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Re: To Tilt or Not to Tilt - Rick Ferri's Latest

Expecting "tilt" to offset the cost of the advisor did not seem feasible. 1210 Using Rick's Portfolio Solutions projections, a 60/40 portfolio would have an expected return of 5.76% (60% x 7.6%)+(40% x 3.0%). If an adviser charges 1% per annum, how much "tilt" would be required ...
by 1210sda
Sat Jul 19, 2014 1:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To Tilt or Not to Tilt - Rick Ferri's Latest
Replies: 72
Views: 6357

Re: To Tilt or Not to Tilt - Rick Ferri's Latest

If I interpret both of those statements correctly, it seems a more straightforward way to get higher potential (aka expected) returns would be to increase your allocation to equities without any tilt. " I say go for simplicity. Just increase your equity allocation a little. Bertilak, I totally...
by 1210sda
Fri Jul 18, 2014 2:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To Tilt or Not to Tilt - Rick Ferri's Latest
Replies: 72
Views: 6357

Re: Hospital bill negotiation

This is a great topic that I will file away for future use. We (DW and I ) have had one experience in dealing with disagreeing with our doctor's bill. I reviewed the bill (minor female type surgery) and right away I disagreed with some of the charges. (Please don't ask what the disagreement was....i...
by 1210sda
Fri Jul 18, 2014 9:11 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hospital bill negotiation
Replies: 48
Views: 3877

Re: "The Incredibly Shrinking Financial System" by Jack Bogl

Thanks for posting Taylor. I wonder if this will eventually be on Jack's blog??
1210
by 1210sda
Wed Jul 16, 2014 5:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Incredibly Shrinking Financial System" by Jack Bogle
Replies: 10
Views: 1598

Re: Oil Change due: Synthetic vs Regular Oil

To all Bogleheads who responded to my post...........THANK YOU VERY MUCH. You are great.

I have a lot of re-reading and thinking to do.

1210
by 1210sda
Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Oil Change due: Synthetic vs Regular Oil
Replies: 33
Views: 2722

Re: Oil Change due: Synthetic vs Regular Oil

1210, I suspect from the oil requirement stated in the owner's manual (and your lack of reply to the make, model, and year of car) that you do not have a high-performance (e.g., turbo) engine in the car. Those engines most always require a pure synthetic oil. What do you own? Sorry about make/model...
by 1210sda
Mon Jul 14, 2014 1:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Oil Change due: Synthetic vs Regular Oil
Replies: 33
Views: 2722

Re: Oil Change due: Synthetic vs Regular Oil

What make, model and year of car? Type of driving (city, highway, or a mix)? Lots of short trips? Mix, short trips Climate (very hot summers, very cold winters, dusty)? Hot summers How often do you change the oil and filter? Low Mileage user....about every 6 to 8 months Do you tow boats or trailers...
by 1210sda
Mon Jul 14, 2014 1:13 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Oil Change due: Synthetic vs Regular Oil
Replies: 33
Views: 2722

Re: Oil Change due: Synthetic vs Regular Oil

Ron wrote:What does your owner's manual say?

- Ron



**Engine oil with API Certification Mark
**Viscosity SAE 5W-30
That's all.

??????

1210
by 1210sda
Mon Jul 14, 2014 1:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Oil Change due: Synthetic vs Regular Oil
Replies: 33
Views: 2722

Oil Change due: Synthetic vs Regular Oil

I'm going in for an oil change soon. I was given a quote for both synthetic and regular oil. The Synthetic one is 35% more than the regular oil.

Is it worth it??

Bogleheads to the rescue...........

