Search found 260 matches

Go to advanced search

by Allan Roth
Wed Mar 04, 2015 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SIGN PETITION for Jack Bogle's Presidential Medal of Freedon
Replies: 55
Views: 4910

Re: "Money is freedom."

Thanks for your effort, Allan. Your column certainly resulted in a surge of petition signers. Sadly, it doesn't look like we're going to reach 100,000 unless we get a tsunami of sigs in the next few days. I'm saddened to see that so few of the 43,000+ members of this forum have signed the petition....
by Allan Roth
Wed Mar 04, 2015 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SIGN PETITION for Jack Bogle's Presidential Medal of Freedon
Replies: 55
Views: 4910

Re: "Money is freedom."

Maybe it depends on one's perspective. In 1961, Harlan Ellison wrote a novel called Rockabilly , later retitled Spider Kiss . At a turning point, the protagonist realizes he has enough money to walk away from a soul-destroying situation: Thanks - I think I need to read that book! Sound's like the s...
by Allan Roth
Tue Mar 03, 2015 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SIGN PETITION for Jack Bogle's Presidential Medal of Freedon
Replies: 55
Views: 4910

Re: WHY YOU OWE YOUR FREEDOM TO JACK BOGLE

Or, more than likely, someone else would have come up with it. Happens all the time. Good luck. I now see where you are coming from - saw a post a bit ago saying you owe nothing to BH and that you have bested the S&P 500 index. By using the wrong benchmark, it is easy to convince yourself you a...
by Allan Roth
Tue Mar 03, 2015 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SIGN PETITION for Jack Bogle's Presidential Medal of Freedon
Replies: 55
Views: 4910

Re: WHY YOU OWE YOUR FREEDOM TO JACK BOGLE

admire Bogle, but my freedom comes from hard work, etc. Nothing wrong with giving him an award, and i wish him the best, and along with those that believe that he is deserving. You certainly need hard work and the discipline to defer that immediate gratification to live below your means. But perhap...
by Allan Roth
Tue Mar 03, 2015 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SIGN PETITION for Jack Bogle's Presidential Medal of Freedon
Replies: 55
Views: 4910

Re: WHY YOU OWE YOUR FREEDOM TO JACK BOGLE

I agree that Mr. Bogle's contributions to the investment world should be recognized. However, I find the article a little insulting as having more money is not how I would define freedom. Do I owe him my Financial "freedom"? Absolutely. Saying I owe him my freedom and the connotation that...
by Allan Roth
Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How to Fix a Client Portfolio"
Replies: 31
Views: 2573

Re: "How to Fix a Client Portfolio"

Thank you, Taylor. I have a question: under the "Where to Put the Assets" graphic, there's a note saying "muni bonds are overused." Why does he say that? Three reasons: 1) taxable fixed income is best held in the tax-deferred accounts so don't own munis if you have equities in y...
by Allan Roth
Fri Feb 13, 2015 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with 5M?
Replies: 93
Views: 15435

Re: What to do with 5M?

youngpadawan was a perfect client - really learned (from great Bogleheads advice) and asked great questions along the way. Since the mortgage is the inverse of a bond, paying that off was the single largest source of "low hanging fruit" and, based on our initial conversation, that was done...
by Allan Roth
Mon Jan 05, 2015 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Words of Wisdom from Jonathan Clements
Replies: 17
Views: 2869

Re: Words of Wisdom from Jonathan Clements

As a retiree, I've learned that knowing fixed costs, even to the point of unintentionally memorizing them, and being prepared to cut spending as needed go hand in hand and are two of the smartest financial moves a retiree can make, especially an early retiree. Nisiprius makes an important point tho...
by Allan Roth
Mon Jan 05, 2015 5:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Words of Wisdom from Jonathan Clements
Replies: 17
Views: 2869

Re: Words of Wisdom from Jonathan Clements

The Minneapolis Star-Tribune publishes a portion of the Wall Street Journal Sunday Edition. Clements column usually appears there. Yesterday his column had 31 tips from his 2015 book. The article was much more extensive than the AARP version. I agree - I think AARP appropriately wouldn't want me to...
by Allan Roth
Mon Jan 05, 2015 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Words of Wisdom from Jonathan Clements
Replies: 17
Views: 2869

