjust Post-Crash Bond Allocation?

The subject of 100% stock (equity) has been addressed here ad infinitum. You could spend more than a couple days going through past threads and probably then come to a reasonable conclusion on your own about what you ought to do. Clearly, there's no single right answer. See what you think, here are ...
by Angst
Wed Dec 10, 2014 5:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adjust Post-Crash Bond Allocation?
Replies: 23
Views: 1592

Re: Poll: Your Portfolio Tax Diversification

I'm 60-20-20, taxable, trad, Roth, so I went for 50-25-25, not a bad approximation. However, in hindsight... with about 10 more buttons added, the poll could have been designed to simply allow us to pick deciles for each of the three categories. Just a thought. Visions of normal curves...
by Angst
Wed Dec 10, 2014 3:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Your Portfolio Tax Diversification
Replies: 45
Views: 2443

Re: Disadvantages of not investing in bonds

Just finished reading the thread and here are my 2¢: 1¢ - It's not just psychology and one's ability to hang on during a bear market 2¢ - It's not just a matter of having dry powder to take advantage of market volatility $ - It's a matter of what's unknown: E.g., we just don't know whether we might ...
by Angst
Sun Dec 07, 2014 7:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Disadvantages of not investing in bonds
Replies: 29
Views: 2524

Re: IRA 100% bonds inevitable??

If I were in your shoes (age, allocations, tax deferred choices) I wouldn't hesitate to use I Bonds for my 10% bond allocation until an alternative such as access to a 401k or high enough income to justify selling the I Bonds and buying tax exempt Muni's arrived to give me more space for tax-deferre...
by Angst
Sun Nov 30, 2014 7:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: IRA 100% bonds inevitable??
Replies: 46
Views: 3805

Re: Proper use of a barbell portfolio

To my thinking, a barbell typically refers to a fixed income (FI) portfolio heavy with both shorter and longer term instruments, averaging out to something of an intermediate term portfolio. Obviously this isn't what you have referred to, but I guess you could call it something of a "barbell&qu...
by Angst
Sat Nov 29, 2014 4:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Proper use of a barbell portfolio
Replies: 13
Views: 1502

Re: POLL: Attitude Towards Risk

This was fun, and I get a kick out of ending up in the minority. My first inclination was to do the math, but my true nature quickly took over, not the laziness that I'm prone to settling into, but more the artist kind of thing, where you just let yourself go with the flow and try to feel what seems...
by Angst
Thu Nov 27, 2014 9:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: POLL: Attitude Towards Risk
Replies: 75
Views: 3957

Re: Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund coming in early 2015

If it is late in the afternoon, and your Vanguard account is showing $452.16 in your Prime Money Market Account, and you have $20,000 in your checking account, can you successfully place an order for a) $5,000 of VTSMX, b) five TIPS bonds at auction? Will the website even accept the order? Or do yo...
by Angst
Wed Nov 26, 2014 3:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund coming in early 2015.
Replies: 39
Views: 4517

Re: Been out of market since 2008 and can't get back in

You appear to me to be a good candidate for hiring a fee-based CFP to advise you for the long-term.
by Angst
Tue Nov 25, 2014 11:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Been out of market since 2008 and can't get back in
Replies: 52
Views: 5272

Re: Vanguard launches new offering ... [Vanguard merchandise

So you put in an order for VTI but you get V OO, well kinda... My order arrived today.... I ordered the Vanguard hat, but they sent the V version instead. Oh well. Also, I'm sort of angry at them for subsitutuing the V hat I ordered with the Vanguard one since apparently the V hat is now out of stoc...
by Angst
Sat Nov 22, 2014 6:35 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vanguard launches new offering ... [Vanguard merchandise]
Replies: 115
Views: 12951

Re: How Not to Retire

I'm not wealthy person, my earnings are barely average, and neither do I think I lack compassion, but this essay somehow annoys me more than anything. I'm well aware of the hard luck people can run into, both with the recent economic problems and generally speaking as well; events can simply conspir...
by Angst
Mon Nov 17, 2014 7:32 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Not to Retire
Replies: 67
Views: 8013

Re: Bogleheads not found easily in Google

Try logging out of anything Google, delete all cookies, then do the search.
by Angst
Thu Nov 13, 2014 6:38 pm
 
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Bogleheads not found easily in Google
Replies: 30
Views: 3651

Re: International Stock Diversification — A New Look

Well, yes and no. If you want your portfolio to be cap weighted, yes. However, what this data is showing is that if you want to be revenue weighted, then no - you would weight US stocks more than VT does. .... <snip> ..... Theoretically... However in practice, I think there is likely only a small d...
by Angst
Wed Nov 12, 2014 2:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Stock Diversification — A New Look
Replies: 57
Views: 7675

Re: Good books about Warren Buffett?

