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Re: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015

I don't really understand all the bond math but I believe that there is a contribution to the return from "riding the yield curve" that would justify a higher expected return than what some here think it should be.
by 555
Sat Mar 28, 2015 1:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015
Replies: 56
Views: 5125

Re: Obamacare subsidy and Roth IRA conversion

ACA is like many other government payout/subsidy that is phased out with increased income, which has the effect of an extra marginal tax. E.g. it could be that at a certain income the government gives you a $7,000 subsidy, but if you have $10,000 more income you get a $5,400 subsidy, a reduction of ...
by 555
Sat Mar 28, 2015 2:18 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Obamacare subsidy and Roth IRA conversion
Replies: 13
Views: 2326

Re: Recurring utility bills - How do you pay?

22twain wrote:Our utility bills (elec+water, gas, and phone+internet) are paid automatically each month by automatic debit from our joint checking account. We set them up nearly 27 years ago when we moved into this house, before online bill-pay existed.
How were those internet speeds in 1988? :wink:
by 555
Sat Mar 28, 2015 1:43 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Recurring utility bills - How do you pay?
Replies: 34
Views: 1835

Re: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015

I may be misunderstanding, but if the following is true: I n mid-March, a Zero Coupon Treasury Bond maturing in 2044 was priced to yield 2.43 percent. Since zero coupon bonds pay no interest, 2.43 percent is exactly what an investor will earn on their investment through the year 2044. ...then how c...
by 555
Sat Mar 28, 2015 1:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015
Replies: 56
Views: 5125

Re: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015

I have a question about long-term forecasts. Are they based on exact current market levels? The reason I ask is I'm in my early 20s and very much in the accumulation stage. So if we had a 40% market correction (assume for the sake of argument that the market is frothy at the time of the prediction)...
by 555
Fri Mar 27, 2015 10:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015
Replies: 56
Views: 5125

Re: Tax Question: Who is wrong, vanguard, me or Taxact

I think there should be both a tax liability for 2014, as well as some leftover basis in the IRA meaning 8606s will be needed every year. In retrospect the step "3. On 6/25/2014, I rolled over the funds totaling $9290.09 from my previous employer's 401(K) into my Vanguard traditional IRA" ...
by 555
Fri Mar 27, 2015 6:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax Question: Who is wrong, vanguard, me or Taxact
Replies: 7
Views: 1328

Re: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015

Well I think it is useful and helpful. People just need to be realistic about the level of uncertainty we have about the future, and should neither understate nor overstate that level of uncertainty. When it comes to making forecasts of the future, we know a lot more than nothing, and a lot less tha...
by 555
Fri Mar 27, 2015 6:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015
Replies: 56
Views: 5125

Re: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015

How accurate have Rick's previous market prognostications been? Saying that for US Large-cap stocks there is an expected annualized real return of 5% with standard deviation (of annual returns) 19%, is saying that there is a 95% chance that after 30 years the annualized real returns are between -2%...
by 555
Fri Mar 27, 2015 3:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015
Replies: 56
Views: 5125

Re: Landlord/Tenant Credit Checks

Thanks Twins Fan and Ddurrett896 for your input. Yes, it is a Property Management company that took the application for the apartment and ran a credit check on my relative. The lease said that only 1 person was living there so my relative asked the Property Manager if his girlfriend would be permit...
by 555
Fri Mar 27, 2015 2:53 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Landlord/Tenant Credit Checks
Replies: 18
Views: 885

Re: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015

How come the chart shows "BEFORE INFLATION RETURNS" as 2% higher than "RETURNS WITH 2% INFLATION"??? That seems backwards to me. -- Tet In the previous year's one http://portfoliosolutions.com/latest-learnings/blog/portfolio-solutions-30-year-market-forecast-investment-planning-...
by 555
Fri Mar 27, 2015 2:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri's 30 year market forecast 2015
Replies: 56
Views: 5125

Re: Tax Question: Who is wrong, vanguard, me or Taxact

I'd be interested in hearing more opinions about this.
by 555
Fri Mar 27, 2015 1:43 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax Question: Who is wrong, vanguard, me or Taxact
Replies: 7
Views: 1328

Re: Mom seeking financial help - what to do?

