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Re: Auto-rebalancing tool at Vanguard

You do realize that all of these transactions do cost something. Not much, but something. Charging nothing is in part marketing- people hate paying even very small purchase fees. It is also in part a recognition that charging a very small fee might cost more in record keeping than charging nothing....
by 555
Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Lack of] Auto-rebalancing tool at Vanguard
Replies: 68
Views: 12656

Re: What % of AGI did you pay in taxes for 2014?

-15%

So I voted "<5%", of course, but I think you needed a few more options on the low end.
by 555
Tue Jan 20, 2015 4:38 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What % of AGI did you pay in taxes for 2014?
Replies: 5
Views: 578

Re: Land - Me or my Neighbor

When did you find out it was not your land? (Already answered: Recently.)

You should not touch it. Let it revert to its natural state.
by 555
Tue Jan 20, 2015 1:32 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Land - Me or my Neighbor
Replies: 44
Views: 3422

Re: Milevsky's got me thinking immediate annuity????

SPIAs are great, but OP, you are very obviously not someone who needs one now. If that book told you to get one now, then it's not a very good book. (However, as others have said, for long term planning, keep SPIAs in mind for starting age 75-85, and maybe have some funds easrmarked for that potenti...
by 555
Mon Jan 19, 2015 2:15 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Milevsky's got me thinking immediate annuity????
Replies: 28
Views: 2456

Re: US/foreign allocation under massive relative US drop

... To clarify: I'm asking about what a rational investor should do in each situation, and want some exploration of that. I am not asking for personal portfolio advice. And evidently I wasn't clear. A rational investor will carefully consider asset allocation questions, make decisions, then impleme...
by 555
Sun Jan 18, 2015 5:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US/foreign allocation under massive relative US drop
Replies: 21
Views: 1428

Re: US/foreign allocation under massive relative US drop

How about something like 50% US, and 50% global (including US) market weighted? (You can change 50:50 to something else.) This has components of both home bias and market weighting, if that's what one wants.

With this, if US is X% of global market weight, then you'd be holding (50+X/2)% in US.
by 555
Sun Jan 18, 2015 5:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US/foreign allocation under massive relative US drop
Replies: 21
Views: 1428

Re: How Long Do You Keep Tax Records?

lululu wrote:The IRS requires IRA records to be kept forever.
I don't need these records (zero basis) and I think this is the typical situation.
by 555
Sun Jan 18, 2015 12:13 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Long Do You Keep Tax Records?
Replies: 28
Views: 2417

Re: How Long Do You Keep Tax Records?

lululu wrote:The IRS requires IRA records to be kept forever.

Why? What's the worst that could happen if I have no such records?
by 555
Sat Jan 17, 2015 11:47 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Long Do You Keep Tax Records?
Replies: 28
Views: 2417

Re: Taxact ultimate version $6

Hey I know. If I figure out how to save $10.95/yr on tax software, I can afford to eat an extra $0.03 worth of cornflakes every morning (except Feb 29th).
by 555
Thu Jan 15, 2015 5:31 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Taxact ultimate version $6 - DEAL OVER
Replies: 45
Views: 2730

Re: Taxact ultimate version $6

Meanwhile, if you shave 1 basis point off your expense ratio on a $1M portfolio, you'll save $100 per year.
by 555
Thu Jan 15, 2015 5:07 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Taxact ultimate version $6 - DEAL OVER
Replies: 45
Views: 2730

Re: Taxact ultimate version $6

I ordered the "early bird special" for Taxact ultimate version in July 2014 (they charge CC in Jan 2015) for $18.99. It may not be the cheapest deal, but you get their near final version in Oct 2014, so can put in numbers then and do some tax planning. I'm okay with this, for early access,...
by 555
Thu Jan 15, 2015 3:35 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Taxact ultimate version $6 - DEAL OVER
Replies: 45
Views: 2730

Re: Taxact ultimate version $6

What about state tax?
by 555
Thu Jan 15, 2015 2:44 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Taxact ultimate version $6 - DEAL OVER
Replies: 45
Views: 2730

Re: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?

I like Nisiprius' charts but I do not understand them. Although I am neither a mathematician nor a statistician, there is no doubt in my mind that we cannot make money betting on coin toss. It's just a random binary outcome. Okay, if you're so sure, perhaps you would be willing to bet some serious ...
by 555
Wed Jan 14, 2015 7:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?
Replies: 295
Views: 16575

Re: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?

