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Re: what is risk?

LadyGeek wrote:Missing member check: The OP (skeptic88) hasn't replied in the thread. Did we answer your questions, or did we deep-dive off on a tangent and seem to have forgotten about you? Let us know.
Maybe he did some zero-risk activity like jump out of a plane without a parachute.
by 555
Mon Sep 29, 2014 10:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what is risk?
Replies: 113
Views: 3885

Re: Those under 35 with a child 5 or under: Costs of child?

For health insurance, our experience is probably typical of employer plans.
Adding kids (regardless of number) is about an extra $100/month (total, not per kid),
but adding spouse is about an extra $300/month (i.e. no employer contribution for spouse).
by 555
Mon Sep 29, 2014 8:19 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Those under 35 with a child 5 or under: Costs of child?
Replies: 51
Views: 3202

Re: Those under 35 with a child 5 or under: Costs of child?

Several people have said that having a stay at home mom is the most expensive choice. However, people should keep in mind the quality of care your child will get with mom versus day care. A child with a thriving spirit from being raised at home is hard to put a price tag on, not to mention the mom ...
by 555
Sun Sep 28, 2014 11:39 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Those under 35 with a child 5 or under: Costs of child?
Replies: 51
Views: 3202

Re: Those under 35 with a child 5 or under: Costs of child?

countofmc wrote:
livesoft wrote:Many daycares will give higher quality and more enriching care than a stay at home parent would.

I am afraid this is going to touch off a storm so I am going to exit my own thread, but thanks to all who shared their experiences, it was very helpful!

Bye-bye. We'll keep it warm for you.
by 555
Sun Sep 28, 2014 11:35 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Those under 35 with a child 5 or under: Costs of child?
Replies: 51
Views: 3202

Re: Those under 35 with a child 5 or under: Costs of child?

Extra housing $0
Extra vehicle $0
Child care $0
Tuition $0
Other costs: not much.
Other costs after tax benefits: about $0
by 555
Sun Sep 28, 2014 11:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Those under 35 with a child 5 or under: Costs of child?
Replies: 51
Views: 3202

Re: Those under 35 with a child 5 or under: Costs of child?

Anyway, in our situation ... oh wait! Nevermind. :oops:
by 555
Sun Sep 28, 2014 11:04 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Those under 35 with a child 5 or under: Costs of child?
Replies: 51
Views: 3202

Re: Those under 35 with a child 5 or under: Costs of child?

I'm 32. I wanted to hear the experiences of those around my age who have had children fairly recently. I wanted to narrow the responses because for general childcare cost info, there's plenty of threads. I also frankly was not interested in hearing about how much it cost 10-15 years ago to raise a ...
by 555
Sun Sep 28, 2014 11:04 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Those under 35 with a child 5 or under: Costs of child?
Replies: 51
Views: 3202

Re: Those under 35 with a child 5 or under: Costs of child?

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:What does one's age have to do with the costs of a child 5 and under? Do you really believe costs go up or down as an adult ages? :oops: No one gets a break on costs regardless of their age.

Yes, OP. Please explain this.
by 555
Sun Sep 28, 2014 10:55 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Those under 35 with a child 5 or under: Costs of child?
Replies: 51
Views: 3202

Re: what is risk?

backpacker wrote:Von Neumann and Morganstern gave us modern expected utility theory. But we shouldn't use their "authority" to batter posters who have different views about risk. This is because their treatment of risk is insane. I value $1000 ten times as much as $100. So Von Neumann and Morganstern tell me that I'm irrational unless I am indifferent between a 10% chance at a $1000 and having $100 for sure. But that's nuts. So expected utility theory doesn't tell us how investors should think about risk.
555 wrote:Ridiculous! It's completely obvious that you totally made that up.
backpacker wrote:^ I know! It's nuts. My example is just the Allais paradox. For the truth, see this paper. :beer

Okay, that's interesting, but your example is not an instance of Allais paradox.
by 555
Sun Sep 28, 2014 8:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what is risk?
Replies: 113
Views: 3885

Re: what is risk?

Von Neumann and Morganstern gave us modern expected utility theory. But we shouldn't use their "authority" to batter posters who have different views about risk. This is because their treatment of risk is insane . I value $1000 ten times as much as $100. So Von Neumann and Morganstern tel...
by 555
Sun Sep 28, 2014 7:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what is risk?
Replies: 113
Views: 3885

Re: what is risk?