Re: Words of Wisdom from Jonathan Clements

(Big problem though is that health-related spending--particularly health-related spending not covered by insurance--isn't very "discretionary." That relates to another point, "know your fixed costs." An unfavorable health event can have a big effect on those fixed costs...) Admi...
by Allan Roth
Thu Oct 30, 2014 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: fleeced by an adviser, is there a recourse?
Replies: 104
Views: 10072

Re: fleeced by an adviser, is there a recourse?

so just some thoughts. Right now I use an advisor. I like him. He sends me a biannual reporting of fees. generally my fees are 1.2%. I think you need to reframe the way you think about it. If you think your fees are 1.2% annually, they are probably far more as the advisor likely has you in funds. L...
by Allan Roth
Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: fleeced by an adviser, is there a recourse?
Replies: 104
Views: 10072

Re: fleeced by an adviser, is there a recourse?

I'm not surprised that this type of salesmanship is allowed under the "suitability" standard. But I'm pretty shocked to hear that a person using such tactics could be considered a fiduciary. That's disturbing. I didn't pick the title of this piece but it describes how the "fiduciary ...
by Allan Roth
Wed Oct 29, 2014 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: fleeced by an adviser, is there a recourse?
Replies: 104
Views: 10072

Re: fleeced by an adviser, is there a recourse?

As an advisor, I can tell you the odds are stacked against the consumer. Everything is disclosed but it's disclosed in such a way that the "so what" is buried deep in a thick document and in such a technical way that the consumer has virtually no chance of understanding. Advisors attend tr...
by Allan Roth
Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "8 Year-End Tax Moves to Make Now"
Replies: 9
Views: 2067

Re: "8 Year-End Tax Moves to Make Now"

A Roth conversion allows a partial recharaterization to correct any miscalculation of your marginal tax bracket.
by Allan Roth
Sat May 03, 2014 12:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best retirement books request
Replies: 28
Views: 3525

Best retirement books request

I'm going to do a review of the best retirement books. In addition to The Bogleheads' Guide, are their any relatively recent books you found particularly helpful? Thanks! Allan
by Allan Roth
Sat Apr 26, 2014 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth: "Don't Buy It" (AARP Magazine)
Replies: 21
Views: 7704

Re: Allan Roth: "Don't Buy It" (AARP Magazine)

This was a fun piece to write. Apparently, I have offended the timeshare industry. I'm expanding from offending the insurance industry, brokerage industry, and much of the mutual fund industry.
by Allan Roth
Wed Mar 26, 2014 3:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Daretobedull--Allan Roth
Replies: 14
Views: 2698

Re: Daretobedull--Allan Roth

Thanks for all the nice comments. You are all perfect clients in that you want to take control of your financial future and don't want to keep paying me each and every year. After all, you earned and saved the money so there is no reason for me to keep making money from your money. Thanks again - th...
by Allan Roth
Tue Mar 25, 2014 11:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Daretobedull--Allan Roth
Replies: 14
Views: 2698

Re: Daretobedull--Allan Roth

Thanks for the kind words Taylor and Sarahjane.

I'm a CPA and CFP. The outstanding advisor Rick Ferri is a CFA.

I'm really proud to be part of the Bogleheads!
by Allan Roth
Sun Mar 02, 2014 6:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thought provoking Zweig Article in WSJ
Replies: 32
Views: 11174

Re: Thought provoking Zweig Article in WSJ

I simply am ignoring the concerns that he has as states adjust and the number of municipal defaults is literally zero and Vanguard is ahead of the curve. From the Berkshire Hathaway annual report: Local and state financial problems are accelerating, in large part because public entities promised pe...
by Allan Roth
Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Allan Roth on "Richest Guy in the Graveyard"
Replies: 53
Views: 7673

Re: Allan Roth on "Richest Guy in the Graveyard"

