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Re: Visiting Nashville during the summer

If you like the college vibe, check out the area at the southern edge (tip) of Vanderbilt on Hillsboro Rd. (ave?). There are lots of restaurants and shops there. Fido Coffeehouse is a fixture; a little ways off (on Portland, I think) is Bongo Java. There's also a thriving college/indie music scene t...
by Angst
Wed Apr 22, 2015 10:34 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Visiting Nashville during the summer
Replies: 28
Views: 1202

Re: new i-bond rate?

Stated differently, if I buy a TIPS bond today and redeem it 5 years later, could I get back less than what I paid for it if inflation rates are negative for all or most of those 5 years? By contrast, if I buy an I bond today and redeem it 5 years later, will I get back at least what I paid for it,...
by Angst
Mon Apr 20, 2015 3:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: new i-bond rate?
Replies: 18
Views: 2829

Re: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."

From my understanding, for a Series I saving bond purchased with a fixed component of zero percent to earn more than the Series EE savings bond, the inflation rate over time has to be higher than the fixed interest rate on the Series EE, currently .10 percent. Do you think inflation will average mo...
by Angst
Mon Apr 20, 2015 9:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."
Replies: 146
Views: 14702

Re: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."

^^^ Given the graph above, I would not be surprised if history repeats itself in terms of yield not appreciating for an extended period of time. We are now "let's call it a good 7 years into this low yield environment", only 11 more years to go. Those EE bonds are looking sweeter by the d...
by Angst
Mon Apr 20, 2015 8:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: "If you've won the game, stop playing."
Replies: 146
Views: 14702

Re: MIT Billion Prices: Down? Broken? Discontinued?

Nisi, not sure if this helps you, but charts still appear to be available at the State Street website where they've been a "partner" with the BPP for several years now; I don't see any postings there to suggest anything's changed with the BPP, although clearly that website is not working r...
by Angst
Sun Apr 19, 2015 8:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MIT Billion Prices: Down? Broken? Discontinued?
Replies: 2
Views: 616

Re: how to deal with it [regret over past investing choices]

I am now versed in Bogle way of investing but back in 2008 I wasnt. [snip]... I plan on holding for the long term and adding more cash as soon as a decent correction hits. ( I have $250,000 cash waiting ) You appear have a few verses left to learn. Will you let us know once that next correction has...
by Angst
Sun Apr 19, 2015 4:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: how to deal with it [regret over past investing choices]
Replies: 74
Views: 5757

Re: 19 year old with Roth IRA

If it were my child I'd consider suggesting they invest: 95% Total Stock Mrkt 05% Total Bond Mrkt If you couldn't invest such a small amount in Total Bond at the outset, I'd just go 100% Total Stock. I'd look at it as an opportunity to challenge the new investor's ability to stick with their equity ...
by Angst
Tue Apr 14, 2015 8:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 19 year old with Roth IRA
Replies: 12
Views: 1336

Re: How should I name my home Wi-Fi network?

Use "George", unless you happen to have a neighbor named George. If that's the case, use "Walter" instead. If by some remote chance you also have a neighbor named Walter, then move on to "Frank". If Frank doesn't work either, you must be living in one of those problemat...
by Angst
Tue Apr 14, 2015 3:43 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How should I name my home Wi-Fi network?
Replies: 55
Views: 4513

Re: To TIP or not to TIP?

VIPSX fell more than VBMFX for two reasons: 1) it has a longer duration and 2) TIPS rates rose more. The 2nd point seems logical if the market was expecting the Federal Reserve to tighten the money supply. This would decrease inflationary expectations and reduce the break-even increment of nominal ...
by Angst
Tue Mar 31, 2015 5:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: To TIP or not to TIP (funds)?
Replies: 23
Views: 3347

Re: Riddle Me This

At age 45, the importance of both living below your means and contributing the maximum amount you can to your savings overwhelms the importance of what your bond % specifically is. Personally, I'd be leaning towards 10-25% bonds for someone 45 and gainfully employed. There are other factors though t...
by Angst
Mon Mar 30, 2015 9:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Riddle Me This [Vanguard's bond target so far from Bogle's]
Replies: 10
Views: 1832

Re: To TIP or not to TIP?