I haven't read hardly any of the 6 pages of posts, but I'll "wager" an answer to the title question: Can you make money betting on random coin flips? In the short run, perhaps. In the long run, it is a statistical impossibility. The problem is knowing where the short run ends and where th...
by 555
Tue Jan 13, 2015 4:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?
Replies: 295
Views: 16575

Re: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?

It still calls for explanation why you'd withdraw at 2% if CPI adjusted annuities pay (at least close to) 4%, and the actual goal is just security in one's own retirement. Do those CPI adjusted close-to-4% annuities exist for 45 year olds? How about 40 year olds? Or are they only for the "clas...
by 555
Tue Jan 13, 2015 4:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?
Replies: 177
Views: 10670

Re: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?

I do not appreciate bait and switch tactics.
by 555
Mon Jan 12, 2015 7:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?
Replies: 295
Views: 16575

Re: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?

@Jacotus, you are dredging up old misconceptions (as had some other people before) that had already been dealt with earlier in the thread. Read the thread. You said "I am not a mathematician, but I am a physicist who spends most my time doing math." Then surely you should be able to easily...
by 555
Mon Jan 12, 2015 5:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?
Replies: 295
Views: 16575

Re: Can my employer open an HSA account for me without me?

Thanks Spirit Rider, that's good information. I knew the stuff about "testing period" etc, but it's definitely important.
by 555
Mon Jan 12, 2015 1:04 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can my employer open an HSA account for me without me?
Replies: 19
Views: 1402

Re: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?

I said this earlier but no one has commented on it. I am fairly certain that this is the "intuitive" reason why the strategy that maximizes log W (or growth rate) is perceived as better in some situations. Because the logarithm compresses the dynamic range of the outcomes, it reduces the ...
by 555
Mon Jan 12, 2015 1:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?
Replies: 295
Views: 16575

Re: Helping adult child understand investing

... But I certainly believe that a single person earning almost six figures has huge saving potential, and saving >$25k/yr should be extremely easy. (I'm making general comments, not about the OP's specific situation.) That is roughly a 40% savings rate of take home pay for a retirement account to ...
by 555
Mon Jan 12, 2015 12:48 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Helping adult child understand investing
Replies: 38
Views: 3348

Re: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?

Due to compounding, by the time the sequence gets long enough to know the ratio of heads and tails to "within a smidgen," it is also long enough for a smidgen of difference in the ratio to make a boatload of difference in the outcome. Right. As n gets big, 1/sqrt(n) gets small, but sqrt(n...
by 555
Mon Jan 12, 2015 12:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?
Replies: 295
Views: 16575

Re: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?

Epsilon Delta wrote:W = (1+bf) ^ H * (1- f) ^T
Find the maximum by differentiating ...

Or you could use logarithmic differentiation.
Oops! There's that word again. ;)
by 555
Mon Jan 12, 2015 12:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?
Replies: 295
Views: 16575

Re: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?

The whole idea of setting an initial withdrawal level as a percentage of current wealth and then increasing it by inflation, regardless of changes in wealth, is poor, so it is better to think about other strategies, ... It's a total straw man to call it a "strategy". No one ever seriously...
by 555
Mon Jan 12, 2015 11:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?
Replies: 177
Views: 10670

Re: Helping adult child understand investing

I said per person . Compared to a single on a $90k/yr income, a family of 5 on a $45k/yr income has one tenth of that income per person. It was not me that used the words "real effort". But I certainly believe that a single person earning almost six figures has huge saving potential, and s...
by 555
Mon Jan 12, 2015 11:28 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Helping adult child understand investing
Replies: 38
Views: 3348

Re: Helping adult child understand investing

If she's GS13, renting without a family to support: She ought to be maxing the TSP contribution, plus maxing an IRA, plus at least some after-tax investing. Things will start growing faster when she starts making a real effort at savings. A GS-13, step 1 depending on the locality makes roughly 82-9...
by 555
Mon Jan 12, 2015 10:09 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Helping adult child understand investing
Replies: 38
Views: 3348

Re: Can my employer open an HSA account for me without me?

