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Re: Wise move to move some $ to cash before bear market?

I just read an article that described how to prepare for a bear market and listed the history of the previous bear markets over time. Since we are at an all time high , a bear market is coming , nobody knows when. The author suggested taking 20%- 30 % and putting it in cash to hold and buy in the b...
by Angst
Sat Mar 28, 2015 4:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wise move to move some $ to cash before bear market?
Replies: 74
Views: 6645

Re: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015

For anyone who's inclined to indulge in the notion that actionable insight can be gained from looking at long-term trends, it might be comforting to note that the blips of 2008 and QE on this chart could easily be excised without causing any material impact on the big picture. Nonetheless, although ...
by Angst
Sat Mar 28, 2015 3:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015
Replies: 103
Views: 8738

Re: Vanguard index fund security lending in 2014

So Barry, forgive me for being a little slow, but I gather you are agreeing with JoMoney and Tanelorn above? So if lending income were high enough, the fund would still have an ER while it's overall returns could exceed its benchmark by more than the ER. Is this correct? Or are you contradicting JoM...
by Angst
Tue Mar 24, 2015 3:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard index fund security lending in 2014
Replies: 23
Views: 1701

Re: Vanguard index fund security lending in 2014

"Expense ratio" is calculated using specific items, it doesn't include additional income earned, it doesn't even include all the expenses incurred by the fund (-it doesn't include 12b-1 fees, or brokerage trading costs for the fund to buy and sell shares among other things). Some funds ha...
by Angst
Tue Mar 24, 2015 3:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard index fund security lending in 2014
Replies: 23
Views: 1701

Re: Vanguard index fund security lending in 2014

Thanks Barry for posting this, it's interesting. I guess it's not surprising that not simply small cap, but small cap growth companies are more in demand for securities lending, but maybe someone can clarify another thing for me: As already pointed out, the " Ratio of security lending income/fu...
by Angst
Tue Mar 24, 2015 2:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard index fund security lending in 2014
Replies: 23
Views: 1701

Re: How Do You Watch Television?

Nothing quite covered my situation:
Once they're released, I check out TV series DVDs from the library and binge-watch. That's it. Occasionally some ota TV.
by Angst
Mon Mar 23, 2015 10:19 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How Do You Watch Television?
Replies: 81
Views: 5462

Re: Best Emergency Fund Vehicle For Long Term Low Inflation

To my thinking, including "emergency" with "long term" in the same defining statement is something of a non-sequitur. If LT rates continue to be low, investing in "20 year" series EE savings bonds could prove to be good, safe bets with certain advantages, such as tax de...
by Angst
Sun Mar 22, 2015 10:13 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best Emergency Fund Vehicle For Long Term Low Inflation
Replies: 6
Views: 1098

Re: The Most Likely Portfolio Peril — Inflation or Deflation

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/Speeches/2002/20021121/default.htm Ben Bernanke thinks deflation will never become a serious problem under fiat currency system. This belief is called 'the bernanke doctrine'. I found this paper to be really interesting, and I can't help quoting Bernanke's ex...
by Angst
Sun Mar 22, 2015 8:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Most Likely Portfolio Peril — Inflation or Deflation?
Replies: 40
Views: 3782

Re: VGPMX [Vanguard Precious Metals And Mining Fund]

You have to decide if you believe in the managers behind VGPMX, at least one of whom is very new. I suggest looking at the actual holdings of VGPMX over the last five years, and ask yourself if you are comfortable with some of the choices made. If I'm not mistaken, VGPMX used to have significant ho...
by Angst
Sun Mar 22, 2015 8:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VGPMX [Vanguard Precious Metals And Mining Fund]
Replies: 24
Views: 2351

Re: Where is Larry Swedroe

I conjured up some information online about Andrew Berkin, Ph.D... HOUSTON, Sept. 16, 2013 /PRNewswire-iReach/ -- Bridgeway Capital Management, Inc., investment adviser to the Bridgeway Funds, announced today that quantitative investment research leader Andrew L. Berkin, Ph.D. has joined the firm's ...
by Angst
Sat Mar 21, 2015 4:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where is Larry Swedroe
Replies: 18
Views: 4135