I'm not sure what to make of this, but in replying to one of Nisi's posts in another thread , Vanguard's Intermediate TIPS fund was added to the following graphic showing how TIPS have fared worse than other bond funds since May 2013 when the "Taper Tantrum" dropped rates for a while. TIPS...
by Angst
Mon Mar 30, 2015 8:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: To TIP or not to TIP (funds)?
Replies: 23
Views: 3347

Re: Wise move to move some $ to cash before bear market?

I believe I'm following a mechanical rule, based on market conditions, when I rebalance periodically.
by Angst
Mon Mar 30, 2015 7:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wise move to move some $ to cash before bear market?
Replies: 116
Views: 11844

Re: M*: No Vanguard Funds Among Its Top Seven Inter. Bond Fu

And if you continue the graph out to today, TIPS have yet to recover from the taper tantrum. They continue to just hover around 9.5k on the graph while the others have crept up to and beyond 10.5k It appears TIPS don't weather rate rises very well. Ouch. Livesoft - GNMA did not do better though than...
by Angst
Mon Mar 30, 2015 4:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: M*: No Vanguard Funds Among Its Top Seven Inter. Bond Funds
Replies: 17
Views: 2563

Re: M*: No Vanguard Funds Among Its Top Seven Inter. Bond Fu

Well Livesoft, you've made me curious so here it is. Yellow is Vanguard Intermediate TIPS, Red is their GNMA. Kinda bumpy ride there for TIPS.

Image
by Angst
Mon Mar 30, 2015 4:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: M*: No Vanguard Funds Among Its Top Seven Inter. Bond Funds
Replies: 17
Views: 2563

Re: Wise move to move some $ to cash before bear market?

I just read an article that described how to prepare for a bear market and listed the history of the previous bear markets over time. Since we are at an all time high , a bear market is coming , nobody knows when. The author suggested taking 20%- 30 % and putting it in cash to hold and buy in the b...
by Angst
Sat Mar 28, 2015 4:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wise move to move some $ to cash before bear market?
Replies: 116
Views: 11844

Re: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015

For anyone who's inclined to indulge in the notion that actionable insight can be gained from looking at long-term trends, it might be comforting to note that the blips of 2008 and QE on this chart could easily be excised without causing any material impact on the big picture. Nonetheless, although ...
by Angst
Sat Mar 28, 2015 3:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015
Replies: 137
Views: 13892

Re: Vanguard index fund security lending in 2014

So Barry, forgive me for being a little slow, but I gather you are agreeing with JoMoney and Tanelorn above? So if lending income were high enough, the fund would still have an ER while it's overall returns could exceed its benchmark by more than the ER. Is this correct? Or are you contradicting JoM...
by Angst
Tue Mar 24, 2015 3:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard index fund security lending in 2014
Replies: 23
Views: 1746

Re: Vanguard index fund security lending in 2014

"Expense ratio" is calculated using specific items, it doesn't include additional income earned, it doesn't even include all the expenses incurred by the fund (-it doesn't include 12b-1 fees, or brokerage trading costs for the fund to buy and sell shares among other things). Some funds ha...
by Angst
Tue Mar 24, 2015 3:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard index fund security lending in 2014
Replies: 23
Views: 1746

Re: Vanguard index fund security lending in 2014

Thanks Barry for posting this, it's interesting. I guess it's not surprising that not simply small cap, but small cap growth companies are more in demand for securities lending, but maybe someone can clarify another thing for me: As already pointed out, the " Ratio of security lending income/fu...
by Angst
Tue Mar 24, 2015 2:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard index fund security lending in 2014
Replies: 23
Views: 1746

Re: How Do You Watch Television?