Thank you for commenting Allan! I am intrigued by the concept of re-characterization into a Roth. But I’m having trouble wrapping my head around it. Is it just a partial conversion from a traditional IRA/401k into a Roth account, where the portion transferred is an asset that has depreciated? As an...
by Allan Roth
Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Allan Roth on "Richest Guy in the Graveyard"
Replies: 53
Views: 7673

Re: Allan Roth on "Richest Guy in the Graveyard"

IF you have multiple accounts that you cannot combine, you can still have effectively the same investments in each one. I have separate retirement accounts, but total market index funds (from different providers) in all of them. Not really.... In order to rebalance you need to add more funds to acc...
by Allan Roth
Fri Feb 28, 2014 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Allan Roth on "Richest Guy in the Graveyard"
Replies: 53
Views: 7673

Re: Allan Roth on "Richest Guy in the Graveyard"

Thanks for the kind words. A few comments: Later in life, it's nearly impossible to get someone who has spent beyond their means to change behavior. While a bit easier, it's also very hard to get someone who has spent their whole life accumulating to suddenly have permission to start spending it dow...
by Allan Roth
Sat Feb 22, 2014 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thought provoking Zweig Article in WSJ
Replies: 32
Views: 11174

Re: Thought provoking Zweig Article in WSJ

FWIW IMO Allan Roth is WAY WRONG on that issue--if you limit your holdings to AAA/AA and only essential services historically, even in the great depression, the default losses almost ZERO. The mistake that many make is the same one that Meredith Whitney made with her forecast which no looks absurd ...
by Allan Roth
Sat Feb 08, 2014 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jonathan Clements to return to Wall Street Journal Sunday.
Replies: 29
Views: 3622

Re: Jonathan Clements to return to WALL STREET JOURNAL SUNDA

Without being cynical, is there anything that any of us can actually learn by reading his columns, or frankly anybody's columns, that would have any effect on anything we would do aside from it's providing some confirmation bias or promote some unnecessary fears? I mean that. I can't speak for you ...
by Allan Roth
Sat Feb 08, 2014 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jonathan Clements to return to Wall Street Journal Sunday.
Replies: 29
Views: 3622

Jonathan Clements to return to Wall Street Journal Sunday.

I have some great news for investors - beginning April 6, Jonathan Clements will again be writing for THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Sunday! He will also be writing a new book to be published on January 1, 2015. In my opinion, Jonathan has done so much to help consumers understand personal finance and I co...
by Allan Roth
Wed Feb 05, 2014 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: JOHN BOGLE'S NOMINATION FOR PRESIDENTIAL MEDAL OF FREEDOM
Replies: 43
Views: 5554

Re: JOHN BOGLE'S NOMINATION FOR PRESIDENTIAL MEDAL OF FREEDO

Money is stored energy to give people the freedom to do what they want with their lives. No one has created more freedom for consumers than Jack Bogle!
by Allan Roth
Sun Feb 02, 2014 3:33 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Taylor's 90th Birthday
Replies: 272
Views: 24100

Re: TAYLOR'S 90th BIRTHDAY

I am incredibly tardy in wishing Taylor a very happy 90th! Taylor, thank you for your tireless efforts to help so many people. Today, there are over $2.3 trillion in index funds as active funds are on the decline. In large part, this is due to Taylor and all of the Bogleheads for spreading the wisdom.
by Allan Roth
Mon Nov 25, 2013 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happened to Larry Swedroe's and Allan Roth's Blogs?
Replies: 26
Views: 3697

Re: What happened to Larry Swedroe's and Allan Roth's Blogs?

CBS MoneyWatch is making some changes (again) and the author pages are broken. I am still writing for CBS MoneyWatch as well as The Wall Street Journal Total Return Blog. This link isn't perfect but comes up with recent pieces. http://www.cbsnews.com/search/%22allan-roth%22/?o=1 Sorry about that - ...
by Allan Roth
Sat Nov 23, 2013 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happened to Larry Swedroe's and Allan Roth's Blogs?
Replies: 26
Views: 3697

Re: What happened to Larry Swedroe's and Allan Roth's Blogs?