But if a stock in ones portfolio goes bankrupt, then you have permanently lost money and its safe to say that the stock will not be volatile anymore. Can someone help me understand this? Before it happens, it is not certain, and even after it happens, it's not the only thing in your portfolio, so e...
by 555
Sun Sep 28, 2014 2:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what is risk?
Replies: 113
Views: 3885

Re: what is risk?

But if a stock in ones portfolio goes bankrupt, then you have permanently lost money and its safe to say that the stock will not be volatile anymore. Can someone help me understand this? Before it happens, it is not certain, and even after it happens, it's not the only thing in your portfolio, so e...
by 555
Sun Sep 28, 2014 11:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what is risk?
Replies: 113
Views: 3885

Re: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday

garlandwhizzer wrote:I do know that Pimco's stock went way down on the news and Janus's went way up which says that the professional investing community believes that he still has the magic touch.
Not necessarily. It would mainly be a reflection of the expectation that Pimco will lose AUM and Janus will gain AUM.
by 555
Sat Sep 27, 2014 1:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday
Replies: 106
Views: 8124

Re: Notice From Vanguard About Impending Transfer

One question. If this change forces you to have a sweep account, will they require you to keep it at $3k since it's a money market mutual fund?
by 555
Sat Sep 27, 2014 1:29 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Notice From Vanguard About Impending Transfer
Replies: 17
Views: 2050

Re: My 30-day trial experience with Betterment

When you are in the 15% tax bracket you want to tax gain harvest, at the 0% cap gains rate. If you tax loss harvest, t hen your carryover cap losses will effectively turn later cap gains into ordinary income , in terms of their marginal effect. Harvesting cap losses is just foolish in this case. Th...
by 555
Sat Sep 27, 2014 1:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My 30-day trial experience with Betterment
Replies: 57
Views: 5596

Re: Unexpected Emergency

Why didn't you have medical insurance with a reasonable maximum out of pocket expense?
by 555
Sat Sep 27, 2014 6:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Unexpected Emergency
Replies: 33
Views: 3218

Re: The Villages Retirement Community Near Orlando

The idea of a place that doesn't welcome children is just horrible.
by 555
Sat Sep 27, 2014 6:31 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Villages Retirement Community Near Orlando
Replies: 72
Views: 7556

Re: What's wrong with leverage?

If you understand the difference between arithmetic mean and geometric mean then you have your answer.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
by 555
Sat Sep 27, 2014 6:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's wrong with leverage?
Replies: 15
Views: 1091

Re: My 30-day trial experience with Betterment

When you are in the 15% tax bracket you want to tax gain harvest, at the 0% cap gains rate. If you tax loss harvest, then your carryover cap losses will effectively turn later cap gains into ordinary income, in terms of their marginal effect. Harvesting cap losses is just foolish in this case. The i...
by 555
Sat Sep 27, 2014 6:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My 30-day trial experience with Betterment
Replies: 57
Views: 5596

Re: In a Serious Situation Need Financial Advice

[OT comment removed by admin LadyGeek]
by 555
Sat Sep 27, 2014 4:21 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: In a Serious Situation Need Financial Advice
Replies: 45
Views: 7244

Re: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony

Aha! So now you see the wisdom of a glidepath!
by 555
Sat Sep 27, 2014 4:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony
Replies: 75
Views: 4177

Bancorp (mysmartsaver) HSA

Anyone have any experience with this Bancorp (mysmartsaver) HSA? I'm considering an HDHP that is linked exclusively with this HSA. Payroll deduction only goes to this HSA. (Direct contribution to another HSA has much less tax advantages, so other HSAs are irrelevant.) I would be using this Bancorp H...
by 555
Fri Sep 26, 2014 7:33 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bancorp (mysmartsaver) HSA
Replies: 0
Views: 135

Re: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday

ResearchMed wrote:This just in.

Wonder how (if?) it affects the SEC inquiry into Total Return ETF.

RM


Swap subject and object in sentence.

Wonder how (if?) it is(was) affected by the SEC inquiry into Total Return ETF.
by 555
Fri Sep 26, 2014 11:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday
Replies: 106
Views: 8124

Re: Notice From Vanguard About Impending Transfer

Assuming the message is authentic, this sounds like a good thing.
by 555
Fri Sep 26, 2014 8:10 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Notice From Vanguard About Impending Transfer
Replies: 17
Views: 2050

Re: POLL: Would you rather work half as long or half as ofte

For me, financial independence ASAP is the priority. There's really no difference between full-time work and half-time work. It's still work, and you're not free. I can't wait to be free of the need to work, and as a bonus, I can get out of this $#!%hole of a city I'm stuck in at the moment.
by 555
Fri Sep 26, 2014 12:24 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: POLL: Would you rather work half as long or half as often?
Replies: 68
Views: 3884

Re: Biggest discretionary expense in retirement?