Re: Looking for dirt cheap commissions on DFA funds

In my employers 401(k) at Schwab I can buy DFA funds in my Personal Choice Retirement Account for $15 a trade. You certainly would not want to set up monthly $100 purchases for this trading cost, but for a one time purchase of $10,000 or $20,000, the cost of the trade is lost in the noise. Ralph $1...
by Angst
Wed Mar 18, 2015 5:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking for dirt cheap commissions on DFA funds
Replies: 24
Views: 2673

Re: Dollar falls after Fed policy statement released

More proof that nobody knows nothin'? All the news I had heard predicted a drop in the US markets if 'patient' was removed from the Fed statement; instead, the opposite occurred. On top of that, even bond funds jumped on the news. While the word "patient" itself was removed, the net chang...
by Angst
Wed Mar 18, 2015 4:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dollar falls after Fed policy statement released
Replies: 10
Views: 1177

Re: PXSV has changed indexes

JKL looks pretty good on all fronts except for number of holdings, ca. 250. Our inherited wisdom from Larry was that we need 500 or more holdings down in SCV. But I dunno, do we really? Was Larry just talking his book? Actually, Larry can be fairly forgiving when it comes to the number of companies...
by Angst
Wed Mar 18, 2015 3:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PXSV has changed indexes
Replies: 88
Views: 6138

Re: Dollar falls after Fed policy statement released

Here's what changed in the new Fed statement . Kevin Kevin, thank you for posting this! Really interesting. Btw, an easier read can be had by opening or downloading http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2015/03/18/Fed%20statements%20compare%20March%2015.pdf which will gi...
by Angst
Wed Mar 18, 2015 3:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dollar falls after Fed policy statement released
Replies: 10
Views: 1177

Re: The Larry portfolio vs. Merriman 4-fund portfolio

Portfolio CAGR SD Sharpe End Neg Yrs Avg Loss Max DD Neg TSM Yrs Rtrn 60/40 TSM 9.67% 11.18% 0.47 $530,407 8 -6.95% -16.9% (2008) ---- 60/40 Merriman 10.70% 11.32% 0.55 $791,187 7 -7.05% -15.84%(2008) 3.44% 30/70 Larry 9.67% 7.82% 0.63 $528,402 6 -2.04% - 4.82%(1972) 10.48% Thanks Browser, I've alw...
by Angst
Wed Mar 18, 2015 11:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Larry portfolio vs. Merriman 4-fund portfolio
Replies: 15
Views: 2361

Re: How much international is too much?

[snip]... Once your international allocation reaches the cap-weights in the global stock index (about 50% U.S./50% International), then your economic and revenue exposure to various regions of the world is approximately the same as their GDP weights (about one-third U.S., one-third other developed ...
by Angst
Wed Mar 18, 2015 11:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international is too much?
Replies: 113
Views: 9130

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

My point that 97% claim SS before age 67 was with regard to the claim sometimes made that few Americans can wait to claim. Sadly, that claim is probably true for a majority of Americans, but certainly there is a sizeable minority for which it is not true. There seem to be several reasons why only 3...
by Angst
Tue Mar 17, 2015 7:10 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 220
Views: 19894

Re: Why not use inflation-adjusted SPIA?

Can someone point me to the evidence that insurance companies use TIPS for SPIAs to any large extent? Not sure if this helps (it doesn't specifically refer to SPIA's) but this NY Fed 2010 document states (on pg. 15) that "Insurance companies hold 2.48 percent of the TIPS and 2.96 percent of Tr...
by Angst
Thu Mar 12, 2015 7:59 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why not use inflation-adjusted SPIA?
Replies: 117
Views: 4804

Re: Schwab Intelligent Portfolios

Don46 wrote:I'm very interested in this new program, which is now launched I see... [snip...]