CBS MoneyWatch is making some changes (again) and the author pages are broken. I am still writing for CBS MoneyWatch as well as The Wall Street Journal Total Return Blog. This link isn't perfect but comes up with recent pieces. http://www.cbsnews.com/search/%22allan-roth%22/?o=1 Sorry about that - I...
by Allan Roth
Sun Sep 08, 2013 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One More "Don't Buy This Book" from Bill Bernstein
Replies: 73
Views: 11979

Re: One More "Don't Buy This Book" from Bill Bernstein

I really liked Jason Zweig's summary and I wrote my own. http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-57601017/deep-risks-to-your-portfolio/ While I rarely disagree with William Bernstein, I have to recommend you buy his eBook. It's brilliant and far more valuable reading the whole thing than any summary.
by Allan Roth
Wed Jun 19, 2013 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Requesting your help for a book on Jack Bogle's legacy
Replies: 25
Views: 2381

Re: Requesting your help for a book on Jack Bogle's legacy

Anyone know how to reach Stephen Barksdale, a physician in Ft. Worth, TX ? He made a great contribution to the book and we now need his permission to use it. Can someone please email me at allan_roth@hotmail.com if they have a contact for him? Thanks. Here is my guess... https://plus.google.com/118...
by Allan Roth
Wed Jun 19, 2013 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Requesting your help for a book on Jack Bogle's legacy
Replies: 25
Views: 2381

Re: Requesting your help for a book on Jack Bogle's legacy

Anyone know how to reach Stephen Barksdale, a physician in Ft. Worth, TX ? He made a great contribution to the book and we now need his permission to use it. Can someone please email me at allan_roth@hotmail.com if they have a contact for him?

Thanks.
by Allan Roth
Tue Jun 11, 2013 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alan Roth: "At long last, a forecast worth heeding"
Replies: 31
Views: 4525

Re: Alan Roth: "At long last, a forecast worth heeding"

RNJ: When Vanguard speaks--I listen. When Allan Roth speaks--I listen. When they agree--I listen intently. Thank you and best wishes. Taylor I can't tell you how fortunate I am to know you, Taylor. You, Mel, and all of the Bogleheads do so much to help investors! I'm so glad to be part of this grea...
by Allan Roth
Wed May 29, 2013 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"
Replies: 77
Views: 7405

Re: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"

Just for fun, I am going to set aside a small amount of money and do what the article suggests - I am going to do just the opposite of what Crammer says. I will keep you informed of the results. Do keep it small and, as you say, just for fun. It just so happened Cramer's "sell immediately"...
by Allan Roth
Tue May 28, 2013 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"
Replies: 77
Views: 7405

Re: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"

What the heck is going on in the Boglehood?? I expect an occasional speculation thread, but gambling on speculation? Please. It's critical to know the odds of investing. One way I use when someone is sure they know the odds when they don't is to offer a wager. The point of the exercise I teach at t...
by Allan Roth
Tue May 28, 2013 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"
Replies: 77
Views: 7405

Re: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"

although the article seems to be factual, it is not scientific. I can look back at my own predictions and see where I should have bought and sold stocks. What would have been more interesting is if they were able to do an expose on the Action Alerts Plus newsletter where Jim actually (supposedly) h...
by Allan Roth
Tue May 28, 2013 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"
Replies: 77
Views: 7405

Re: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"

The role of cramer was to make predictions on many stocks. The role of Mr. Roth was to somehow choose the two predictions that were way off. Although he did note the time period and write about them before-hand, I didn't notice that he set 6-month timeframe in advance, as others have noted. My gues...
by Allan Roth
Tue May 28, 2013 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"
Replies: 77
Views: 7405

Re: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"

We are on with this wager. Using the same methodology in this piece, give me two stocks today that will be in the top 4 performers of the 749 in the Wilshire Large Cap index. I think we’re misunderstanding the rules of the wager. I’m willing to play the role of Cramer in the article (i.e., making h...
by Allan Roth
Tue May 28, 2013 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"
Replies: 77
Views: 7405

Re: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"

]I'll bet you even money (okay 100 to 1 money) that you can't call the four worst performing stocks over the next six months? At 100 to 1 I'd take that bet, even at 20 to 1 the odds would be in my favor. Of course, like Cramer I get to make a lot of calls, a LOT of calls. Unlike Cramer who tries to...
by Allan Roth
Mon May 27, 2013 10:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"
Replies: 77
Views: 7405

Re: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"

Random Musings wrote:Jim Cramer has a reasonably high skill level when it comes to making money for himself.

