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Best retirement books request

I'm going to do a review of the best retirement books. In addition to The Bogleheads' Guide, are their any relatively recent books you found particularly helpful? Thanks! Allan
by Allan Roth
Sat May 03, 2014 1:33 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best retirement books request
Replies: 28
Views: 3205

Re: Allan Roth: "Don't Buy It" (AARP Magazine)

This was a fun piece to write. Apparently, I have offended the timeshare industry. I'm expanding from offending the insurance industry, brokerage industry, and much of the mutual fund industry.
by Allan Roth
Sat Apr 26, 2014 6:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth: "Don't Buy It" (AARP Magazine)
Replies: 21
Views: 7410

Re: Daretobedull--Allan Roth

Thanks for all the nice comments. You are all perfect clients in that you want to take control of your financial future and don't want to keep paying me each and every year. After all, you earned and saved the money so there is no reason for me to keep making money from your money. Thanks again - th...
by Allan Roth
Wed Mar 26, 2014 4:20 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Daretobedull--Allan Roth
Replies: 14
Views: 2574

Re: Daretobedull--Allan Roth

Thanks for the kind words Taylor and Sarahjane.

I'm a CPA and CFP. The outstanding advisor Rick Ferri is a CFA.

I'm really proud to be part of the Bogleheads!
by Allan Roth
Wed Mar 26, 2014 12:03 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Daretobedull--Allan Roth
Replies: 14
Views: 2574

Re: Thought provoking Zweig Article in WSJ

I simply am ignoring the concerns that he has as states adjust and the number of municipal defaults is literally zero and Vanguard is ahead of the curve. From the Berkshire Hathaway annual report: Local and state financial problems are accelerating, in large part because public entities promised pe...
by Allan Roth
Sun Mar 02, 2014 7:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thought provoking Zweig Article in WSJ
Replies: 32
Views: 10637

Re: Allan Roth on "Richest Guy in the Graveyard"

Thank you for commenting Allan! I am intrigued by the concept of re-characterization into a Roth. But I’m having trouble wrapping my head around it. Is it just a partial conversion from a traditional IRA/401k into a Roth account, where the portion transferred is an asset that has depreciated? As an...
by Allan Roth
Fri Feb 28, 2014 6:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Allan Roth on "Richest Guy in the Graveyard"
Replies: 53
Views: 6825

Re: Allan Roth on "Richest Guy in the Graveyard"

IF you have multiple accounts that you cannot combine, you can still have effectively the same investments in each one. I have separate retirement accounts, but total market index funds (from different providers) in all of them. Not really.... In order to rebalance you need to add more funds to acc...
by Allan Roth
Fri Feb 28, 2014 6:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Allan Roth on "Richest Guy in the Graveyard"
Replies: 53
Views: 6825

Re: Allan Roth on "Richest Guy in the Graveyard"

Thanks for the kind words. A few comments: Later in life, it's nearly impossible to get someone who has spent beyond their means to change behavior. While a bit easier, it's also very hard to get someone who has spent their whole life accumulating to suddenly have permission to start spending it dow...
by Allan Roth
Fri Feb 28, 2014 5:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Allan Roth on "Richest Guy in the Graveyard"
Replies: 53
Views: 6825

Re: Thought provoking Zweig Article in WSJ

FWIW IMO Allan Roth is WAY WRONG on that issue--if you limit your holdings to AAA/AA and only essential services historically, even in the great depression, the default losses almost ZERO. The mistake that many make is the same one that Meredith Whitney made with her forecast which no looks absurd ...
by Allan Roth
Sat Feb 22, 2014 7:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thought provoking Zweig Article in WSJ
Replies: 32
Views: 10637

Re: Jonathan Clements to return to WALL STREET JOURNAL SUNDA

Without being cynical, is there anything that any of us can actually learn by reading his columns, or frankly anybody's columns, that would have any effect on anything we would do aside from it's providing some confirmation bias or promote some unnecessary fears? I mean that. I can't speak for you ...
by Allan Roth
Sat Feb 08, 2014 10:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jonathan Clements to return to Wall Street Journal Sunday.
Replies: 29
Views: 3446

Jonathan Clements to return to Wall Street Journal Sunday.