1210
by 1210sda
Mon Jul 14, 2014 12:49 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Oil Change due: Synthetic vs Regular Oil
Replies: 33
Views: 2722

Re: Facing possibilities [Self-funded Long-Term Care]

What if BOTH of you need care before the 5 year Medicaid lookback runs out? If BOTH needed care (either at the same time, or one at a time), you wouldn't need your home to live in. You could sell it and use the proceeds to help pay for the NH. Of course, the greater the equity in the house, the bet...
by 1210sda
Tue Jul 08, 2014 12:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Facing possibilities [Self-funded Long-Term Care]
Replies: 13
Views: 907

Re: 4% Withdrawals Through 2000 and 2008 Bear Markets

I'm working on a spreadsheet and will have some results a little later based on a single withdrawal on June 30 of each year. It looks like the results will vary depending on the specific withdrawal dates. I extracted growth of $10K data from the Morningstar chart. Look forward to seeing your spread...
by 1210sda
Mon Jul 07, 2014 8:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% Withdrawals Through 2000 and 2008 Bear Markets
Replies: 26
Views: 3316

Re: The Millionaire Next Door: Are You One?

Then I recommend a re-read - this neighbor I speak about is retired, not only does he own 2 benz's and a Cadillac, but he's made very costly capital improvements to his home over the last 5 years (I know because I've seen the workmen come and go and the home looks much better) and travels to far aw...
by 1210sda
Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:17 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Millionaire Next Door: Are You One?
Replies: 187
Views: 22099

Re: The Millionaire Next Door: Are You One?

Not totally reliable, but if the said neighbor explicitly tells you they were given a gaggle of stock options in their company and you know the stock has appreciated considerably - well that is one indicator. The other indicator is vacation travel to places that cost $$$. Owning a Benz outright is ...
by 1210sda
Mon Jun 30, 2014 3:17 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Millionaire Next Door: Are You One?
Replies: 187
Views: 22099

Re: The Millionaire Next Door: Are You One?

To be the counterpoint, once you've won the game and you have a plethora of money, if you don't spend it your wasting it. You only have one life to live and you should spend your money accordingly on the things that you will enjoy possibly like traveling, a New house etc etc (sigh)If only we knew h...
by 1210sda
Mon Jun 30, 2014 3:11 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Millionaire Next Door: Are You One?
Replies: 187
Views: 22099

Re: The Millionaire Next Door: Are You One?

Most folks I know do not make their net worth public knowledge. All too often we extrapolate their net worth from their possessions (car, house, jewelry, etc). This can lead to a lot of false readings. When my kids were growing up, I would tell them....when a person has a big house or a fancy car, t...
by 1210sda
Mon Jun 30, 2014 7:54 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Millionaire Next Door: Are You One?
Replies: 187
Views: 22099

Re: Why don't we like Dave Ramesy's investment advice

I cringe when I hear DR talk about investing in "a good growth mutual fund that returns 12%+ per year, every year". It's real easy to state...... just invest in a "good" growth mutual fund. I wonder how DR defines "Good". (History? :annoyed ; Morningstar Stars? :annoye...
by 1210sda
Mon Jun 16, 2014 12:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't we like Dave Ramesy's investment advice
Replies: 50
Views: 4997

Re: With no children, who will take care of my finances?

As I approach older age (now I'm 61) I'm asking myself this. Are there others with the same question? Thanks to the OP for starting this thread. This is a topic which needs to be explored further. Even with children, they may not be able or willing to handle it. I shudder at the thought of the &quo...
by 1210sda
Sun Jun 15, 2014 8:54 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: With no children, who will take care of my finances?
Replies: 53
Views: 5699

Re: Is a 2% withdrawal rate bulletproof ?

surfstar wrote:It is bulletproof as long as your returns are above 2% :D


and inflation doesn't explode............

1210
by 1210sda
Thu Jun 12, 2014 3:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is a 2% withdrawal rate bulletproof ?
Replies: 48
Views: 3946

Re: The 2 comma paradox

LadyIJ, I assume you are referring to me. Can you please show me where I ever said the part underlined in your statement. I only said what I could save in a year not make and never did refer to "Average Joes". Starbux, this is getting to be a very long thread (137+ posts) so it's easy to ...
by 1210sda
Thu Jun 12, 2014 8:47 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The 2 comma paradox
Replies: 155
Views: 14192

Re: Budget for charitable giving

Two things that are important to me:

1. Focus on giving "Locally"
2. Use http://www.charitynavigator.org to help me identify those organizations that give the largest
proportion of their donations to their programs and less to admin and fund raising.