In fact, much higher than most people.

RM


That much is true but let's not forget what Cramer does to keep the stock market efficient for us indexers.
by Allan Roth
Mon May 27, 2013 10:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"
Replies: 77
Views: 7405

Re: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"

To put this simply, you give me two stocks today in the Wilshire Large cap index which you can pull from Cramer or any other sources you want. If, six months later, they are two of the 4 best performers, I'll give you $16, but if you are wrong, you give me $1, which is 4x the 1 in 4 chance (1/2 x 1...
by Allan Roth
Mon May 27, 2013 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"
Replies: 77
Views: 7405

Re: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"

Overconfidence bias on your part. Uh, no. It's just math. In the scenario I laid out the odds are 1/16, objectively. Not true in the scenario I wrote about - I invested int HPQ and BBY on 11/20/12 and did not know how it would turn out and this is stated in the article on how he made me money. I ha...
by Allan Roth
Mon May 27, 2013 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"
Replies: 77
Views: 7405

Re: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"

Boglenaut wrote:Allen Roth is one of my favorite columnists, and I certainly think Jim Cramer says a lot of totally wrong things with great confidence. But I think Allen should stay away from statistical calculations for now. :oops: :oops:


Thanks Boglenaut. I'm willing to bet it's not 1/16 if I have any takers?
by Allan Roth
Mon May 27, 2013 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"
Replies: 77
Views: 7405

Re: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"

This is just downright wrong Allan. If he had made a call of either buy or sell on every stock, then every stock has 1/2 odds of being sell. Since he predicted every stock in this hypothetical scenario he would be guaranteed to have selected the top four performers, the only question would be wheth...
by Allan Roth
Mon May 27, 2013 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"
Replies: 77
Views: 7405

Re: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"

each stock has exactly 50/50 odds of underperforming/overperforming the index). If Cramer had made a prediction about every stock on the index, his odds of being wrong about the best performing four would be 2*2*2*2 = 1 in 16. 2 stocks were sampled prospectively which had a 1 in 35,062 chance of be...
by Allan Roth
Mon May 27, 2013 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"
Replies: 77
Views: 7405

Re: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"

I'm all for bashing Cramer, but the author of this article just cherry picked a couple of Cramer's predictions (from among hundreds if not thousands) and had the audacity to call his article a "statistical analysis"... Not cherry picked at all. If you clicked on the links, you'd see I did...
by Allan Roth
Tue May 14, 2013 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mountain America Credit Union 5-Year IRA CD
Replies: 57
Views: 6870

Re: Mountain America Credit Union 5-Year IRA CD

I'm checking them out now and all appears good. To qualify for membership, one only has to have bought an appliance sometime during their lifetime.
by Allan Roth
Tue May 07, 2013 7:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Google Invests $125 Million in Lending Club
Replies: 68
Views: 6838

Re: Google Invests $125 Million in Lending Club

Alain, I'm surprised at the bit of sarcasm at the end of your last 2 responses to my posts. I simply am stating why IMO I think your article is biased based on a small portfolio sample which you state was only aged a few months. You still haven't addressed why LC should mark to market their delinqu...
by Allan Roth
Mon May 06, 2013 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Google Invests $125 Million in Lending Club
Replies: 68
Views: 6838

Re: Google Invests $125 Million in Lending Club

Please re-read the article. The point wasn't that I extrapolated my small sample size and lack of experience. It was that the reporting from lending club included the full value of principal and interest from delinquent loans. You stand by your statement that my piece was inaccurate yet fail to poi...

Go to advanced search