This isn't exactly what you've asked for, but I think it might be a choice worth considering. Katherine Graham, who took over the Washington Post after the death of her husband in 1963, wrote an excellent memoir titled "Personal History" in which Warren Buffett figured prominently. Graham ...
by Angst
Tue Nov 11, 2014 5:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good books about Warren Buffett?
Replies: 18
Views: 1054

Re: International Stock Diversification — A New Look

Still, one unanswered question persists: What are the true numbers for an all-international portfolio? Are these the right percentages? Did the Economist or Blackrock include them? I've looked, Angst , but I've not been able to find those revenue numbers in published reports. Neither of the origina...
by Angst
Mon Nov 10, 2014 7:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Stock Diversification — A New Look
Replies: 57
Views: 7675

Re: International Stock Diversification — A New Look

I could be wrong, but I think the issue is that the cap weighting is not revenue weighting. Given that you have US stocks typically priced higher for the equivalent earnings compared to international, you could have Company A (US): Market cap 100, Revenue: $6 US, $4 International Company B (Intnl):...
by Angst
Mon Nov 10, 2014 6:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Stock Diversification — A New Look
Replies: 57
Views: 7675

Re: iBonds at zero % fixed

This is not political but I believe a reason to buy or not buy ibonds at the current level.Here is my reality and my facts living in the Bay Area.I bought my house 5 years ago for 465K and you can buy it today for 675k.My health insurance has almost doubled from about 550 to 950.5 years ago you cou...
by Angst
Wed Nov 05, 2014 7:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: iBonds at zero % fixed
Replies: 84
Views: 9340

Re: What do you set your thermostat to (in F)?

It's funny how much more popular 68 and 70 are than 69. I recently switched from 68 to 70 and for some reason never thought to try out the odd number in between. No kidding! Actually, add 72 to the list of favorites and 71 and 67 to the unpopulars and you see a fairly dramatic gap-tooth phenomena i...
by Angst
Wed Nov 05, 2014 11:12 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What do you set your thermostat to (in F)?
Replies: 81
Views: 4618

Re: Automatic monthly investing

trueblueky wrote:If you're investing in a taxable account, you'll have either 12 or 52 lots per year to track, more if you reinvest the dividends. Your broker tracks this for you, but still...

This.
by Angst
Mon Nov 03, 2014 8:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Automatic monthly investing
Replies: 9
Views: 1072

Re: Electrical Panel Upgrade

I did commercial and industrial electrical work years ago, and some residential on the side. I agree with killjoy2012, both on the 200A panel and the Square D QO panel/breakers; good quality, and parts available everywhere. I'd also take this as an opportunity to consider if the current panel locati...
by Angst
Mon Nov 03, 2014 4:16 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Electrical Panel Upgrade
Replies: 14
Views: 1117

Re: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund

I was in that fund and lost 3.5% in ten day from September 26 to October 6. I didn't read the prospectus carefully but soon found the fund is managed by a firm in the UK. The fund manager was recently fired not only from managing the fund but from the firm. The fund has constantly under performed t...
by Angst
Mon Nov 03, 2014 10:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund
Replies: 47
Views: 3597

Re: November 1 2014 I Bond Inflation Component

Browser wrote:
ArthurO wrote:I am glad I purchased my 10K on October 28th, at least I get that 0.1% fixed lol....

Me too. I was going to wait but that 0.1 is pretty juicy isn't it?

But only half as juicy as 0.2!
In a low rate environment, I'm happy to hold my .2's and a .1
by Angst
Mon Nov 03, 2014 10:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: November 1 2014 I Bond Inflation Component
Replies: 28
Views: 4305

Re: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund

So he did not step down for performance issues, perhaps simply preparing for personal retirement? He got fired. He invested in way too many companies that went belly up. Graham French’s worrying messages for investors. The manager of the M&G Global Basics fund has a tough job convincing investo...
by Angst
Mon Nov 03, 2014 10:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund
Replies: 47
Views: 3597

Re: Vanguard TIPS Fund Maturity Graph

Even though its holdings differ more abruptly versus the 1+ index, TIPZ comes closer to the index on average than does SCHP. While it's odd, I don't think the SEC would necessarily object with the approach taken by TIPZ to hold only some of the outstanding TIPS. It's common practice among some inde...
by Angst
Mon Nov 03, 2014 12:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard TIPS Fund Maturity Graph
Replies: 36
Views: 7927

Re: Donating Your Body to Medical School, etc.

"Don't go to weep upon my grave, and think that there I be; they haven't left an atom there of my anatomie." Ah, wonderful! Thank you NaOH. Let's see if I can make Google Books give up the entirety of "Mary's Ghost"... http://books.google.com/books?id=FSk_AAAAYAAJ&pg=PA446&a...
by Angst
Sun Nov 02, 2014 11:52 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Donating Your Body to Medical School, etc.
Replies: 44
Views: 4782

Re: Donating Your Body to Medical School, etc.

I know that in Europe, at least, in previous centuries, there was a brisk trade for grave robbers in supplying bodies for medical education/research. It has been many decades since my late father related some of the family history, but I recall his relating that one of our Irish ancestors spent som...
by Angst
Sun Nov 02, 2014 10:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Donating Your Body to Medical School, etc.
Replies: 44
Views: 4782

Re: How does retirement company make money?

No time to read entire thread, but I see that no one's referenced the Wiki page on 401k's yet. I recommend reading it! Even more to the point, at that page there's a sub-link to the Wiki page on "How to campaign for a better 401(k) plan" . Good reading! http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/401k ...
by Angst
Sun Nov 02, 2014 8:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does retirement company make money?
Replies: 31
Views: 3307

Re: Donating Your Body to Medical School, etc.

Many years ago I was in a room where 1st year med students at a local med school were dissecting their cadavers. Everyone had given their cadaver a name, which at the time I thought was funny, but it's not really strange when you think about it and all the time students spend on this. I still have a...
by Angst
Sun Nov 02, 2014 7:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Donating Your Body to Medical School, etc.
Replies: 44
Views: 4782
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