Thanks Nukie . It certainly is complex. Our FSA is definitely general purpose and not HSA-compatible. However I'm wondering about interpretation. I would say the FSA "plan year" is 1 Jan 2014 - 15 Mar 2015, so that would preclude HSA eligibility during those months even if the balance goes...
by 555
Mon Jan 12, 2015 9:46 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can my employer open an HSA account for me without me?
Replies: 19
Views: 1402

Re: Can my employer open an HSA account for me without me?

Both employers explicitly said in enrollment materials that no money would go into the HSA until any general FSA had been depleted. Because I wanted all my contributions to start with the first check, I depleted the accounts before year end. Aha, this is a clue. It sounds like your employer is dott...
by 555
Mon Jan 12, 2015 12:04 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can my employer open an HSA account for me without me?
Replies: 19
Views: 1402

Re: Can my employer open an HSA account for me without me?

I have a problem with the timing. There are technical tax issues when you have an FSA in year n, then an HSA in year n+1, since the FSA grace period encroaches into the following year. Technically, the HSA is not allowed to exist yet. <-- Are you absolutely sure this is a problem? I have until Marc...
by 555
Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can my employer open an HSA account for me without me?
Replies: 19
Views: 1402

Re: Can my employer open an HSA account for me without me?

So it looks like some people had their employers open an HSA for them with their knowledge and consent. But it looks like an employer automatically enrolling employees in an HSA with out employees' knowledge or consent, is legally questionable at best. Some posters have basically said that what I sa...
by 555
Sun Jan 11, 2015 7:48 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can my employer open an HSA account for me without me?
Replies: 19
Views: 1402

Re: Keeping CC Receipts

white_water wrote:A doctor's office claimed that I had a substantial unpaid bill ... 4 yrs later. I had the CC receipt. Issue closed.
Errors happen.

Perhaps a credit card statement would have been as good.
by 555
Sun Jan 11, 2015 6:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Keeping CC Receipts
Replies: 45
Views: 3558

Re: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?

Some people are fortunate enough to have both high earning power and low spending needs/wants, so obviously they'll get into a situation of only needing to withdraw a small percentage. But most people would find it hard to save up 50 years worth of expenses, so there are real questions about what ki...
by 555
Sun Jan 11, 2015 4:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?
Replies: 177
Views: 10670

Re: Can my employer open an HSA account for me without me?

Sidney wrote:Sounds to me like you need a new employer.

Probably a lot of the employees feel that way. :confused
by 555
Sun Jan 11, 2015 3:29 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can my employer open an HSA account for me without me?
Replies: 19
Views: 1402

Re: Can my employer open an HSA account for me without me?

All you asked is "is this legal" -- you didn't provide all these other facts. Given no other information, the answer you got was reasonable. Thet response was predictable but not reasonable. People need to use some common sense. In any case I already said in the OP "with out employee...
by 555
Sun Jan 11, 2015 2:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can my employer open an HSA account for me without me?
Replies: 19
Views: 1402

Re: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?

Currently for $1M you can buy an inflation-indexed annuity (SPIA) paying inflation-indexed $40k/yr for a 65 year old couple for (the longer) life... What insurance company currently has a joint life SPIA, with a 4% payout rate that is truly indexed for inflation, at age 65? I saw this link, that ot...
by 555
Sun Jan 11, 2015 2:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?
Replies: 177
Views: 10670

Re: Can my employer open an HSA account for me without me?

The real question is, does an employer/entity have the right to open an individual HSA account (all HSA accounts are individual) in an individual's name, without that individual's knowledge or consent? You should read your plan materials that will probably spell this out ala "If you sign up fo...
by 555
Sun Jan 11, 2015 2:23 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can my employer open an HSA account for me without me?
Replies: 19
Views: 1402

Re: Can my employer open an HSA account for me without me?

The employer had not done such mass openings before, so the (small) available employer contribution to HSA account would be paid in if/when employee chose to open it. I don't have a problem with the chosen HSA custodian, and have no intention of moving it. I have a problem with the timing. There are...
by 555
Sun Jan 11, 2015 12:57 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can my employer open an HSA account for me without me?
Replies: 19
Views: 1402

Can my employer open an HSA account for me without me?