Nothing quite covered my situation:
Once they're released, I check out TV series DVDs from the library and binge-watch. That's it. Occasionally some ota TV.
by Angst
Mon Mar 23, 2015 10:19 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How Do You Watch Television?
Replies: 81
Views: 5827

Re: Best Emergency Fund Vehicle For Long Term Low Inflation

To my thinking, including "emergency" with "long term" in the same defining statement is something of a non-sequitur. If LT rates continue to be low, investing in "20 year" series EE savings bonds could prove to be good, safe bets with certain advantages, such as tax de...
by Angst
Sun Mar 22, 2015 10:13 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best Emergency Fund Vehicle For Long Term Low Inflation
Replies: 6
Views: 1126

Re: The Most Likely Portfolio Peril — Inflation or Deflation

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/Speeches/2002/20021121/default.htm Ben Bernanke thinks deflation will never become a serious problem under fiat currency system. This belief is called 'the bernanke doctrine'. I found this paper to be really interesting, and I can't help quoting Bernanke's ex...
by Angst
Sun Mar 22, 2015 8:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Most Likely Portfolio Peril — Inflation or Deflation?
Replies: 40
Views: 3912

Re: VGPMX [Vanguard Precious Metals And Mining Fund]

You have to decide if you believe in the managers behind VGPMX, at least one of whom is very new. I suggest looking at the actual holdings of VGPMX over the last five years, and ask yourself if you are comfortable with some of the choices made. If I'm not mistaken, VGPMX used to have significant ho...
by Angst
Sun Mar 22, 2015 8:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VGPMX [Vanguard Precious Metals And Mining Fund]
Replies: 24
Views: 2474

Re: Where is Larry Swedroe

I conjured up some information online about Andrew Berkin, Ph.D... HOUSTON, Sept. 16, 2013 /PRNewswire-iReach/ -- Bridgeway Capital Management, Inc., investment adviser to the Bridgeway Funds, announced today that quantitative investment research leader Andrew L. Berkin, Ph.D. has joined the firm's ...
by Angst
Sat Mar 21, 2015 4:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where is Larry Swedroe
Replies: 18
Views: 4282

Re: Looking for dirt cheap commissions on DFA funds

In my employers 401(k) at Schwab I can buy DFA funds in my Personal Choice Retirement Account for $15 a trade. You certainly would not want to set up monthly $100 purchases for this trading cost, but for a one time purchase of $10,000 or $20,000, the cost of the trade is lost in the noise. Ralph $1...
by Angst
Wed Mar 18, 2015 5:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking for dirt cheap commissions on DFA funds
Replies: 24
Views: 2789

Re: Dollar falls after Fed policy statement released

More proof that nobody knows nothin'? All the news I had heard predicted a drop in the US markets if 'patient' was removed from the Fed statement; instead, the opposite occurred. On top of that, even bond funds jumped on the news. While the word "patient" itself was removed, the net chang...
by Angst
Wed Mar 18, 2015 4:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dollar falls after Fed policy statement released
Replies: 10
Views: 1191

Re: PXSV has changed indexes

JKL looks pretty good on all fronts except for number of holdings, ca. 250. Our inherited wisdom from Larry was that we need 500 or more holdings down in SCV. But I dunno, do we really? Was Larry just talking his book? Actually, Larry can be fairly forgiving when it comes to the number of companies...
by Angst
Wed Mar 18, 2015 3:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PXSV has changed indexes
Replies: 105
Views: 8384

Re: Dollar falls after Fed policy statement released

Here's what changed in the new Fed statement . Kevin Kevin, thank you for posting this! Really interesting. Btw, an easier read can be had by opening or downloading http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2015/03/18/Fed%20statements%20compare%20March%2015.pdf which will gi...
by Angst
Wed Mar 18, 2015 3:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dollar falls after Fed policy statement released
Replies: 10
Views: 1191

Re: The Larry portfolio vs. Merriman 4-fund portfolio

Portfolio CAGR SD Sharpe End Neg Yrs Avg Loss Max DD Neg TSM Yrs Rtrn 60/40 TSM 9.67% 11.18% 0.47 $530,407 8 -6.95% -16.9% (2008) ---- 60/40 Merriman 10.70% 11.32% 0.55 $791,187 7 -7.05% -15.84%(2008) 3.44% 30/70 Larry 9.67% 7.82% 0.63 $528,402 6 -2.04% - 4.82%(1972) 10.48% Thanks Browser, I've alw...
by Angst
Wed Mar 18, 2015 11:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Larry portfolio vs. Merriman 4-fund portfolio
Replies: 15
Views: 2571

Re: How much international is too much?