According to this thread
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=147462
the biggest discretionary expense in retirement is a place to live.
by 555
Wed Sep 24, 2014 11:56 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Biggest discretionary expense in retirement?
Replies: 29
Views: 2919

Re: In a Serious Situation Need Financial Advice

The spouse sounds like a sociopath.
by 555
Tue Sep 23, 2014 11:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: In a Serious Situation Need Financial Advice
Replies: 45
Views: 7244

Re: In a Serious Situation Need Financial Advice

Can't know for sure, but my instinct is that the "inheritance" is not real.
by 555
Tue Sep 23, 2014 8:11 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: In a Serious Situation Need Financial Advice
Replies: 45
Views: 7244

Re: Rental property with in-laws: please help!

What do you think happens when you default on a HELOC? http://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/lenders-seek-court-actions-against-homeowners-years-after-foreclosure/2013/06/15/3c6a04ce-96fc-11e2-b68f-dc5c4b47e519_story.html It doesn't go away. Hmmm, the article is (mainly) about Maryland. stat...
by 555
Thu Sep 18, 2014 3:26 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rental property with in-laws: please help!
Replies: 128
Views: 7815

Re: Rental property with in-laws: please help!

It seems to me that OP('s wife) is stuck with the debt, regardless of who actually owns the property.

Who does own this property, anyway?
by 555
Wed Sep 17, 2014 2:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rental property with in-laws: please help!
Replies: 128
Views: 7815

Re: The dangerous practice of rebalancing...

Not sure if anyone pointed it out yet but "The dangerous practice of rebalancing" is just "clickbait".
by 555
Tue Sep 16, 2014 1:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dangerous practice of rebalancing...
Replies: 191
Views: 14001

Re: Optimizing Lifetime Taxes Using Roth and Trad Accounts

celia wrote:555, What kind of income would you have to have to get into a situation like this?
It's due to various credits.
by 555
Sun Sep 14, 2014 11:41 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Optimizing Lifetime Taxes Using Roth and Trad Accounts
Replies: 12
Views: 832

Re: Optimizing Lifetime Taxes Using Roth and Trad Accounts

Ybsybs wrote:I have no idea what you mean. Could you explain?

Suppose you pay -$5k in federal in federal tax. Suppose an extra $1k in income would increase your federal tax to -$4.6k. Then your marginal tax rate is 40%.
by 555
Sun Sep 14, 2014 11:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Optimizing Lifetime Taxes Using Roth and Trad Accounts
Replies: 12
Views: 832

Re: Optimizing Lifetime Taxes Using Roth and Trad Accounts

Anyway, I appreciate the calculations. My retirement situation is simple in the sense that I will have no pension or SS, and probably no taxable account, so your analysis applies to my situation. It confirms what I expected, that I can have a decent balance (>$2M) and still stay in the 15% bracket, ...
by 555
Sun Sep 14, 2014 10:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Optimizing Lifetime Taxes Using Roth and Trad Accounts
Replies: 12
Views: 832

Re: Optimizing Lifetime Taxes Using Roth and Trad Accounts

(A) When you have low enough income to effectively not pay income taxes but still enough to be eligible to make contributions to tax advantaged accounts – contribute to Roth accounts. This is very wrong. You can have zero or negative federal tax but still have very high (positive) marginal tax rate...
by 555
Sun Sep 14, 2014 10:44 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Optimizing Lifetime Taxes Using Roth and Trad Accounts
Replies: 12
Views: 832

Re: The dangerous practice of rebalancing...

If someone does not intend to rebalance after a stock correction, my opinion is that this person has an inappropriate asset allocation (AA) with too much stocks in it. Let me explain how I came to that conclusion: If one is willing to hold a smaller proportion of stocks in his portfolio after a cor...
by 555
Sat Sep 13, 2014 2:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dangerous practice of rebalancing...
Replies: 191
Views: 14001

Re: Strong dollar = tilt international?

columbia wrote:I believe the OP was thinking about increasing the percentage of international.
I was responding to this.
nisiprius wrote:I think you've got it exactly backwards
Regardless of whether you're rebalancing or overbalancing you're still generally buying the cheaper asset, so nothing was backwards.
by 555
Sat Sep 13, 2014 12:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strong dollar = tilt international?
Replies: 15
Views: 1475

Re: Strong dollar = tilt international?