I have some great news for investors - beginning April 6, Jonathan Clements will again be writing for THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Sunday! He will also be writing a new book to be published on January 1, 2015. In my opinion, Jonathan has done so much to help consumers understand personal finance and I co...
by Allan Roth
Sat Feb 08, 2014 8:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jonathan Clements to return to Wall Street Journal Sunday.
Replies: 29
Views: 3446

Re: JOHN BOGLE'S NOMINATION FOR PRESIDENTIAL MEDAL OF FREEDO

Money is stored energy to give people the freedom to do what they want with their lives. No one has created more freedom for consumers than Jack Bogle!
by Allan Roth
Wed Feb 05, 2014 10:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: JOHN BOGLE'S NOMINATION FOR PRESIDENTIAL MEDAL OF FREEDOM
Replies: 43
Views: 5221

Re: TAYLOR'S 90th BIRTHDAY

I am incredibly tardy in wishing Taylor a very happy 90th! Taylor, thank you for your tireless efforts to help so many people. Today, there are over $2.3 trillion in index funds as active funds are on the decline. In large part, this is due to Taylor and all of the Bogleheads for spreading the wisdom.
by Allan Roth
Sun Feb 02, 2014 4:33 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Taylor's 90th Birthday
Replies: 272
Views: 22433

Re: What happened to Larry Swedroe's and Allan Roth's Blogs?

CBS MoneyWatch is making some changes (again) and the author pages are broken. I am still writing for CBS MoneyWatch as well as The Wall Street Journal Total Return Blog. This link isn't perfect but comes up with recent pieces. http://www.cbsnews.com/search/%22allan-roth%22/?o=1 Sorry about that - ...
by Allan Roth
Mon Nov 25, 2013 8:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happened to Larry Swedroe's and Allan Roth's Blogs?
Replies: 26
Views: 3540

Re: What happened to Larry Swedroe's and Allan Roth's Blogs?

CBS MoneyWatch is making some changes (again) and the author pages are broken. I am still writing for CBS MoneyWatch as well as The Wall Street Journal Total Return Blog. This link isn't perfect but comes up with recent pieces. http://www.cbsnews.com/search/%22allan-roth%22/?o=1 Sorry about that - I...
by Allan Roth
Sat Nov 23, 2013 4:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happened to Larry Swedroe's and Allan Roth's Blogs?
Replies: 26
Views: 3540

Re: One More "Don't Buy This Book" from Bill Bernstein

I really liked Jason Zweig's summary and I wrote my own. http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-57601017/deep-risks-to-your-portfolio/ While I rarely disagree with William Bernstein, I have to recommend you buy his eBook. It's brilliant and far more valuable reading the whole thing than any summary.
by Allan Roth
Sun Sep 08, 2013 7:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One More "Don't Buy This Book" from Bill Bernstein
Replies: 73
Views: 10964

Re: Requesting your help for a book on Jack Bogle's legacy

Anyone know how to reach Stephen Barksdale, a physician in Ft. Worth, TX ? He made a great contribution to the book and we now need his permission to use it. Can someone please email me at allan_roth@hotmail.com if they have a contact for him? Thanks. Here is my guess... https://plus.google.com/118...
by Allan Roth
Wed Jun 19, 2013 7:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Requesting your help for a book on Jack Bogle's legacy
Replies: 25
Views: 2160

Re: Requesting your help for a book on Jack Bogle's legacy

Anyone know how to reach Stephen Barksdale, a physician in Ft. Worth, TX ? He made a great contribution to the book and we now need his permission to use it. Can someone please email me at allan_roth@hotmail.com if they have a contact for him?