Okay the $1000 debt is real. I think the IRS installment plan is best as it forces reduced spending to pay the debt. It just becomes another "bill". They can deal with this without your financial help. This will also give you more time to think about how you will handle future occurrences ...
by 555
Thu Mar 26, 2015 5:41 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mom seeking financial help - what to do?
Replies: 62
Views: 4298

Re: If You Print and Mail, Do You Double-Side?

I print 2-sided, then tape the pages together into a Moebius strip.
by 555
Thu Mar 26, 2015 3:55 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If You Print and Mail, Do You Double-Side?
Replies: 43
Views: 13057

Re: Why 529 plan makes any sense??

Cliff notes: "529 doesn't suit me, so it shouldn't suit you either". 529 plans have a place, especially if you've maxed out your own tax-deferred investing vehicles. I agree. In some sircumstances, a 529 plan makes sense. My "Cliff notes" were a summary of what the OP is saying....
by 555
Thu Mar 26, 2015 2:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When does a 529 plan make sense to me?
Replies: 181
Views: 7488

Re: Why 529 plan makes any sense??

Cliff notes: "529 doesn't suit me, so it shouldn't suit you either".
by 555
Thu Mar 26, 2015 7:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When does a 529 plan make sense to me?
Replies: 181
Views: 7488

Re: Mom seeking financial help - what to do?

The saying goes "If you give them an inch, they'll take a mile." There are 63,360 inches in a mile. So if you give them $1,000 they'll try to take $63,360,000! Seriously now, I am very skeptical of the $1,000 needed for tax claim. Typical withholding from a regular job would yield a small ...
by 555
Thu Mar 26, 2015 4:03 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mom seeking financial help - what to do?
Replies: 62
Views: 4298

Re: Vanguard Ex-US Small Cap Value Petition

I'm opposed. Where do I sign the petition to oppose the OP's petition? :happy
by 555
Thu Mar 26, 2015 2:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Ex-US Small Cap Value Petition
Replies: 24
Views: 3001

Re: Why 529 plan makes any sense??

There is a misconception here. While I would need to consider taxes and FAFSA, I know that I can withdraw whatever I like from retirement accounts when my kids are in college. There would certainly be no penalty for such withdrawals. ?Why because you would be over 59.5 years old ? Contributions can...
by 555
Wed Mar 25, 2015 11:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When does a 529 plan make sense to me?
Replies: 181
Views: 7488

Re: Why 529 plan makes any sense??

A VERY BIG difference is that if you withdraw from a Roth IRA for education, while you may not have to pay the penalty, you may have to pay income taxes if you take out more than you contributed! The only times that it would be considered a completely tax-free withdrawal would be if you are: 1) wit...
by 555
Wed Mar 25, 2015 11:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When does a 529 plan make sense to me?
Replies: 181
Views: 7488

Re: Why 529 plan makes any sense??

If a person fully funded retirement account, a person most likely will not qualify for any financial aid. Then, FAFSA does not come into play at all. This is an absolutely ridiculous statement. It takes a huge salary to be disqualified from any financial aid, whereas you max out retirement accounts...
by 555
Wed Mar 25, 2015 2:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When does a 529 plan make sense to me?
Replies: 181
Views: 7488

Re: Why 529 plan makes any sense??

It is mostly true that one should contribute to retirement accounts (and max them) before contributing to 529, but if there is money left over, then 529s may make sense. But the OP is very badly mistaken about one thing. Money is fungible. There is no reason why a person cannot use Roth IRA to fund ...
by 555
Wed Mar 25, 2015 2:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When does a 529 plan make sense to me?
Replies: 181
Views: 7488

Re: The Only S&P 500 Index Funds You Will Ever Need

In my 401a I have TIAA-CREF S&P 500 Index Instl TISPX ER=0.06% The rest of the choices are mainly high cost active junk. I guess I'm lucky to have that one fund, and I put my whole 401a balance into it, and fill out my asset allocation elsewhere. But even though the ER is about the same as Vangu...
by 555
Tue Mar 24, 2015 10:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Only S&P 500 Index Funds You Will Ever Need
Replies: 11
Views: 2691

Re: Help w/ adult child hard-wired for poor financial decisi

This looks like voluntary downward social mobility. There is a strong tendency for some people to want to sugar coat these situations. That said, there is hope that she will come to her senses. Some gentle but firm expression of parental disapproval is entirely appropriate here.
by 555
Tue Mar 24, 2015 9:48 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help w/ adult child hard-wired for poor financial decisions?
Replies: 45
Views: 4630

Re: repair or replace old car?