Don, you should check out this current thread which has been discussing Schwab's newly released program:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=160555
by Angst
Tue Mar 10, 2015 1:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab Intelligent Portfolios [now live]
Replies: 274
Views: 20483

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

When it comes to predicting the future, the unknown always overwhelms the known. I have no trouble with Dr. Bernstein coming to conclusions based on facts/history, it's just that the big picture will always remain vague and cloudy, like that crystal ball, and it's that big picture which will determi...
by Angst
Mon Mar 09, 2015 5:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22905

Re: Today's WSJ (March 9th, 2015)

Does this one work for anyone?
Deleting cookies first sometimes helps too. Just fishin' here though.
by Angst
Mon Mar 09, 2015 5:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ - Why Vanguard is Secretive on Stock ETF's
Replies: 13
Views: 1482

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

In what years did GDP rise more than 10%? Amazed at that. 1941 I could believe (war buildup). But others. Real GDP? The Source takes you to the website where the graph was included in an article. It appears however that the data used to create the graph was pulled from this website . Nice site! Tha...
by Angst
Mon Mar 09, 2015 12:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 22905

Re: Schwab Intelligent Portfolios is live

Wow! Regarding the graphic posted above , Schwab is showing a negative correlation between "Treasuries" and all of their equity categories listed. Around here, just hinting that treasuries might occasionally show negative correlations with stocks can get you raked over the coals. Do you t...
by Angst
Mon Mar 09, 2015 11:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab Intelligent Portfolios [now live]
Replies: 274
Views: 20483

Re: Vanguard et al disintermediated?

The article is interesting to read, but I'm not holding my breath. It's appealing and sounds reasonable, but long ago so was the notion of everyone flying their own personal vehicle to work everyday. For now, I'm more inclined to look forward to negative expense ratios and certain index funds routin...
by Angst
Mon Mar 09, 2015 11:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard et al disintermediated?
Replies: 39
Views: 2699

Re: Schwab Intelligent Portfolios is live

Wow! Regarding the graphic posted above , Schwab is showing a negative correlation between "Treasuries" and all of their equity categories listed. Around here, just hinting that treasuries might occasionally show negative correlations with stocks can get you raked over the coals. Do you th...
by Angst
Mon Mar 09, 2015 10:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab Intelligent Portfolios [now live]
Replies: 274
Views: 20483

Re: Convince me to buy international funds

[Snip]... I get it...past performance blah blah blah. But when making decisions on investments, can someone please show me that I'm wrong? I'm really trying to find ways to show me that international investing is worth it, but I feel like the performance over the past 20 years is just too lackluste...
by Angst
Sun Mar 08, 2015 9:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Convince me to buy international funds
Replies: 34
Views: 2519

Re: How do you watch TV differently after "cutting the cable

I've never had cable at home. Always gotten a kick out of gorging on it while in hotels but never spent a dime on it. I watch PBS over the air but my main source for content is the local library. I get DVD's of cable TV shows as well as movies and that works out fine. I typically am one season behin...
by Angst
Sun Mar 08, 2015 8:29 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How do you watch TV differently after "cutting the cable"?
Replies: 23
Views: 2206

Re: Baby Grand Piano

Find a piano tuner/tech who has a good reputation to evaluate any used piano you're considering buying. Used baby grands can be a great value, as long as the keyboard mechanism functions well and the pin block is good. If not, it can be a money pit. Btw, miscellaneous cracks in an old sound board ar...
by Angst
Sun Mar 08, 2015 8:21 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Baby Grand Piano
Replies: 33
Views: 2172

Re: I hate the new Vanguard Web navigation!!!

I've found a workaround: I've made separate bookmarks for Vanguard's home page, Vanguard's list of funds, my Watch List, and my account balances. This works, but it really shouldn't be necessary. I did the same thing - once I found the correct page. That took a while. My shortcut is (and has been) ...
by Angst
Sun Mar 08, 2015 5:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I hate the new Vanguard Web navigation!!!
Replies: 47
Views: 4539

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Just finished Deep, Down, Dark by Hector Tobar, a retelling of the 2010 story of 33 Chilean (1 Bolivian, actually) miners who were trapped for more than 2 months, 2,000 feet down inside a mountain. Highly recommend; fascinating and exciting story and examination of human nature. It should make a gre...
by Angst
Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:05 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 579
Views: 79906

Re: Wait till June Fed meeting before adding to VBTLX?