I started an HDHP this January. (Every October we pick from a list of health insurance plans, for the following calendar year. The choice is made with a single online click.) Well I found out that my employer automatically enrolled all HDHP participants in the employer's chosen HSA without employees...
by 555
Sun Jan 11, 2015 4:41 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can my employer open an HSA account for me without me?
Replies: 19
Views: 1402

Re: Keeping CC Receipts

I have a ziploc bag for each quarter, and stuff receipts in the bag for the current quarter. Then I shred them after about six months, e.g. I just shredded the 2014 Q2 receipts.
by 555
Sun Jan 11, 2015 4:18 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Keeping CC Receipts
Replies: 45
Views: 3558

Re: Alternatives to M'star Instant X-Ray?

The OP hasn't logged into the forum for almost eight years. :shock:
by 555
Sun Jan 11, 2015 4:13 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Alternatives to M'star Instant X-Ray?
Replies: 6
Views: 4410

Re: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?

@ Bob.Beeman
I think you must have missed the point that the OP's payout is "double-or-halve", and also "triple-or-nothing" is being discussed.

Perhaps you are thinking of "double-or-nothing", but that has non-positive expectation, so is not germaine to this thread.
by 555
Sat Jan 10, 2015 9:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?
Replies: 295
Views: 16575

Re: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?

Currently for $1M you can buy an inflation-indexed annuity (SPIA) paying inflation-indexed $40k/yr for a 65 year old couple for (the longer) life inflation-indexed $40k/yr for a 60 year old individual for life Payouts would be higher in times of higher interest rates. Since that option is there, it'...
by 555
Sat Jan 10, 2015 9:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?
Replies: 177
Views: 10670

Re: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?

Bob.Beeman wrote:Sorry, but if the bettor persists he will ALWAYS lose in the end.
Nonsense.
Bob.Beeman wrote:This is due to the fact that, ultimately on some level, all bet amounts are integers.
Irrelevant.
by 555
Sat Jan 10, 2015 8:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?
Replies: 295
Views: 16575

Re: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?

The point is that "log of wealth" is the thing that is binomially distributed, and hence approximately normally distributed (after enough flips, due to central limit theorem). The (approximate) normal distribution is fully determined by its mean ("return") and standard deviation ...
by 555
Sat Jan 10, 2015 6:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?
Replies: 295
Views: 16575

Re: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?

SWR is just a calculation, not a strategy. It just gives a ballpark figure of how much to save up.

In the real world you can use annuities to eliminate some longevity risk.

Also look at the gazillion earlier threads on this topic.
by 555
Sat Jan 10, 2015 4:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?
Replies: 177
Views: 10670

Re: Fidelity Customers, What Do You Hold at FIDO?

I use Fidelity for my 403b because the 2nd best choice is TIAA-CREF, while Vanguard is not available (and the other choices are expensive garbage).

As soon as I can, I will move everything to Vanguard because
[_] better funds
[_] better service
[_] better website
[X] all of the above
by 555
Sat Jan 10, 2015 4:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Customers, What Do You Hold at FIDO?
Replies: 43
Views: 4037

Re: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?

So, then... is all this saying (merely?) that the Kelly criterion puts an upper limit on how much you should bet... that below that limit, it is a matter of personal choice, you are using a "fractional Kelly strategy" and are on the efficient frontier, but not above it? (Perhaps there is ...
by 555
Sat Jan 10, 2015 3:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?
Replies: 295
Views: 16575

Re: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?

I'm guessing "fractional Kelly strategy" means Kelly strategy diluted with cash to lower risk and reward. Your link has mathematical symbols missing.
by 555
Sat Jan 10, 2015 12:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?
Replies: 295
Views: 16575

Re: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?

Here's a semi-realistic example of a triple-or-nothing bet (with 50:50 win:lose) chance. A risky company could offer a junk bond, where you invest $10,000 now, and in return they give you a single lump sum of $30,000 two years in the future, if they are still in business, and let's suppose there is ...
by 555
Thu Jan 08, 2015 10:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?
Replies: 295
Views: 16575

Re: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?

The thing is, I have a TERRIBLE problem with saying it maximizes something that is "really very likely and gets more and more likely the longer the sequence is," because you have to have some sensible agreed-on way to account for the unlikely occurrences and you can't just throw them away...
by 555
Thu Jan 08, 2015 1:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?
Replies: 295
Views: 16575
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