You just mention this repair, but how much is the next repair and the one after that, and when will they be.
If you don't do this repair (and instead sell it) then you won't have to do all the future repairs as well.
by 555
Tue Mar 24, 2015 8:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: repair or replace old car?
Replies: 25
Views: 2190

Re: The Only S&P 500 Index Funds You Will Ever Need

I just wish 401k plans would use a Total Stock Market fund instead of typically using an S&P500 funds. For those of us wanting Total funds, we have find ways to plug the gaps, introducing unnecessary complexity, and sometimes expense.
by 555
Tue Mar 24, 2015 4:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Only S&P 500 Index Funds You Will Ever Need
Replies: 11
Views: 2691

Re: Roommate problems

I realize this seems somewhat strange. I have some knowledge of the reason for this secrecy. It would involve getting into family and moral issues that probably aren't appropriate for this board. Let's just say that the roommate's mother would not approve of her son living with any girlfriend - esp...
by 555
Tue Mar 24, 2015 5:23 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roommate problems
Replies: 39
Views: 4147

Re: "Mind the Gap"

If 95% of investors stay the course and it's the other 5% who are jumping in an out, then fund flows are only measuring the activities of the 5% who jump in an out, and ignore the 95% who stay the course.
by 555
Tue Mar 24, 2015 2:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Mind the Gap"
Replies: 9
Views: 2274

Re: Vanguard Problems [Account transactions]

Transferring between companies is the riskiest transaction, where most things can go wrong. When I retire I will probably move everything to Vanguard. I'm dreading the various potential foul-ups that can occur (and I'm I'm more concerned that the companies I'm transferring from will be the problem) ...
by 555
Mon Mar 23, 2015 7:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard Problems [Account transactions]
Replies: 22
Views: 3060

Re: Munis for Diversification?

This is like a vegetarian buying meat for diversification.
by 555
Mon Mar 23, 2015 3:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Munis for Diversification?
Replies: 14
Views: 1306

Re: Roommate problems

mac_guy wrote: I also don't think his cousin is going to tell his mother the girl will be moving in.
mac_guy wrote: I don't think my brother's roommate wants to tell his mother his g/f is living there.
Jill07 wrote:Why can't the Aunt know that the GF is living in the apartment?

This is the big question. Why such secrecy?
Maybe your brother should casually ask your aunt what she thinks of your cousin's new friend.
Let her decide, including the financial stuff.
by 555
Mon Mar 23, 2015 3:20 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roommate problems
Replies: 39
Views: 4147

Re: Georgia Retirement Income Exclusion

But wouldn't the exclusion apply only to State taxes and you would still be on the hook for Federal Taxes ? If so, it seems like a Roth would still make sense for most, right ? No, it would actually favor Trad. Don't forget Roth is funded with post tax dollars. I looked at the GA Doc and understand...
by 555
Mon Mar 23, 2015 2:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Georgia Retirement Income Exclusion
Replies: 22
Views: 2386

Re: Georgia Retirement Income Exclusion

passivestream wrote:But wouldn't the exclusion apply only to State taxes and you would still be on the hook for Federal Taxes ?
If so, it seems like a Roth would still make sense for most, right ?

No, it would actually favor Trad. Don't forget Roth is funded with post tax dollars.
by 555
Mon Mar 23, 2015 12:55 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Georgia Retirement Income Exclusion
Replies: 22
Views: 2386

Re: Georgia Retirement Income Exclusion

Okay, I found an official source
http://dor.georgia.gov/documents/2014-i ... ax-booklet
Page 14 "RETIREMENT INCOME EXCLUSION WORKSHEET" line 11: "Taxable IRA Distributions"
by 555
Mon Mar 23, 2015 12:52 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Georgia Retirement Income Exclusion
Replies: 22
Views: 2386

Re: Georgia Retirement Income Exclusion

What about IRAs?
http://dor.georgia.gov/retirees
"Retirement income includes items such as: interest, dividends, net rentals, capital gains, royalties, pensions, annuities, and the first $4000.00 of earned income." does not answer this.
by 555
Mon Mar 23, 2015 5:20 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Georgia Retirement Income Exclusion
Replies: 22
Views: 2386

Re: Vanguard Problems

You've definitely had your accounts mishandled, and hopefully they fix it and admit their errors. But I wanted to point out that sometimes you do want 401k(403b, 457 etc) rollovers to be put in a separate new rollover IRA, and not comingled with your regular contributary IRA. (I'm sure I'm not using...
by 555
Sun Mar 22, 2015 6:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard Problems [Account transactions]
Replies: 22
Views: 3060

Re: Should I invest my emergency fund?