Thanks.
by Allan Roth
Wed Jun 19, 2013 3:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Requesting your help for a book on Jack Bogle's legacy
Replies: 25
Views: 2160

Re: Alan Roth: "At long last, a forecast worth heeding"

RNJ: When Vanguard speaks--I listen. When Allan Roth speaks--I listen. When they agree--I listen intently. Thank you and best wishes. Taylor I can't tell you how fortunate I am to know you, Taylor. You, Mel, and all of the Bogleheads do so much to help investors! I'm so glad to be part of this grea...
by Allan Roth
Tue Jun 11, 2013 6:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alan Roth: "At long last, a forecast worth heeding"
Replies: 31
Views: 4408

Re: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"

Just for fun, I am going to set aside a small amount of money and do what the article suggests - I am going to do just the opposite of what Crammer says. I will keep you informed of the results. Do keep it small and, as you say, just for fun. It just so happened Cramer's "sell immediately"...
by Allan Roth
Wed May 29, 2013 1:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"
Replies: 77
Views: 7139

Re: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"

What the heck is going on in the Boglehood?? I expect an occasional speculation thread, but gambling on speculation? Please. It's critical to know the odds of investing. One way I use when someone is sure they know the odds when they don't is to offer a wager. The point of the exercise I teach at t...
by Allan Roth
Tue May 28, 2013 11:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"
Replies: 77
Views: 7139

Re: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"

although the article seems to be factual, it is not scientific. I can look back at my own predictions and see where I should have bought and sold stocks. What would have been more interesting is if they were able to do an expose on the Action Alerts Plus newsletter where Jim actually (supposedly) h...
by Allan Roth
Tue May 28, 2013 2:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"
Replies: 77
Views: 7139

Re: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"

The role of cramer was to make predictions on many stocks. The role of Mr. Roth was to somehow choose the two predictions that were way off. Although he did note the time period and write about them before-hand, I didn't notice that he set 6-month timeframe in advance, as others have noted. My gues...
by Allan Roth
Tue May 28, 2013 1:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"
Replies: 77
Views: 7139

Re: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"

We are on with this wager. Using the same methodology in this piece, give me two stocks today that will be in the top 4 performers of the 749 in the Wilshire Large Cap index. I think we’re misunderstanding the rules of the wager. I’m willing to play the role of Cramer in the article (i.e., making h...
by Allan Roth
Tue May 28, 2013 12:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"
Replies: 77
Views: 7139

Re: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"

]I'll bet you even money (okay 100 to 1 money) that you can't call the four worst performing stocks over the next six months? At 100 to 1 I'd take that bet, even at 20 to 1 the odds would be in my favor. Of course, like Cramer I get to make a lot of calls, a LOT of calls. Unlike Cramer who tries to...
by Allan Roth
Tue May 28, 2013 10:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"
Replies: 77
Views: 7139

Re: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"

Random Musings wrote:Jim Cramer has a reasonably high skill level when it comes to making money for himself.

In fact, much higher than most people.

RM


That much is true but let's not forget what Cramer does to keep the stock market efficient for us indexers.
by Allan Roth
Mon May 27, 2013 11:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"
Replies: 77
Views: 7139

Re: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"

To put this simply, you give me two stocks today in the Wilshire Large cap index which you can pull from Cramer or any other sources you want. If, six months later, they are two of the 4 best performers, I'll give you $16, but if you are wrong, you give me $1, which is 4x the 1 in 4 chance (1/2 x 1...
by Allan Roth
Mon May 27, 2013 11:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"
Replies: 77
Views: 7139

Re: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"

Overconfidence bias on your part. Uh, no. It's just math. In the scenario I laid out the odds are 1/16, objectively. Not true in the scenario I wrote about - I invested int HPQ and BBY on 11/20/12 and did not know how it would turn out and this is stated in the article on how he made me money. I ha...
by Allan Roth
Mon May 27, 2013 10:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"
Replies: 77
Views: 7139

Re: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"

Boglenaut wrote:Allen Roth is one of my favorite columnists, and I certainly think Jim Cramer says a lot of totally wrong things with great confidence. But I think Allen should stay away from statistical calculations for now. :oops: :oops:


Thanks Boglenaut. I'm willing to bet it's not 1/16 if I have any takers?
by Allan Roth
Mon May 27, 2013 9:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"
Replies: 77
Views: 7139

Re: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"

This is just downright wrong Allan. If he had made a call of either buy or sell on every stock, then every stock has 1/2 odds of being sell. Since he predicted every stock in this hypothetical scenario he would be guaranteed to have selected the top four performers, the only question would be wheth...
by Allan Roth
Mon May 27, 2013 9:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"
Replies: 77
Views: 7139