I don't really know if the Fed's efforts to raise rates will actually end up affecting intermediate or LT rates much at all. How confident are you that they will? What if it's all just a big yawn and IT and LT rates don't move?
by Angst
Sat Mar 07, 2015 6:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wait till June Fed meeting before adding to VBTLX?
Replies: 17
Views: 1144

Re: interest rate increase looming. what you gonna do ?

with interest rate expected to increase this year, what should be the strategy to handle that while our money is sitting in etfs/stocks ? It's the " that " which really throws me. What is there "to handle"? I don't directly interact with the Fed - they're not raising my rates, n...
by Angst
Sat Mar 07, 2015 5:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: interest rate increase looming. what you gonna do ?
Replies: 65
Views: 6232

Re: Bonds, REITs, Utilities, Commodities and Stocks down - W

It was indeed a Perfectly Red Day. I noticed this too. Rarely do I find absolutely everything in my portfolio going down. Then again, those savings bonds and CD's didn't turn red. :wink: SPXU did well. Sometimes you just need to get contrarian. See my other posts. To my mind, being "contrarian...
by Angst
Sat Mar 07, 2015 4:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds, REITs, Utilities, Commodities and Stocks down - Wow
Replies: 66
Views: 4291

Re: Bonds, REITs, Utilities, Commodities and Stocks down - W

ogd wrote:It was indeed a Perfectly Red Day.

I noticed this too. Rarely do I find absolutely everything in my portfolio going down. Then again, those savings bonds and CD's didn't turn red. :wink:
by Angst
Sat Mar 07, 2015 12:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds, REITs, Utilities, Commodities and Stocks down - Wow
Replies: 66
Views: 4291

Re: Tax Loss Harvesting - GWX to VSS

I have now held the shares for about 80 days. I believe that should take care of the 60 day limit to make dividends ( ? capital gains) "qualified" and also the vanguard limit for internet trading. I'm not qualified to answer your tax questions, but as far as ETF's go, there is no explicit...
by Angst
Sat Mar 07, 2015 12:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Loss Harvesting - GWX to VSS
Replies: 8
Views: 693

Re: When will / did you claim Social Security benefits?

Nice job on structuring your poll. Too often, polls don't seem well thought out before being implemented.
by Angst
Sat Mar 07, 2015 10:59 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When will / did you claim Social Security benefits?
Replies: 133
Views: 9710

Re: Bonds, REITs, Utilities, Commodities and Stocks down - W

Looks like just a perception of a rate increase did this to market yesterday... [Snip] So looks like impending rate hikes are causing all this... [Snip] Loose lips can sink ships and raise rates too. Perhaps what markets are all about is resolving the differences between perception and reality. 10 ...
by Angst
Sat Mar 07, 2015 10:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds, REITs, Utilities, Commodities and Stocks down - Wow
Replies: 66
Views: 4291

Re: Thought you might enjoy taking this quiz

Larry Swedroe... I remember you - You used to post here regularly! :) I hope this means you're back from your travels or sabbatical or whatever. Thanks for the quotes. The truth about indexing has been slipping out for a while now. I enjoyed the last one in particular. I suppose any realistic (activ...
by Angst
Fri Mar 06, 2015 8:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thought you might enjoy taking this quiz
Replies: 3
Views: 1256

Re: Reasons not to use Total Bond Market?

A lot of great comments on this thread. Here's my specific situation, which started this lively discussion... I'd appreciate your thoughts. 40 years old 70/30 equities/fi Here's my current FI holdings - all in tax deferrred except for the individual munis FUND/Ticker/ER/% of FI Vanguard Total Bond ...
by Angst
Fri Mar 06, 2015 12:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reasons not to use Total Bond Market?
Replies: 83
Views: 7097

Re: Vanguard Managed Payout to add new fund

So, Vanguard says High costs, disparate strategies, and middling performance have characterized the liquid alternatives industry. We caution “buyer beware” when contemplating the allure of the exotic. As the astronomer Carl Sagan said, “Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” And then...
by Angst
Sun Mar 01, 2015 10:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Managed Payout to add new fund
Replies: 30
Views: 2852