[snip]... Once your international allocation reaches the cap-weights in the global stock index (about 50% U.S./50% International), then your economic and revenue exposure to various regions of the world is approximately the same as their GDP weights (about one-third U.S., one-third other developed ...
by Angst
Wed Mar 18, 2015 11:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international is too much?
Replies: 113
Views: 9478

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

My point that 97% claim SS before age 67 was with regard to the claim sometimes made that few Americans can wait to claim. Sadly, that claim is probably true for a majority of Americans, but certainly there is a sizeable minority for which it is not true. There seem to be several reasons why only 3...
by Angst
Tue Mar 17, 2015 7:10 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 242
Views: 24654

Re: Why not use inflation-adjusted SPIA?

Can someone point me to the evidence that insurance companies use TIPS for SPIAs to any large extent? Not sure if this helps (it doesn't specifically refer to SPIA's) but this NY Fed 2010 document states (on pg. 15) that "Insurance companies hold 2.48 percent of the TIPS and 2.96 percent of Tr...
by Angst
Thu Mar 12, 2015 7:59 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why not use inflation-adjusted SPIA?
Replies: 117
Views: 5138

Re: Schwab Intelligent Portfolios

Don46 wrote:I'm very interested in this new program, which is now launched I see... [snip...]

Don, you should check out this current thread which has been discussing Schwab's newly released program:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=160555
by Angst
Tue Mar 10, 2015 1:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab Intelligent Portfolios [now live]
Replies: 368
Views: 32738

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

When it comes to predicting the future, the unknown always overwhelms the known. I have no trouble with Dr. Bernstein coming to conclusions based on facts/history, it's just that the big picture will always remain vague and cloudy, like that crystal ball, and it's that big picture which will determi...
by Angst
Mon Mar 09, 2015 5:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 23569

Re: Today's WSJ (March 9th, 2015)

Does this one work for anyone?
Deleting cookies first sometimes helps too. Just fishin' here though.
by Angst
Mon Mar 09, 2015 5:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ - Why Vanguard is Secretive on Stock ETF's
Replies: 13
Views: 1526

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

In what years did GDP rise more than 10%? Amazed at that. 1941 I could believe (war buildup). But others. Real GDP? The Source takes you to the website where the graph was included in an article. It appears however that the data used to create the graph was pulled from this website . Nice site! Tha...
by Angst
Mon Mar 09, 2015 12:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 23569

Re: Schwab Intelligent Portfolios is live

Wow! Regarding the graphic posted above , Schwab is showing a negative correlation between "Treasuries" and all of their equity categories listed. Around here, just hinting that treasuries might occasionally show negative correlations with stocks can get you raked over the coals. Do you t...
by Angst
Mon Mar 09, 2015 11:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab Intelligent Portfolios [now live]
Replies: 368
Views: 32738

Re: Vanguard et al disintermediated?

The article is interesting to read, but I'm not holding my breath. It's appealing and sounds reasonable, but long ago so was the notion of everyone flying their own personal vehicle to work everyday. For now, I'm more inclined to look forward to negative expense ratios and certain index funds routin...
by Angst
Mon Mar 09, 2015 11:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard et al disintermediated?
Replies: 39
Views: 2842

Re: Schwab Intelligent Portfolios is live

Wow! Regarding the graphic posted above , Schwab is showing a negative correlation between "Treasuries" and all of their equity categories listed. Around here, just hinting that treasuries might occasionally show negative correlations with stocks can get you raked over the coals. Do you th...
by Angst
Mon Mar 09, 2015 10:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab Intelligent Portfolios [now live]
Replies: 368
Views: 32738

Re: Convince me to buy international funds

[Snip]... I get it...past performance blah blah blah. But when making decisions on investments, can someone please show me that I'm wrong? I'm really trying to find ways to show me that international investing is worth it, but I feel like the performance over the past 20 years is just too lackluste...
by Angst
Sun Mar 08, 2015 9:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Convince me to buy international funds
Replies: 34
Views: 2665