RevYoung wrote:
555 wrote:My emergency fund doesn't have an asset allocation because you can't divide by zero.

So…you don't have an emergency fund.
Which is another way of saying you have invested it.
Do I get a prize now? :)

Right. It's all one big portfolio. An "emergency fund" is just mental accounting.
by 555
Sun Mar 22, 2015 4:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I invest my emergency fund?
Replies: 71
Views: 5973

Re: Should I invest my emergency fund?

My emergency fund doesn't have an asset allocation because you can't divide by zero.
by 555
Sun Mar 22, 2015 4:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I invest my emergency fund?
Replies: 71
Views: 5973

Re: Do all cost-basis calcs yield the same total capital gai

Addition is commutative and associative.
by 555
Sun Mar 22, 2015 4:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do all cost-basis calcs yield the same total capital gains
Replies: 5
Views: 435

Re: tax loss in IRA

No
ETA: "Your message contains 2 characters. The minimum number of characters you need to enter is 5."
But 2 characters was enough.
by 555
Sun Mar 22, 2015 3:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: tax loss in IRA
Replies: 5
Views: 654

Re: Medium bond vs short + long bonds & rebalance

I can't see how one could know a priori whether
Medium bond
would be better or worse than
short + long bonds & rebalance
by 555
Sun Mar 22, 2015 2:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Medium bond vs short + long bonds & rebalance
Replies: 9
Views: 1129

Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

I am not wrong. He says it right there in his video. I'm the one who made it into a challenge. But how am I wrong? He clearly said it. Agree or disagree, that is a different matter, but John Bogle suggest we do it. Mr. Bogle was talking about 401(K) plans and said it isn't something people really c...
by 555
Sat Mar 21, 2015 7:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge
Replies: 103
Views: 8564

Re: What Behavior Gap?

I think the OP has clearly made the point that there are various bad ways to measure "investor behavior" (and this has been discussed here and elsewhere before).

What are the good ways to measure "investor behavior"?
by 555
Sat Mar 21, 2015 7:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Behavior Gap?
Replies: 23
Views: 1828

Re: Why I don't file early

Traveler wrote:I've never understood how people with anything more complicated than a W-2 can file so early.
For a majority (or a lot) of taxpayers, W2 is the most complicated document they'll get.
by 555
Sat Mar 21, 2015 11:04 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why I don't file early
Replies: 35
Views: 3349

Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

The exact quote is; ‘Don’t peek.’ Don’t let all the noise drown out your common sense and your wisdom. Just try not to pay that much attention, because it will have no effect whatsoever, categorically, on your lifetime investment returns.” Right. That's completely different to the extreme suggestio...
by 555
Fri Mar 20, 2015 10:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge
Replies: 103
Views: 8564

Re: What Behavior Gap?

Actually, it's just a flawed association of behavior with sequence of returns. For example, if you accumulate for 10 years in a flat market which is subsequently followed by an up market, investor return looks great. Accumulate during a bull market which is subsequently followed by a flat market, i...
by 555
Fri Mar 20, 2015 8:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Behavior Gap?
Replies: 23
Views: 1828

Re: Vanguard on portfolio inflation protection.

No TIPS for me while accumulating. I'll start holding them near and in retirement.

Also I didn't realize quite how active V's TIPS fund is.
by 555
Fri Mar 20, 2015 8:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard on portfolio inflation protection.
Replies: 2
Views: 521

Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Oh and the spelling police tell me that people peek, markets peak.
by 555
Fri Mar 20, 2015 6:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge
Replies: 103
Views: 8564

Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

I actually think it is a good idea for anyone invested in volatile assets like stocks, to frequently watch the wild fluctuations for a while so they get used to it, as a kind of immunization against the noise.
by 555
Fri Mar 20, 2015 6:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge
Replies: 103
Views: 8564
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