Re: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"

each stock has exactly 50/50 odds of underperforming/overperforming the index). If Cramer had made a prediction about every stock on the index, his odds of being wrong about the best performing four would be 2*2*2*2 = 1 in 16. 2 stocks were sampled prospectively which had a 1 in 35,062 chance of be...
by Allan Roth
Mon May 27, 2013 8:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"
Replies: 77
Views: 7139

Re: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"

I'm all for bashing Cramer, but the author of this article just cherry picked a couple of Cramer's predictions (from among hundreds if not thousands) and had the audacity to call his article a "statistical analysis"... Not cherry picked at all. If you clicked on the links, you'd see I did...
by Allan Roth
Mon May 27, 2013 7:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "A Statistical Look at Jim Cramer's Skill Level"
Replies: 77
Views: 7139

Re: Mountain America Credit Union 5-Year IRA CD

I'm checking them out now and all appears good. To qualify for membership, one only has to have bought an appliance sometime during their lifetime.
by Allan Roth
Tue May 14, 2013 6:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mountain America Credit Union 5-Year IRA CD
Replies: 57
Views: 5604

Re: Google Invests $125 Million in Lending Club

Alain, I'm surprised at the bit of sarcasm at the end of your last 2 responses to my posts. I simply am stating why IMO I think your article is biased based on a small portfolio sample which you state was only aged a few months. You still haven't addressed why LC should mark to market their delinqu...
by Allan Roth
Tue May 07, 2013 8:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Google Invests $125 Million in Lending Club
Replies: 68
Views: 6393

Re: Google Invests $125 Million in Lending Club

Please re-read the article. The point wasn't that I extrapolated my small sample size and lack of experience. It was that the reporting from lending club included the full value of principal and interest from delinquent loans. You stand by your statement that my piece was inaccurate yet fail to poi...
by Allan Roth
Mon May 06, 2013 9:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Google Invests $125 Million in Lending Club
Replies: 68
Views: 6393

Re: Google Invests $125 Million in Lending Club

My point is the same as that as EmergDoc- the article seemed to be biased against LC because of Allan's inexperience of using the site. Admittedly LC is not for all investors, but can provide a good alternative investment while diversifying the risk of this type of lending across many loans (instea...
by Allan Roth
Sun May 05, 2013 10:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Google Invests $125 Million in Lending Club
Replies: 68
Views: 6393

Re: Google Invests $125 Million in Lending Club

I wouldn't do it myself. Here's a recent blog from Allan Roth: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-57582124/the-lending-club-a-critical-review/ P.S. It would appear that I'm a better active manager than Mr. Roth. :) http://whitecoatinvestor.com/tag/lending-club/ I would certainly agree that, as ...
by Allan Roth
Sun May 05, 2013 4:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Google Invests $125 Million in Lending Club
Replies: 68
Views: 6393

Re: Google Invests $125 Million in Lending Club

With all due respect to Allan Roth, I don't feel the slant of his article is accurate towards LC. If you say I'm inaccurate can you at least tell me what is either factually inaccurate or what you feel you don't agree with? If you re-read my piece, you'll see I say when the note is taken out of the...
by Allan Roth
Sun May 05, 2013 4:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Google Invests $125 Million in Lending Club
Replies: 68
Views: 6393

Re: Passive Investing Doesn’t Exist, But So What?

But we can let experts, like the ones at Vanguard, decide "active" things like how to buy Facebook once it becomes public and part of the index. I agree that this is technically active but I also agree "so what?"
by Allan Roth
Mon Mar 11, 2013 1:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive Investing Doesn’t Exist, But So What?
Replies: 26
Views: 2133

Re: Vanguard mutual fund vs etf

Admiral shares have the same expense ratio as ETFs but have several key advantages: no commission, no bid-ask spread, and no premium or discount paid. They are also easier to work with in that you can buy an exact amount. With an ETF, you must buy whole shares and the price is always changing so you...
by Allan Roth
Mon Mar 11, 2013 10:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard mutual fund vs etf
Replies: 22
Views: 7527

Re: Ally Bank: Poor Showing On Fed's Stress Test

Both banks were taken over and it took me about 15 minutes to get a check (they were local). If I have to worry about FDIC insurance, I will be out of all bonds, equities, and CD's and loaded up with gold and maybe wheat (and perhaps ammo). Good to hear about getting your money back quickly. I agre...
by Allan Roth
Sat Mar 09, 2013 7:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ally Bank: Poor Showing On Fed's Stress Test
Replies: 18
Views: 3625

Re: Does Vanguard hide fees?