Re: How do you watch TV differently after "cutting the cable

I've never had cable at home. Always gotten a kick out of gorging on it while in hotels but never spent a dime on it. I watch PBS over the air but my main source for content is the local library. I get DVD's of cable TV shows as well as movies and that works out fine. I typically am one season behin...
by Angst
Sun Mar 08, 2015 8:29 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How do you watch TV differently after "cutting the cable"?
Replies: 23
Views: 2241

Re: Baby Grand Piano

Find a piano tuner/tech who has a good reputation to evaluate any used piano you're considering buying. Used baby grands can be a great value, as long as the keyboard mechanism functions well and the pin block is good. If not, it can be a money pit. Btw, miscellaneous cracks in an old sound board ar...
by Angst
Sun Mar 08, 2015 8:21 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Baby Grand Piano
Replies: 42
Views: 3065

Re: I hate the new Vanguard Web navigation!!!

I've found a workaround: I've made separate bookmarks for Vanguard's home page, Vanguard's list of funds, my Watch List, and my account balances. This works, but it really shouldn't be necessary. I did the same thing - once I found the correct page. That took a while. My shortcut is (and has been) ...
by Angst
Sun Mar 08, 2015 5:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I hate the new Vanguard Web navigation!!!
Replies: 47
Views: 4770

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Just finished Deep, Down, Dark by Hector Tobar, a retelling of the 2010 story of 33 Chilean (1 Bolivian, actually) miners who were trapped for more than 2 months, 2,000 feet down inside a mountain. Highly recommend; fascinating and exciting story and examination of human nature. It should make a gre...
by Angst
Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:05 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 644
Views: 91137

Re: Wait till June Fed meeting before adding to VBTLX?

I don't really know if the Fed's efforts to raise rates will actually end up affecting intermediate or LT rates much at all. How confident are you that they will? What if it's all just a big yawn and IT and LT rates don't move?
by Angst
Sat Mar 07, 2015 6:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wait till June Fed meeting before adding to VBTLX?
Replies: 17
Views: 1173

Re: interest rate increase looming. what you gonna do ?

with interest rate expected to increase this year, what should be the strategy to handle that while our money is sitting in etfs/stocks ? It's the " that " which really throws me. What is there "to handle"? I don't directly interact with the Fed - they're not raising my rates, n...
by Angst
Sat Mar 07, 2015 5:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: interest rate increase looming. what you gonna do ?
Replies: 65
Views: 6447

Re: Bonds, REITs, Utilities, Commodities and Stocks down - W

It was indeed a Perfectly Red Day. I noticed this too. Rarely do I find absolutely everything in my portfolio going down. Then again, those savings bonds and CD's didn't turn red. :wink: SPXU did well. Sometimes you just need to get contrarian. See my other posts. To my mind, being "contrarian...
by Angst
Sat Mar 07, 2015 4:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds, REITs, Utilities, Commodities and Stocks down - Wow
Replies: 66
Views: 4518

Re: Bonds, REITs, Utilities, Commodities and Stocks down - W

ogd wrote:It was indeed a Perfectly Red Day.

I noticed this too. Rarely do I find absolutely everything in my portfolio going down. Then again, those savings bonds and CD's didn't turn red. :wink:
by Angst
Sat Mar 07, 2015 12:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds, REITs, Utilities, Commodities and Stocks down - Wow
Replies: 66
Views: 4518

Re: Tax Loss Harvesting - GWX to VSS

I have now held the shares for about 80 days. I believe that should take care of the 60 day limit to make dividends ( ? capital gains) "qualified" and also the vanguard limit for internet trading. I'm not qualified to answer your tax questions, but as far as ETF's go, there is no explicit...
by Angst
Sat Mar 07, 2015 12:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Loss Harvesting - GWX to VSS
Replies: 8
Views: 721

Re: When will / did you claim Social Security benefits?

Nice job on structuring your poll. Too often, polls don't seem well thought out before being implemented.
by Angst
Sat Mar 07, 2015 10:59 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When will / did you claim Social Security benefits?
Replies: 152
Views: 12188
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