Re: Dividends and Market Slides

Dividends, to me, are something of a distraction for people. Whether a company pays out a dividend, or it doesn't and you just sell a small portion of your holdings, it's the same thing. Well, there are different tax implications...
by Angst
Sat Feb 28, 2015 8:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends and Market Slides
Replies: 55
Views: 3391

Re: How long will I l live? (mortality predictor)

There is something screwy about the data entry fields. It ends up saying I'm one year older than I am, and it converts "30 November" from the first two fields into "02 11". What's with that? "11" means November? But what's with the 02? If they somehow became February 11...
by Angst
Sat Feb 28, 2015 8:37 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How long will I l live? (mortality predictor)
Replies: 17
Views: 2067

Re: Past, present, and future of Berkshire - Annual letter

Whew... a long read but wonderfully written. I've always found Buffett's comments a delight to read. Charlie Munger... well, he's not quite the wordsmith that Buffett is, but he was revealing. I particularly found what Buffett had to say about Berkshire by way of contrast with the conglomerates of t...
by Angst
Sat Feb 28, 2015 6:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Past, present, and future of Berkshire - Annual letter
Replies: 29
Views: 2601

Re: International is disappointing

Ahem! I beg your pardon? It's one thing to clearly state specific rebalancing criteria, broad as they might be defined, but there's nothing clear about "(unless TISM starts to outperform)". :) That means that my international allocation may increase if TISM outperforms, naturally. Not tha...
by Angst
Sat Feb 28, 2015 3:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International is disappointing
Replies: 84
Views: 7164

Re: International is disappointing

I am staying (my own) course of 100% stocks, 85% domestic and growing, 15% international and diminishing (unless TISM starts to outperform) . This "course" clearly includes market timing. Bon voyage. Possibly market timing but not necessarily. The OP could be planning to buy and hold, whi...
by Angst
Sat Feb 28, 2015 2:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International is disappointing
Replies: 84
Views: 7164

Re: International is disappointing

airahcaz wrote:I am staying (my own) course of 100% stocks, 85% domestic and growing, 15% international and diminishing (unless TISM starts to outperform).

This "course" clearly includes market timing. Bon voyage.
by Angst
Sat Feb 28, 2015 1:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International is disappointing
Replies: 84
Views: 7164

Re: Retirement planning - Too soon for TIPS?

Re the 30 year TIPs, I think the main point is that none of us know how long we are going to live. I think it is prudent to plan to live to 95 or so. It's really an insurance approach idea. You want insurance against the risk of outliving your money, or having your money eaten away by massive infla...
by Angst
Sat Feb 28, 2015 10:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement planning - Too soon for TIPS?
Replies: 25
Views: 2370

Re: slice and dice question (fixed income)

Thinking about moving these into BND... Hi zadie. Around here, putting all of one's fixed income (FI) into BND (Vanguard Total Bond Mrkt) is a common default suggestion and I think it's a good one. I find it fairly easy to imagine you could be better off doing that, particularly given your comment:...
by Angst
Sat Feb 28, 2015 9:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: slice and dice question (fixed income)
Replies: 10
Views: 831

Re: TIPS Yield Crash November 2008 - Why?

Thank you haginile, this is interesting. Can you expand upon what you say in C) above? E.g., with respect to your comment "as we'd expect during a recession..." What do you mean here, with respect to TIPS, vs Nominals? And do you have an opinion re: Lehman Bros. contributing to this? What...
by Angst
Fri Feb 27, 2015 12:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Yield Crash November 2008 - Why?
Replies: 18
Views: 1488

Re: TIPS Yield Crash November 2008 - Why?

C) In the next chart, I'm plotting a decomposition of 10-year TIPS yield, computed using a Fed model. The red line is the actual TIPS yield, with a very noticeable spike in '08. As we can see, the spike was almost completely driven by a sharp rise in liquidity premium (yellow), while actual real yi...
by Angst
Thu Feb 26, 2015 9:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Yield Crash November 2008 - Why?
Replies: 18
Views: 1488
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