I think you've got it exactly backwards Wait. Don't your charts exactly support the OP's contention. If the US$ goes up, buy for international stock, since it would be getting cheaper. That's what rebalancing would have you do anyway. I think nisiprius is exactly right. I wouldn't change AA. I don'...
by 555
Sat Sep 13, 2014 11:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strong dollar = tilt international?
Replies: 15
Views: 1475

Re: Strong dollar = tilt international?

nisiprius wrote:I think you've got it exactly backwards

Wait. Don't your charts exactly support the OP's contention. If the US$ goes up, buy for international stock, since it would be getting cheaper. That's what rebalancing would have you do anyway.
by 555
Sat Sep 13, 2014 4:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strong dollar = tilt international?
Replies: 15
Views: 1475

Re: Google Voice Not Supported on OBi Devices After May 15 2

It looks like I had the right approach. Do nothing and hope it all blows over.
by 555
Thu Sep 11, 2014 7:27 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Google Voice Not Supported on OBi Devices After May 15 2014
Replies: 102
Views: 10948

Re: Trying to get my company to switch to Vanguard 401(k)

Alskar , do you have a source/link for those numbers? Also do you know if it is different for 403b's? (My employer enquired about Vanguard being a 403b provider and was told it would cost >$100 per participant.) I don't have a link to them, but I got them directly from John Lent at Vanguard in Phoe...
by 555
Tue Sep 09, 2014 10:45 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Trying to get my company to switch to Vanguard 401(k)
Replies: 24
Views: 1962

Re: Diversification in practice: Investing from Australia

555 wrote:
RhinoTroy wrote:* AUD is also highly correlated

AUD is also highly correlated to what?

Anyone know what was meant here?
by 555
Tue Sep 09, 2014 10:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification in practice: Investing from Australia
Replies: 22
Views: 1746

Re: Credit Card Account [Automatically Closed] due to inacti

This was about ten years ago. I had similar experiences trying to cancel dial-up internet. In that case the phone rep would eventually give in and tell me it was cancelled. But then they kept charging and when I called back they said oh that phone rep wasn't authorized to do the cancellation. There'...
by 555
Sun Sep 07, 2014 5:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Credit Card Account [Automatically Closed] due to inactivity
Replies: 29
Views: 1970

Re: Credit Card Account [Automatically Closed] due to inacti

If you try to cancel a credit card you no longer want, it's virtually impossible. The only way I've found to kill a credit card is to not use it for several years. Thats not my experience. If you call the number on the back of the card and say you want to cancel the card, they will do so. They migh...
by 555
Sun Sep 07, 2014 3:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Credit Card Account [Automatically Closed] due to inactivity
Replies: 29
Views: 1970

Re: Diversification in practice: Investing from Australia

RhinoTroy wrote:* AUD is also highly correlated

AUD is also highly correlated to what?
by 555
Sun Sep 07, 2014 12:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification in practice: Investing from Australia
Replies: 22
Views: 1746

Re: Automatic Closing of Credit Card Accounts due to inactiv

If you try to cancel a credit card you no longer want, it's virtually impossible. The only way I've found to kill a credit card is to not use it for several years.
by 555
Sun Sep 07, 2014 12:48 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Credit Card Account [Automatically Closed] due to inactivity
Replies: 29
Views: 1970

Re: Why is REIT only sector fund recommended in slice & dice

Some people hold REITs and stay the course. Some people don't hold REITs and stay the course. Both are reasonable. The difficulty is when you are considering changing your asset allocation, perhaps based on reading what others say your portfolio should include. That's when valuations could matter. T...
by 555
Sun Sep 07, 2014 10:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is REIT only sector fund recommended in slice & dice?
Replies: 113
Views: 7893

Re: Approx'ing TISM with limited fund options.

Okay, I played with Morningstar instant x-ray. It looks like the best style box match to TISM is with
87% FSGDX (Fid large international)
13% VFSVX (Vang mid/small international)
blended ER 0.21%

It still could be that FSGDX is good enough.
by 555
Sun Sep 07, 2014 10:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Approx'ing TISM with limited fund options.
Replies: 9
Views: 629
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