1210
by 1210sda
Wed Jun 11, 2014 11:14 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Budget for charitable giving
Replies: 39
Views: 2591

Re: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns [1.4% for 60/40

Jack Bogle has said: one of his first lessons was....."nobody knows nothing".

Amen

1210
by 1210sda
Mon Jun 09, 2014 10:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns [1.4% for 60/40]
Replies: 207
Views: 17090

Re: In what ways does a retired person's portfolio differ?

In retirement I see no reason not to have an emergency fund Before I retired, my main interest in having an emergency fund was in case I lost my job. The 6 months to 1 year fund would provide for my family while I looked for another job. So, I agree, I don't need an emergency fund in retirement for...
by 1210sda
Fri Jun 06, 2014 3:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In what ways does a retired person's portfolio differ?
Replies: 88
Views: 7970

Re: Retiring into the poor house in 13 yrs?

Have you considered employing the services of a fee-only CFP? Just to do a basic financial plan.

I don't know how much it'll cost you, but probably not much more than a grand.

This might save you a ton of agony.

1210
by 1210sda
Fri May 30, 2014 12:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring into the poor house in 13 yrs?
Replies: 110
Views: 9269

Re: Happy Anniversary! [From Vanguard to Clients]

Hey, I bought my first shares in the "Vanguard Index Trust 500 Portfolio" on July 9, 1986 . Just two more years and I'll get my 30th anniversary card....somehow they forgot my 20th anniversary. The statements were quite different back then. They used to include your SS# on your statement.....
by 1210sda
Thu May 29, 2014 10:33 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Happy Anniversary! [From Vanguard to Clients]
Replies: 44
Views: 3744

Re: Can we defend a 4% Safe Withdrawal Rate?

Blindly following a fixed percentage can give results that don't make any sense. Consider: Alan and Bob each have 2M dollars. They both have a 50/50 allocation. Alan retires in 2007 and withdraws 80K the first year and adjusts for inflation thereafter. Bob retires in 2008, but his portfolio has dro...
by 1210sda
Tue May 27, 2014 12:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can we defend a 4% Safe Withdrawal Rate?
Replies: 62
Views: 5470

Re: The Three Fund Portfolio

Namashkar, Another bit of guidance that Vanguard provides is the allocation of it's Life Strategy funds. For example, the Life Strategy Moderate Growth fund is essentially the classic 60/40 portfolio but with the following refinements. 1. Vanguard Total Stk Mkt Index Fund............. 42% 2. Vanguar...
by 1210sda
Sun May 25, 2014 8:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three Fund Portfolio
Replies: 816
Views: 315254

Re: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2014!

If you retire on December 31, does that make you the "Class of Current Year"" or " Class of Next Year" ?? :? :happy

1210
by 1210sda
Wed May 21, 2014 8:59 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2014!
Replies: 154
Views: 13514

Re: Social Security at 62? Let’s Run the Numbers

Wow, I'm really surprised by the range of answers. Previously, I thought the vast majority of BH's waited until age 70. Appears that a fair number do it before. BTW, my wife will start taking SS at 66 (soon) based on her spousal benefit (50% of my PIA). At age 70, she will compare her own benefit (w...
by 1210sda
Tue May 20, 2014 8:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Social Security at 62? Let’s Run the Numbers
Replies: 101
Views: 7376

Re: Muni component in Life Strategy funds

[Fortunately you have an incorrect statement here. The dividends from Life Strategy Moderate Growth are 52 (or 58 % - I just checked but forgot !!) qualified. Hi Calm, I was referring to the dividends that are generated by the fixed income portion of the LS MG fund. I'm aware of the QDI's generated...
by 1210sda
Mon May 19, 2014 3:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Muni component in Life Strategy funds
Replies: 14
Views: 872