Interesting point, and it still strikes me as useful if this information was in prospectuses rather than just buried in the SAI. Even if it will be used to mislead investors? I agree that this is a debatable point. I agree with Edelman's point to disclose costs but challenging without providing a m...
by Allan Roth
Wed Mar 06, 2013 12:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Vanguard hide fees?
Replies: 45
Views: 4120

Re: Does Vanguard hide fees?

Remember the downside of reporting brokerage fees. If a fund say had 0.20% in brokerage fees and had to put it as part of the expense ratio or the prospectus, it would have the incentive to arrange private transactions where the market-making firm would make its money on bid-ask spreads rather an br...
by Allan Roth
Tue Mar 05, 2013 10:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Vanguard hide fees?
Replies: 45
Views: 4120

Re: Does Vanguard hide fees?

Sounds like Ric Edelman could be sued for slander. Anyway, his ignorant comments have not slowed down asset growth at Vanguard. He doesn't hide it, but let's look at his sites EMAP Fee Schedule: EMAP clients pay no commissions, trading costs, brokerage fees or other administrative charges. Instead,...
by Allan Roth
Mon Mar 04, 2013 6:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Vanguard hide fees?
Replies: 45
Views: 4120

Re: Does Vanguard hide fees?

Alan, Lets say US is +5% real. That's probably a bit low, considering that the book-to-market ratio on US LC stocks is about 25% cheaper today (0.5) than it was 10 years ago (0.4) (YE 2012 vs YE 2002) and US TSM still managed to earn about 5.4% real over this period, but lets go with the lower #. W...
by Allan Roth
Mon Mar 04, 2013 4:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Vanguard hide fees?
Replies: 45
Views: 4120

Re: Does Vanguard hide fees?

Incidentally, equally as silly is this comment at the end of the article: Any investor willing to pay one percent annually in total fees is likely giving away most of their real (after inflation) returns and is merely taking on all of the risk for little or none of the expected reward. This is true...
by Allan Roth
Mon Mar 04, 2013 2:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Vanguard hide fees?
Replies: 45
Views: 4120

Re: Allan Roth's 5% income strategy

IMHO, it's just another way of saying that one should invest in tax-efficient funds - which implies using low-cost index/passive funds. Because there is no free lunch. RM There is certainly no free lunch (or I wouldn't be working for a living) and of course tax-efficient, along with LOW COST and DI...
by Allan Roth
Tue Feb 26, 2013 8:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth's 5% income strategy
Replies: 34
Views: 3529

Re: Allan Roth's 5% income strategy

This sounded nuts to me also at first. But maybe it makes sense. Thanks for giving it some thought grayfox and pkcrafter. This isn't a easy concept and takes some thought - simple and easy are too different things. It would be big if Wall Street could charge a lot for it. It is, however, based on s...
by Allan Roth
Mon Feb 25, 2013 5:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth's 5% income strategy
Replies: 34
Views: 3529

Re: Allan Roth's 5% income strategy

kenyan wrote:
I think you mean to say a less diversified and more expensive dividend fund.


Thanks - corrected now.
by Allan Roth
Mon Feb 25, 2013 2:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth's 5% income strategy
Replies: 34
Views: 3529

Re: Allan Roth's 5% income strategy

Maybe I'm missing something, but this "strategy" seems to boil down to liquidating a certain percentage of your equity holdings for income according to an arbitrary rule based on share buybacks. What is unique about that? It's not arbitrary. It's based on the total amount of cash companie...
by Allan Roth
Mon Feb 25, 2013 1:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth's 5% income strategy
Replies: 34
Views: 3529
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