Re: Muni component in Life Strategy funds

All I'm saying is that if all we had was our tax advantaged accounts (2 Trad Ira's, and 1 Roth), it would be very simple. I would put all the money in each account into the Life Strategy Mod Growth fund and we would have a 60/40 portfolio not only in each account, but in the combination of the three...
by 1210sda
Mon May 19, 2014 2:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Muni component in Life Strategy funds
Replies: 14
Views: 872

Re: Muni component in Life Strategy funds

Thank you Kenner. What I'm hoping is that there are enough investors out there who share my views and therefore motivate Vanguard to make this change. We have four accounts at Vanguard....two trad IRA's, one roth and a taxable account. Being able to use one or two accounts (four positions) would gre...
by 1210sda
Mon May 19, 2014 12:13 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Muni component in Life Strategy funds
Replies: 14
Views: 872

Muni component in Life Strategy funds

Having VWITX (Vanguard Intermediate Term Tax Exempt) as the fixed income portion of the Life Strategy funds makes a lot of sense to me, for taxable accounts. If one wanted to have (almost) identical asset allocations across both tax advantaged and taxable accounts, they would not be penalized with t...
by 1210sda
Mon May 19, 2014 11:42 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Muni component in Life Strategy funds
Replies: 14
Views: 872

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Longinvest,

Here's my quick feedback.

On the "withdrawals" chart, there is no legend for the red line. The same is true for the "withdrawal statistics" chart.

On the "portfolio balance" chart, the blue line legend only shows B..

Small stuff, OK

1210
by 1210sda
Sat May 17, 2014 4:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 454
Views: 48197

Re: Getting Your Retirement Right

Good article. thanks for posting

1210
by 1210sda
Tue May 13, 2014 2:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Getting Your Retirement Right
Replies: 36
Views: 5203

Re: 401k to an IRA or Roth

Thanks DSInvestor. I'll modify my subject to exclude the Roth, and focus just on the traditional IRA. My interest lies in knowing why any participant would stay with his/her employers inferior plan when a Vanguard IRA is available. Is it fear of appearing disloyal to the employer? Might it be some p...
by 1210sda
Mon May 12, 2014 11:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401k to an IRA
Replies: 11
Views: 572

401k to an IRA

Recent posts have talked about how unattractive some employer 401k plans are. Too expensive, not enough selection, etc. With that in mind, what, if any, are the downsides of transferring your 401k to an individual IRA at Vanguard or other low cost fund company? Obviously, you have to comply with emp...
by 1210sda
Mon May 12, 2014 11:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401k to an IRA
Replies: 11
Views: 572

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Longinvest, I'm using Excel. I really like using Excel, therefore, I'll just accept the charts as they are. BTW, for the umpteenth time :happy .....thanks a lot for all your work. I'm sure this spreadsheet will help a lot of folks in their retirement planning. I do suspect that you really enjoy doin...
by 1210sda
Sun May 11, 2014 1:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 454
Views: 48197

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Just a note: I have included a "Withdrawal Statistics (for every start year)" chart to make it easier to find such worst years without having to manually test every year. The actual lowest withdrawal amount should also show in the "Statistics for All Start Years" (previously &qu...
by 1210sda
Sun May 11, 2014 12:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 454
Views: 48197

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

I went through the Shiller data (all 142 yrs) and found that 1929 was the start year (for a 35 year horizon) that provided the lowest total amount of withdrawals. I plugged in "Shiller" and "1929" in the drop down boxes then use the Excel auto sum feature to find the total amount...
by 1210sda
Sun May 11, 2014 12:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 454
Views: 48197

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Trying to decide on which variables to use: Shiller or Simba.....and what to use as a "start year". Simba use the funds in the three fund portfolio which I use, but it's only for 42 years while Shiller is for 142 years. Using an early start year, brings the Great Depression into play. Usin...
by 1210sda
Sat May 10, 2014 8:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 454
Views: 48197

Re: "The Simplest Wealth Plan Ever"

I thought this was only available on kindle....

When I went to Taylor's link, "The Simplest Wealth Plan Ever", and then the link within the article "If You Can, How Millennials Can Get Rich Slowly", I was able to print a 16 page hard copy version. Huh ??

1210
by 1210sda
Wed May 07, 2014 8:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Simplest Wealth Plan Ever"
Replies: 26
Views: 4659

Re: Please explain a 3% SWR to me

I agree. Blindly following a percentage based withdrawal is not recommended, but VPW is a much better starting point (or rule of thumb) than the typical SWR discussed every day on this forum. No withdrawal scheme can replace a life-time garanteed inflation-adjusted annuity like Social Security, but...
by 1210sda
Thu Apr 24, 2014 12:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please explain a 3% SWR to me
Replies: 92
Views: 22594

Re: Some sense of having enough

I retired at the end of 2001 (12/31/2001) My very first year full year of retirement the sp500 was down over 22%. After that, from 2003 thru 2007, the mkt performed very nicely. 2007 started to slow down (5.5%) and then went to hell in a handbasket in 2008 (-37.00% ). From then until now, with the p...
by 1210sda
Wed Apr 23, 2014 3:20 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Some sense of having enough
Replies: 13
Views: 2197

Re: *poor* Bogleheads

So much depends on where you live.

$100,000 in Stamford, CT puts you in the 50% level

$100,000 in rural Mississippi puts you in the top 10%.

To be in the top 10% in Stamford requires close to $400,000.

1210 :happy
by 1210sda
Fri Apr 18, 2014 10:16 am
 
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: *poor* Bogleheads
Replies: 78
Views: 12875

Re: The slackening...

There is a Chinese saying which goes something like: "Wealth doesn't get past 3 generations." Very interesting. I'm trying to decide what portion of our estate goes to our kids and what goes to charitable causes. Perhaps there is some way to motivate our children to become successful on t...
by 1210sda
Tue Apr 15, 2014 8:28 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The slackening...
Replies: 61
Views: 7894

Re: The market portfolio vs. value tilts

That brings about another question I have been pondering. If the small and value premium is a risk story and you are trying to increase returns by taking on more risk, why not just increase your equity percentage in a market portfolio? If the market portfolio is the most efficient and the equity ri...
by 1210sda
Mon Apr 14, 2014 8:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The market portfolio vs. value tilts
Replies: 66
Views: 4279

Re: The slackening...

There is a Chinese saying which goes something like: "Wealth doesn't get past 3 generations." Very interesting. I'm trying to decide what portion of our estate goes to our kids and what goes to charitable causes. Perhaps there is some way to motivate our children to become successful on t...
by 1210sda
Sun Apr 13, 2014 2:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The slackening...
Replies: 61
Views: 7894

Re: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain

Thanks again, DBR. Maybe instead of "drain", it could be called "differential" or some such term. I think it's important to know the difference between the two calculations so that when it's misused by some (Ramsey, for example) we won't be as easily misled....at least that's my ...
by 1210sda
Sat Apr 05, 2014 1:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain
Replies: 39
Views: 2782

Re: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain

As an example, you buy shares in Joe's Donuts. Sales double and the stock price rises to reflect that. Day to day volatility, or "variance drain" has no bearing on this. It doesn't change the market value of the company. Let's say stock price goes from $100 to $200 to reflect the sales do...
by 1210sda
Sat Apr 05, 2014 12:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain
Replies: 39
Views: 2782

Re: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain

Thank you, DBR. As Barry Barnitz showed in his blog post, the measure of Variance Drain is Arithmetic Return minus Compound Return (although I believe he had it reversed in the blog...Compound Return minus Arithmetic Return...:-) ). My question is, How is "sequence of return" quantified ? ...
by 1210sda
Fri Apr 04, 2014 10:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain
Replies: 39
Views: 2782
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